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Assessing the Social and Economic Value of Germplasm and Crop Improvement As a Climate Change Adaptation Strategy: Samoa and Vanuatu Case Studies

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Assessing the Social and Economic Value of Germplasm and Crop Improvement As a Climate Change Adaptation Strategy: Samoa and Vanuatu Case Studies Assessing the social and economic value of germplasm and crop improvement as a climate change adaptation strategy: Samoa and Vanuatu case studies Andrew McGregor with Peter Kaoh, Laisene Tuioti Mariner, Padma Narsey Lal and Mary Taylor Report prepared for the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) November 2011 1 © Commonwealth of Australia 2012 ISBN 978-1-922003-95-9 This report was supported by funding from the Australian Government under the Pacific Australia Climate Change Science and Adaptation Planning (PACCSAP) program. The material in this publication is provided for general information only, and on the understanding that the Australian Government is not providing professional advice. Before any action or decision is taken on the basis of this material the reader should obtain appropriate independent professional advice. Citation: McGregor, A. with Peter Kaoh, Laisene Tuioti Mariner, Padma Narsey Lal and Mary Taylor (2011). ‘Assessing the social and economic value of germplasm and crop improvement as a climate change adaptation strategy: Samoa and Vanuatu case studies’. A background case study prepared for IUCN’s report, Climate Change Adaptation in the Pacific: Making Informed Choices, prepared for the Australian Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency (DCCEE), IUCN, Suva, Fiji. Available from: IUCN Regional Office for Oceania Private Mail Bag 5 Ma’afu Street, Suva Republic of Fiji Islands Ph: +679 3319084, Fax: +679 3100128 www.iucn.org/oceania 2 Contents 1. The overview report .............................................................................................. 1 Reactive response: Taro leaf blight resistant crop improvement .................................................................. 2 Management responses................................................................................................................... 2 Ex-post estimation of economic net benefits of TLB resistant crop improvement as a Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) strategy ................................................................................................. 3 Investing in foundational institutional capacity ................................................................................. 5 Proactive response: strengthening flexible and sustainable capacity in Vanuatu ........................................ 5 Social and economic assessment .................................................................................................... 6 No regrets strategy building on natural risk minimisation strategy .................................................. 6 Germplasm conservation and crop improvement programmes in Samoa and Vanuatu: lessons for strengthening CCA for food security ............................................................................................................. 7 Key Findings .................................................................................................................................... 7 Identified projects requiring substantial support ........................................................................................... 8 2. Climate change and Pacific island agriculture and food security .......................... 9 Traditional Pacific island crops and cropping systems ................................................................................. 9 Coping with risk and disasters ......................................................................................................... 9 The underlying vulnerability of traditional Pacific island crops ........................................................ 9 Trends and extreme climate cycles in the Pacific island region ................................................................. 10 Climate trends ................................................................................................................................ 10 Climate cycles and extremes ......................................................................................................... 17 Implications of climate trends and extremes for Pacific islands agriculture ................................................ 20 Trends in climate (climate change) ................................................................................................ 20 Future ENSO cycles and climate change ...................................................................................... 23 Climate Change adaption strategies for Pacific island Agriculture ................................................ 23 3. Utilizing regional and national germplasm collections as a climate change adaptation strategy: The case study of taro leaf blight in Samoa .................................. 24 Case study background .............................................................................................................................. 24 Taro leaf blight (Phytophthora colocasiae): an example of a biological disaster likely to increase with climate change ........................................................................................................................ 24 TLB in the Pacific islands ............................................................................................................... 27 TLB in Samoa ................................................................................................................................ 29 The food security and economic impact of taro leaf blight in Samoa ......................................................... 30 Impact of domestic consumption ................................................................................................... 30 Impact on taro exports ................................................................................................................... 34 Assessing the overall total impact of taro leaf blight ...................................................................... 36 The public policy and investment response to TLB .................................................................................... 38 Short-term adaptation response with existing taro varieties .......................................................... 38 A longer term response through introducing, selecting and breeding TLB tolerant and resistant varieties .......................................................................................................................................... 39 3 A breeding programme to broaden the taro gene pool: complementary regional and national programme ..................................................................................................................................... 40 Quantifying the cost of TLB for Samoa ....................................................................................................... 49 Quantifying the benefits and costs of the Samoan taro germplasm development programme .................. 53 The benefits to date ....................................................................................................................... 53 Future expected benefits................................................................................................................ 53 The cost of the taro germplasm development programme ............................................................ 56 Comparing programme benefits with programme costs ................................................................ 59 Conclusions and recommendations ............................................................................................................ 61 4. Broadening the genetic base of root crops in Vanuatu: a proactive climate change adaptation strategy ........................................................................................... 62 Case study background .............................................................................................................................. 62 The food security of western Melanesia and the threat of climate change .................................... 62 Vanuatu’s traditional cropping systems and disaster coping mechanisms .................................... 63 Public investment in drought and disease tolerant root crop cultivars in Vanuatu ..................................... 67 Germplasm surveys and ex-situ (off-farm) germplasm collections in Vanuatu ............................. 67 Moving from ex-situ germplasm conservation to dynamic in-situ (on-farm) conservation ............. 68 An outline for a Vanuatu root crop germplasm consolidation and distribution project ................................ 83 Project objective ............................................................................................................................. 83 Management .................................................................................................................................. 83 Duration and phasing ..................................................................................................................... 84 Staffing ........................................................................................................................................... 84 Indicative budget line items ............................................................................................................ 84 Comparing the benefits with costs ................................................................................................. 86 Quantifying the impact of future biological disasters in Vanuatu ..................................................
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