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Market Assessment June 2014 Huntsville: the Big Picture Market Assessment

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Market Assessment June 2014 Huntsville: the Big Picture Market Assessment Market Assessment June 2014 HUNTSVILLE: THE BIG PICTURE Market Assessment Overview The purpose of this analysis is to examine the real Retail Market Analysis: estate market dynamics and trends in the City of Reviews City of Huntsville performance, metropoli- Huntsville, and determine how they may impact the tan area characteristics, and national trends related potential for development and redevelopment. Both to retail development. the positive and negative influences affecting the City are considered in this analysis for the purpose Office Market Analysis: of identifying opportunities to capitalize on positive Reviews City of Huntsville performance, metropoli- trends and to enhance declining areas. tan area characteristics, and national trends related to office development. This document has five sections: Industrial Market Analysis: Executive Summary: Reviews City of Huntsville performance, metropoli- Summary of key real estate market dynamics unique tan area characteristics, and national trends related to Huntsville, a review of each of the property sec- to industrial development. tors’ analysis including key takeaways, and key questions to consider for the future direction of real estate market performance in Huntsville. Residential Market Analysis: Reviews City of Huntsville performance, metropolitan area characteristics, and national trends related to residential development. June 2014 Page 2 HUNTSVILLE: THE BIG PICTURE Market Assessment Executive Summary Summary: Key Real Estate Market Dynamics However, these jobs are affected by federal budget cuts and political concerns about future cuts. These budget cuts often take place during times of economic Each community also has unique attributes that greatly affect the functioning of recovery, creating a local economy that is not in sync with the larger national the local real estate market. An understanding of these attributes is needed in economy and that is heavily dependent on continued federal spending. order to get a clear picture of the past and the likely future of the area. The following are some of the unique characteristics that impact the Huntsville real Highly-Skilled Workforce estate market. The City of Huntsville has a highly educated population, which has a tremendous Regional Economic Engine impact on the local economy. The combination of this skilled workforce and a relatively low cost of living have served to attract a wide variety of employers The City of Huntsville is the economic engine for all of northeastern Alabama. to the area and has resulted in strong incomes for local residents and a steadily It has a significant share of the jobs, population, and retail commerce for the increasing population. larger area. With this economic activity comes a great deal of commercial development. Economic growth in Huntsville affects not only the City, but the Suburban Character larger region as well. The City of Huntsville developed largely after the widespread use of automo- Federal Government Employment & Spending biles. The result is an overwhelmingly suburban development pattern with low- scale commercial development along major corridors and a separation of uses. The economy of the Huntsville area is greatly impacted by Redstone Arsenal This development pattern will likely make redevelopment of aging areas more and its affiliated contractors. The Arsenal not only brings employment and de- difficult. Areas with a more historic development pattern, such as downtown velopment, it also greatly skews the natural cycles of the local economy. The jobs Huntsville, can transition more easily between uses when there are changes in that result from Redstone and from defense-related contractors do not respond the economy or consumer preferences. In contrast, a suburban shopping center, to the same cyclical forces that shape the national economy and affect most office park, or subdivision is not as easily converted to another use. For many private sector jobs. The result is greater stability during economic downturns. areas in Huntsville, redevelopment may require demolition and rebuilding. June 2014 Page 3 HUNTSVILLE: THE BIG PICTURE Market Assessment Summary: Residential Market Huntsville Trends Takeaways A SSETS National Trends The City of Huntsville was fortunate that its hous- ing market fared better than the nation as a whole • The large government workforce at Redstone The national housing market was greatly impacted during the recent economic downturn. Even so, the Arsenal provides stability for the local housing by the economic downturn. Even though the market slowdown was felt in the community, but much later market. has recovered somewhat, there seems to have been than in most of the nation, and the overall decline in a lasting shift in the residential market. For many, sales and prices was not as steep. • The City of Huntsville has a sizable portion of home ownership is no longer viewed as a good in- vacant land within its borders that is suitable for From a physical standpoint, the Huntsville residen- vestment, and a growing segment of the population residential development. tial market has been, and continues to be, largely is looking to live closer to their place of employment suburban in nature. The for-sale market is over- • The City of Huntsville has the necessary in- or closer to goods and services. In addition, the whelmingly single-family. Newer neighborhoods on frastructure in place for future residential Baby Boomer generation has passed through their the fringes of the City have typically been the most development. child-rearing years and no longer necessarily needs popular, with a few notable exceptions, such as the as much space in their homes. The likely result of C HALLENGES older but highly sought-after Blossomwood neigh- these trends is a long-term weakening of the market borhood. In general, within the City, the health of a • Some potential homebuyers appear to be avoid- for large, suburban homes, especially those furthest particular neighborhood is driven by two factors: the ing the City of Huntsville because of uncertainty from the urban core or major suburban commercial perceived quality of the schools and the proximity to over the public schools. centers. In many cities, the significant strengthening employment and to goods and services. of the housing market in closer-in, desirable neigh- • Large sections of the City have aging housing borhoods, many with smaller houses on smaller lots, stock with few signs of reinvestment. is already happening. • Because the housing market is so predominately single-family, there is not much opportunity for buyers who would prefer another housing type. • In general, there is not a lot of residential stock near the established downtown core. June 2014 Page 4 HUNTSVILLE: THE BIG PICTURE Market Assessment C HALLENGES Summary: Retail Market Huntsville Trends • It is unlikely that Madison Square Mall will con- While the Huntsville retail market serves a fairly National Trends tinue to function as a regional shopping center affluent trade area, it is not immune from the pre- and will likely ultimately shut down completely. Retailers were especially hard hit during the recent vailing trends in retail. Overall, the retail market The weakness of this center has already had a economic downturn. Even though the economy has is healthy, and new entrants, such as Whole Foods, negative effect on the surrounding retail, with returned to modest growth, retailers are feeling demonstrate this health. However, the City has sev- further deterioration likely. pressure from changing consumer habits and from eral shopping centers that suffer from high vacancy. online retailing. The result is that many retailers are One can look at the current state of Madison Square • It is likely that the local retail market is reach- trimming their store counts and/or moving to smaller Mall and its surrounding shopping centers to see a ing saturation. In general, retailers are opening prototypes. In addition, large regional malls have possible future for some of the City’s other retail fewer stores, and most retailers who want to be lost favor with consumers and many retailers are nodes if too much new retail space is built. in the Huntsville market already have locations unable or unwilling to pay the very high rents to there. locate in an enclosed shopping center. Takeaways • There is a lack of historic neighborhood com- Most experts agree that the United States has had A SSETS mercial nodes with small-scale, neighborhood- too much retail space for some time. As weaker serving retail uses. • Per capita consumer expenditures for the City retailers shrink or close completely, it is likely that of Huntsville are almost 109% of the national • While the overall market is healthy, there a great deal of vacant retail space will be created figure. This makes the area attractive to a vari- are several areas with high vacancy and with few viable tenants to fill that space. ety of national retailers. disinvestment. • The City of Huntsville provides destination retail for the entire region through Parkway Place Mall, Bridge Street Town Centre, and a variety of big box retailers. • It is expected that population growth will con- tinue, which will allow for moderate growth of convenience retail. June 2014 Page 5 HUNTSVILLE: THE BIG PICTURE Market Assessment Summary: Office Market important, because, unlike other similar-sized cities, downtown Huntsville has the opportunity to it gives Huntsville the ability to attract other non- become a vibrant
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