Aftermath of the CFA Franc Devaluation
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Aftermath of the CFA Franc Devaluation JEAN A. P.\eiEME$>T/ Finance & Development, June 1994.) A new to consolidate the progress achieved so far, IINCE the devaluation of strategy had to be found, and the January especially by strengthening the implementa- 1994 devaluation of their common currency tion of fiscal and structural policies. \ their common currency was the central element of that new strategy. in early 1994, the mem- The devaluation—50 percent in foreign- Expected outcome S currency terms for the CFA franc and 33 per- The new strategy was designed to help ber countries of the CFA cent for the Comorian franc (see chart)—was zone members regain competitiveness by franc zone have made great backed up by tight macroeconomic policies shifting resources from low-growth sectors, and far-reaching structural measures that which were often artificially protected, to sec- strides toward economic were designed to improve the countries' tors where countries enjoyed a comparative recovery. But much remains to growth prospects and restore confidence in advantage. The agricultural sector, which be done to consolidate the initial the zone. employs most of the population, was expected The IMF had been active in providing to be the first to benefit, through higher gains in order to achieve advice to the countries concerned in the period domestic prices for export crops and a shift in sustainable growth with fiscal leading up to the devaluation. Once the deci- sion to devalue had been taken, the IMF The CFA franc zone comprises the seven mem- and external viability over the moved quickly to assist each member country ber countries of the West African Economic and medium term. of the zone in formulating a comprehensive Monetary Union (WAEMU), namely Benin, adjustment program and in mobilizing the Burkina Faso, Cote d'lvoire, Mali, Niger, financial resources needed to make the new Senegal, and Togo; the six members of the strategy work (see box on page 25). Central African Economic and Monetary By the early 1990s, it had become clear that The new strategy's objectives for economic Community (CAEMC), namely Cameroon, the Central African Republic, Chad, the Congo, the repeated attempts at internal adjust- growth, inflation, and the balance of payments Equatorial Guinea, and Gabon; and the ment by the member countries of the CFA in 1994 have been largely met. Progress on the Comoros. On January 12, 1994, the exchange fiscal and structural elements of the new strat- franc zone (see box on this page) had not rate of the CFA franc, which had been fixed since been sufficient to cope with the rapidly wors- egy, however, has been uneven, with signifi- 1948, was devalued by 50 percent in foreign- ening economic and financial situations that cant differences between the West African and currency terms, and the Comorian franc (CF) they faced. (See "Striving for Stability: CFA Central African members of the zone. The was devalued by 33 percent at the same time. Franc Realignment," by Jean A.P. Clement, in main challenge now facing all the countries is Jean A. P. Clement, a French national, is Assistant to the Director of the IMF's African Department. 24 Finance & Development / June 1995 ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution domestic consumption toward local products. age points, and the ratio of investment to GDP The same was expected for the nontraditional by 6 percentage points, during 1994-96. CFA countries Real effective exchange rates and terms Savings would rise mainly owing to the export and import-substitution sectors. With of trade, 1980-94 stronger adjustment in the public sector, improved profitability in these sectors, exist- (weighted by 1994 GDP, 1985=100) ing capacities would be utilized, growth and which would include repayments of arrears. employment would be revived, and private This effort and capital inflows were expected investment would be encouraged. This, to provide scope for increased private sector together with effectively targeted public investment. investment, would lay the basis for further As the balance of payments improved and productivity growth over the medium term. external financial assistance flowed in, net The new strategy thus aimed to revive out- international reserves were programmed to put throughout the zone—after falling during strengthen considerably. The larger coun- 1990-93, real GDP was expected to rise by 1 tries—Cameroon and Cote d'lvoire, which percent on average in 1994, and by 4 to 6 per- account for more than 40 percent of the CFA cent during 1995-96—but cross-country vari- franc zone's GDP—were expected to have a ations were likely to be significant in the short dominant impact on the overall performance term because of differences in the severity of of the zone. the initial economic imbalances. These cross- country variations were expected to diminish How countries fared as a result of increasing economic integration. Overall, the objectives for economic growth, Consumer price inflation in the zone was inflation, and the external position in 1994 expected to rise from 0.5 percent on average have been largely met (see table). Progress during 1990-93 to 31 percent in 1994, and with fiscal and structural policies, however, has been uneven, with particularly significant then to drop to less than 7 percent in 1995, and Sources: IMF, Information Notice System; and World to fall below 5 percent in 1996. The inflation differences between the member countries of Economic Outlook. 1 An upward movement of the real effective rates indicates spike in 1994 reflected the projected direct the West African Economic and Monetary an appreciation. effects of the devaluation on the domestic Union (WAEMU) and those of the Central 2 A downward movement of the terms of trade indicates a loss. prices of imported goods, as well as correc- African Economic and Monetary Community tions in administered prices and wages imple- (CAEMC). In several countries, the problems mented in the devaluation's aftermath. Again, that have emerged stemmed partly from public utilities were lifted, inflation in several cross-country variations were expected on unsettled political situations. However, all countries picked up again somewhat later in account of differences in the degree of open- countries generally benefited from a stronger 1994, but progress in reducing the underlying ness, the terms of trade, and the pace of price world recovery; better terms of trade resulting inflation rate has continued. reforms. Over the medium term, given the from higher commodity prices; and, in several The average annual inflation rate in 1994 is exchange rate anchor, variations in the infla- cases, favorable weather conditions. estimated at about 33 percent for the zone as a tion rates were projected to decline as a result Inflation. Throughout the CFA franc zone, whole (2 percentage points more than tar- of trade liberalization measures and progress governments kept firm control over nominal geted); 30 percent for the West African coun- toward regional integration. wages in the public sector, and this approach tries (2 percentage points less than targeted); Domestic savings were expected to rise was largely followed by the private sector as and 38 percent for the Central African coun- from their low level and external and internal well. As a result, inflation was quickly tries (5 percentage points more than targeted). imbalances were to be reduced substantially. brought under control after the initial surge in Competitiveness improved, as measured by The ratio of domestic savings to GDP was prices following the devaluation. As tempo- the real effective exchange rate—that is, the programmed to increase by about 9 percent- rary price freezes on a few essential goods and inflation-adjusted exchange rate vis-a-vis the IMF Supports New Strategy IMF borrowing arrangements were approved for 11 of the 14 member draw under the KbAK (The Congo and Gabon are not eligible because their countries of the CFA franc zone by end-March 1994, and for the remaining per capita incomes exceed the level that defines low-income countries.) 3 by end-September 1994. To put IMF assistance in place as rapidly as Among the five ESAF-eligible countries that had launched their adjust- possible, programs for a number of countries (Cameroon, the Central ment efforts under IMF stand-by arrangements, only Senegal has begun to African Republic, Chad, the Congo, Gabon, Niger, and Senegal) were first implement an ESAF-supported program. During 1994, SDR 357 million supported by stand-by arrangements, with the expectation that these ($508 million) was disbursed out of a total commitment to all CFA franc- would be replaced by annual arrangements under the enhanced structural zone countries of SDR 1.3 billion ($1.9 billion) for 1994-96. adjustment facility (the ESAF is a low-interest-rate borrowing facility for The IMF has also played a critical role in catalyzing financial support for low-income countries) or the extended Fund facility (the Congo and the programs from other sources: about $10 billion of exceptional financial Gabon), provided the programs continued to be implemented satisfactorily. assistance was disbursed in 1994, of which about $7 billion was for debt In other countries where the design of far-reaching reforms was already relief. Shortly after the programs were approved by the IMF's Executive at an advanced stage (Benin, Burkina Faso, Cote d'lvoire, Equatorial Board, the countries benefited from rescheduling arrangements with pri- Guinea, Mali, and Togo), the programs were initially supported by vate and bilateral creditors, the latter worked out under the aegis of the ESAF resources and (for the Comoros) by structural adjustment facility Paris Club. The World Bank has collaborated closely in the design of the (SAF) resources. programs and disbursed about $1 billion of nonproject assistance to CFA At present, 12 of the 14 countries of the CFA franc zone arc eligible to franc-zone countries in 1994.