10-604 Tropical Cyclone Names and Definitions
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A Study of Synoptic-Scale Tornado Regimes
Garner, J. M., 2013: A study of synoptic-scale tornado regimes. Electronic J. Severe Storms Meteor., 8 (3), 1–25. A Study of Synoptic-Scale Tornado Regimes JONATHAN M. GARNER NOAA/NWS/Storm Prediction Center, Norman, OK (Submitted 21 November 2012; in final form 06 August 2013) ABSTRACT The significant tornado parameter (STP) has been used by severe-thunderstorm forecasters since 2003 to identify environments favoring development of strong to violent tornadoes. The STP and its individual components of mixed-layer (ML) CAPE, 0–6-km bulk wind difference (BWD), 0–1-km storm-relative helicity (SRH), and ML lifted condensation level (LCL) have been calculated here using archived surface objective analysis data, and then examined during the period 2003−2010 over the central and eastern United States. These components then were compared and contrasted in order to distinguish between environmental characteristics analyzed for three different synoptic-cyclone regimes that produced significantly tornadic supercells: cold fronts, warm fronts, and drylines. Results show that MLCAPE contributes strongly to the dryline significant-tornado environment, while it was less pronounced in cold- frontal significant-tornado regimes. The 0–6-km BWD was found to contribute equally to all three significant tornado regimes, while 0–1-km SRH more strongly contributed to the cold-frontal significant- tornado environment than for the warm-frontal and dryline regimes. –––––––––––––––––––––––– 1. Background and motivation As detailed in Hobbs et al. (1996), synoptic- scale cyclones that foster tornado development Parameter-based and pattern-recognition evolve with time as they emerge over the central forecast techniques have been essential and eastern contiguous United States (hereafter, components of anticipating tornadoes in the CONUS). -
Subtropical Storms in the South Atlantic Basin and Their Correlation with Australian East-Coast Cyclones
2B.5 SUBTROPICAL STORMS IN THE SOUTH ATLANTIC BASIN AND THEIR CORRELATION WITH AUSTRALIAN EAST-COAST CYCLONES Aviva J. Braun* The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania 1. INTRODUCTION With the exception of warmer SST in the Tasman Sea region (0°−60°S, 25°E−170°W), the climate associated with South Atlantic ST In March 2004, a subtropical storm formed off is very similar to that associated with the coast of Brazil leading to the formation of Australian east-coast cyclones (ECC). A Hurricane Catarina. This was the first coastal mountain range lies along the east documented hurricane to ever occur in the coast of each continent: the Great Dividing South Atlantic basin. It is also the storm that Range in Australia (Fig. 1) and the Serra da has made us reconsider why tropical storms Mantiqueira in the Brazilian Highlands (Fig. 2). (TS) have never been observed in this basin The East Australia Current transports warm, although they regularly form in every other tropical water poleward in the Tasman Sea tropical ocean basin. In fact, every other basin predominantly through transient warm eddies in the world regularly sees tropical storms (Holland et al. 1987), providing a zonal except the South Atlantic. So why is the South temperature gradient important to creating a Atlantic so different? The latitudes in which TS baroclinic environment essential for ST would normally form is subject to 850-200 hPa formation. climatological shears that are far too strong for pure tropical storms (Pezza and Simmonds 2. METHODOLOGY 2006). However, subtropical storms (ST), as defined by Guishard (2006), can form in such a. -
Tornado Safety Q & A
TORNADO SAFETY Q & A The Prosper Fire Department Office of Emergency Management’s highest priority is ensuring the safety of all Prosper residents during a state of emergency. A tornado is one of the most violent storms that can rip through an area, striking quickly with little to no warning at all. Because the aftermath of a tornado can be devastating, preparing ahead of time is the best way to ensure you and your family’s safety. Please read the following questions about tornado safety, answered by Prosper Emergency Management Coordinator Kent Bauer. Q: During s evere weather, what does the Prosper Fire Department do? A: We monitor the weather alerts sent out by the National Weather Service. Because we are not meteorologists, we do not interpret any sort of storms or any sort of warnings. Instead, we pass along the information we receive from the National Weather Service to our residents through social media, storm sirens and Smart911 Rave weather warnings. Q: What does a Tornado Watch mean? A: Tornadoes are possible. Remain alert for approaching storms. Watch the sky and stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, commercial radio or television for information. Q: What does a Tornado Warning mean? A: A tornado has been sighted or indicated by weather radar and you need to take shelter immediately. Q: What is the reason for setting off the Outdoor Storm Sirens? A: To alert those who are outdoors that there is a tornado or another major storm event headed Prosper’s way, so seek shelter immediately. I f you are outside and you hear the sirens go off, do not call 9-1-1 to ask questions about the warning. -
National Weather Service Reference Guide
National Weather Service Reference Guide Purpose of this Document he National Weather Service (NWS) provides many products and services which can be T used by other governmental agencies, Tribal Nations, the private sector, the public and the global community. The data and services provided by the NWS are designed to fulfill us- ers’ needs and provide valuable information in the areas of weather, hydrology and climate. In addition, the NWS has numerous partnerships with private and other government entities. These partnerships help facilitate the mission of the NWS, which is to protect life and prop- erty and enhance the national economy. This document is intended to serve as a reference guide and information manual of the products and services provided by the NWS on a na- tional basis. Editor’s note: Throughout this document, the term ―county‖ will be used to represent counties, parishes, and boroughs. Similarly, ―county warning area‖ will be used to represent the area of responsibility of all of- fices. The local forecast office at Buffalo, New York, January, 1899. The local National Weather Service Office in Tallahassee, FL, present day. 2 Table of Contents Click on description to go directly to the page. 1. What is the National Weather Service?…………………….………………………. 5 Mission Statement 6 Organizational Structure 7 County Warning Areas 8 Weather Forecast Office Staff 10 River Forecast Center Staff 13 NWS Directive System 14 2. Non-Routine Products and Services (watch/warning/advisory descriptions)..…….. 15 Convective Weather 16 Tropical Weather 17 Winter Weather 18 Hydrology 19 Coastal Flood 20 Marine Weather 21 Non-Precipitation 23 Fire Weather 24 Other 25 Statements 25 Other Non-Routine Products 26 Extreme Weather Wording 27 Verification and Performance Goals 28 Impact-Based Decision Support Services 30 Requesting a Spot Fire Weather Forecast 33 Hazardous Materials Emergency Support 34 Interactive Warning Team 37 HazCollect 38 Damage Surveys 40 Storm Data 44 Information Requests 46 3. -
Hurricane Knowledge
Hurricane Knowledge Storm conditions can vary on the intensity, size and even the angle which the tropical cyclone approaches your area, so it is vital you understand what the forecasters and news reporters are telling you. Tropical Depressions are cyclones with winds of 38 mph. Tropical Storms vary in wind speeds from 39-73 mph while Hurricanes have winds 74 mph and greater. Typically, the upper right quadrant of the storm (the center wrapping around the eye) is the most intense portion of the storm. The greatest threats are damaging winds, storm surge and flooding. This is in part why Hurricane Katrina was so catastrophic when bringing up to 28-foot storm surges onto the Louisiana and Mississippi coastlines. A Tropical Storm Watch is when tropical storm conditions are possible in the area. A Hurricane Watch is when hurricane conditions are possible in the area. Watches are issued 48 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical storm force winds. A Tropical Storm Warning is when tropical storm conditions are expected in the area. A Hurricane Warning is when hurricane conditions are expected in the area. Warnings are issued 36 hours in advance of tropical storm force winds. Here are a few more terms used when discussing hurricanes: Eye: Clear, sometimes well-defined center of the storm with calmer conditions. Eye Wall: Surrounding the eye, contains some of the most severe weather of the storm with the highest wind speed and largest precipitation. Rain Bands: Bands coming off the cyclone that produce severe weather conditions such as heavy rain, wind and tornadoes. -
Tropical Weather Discussion
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION • Purpose The Tropical Weather Discussion describes major synoptic weather features and significant areas of disturbed weather in the tropics. The product is intended to provide current weather information for those who need to know the current state of the atmosphere and expected trends to assist them in their decision making. The product gives significant weather features, areas of disturbed weather, expected trends, the meteorological reasoning behind the forecast, model performance, and in some cases a degree of confidence. • Content The Tropical Weather Discussion is a narrative explaining the current weather conditions across the tropics and the expected short-term changes. The product is divided into four different sections as outline below: 1. SPECIAL FEATURES (event-driven) The special features section includes descriptions of hurricanes, tropical storms, tropical depressions, subtropical cyclones, and any other feature of significance that may develop into a tropical or subtropical cyclone. For active tropical cyclones, this section provides the latest advisory data on the system. Associated middle and upper level interactions as well as significant clouds and convection are discussed with each system. This section is omitted if none of these features is present. 2. TROPICAL WAVES (event-driven) This section provides a description of the strength, position, and movement of all tropical waves analyzed on the surface analysis, from east to west. A brief reason for a wave’s position is usually given, citing surface observations, upper air time sections, satellite imagery, etc. The associated convection is discussed with each tropical wave as well as any potential impacts to landmasses or marine interests. -
Observed Cyclone–Anticyclone Tropopause Vortex Asymmetries
JANUARY 2005 H A K I M A N D CANAVAN 231 Observed Cyclone–Anticyclone Tropopause Vortex Asymmetries GREGORY J. HAKIM AND AMELIA K. CANAVAN University of Washington, Seattle, Washington (Manuscript received 30 September 2003, in final form 28 June 2004) ABSTRACT Relatively little is known about coherent vortices near the extratropical tropopause, even with regard to basic facts about their frequency of occurrence, longevity, and structure. This study addresses these issues through an objective census of observed tropopause vortices. The authors test a hypothesis regarding vortex-merger asymmetry where cyclone pairs are repelled and anticyclone pairs are attracted by divergent flow due to frontogenesis. Emphasis is placed on arctic vortices, where jet stream influences are weaker, in order to facilitate comparisons with earlier idealized numerical simulations. Results show that arctic cyclones are more numerous, persistent, and stronger than arctic anticyclones. An average of 15 cyclonic vortices and 11 anticyclonic vortices are observed per month, with maximum frequency of occurrence for cyclones (anticyclones) during winter (summer). There are are about 47% more cyclones than anticyclones that survive at least 4 days, and for longer lifetimes, 1-day survival probabilities are nearly constant at 65% for cyclones, and 55% for anticyclones. Mean tropopause potential-temperature amplitude is 13 K for cyclones and 11 K for anticyclones, with cyclones exhibiting a greater tail toward larger values. An analysis of close-proximity vortex pairs reveals divergence between cyclones and convergence be- tween anticyclones. This result agrees qualitatively with previous idealized numerical simulations, although it is unclear to what extent the divergent circulations regulate vortex asymmetries. -
Extratropical Cyclones and Anticyclones
© Jones & Bartlett Learning, LLC. NOT FOR SALE OR DISTRIBUTION Courtesy of Jeff Schmaltz, the MODIS Rapid Response Team at NASA GSFC/NASA Extratropical Cyclones 10 and Anticyclones CHAPTER OUTLINE INTRODUCTION A TIME AND PLACE OF TRAGEDY A LiFE CYCLE OF GROWTH AND DEATH DAY 1: BIRTH OF AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE ■■ Typical Extratropical Cyclone Paths DaY 2: WiTH THE FI TZ ■■ Portrait of the Cyclone as a Young Adult ■■ Cyclones and Fronts: On the Ground ■■ Cyclones and Fronts: In the Sky ■■ Back with the Fitz: A Fateful Course Correction ■■ Cyclones and Jet Streams 298 9781284027372_CH10_0298.indd 298 8/10/13 5:00 PM © Jones & Bartlett Learning, LLC. NOT FOR SALE OR DISTRIBUTION Introduction 299 DaY 3: THE MaTURE CYCLONE ■■ Bittersweet Badge of Adulthood: The Occlusion Process ■■ Hurricane West Wind ■■ One of the Worst . ■■ “Nosedive” DaY 4 (AND BEYOND): DEATH ■■ The Cyclone ■■ The Fitzgerald ■■ The Sailors THE EXTRATROPICAL ANTICYCLONE HIGH PRESSURE, HiGH HEAT: THE DEADLY EUROPEAN HEAT WaVE OF 2003 PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER ■■ Summary ■■ Key Terms ■■ Review Questions ■■ Observation Activities AFTER COMPLETING THIS CHAPTER, YOU SHOULD BE ABLE TO: • Describe the different life-cycle stages in the Norwegian model of the extratropical cyclone, identifying the stages when the cyclone possesses cold, warm, and occluded fronts and life-threatening conditions • Explain the relationship between a surface cyclone and winds at the jet-stream level and how the two interact to intensify the cyclone • Differentiate between extratropical cyclones and anticyclones in terms of their birthplaces, life cycles, relationships to air masses and jet-stream winds, threats to life and property, and their appearance on satellite images INTRODUCTION What do you see in the diagram to the right: a vase or two faces? This classic psychology experiment exploits our amazing ability to recognize visual patterns. -
Downloaded 09/24/21 04:27 PM UTC 1512 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW VOLUME 146
MAY 2018 C A V I C C H I A E T A L . 1511 Energetics and Dynamics of Subtropical Australian East Coast Cyclones: Two Contrasting Cases LEONE CAVICCHIA School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia ANDREW DOWDY Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia KEVIN WALSH School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia (Manuscript received 27 October 2017, in final form 13 March 2018) ABSTRACT The subtropical east coast region of Australia is characterized by the frequent occurrence of low pressure systems, known as east coast lows (ECLs). The more intense ECLs can cause severe damage and disruptions to this region. While the term ‘‘east coast low’’ refers to a broad classification of events, it has been argued that different ECLs can have substantial differences in their nature, being dominated by baroclinic and barotropic processes in different degrees. Here we reexamine two well-known historical ECL case studies under this perspective: the Duck storm of March 2001 and the Pasha Bulker storm of June 2007. Exploiting the cyclone phase space analysis to study the storms’ full three-dimensional structure, we show that one storm has features similar to a typical extratropical frontal cyclone, while the other has hybrid tropical–extratropical charac- teristics. Furthermore, we examine the energetics of the atmosphere in a limited area including both systems for the ECL occurrence times, and show that the two cyclones are associated with different signatures in the energy conversion terms. We argue that the systematic use of the phase space and energetics diagnostics can form the basis for a physically based classification of ECLs, which is important to advance the understanding of ECL risk in a changing climate. -
NWS Unified Surface Analysis Manual
Unified Surface Analysis Manual Weather Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center National Hurricane Center Honolulu Forecast Office November 21, 2013 Table of Contents Chapter 1: Surface Analysis – Its History at the Analysis Centers…………….3 Chapter 2: Datasets available for creation of the Unified Analysis………...…..5 Chapter 3: The Unified Surface Analysis and related features.……….……….19 Chapter 4: Creation/Merging of the Unified Surface Analysis………….……..24 Chapter 5: Bibliography………………………………………………….…….30 Appendix A: Unified Graphics Legend showing Ocean Center symbols.….…33 2 Chapter 1: Surface Analysis – Its History at the Analysis Centers 1. INTRODUCTION Since 1942, surface analyses produced by several different offices within the U.S. Weather Bureau (USWB) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA’s) National Weather Service (NWS) were generally based on the Norwegian Cyclone Model (Bjerknes 1919) over land, and in recent decades, the Shapiro-Keyser Model over the mid-latitudes of the ocean. The graphic below shows a typical evolution according to both models of cyclone development. Conceptual models of cyclone evolution showing lower-tropospheric (e.g., 850-hPa) geopotential height and fronts (top), and lower-tropospheric potential temperature (bottom). (a) Norwegian cyclone model: (I) incipient frontal cyclone, (II) and (III) narrowing warm sector, (IV) occlusion; (b) Shapiro–Keyser cyclone model: (I) incipient frontal cyclone, (II) frontal fracture, (III) frontal T-bone and bent-back front, (IV) frontal T-bone and warm seclusion. Panel (b) is adapted from Shapiro and Keyser (1990) , their FIG. 10.27 ) to enhance the zonal elongation of the cyclone and fronts and to reflect the continued existence of the frontal T-bone in stage IV. -
The Asian Monsoon in the Superparameterized CCSM and Its Relationship to Tropical Wave Activity
5134 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE VOLUME 24 The Asian Monsoon in the Superparameterized CCSM and Its Relationship to Tropical Wave Activity CHARLOTTE A. DEMOTT Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado CRISTIANA STAN Center for Ocean–Land–Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, Maryland DAVID A. RANDALL Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado JAMES L. KINTER III Center for Ocean–Land–Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, Maryland, and Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Earth Sciences, George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia MARAT KHAIROUTDINOV School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, New York (Manuscript received 15 November 2010, in final form 7 March 2011) ABSTRACT Three general circulation models (GCMs) are used to analyze the impacts of air–sea coupling and super- parameterized (SP) convection on the Asian summer monsoon: Community Climate System Model (CCSM) (coupled, conventional convection), SP Community Atmosphere Model (SP-CAM) (uncoupled, SP con- vection), and SP-CCSM (coupled, SP). In SP-CCSM, coupling improves the basic-state climate relative to SP- CAM and reduces excessive tropical variability in SP-CAM. Adding SP improves tropical variability, the simulation of easterly zonal shear over the Indian and western Pacific Oceans, and increases negative sea surface temperature (SST) biases in that region. SP-CCSM is the only model to reasonably simulate the eastward-, westward-, and northward-propagating components of the Asian monsoon. CCSM and SP-CCSM mimic the observed phasing of northward- propagating intraseasonal oscillation (NPISO), SST, precipitation, and surface stress anomalies, while SP-CAM is limited in this regard. SP-CCSM produces a variety of tropical waves with spectral characteristics similar to those in observations. -
Meteorology – Lecture 19
Meteorology – Lecture 19 Robert Fovell [email protected] 1 Important notes • These slides show some figures and videos prepared by Robert G. Fovell (RGF) for his “Meteorology” course, published by The Great Courses (TGC). Unless otherwise identified, they were created by RGF. • In some cases, the figures employed in the course video are different from what I present here, but these were the figures I provided to TGC at the time the course was taped. • These figures are intended to supplement the videos, in order to facilitate understanding of the concepts discussed in the course. These slide shows cannot, and are not intended to, replace the course itself and are not expected to be understandable in isolation. • Accordingly, these presentations do not represent a summary of each lecture, and neither do they contain each lecture’s full content. 2 Animations linked in the PowerPoint version of these slides may also be found here: http://people.atmos.ucla.edu/fovell/meteo/ 3 Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and drylines 4 This map shows a dryline that formed in Texas during April 2000. The dryline is indicated by unfilled half-circles in orange, pointing at the more moist air. We see little T contrast but very large TD change. Dew points drop from 68F to 29F -- huge decrease in humidity 5 Animation 6 Supercell thunderstorms 7 The secret ingredient for supercells is large amounts of vertical wind shear. CAPE is necessary but sufficient shear is essential. It is shear that makes the difference between an ordinary multicellular thunderstorm and the rotating supercell. The shear implies rotation.