Aid, Growth and Poverty

Aid, Growth and Poverty Jonathan Glennie • Andy Sumner Aid, Growth and Poverty Jonathan Glennie Andy Sumner Visiting Fellow Reader in International Development King’s College London King’s College London London , UK London , UK ISBN 978-1-137-57271-4 ISBN 978-1-137-57272-1 (eBook) DOI 10.1057/978-1-137-57272-1 Library of Congress Control Number: 2016940950 © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 2016 The author(s) has/have asserted their right(s) to be identifi ed as the author(s) of this work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifi cally the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfi lms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specifi c statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. Printed on acid-free paper This Palgrave Macmillan imprint is published by Springer Nature The registered company is Macmillan Publishers Ltd. London ACKNOWLEDGMENTS We would like to thank the following for comments on earlier versions of this work that appeared in part or whole as Glennie et al., (2012); Glennie and Sumner (2014) and Sumner and Glennie (2015): Michael Clemens; Mark McGillivray; Tony Addison; Roger Riddell; Simon Maxwell; Paddy Carter; Gargee Ghosh, Carol Welch and four anonymous reviewers. This book is based in part on work that was supported by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. Views presented are entirely those of the authors. This book was peer reviewed in itself and in earlier versions as a Working Paper and a journal article. REFERENCES Glennie, J. and Sumner, A. (2014). The $138.5 Billion Question: When Does Foreign Aid Work (and When Doesn’t It)?. CGD Policy Paper 49. Washington DC: Center for Global Development. Sumner, A. and Glennie, J. (2015) Growth, Poverty and Development Assistance: When Does Foreign Aid Work? Global Policy. 6(3): 201-211. Glennie, J. with with Ahmed Ali, Maia King, Alastair McKechnie and Gideon Rabinowitz (2012) Localising aid: can using local actors strengthen them? ODI Working Paper 352. ODI: London. v CONTENTS 1 Introduction 1 2 A History of Aid Effectiveness 9 3 Assessing Aid: Conceptual and Methodological Issues 31 4 Aid, Growth, and Poverty: An Empirical Review of Cross-country Research 49 5 Conclusion 75 Annex: List of Studies by Subject 79 vii ACRONYMS GDP Gross domestic product GNI Gross national income IDA International Development Association IMF International Monetary Fund IMR Infant mortality rate LDC Least developed country LIC Low-income country MIC Middle-income country NGO Non-governmental organisation ODA Offi cial development assistance OECD-DAC Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development—Development Assistance Committee RCT Randomised controlled trial UNU WIDER United Nations University—World Institute for Development Economics Research ix LIST OF FIGURES Fig. 3.1 Net ODA received/GNI in all developing countries, low income countries, least developed countries, and fragile and confl ict-affected states, 2002–2012 32 Fig. 3.2 Net ODA received per capita (current $) in all developing countries, low-income countries, least- developed countries and fragile and confl ict-affected states, 2012 32 Fig. 3.3 Net ODA received as percentage of central government expenditure in low-income countries with data, 2010–2012 (most recent available year) 33 Fig. 3.4 Making generalisations on the impact of aid: illustrative research questions versus scope of aid 39 xi LIST OF TABLES Table 3.1 Search terms used and results 43 Table 4.1 Studies of education, health and poverty, and aid impacts 56 Table 4.2 Summary of the conditions that are supportive to aid effectiveness for economic growth 63 xiii.

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