Queen’s Park Today – Daily Report December 11, 2018

Quotation of the day

“It’s a free country, they can claim whatever they want.”

Budget watchdog Peter Weltman stands by his calculation that ’s deficit will be ​ ​ $12.3 billion this year — a figure $2.2 billion lower than what the Tories claim.

Today at Queen’s Park

On the schedule The House is recessed until February 19.

Budget watchdog calls into question Tories’ deficit, savings Financial Accountability Officer Peter Weltman says Ontario’s books aren’t in quite as rough ​ ​ shape as the Tories claim.

Weltman released his fall fiscal review Monday, which projects a $12.3 billion deficit for fiscal ​ ​ 2018-19, much lower than the $14.5 billion the Ford government is forecasting. The government’s figure includes $1 billion in contingency cash, which the FAO did not include in its analysis. The remaining $1.2 billion discrepancy is due in large part to the government having a “more pessimistic” projection of tax revenue than the FAO.

FAO economist David West acknowledged there is “uncertainty” when forecasting for tax ​ ​ revenue but “we think the better guess is our number.”

Weltman shed light on the $3.2 billion in savings and efficiencies the PCs say they have already found since taking office. Weltman’s report says the government has only found $1.7 billion in new savings, due mostly to cancelling Liberal-era programs. The other $1.4 billion isn’t new but comes from year-end savings, money allocated to ministries that doesn’t get spent — which the Liberals had already booked in the March Budget.

Following the Tories’ independent fiscal inquiry in September, Finance Minister ​ removed the Liberals’ $1.4 billion savings projection from the new government’s final tally, saying at the time “it wasn’t real.” The number is now back on the books, the FAO noted.

Asked if the Tories are inflating the province’s deficit or savings projections, Weltman quipped, “It’s a free country, they can claim whatever they want.”

“These year-end savings aren’t necessarily something nefarious that are cooked up behind the scenes,” he said, noting it’s common for governments to include them because ministries can’t over-spend what they’ve been allocated in a year.

“We don’t pass judgement on what they inflate or deflate,” Weltman said. “They’ve picked the number … Our job is to provide an alternative … independent of the government and let people draw their own conclusions.”

While Weltman takes a rosier view of Ontario’s finances than the Tories, the fiscal outlook is pretty bleak.

If there are no policy changes, Weltman’s crystal ball shows the deficit ballooning to over $16 billion by 2022-23. Balancing the books by the 2022 election would require reining in program spending at a pace not seen since the Mike Harris era. ​ ​

“The Ontario government would need to limit the growth in total program spending to 1.2 per cent per year on average from 2019-20 to 2022-23,” the report states.

In other words, program spending per person would have to be cut by $850 within four years. Ontario currently spends just over $10,000 per person.

The FAO’s deficit projection is more than triple what it was the year before and the largest since 2011-12. (The Liberals predicted a $6.7 billion deficit this year. The Tories claimed the $14.5 billion deficit in the Fall Economic Statement after accepting the auditor general’s accounting practices and conducting a line-by-line review and financial inquiry.)

Fedeli stood by his figures. “We have already taken steps by finding more than $3.2 billion ​ dollars in efficiencies and savings, we still have more work to do. The previous government recklessly spent taxpayer dollars and we must continue to work towards finding efficiencies in order to return to balance in a responsible, pragmatic way,” the minister said in a statement.

NDP finance critic said the Tories are “manufacturing a crisis to justify deep, deep ​ ​ cuts to the things we need and deserve, like health care, repairs to our children’s schools and ​ social services.”

Liberal finance critic said Ontario doesn’t have a “fair indication” of the real ​ ​ numbers, noting that provincial controller Cindy Veinot resigned in September after refusing to ​ ​ sign off on the Tories’ version.

“This province deserves a government able to stand up and be clear about their fiscal plans for ​ the province. This report warns of drastic reductions in program spending, leaving Ontarians to wonder where the axe will fall,” Hunter added.

Green Party Leader said the PCs “overstated” their savings and the deficit and ​ ​ accused them of “playing political games” with Ontario’s finances — something the past Liberal rulers have also been charged with.

“It was wrong for the previous government to play political games with the budget. It is wrong for the Ford government do it only a few months into their mandate. Playing politics with budgets has real world consequences and undermines trust and confidence in government,” Schreiner said.

Today’s events

December 11 at 7:30 a.m. – ​ Environment Minister Rod Phillips will talk about the government’s new climate plan at an ​ ​ Ontario Energy Association event downtown. Greenpeace Canada, which has criticized the PC plan, will hold a demonstration outside.

December 11 at 11:15 a.m. – Burlington ​ Premier , Health Minister and Infrastructure Minister Monte ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ McNaughton will cut the ribbon at the opening of new facilities at the Joseph Brant Hospital. ​

Topics of conversation

● Equalization was a hot topic at Monday’s finance ministers’ meeting in . For the first time in a decade Ontario will not be getting the federal transfer payments, something Finance Minister Vic Fedeli wants re-assessed. ​ ​ ​ ○ While attending a meeting of his fellow finance ministers in Ottawa Monday, Fedeli said he knew Ontario would not qualify for the federal transfer next year (it has technically not been a “have-not” province since 2016-17 but received nearly $1 billion this year nonetheless). However, the fact the province is doling out $12.9 billion more to the feds than it receives in federal spending means both he and Premier Doug Ford want the transfer system reviewed. ​ ​

○ Fedeli said he also wrote to Finance Minister Bill Morneau last week asking for ​ ​ more federal funding for French-language services. Morneau reiterated Monday that the federal government will fund a French-language university in Ontario once the province comes up with a plan.

● Toronto Mayor John Tory wants more power to decide where pot shops should go. ​ ​ ​ Cannabis was a burning topic during back-to-back one-on-one meetings Premier Doug ​ Ford held with other Ontario mayors Monday, where Ford “restated his commitment to ​ public health, public safety and protecting Ontario’s youth,” the government said in a release. The premier and mayors also talked transportation, housing and “ways to deliver better services” and “get more money back in the taxpayers’ pockets.” ○ Ford hosted the mayors of Guelph, Kawartha Lakes, London, Mississauga, Oro-Medonte, Ottawa and Windsor.

● The Ontario Human Rights Commission released its findings so far on racial profiling by ​ ​ Toronto police. The report shows Black people are “grossly overrepresented” in cases where police use force resulting in injury or death, and are 20 times more likely to die in a police shooting than white people. The commission’s sobering interim report parsed police data that is rarely made public between 2010 and 2017 and is part of a larger probe into racial discrimination in Toronto. Using data from the SIU (the oversight agency that investigates when a cop is involved in cases of serious injury, death or sexual assault), the OHRC suggests Black people have violent altercations disproportionate to their representation in population. The report states that 25 per cent of SIU investigations from 2013 to 2017 involved Black people, even though they account for just under nine per cent of Toronto’s residents. They also accounted for 36 per cent of police shootings and nearly 30 per cent of use-of-force cases. “Over-representation of Black civilians appeared to increase with the seriousness of police conduct,” the report says. ○ Commissioner Renu Mandhane said the data is “disturbing” and “demand[s] an ​ ​ explanation.” ○ The Toronto police force and civilian board accepted the recommendations in the report but said “some may raise questions about the approach, methodology and ​ ​ statistical basis” to ensure “the fullest and fairest analysis and accounting.” ○ Toronto Mayor John Tory echoed the sentiment. “Much work has been done ​ ​ over the last few years to improve the police service's policies and procedures that contribute to discrimination and racial profiling. But much more remains to be done especially in a city which is proud to consider itself a model when it comes to eradicating discrimination and racism of all kinds,” he said in a statement. Tory sits on the police services board.

● Alberta’s United Conservative Party will get to intervene alongside Ontario in ​ ​ Saskatchewan’s legal challenge of the federal carbon tax despite resistance from the

federal Department of Justice, which said last week the Alberta opposition party’s reference case is “both political and speculative.” ● ICYMI the Toronto Sun’s Joe Warmington covered the premier’s controversial keynote ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ at a Christmas concert thrown by evangelist Charles McVety. The NDP decried the ​ ​ premier’s decision to attend in light of homophobic comments made by McVety, a staunch opponent to the updated sex-ed curriculum. ○ Ford boasted to the crowd that the PC government is “bringing change” and “reforming” the education system. “We’re listening to the parents out there for the first time ever,” the premier said, to big applause. PC MPPs and ​ ​ were also there. ​ ○ Public consultation for the far-reaching curriculum review closes December 15.

Appointments and employments ● Jordan Ray is the new organization and communications lead for the OLP. According to ​ ​ a statement from party president Brian Johns, Ray most recently worked for ex-Liberal ​ ​ MPP , who lost his Centre seat to PC MPP in June. ​ ​ ​ ​

News releases — governmental Ministry of Health and Long-term Care ● Health Minister Christine Elliott was at a palliative care facility in Burlington to ​ ​ announce funding for 193 hospice beds across Ontario, which she said “will provide people with end-of-life care and support in a more comfortable setting.” The government is earmarking $33.6 million to build the beds and will provide $20.3 million annually to operate them once they’re available. ○ The Ontario Medical Association’s chair of palliative care praised the decision but said “we still need to do more.” ○ “Without more doctors and training of health care providers in the palliative approach to care, there will be a crisis in our hospitals,” Dr. Bill Splinter said in a ​ ​ ​ ​ statement.

Ministry of Infrastructure ● Ontario Infrastructure Minister Monte McNaughton and Tourism Minister Michael ​ ​ ​ Tibollo held a newser alongside the federal government to re-announce funding for the ​ Massey Hall revamp. They launched phase two of the makeover for Toronto’s iconic music venue and have committed $30 million from the provincial purse. Ottawa is matching the funds. Doors are expected to open again in 2020. McNaughton rattled off a list of choice heavyweight performers to grace Massey’s stage — the Tragically Hip, Gordon Lightfoot and Blue Rodeo, to name a few.

Queen's Park Today is written by Sabrina Nanji, reporting from the Queen's Park press gallery.

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