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Election 2020 COUNTY COMMISSIONS Politicians IT’S A WRAP … MOSTLY aren’t born; Even conservative polls showed Democratic candi- dates with healthy leads over they’re Republicans before Election Day. trained KARI TRAVIS “You could’ve written the Supreme Court polls on ASST. MANAGING EDITOR BY KARI TRAVIS Charmin and gotten bet- ter use out of them,” Crone Take a deep breath. It’s said during a Nov. 5 presen- epublicans won a stra- over. tation sponsored by the N.C. tegic victory on Elec- Mostly. FreeEnterprise Foundation. tion Day in North Caro- North Carolina’s 2020 A majority of N.C. voters lina, claiming several former- election was a mixed bag full believe the elections were Rly Democratic county com- of unexpected results. Most conducted fairly, a post-elec- mission boards and adding to FILE PHOTO FILE voters are confident in the tion poll from Civitas Insti- GOP WINS. President Trump turned N.C. red in the contest for the White House. Republi- the pool of candidates they’ll outcomes, but others aren’t tute shows. The poll was con- cans also beat pollsters expectations in other statewde races. groom for positions in higher so sure, a new poll shows. ducted Nov. 12-14 by Harp- public offices. Some things we know er Polling and surveyed 513 Politicians aren’t born. for certain. President Trump likely voters in North Caroli- They are trained — often in won 50% of the state’s na. The margin of error is +/- small roles and in rural parts vote, turning North Caroli- 4.33%. of the state. Democrats and na red in the contest for the Two-thirds of respon- Republicans strategize care- White House. Simultaneous- dents said they’re confident fully years before an election, ly, Democratic Gov. Roy Coo- in the election. But a trou- preparing lower-level officials per won another term in the bling number of voters — to rise through the levels of Executive Mansion, collect- three in 10 — are less con- state and federal government. ing enough votes to edge Re- fident. Conservative voters While it’s easy to focus sole- publican Dan Forest by more were more likely to express ly on the outcome of the mar- than four points. concern about the election’s quee elections, local results In the state’s judicial fairness, pollsters found. offer a peek around the- cor races, Republicans made a That skepticism isn’t sur- ner. A look at the lineup of mi- sweep of all eight open seats prising. Before Nov. 3, Demo- nor-league politicians who in on the N.C. Court of Appeals crats put up a massive fight a few years may become ma- and the N.C. Supreme Court. across the state. They out- jor players. Few pollsters saw a Re- spent Republican campaigns This year, 308 county com- publican win coming in on every level. They success- mission seats were up for North Carolina, especially fully extended the state’s grabs. About a third decided not in appellate races. Clear- deadline for accepting absen- by primary elections and ap- ly, Democratic analysts were tee ballots. pointments before Election reading the wrong surveys, But the extra time did lit- PHOTO POOL Day, the N.C. Association of said Brad Crone, a Democrat- tle to help them. GOVERNOR. Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper won another term in the Executive Mansion, ic political strategist in Ra- collecting enough votes to edge Republican Dan Forest by more than four points. continued PAGE 13 continued PAGE 12 leigh.

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FROM THE PUBLISHER Boosting public employee Maskgiving 2020 unions would cost by the numbers taxpayers plenty, study says

PUBLISHER Amy O. Cooke @therightaoc

EDITOR-IN-CHIEF Rick Henderson @deregulator

MANAGING EDITOR John Trump @stillnbarrel

ASST. MANAGING EDITOR Kari Travis @karilynntravis

EXECUTIVE EDITOR Don Carrington [email protected]

ASSOCIATE EDITORS Julie Havlak his Thanksgiving I left few days, Cooper issued a mask- @juliehavlak North Carolina to see my or-else executive order with this Mitch Kokai brother in a state where dire warning: “We are in danger. @mitchkokai being No. 11 at the dinner table … This is a pivotal moment in our Lindsay Marchello Tdidn’t carry any stigma. fight against the coronavirus. Our @LynnMarch007 Apparently, the 11th person at actions now will determine the any Thanksgiving feast in North fate of many.” DESIGNER Carolina was a problem. She was A friend, neighbor, or relative Greg de Deugd bound to be a COVID carrier set to comes over to your house? Put on [email protected] turn dinner into a super-spread- a mask. Both of you. All 10 of you. er event. Thankfully, Gov. Roy And Cooper expects local author- PUBLISHED BY Cooper’s executive order nipped ities to threaten businesses to The John Locke Foundation that threat in the bud by “target- enforce the new mask rules. 4800 Six Forks Road, #220

ing family groups and community Department of Health and CARRINGTON DON BY PHOTO CJ gatherings, like those held around Human Services Secretary Mandy UNIONS. Groups like North Carolina Asssociation of Educators could gain Thanksgiving,” to no more than Cohen added hospitals still have collective bargaining abilities. Repealing the prohibition on collective 10 people indoors, as reported in capacity, but they “are feeling bargaining would increase government spending by up to $1.32 billion. Raleigh, N.C. 27609 Carolina Journal. the strain.” Don’t bother her with (919) 828-3876 • Fax: 821-5117 Targeting families in their www.JohnLocke.org homes wasn’t enough. Within a continued PAGE 20 axpayers could pay an extra of workers were unionized in 2019, John Hood $1.32 billion if public employ- according to the U.S. Department of Chairman ees win the ability to engage Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics. COMMENTARY BY JOHN HOOD in collective bargaining, says a re- JLF researchers conducted the Bill Graham, John M. Hood Tport by the John Locke Foundation. study to discover the economic Ted Hicks, Christine Mele, North Carolina has banned gov- costs of repealing the ban on pub- Rodney C. Pitts, Paul Slobodian Parity extends ernment employees from collective lic-sector collective bargaining. David Stover, Edwin Thomas bargaining for 60 years. Repealing But unions are working to Board of Directors the prohibition would increase gov- change that, and they have won ernment spending by $889 million some footholds in the state. ISSN 2578-8167 Carolina Journal is down the ballot a monthly journal of news, analysis, to $1.32 billion — creating a burden The report doesn’t count local and commentary on state and local of up to $126.03 for each taxpayer in spending, and so the actual bill for government and public policy issues n 2020, N.C. Republicans and Longtime readers know that I 2019, says the report. taxpayers will be higher than the in North Carolina. Democrats took their respec- like to look at outcomes beyond Strengthening public unions report’s estimates, Stoops said. The ©2020 by The John Locke Founda- tive cases to the public. Each the headline races to get a better would slow economic recovery from report warns that collective bar- tion Inc. All opinions expressed in by- party asked voters to put them handle on the state’s political tra- the coronavirus and its shutdowns gaining could trigger “massive prop- lined articles are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the Ifully in charge of North Carolina jectory. Thanks to data gathered in North Carolina. Increasing gov- erty tax increases” at the local level. views of the editors of CJ or the staff government. by the N.C. Association of County ernment spending would drive tax- Taxpayers also could count on and board of the John Locke Founda- The voters said no. Commissioners, and crunched es and decrease the state’s econom- paying more in the long term. The tion. Material published herein may be reprinted as long as appropriate Well, to be more precise, the by my colleague Anna Martina, I ic output, says Terry Stoops, John report calculates the cost of in- credit is given. Submissions and let- vast majority of voters actually can now supplement what you’ve Locke Foundation vice president for creased wages without weighing ters are welcome and should be di- research. employee benefits. But more spend- rected to the editor. said yes to the pitch — each already heard about the elections party’s base vote was about with a closer look at county “It would impede the economic ing on retirement and health care To subscribe, call 919-828-3876. 46% of the electorate — but the commissions. recovery by making it more expen- benefits could create substantial Readers also can request Carolina remaining 8% chose to split their Going into the 2020 cycle, 56 sive to do business in North Caroli- costs, especially as retirees live lon- Journal Weekly Report, delivered each weekend by e-mail, or visit tickets. Some left individual races of North Carolina’s 100 counties na,” Stoops said. “The cost of gov- ger, said Stoops. CarolinaJournal.com for news, links, blank or went third-party, most were governed by Republicans. ernment would surge, and that in- “It will create a continuous drain and exclusive content updated each notably in the Senate race. (Some That was a high-water mark for crease would force elected officials on public resources,” Stoops said. “It weekday. Those interested in educa- tion, economics, higher education, 4.4% voted for neither Thom Til- the state GOP. For most of the to impose tax increases on all North will break state and local budgets. health care or local government also lis nor Cal Cunningham.) Others 20th century, their local can- Carolinians.” Government at all levels will be un- can ask to receive weekly e-letters As a right-to-work state, North able to sustain the costs associated covering these issues. chose an assortment of Republi- didates had been irrelevant in cans and Democrats, depending Carolina has the second-lowest with higher wages and benefits.” continued PAGE 21 on the office. unionization rate in the nation, be- hind only South Carolina. Just 2.3% CJ Staff CAROLINA JOURNAL // DECEMBER 2020 3 QUICK TAKES State Senate Republicans select N.C. lowers rate of Kathy Harrington to lead caucus teacher attrition, as

epublicans within the N.C. Senate have elected Kathy GOP made it a priority Harrington unanimously to serve as their majority leader. She’s Rthe first woman to hold the job. “It’s such an honor to have earned the faith and trust of my colleagues for this leadership po- sition,” Harrington, R-Gaston, said in a news release. “North Carolina has been well-served by the past decade of low taxes, responsible spending, and investments in ed- ucation, and I’m excited to work with my colleagues to continue that agenda.” Senate leader Phil Berger, R-Rockingham, endorsed his col- leagues’ decision. “Sen. Harrington is a powerful voice in the caucus and works tirelessly behind the scenes,” Berger said in the same news release. “You may not read about her very often in the paper, but she’s a force in the Senate. I’m excited about her election, and I

know she’ll do a wonderful job.” HARRINGTON KATHY Harrington is the first female NEW LEADER. Kathy Harrington is the first female majority leader for either BEFORE THE majority leader for either Republi- Republicans or Democrats since the Senate created the position in 1977. coronavirus pan- amount of teachers’ pay raises. cans or Democrats since the Sen- demic shuttered schools, more Republicans tried again. ate created the position in 1977, ac- teachers were staying in North They passed mini-budgets to cording to the news release. First ty leader. Ralph Hise, R-Mitchell, as deputy Carolina’s classrooms. give pre-K-12 teachers a 3.9% elected in 2010, Harrington served Majority leader represents the president pro tempore. The Republi- North Carolina succeed- raise, as well as boosting the sal- as a co-chair of the Senate’s bud- No. 2 leadership position within can caucus will hold a 28-22 major- ed in lowering its teacher at- aries of community college and get-writing Appropriations Com- the majority caucus, ranking be- ity over Democrats when the new trition rate, even after its bud- university employees. They al- mittee during the last two years. hind only the president pro tempo- General Assembly convenes in Jan- get stalemate froze teacher pay. so passed cost-of-living adjust- She succeeds Sen. Harry Brown, re. GOP senators tapped Berger to uary. The state lost only 7.53% of its ments for state retirees. R-Onslow, who is retiring after serve a sixth term in that position. 94,410 teachers in the past re- Cooper vetoed them all. serving the past decade as majori- Republicans also named Sen. CJ Staff porting year. The lower attrition rate is the No one knows how the coro- product of the legislature’s focus navirus pandemic and remote on teacher turnover, said Stoops. learning will affect the state’s “The opponents of the Re- Boosting public employee unions would ability to keep teachers in the publican majority in the Gener- classrooms. The state has yet to al Assembly claim that the re- release that data. port shows that teachers are dis- cost taxpayers plenty, study says Just 7,110 teachers left the satisfied and that the legisla- profession from March 2019 to ture isn’t doing enough to make March 2020, according to a draft sure they stay in the classroom,” TAXPAYERS COULD pay an ex- BY THE NUMBERS change that, and they have won report to the General Assembly. Stoops said. “But the evidence tra $1.32 billion if public employees some footholds in the state. That’s better than the 7.59% isn’t bearing that out.” win the ability to engage in collectiv $889 million The report doesn’t count local attrition rate of 2018-19 and a No one knows how the coro- bargaining, says a report by the John Repealing the ban on collective spending, and so the actual bill for significant improvement from navirus and shutdowns will bargaining could cost the state Locke Foundation. nearly $1 billion and would slow taxpayers will be higher than the re- 8.1% attrition recorded during change classrooms. The pan- North Carolina has banned gov- economic recovery. port’s estimates, Stoops said. The re- the 2017-18 reporting year. demic stoked fears that at-risk ernment employees from collective port warns that collective bargain- “It’s encouraging that the teachers would retire early in- bargaining for 60 years. Repealing ing could trigger “massive property teacher turnover continues to stead of returning to the class- the prohibition would increase gov- na,” Stoops said. “The cost of gov- tax increases” at the local level. decrease,” said Terry Stoops, room. ernment spending by $889 million ernment would surge, and that in- Taxpayers also can count on pay- John Locke Foundation vice But Stoops is optimistic. to $1.32 billion — creating a burden crease would force elected officials ing more in the long term. The report president for research and di- “I don’t believe that COVID of up to $126.03 for each taxpayer in to impose tax increases on all North calculates the cost of increased wag- rector of education studies. “It’s is going to play a major role in 2019, says the report. Carolinians.” es without weighing employee ben- a testament to the work of the generating extraordinary attri- Strengthening public unions As a right-to-work state, North efits. But more spending on retire- Republican General Assembly, tion,” Stoops said. would slow the economic recovery Carolina has the second-lowest ment and health care benefits could which has tried to make teacher “School districts were real- from the coronavirus and its shut- union rate in the nation, behind create substantial costs, especially recruitment and retention a pri- ly good at accommodating those downs in North Carolina. Increas- only South Carolina. Just 2.3% of as retirees live longer, said Stoops. ority.” teachers and making sure they ing government spending would workers were unionized in 2019, ac- “It will create a continuous drain Teachers have been wait- weren’t exposed to students drive taxes and decrease the state’s cording to the U.S. Department of on public resources,” Stoops said. “It ing on raises ever since budget in in-person classrooms. They economic output, said Terry Stoops, Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics. will break state and local budgets. negotiations collapsed in 2019. were able to preclude some of John Locke Foundation vice presi- JLF researchers conducted the Government at all levels will be un- Gov. Roy Cooper, a Democrat, the turnover that may have oth- dent for research. study to discover the economic able to sustain the costs associated vetoed teacher pay raises in the erwise occurred.” “It would impede the economic costs of repealing the ban on pub- with higher wages and benefits.” budget, demanding Medicaid recovery by making it more expen- lic-sector collective bargaining. expansion and objecting to the CJ Staff sive to do business in North Caroli- But unions are working to CJ Staff 4 CAROLINA JOURNAL // DECEMBER 2020 ELECTIONS Gunther declared ineligible to sit as state judge, thanks to Carolina Journal BY KARI TRAVIS ther will face. CJ reached out to the state board, asking when a hearing emocratic judicial candidate would be scheduled, but did not im- Tim Gunther is disqualified mediately receive a response. from election after admit- Wake County District Attor- ting to the Wake County Board of ney Lorrin Freeman told the News DElections he violated state law. But & Observer she would wait for the a remedy — which can’t be decided elections board to issue a report be- by the Wake board — hadn’t been fore considering criminal charges prescribed by press time. against Gunther. When Gunther filed as a Wake Unless Tanner files a challenge County District Court candidate in Superior Court and is declared in 2019, he told the Wake County the winner, Democratic Gov. Roy board he lived in Judicial District Cooper would appoint someone to 10F. In November, Gunther won fill the judge's seat. Cooper usual- that seat over Republican challeng- ly appoints judges to empty District er Beth Tanner. Court seats. But Gunther lied about where he But Gunther’s term hadn’t be- lived. He has owned a house in Cary gun. He hadn’t taken the oath of of- since 2006. That puts him in Dis- fice. trict 10D. If Cooper picks a replacement, It was Carolina Journal report- Democrats will have won the seat, er Don Carrington who first wrote even though it was secured illegal- about discrepancies in Gunther’s ly by a candidate who lied about residency claims. In October, Car- where he lived. rington began looking into re- PHOTO FILE CJ That’s why Tanner should win cords for 821 Hepplewhite Court, DISQUALIFIED THANKS TO INVESTIGATIVE JOURNALISM. The Fuquay-Varina house where Tim Gunther is registered the election, Erwin said. The Re- Fuquay-Varina, the home which to vote. On the porch, shirtless, is Rex Jacobson, the boyfriend of Gunther's daughter. publican candidate received the Gunther claimed on his candidacy second-highest number of votes. and voter registration forms. The Gunther got 56.19% of the ballot candidacy form requires a signature home and move into the district. Observer is expensive,” Carrington count. Tanner received 43.81%. below this oath: “I swear or affirm That plan simply never came to fru- said in his testimony before the A Tanner win is unlikely since that the statements on this form ition, Gunther’s lawyer said. If Cooper picks board. “I wouldn’t expect some- you can never lawfully win an elec- are true, correct, and complete to Gunther left abruptly, leaving a replacement, one to have a paper delivered some- tion unless you finish in first place, the best of my knowledge or belief.” Erwin and Tanner surprised and where they don’t live.” Gerry Cohen, a member of the Wake Gunther owns a home in Cary, confused. Democrats will Greg Flynn, the board chair and County board, told CJ. Carrington confirmed, in an entire- “He completely ignored the fact have won the seat, a Democrat, seemed to question Tanner told CJ she’d appreciate ly different judicial district than that he repeatedly lied to people,” Carrington’s statements. the opportunity. the one in which he ran. Gunther’s Erwin told CJ, relaying her frustra- even though it was “I wish we could focus on sub- “I would really like to serve my ex-wife and daughter own the tions about the process she’s un- secured illegally stantial evidence and less on opin- community,” she said. “I feel very Fuquay-Varina home he claimed as dertaken to seek justice for Tanner. ion,” Flynn said. strongly about what happens in the his residence. His daughter appears “But we caught him.” by a candidate who But later that evening Flynn district.” to live there with her boyfriend. The evidence against Gunther lied about where told WRAL there “was an abun- Tanner is associate director at Carrington’s reporting bolstered was clear, Erwin said. But though he lived. dance of evidence” against Gun- the N.C. Innocence Inquiry Com- questions about whether Gunther Gunther admitted his guilt at the ther. mission, a state agency focused on was qualified to run in District 10F. hearing, the Wake County board Erwin provided the board sev- the fair and impartial administra- When Gunther won the election by required Erwin and her lawyer to eral affidavits, including one from tion of justice. more than 12 points, Joan Erwin, present their evidence. In December 2019, Gunther Brett Joseph Lerschall, a close The lawyer shifted away from a resident in the district and a for- Carrington testified, relaying to changed his N.C. driver’s license to neighbor of 821 Hepplewhite Court questions about her thoughts on mer law professor of Tanner’s, filed the Wake County board what he’d 821 Hepplewhite Court. in Fuquay-Varina. Gunther’s illegal candidacy. a protest. discovered in his research. He pro- Carrington told the board how Lerschall said he never had seen “It’s the board’s job to hear the A three-hour hearing Nov. 17 vided copies of his story and photo- he watched Gunther back into the Gunther at the address. Erwin also evidence,” she said. “I don’t know included a bizarre series of closed graphs of Gunther’s Cary residence. driveway at 103 Solway and enter presented tax and real estate docu- that I have any opinions about how sessions, questions, and testimo- In March 2006, Tim Gunther the house at 5:15 p.m. Oct. 7. At 7 ments showing that Gunther didn’t Mr. Gunther handled that. That’s up ny. Gunther arrived for the first por- bought the house at 103 Solway a.m. Oct. 11, Carrington saw Gun- own the home. to him. I think my role as a candi- tion of the hearing and made an un- Court, Cary, Carrington reported. ther’s car in the driveway again. A The county elections board date is to support the protest and let expected statement — through his In May 2006, Gunther changed his bundle at the base of the driveway unanimously passed a motion dis- the process work through.” lawyer — admitting that he nev- N.C. driver’s license to 103 Solway looked as if it was the Sunday News qualifying Gunther from the race. “I think the evidence says what er lived in District 10F and claim- Court. In 2013, Gunther paid off the & Observer newspaper. But the State Board of Elections it says, and the decision will be ing that he intended to sell his Cary mortgage. “A subscription to the News & must decide what remedy Gun- what it is.”

www.carolinajournal.com CAROLINA JOURNAL // DECEMBER 2020 5 NORTH CAROLINA Mask up or else, Cooper says

BY JOHN TRUMP tem. It pinpoints counties with the crunches at stressed hospitals and highest levels of viral spread and urgent cares. ov. Roy Cooper in a recent ex- offers specific recommendations to Cohen basically ducked the ecutive order encouraged lo- bring numbers down. question. She said the state would cal authorities to pursue Counties are coded as red, or- keep existing waivers in place but criminal and civil penalties against ange, and yellow, with red classi- go no further. Gbusinesses that fail to uphold mask fied as “critical.” They’re assigned The news briefing's message and distancing requirements. respective colors according to the was simple: Wear a mask. The order, which was scheduled rate of cases — the number of new Cooper and Cohen, though, cou- through Dec. 11, further tightens cases in 14 days per 100,000 people pled this requirement with ominous mask mandates when people are — the percentage of positive cases, rhetoric: serious, dangerous. Shaky around others who don’t live with and impacts to hospitals. That last ground, and a test of our resolve. them. metric considers the number of hos- Stark warning, serious, and danger- In schools, in stores, and at pitalizations, staffing, and available ous. work. In our homes. beds. Cooper and Cohen warned SHARKSHOCK “The rules need to be enforced, MORE MASKS. Women wearing masks while on a walk in Asheville, N.C. Twenty counties are now in the against holiday travel and asked and we’re working with state and red category. Cases are trending up, people to hold holiday dinners out- local governments to do just that,” Cohen said, although the percent- side and to keep gatherings small. Cooper said in a news conference “If we need to,” said Cooper, who measures that would fine business- age of positive tests has increased The indoor limit is 10, Cooper’s Nov. 23. hopes the latest order encourages es $100 per person for every indi- just “slightly.” edicts say. Though he says he’s reluctant compliance. He called the latest ac- vidual who exceeds capacity limits. “We still have capacity, but hos- “The more people wear a mask, to enact the financially shattering tion a “call to arms.” Greensboro’s order will be enforced pitals are feeling the strain.” the more the community is protect- shutdowns and curfews becoming Cooper used Greensboro as against businesses that don’t com- North Carolina Health News ed,” Cohen said. prevalent across the country, he did, a dark example. Mayor Nancy ply, seemingly to the point that of- asked if the state would consider re- Cooper on March 10 declared however, threaten to “ratchet it up Vaughan, who issued an emergency fending businesses effectively fail. laxing occupational licensing lim- a state of emergency to combat even more.” declaration in that city to reinforce “We’re putting more responsi- its, letting advanced-practice pro- the spread of the virus. He closed Cooper intimated more lock- Cooper’s executive order, also spoke bly on retailers to enforce the mask fessionals including physician as- schools, gyms, hair and nail salons, downs could come within the next during the news conference, as did mandate in their stores,” Cooper sistants and nurse practitioners per- spas, health clubs, and movie the- couple of weeks. At least two report- Dr. Mandy Cohen, state health de- said. form to the full scope of their prac- aters. He has since reopened the ers asked Cooper why he isn’t levy- partment secretary. The governor in a news confer- tice — performing many duties on- state, albeit in truncated, uneven ing more draconian suppressions, Greensboro began enforcing the ence Nov. 17 announced the imple- ly medical doctors can handle un- phases. He never stuck to his origi- such as those from March. new rules late last month, including mentation of a County Alert Sys- der state law. Potentially easing nal three-phase plan. Access granted, but not in N.C. Cooper’s COVID-19 news conferences are live, but not in person. He’s in the minority.

BY JULIE HAVLAK

After nine months of the coronavirus pandemic and shutdowns, 68% of the nation’s governors have held press conferences with reporters physically present. Gov. Roy Cooper, a Democrat, is one of 16 governors who hold only virtual press briefings without reporters in the room. Other governors use social distancing, temperature screenings, and large auditoriums to allow in-person press briefings. STATE OF NORTH CAROLINA NORTH OF STATE STRICTLY VIRTUAL. 68% of the nation’s governors have held press confer- ences with reporters physically present. Gov. Roy Cooper, a Democrat, is one of 16 governors who hold only virtual press briefings IN PERSON VIRTUAL MIXED 6 CAROLINA JOURNAL // DECEMBER 2020 EDUCATION Lawmakers slam state officials for COVID lockdowns that have left students behind

BY JULIE HAVLAK open long before public schools. Cooper only reopened public ore students face repeating schools in July. He permitted ele- a grade than at any time in mentary schools to return to full the past century, says Da- in-person learning in September. vid Stegall, deputy superintendent “Why is it that private schools Mof innovation at the N.C. Depart- can go full-time instruction and we ment of Public Instruction. can’t?” Johnson asked. Remote learning is failing North In North Carolina, most school Carolina’s students. Roughly 19% districts now use the governor’s of students aren’t attending class- least-restrictive plans. About 82% es regularly. State officials predict of local education agencies re- fewer students would graduate or opened their classrooms under advance to the next grade. Plan A, or adopted Plan B’s mix of Republican lawmakers slammed virtual and in-person learning. But remote learning as a “disaster” and 18% of local education agencies a “wasted year,” grilling the lead- still offer only virtual learning un- ers of the State Board of Education der Plan C. during a meeting of the Joint Leg- Students are falling away from islative Education Oversight Com- the public school system. Enroll- mittee on Dec. 1. ment fell 51,565, dropping 3.3% “We’re creating a greater divide from this time last year, with a than we ever had,” Stegall said. “It’s “drastic reduction” in kindergarten about opportunity and equity, and enrollment. This year’s kindergar- in the current environment it will ASSEMBLY GENERAL N.C. ten class has 13,573 fewer students "DISASTER." Rep. Craig Horn, R-Union, chairs a meeting of the General Assembly's education oversight committee. continue to grow.” than in 2019. Nine months after Gov. Roy But time is running out to spend Cooper closed schools to full-time, federal coronavirus relief money. in-person instruction, 36% of stu- dents are learning or not learning,” months of learning, putting them “Maybe it’s too late for that,” North Carolina still had 47% of dents remain in a completely virtu- Stoops said. “We have no measures behind in school, increasing their said Stoops. “That’s what I fear, the $302 million in its coffers at the al format. On a given day, only 48% for achievement. And apparently likelihood of dropping out, and sti- that it’s too late to reach those stu- end of October. Unspent relief mon- of students sit in a classroom, said we have no plans to assess elemen- fling their future earnings. dents who aren’t attending school ey vanishes at the end of December Stegall. tary and middle school students “All of those are going to be regularly — that these are the stu- when any unspent cash will return The arrangement isn’t working. during the school year.” huge gaping holes in our system dents who are falling way behind to the federal government. Almost a fifth of students aren’t But lawmakers offered glimpses going forward,” Rep. Ashton Clem- and will require significant remedi- The legislature allocated some regularly attending class, and aver- of what students have lost to virtu- mons, D-Guilford, said. “Those ation in the future.” $15 million for expanding access to age daily attendance has dropped al learning. challenges will prohibit the growth Republicans pushed to return Wi-Fi in homes and communities. 4.28% since 2019. The state’s met- “I’ve got a 15-year-old and a of our state for years if we don’t children to the classroom. They re- The state had spent less than half rics don’t track the quality of that 13-year-old that are struggling,” have a plan now.” peatedly pointed to Europe, where that amount by the end of October. attendance, and so the data don’t Sen. Todd Johnson, R-Union, said. Stegall acknowledged that the governments kept schools open de- The department blamed state and capture full learning loss, said Terry “My boys were A/B students pre- state has been reactionary in its re- spite rising case counts and eco- federal restrictions. Stoops, John Locke Foundation vice COVID, now we’re celebrating a C. sponse to the pandemic. But a fu- nomic lockdowns. Stegall assured legislators on- president for research and director They’re struggling mightily.” ture strategy can undo only so Cooper spared only private ly a “minimal amount” of the relief of education studies. The effects will be long-last- much of the damage done in the schools, allowing colleges, univer- money would revert to the federal “We still don’t know what stu- ing. Experts say students are losing present, says Stoops. sities, and other private schools to government.

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edistricting could prove con- “We have a mandate to legis- tentious in next year’s legisla- late,” Moore said. tive session. But voters also re-elected Gov. House Speaker Tim Moore, Roy Cooper, a Democrat, to lead the RR-Cleveland, previewed the 2021 executive branch. legislature at a news conference at Legislative Republicans and N.C. Republican Party headquar- Cooper rarely see eye-to-eye on ma- ters in Raleigh on Nov. 16. Along jor policy issues, including Medicaid with redistricting, the speaker dis- expansion and school choice. cussed fiscal issues, a potential fed- Cooper has shown he isn’t afraid eral COVID relief package, and Med- to use his veto powers, and Republi- icaid expansion as issues lawmak- cans no longer have supermajority ers will confront. status to challenge his vetoes. Re- The General Assembly will have publicans would need the votes of to draw new maps after results from two Democrats in the Senate and the decennial census come in. Re- three in the House to override if all sponding to a question from Caroli- members are present. na Journal, Moore said he liked the The upcoming legislative ses- transparency the legislature used to sion will test each side’s willing- draw maps last year. Expect to see a ness to compromise.Moore said he’s similar process, he said. spoken with Cooper about areas of Several left-leaning groups common ground. The House speak- brought lawsuits challenging the er doesn’t want a repeat of the bud- maps Republicans had drawn af- get stalemate that dominated the ter the 2018 election. Courts forced past legislative session. Republicans to redraw maps using Moore said Cooper shouldn’t court-approved templates. The pro- MANDATE. House Speaker Tim Moore, R-Cleveland, speaks at a Nov. 16 news conference at N.C. Republican Party head- hold up the legislative agenda over quarters in Raleigh. House Republicans nominated Moore for a record-tying fourth term as House speaker. cess was done in the open, with the one issue, a reference to Cooper’s ul- public able to watch over a lives- timatum to expand Medicaid as a » tream. er by the Republican House caucus, condition of passing a budget. Speaker Pro Tempore — Rep. » Hardister, R-Guilford Moore said census data prob- which gained four seats in the re- Moore said any proposal to ex- » Sarah Stevens, R-Surry Joint Conference Leader — Rep. ably won’t arrive until mid-year. cent election. House Majority Leader — Rep. Pat Hurley, R-Randolph pand Medicaid without conditions That leaves plenty of time to de- The caucus gathered virtual- would have failed in the House and » John Bell, R-Wayne A blue wave expected to sweep cide which maps to use as a start- ly and in-person to choose leaders. Deputy Majority Leader — Rep. out GOP legislators never materi- the Senate. He suggested Cooper ing point for the legislative and con- A formal vote will come early next would get more cooperation if he » Brenden Jones, R-Columbus alized. Instead, Republicans main- gressional districts. year. Conference Leader — Rep. John tained a hold on the General Assem- were more flexible on the issue. Moore was unanimously renom- The entire leadership team won » Szoka, R-Cumberland bly with 28 seats in the Senate and inated for a fourth term as speak- unanimous re-election: Majority Whip — Rep. Jon 69 in the House. CJ Staff

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@johnlockefoundation @JohnLockeNC 10 CAROLINA JOURNAL // DECEMBER 2020 ELECTIONS Outcome of chief justice race may depend on state election board’s independence BY RICK HENDERSON » 34-67 voting locations: recount » two he ballots have been counted. 67-100 voting locations: re- Twice. Some will be count- » count three ed again. Maybe all of them. 101-166 voting locations: Even after that, North Carolinians » recount four Tmay not know who will be the chief And so on. justice of the state Supreme Court Mailed absentee ballots would in 2021. be included in the precincts where Associate Justice Paul Newby, the voters live. a Republican, defeated incumbent If the recount changes enough Democratic Chief Justice Cheri Bea- votes potentially to overturn the sley for the chief’s seat in the un- election, by extrapolating the dif- official election night tally. He pre- ference to include all votes cast, vailed after county canvasses and then the State Board of Elections a recount. The results were close, would recount all the ballots in that with only 401 votes separating the race by hand. candidates after the first recount With a margin of 401 votes, Bea- wrapped up in early December. sley wouldn’t have to pick up many But Beasley refused to concede. votes to get a full recount, Jackson She asked the State Board of Elec- wrote. tions to perform a manual sample The magic number is 13. recount of 3% of the precincts in He estimates a little more than each county. It’s her legal right to do 161,000 votes will be recounted so. The “hand-eye” recount might in the 3% sample. Beasley would turn up issues with voting scanners have to net a mere 13 votes to get and allow a manual recount of all a full recount. If she gains fewer 5.39 million ballots cast. AP VIA JOURNAL WHITLEY/SUN GRAY than that, or if Newby picks up any The state elections board also CHIEF JUSTICE RACE STILL UNDECIDED. Justice Paul Newby and Chief Justice Cheri Beasley preside at a special ses- votes, Newby should win. scheduled a hearing Dec. 18 to con- sion of the Supreme Court of North Carolina at New Bern City Hall. But because the state board will sider protests filed by the two can- decide whether Beasley’s protests didates. County elections boards prevail, it may not matter if Newby were asked to hold any protest man Michael Whatley said Beas- ers expect to create a new con- night count by 366 votes. He picked won a dozen recounts. hearings no later than Dec. 9, with ley’s legal team basically has struck gressional map with 14 rather up a handful of votes during the While the winner of the elec- written orders filed by Dec. 11. out. So far. than 13 congressional districts. county canvasses. tion could have a big impact on N.C. Even if Newby survives all the “Of the 92 Beasley county pro- The U.S. Supreme Court has left Beasley’s protests are identical. law and policy, the courts should be recounts with a lead, the fate of tests filed, nearly 70 have already the states in charge of handling Each claims there were flaws in the able to operate without any serious the election will sit with the Demo- been dismissed by the Demo- lawsuits alleging partisan count and/or violations of elections disruptions if the challenges per- crat-majority state elections board. crat-controlled county boards. Not a gerrymandering, and North laws “sufficient to cast doubt on the sist, says Mike Schietzelt, a consti- The Beasley team filed 92 county single county has upheld the Beas- Carolina has spent most of the apparent results of the election.” tutional law fellow at Regent Uni- protests, according to the state Re- ley protests in an evidentiary hear- past three decades in court The same voter information for all versity School of Law. Schietzelt, a publican Party and elections board ing. According to county boards and over its districts. counties is included in each protest. former John Locke Foundation le- records. publicly available data, a large per- If Newby wins, Republicans can Her lawyers didn’t tailor the pro- gal analyst, worked for former N.C. The chief justice’s lawyers are centage of the Democrat votes the claim a clean sweep in this year’s tests for different problems in indi- Chief Justice Mark Martin, who’s asking the state board to reverse de- Beasley campaign is attempting to statewide judicial races. They won vidual counties. now dean of the law school. cisions made by county boards, also revive through protests were count- all five Appeals Court contests Newby’s legal team filed sepa- The chief justice is the state’s with Democratic majorities, and in- ed during the county canvas pro- and two other Supreme Court rac- rate protests, challenging absentee top judicial administrator, appoints clude Beasley ballots or reject New- cess, and the others were lawfully es. Those were by more comfort- ballots that may have had errors, the chief judge of the Court of Ap- by ballots that were handled by lo- denied,” Whatley said. able margins, ranging from 70,000 missing signatures, incomplete ad- peals, picks judges for the Business cal officials. Who sits in the chief justice’s to 190,000 votes. A Newby victo- dresses, or other flaws that legal- Court, and handles other duties The outcome will test the seat matters: ly could prevent them from being outside the courtroom. » ry would give the Supreme Court board’s independence. Beasley opposes Opportuni- three Republicans and four Demo- counted. When the court’s new term be- “The seemingly never-ending ty Scholarships, which give crats. Republicans took control of The county and state elections gins Jan. 1, six of the seven justices chief justice’s race reminds us that low-income children a vouch- the Court of Appeals, holding 11 of boards will decide these protests. will be in place — Democrats Robin North Carolina’s statewide election er to help offset the costs of the 15 seats. Democrats had an 8-7 Since the margin at the end of Hudson, Sam Ervin IV, Anita Earls, apparatus is run by a board dom- attending a private school their majority in the past year’s session. the county canvasses was less than and Mike Morgan; and Republicans inated by Democrats,” said Mitch The victories were a major up- 0.5% (0.0077%, to be precise), Bea- Phil Berger Jr. and Tamara Barrin- » parents choose. Kokai, John Locke Foundation se- She sided with the Democratic set. A Civitas Poll released in late sley requested a recount. After the ger. The state constitution says nior political analyst. “Republican governor over the Republi- October — one of the few pub- recount, Newby’s lead shrank by when the chief’s spot is open, the legislators tried more than once in can-led legislature in a 2017 lic polls on judicial races in N.C. — five votes. senior associate justice, in this case recent years to transform the state showed Beasley with a nine-point The 3% hand-eye recount is Hudson, would assume the duties » separation-of-powers lawsuit. elections board into a bipartisan A state lawsuit is pending over lead over Newby. An analysis of next. of the chief until the slot is filled. outfit, but state courts foiled those the status of voter ID — which television ad buys from the Bren- In a blog post, Andy Jackson, “Justice Hudson has served efforts. So now every decision this is part of the state constitution. nan Center for Justice showed Re- elections analyst for the Civitas In- 14 years on the court, and she'll board makes will face extra scruti- Beasley has called an earlier publicans were outspent 7-1. stitute, explained how. have administrative support from ny. Observers will look for signs of voter ID requirement the prod- A Newby win also would sus- “Every county will have to do the [Administrative Office of the partisan bias. It’s hard to imagine tain a record that’s held since North a hand recount in at least one pre- Courts] and the administrative staff » uct of “confusion by design.” that any outcome favoring Beas- The General Assembly will re- Carolina’s 1971 Constitution was cinct or early voting site (voting lo- at the court. I suspect she'll be pre- ley could escape accusations that draw the state’s legislative dis- ratified. No recount has overturned cation),” he wrote. The number of pared to assume those duties with- Democrats have twisted the rules tricts. Because a lot of people a statewide election. precincts recounted will move up out a hitch should the need arise,” to benefit one of their own." have moved to North Carolina Here’s how the race played out. based on how many locations are in Schietzelt said in an email to Caro- In a statement, NCGOP chair- since the 2010 census, lawmak- Newby led the unofficial election the county: lina Journal. CAROLINA JOURNAL // DECEMBER 2020 11 ELECTION TIMELINE Republicans keep their majorities in the House and Senate BY LINDSAY MARCHELLO AND JULIE HAVLAK

Sept. 22 The state elections board issues a new set of guidelines extending the ballot receipt deadline until nine days after the election, Nov. 12. The guidelines provide a way for voters to cure deficient absentee ballots, including for missing witness signatures. U.S. COURTS U.S. YOUTUBE The rule change comes from a Federal Judge William Osteen Democratic super-litigator Marc Elias settlement between Democratic super-litigator Marc Elias and the state elections board behind closed doors. Republican lawmakers accuse the board of Oct. 3 Aug. 4 Aug. 21 Sept. 4 colluding with Elias to change Federal Judge James Dever issues rules of the election while it’s a temporary restraining order Federal Judge William Osteen The N.C. State Board of Elections Absentee balloting begins in underway. Senate leader Phil blocking the mid-election rule upholds the requirement for one issues rules complying with North Carolina. Berger, R-Rockingham, and House changes. witness to sign an absentee ballot Osteen’s order. The board is made Speaker Tim Moore, R-Cleveland, and declines to extend the ballot up of three Democratic members file suit in federal court receipt deadline. and two Republicans. challenging the settlement.

Oct. 14 Oct. 15 Oct. 16 Oct. 20 Oct. 22 Osteen permanently blocks the Early voting begins and goes on Republican legislative leaders In a 12-3 vote, the full Court of Republican legislative leaders State Board of Elections’ attempt to smash previous records for request an injunction from the 4th Appeals ruled that the State Board seek relief from the U.S. Supreme to eliminate the absentee ballot voter turnout. More than 4.5 U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals. of Elections could set the deadline Court. witness requirement but doesn’t million North Carolinians vote for accepting and counting mail- rule on other issues like the ballot early, blowing past the 3.1 million in ballots nine days after the receipt deadline. early votes cast during the 2016 election, rather than the three-day election. window as prescribed in state law.

Oct. 28 Nov. 3 Nov. 17 The U.S. Supreme Court, by a Election Day! Republicans keep Incumbent Chief Justice Cheri 5-3 vote, refuses Republican their majorities in the state House Beasley requests a recount of the legislative leaders’ request to and Senate. Democrats wrest only 5 million ballots in the statewide enforce a state law setting the one seat away from Republicans chief justice race after Republican ballot deadline at Nov. 6. in the Senate, creating a 28-22 challenger Paul Newby comes out Republican majority. Democrats on top with a less than 400-vote lose ground in the House as lead. Beasley's team files protests, Republicans collect another four demanding that elections boards Oct. 31 seats for a majority of 69-51. count absentee and provisional Early voting ends. Republicans also maintain a 6-4 ballots they already rejected. majority in the Council of State. Beasley targets ballots cast by Gov. Roy Cooper wins re-election, Democrats and unaffiliated Nov. 25 defeating Lt. Gov. Dan Forest, a voters. Her protests include only Republican. Republicans storm the Nov. 13 a handful of Republican voters, The board was scheduled to end partisan makeup of the courts. Local elections boards hold reports the News and Observer. the recount to decide who will be They weaken the Democrats 6-1 canvassing meetings to ensure Newby files protests of his own, the next chief justice of the N.C. majority on the state Supreme audits were completed and ballots alleging deceased voters somehow Supreme Court. Court and sweep all five races for were counted correctly. cast dozens of votes. the N.C. Court of Appeals. North Dec. 2 Carolina delivers its electoral The first recount in the chief votes to President Trump, and justice race ends. Newby leads Republican incumbent U.S. Sen. by 401 votes. Beasley requests a Thom Tillis defeats his Democratic "hand-eye" recount of a sample opponent in the most expensive AP POOL AP of ballots. The state board sets a Senate race in the country. U.S. Sen. Thom Tillis Dec. 18 deadline to hear protests. 12 CAROLINA JOURNAL // DECEMBER 2020 ELECTIONS

tunities for their children’s educa- Election tion that the wealthy enjoy.” The wins were especially sig- nificant since Republicans were 2020: It's a running under election district maps redrawn to favor Democrats. wrap... mostly The Democratic Party’s map- making expert made the current maps, Sen. Ralph Hise, R-Mitchell, continued from PAGE 1 said in a news release Nov. 4. “Hopefully this puts to rest the decade-long redistricting saga,” he Voters in the 2020 election said. turned out in record numbers, cast- Split-ticket voters yield ing 5.5 million votes in North Car- olina. That’s a 75% turnout rate, unexpected results show data from the N.C. State Board of Elections. The state has The choice was clear in the rac- 7.36 million registered voters, up es for the state legislature. But from 6.92 million in 2016. In that some tickets were split as voters General Election, 4.77 million peo- who checked the box for Republi- ple — 69% of registered voters — cans also re-elected Cooper, a Dem- cast ballots. ocrat, to serve another term as gov- This year’s high turnout may ernor. have tightened the races. Surprising as it is, the Trump/ The closest election in North Cooper voter played a significant Carolina was the race for N.C. Su- role in the election, Bryson said in a preme Court chief justice. At the Nov. 19 presentation. end of Election Day, Republican Cooper has received much Paul Newby led incumbent Dem- criticism for his economic shut- CJ FILE PHOTO FILE CJ ocratic Chief Justice Cheri Beas- downs and emergency orders amid ley by 3,742 votes. Political scien- LEGISLATIVE GAINS. Senate leader Phil Berger sees GOP gains as an affirmation of their economic policies. The wins COVID-19. But that criticism wasn’t tists expected the race to flip back were especially significant since Republicans were running under election district maps redrawn to favor Democrats. enough to turn unaffiliated and toward Beasley as absentee bal- Democratic voters away from Coo- lots were counted. But the race per, Civitas found in its poll. The flip-flopped several times as the Trump/Cooper voter is somewhat remaining votes were tallied and provided to election officials were Legislative gains Senate, leaving the GOP with 28- less likely to be Republican, mak- the results certified. As of Nov. 23, registered Democrat or unaffiliat- for the GOP 22 control. The gains still don’t ing up just 30% of those respon- Newby was leading with 420 votes. ed. Only nine were Republicans. give the GOP a supermajority — dents who said they voted for both The defeat isn’t sitting well It’s events like these that cause North Carolina turned red on which they’d need to overturn Coo- the president and the governor. with Beasley, who filed formal pro- voters to question election out- multiple levels of the election, par- per’s vetoes — but their hold will About 38% were Democrats, and tests in 89 of the state’s 100 coun- comes. Even so, says Civitas Insti- ticularly in the legislative races. provide a check on executive pow- 33% were unaffiliated voters. These ties. Beasley demanded a recount. tute President Donald Bryson, “It’s The outcome surprised those who er. voters are working-class, a demo- Democratic-controlled election heartening that a wide majority of expected a blue wave for Demo- “Voters made a clear choice,” graphic that’s key to Trump’s popu- boards should accept previously North Carolina voters believe that crats. Polls showed Republicans said Senate leader Phil Berger, list viewpoint, Bryson said. rejected provisional and absentee such a contentious election cycle trailing Democrats going into Elec- R-Rockingham. “Our record for The split vote between gover- ballots, she said. was administered fairly.” tion Day. But after results were tal- the last decade is clear: a boom- nor and president isn’t extraordi- That’s no coincidence. An in- And voters can walk away from lied, Republicans saw a gain of four ing economy that we intend to re- nary, said Mitch Kokai, senior politi- vestigation from the News and Ob- 2020’s results with insights that additional seats in the N.C. House, build, lower taxes, and giving par- cal analyst for the John Locke Foun- server showed a majority of the may help inspire more faith and re- securing a 69-51 majority. Demo- ents, even parents from lower-in- continued NEXT PAGE 3,200 names Beasley’s campaign silience in the next election. crats took just one seat in the N.C. come households, the same oppor-

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Control of 61 commission control of the House for the first Politicians boards will set a record for Repub- time since 1998, and Tillis was licans. Democrats held 89 coun- named speaker. He served in the aren’t born; ty commissions in 1976. Repub- role until 2014, when he ran for licans then began gaining ground and won a U.S. Senate seat. in fits and starts. But it took un- Tillis recently won re-election they’re trained til the 2010s for the GOP to hold to the Senate, edging Democrat- a majority of county commission ic opponent Cal Cunningham by boards. two percentage points. continued from PAGE 1 The wins give Republicans Josh Dobson, North Caroli- a strategic edge, said Mitch Ko- na’s newly elected labor com- County Commissioners said in a kai, senior political analyst at the missioner, also got his start in lo- Nov. 17 news release. One hun- John Locke Foundation. cal politics. Before running for dred five of the state’s 587 com- “That’s good news for Repub- the N.C. House in 2014, Dobson missioners are new — about 18% licans because it is helpful for was a commissioner for McDow- of total seats. Republicans will them as they train the next batch ell County. From there, the Re- lead 61 of the 100 county boards. of state legislators and run for publican became a member of the Democrats will hold 37. Each par- statewide office,” Kokai said. state House. He announced his

CJ PHOTO BY DON CARRINGTON DON BY PHOTO CJ ty represents about half of the Plenty of heavy-hitting N.C. candidacy for labor commission- CAL CUNNINGHAM. Cunningham spent nearly $50 million to market himself state’s population. politicians started in local roles. er in 2019, and he won the race before voters. Tillis spent $18 million but won by 95,635 votes. Cunningham is Majority control will flip from Republican U.S. Sen. Thom against Democrat Jessica Holmes pictured here speaking with young women on Election Day. Democrat to Republican in six Tillis began his career in 2002, by just one point. counties, the association said. on the board of commissioners The trend has a long histo- Caswell, Franklin, Guilford, Lee, for the town of Cornelius. From ry. Republican Gov. Jim Martin continued from PREVIOUS PAGE nearly $50 million to market him- Montgomery, and Richmond there, Tillis ascended into state served three terms as a Meck- self before voters. Tillis spent $18 counties turned from blue to red. politics. lenburg County commissioner in dation. When it comes to voting for million. Just two county boards are split He ran for the N.C. House in the 1960s. Martin also served as governor, residents may be more fo- Tillis won by 95,635 votes. evenly between Republicans and 2006 and was re-elected three a president of the state commis- cused on electing someone they Similarly, Cooper outspent For- Democrats. times. In 2010, Republicans won sioners association. think will “get things done.” est by huge margins, dropping close Forest also didn’t make for a to $50 million on the race. While From county commissions to the North Carolina General Assembly strong candidate against Cooper, the governor still outstripped his Twenty percent of the 2020-21 BERTIE COUNTY: Ernestine Bazemore (N.C. Senate, District 3) Kokai and Bryson said. The Repub- opponent, Forest — who spent General Assembly is composed of lican should have focused his mes- $4.46 million in the same time- former county commissioners, the ALAMANCE COUNTY: Amy Galey (N.C. Senate, District 24) association said. Newly elected saging on how he would strength- frame — narrowed Cooper’s lead to CRAVEN COUNTY: Steve Tyson (N.C. House, District 3)* en the state economy and rebuild four points. Pollsters predicted For- members of the “county caucus” small businesses affected by Coo- est would lose by double digits. include the list at right. WAKE COUNTY: Abe Jones (N.C. House, District 38)* per’s shutdowns. Republicans beat Democrats be- CUMBERLAND COUNTY: Diane Wheatley (N.C. House, District 43)* Instead, he became known as cause they knew how to run a dis- the anti-mask candidate. That may ciplined ground game, political sci- HARNETT COUNTY: Howard Penny (N.C. House, District 53) have hurt him with some key demo- entists have said again and again. RICHMOND COUNTY: Ben Moss (N.C. House, District 66) graphics, especially among voters Most Democrat campaigners spent 65 and older. their summer indoors, holding vir- DAVIDSON COUNTY: Sam Watford (N.C. House, District 80)* Republicans won big on Election tual meetings and avoiding in-per- BUNCOMBE COUNTY: Tim Moffitt (N.C. House, District 117)* Day because they knew in-person son events. campaigning yields the best results. Republicans, like Democrats, HAYWOOD COUNTY: Mark Pless (N.C. House, District 118) This was evident in the Senate race used mail, television, and cable to Gov. Jim Martin served as Meck- MACON COUNTY: Karl Gillespie (N.C. House, District 120) between Republican Sen. Thom Til- reach their base. But they also got lenburg County commissioner in lis and Democratic challenger Cal out. They knocked on doors. They the 1960s. *Former commissioner Cunningham. Cunningham spent energized voters.

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FACTS www.johnlocke.org/podcast 14 CAROLINA JOURNAL // DECEMBER 2020 COMMENTARY Truitt to put students, not politics, at center of education policy

LM: What was it like on a new day. They have been INTERVIEW election night, watching incredibly gracious. They the numbers come in? have brought an outside person, a North Carolinian CT: Just like during the who no longer works in primary, there is a certain the system, to help us with amount of anxiety about planning and getting to whether you are going to know each other, basically win or lose. For me, as a so we can start from a place first-time candidate, I just of trust. I have had multiple wanted the campaign sea- conversations with board son to be over. My parents, leadership, and I feel sup- who live in Ohio, came to ported 100% already. Catherine Truitt be with me and my family. State Superintendent-elect LM: State of North Carolina We all went out to dinner It sounds kind of like a Tuesday evening, and then mediation. we spent a little time at a As the newly elected state CT: superintendent of public watch party, like 10 min- It is. He is Dr. Terry instruction, Catherine Truitt utes. Then we came home Holliday, a former superin- will oversee North Carolina’s and watched the results. It tendent for Statesville-Ired- vast public education system, was an incredibly humbling ell schools. He went on to which spent more than $14 experience to watch those become the commissioner billion this school year. But she numbers come in. I’m just of education in Kentucky, won’t be doing it alone. so grateful for everyone and he’s back in North who voted for me, but, at Carolina. Truitt, a Republican, defeated the same time, I was imme- LM: Democratic candidate Jen diately thinking about how ON DAY ONE. Catherine Truitt plans to focus on early literacy, alongside the University of North One of the criticisms Carolina system, business leaders in our state, and the State Board of Education strategic plan. Mangrum for the state’s top I can represent all people in of outgoing Superinten- education position. Truitt won our state. dent Mark Johnson’s ad- 51% of the vote. ministration was a lack of LM: Truitt is chancellor of Western You have said that graduate with that are part need to be involved. You transparency. How would Governors University North students were at the of a bona fide career path, Students at the present things so they you approach dealing with Carolina, a nonprofit online center of your campaign. and then other districts are clear, obtainable, and the media and the public? What will that look like in are still offering only first center means nonthreatening. And you university catering to CT: nontraditional students. Before your administration? aid. That’s not part of a real that when we are keep students at the center Part of this role is to be career path. We also have of the conversation. I’m available to the media. Part that, she served as the senior CT: making decisions education adviser to Gov. Pat Students being at the the state work force and looking at this team that is of this role is to share the McCrory. center in my administration education attainment goal, about everything starting to come together story of what is going on means that when we are which starts at K-12 and already, and it’s all people in our state, our districts, Truitt says she’s putting making decisions about goes all the way through the from what my who have a reputation for and in our schools with together a team at the everything from what my university system. I want to team is going to being student-centered. the public, legislators, and Department of Public team is going to look like have someone be part of my look like to how That’s how you build con- other superintendents. Instruction who will put to how we engage with the team who is wholly engaged sensus. There will be complete students first, while also legislature, and what we in those two things, as well we engage with transparency in my admin- LM: engaging educators, business prioritize has to start with as [expecting] districts to the legislature, What are your day istration, and I will have leaders, and legislators to the question of how does make sure that students are one priorities as state an open-door policy with improve educational outcomes this benefit the student? getting what they need to and what we superintendent? superintendents. and student performance. Is this what’s right for stu- be ready for that alternative prioritize has to CT: LM: In an interview with the Friday dents? So as I am building pathway. I am going to have a Your competitor, Jen Institute, Truitt shared how she a team and thinking about start with the team that is ready to go on Mangrum, expressed an LM: wants to tackle a 25-year- what those position titles You have a background question of how day one. We are going to fo- interest in joining the old funding lawsuit that has are, I’m thinking about how in nontraditional educa- does this benefit cus on early literacy, along- state education board. influenced K-12 education this will impact the vision tion. How does that inform side the University of North What do you think about policy in North Carolina. that I have for improving your approach to improv- the student. Carolina system, business that? Including the General Assembly outcomes for students in ing public education? leaders in our state, and the CT: is a critical step in resolving the our states. I can give you an State Board of Education That is 100% up to the CT: dispute. Truitt wants to ensure example. In terms of my ap- a way that will change the strategic plan. These three governor. That is his deci- lawmakers are part of the I want to include a cre- proach, I’ve been looking at way we are doing things, things are going to con- sion to make. conversation. ative position on my team the data of our student out- and that starts with build- verge, and we are going to LM: that is about liaisoning with comes, and I’m just stunned ing a team that is innova- be laser-focused on ensuring Any last thoughts? Carolina Journal Associate work force development. at how stagnant it’s been tive in itself and having all children in our state are Editor Lindsay Marchello sat CT: One of the things I talked over the past 35 years. I’m a work structure that is reading proficiently. I just want to say that down with Truitt on Nov. 12 to about in my campaign is the all about looking at the innovative on its face. our children’s education is talk about her vision for North LM: idea that not all kids need to innovation it’s going to take With the past too precious to play politics Carolina’s future and how LM: graduate and immediately to serve all students. WGU Any time you go about administration there with, and I am going to she plans to fix the tenuous embark on a four-year col- is the definition of disrup- disrupting things, some was tension between try my hardest to separate relationship between the State lege experience. We have to tive innovation, because people get nervous. How the Department of politics from this role — to Board of Education and the have alternative pathways it leveraged technology to do you do that in a way Public Instruction do what is right. The fact state superintendent's office. to that traditional route. As offer something to people to get buy-in from the and the State Board of that we elect this position part of looking into that, who would not have it establishment? Education. How will makes it difficult to elimi- I learned that our career otherwise. It’s a new audi- you go about rebuilding nate politics, so let me just CT: and technical education ence, and it’s done in such I think you just hit on that relationship so you say that I cannot eliminate certificates are not equitable a way that is so efficient it: That’s getting buy-in. can work together and politics, but I’m going to do in our state. We have some and cost-effective that it’s You get buy-in by commu- accomplish those goals? as much as I can to take the wealthier districts that changing the original mod- nicating, communicating, temperature down and keep This interview was edited for CT: might have six different IT el that it sought to disrupt. communicating, and you The State Board of this about students instead clarity and space. certificates that you can I want to be innovative in involve the people who Education believes that it is of politics. CAROLINA JOURNAL // DECEMBER 2020 15 EDUCATION N.C. voters want state government gridlock, debate

liberal voters said they like a united to the General Assembly to pass government. Interestingly, a robust legislation. Further than that, vot- 60% majority of moderates said ers also chose to drastically change they want the state government to the partisan makeup of the state be divided. courts, with Republicans sweeping

DONALD BRYSON Truthfully, these poll and elec- all eight seats up for election on COLUMNIST tion results are signs of a healthy the Supreme Court and Court of republic. No doubt, partisanship is Appeals, thus changing the Su- a political driver in modern politics. preme Court from a 6-1 Democrat But it appears that N.C. voters are majority to a slimmer 4-3 Democrat CRITICAL LESSONS continue thoughtful, contemplative, and majority. to come out of the results of the critical of any single person or party In other words, Cooper’s cam- 2020 elections. One that seems amassing too much power. paign was wrong to suggest he re- to have escaped some of the Does that sound familiar? It ceived an overwhelming mandate political establishment is North should. The Founding Fathers had from voters to expand Medicaid Carolinians don’t want one political similar concerns. or any other part of his agenda. party to dominate. They want a executive, legislative, and judicial were of the same party, or preferred In Federalist 47, James Madi- Neither Democrats nor Republi- slower, more deliberative state branches of state government and a divided government, in which the son wrote, “The accumulation of cans received a mandate from N.C. government, rather than one party states that those powers “shall be governor and the legislative ma- all powers, legislative, executive, voters. changing public policy unimpeded forever separate and distinct from jorities were of different parties. A and judiciary, in the same hands, No, voters in the Old North State from Murphy to Manteo. each other.” Furthermore, all three near-majority (49%) of voters said whether of one, a few, or many, made a clear decision for gridlock, American elections aren’t binary. branches are elected by the people, they liked a divided government, and whether hereditary, self-ap- debate, and compromise. As voters, we typically think of and this year the people did not while 41% said they preferred a pointed, or elective, may justly be If politicos in Raleigh want to election results as either a win for vote a straight ticket. unified government. pronounced the very definition of curry favor with voters statewide, Democrats or Republicans, and that While Cooper, a Democrat, was Digging into the internals of tyranny.” they should be willing to engage in party is in control for the next four re-elected as the state’s chief exec- the poll, it becomes more interest- Like most states, North Carolina’s transparent and substantive public years. utive, Republicans swept all three ing. Looking at this question on government is based mostly on the policy debate. Gov. Roy Cooper’s campaign’s races for the state Supreme Court party registration lines, majorities federal system, with an intricate Because while voters may not election victory statement is an and will return majorities to both of unaffiliated and Republican balance and separation of powers commonly use words like “tyr- example, in which the campaign chambers of the General Assembly. voters strongly preferred a divided between government branches. anny,” it’s clear they’re skeptical interpreted the election results as a And evidence shows that voters government. However, a plurality In that same line of thinking, of consolidated power, and that mandate for the governor’s agenda. made an active choice to do just of registered Democrats said they elections should very rarely be skepticism could lead to electoral But that’s not how our political that. would like a unified government. viewed as a mandate from voters consequences in the next election. system works. It is not how the The latest poll from the Civitas The poll numbers break down for one party to run roughshod over 2020 N.C. elections played out be- Institute asked N.C. voters if they similarly on an ideological basis. another. Donald Bryson is president and cause Gov. Roy Cooper’s allies didn’t preferred a united state govern- A plurality (48%) of self-described Yes, voters re-elected Cooper. At CEO of the Civitas Institute, a public successfully cross the finish line. ment, in which the governor and conservative voters prefer a divided the same time, voters sent Repub- policy think tank in Raleigh. Reach The N.C. Constitution defines the majorities in the state legislature government, while a plurality of lican legislative majorities back him @donaldbryson.

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families. Even more impressive In 2018, the NCAE sponsored a That is why we’ve! was that 86% of Republicans and massive, one-day walkout replicat- Come to town! 79% of Democratic and unaffiliat- The Democratic ed on a much smaller scale on May Come to town! ed respondents agreed that parents Party positions on Day 2019. By then, a faction of rad- Done with vouchers! should have the ability to choose school choice are not ical members of the NCAE began Done with vouchers! their child’s school. waging a fanciful battle against And for-profits! DR. TERRY STOOPS Currently, around 21% of N.C. politically tenable in a bogeymen called “privatizers.” And for-profits! VICE PRESIDENT FOR RESEARCH students attend a school of choice, state where a majority “For most of the last decade, We’re the people! JOHN LOCKE FOUNDATION and that market share will likely believe that parents North Carolina’s public schools We’re the people! increase this year. Parents were have faced an unrelenting attack We will stop it! dissatisfied with clumsy school should have access to by forces wishing to privatize our We will stop it! uring a lively discussion of district reopening plans and educational options for public schools,” wrote the lead- In 2020, Red4Ed leadership the 2020 elections spon- increasingly opted for charter, their children. ers of North Carolina’s Red4Ed attained top man positions within sored by the John Locke private, and home schools. Prelim- effort in anticipation of the 2019 the NCAE, and the battle against Foundation, political consultant inary enrollment figures published walkout. the “privatizers” became a central DBrad Crone observed: by the N.C. Department of Public “In addition to making it harder tenet in their advocacy efforts. “Here’s the message that [Dem- Instruction indicate that district currently operating charters. to give our students what they de- According to internal documents, ocrats] need to hear. Voters in membership dropped by around To be sure, these are long-stand- serve, it has demoralized educators the union’s advocacy campaigns North Carolina want school choice. 5% compared to the same time last ing positions within the N.C. Dem- and driven them from the profes- have three goals: “1). Win real They want to have the option to year. ocratic Party. In recent years, how- sion. That is part of the privatizers’ improvements in the lives of our send their kids to the school that But convincing the N.C. Demo- ever, black Democrats have voiced goal. If we can’t keep educators for people. 2). Build the strength of they think is going to provide them cratic Party to refrain from attack- support for school choice programs. longer than five years, our students our organization. 3). Change the the best opportunity to get an ed- ing charter and private schools is They recognized that children of won’t get their needs met, and ed- balance of power with respect to ucation so they can be productive easier said than done. The 2020 color are more likely to be trapped ucators will never have any power.” the privatizers.” and prosperous in the 21st century. party platform explicitly opposes in failing district schools and suffer According to the N.C. Depart- It’s not necessary to identify the Clearly.” private school vouchers, claim- a lifetime of limited opportunities ment of Public Instruction, teacher “privatizers” by name. The term He’s right. Public opinion polls ing that these programs “harm and financial hardship as a result. attrition rates have declined for is merely pejorative shorthand for and surveys agree that people our traditional public schools by “It’s time for us to adopt a four straight years and dropped anyone who supports public or of all political and ideological diluting the financial support for paradigm in which school choice by 1 1/2 percentage points during private school choice initiatives stripes believe that families should those institutions, making our options are not viewed in an that period. that deviate from the union’s have broad access to educational system less socio-economically di- adversarial light,” said Democratic They even managed to capture preferred district monopoly model. options. A January 2020 Civitas verse and encouraging families to state Sen. Ben Clark at a press that sentiment in a chant devised But as Crone observed, the NCAE Institute poll found that 70% of Re- abandon the public-school system conference in 2017. Unfortunately, for the 2019 walkout: and the Democratic Party positions publicans, 67% of Democrats, and that serves everyone.” The party Clark’s call for a truce has been Privatizers! on school choice are not politically 62% of unaffiliated respondents also supports reinstituting the 100- drowned out by the N.C. Asso- Privatizers! tenable in a state where a majority supported the Opportunity Schol- school cap on charter schools, a ciation of Educators, the Demo- Won’t get us down! believe that parents should have arship Program, a private school measure that would require closing crat-aligned affiliate of the nation’s Won’t get us down! access to educational options for voucher program for low-income or reconstituting half of the state’s largest teacher union. That is why we’ve! their children. CAROLINA JOURNAL // DECEMBER 2020 17 COMMENTARY Unifying the country starts with the education system

world … extending over the major servatives especially, federalism, domains of human activity from decentralization, and local control sports to science.” He sees such have been the watchwords. information as neither narrow nor Content, too, can be controver- elitist. Instead, it’s unifying. sial. Because, as soon as schools America’s founders, who em- teach content instead of generic JENNA A. ROBINSON braced Enlightenment rather than skills and capacities, someone COLUMNIST Romantic values, knew this to be must choose which content to true: teach. Will it be 1619 or 1776? “The Enlightenment, with But it’s worth doing, and, Hirsch ducation reformer E.D. Hirsch its faith in logic and science to believes, it’s possible. may have discovered the advance the human condition, If all goes well, maybe we can cure for our current political had created the United States. return to education as Hirsch expe- divisions — but it won’t be easy. Jefferson and Franklin had been its rienced in it the 1930s: EHis prescription is a total over- children. The Enlightenment has “The curriculum I received was haul of the K-12 education system, also produced the common school, nation-centered, not child-cen- as well as our schools of education. under the logical view that a com- tered. We learned U.S. history. We Hirsch lays out his plan in a new mon system of language, laws, and honored American founders. We book, How to Educate a Citizen: EDUCATION REFORMER E.D. HIRSCH. Teaching shared content gives students a ideals would enable the new per- learned by heart the preambles The Power of Shared Knowledge to common understanding of our shared history and culture as Americans. son — the American — to weaken to the Declaration of Indepen- Unify a Nation. or break the old ethnic bonds and dence and the Constitution. We For many years, Hirsch has form a thriving new nation.” learned about the Civil War. We been an outsider in education Hirsch credits Noah Webster memorized not only the Pledge of circles. While the education that have developed within our It was this philosophy that gave with the creation and mainte- Allegiance and the ‘Star-Spangled establishment focused on critical nation. us “whole language” instruction nance of national cohesion when Banner,’ but also the Gettysburg thinking, child-centered educa- Although most of Hirsch’s book instead of phonics, social studies America was young. “He foresaw Address. … My generation experi- tion, and skills instruction, Hirsch centers on K-12 education, reform instead of history, and culturally that the modern style of American enced elementary education that insisted that content matters. must start with higher educa- sensitive math lessons. None of democracy would have to be a was more or less the same across Hirsch’s new book expands on tion, specifically in our schools those methods work. At the same manufactured thing, founded on the land.” that theme. But he adds that of education, where the majority time, they prevent students from a common system of laws, values, This kind of shared, unifying, teaching shared content has of K-12 teachers learn from the assimilating the common lan- ethics, and a shared print lan- patriotic education is needed now another benefit: It gives students same misguided playbook. Hirsch guage, knowledge, and values that guage.” more than ever. Reading Hirsch’s a common understanding of our calls it educational romanticism, could tie them together as fellow But commonality has its detrac- new book is a good starting place. shared history and culture as “the idea that education should be citizens. tors. The last time the federal gov- Americans. individualized to accord with the Hirsch defines cultural literacy, ernment tried such an approach, Jenna Robinson is president of the Such commonality would go a child’s nature” and allow them to broadly, as “the basic information we got Common Core, which has James G. Martin Center for Academic long way to healing the great rifts “construct their own knowledge.” needed to thrive in the modern failed spectacularly. Among con- Renewal. Could law school be the worst higher education investment?

Texas Public Policy Foundation BY THE NUMBERS The root of the problem is law middle-class. But they don’t have titled “Objection! Law schools can school costs substantially more the means to pay lawyers hefty be hazardous to students’ financial than most students can afford to fees to handle their cases, and health.” 168 schools finance on their expected earnings that often means they have to go 73% of law schools fail the GEE, The study’s author, Andrew which compares total student loan after graduation. without an attorney. Gillen, explains the approach, “a indebtedness with earning power The big problem is that under The ABA’s high-cost, elitist GEORGE LEEF debt-to-earnings test called Gain- after graduation. American Bar Association accredi- vision of law school needs to give COLUMNIST ful Employment Equivalent. GEE tation rules, law school has to be a way to a free market in legal stud- compares the earnings of recent three-year program — 90 credits. A ies. North Carolina ought to be a graduates with the typical borrow- bation, between 8.6% and 12.8%; law school could lower the cost of path-setter in this regard. It should FOR DECADES, law school was er’s student loan debt to determine and fail, with more than 12.8% of getting a degree tremendously if it change its law to permit individu- a growth industry. Back in 1970, if students can afford their student earnings. could allow students to graduate als to take the bar exam whether there were 146 law schools with loan payments.” So, how did law schools fare? with, say, 60 credits. It would focus they have graduated from a tradi- an enrollment of 78,000 students; What he’s doing is following the Shockingly, 73% of the schools on the courses most important for tional, three-year, accredited law by 2013, there were 201 schools, method of the “Gainful Employ- for which Gillen was able to get the bar exam and subsequent legal school, attended a nonaccredited enrolling 139,000 students. Enroll- ment” regulations in place during data — 168 schools — fail. practice. Many students would law school, or merely “read law” as ment peaked in 2010 at 147,000. the Obama administration. Under Many of the schools that failed find that prospect attractive. Abraham Lincoln did. By 2015, we were seeing stories those regulations, schools could are smaller, but that doesn’t affect But any school that did would In response to the COVID-19 such as this one in the Wall lose eligibility for federal money if the overall picture very much. As lose its ABA accreditation. And pandemic, a few states have even Street Journal: “Fewer and Fewer their average student loan figures Gillen writes, “An astounding 68% that would be fatal in most states, waived the requirement of state Students are Applying to Law were too high compared with of law school graduates attended a since no one is permitted to take bar membership for people to School.” A number of law schools student earnings after gradu- program that fails GEE.” the bar examination without practice law. That might sound have closed since 2017, including ation. (Those regulations were In other words, a heavy majority first having graduated from an risky, but bar membership is no Valparaiso, Whittier, Savannah, applied, however, only to for-profit of law school graduates will face ABA-accredited law school. North more a guarantee of legal com- Arizona Summit, and Charlotte. institutions, when the problem of so high a burden of debt that their Carolina is among the 44 states petence than accreditation is a More are on thin ice. excessive debt was also found at schools would have been targeted that require a degree from such a guarantee of quality in a college or Evidently, many prospective law many public and nonprofit schools. under the Obama regulations if law school. There are good reasons university. students were figuring out that the Under Trump, the regulations were the regulations had been applied to change the law. Since the ABA is unlikely to high cost of three years of study suspended.) across the board. The very high cost of law school change its standards, it’s up to the necessary to earn a juris doctorate Following the old Gainful North Carolina’s law schools is no problem for those graduates states to release legal education wasn’t worth it in a glutted market Employment regulations, Gillen don’t do well under Gillen’s anal- who find high-paying jobs, but from its shackles. and were choosing other paths divides law schools into three cat- ysis. Campbell, Elon, N.C. Central, most of America’s legal needs after college. egories: pass, in which the typical Wake Forest, and even UNC fail. don’t come from wealthy people George Leef is director of research Just how right they were is graduate’s debt payments are no For Duke, the data weren’t avail- and big business. They come from at the James G. Martin Center for highlighted in a new study by the higher than 8.6% of earnings; pro- able. ordinary people who are poor or Academic Renewal. 18 CAROLINA JOURNAL // DECEMBER 2020 COMMENTARY TEN TAKEAWAYS The voters have spoken, now let’s get to work

said they’d lose the majority in want will be the Democrats’ down- either or both chambers. The pun- fall. North Carolinians are tired of dits and their polling were wrong. policies driven by divided parti- Turns out the Senate Republicans sanship and want solutions to the lost two seats they expected to problems they face. The General BECKI GRAY lose and won one back, for a net Assembly should give them what SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT loss of one seat. The Senate sits at they want. Whoever does that 28 Republicans and 22 Democrats. well will see benefits in 2022. JOHN LOCKE FOUNDATION The House Republicans picked Republicans swept all up four additional seats, bringing appellate court races this their majority to 69. Democrats year. With widely report- THE 2020 ELECTION is over. hold 51 seats. ed litigation and controversies Thankfully and finally. Maybe. Not Why did they win? 8.involving voter ID, separation of everyone is happy, and the process Was it gerrymandered powers, Opportunity Scholarships, may not be perfect, but it works districts? It’s true North concerns about law and order, better than any alternative. Before Carolina is gerrymandered, but and defunding the police, voters I close my notebook on what may 7.every state is. There are districts chose those judicial candidates very well be the most important that will reliably elect Democrats they felt could be trusted to uphold election of our lifetime — at least and those that will reliably elect law and order, fund the police and for now — here are some parting Republicans, as long as people are protect freedoms from government thoughts and takeaways: free to choose where they live. overreach. Again, policies matter. The difference is in competitive So does every single vote. The President Trump was right swing districts, where a near equal chief justice race was determined to insist that all measures number of each party and unaffil- by a few hundred votes, out of 5.4 be taken to ensure that choice of the DNC operatives; the every day for eight months during iated voters live. It’s the competi- million votes counted. every legal vote is counted and all scale was tipped in his favor from the COVID crisis, with tightly tive races in those swing districts County commissioners 1.legitimate allegations of fraud or the beginning. Had an unfettered controlled press conferences, and where Republicans won. placed local sales tax interference with the will of the primary occurred, the flaws that on the front page of major news- Was it Trump’s coattails? Biden increases on the ballot people are fully investigated. Rath- later sank his campaign may have papers and the nightly news. The won in four of the five districts in five counties. All were voted er than adding to the turbulence been discovered and saved him, media has been very friendly to that Republicans picked up. 9.down. There were six alcohol sales and polarization, everyone needs his family, and his party from em- Cooper. Forest’s grassroots style of Was it the money? Final cam- referendums in five cities. All were to know that the election results barrassment and defeat. Processes campaigning and connecting with paign finance reports aren’t in, approved. Wake and Mecklenburg are legitimate and have confidence work when they are played out. voters face to face was severely but what we have so far indicate counties approved four bond pro- in the integrity of the system. Both major political parties should hampered by COVID restrictions that Republicans were outspent posals, each by over 70%. Once all ballots are accounted for make note. imposed by the governor. Forest in legislative races by about $3.2 Elections have and all votes are counted, we must North Carolina’s U.S. was outspent, outexposed, and million. At least. winners and losers, move out from under the cloud of House delegation of 13 outmaneuvered, yet Cooper beat So, what was it? Good policy but they also pave suspicion and away from mistrust is now five Democrats, him by only 4.5 points. The gover- won. Both sides had good candi- the way for emerging leaders for on both sides. All candidates eight Republicans; 10 incumbents, nor should not take the outcome dates who delivered their message 10.the next election. Fresh faces I’m who will be sworn into office in 3.three freshmen; nine men, four as a mandate for his policies. to the voters. Republicans had keeping an eye on? Republicans January must carry the legitimacy women. No one should get too Steve Troxler, the incum- answers to address the problems Lisa Barnes and Danny Britt, and of their election as they begin to comfortable in those seats. North bent Republican com- North Carolinians care about: Democrats Jessica Holmes, Wiley lead, knowing the process worked Carolina is set to get a 14th district missioner of agriculture, affordable and accessible health Nickel, and Lucy Inman. I’m also and they have, in fact, been duly due to increases in population was the highest vote getter in care, support for law and order, wondering about the next steps elected. No longer a candidate, census numbers, most likely in an 5.the state. His opponent, a hobby safety and security in their homes for familiar faces: Republicans Pat they have been elected to govern urban county. All districts will be farmer who ran on an AOC-like and communities, choices in the McCrory, Mark Walker, Dan Forest, with the support of the people. No redrawn for the 2022 election by platform promoted through Tik- way kids are educated, a robust Tim Moore, Mark Meadows, and one should want this more than the Republican-controlled General Tok dance videos, delivered a mes- economy and opportunity through Lara Trump and Democrats Josh Joe Biden. Assembly. The governor has no sage that generated little inteerest jobs, and restrained government Stein, Patricia Timmons-Goodson, North Carolina’s Senate veto in redistricting. in this state. As North Carolinians, with low taxes and fewer regu- Erica Smith, and Cheri Beasley. race, the most expensive in Gov. Roy Cooper defeated we’re not woke. We love a guy on lations. Voters chose the policies U.S. history, with $287 mil- his opponent, Lt. Gov. Dan a tractor. that solve problems they care As I close my notebook from lion spent by all parties, serves as Forest, by 4.5 points. Coo- The biggest election about, and that’s why Republicans the 2020 election, it’s clear that 2.an illustration of the importance per outspent Forest — $36 million surprise was in the General won. To continue to follow Coo- integrity, trust, process, and policy primaries play in our election 4.to $11 million. As the incumbent Assembly. Pundits predict- per’s demands blindly rather than matter. The voters have spoken. process. Cal Cunningham was the governor, he’s been on TV almost 6.ed Republican losses, and some honor what their constituents Now let’s get to work. THIS IS WHAT OPPORTUNITY LOOKS LIKE. LEARN MORE ONLINE AT: WWW.CAROLINAJOURNAL.COM CAROLINA JOURNAL // DECEMBER 2020 19 ELECTIONS Four suggestions to help redistricting reformers avoid past pitfalls

that Republican policy shifts over the past decade in North Caroli- na — tax cuts, enhanced parental school choice, regulatory reforms — all result from gerrymandered MITCH KOKAI districts. That’s not true. SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST JOHN LOCKE FOUNDATION Suggestion #4

ith fresh census data Stop treating gerrymandering forcing N.C. lawmakers as all-purpose bogeyman. Repub- to draw new congressio- lican-drawn election maps do nal and legislative election maps not deserve credit or blame for Wnext year, we’re bound to hear calls Republican control over the state’s once again for redistricting reform. legislative chambers during the As a longtime reform supporter, past decade. I remain sympathetic to the cause. As N.C. House Speaker Tim But I hope those who take the lead Moore reminded reporters Nov. on the issue can avoid repeating 4, GOP lawmakers initially won critical mistakes from recent years. control of the legislature in 2010. Those mistakes have helped scut- Democrats drew the maps used tle past reform efforts. that year. This column offers four sugges- Gerrymandering certainly tions for reformers to consider. TRANSPARENCY. A three-judge panel listens to arguments in the 2019 Harper v. Lewis congressional redistricting case. played a role in boosting GOP The first involves one often-cited majorities during the 2012 elec- means of reform: an independent tions. But N.C. voters also elected redistricting commission. a Republican governor that year. Senate leader Phil Berger, Policies enacted over the next four R-Rockingham, offers a compelling redistricting. “On the Senate side, the standard legislative process. as large as 9-4. (Real-life gerry- years did not depend on Repub- counterargument for those who that’s going to be the point we Steering clear of the legal fight mandered districts boosted that licans holding more than a bare want to create a new mapmaking would start from — the way we makes sense for those who seek advantage by one, creating a 10-3 majority of legislative seats. group. handled things in 2019,” he said in broad-based, long-lasting, biparti- split.) One could make a stronger argu- “Where we’ve seen these a post-election news conference. san reform. Our system of geographic ment that gerrymandered districts commissions in other states, they “We’ll see if that’s a way for us to My third and fourth suggestions districts favors Republicans. helped GOP legislative superma- end up being populated by folks do it.” focus on use, abuse, and misuse of While Democrats tend to cluster jorities overcome a Democratic who are partisans of one sort or Suggestion #2 the term “gerrymandering” itself. closer together, Republican voters governor’s objections in 2017 and the other,” Berger said in a Nov. 4 It’s clear that both Democrats disperse throughout the state. 2018. But those supermajorities television interview. “So I think if and Republicans have used Just look at the latest presiden- were gone by 2019. you’re going to have folks who are Though the much-lauded 2019 mapmaking power to benefit their tial race. Throwing out third-party In some respects, this year’s con- partisans, they ought to be elected redistricting process resulted from own party while hurting their candidates, Donald Trump beat Joe gressional and legislative elections by the people of the state.” court cases, my suggestion No 2 opponents. By definition, they Biden by a margin of less than 51- mirrored those held in 2010. While This disagreement over the for redistricting reformers is sim- have engaged in gerrymandering. 49% in North Carolina. Yet Trump Republicans approved new election desirability of a new mapmaking ple: Don’t sue. But it’s a mistake for reformers to won 75 of the state’s 100 counties. districts, each map was based on group leads to suggestion No. 1. North Carolina’s election maps label gerrymandering as the sole Trump won those counties by a ideas originating from Democrats. Suggestion #1 generated decade-long court or even primary cause of electoral total margin of less than 800,000 Despite this fact, the GOP main- battles in both the 2000s, when and policy results they dislike. votes. Biden won his 25 counties tained control of both the state Democrats controlled the map- Suggestion #3 by more than 700,000 votes. House and Senate, as well as an 8-5 Focus less attention on who making process, and the 2010s, That same type of electoral con- majority within the congressional draws the maps. Focus more at- when Republicans held the upper centration plays out in geographic delegation. tention on good rules to constrain hand. Stop making dubious claims districts for congressional and “So there ought to be the end mapmakers. It’s almost certain that some about gerrymandering’s electoral legislative seats. Gerrymandering of this talk about gerrymandering North Carolina’s court-mandated Democratic interest group will impact. More specifically, drop plays no role in the residential and all this, ‘That’s why Republi- 2019 redistricting process led to an object to maps that result from Re- the argument that North Carolina patterns that produce such wide cans are in charge,’” Moore said. openness in electoral mapmaking publican-led redistricting in 2021. would face near-even splits in its disparities. “The reality is the voters of this the state never had seen before — State courts have set no clear-cut congressional delegation and both If reformers want results of con- state chose to have a Republican under Republicans or Democrats. standard of acceptable versus chambers of the General Assembly gressional and legislative elections majority in the state Senate and Lawmakers drew maps in public, unconstitutional partisanship in without gerrymandering. to reflect the close split of Demo- in the state House. And every time before in-person observers and election mapmaking. Future court Folks at Common Cause should cratic and Republican voters across these groups want to come in and THIS IS WHAT continuous video feeds. Even Dem- cases will test those boundaries. know better. When they helped the state, their proper target is not try to attack, they’re really insult- ocrats who voted against the 2019 That doesn’t mean redistricting round up a bipartisan group of gerrymandering. They should aim ing those voters.” maps praised the open process. reformers should play an active former N.C. Supreme Court justices instead to change our longstanding Facts on the ground tell us that In addition to the new level of role in the legal process. They risk in 2016 to design a “fair” congres- first-past-the-post electoral system any change in North Carolina’s OPPORTUNITY transparency, judges also ordered coming across more as partisan sional map, the result was far from based on geographic districts. redistricting process in 2021 will constraints that limited the operatives than independent a 50-50 split. All parties involved They should advocate adoption of require support from Moore, Berger, potential for partisan mapmaking supporters of good-government agreed the map was likely to yield proportional representation. That’s and a majority of their Republican LOOKS LIKE. mischief. Emphasizing those types reforms. That certainly held true a congressional delegation with six a goal that would require a much colleagues. It’s hard to imagine of rules for future redistricting for the group Common Cause in Republicans, four Democrats, and different strategy. reformers securing that support makes sense to this observer. recent years. Its lawsuits against three swing seats. In other words, There’s another way in which without following the suggestions That strategy also fits well N.C. maps effectively shut the door normal electoral circumstances reformers tend to blame gerryman- outlined above. with Berger’s comments about on any prospect of reform through could give the GOP an advantage dering incorrectly. They contend 20 CAROLINA JOURNAL // DECEMBER 2020 FROM THE PUBLISHER CARTOONS

Maskgiving that since March there have been These are the sobering numbers 340,000 “positive” test results. that» should concern all of us: Due to the hypersensitivity Roughly 4,000 North Carolina 2020 by the of our testing, in some of those businesses have closed since “cases” there may not be enough » March. of the virus present to constitute Our state has nearly 300,000 numbers an actual infection. Even the New fewer jobs than it did pre- York Times has been critical of pos- » COVID. itive test results, writing up to 90% Meanwhile, Cooper has prom- continued from PAGE 2 of “positive cases” barely contain a ised $500 million in taxpayer trace of virus. dollars to 38 corporations for Cooper and Cohen’s fearmonger- just over 10,000 jobs. solutions like expanding health ing to the contrary, North Carolin- It’s clear all of us aren’t “in this care capacity. Wear a mask, ians have done a good job dealing together.” As George Orwell said despite the fact the John Locke with the virus. There are numbers so well, “All animals are equal, but Foundation’s Jon Sanders and oth- we should be celebrating this some are more equal than others.” ers have written extensively about holiday» season: It’s been so long since the pandem- the failure of mask mandates. Nearly 90% of people with ic started that we’ve forgotten “14 For the record, I respect the coronavirus cases have already days to flatten the curve,” which virus and the havoc it can wreak » recovered. we’ve flattened so much no one on vulnerable communities, but I Less than 10% of our total case even talks about it anymore. don’t live my life in fear of it. What count involves active cases — Most frightening is the rise in I fear most about this virus is meaning a contagious infection the number of young adults in a government reaction to it, the eco- that can be transmitted to mental health crisis. According nomic fallout from that reaction, » another human being. to a recent Centers for Disease and the damage done to society. Active cases represent only Control survey, over 25% of young The Cooper-Cohen rhetoric is » 0.26% of our total population. adults between 18-34 years of age irresponsible. The numbers they Roughly 99.7% of people in have “seriously considered suicide toss around are designed to fright- North Carolina pose no threat in the past 30 days.” en rather than inform. Thankfully, of passing along the virus to COVID fear has some families Sanders tackles them, too. He reg- anyone. too scared to get together. Mothers ularly provides some much-needed Those numbers are good news, may not get to hug their adult chil- context for North Carolina’s COVID right? Yet we have lived 260- dren. Grandparents won’t get to numbers. plus days in this perpetual state hold their grandbabies, and guest As of this writing, the DHHS of emergency, governance by No. 11 may end up alone as he’s dashboard reports nearly 340,000 executive fiat. Cooper said that uninvited from a 2020 “maskgiv- total cases. That large number “by next Thanksgiving or even ing” feast. doesn’t mean there are hundreds sooner, we can put this pandemic For those willing to place COVID of thousands of North Carolinians behind us.” You read that correctly. numbers in context, feel free to walking around feverish, cough- We are staring at another possible invite No. 11. Odds are your dinner ing, struggling to breathe, infect- 12 months of mask madness and won’t turn into a super-spreader ing others, or — worse — lying economic shutdown. Now that’s event. Just close the blinds so no in a hospital bed. It just means frightening. one alerts the authorities. E.A. MORRIS FELLOWSHIP FOR EMERGING LEADERS

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Parity Eight factors shaped N.C. elections ver the course of 34 years that share is in the single digits. from this time-tested tactic until Parity. penning a column on N.C. That doesn’t mean the final weeks. Polling. extends politics and public policy, ticket-splitters are irrelevant. In Not to beat the nearly I’ve seen it all. North Carolina, the two partisan decayed corpse of a long-dead OOr so I thought. Until 2020 coalitions are nearly even. So, horse, but pollsters got it very down the came along. when a few Tar Heel voters — wrong this year. Clearest exam- It’s not that I proffered a passel disproportionately older voters ple: While Cooper won re-elec- of bad predictions for which I in rural areas, according to my tion by 4.4 points, the polling ballot must now do penance. After peg- analysis — decided to split their average going into Election Day ging many races wrong in 2016, I tickets, voting Trump and Tillis was +11 Cooper. Press. was more guarded in my prognos- for federal office and Roy Cooper At the risk of abusing continued from PAGE 2 tications this year. And the picks for governor, their choices were another cadaverous equine, I offered — that Donald Trump decisive. much of the media abandoned all Process. all but a handful of Piedmont and would win North Carolina but not Before the election, pretense of fairness and actively mountain counties. As recently as re-election, that U.S. Sen. Thom Democrats went to court to rooted — in news stories — for 1976, 89 counties had Democratic Tillis would secure a second challenge election rules the Republicans to lose. Platitudes. boards. term, and N.C. Republicans would General Assembly had previous- At least two bits During the 1980s and 1990s, retain their General Assembly ly enacted by bipartisan votes. of “conventional wisdom” ought Republicans rose steadily into com- and Council of State majorities — Democratic plaintiffs won an to be retired after the 2020 petition for local offices. Then they proved to be pleasingly precise. extension of the absentee-ballot elections. One is that politics is blasted through their previous blue Rather, I just think we have deadline but little else. If those largely about money. Another is ceiling in 2010. They didn’t just win never seen so many fascinating late-arriving ballots flip any out- that low-turnout elections favor congressional seats and take over trends come together in such comes, you can expect the issue Republicans and high-turnout both chambers of the General As- a compelling electoral perfor- of eight factors, each beginning to be re-litigated. elections favor Democrats. Pandemic. Public Safety. sembly. They won 49 county com- mance. with the same letter, that helped Not only was Republican missions. Over the next four cycles, Speaking of performance, shape the outcomes. COVID-19 a big issue in federal candidates tilted some votes by Polarized. the GOP became the majority party perhaps you’ve noticed that Like much of the and state races, but the pandemic speaking strongly against the in N.C. county government. I peppered the first few para- country, North Carolina has a also affected how campaigns looting and rioting that followed The trend continued this year, graphs of this column with words polarized electorate. Generations were run. Crucially, Repub- some Black Lives Matter protests as well. The number of Republi- beginning with “p.” That’s p ago, somewhere between a fifth lican-leaning groups started this summer. can-controlled boards jumped from for politics, of course. And after and a quarter of voters were will- canvassing for votes door-to-door And there you have it: my 56 to 61. pondering the election results a ing to split their tickets between during the summer, while Demo- eight p-factors that mattered in A decisive outcome? Not so fast. bit more, I have prepared a list the two major parties. Today, cratic-leaning groups shied away 2020. Are you persuaded? While each has its own government and political climate, counties differ BUDGET & SPENDING widely in population. Even as Republicans have been winning more and more local offices in rural and suburban counties, Good news on the state budget they’ve been losing ground in urban SINCE THE BEGINNING ones. of the enue collected in 2020-21 was for 2021 and have the fortitude » in the state’s prisons. It wasn’t that long ago that COVID-19 recession in March, actually due the previous year. In to stick to them, come what may. Public employees. Cooper re- the most populous one, Wake N.C. policymakers have been the thick of the initial coronavi- Here’s what my list would look peatedly vetoed pay raises for County, had a Republican county watching government revenues rus wave, the General Assembly like: teachers, betting that Dem- commission. Not long before that, and expenditures carefully. How postponed the tax-filing deadline » ocrats could transform the Mecklenburg’s board was also up big a hole would the econom- to July. Public health. With the resulting public frustration for grabs. Not any more. While a ic downturn poke in the state The fact that General Fund announcement of at least two into legislative gains. It was a few high-population counties still budget? Would cash-strapped revenue from July to October was effective COVID-19 vaccines bad bet. It’s time for the exec- have GOP boards, the party lost its localities come begging for aid? 18% higher than last year’s trend on the way, we can all breathe utive and legislative branches majority this year in the county Would lawmakers feel compelled is largely attributable to timing, a collective sigh of relief. to work out a reasonable way with the third-highest population, to raise taxes or cut spending not a fully recovered economy. Unfortunately, it will still be forward, including additional Guilford. drastically to balance the books? Still, a dollar in the treasury is many months until we reach adjustments for public em- As a result, while 61 of the state’s While we have no conclusive a dollar in the treasury. And even a critical mass of vaccina- ployees in other agencies and 100 counties now have Republican answers, the latest report from sales-tax revenues, which were tions. In the meantime, we’ll » departments. governments, about 51% of North the Office of the State Controller collected on a regular schedule, all have to do our part. That Economic recovery. For Carolinians live in counties with strengthens the case of the opti- still show a solid $220 million means washing our hands, much of the past year, North Democratic governments. Before mists, not the pessimists. North increase during the period. keeping our distance, and Carolina has lagged behind the 2020 election, most North Caro- Carolina’s finances are strong. Alas, most of our local govern- wearing our masks. For state most other Southern states linians lived in GOP-run counties. There is no gaping budget hole. ments are not in as great a finan- policymakers, it means en- in job creation and income Looking at these county trends In fact, during the first four cial shape as state government suring that our public-health growth. The state’s sizable brings the state’s overall political months of the 2020-21 fiscal is. Households and businesses infrastructure has adequate revenue collections, com- picture into sharper focus. Dem- year, the state collected about have been badly battered by the capacity to get us through the bined with re-elected GOP ocrats used to be competitive in $9.5 billion in General Fund rev- past six months. And the state » coming year. majorities in the legislature, much of rural and small-town North enue while incurring $6.6 billion still has some deferred needs and Public safety. Are we all have eliminated the risk of a Carolina. They are less so today. in General Fund expenditures. In long-term challenges. agreed that N.C. state and tax increase that would have On the other hand, when Repub- other words, it ran a substantial So when the legislature begins local governments are not further delayed our economic licans first became a competitive cash surplus. its next regular session in Janu- going to “defund the police”? recovery. Now lawmakers can force in state politics, much of their The picture looks even better ary, there will be many demands Good. Now, let’s get serious. focus on more constructive strength was found in the suburbs than that when you consider on state coffers — far more, as We need better recruiting, approaches to the problem. of Charlotte, Raleigh, Greensboro, that North Carolina entered the usual, than even North Carolina’s training, and retention of and other metros. That strength fiscal year in July with a $1.5 substantial cash balances can law-enforcement officers to That North Carolina isn’t fac- has ebbed. billion unreserved balance in the finance. combat the rising crime and ing a fiscal crisis is no accident. It The net effect? We are a closely General Fund, plus well over $1 I think Gov. Roy Cooper and disorder in our cities while reflects years of prudent bud- divided state — which is evident all billion more in rainy-day reserves the newly elected Republican also applying force judicious- geting by the General Assembly. the way down the ballot. and other savings. leaders of the General Assembly ly. And we still need better Let’s extend that streak into To be sure, some of the rev- should articulate firm priorities pay and working conditions 2021. 22 CAROLINA JOURNAL // DECEMBER 2020 COMMENTARY Cooper has finger on shutdown button; don’t let him press it ideologies, our people as differ- ent as the towns in which they live. Their beliefs are strong and unshakable. In family, in God, in freedom and liberty. This is their chance — our JOHN TRUMP chance — to teach this adminis- MANAGING EDITOR tration about personal responsibil- ity, about how communities and people can come together to take orth Carolina has an op- care of one another. Without the portunity. Meaning North burdens of government lockdowns Carolina as a whole, but also and pedantic lectures. Without as a sum of its complex and diverse color-coded charts and def-con-like Nparts. maps. Without interference and Gov. Roy Cooper has taken much intervention. from us, decisions made and edicts In Kentucky, Gov. Andy Beshear, issued because of the COVID-19 a Democrat, announced new re- pandemic. I’ve said this before. strictions on people and business- But Cooper, by deciding against es. Schools will close, and restau- taking even more — aside from rants will close to indoor dining. more stringent masking rules — in Residents are told to work from an odd sort of way has given us a home, and indoor gatherings will COMING. Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear recently announced new restrictions on people and businesses. People in the chance to take care of ourselves. be limited to eight people. In Ohio, Cooper administration are having similar thoughts about enacting extreme measures to slow the spread of the virus. Meaning as individuals, because Gov. Mike DeWine, a Republican, his decisions during this pandemic enacted a curfew, mostly closing will have repercussions both pro- the state from 10 p.m. to 5 a.m. found and long-lasting. spread and offers specific recom- Carolina’s 100 counties are delin- facilities. People in the Cooper administra- Cooper may return North Caroli- mendations to bring numbers eated by color, but nothing more. Call this an opportunity, a tion are having similar thoughts. na to March, with draconian lock- down. Counties are coded as red, It’s not interactive, and counties chance, or a wake-up call. To coun- About enacting extreme measures downs and closures. That would orange, and yellow, with red classi- aren’t labeled, so searching is a ties, cities, and towns, whether to slow the spread of the virus. be a mistake, for myriad reasons, fied as “critical.” They’re assigned chore. Further, the map, like many they’re red, blue, or deep purple. About more fines for people who to our economy and to our general respective colors according to the aspects of this administration’s Cooper, though his margin was fail to comply with this order or well-being. rate of cases — the number of new response, lacks context because it’s better than in 2016, won another that. Threats of criminal charges. In lieu of more oppressive cases in 14 days per 100,000 people void of demographics, including term by fewer than 250,000 votes. This is a chance to prioritize shutdowns, Cooper and Dr. Mandy — the percentage of positive cases congregate living facilities — pris- Not nearly the relative landslide common sense over politics. To put Cohen, state health department and impacts to hospitals. ons, nursing homes, farms. That’s pollsters predicted. Many in the the well-being of each other ahead secretary, in a news conference The metric is a gesture toward on another map, on another part of electorate — about half — don’t of politics or politicians, of any Nov. 17 announced the implemen- transparency, as well as promoting the website. As an aside, the state trust Cooper, and they don’t care stripe. Just to make a point. tation of a County Alert System – individual responsibility, but that’s on Nov. 18 reported 4,898 deaths for his policies. Whatever he does Cooper, I’m convinced, has a fin- that aforementioned opportunity. all. A tiny gesture. related to COVID-19. Of those, now won’t change their minds. ger close to the shutdown button. The system pinpoints counties The map, on the health depart- 1,906 were attributed to nursing North Carolina is replete with Hovering just above it, probably. with the highest levels of viral ment’s website, is static. North homes; 507 to residential care competing beliefs and disparate We can’t let him press it down.

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the spending already dwarfs the problem, but the president lost roughly $1.4 trillion spent on the his nerve when applying the Troubled Assets Relief Program brakes to domestic spending. He and huge stimulus designed to pull also ramped up national defense. the country out of the financial Rather than deploy fiscal policy crisis of 2008-09. as a tool to fight inflation, Reagan ANDY TAYLOR The Republican Party helps ex- relied on monetary policy and Paul COLUMNIST plain the shift, too. In the past, the Volcker’s Fed to bolster the feeble country could count on the GOP dollar. to push back against inflationary Today, the GOP is fueling huge n August, the Federal Reserve pressures. It was the party of the deficits. It is appropriately headed made a largely unheralded but gold standard and balanced bud- by the self-proclaimed “King of nevertheless crucial decision. It gets. More of its senators opposed Debt.” A creature of the real-es- altered its target for inflation — the than supported the 1934 Gold tate world, President Trump is Irate at which prices rise — from Reserve Act, legislation which unafraid of red ink. His approach a fixed rate of 2% per year to the restricted private ownership of is similar to that of fellow New more nebulous concept of an av- the precious metal in an effort to Yorker Alexander Hamilton — the erage. This more relaxed approach reflate the economy dramatically. father of the national debt and theoretically permits the rate to Eisenhower’s budgets were, until a original champion of the American rise above the 2% threshold for deep recession in the late 1950s at construction industry. some time. It was what Fed watch- least, generally in surplus. Nixon The Democrats have long em- ers call a “dovish” move. reluctantly ended the policy of braced easy money. Their current The policymakers at the Fed pegging the value of the dollar government spending wish list who monitor credit markets and the Fed to account for unemploy- flation. Despite a moderate recent to gold but continued his party’s — a minimum-wage hike, student set interest rates and money sup- ment when making monetary revival, the 10-year government preoccupation with the scourge. debt forgiveness, free community ply have had a mandate to control policy. So was born its “dual man- bond yield remains at historic In the face of 7% inflation, he college, a Green New Deal, etc. — inflation since the central bank date.” But the new responsibilities lows. But Washington has just announced strict wage and price would generate significant pres- was established in 1913. More proved a challenge. Low interest gone on the largest spending controls in 1971. Ford pledged to sure on prices. We have now lost specifically, the Federal Reserve rates and an expanded money sup- spree outside the regular budget “WIN” or “whip inflation now” the Republican counterweight. Act charged them with the job ply tend to elevate employment process in history. To date, the four during his two years in office, a This has given Powell and his of providing a “stable” financial but frequently boost inflation as phases of coronavirus relief — period marked with annual price colleagues the opportunity to relax system, a state of affairs main- well. In 2012, the Fed, under the which have furnished direct relief increases peaking at about 12%. Fed policies. It might make sense tained only when prices are under leadership of Chair Ben Bernanke, to large businesses like hospitals But by the late 1970s, Repub- at the moment. But for those of control. Inflation had been grow- adopted the 2% target. The goal and the airlines, supplied cash licans had begun to view deficits us who remember the 1970s, let’s ing robustly in the several years was to make this balancing act payments to individuals and small as secondary to deep across-the- hope someone in power is keeping before 1913. The 1907 panic that easier. businesses, increased unemploy- board tax cuts. Economists such an eye on inflation, a monster that preceded it brought on significant Why did Jay Powell and the Fed ment assistance, bolstered sick as Arthur Laffer argued this policy appears only to be sleeping. and damaging deflation. A sturdy change the policy again this sum- leave, and forgiven some loans — would pay for itself by stimulating dollar was therefore foremost in mer? The coronavirus pandemic amount to nearly $3 trillion. There greater economic activity. Andy Taylor is a professor of the minds of the Fed’s designers. provides much of the answer. The will likely be a phase five, either Reagan was persuaded, and his political science at the School of In 1978, Congress passed the short sharp recession it brought before 2020 is out or soon after Joe aggressive efforts on the revenue International and Public Affairs at Humphrey-Hawkins Act to compel about is not fertile terrain for in- Biden is inaugurated. Regardless, side need not have been a fiscal N.C. State University. Why can’t economists agree? expected. But there will also be se- program’s success will be much estimated from the job-training this reaction into account. Such rious analyses of policy proposals less, with total net new jobs and program to derive a net gain in studies are termed dynamic stud- from well-trained and respected incomes in the economy falling jobs and incomes. ies, as compared to static studies economists who don’t agree. This short of the program’s cost. Of course, the jobs and incomes which ignore the reaction. One leads to a logical question: Why? How could the results be so created from the rich spending problem is there is no settled, or MICHAEL WALDEN There are numerous possible different? One reason could be the the $1 billion would not necessar- widely agreed upon, number that COLUMNIST answers, but an important one is second study took account of sec- ily be the same jobs going to the accounts for the reaction to higher secondary impacts. That means ondary effects of the job-training unemployed workers participating tax rates. One way to handle this reactions to policies. Some analy- program, while the first didn’t. in the job-training program. This issue is to conduct several analy- THERE’S AN OLD JOKE saying ses include them, and others don’t. Here’s what I mean. If high-in- would be an important factor to ses using different values. In the if 10 economists are lined up and Here’s an example. Let’s say you come people are tapped to pay consider. Yet the significant point economics business, this is called asked their forecasts for next year, read about a proposal for the fed- for the $1 billion job-training is: The net creation of jobs and sensitivity analysis. there will be 10 different answers. eral government to increase tax program, one view might be they incomes from the job-training pro- So as with most things, we have Indeed, I’ve been on programs rates on high-income taxpayers won’t miss the money. Hence, gram would certainly be less once to peel back the cover on studies with other economists presenting by $1 billion. The revenue would there will be no reaction from the alternative spending of the $1 to see what is really going on with forecasts, and the joke isn’t far then be used to fund job train- those taxpayers. billion was considered. the calculations. Only then can we from reality. ing for workers whose jobs were That may be, but one reaction Another reaction to consider conclude what each study — and Get ready for another round of displaced by the pandemic, with to consider is what these rich tax- is how the behavior of taxpay- the economists behind them — “which economic forecast do you the ultimate goal of re-employing payers would have done with the ers now facing a higher tax rate are telling us. believe.” With a new presidential those workers. $1 billion if the government hadn’t might change, and how their administration about to begin, This is certainly a laudatory and taxed it away. It’s likely they reaction might impact the econ- Michael Walden is a Reynolds analysis of economic proposals important goal. But then let’s say would have done a combination omy. If a government program Distinguished Professor at N.C. State will hit the media fast and furious. you read about two conflicting of two things — spent some and is financed by higher tax rates, University. His new books are Real And a sure bet is that forecasts studies of the proposal. One says invested some. Either way, spend- research shows those paying the Solutions: Common Sense Ideas of the impacts of the proposals it will be a great success, with the ing and/or investing would have higher rates may reduce their for Solving Our Most Pressing will be all over the board. Some increase in jobs and incomes far created jobs and incomes. These income-creating activities, which Problems, and Disunionia: A of these varying forecasts will exceeding the costs of the pro- jobs and incomes would therefore would reduce job creation. Political Thriller. He does not speak be politically based. That’s to be gram. But the other study says the need to be subtracted from those Good economic studies take for the university. 24 CAROLINA JOURNAL // DECEMBER 2020 COMMENTARY Election outcome reveals no Medicaid expansion mandate

health insurance program. respondents do hear about these who advocate for it claim, I believe Even Cal Cunningham, running trade-offs, as evidenced by polls the voters would have responded for U.S. Senate, which has no direct The legislature conducted by the Civitas Institute, by sending a legislature to Raleigh influence on statewide policy, ran should listen to North support for these programs drops who reflect that support. This was on expanding Medicaid. But even significantly. not the case in North Carolina. after all the heightened atten- Carolina voters and This is where I see the miscal- While health care will continue JORDAN ROBERTS tion on the issue, voters chose a continue to resist culation for those who support ex- to be an issue in North Carolina, as HEALTH CARE POLICY ANALYST legislature, the governing body panding Medicaid in the state. They some residents of the state struggle JOHN LOCKE FOUNDATION with ultimate authority on such expanding Medicaid. describe Medicaid expansion as a to afford health care, I believe the issues as Medicaid expansion, with policy proposal that would only legislature should focus on reform a majority of elected officials in including “frontline health care bring about positive benefits for the that brings more affordable health fter months of campaign- both chambers that do not support workers, farmers, childcare and state, when that’s not the case. If coverage options to individuals. But ing and millions of dollars expanding Medicaid. nursing home workers, and small you ask a group of North Carolin- as evidenced by the results of the spent, the 2020 election Medicaid expansion supporters business owners.” It then asks ians if they support the legislature election, Medicaid expansion is not has come and gone in North in the state touted a series of polls if respondents would favor the sending each resident a check for something the voters of North Car- ACarolina. Gov. Roy Cooper defeated over the past year, which, they legislature creating a solution for $100, the majority will probably olina want to see enacted. Legisla- Lt. Gov. Dan Forest; a Republican claimed, was proof a majority of these folks to get health insurance. say yes. But presenting trade-offs tive leaders have a long list of other majority will sit on the Council of North Carolinians would agree with A majority of respondents agreed of such a proposal, like less funding state-based reforms, such as a State; Republicans held on to their such a policy move. For instance, a this would be a worthwhile mission for schools or law enforcement, state innovation waiver to increase majorities in both chambers of the September 2020 poll from Care- for the legislature. would cause North Carolinians to coverage or supply-side reforms state legislature. As Carolina Journal 4Carolina, a N.C.-based health Then the survey frames anoth- reassess their support for such a to increase the number of doctors reported, one of the main conclu- care advocacy group, showed that er question by linking Medicaid program. The same issue is at play and health care supply available to sions drawn by the newly re-elect- 77% of respondents agreed the expansion as a solution to close with Medicaid expansion support: North Carolinians. ed Senate leader and House speaker legislature should expand Medicaid the coverage gap in North Carolina. If you dress the policy up giving After disagreements over Med- is that the election showed there to close the health care “coverage Again, a majority of respondents it the appearance of only positive icaid expansion sank the latest is “no overwhelming mandate gap" created by the Affordable Care agreed, having just heard that consequences — none negative — budget debate, those in the legis- for Medicaid expansion.” Despite Act. State Democrats and liberal some of their neighbors may be in respondents may indicate some lature should listen to N.C. voters Cooper’s re-election, I agree with advocacy groups pounced on this the coverage gap. But the problem support based on limited informa- and continue to resist expanding the legislative leaders. evidence to argue that voters with this poll lies in the fact that tion. But, once the specifics are laid Medicaid. Amid the pandemic, the gov- overwhelmingly support Medicaid these questions don’t often present out, there’s far less support. Health It’s clear from the results of the ernor and state Democrats made expansion. the entire picture of the policy care is complex, and Medicaid election that had North Carolinians Medicaid expansion a central issue But there are issues with this which is being polled. Medicaid expansion is no exception. wanted the state’s Medicaid pro- in the election. Almost every Dem- poll, and the left’s use of polls like expansion isn’t a simple yes or There were countless ads, gram to expand, they would have ocratic candidate for the legislature this represent a larger political no option for the state. There are mailers, and events held that linked voted for a legislature to do so. The or statewide office ran on the issue miscalculation as evidenced by the several economic consequences, electing a majority of Democrats to governor and legislature should of expanding Medicaid, running ads outcome of statewide legislative such as opportunity costs and in- Medicaid expansion. If there were look past Medicaid expansion to and promising to fight to increase races. First, the poll describes the surance crowd-out, that are rarely truly as much support for the ex- real health care reform to provide eligibility for the publicly financed population of the coverage gap as included in a poll question. When pansion of Medicaid as the groups relief to North Carolinians.

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