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New Zealand Food and Consumer Packaged Goods Market

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New Zealand Food and Consumer Packaged Goods Market FAST MOVING CONSUMER GOODS RETAILING IN NEW ZEALAND Report to Progressive Enterprises June 2001 CORIOLISRESEARCH Coriolis Research Ltd. is a strategic market research firm founded in 1997 an d based in Auckland, New Zealand. Coriolis primarily works with clients in the food and fast moving consumer goods supply chain, from primary producers to reta ilers. I n a ddition to w orking wit h client s, Co riolis regularly produces reports on current industry topics. Recent reports have included an analysis of the i mpact of the a rrival o f the German super market c hain Aldi in A ustralia, and a nswering the question: “Will selling groceries over the internet ever work?” ! The le ad r esearcher o n t his r eport was T im Morris, one of the founding partners of Coriolis Research. Ti m gra duated from C ornell U niversity i n New Yo rk wit h a degree in Agricultural Economics, with a specialisation in Food Industry Management. Tim has worked for a number of international retailers a nd ma nufacturers, i ncluding Nestlé, Drey er’s Ice Crea m, Kra ft/General Foods, S afeway a nd Woolworths New Zea land. Before helping to found Coriolis Research, Tim was a c onsultant f or Swander Pace a nd C ompany in S an Fr ancisco, where he w orked o n management consulting and a cquisition pr ojects f or c lients in cluding Danone, He inz, B estfoods and ConAgra. ! The coriolis force, named for French physicist Gaspard Coriolis (1792-1843), may be seen on a large scale in the movement of wi nds a nd ocean currents on t he r otating e arth. It dominates weather patterns, pr oducing t he counterclockwise f low observed a round l ow-pressure z ones i n the Northern Hemisphere and the clockwise flow around such zones in the Southern Hemisphere. It is the result of a centripetal force on a mass m oving wi th a vel ocity radially outward in a r otating plane. In market research it means understanding the big picture before you get into the details. ! CORIOLISRESEARCH PO BOX 10 202, Mt. Eden, Auckland, New Zealand Tel: +64 9 623 1848; Fax: +64 9 353 1515; email: [email protected] FMCG in New Zealand Table of Contents 1 Document Overview 2 I. The implications of changing consumers 3 II. Fast moving consumer goods retailing 12 III. The supermarkets segment 35 IV. The proposed merger 50 Appendix I: Changing consumers I-a Appendix II: FMCG retailing II-a Appendix III: Competitor Photos III-a CORIOLISRESEARCH FMCG Pathways in New Zealand 1 FMCG in New Zealand The further consolidation of the New Zealand supermarket industry will not harm the consumer I. New Zealand consumers are changing with strong implications for fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) II. In New Zealand, FMCG pathways to the consumer are highly competitive and changing rapidly III. Intense competition in the supermarkets segment has led to an ongoing process of consolidation IV. The merged entity will be clearly constrained in its ability to raise prices CORIOLISRESEARCH FMCG Pathways in New Zealand 2 FMCG in New Zealand I. New Zealand consumers are changing with strong implications for fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) retailing Ia. Households are becoming dramatically smaller Ib. New Zealand is becoming more multicultural Ic. Women have increased their participation in the workforce Id. More people are working longer hours but income disparity has increased See also Appendix I: Changing consumers CORIOLISRESEARCH FMCG Pathways in New Zealand 3 FMCG in New Zealand Ia. Households are becoming dramatically smaller – Declining birthrates and longer lifespans have led to a rapidly aging population living in more, but smaller, households (Appendix I-b) – The number of households is increasing fifty five percent faster than the number of people (Appendix I-c) – Household sizes are getting dramatically smaller across the developed world and in many countries, 25-30% of households are now one-person (Appendix I-d) – Smaller households have more frequent, but smaller, shopping trips and purchase more food away from home CORIOLISRESEARCH FMCG Pathways in New Zealand 4 FMCG in New Zealand Smaller households have more frequent, but smaller, shopping trips and purchase more food away from home FMCG RETAILING IMPLICATIONS OF SMALLER HOUSEHOLDS Change Implications Smaller average order size and ring-up Fewer large shopping trips Improved economics of food away Eating and shopping as socialising Winners Convenience stores (e.g. Star Mart) Social restaurants and cafes (e.g. Starbucks) Losers Supermarkets CORIOLISRESEARCH FMCG Pathways in New Zealand 5 FMCG in New Zealand Ib. New Zealand is becoming more multicultural – Europeans will have gone from ninety percent of the population in 1971 to an estimated sixty five percent by 2021 (Appendix I-f) – This growing ethnic diversity will be especially apparent in the children of 2021 (Appendix I-g) – However, the North is, and will probably remain, more multicultural than the South (Appendix I-h) – Growing cultural diversity is acting to fragment food and FMCG pathways CORIOLISRESEARCH FMCG Pathways in New Zealand 6 FMCG in New Zealand Growing cultural diversity is acting to fragment food and FMCG pathways FMCG RETAILING IMPLICATIONS OF MULTICULTURALISM Change Implications More diversity in the contents of the shopping cart Fragmentation of the mass market into sub-segments Increased variety and competition in food away Increased demand for specialised products Winners Asian Supermarkets (e.g. Tai Ping) Local and regional markets (e.g. Otara Market) Low cost, ethnic food away outlets Losers Generic local supermarkets Traditional Kiwi foodservice CORIOLISRESEARCH FMCG Pathways in New Zealand 7 FMCG in New Zealand Ic. Women have increased their participation in the workforce – Women are choosing to have fewer children later in life (Appendix I-i) – New Zealand women have doubled their participation in the workforce in the past thirty years, the largest shift in the developed world (Appendix I-j) – However, New Zealand women are more likely than men to work part time, partially in an attempt to balance their family requirements (Appendix I-k) – The growth of working women has increased the importance of fast, convenient solutions – As one example, this reduced time availability has led to rapid adoption of the microwave (Appendix I-l) CORIOLISRESEARCH FMCG Pathways in New Zealand 8 FMCG in New Zealand The growth of working women has increased the importance of fast, convenient solutions FMCG RETAILING IMPLICATIONS OF WOMEN WORKING Change Implications Less time available for ‘traditional’ roles Increased use of time saving solutions Increased willingness to trade time for money Desire to shop quickly and efficiently Reduced time available for meal preparation Winners Delivery foodservice (e.g. Pizza Hut) Convenience stores (e.g. Star Mart) Perishables specialists (e.g. Bakers Delight) Losers Supermarkets CORIOLISRESEARCH FMCG Pathways in New Zealand 9 FMCG in New Zealand Id. More people are working longer hours but income disparity has increased – A larger percent of the total population is working primarily in the service industries (Appendix I-m) – An increasing numbers of people are working longer hours (Appendix I-o) – However, this hard work is not necessarily translating into income - the rich are getting richer while the rest of the population has falling real incomes (Appendix I-p) – Retailing to the middle appears to be a difficult proposition CORIOLISRESEARCH FMCG Pathways in New Zealand 10 FMCG in New Zealand Retailing to the middle appears to be a difficult proposition FMCG RETAILING IMPLICATIONS OF INCOME DISPARITY Change Implications Polarisation of society into very price sensitive and price insensitive Some shoppers have time, some shoppers have money Weakening of the middle class Winners Discounters (e.g. Pak’N Save, The Warehouse) Restaurants and cafes Perishables Specialists (e.g. Vegie World) Losers Mid-market supermarkets CORIOLISRESEARCH FMCG Pathways in New Zealand 11 FMCG in New Zealand II. In New Zealand, FMCG pathways to the consumer are highly competitive and changing rapidly IIa. Supermarkets capture a significant portion of consumers FMCG spending IIb. The FMCG retailing sector is highly competitive and changing rapidly IIc. Supermarkets must react to this change or be replaced by emerging competitors See also Appendix II: FMCG retailing CORIOLISRESEARCH FMCG Pathways in New Zealand 12 FMCG in New Zealand IIa. Supermarkets capture a significant portion of consumers FMCG spending – Average weekly household expenditure is flat (Appendix II-b) – Consumers spending on food and household operations is falling over time (Appendix II-c) – This trend should continue: on a global basis, as incomes rise, people spend less of their income on food (Appendix II-d) – The average household spends $171.20 a week on food and FMCG items, two thirds of which is food; one third non-food – Consumers have different types of shopping trips and chose a destination based on its ability to meet their needs (Appendix II-e) – While Supermarkets and Grocery chains are strong in food retailing, they are weak in non-food retailing CORIOLISRESEARCH FMCG Pathways in New Zealand 13 FMCG in New Zealand The average household spends $171.20 a week on food and FMCG items… AVERAGE WEEKLY HOUSEHOLD EXPENDITURE1 (Dollars spent; 1998) FMCG $171.20 25% Other Expenditure $511.90 79% Total = $683.10 CORIOLISRESEARCH 1. Different classification than prior page FMCG Pathways in New Zealand 14 Source: Statistics New Zealand, (Household Expenditure Survey) FMCG in New Zealand … two thirds of which is food; one third non-food NEW ZEALAND HOUSEHOLD FMCG EXPENDITURE1 (Dollars per household per week; 1998) Weekly Household % of FMCG Group Expenditure FMCG Food at Home $88.40 51% 66% Food Food Away from Home $25.10 15% Alcohol $16.90 10% Publications & Stationery $9.30 5% Tobacco $8.00 5% Household Supplies $6.90 4% Personal Goods $5.60 3% 34% Non-Food Toiletries & Cosmetics $5.40 3% Pet Food & Supplies $4.00 2% Cookware & Tableware $1.30 1% Photo Film & Equipment $0.30 1% Total FMCG Expenditure $171.20 100% CORIOLISRESEARCH 1.
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