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Deutsche Bank Markets Research Industry Date 5 December 2015 China Internet Asia China Technology Software & Services Alan Hellawell III Research Analyst (+852) 2203 6240 [email protected] F.I.T.T. for investors Digital ad exchanges: quietly promoting industry winners Advertising: it still makes the world go round While the Chinese Internet economy has gradually shifted away from its initial dependence on digital advertising, the “Big Three” are in fact increasing their reliance upon advertising. Alibaba could provide the most upside surprise in this area. By 2017, we expect Tencent to derive ~34% of total revenues from advertising (up from 15% in 1H 2015). “Marketing Services” meanwhile will constitute roughly 53% of Alibaba's CY2017 revenues, while Baidu will continue to look to search and other ad formats for nearly all of its revenues. As the market's first exhaustive series on Tencent, Alibaba and Baidu's ad business, our first installment focuses on the three leaders' ad exchanges. ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 124/04/2015. Deutsche Bank Markets Research Asia Industry Date China 5 December 2015 Technology China Internet Software & Services FITT Research Alan Hellawell III Research Analyst Digital ad exchanges: quietly (+852) 2203 6240 promoting industry winners [email protected] Advertising: it still makes the world go round Key Changes While the Chinese Internet economy has gradually shifted away from its initial Company Target Price Rating dependence on digital advertising, the “Big Three” are in fact increasing their BABA.N 98.00 to - reliance upon advertising. Alibaba could provide the most upside surprise in 99.00(USD) this area. By 2017, we expect Tencent to derive ~34% of total revenues from Source: Deutsche Bank advertising (up from 15% in 1H 2015). “Marketing Services” meanwhile will constitute roughly 53% of Alibaba's CY2017 revenues, while Baidu will Top picks continue to look to search and other ad formats for nearly all of its revenues. Tencent (0700.HK),HKD151.00 Buy As the market's first exhaustive series on Tencent, Alibaba and Baidu's ad Alibaba (BABA.N),USD82.59 Buy business, our first installment focuses on the three leaders' ad exchanges. Source: Deutsche Bank 2016: expecting shifting sands across China’s main ad form factors Companies Featured Despite the cooling economy, digital advertising spending in China should see solid 30% growth in 2016 per iResearch. While we concur with iResearch Tencent (0700.HK),HKD151.00 Buy projections of strong mobile (82%), e-commerce (36%), and video ads growth 2014A 2015E 2016E (39%), our sampling of brand owners and ad agencies suggests a weakening P/E (x) 35.6 37.0 28.1 in search spend (DBe Baidu 2016 core search +20% YoY ex-Qunar), largely due EV/EBITDA (x) 21.8 22.7 16.9 Price/book (x) 10.3 10.7 8.0 to an ever growing focus on e-commerce, industry consolidation and the rise of rival mobile P4P products. Baidu (BIDU.OQ),USD207.48 Hold What is the most important core competence of the Big 3? Ad technology 2014A 2015E 2016E While the Chinese internet economy is driven by e-commerce transactions, P/E (x) 29.6 36.5 28.6 social networking, gaming and other activities, it will be the sophistication of EV/EBITDA (x) 23.1 31.0 25.0 Price/book (x) 9.5 7.1 5.6 the ad technologies of Tencent, Alibaba and Baidu (aka “TAB”) that will separate successful companies from less successful over the next five years. In Alibaba (BABA.N),USD82.59 Buy this first installment of our digital ads series, we evaluate each of these three 2015A 2016E 2017E platforms’ advertising exchanges as proxies for their advertising prowess and P/E (x) 46.0 31.5 23.3 ability to attract customer spend. Tencent should see strong growth in mobile EV/EBITDA (x) 52.5 32.6 20.0 ad revs. We, however, believe Alibaba has the greatest capacity to surprise Price/book (x) 8.6 5.6 4.6 investors with its “Super-ID” capabilities and unrivaled “omni-channel” ability Source: Deutsche Bank to follow the user across internet properties and devices – a feature most in- demand amongst advertisers that we interviewed. Our findings around China’s three main ad exchanges firmly support our Buy recommendation on Alibaba. The ad exchange: a showcase for TAB ad technology prowess It is not surprising that China’s three dominant platforms have achieved a similarly commanding role in digital advertising. Each now offers its own ad exchange, a fully automated clearing house which dynamically matches demand from advertisers with ad inventory from website owners. We appreciate Tencent’s rising dominance of two of the four advertising “mega- trends” profiled herein: a) going mobile and b) RTB and programmatic. It is Alibaba’s successful exploitation of omni-channel capabilities that leads us to conclude that its Alimama ad group will continue to dominate. Valuation methodologies largely earnings-based Tencent TP of HK$173 based on SoTP: 1) 15x FY15E PE for online game + VAS; 2) 1.1x PEG for mobile games; 3) 1.2x PEG for ads. US$99 Alibaba TP involves CY16E non-GAAP PER (50% weighting), CY16E EV/EBITDA (30%), and 20% DCF. Baidu TP of US$189 based on PEG of 1.0x against FY16-18E EPS CAGR. Upside/downside risks: pace of mobile properties monetization. industry competition, trends in user activity. ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 124/04/2015. 5 December 2015 Software & Services China Internet Table Of Contents 2016 outlook for ad budgets ............................................... 3 Key highlights ..................................................................................................... 3 The DB survey: Robust 2016 growth in most areas of ad spend ........................ 3 Major trends from the DB survey ....................................................................... 4 The importance of ads ........................................................................................ 5 The ad exchange: behind-the-scenes enabler ..................... 8 Key highlights ..................................................................................................... 8 The ad exchange – an unseen battle on the China internet ................................ 8 Measuring the benefits of exchange, programmatic and RTB ............................ 9 The economics of the exchange ....................................................................... 12 The market & its likely success stories.............................. 16 Key highlights ................................................................................................... 16 China and Rest-of-World: different competitive landscapes............................. 16 China’s three great ad exchanges .................................................................... 16 DB’s four mega-trends: how TAB stack up ...................................................... 17 Ad exchange “mega-trends” ............................................. 20 Four critical developments in China’s ad exchanges ........................................ 20 Mega trend 1: Programmatic buying and RTB ................................................. 20 Mega trend 2: Ad exchanges go mobile ........................................................... 23 Mega trend 3: Ad exchanges go omni-channel ................................................ 27 Mega trend 4: Ad technology consolidation ..................................................... 29 The Tencent GDT ad exchange ......................................... 32 Tencent GDT: strong in premium, social and mobile inventory ........................ 32 The Alimama Ad Network ................................................. 34 China’s most dominant exchange, leveraging unrivaled big data capabilities . 34 Baidu BES .......................................................................... 36 Baidu Exchange Service: strong in ad demand, Baidu Union and video .......... 36 Appendix: Ad exchange basics ......................................... 38 Public and private exchanges ........................................................................... 39 Obstacles to the adoption of the “trifecta” in China ......................................... 41 Summing it up .................................................................................................. 43 China internet peer comparison ....................................................................... 45 Page 2 Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong 5 December 2015 Software & Services China Internet 2016 outlook for ad budgets Key highlights The most significant development in 2016 will be the shift
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