2000
Bashar’s Accession – Israeli Relations Improving? – Slow Pace of Economic Reform – Chaotic State of Government Finances
The sudden death of President Hafez al-Assad was by far the most significant development in Syria in the first half of 2000. The ailing statesman had in the last few years of his life demonstrated an increasing willingness to reach an ac- cord with the Israelis, but his sudden demise in June left Syria with a more acute challenge: to find a successor who could continue the 30-year rule of the Ba’ath Party. The change of government in Israel in May 1999 initially revived hopes for a negotiated peace settlement with Syria. An accord would generate new flows of Western investment and aid and reduce defence expenditure, channelling more funds into the flagging Syrian economy. However, analysts believed that an agreement could remain elusive – throughout 1999 and until his death Hafez al-Assad continued to stress that as part of any settlement a full return of the Golan Heights would be categorical, a concession which would be deeply unpopular with many Israelis.
Succession The domestic political arena in 1999 was dominated by the issue of succession. President Assad had since the death of his elder son in 1994 been grooming his sec- ond son, Bashar al-Assad, to be his successor. Assad had ruthlessly removed poten- tial rivals from the scene, including his own younger brother, Rifaat al-Assad, whomhesackedfromthevicepresidencyin1998.InOctober1999,PresidentAssad took further steps to discredit him, closing down an ‘illegal’ port in Latakia, which was built and operated by Rifaat. A month later, President Assad effectively exiled Rifaat,warningthathefacedarrestifhereturnedtoSyria.Themovewasclearlyde- signed to isolate Rifaat and enhance Bashar’s standing. Bashar made his first foray into Western diplomacy in November 1999, when he paid an official visit to French President Jacques Chirac, his first state visit to a Western leader. In 2000, he paid a state visit to Saudi Arabia. Nevertheless, despite earnest preparations, a smooth succession from fa- ther to son was never perceived to be inevitable, with many factions waiting in the wings. In March 2000, as one of his last major domestic acts, President Assad per- formed the first significant cabinet reshuffle since 1992, with Muhammad
© koninklijke brill nv, leiden, ���9 | doi:�0.��63/978900439�533_0�5 2000 243 Mustafa Miro appointed as the new prime minister. Influential members of the Ba’ath Party viewed to be close to Bashar al-Assad remained in the cabinet while others were purged. Among the survivors of this process were foreign minister Farouq al-Shara and local administration minister Salim Yasin, both close associates of Bashar. Within three weeks following the death of President Hafez al-Assad, Bashar al-Assad had become the commander-in-chief of the powerful armed forces and was elected as secretary of the Ba’ath party’s top policy-making body, the Regional Command. Furthermore, the Syrian parlia- ment unanimously approved Bashar al-Assad as Syria’s next President for a seven year period. Bashar accepted the nomination and is expected to formally take charge after a public referendum on his suitability for the post to be held in July 2000.
Foreign Policy Relations with Israel improved in 1999 following the defeat of the right-wing Netanyahu administration and the election of Ehud Barak as prime minister, on a platform of negotiations towards a peace agreement. US-brokered talks brought the two countries to the negotiating table in December 1999 for the first time in four years. Although these talks ended inconclusively, hopes were raised for an eventual settlement. Territorial issues are complex, particularly the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights and conflicting Syrian and Israeli interests in Lebanon The balance of power was expected to shift if Barak fulfilled his pledge to pull out of Lebanon which he did in a swift fashion in May 2000. Barak had stated that this was not conditional on a comprehensive peace accord with Syria being reached. The Israeli withdrawal is generally regarded to have re- duced Syria’s bargaining power through the removal of the option of a negoti- ated tripartite settlement with Lebanon to end Hezbollah hostilities. Nevertheless, other obstacles to a comprehensive peace settlement remain, not the least of which is the Israeli government’s pledge to hold a referendum on the issue. Meanwhile, relations with Jordan improved dramatically in 1999. Following a visit by Syria’s prime minister to Amman in August 1999, the first senior delegation for nearly a decade, the two countries signed a free trade deal covering 200 products.
Economic Trends Higher oil prices in 1999 and into 2000 offset a contraction in the non-oil sector, which was affected by drought and structural problems. Rigidities and distor- tions within the centrally-planned economy continue to crowd out the private sector, stifling growth as the pace of reform remains, at best, slow.