Threatened Species Strategy – Year 3 Priority Species Scorecard (2018)

Red-tailed Black-Cockatoo (south-eastern) Calyptorhynchus banksia graptogyne

Key Findings South-eastern Red-tailed Black Cockatoos are highly dependent on seeds from just three tree species, as well as deep hollows in very old eucalypt trees for nesting. Habitat loss through tree decline has been caused by drying climatic changes and fire disturbance. Significant recovery efforts have focused on habitat protection and regeneration, however numbers of young birds joining the population are falling for reasons that are unclear. Photo: Bob McPherson Significant trajectory change from 2005-15 to 2015-18? No, ongoing slow decline.

Priority future actions • Identify causes of low fecundity in breeding birds and low seed set in monitored trees • All important trees effectively protected against fire, clearing of habitat strictly forbidden • Known nest trees maintained, additional nest boxes erected near high quality feeding trees • A drought strategy developed and implemented

Full assessment information Background information 2018 population trajectory assessment

1. Conservation status and 8. Expert elicitation for population 2. Conservation history and prospects trends 3. Past and current trends 9. Immediate priorities from 2019 4. Key threats 10. Contributors 5. Past and current management 11. Legislative documents 6. Support from the Australian Government 12. References 7. Measuring progress towards conservation 13. Citation

The primary purpose of this scorecard is to assess progress against the year three targets outlined in the Australian Government’s Threatened Species Strategy, including estimating the change in population trajectory of 20 bird species. It has been prepared by experts from the National Environmental Science Program’s Threatened Species Recovery Hub, with input from a number of taxon experts, a range of stakeholders and staff from the Office of the Threatened Species Commissioner, for the information of the Australian Government and is non-statutory. It has been informed by statutory planning documents that guide recovery of the species, such as Recovery Plans and/or Conservation Advices (see Section 11). The descriptive information in this scorecard is drawn from Commonwealth of (2007), unless otherwise noted by additional citations.

The background information aims to provide context for estimation of progress in research and management (Section 7) and estimation of population size and trajectories (Section 8).

1 Information current to December 2018 Threatened Species Strategy – Year 3 Priority Species Scorecard (2018)

1. Conservation status and taxonomy

Conservation status 2018 Taxonomy: Five subspecies of Red-tailed Black-Cockatoo IUCN Endangered Calyptorhynchus banksii are recognised. EPBC Endangered Calyptorhynchus banksii naso (south-west Western Australia) is listed as Vulnerable, the SA Endangered remainder are not listed.

VIC Threatened

2. Conservation history and prospects The south-eastern subspecies of Red-tailed Black-cockatoo is confined to an area of about 18,000 km2 in south-eastern and adjacent far south-western Victoria. A single population of about 1400 individuals persists, despite reduced feeding and nesting habitat. The cockatoo feeds almost entirely on the seeds of three tree species, all of which must be mature before they produce seed; brown stringybark (Eucalyptus baxteri), desert stringybark (Eucalyptus arenacea) and buloke (Allocasuarina luehmannii). Fire has a major impact on food quantity, setting stringybark trees back 10 years before they produce seed crops similar in size to long-unburnt trees. Nesting habitat may also limit populations in the future as big hollows take centuries to form and an estimated 4-7% have been lost annually, suggesting that there may already be a serious shortfall in suitable hollow-bearing trees, manifest initially through increased competition with other hollow-nesters. Despite this there has been great progress in developing support for the birds with numerous local people involved in counting the cockatoos, rehabilitating landscapes and protecting nest trees (Russell et al. 2018). This is likely because of the attention paid to the bird’s annual population counts, which, though variable, have been fairly steady. However, recent measurements of seed availability and low fecundity are cause for concern, especially as the underlying causes are not fully understood (R.Hill in litt.) and counts since 2015, a record year, have been substantially lower than previously.

3. Past and current trends Counts since 1996 of the minimum number of Red-tailed Black-Cockatoos alive have varied greatly from year to year and no obvious trend has emerged, with the population currently between 1000 and 2000 individuals. However, in the last few years, there has been a substantial increase in the proportion of adult males, with clear red tail panels, over females/immatures, with barred tail panels suggesting either an increase in female mortality or, more likely, a decrease in breeding success and lower recruitment. Mean proportion of adult males in flocks since 1998 is 42%. However in 2016 and again in 2018 the ratio of barred to red-tailed birds was almost at parity (R.Hill in litt.).

2 Information current to December 2018 Threatened Species Strategy – Year 3 Priority Species Scorecard (2018)

Monitoring (existing programs): Annual counts have been conducted by birdwatchers since 1996 (organised by the recovery team and BirdLife Australia) that determine the minimum known to be alive. Monitoring was funded initially by the Commonwealth National Landcare Program and has had contributions from SENRM, GHCMA and WCMA. Since 1998 the project officer has collected flock count ratios to determine recruitment and gender ratios as well as assess stringybark availability at 300 marked trees from 10 sites across the subspecies range. Both project officer projects have been funded by DELWP in addition to the groups above.

Population trends: Tables 1 and 2 summarise the overall trend and status of the Red-tailed Black Cockatoo. The information provided in these tables is derived from the recovery plan and conservation advices with some amendments made by contributing experts based on new information.

Table 1. Summary of the available information on south-eastern Red-tailed Black-Cockatoo distribution and population size, and (where possible) trend estimates between 2015 and 2018 for each parameter. Published Confidence in Population parameters 2015 Estimate 2018 Estimate baseline estimates

WILD*

Extent of Occurrence 23,000 km2 23,000 km2 23,000 km2 High

Area of Occupancy 1300 km2 1300 km2 1300 km2 High

Dates of records and methods used As per Bird Action Plan

No. mature individuals 1100 1000-2000 1000-2000 Low

Ratio of all barred Any other measure of relative 1998: 63% 2018: 52% birds in flocks in High abundance (specify) autumn.

No. of subpopulations 1 1 1 High

No. of locations >10 >10 >10 High

High; based on BirdLife Generation time 10.4 n/a n/a International global modelling *Including translocations

3 Information current to December 2018 Threatened Species Strategy – Year 3 Priority Species Scorecard (2018)

Table 2. Estimated recent (2005-2015) and current (2015-2018) population trends for the south- eastern Red-tailed Black-Cockatoo.

Est. % of 2005- Confidence 2015- Confidence Sub- total in in 2015 2018 Details population pop’n 2005-2015 2015-2018 trend trend trend trend

Annual counts, though variable, do not Whole suggest decline but recent low fecundity 100 High Medium population and low seed availability suggest a decline in population and habitat health.

KEY: Improving Stable Deteriorating Unknown Confidence Description High Trend documented Medium Trend considered likely based on documentation

? Low Trend suspected but evidence indirect or equivocal

4. Key threats The threats listed here are derived from the Commonwealth of Australia (2007) with some amendments from contributing experts based on new information. Note that this is not a list of all plausible threats, but a subset of the threats that are likely to have the largest impact on populations.

Increase in fire frequency/intensity Food shortages are the main threat to the long-term survival of the south-eastern Red-tailed Black- Cockatoo. Strong cyclic variation in seed availability has been exacerbated by the loss and degradation of feeding habitat: dietary specialisation and food shortages have a profound effect on the birds’ annual distribution, movements, and nesting success. Prescribed burns and wildfires substantially reduce seed availability in stringybarks for at least nine years, with some effects persisting for more than 11 years (Koch 2003). Nearly 70% of all stringybark habitats are on public land in Victoria. About half of the stringybark in areas burnt less than 9 years ago are in priority fuel-reduction areas, where the aim is to control the spread of wildfire (meaning there is little opportunity to reduce fire frequency (Russell et al. 2018). Even where there are aspirations to protect habitat from fire, on catastrophic fire danger days all fire-fighting resources are likely to be directed at protecting life and property.

Agro-industry farming About 57% of all suitable habitat has been cleared within the range: 87% of original stringybark habitat in SA, 42% in Vic. While clearing of large forest blocks has largely ceased, the loss of isolated trees in paddocks continues, particularly of the very old buloke trees favoured by the cockatoos. Tree removal to make way for irrigation pivots also continues to reduce the number of nesting trees. Loss of hollows, which are largely in dead trees, may limit breeding success. Also, with fewer suitable hollows, there is a concomitant increase in competition with other hollow-nesting / hollow-using species, particularly as some competitors may be increasing in abundance because they have taken advantage of agricultural habitats. While artificial nest boxes have been erected, their usage is unknown (R. Hill pers. comm.).

4 Information current to December 2018 Threatened Species Strategy – Year 3 Priority Species Scorecard (2018)

Grazing impacts on foraging sites Uncontrolled grazing is a major threat contributing to the death and decline of trees in private land throughout the range. For example, in four paddocks near Naracoorte regularly used for feeding, 76% of stringybarks had some degree of ringbarking caused by cattle, and 15% were dead. Cattle can also kill mature bulokes (Russell et al. 2018).

Firewood collection Commercial and private firewood harvesting is another threat to cockatoo nesting habitat associated with agricultural lands. Most firewood is taken from standing and fallen dead timber; principally gum species but also stringybarks. Illegal felling of dead standing timber on public land is common throughout the range, despite it being illegal in both SA and Victoria (Russell et al. 2018).

Increased drought impacts Extended periods with low rainfall appear to reduce the capacity of stringybarks and buloke to set seed, so reduce breeding success. If, as anticipated from climate change models, droughts are longer and hotter then seed availability may be reduced or become more variable. As a result, by 2020, the climate space of the subspecies is predicted to disappear entirely by 2085 (Garnett et al. 2014).

The impacts of the major threats are summarised in Table 3.

Table 3. The major threats facing the south-eastern Red-tailed Black-Cockatoo and their associated impact scores.

CURRENT THREAT IMPACT (five greatest threats)

Threat Timing Extent Severity 1. Increase in fire Continuing/ongoing 50-90% of range 30-49% frequency/intensity

2. Agro-industry farming Continuing/ongoing 1-50% of range 30-49%

3. Grazing impacts on Continuing/ongoing 1-50% of range 20-29% foraging sites

4. Firewood collection Continuing/ongoing 1-50% of range 20-29%

5. Increased drought Continuing/ongoing 50-90% of range Not negligible but <20% impacts Timing: continuing/ongoing; near future: any occurrence probable within one generation (includes former threat no longer causing impact but could readily recur); distant future: any occurrence likely to be further than one generation into the future (includes former threat no longer causing impact and unlikely to recur). Extent: <1% of range; 1-50%; 50-90%; >90%. Severity: (over three generations or 10 years, whichever is sooner) Causing no decline; Negligible declines (<1%); Not negligible but <20%; 20-29%; 30-49%; 50-100%; Causing/could cause order of magnitude fluctuations.

5 Information current to December 2018 Threatened Species Strategy – Year 3 Priority Species Scorecard (2018)

5. Past and current management Recent and current management actions thought to have contributed to the conservation of south- eastern Red-tailed Black-Cockatoos are summarised in Table 4. This information is a collation of material provided by experts. A Recovery Plan (2007) is in place, guiding recovery action (see Section 11). Table 4. Management actions thought to have contributed to the conservation of the south-eastern Red-tailed Black-Cockatoo.

Est. % Action Location Timing Contributors and partners pop’n

Desert Stringybark habitat restoration and protection activities Undertaken by WWF; Conservation undertaken as part of the Cockies Council SA; Zoos South Australia; funded helping Cockies project: 340 ha South 2009- by WWF: Caring for Country; DPTI SEB 10 remnant stringybark Australia 2018 Offset Funding; SA NRM Community fenced/protected; 239 ha of Grant; NLP1;TSR Fund & SENRM Board stringybark revegetated/established. Partnership Fund. Work across 100 properties. More than100 landowners engaged. Undertaken by Nature Glenelg Trust; Stringybark revegetation: 500 funded by WWF: Caring for Country; South stringybark seedlings planted at 2016 10 DPTI SEB Offset Funding; SA NRM Australia Diamond Bar plantation in July 2016. Community Grant; NLP1;TSR Fund & SENRM Board Partnership Fund.

Landscape Links Project - Buloke revegetation & Woody Weed Undertaken by Natural Resources South South 2015- Control: 1000 buloke planted at St 10 East; funded by the Australian Australia 2016 Aubin’s (near Frances SA) 2015-2016. Government (Biodiversity Fund).

Landscape Links Project - Buloke revegetation & Woody Weed Control: 500ha woody weeds mapped and treated (Geegeela CP, Bangham CP, Pine Hill Soak CP, HA829). Undertaken by Natural Resources South South 2013- 10 East; funded by the Australian 1000 stringybark planted (near Australia 2017 Government (Biodiversity Fund). Frances SA) 2013-2017

Weed Control: 500ha woody weeds mapped and treated (Geegeela CP, Bangham CP, Pine Hill Soak CP, HA829).

6 Information current to December 2018 Threatened Species Strategy – Year 3 Priority Species Scorecard (2018)

Naracoorte Range Project 40 hectares of stringybark habitat Undertaken by Natural Resources South revegetated South 2013- 10 East; funded by the Australian 2000 hectares of woody weed Australia 2017 Government (Biodiversity Fund). control in high value stringybark feeding habitat.

Woodland restoration project Department of Planning, Transport and South 2013- 200 Buloke planted Custon 10 Infrastructure delivered by Natural Australia 2017 Conservation Park Resources South East

Scattered stringybark tree planting: Undertaken by KFTG; funded by the 750 individually guarded scattered Victoria 2018 10 Australian Government (Threatened trees (10/ha) 75 ha improved food Species Recovery Fund). resources by 2030.

RTBC Habitat under active management in the Wimmera: 2448 Undertaken by Wimmera CMA; funded 2013- ha of RTBC habitat on private land Victoria 10 by the Australian Government 2018 under active management (fenced, (Threatened Species Recovery Fund). pest/ animal control, etc).

Scattered buloke tree planting: 750 Undertaken by KFTG; funded by the individually guarded scattered trees Victoria 2018 10 Australian Government. (Threatened (10/ha) 75 ha improved food Species Recovery Fund). resources by 2030.

Undertaken by KFTG; funded by the Wild pine control: 300 ha stringybark Casterton 2018 10 Australian Government. (Threatened remnant treated. Species Recovery Fund).

Undertaken by KFTG & BirdLife Nest box installation: 10 nest boxes Australia; funded by Part of above installed at 2 sites, trialling design Casterton 2018 1 project / Commonwealth NLP1 via CMAs and placement and remote data and the Australian Government collection. (Threatened Species Recovery Fund).

Increasing critical food supply: 2000 ha restoration, planting: 2000 ha 2016- Undertaken by Greening Australia; Victoria 10 stringybark restored. 150,000 tube 2018 funded by the Australian Government. stock, 1400 ha direct seeding.

Increasing critical food supply: 2000 2016- Undertaken by Greening Australia; ha restoration, planting: Estimated Victoria 10 2018 funded by the Australian Government. 500,000 trees established overall.

Salvana Habitat restoration and Cons. Undertaken by Australian Trust for enhancement of critical feeding Reserve. 2016-17 Conservation Volunteers; funded by the resources Victoria Australian Government.

7 Information current to December 2018 Threatened Species Strategy – Year 3 Priority Species Scorecard (2018)

Eaglehawk Waterhole Habitat restoration and and Mount Undertaken by Trustee For Nature; enhancement of critical feeding Burr 2014-17 funded by the Australian Government. resources Swamp, South Australia

Woody weed control: 2000 new stringybark seedlings planted at South Undertaken by NGT; funded by the Eaglehawk Waterhole in June 2016. 2016 10 Australia Australian Government.. 660 buloke seedlings planted at Eaglehawk Waterhole in June 2016.

Woody weed control: 9890 ha wild 2012- Undertaken by GHCMA; funded by the pine control in stringybark woodland Victoria 10 2017 Australian Government. (feeding habitat).

Woody weed control: 1551 ha wild 2009- Undertaken by Glenelg Alliance; funded Victoria 10 pine control in stringybark remnants. 2013 by the Australian Government.

Woody weed control: 7,395 ha wild Undertaken by DELWP; funded by the Victoria 2010 10 pine removal on public land. Australian Government.

Undertaken by DEWNR, plantation Woody weed control: 2100 ha South 2011 10 companies; funded by the Australian treated. Australia Government.

Woody weed control: 500 hectares mapped for weeds, 100ha of area Undertaken by Nature Glenelg Trust & where weeds removed. Incl. South 2015- 10 New Forests; funded by the Australian Eaglehawk Waterhole (NGT), Australia 2016 Government. Diamond Bar and Manna plantation areas (New Forest).

Woody Weed Control: 1500 ha wood weeds mapped and treated on public Undertaken by Nature Glenelg Trust & South 2015- and private land in stringybark 10 New Forests; funded by the Australian Australia 2016 woodland along the Naracoorte Government. Range.

Nest Protection: Continued to collar Undertaken by BirdLife Australia & new nest trees found as part of the DELWP; funded by the Australian Victoria Ongoing 2 nest incentive scheme and maintain Government (National Landcare existing collars. Program).

Revegetation on Bank Australia Conservation Reserves – Minimay & 2008- Undertaken by KFTG; funded by MECU/ Victoria 10 Ozenkadnook: 60 ha of buloke 2014 Bank Australia. revegetation.

Revegetation on Bank Australia Conservation Reserves – Minimay & 2008- Undertaken by KFTG; funded by MECU/ Victoria 10 Ozenkadnook: 94 ha of stringybark 2014 Bank Australia. revegetation.

8 Information current to December 2018 Threatened Species Strategy – Year 3 Priority Species Scorecard (2018)

Undertaken by KFTG; funded by BirdLife Australia; TSN (CfoC, Fed); Trust for Project Karak – buloke revegetation: 2007- Victoria 1 Nature (Commonwealth); Community 104.8 ha of buloke revegetation. 2013 Action Grants 2009 & 2010 Australian Government (Caring for our Country).

Protect habitat from loss: 17 2013- Undertaken by Trust for Nature; funded covenants registered, totalling Victoria 10 2018 by Bank Australia. 2561.4 ha of land protected.

Protect habitat from loss: 209 ha 2013- Undertaken by Trust for Nature; funded Victoria 1 purchased, covenanted and resold. 2018 by Bank Australia.

ESO3 planning Scheme Amendment: Undertaken by BirdLife Australia, Improved protection of feeding and 2014- Glenelg Shire Council; funded by BirdLife nesting habitat across the range of Victoria 10 2018 Australia Donors & landholder the cockatoo in the Glenelg Shire compliance fine. Council.

Management of scorch: Working with DELWP to manage the threat Undertaken by Recovery Team; BirdLife from fire and reduce scorch from Victoria Ongoing 100 Australia and DELWP; funded by BirdLife 24% to 17% across 117,000 ha of Australia and Commonwealth NLP. RTBC stringybark habitats on public land in Victoria.

Monitor illegal habitat clearance and ensure compliance (note that Undertaken by Recovery team member; estimates may vary greatly due to funded by BirdLife Australia, the Victoria 2015 10 reactive nature of these actions): Australian Government, DELWP, West Reported clearance of many Wimmera Shire. hundreds of trees by DELWP on Casterton-Dartmoor Rd.

6. Actions undertaken or supported by the Australian Government resulting from inclusion in the Threatened Species Strategy

The Australian Government has contributed to the conservation of the south-eastern Red-tailed Black- Cockatoo by supporting various habitat restoration projects, including eight projects through the National Landcare Program. These projects are working to connect and expand habitat and include the “Cockie planting trees for Cockies” project which has seen 80 landholders planting food trees on their properties. The Australian Government’s 20 Million Trees program has also funded revegetation projects specifically aimed at restoring habitat for the Red-tailed Black-Cockatoo in Victoria and South Australia since 2014.

The benefits of these habitat restoration projects are likely to be realised in the longer-term as habitat becomes suitable.

9 Information current to December 2018 Threatened Species Strategy – Year 3 Priority Species Scorecard (2018)

7. Measuring progress towards conservation Table 5. Progress towards management understanding and management implementation for each of the major threats affecting the south-eastern Red-tailed Black-Cockatoo in 2015 (i.e. timing of TSS implementation) and 2018, using the progress framework developed by Garnett et al. (2018). PROGRESS IN MANAGING THREATS (five greatest threats)

Threat Year Understanding of how to manage threat Extent to which threat being managed 4. Trial management under way but not yet 3. Solutions have been adopted but too 1. Increase in fire 2015 clear evidence that it can deliver objectives early to demonstrate success frequency/ 4. Trial management under way but not yet 3. Solutions have been adopted but too intensity 2018 clear evidence that it can deliver objectives early to demonstrate success 2. Work has been initiated to roll out 4. Trial management under way but not yet 2015 solutions where threat applies across 2. Agro-industry clear evidence that it can deliver objectives the taxon’s range farming 4. Trial management under way but not yet 3. Solutions have been adopted but too 2018 clear evidence that it can deliver objectives early to demonstrate success 4. Trial management under way but not yet 3. Solutions have been adopted but too 3. Grazing 2015 clear evidence that it can deliver objectives early to demonstrate success impacts on 4. Trial management under way but not yet 3. Solutions have been adopted but too foraging sites 2018 clear evidence that it can deliver objectives early to demonstrate success 4. Trial management under way but not yet 3. Solutions have been adopted but too 2015 4. Firewood clear evidence that it can deliver objectives early to demonstrate success collection 4. Trial management under way but not yet 3. Solutions have been adopted but too 2018 clear evidence that it can deliver objectives early to demonstrate success 1. Research being undertaken or completed but 2015 0. No management 5. Increased limited understanding on how to manage threat drought impacts 1. Research being undertaken or completed but 2018 0. No management limited understanding on how to manage threat > Green shading indicates an improvement in our understanding or management of threats between years 2015 and 2018, while red shading indicates deterioration in our understanding or management of threats.

KEY Score Understanding of how to manage threat Extent to which threat is being managed 0 No knowledge and no research No management Research being undertaken or completed but 1 Management limited to trials limited understanding on how to manage threat Research has provided strong direction on how to Work has been initiated to roll out solutions 2 manage threat where threat applies across the taxon’s range Solutions being trialled but work only initiated Solutions have been adopted but too early to 3 recently demonstrate success Trial management under way but not yet clear Solutions are enabling achievement but only with 4 evidence that it can deliver objectives continued conservation intervention Good evidence available that solutions are Trial management is providing clear evidence that it 5 enabling achievement with little or no can deliver objectives conservation intervention Research complete and being applied OR ongoing 6 research associated with adaptive management of The threat no longer needs management threat

10 Information current to December 2018 Threatened Species Strategy – Year 3 Priority Species Scorecard (2018)

8. Expert elicitation for population trends An expert elicitation process was undertaken to assess population trends for the period 2005-2015 and post-2015 under the following management scenarios. Please note that differences between Management Scenarios 2 and 3 (Fig. 1) are difficult to attribute, as it can be difficult to determine whether actions undertaken after 2015 were influenced by the Threatened Species Strategy or were independent of it (see Summary Report for details of methods). Management Scenario 1 (red line): no conservation management undertaken since 2015, and no new actions implemented.

• No fire management • Habitat clearance unconstrained • Firewood collection uncontrolled Under this scenario development of the region for agriculture would resume at rates appropriate to markets of the day unconstrained by regulations on private land; public land would be managed only to protect life and property. Management Scenario 2 (blue line): continuation of existing conservation management (i.e. actions undertaken before implementation of the Threatened Species Strategy or independent of the Threatened Species Strategy).

• Some management of controlled burning • High levels of publicity and vigilance about illegal land clearing • Continued revegetation of feeding habitat • Nest box erection near feeding sites • Some control of firewood collection Under this scenario there would be continued effort to constrain development and land management that will affect the cockatoos deleteriously and strong involvement among the community, particularly local landholders. Management Scenario 3 (green line): continuation of existing management, augmented by support mobilised by the Australian Government under the Threatened Species Strategy.

• Some management of controlled burning • High levels of publicity and vigilance about illegal land clearing • Much more revegetation of feeding habitat than under Scenario 2 • Nest box erection near feeding sites • Some control of firewood collection Under this scenario the area revegetated with feeding habitat is much greater than would have otherwise been achieved, particularly on private land. Overall estimated population trajectories subject to management scenarios considered The south-eastern Red-tailed Black-Cockatoo is currently being managed under Scenario 3 (green line).

11 Information current to December 2018 Threatened Species Strategy – Year 3 Priority Species Scorecard (2018)

Figure 1. Estimated relative percentage change in population under each of the management scenarios described above. Data derived from 8 expert assessments of Red-tailed Black-Cockatoo expected response to management, using four-step elicitation and the IDEA protocol (Hemming et al. 2017), where experts are asked to provide best estimates, lowest and highest plausible estimates, and an associated level of confidence. The dashed line represents the baseline value (i.e. as at 2015, standardised to 100). Values above this line indicate a relative increase in population size, while values below this line indicate a relative decrease in population size. Shading indicates confidence bounds (i.e. the lowest and highest plausible estimates).

Population size projections based on expert elicitation are extended here to 2025, 2035 and 2045 (i.e. 10, 20 and 30 years after the establishment of the Threatened Species Strategy) on the grounds that some priority conservation management actions may take many years to achieve substantial conservation outcomes. However, we note also that there will be greater uncertainty around estimates of population size into the more distant future because, for example, novel threats may affect the species, managers may develop new and more efficient conservation options, and the impacts of climate change may be challenging to predict.

12 Information current to December 2018 Threatened Species Strategy – Year 3 Priority Species Scorecard (2018)

Improved trajectory (Threatened Species Strategy Year 3 target): The primary purpose of this scorecard is to assess progress against achieving the year three targets outlined in the Australian Government’s Threatened Species Strategy, i.e. a demonstrated improved trajectory for at least half of the priority species (10 birds and 10 mammals). To assess this, we first use the expert-derived trend between 2005-15 (i.e. 10 years prior to implementation of the TSS) as a baseline for assessing whether there has been an improvement in trajectory in the time since implementation of the TSS (i.e. 2015-18). Table 6 below summarises this information, where negative values indicate a declining population, and positive values indicate an increasing population. We used Wilcoxon match-paired tests to compare trajectories for these two periods; a significant result (probability <0.05) indicates that there was a high concordance amongst experts that their trajectory estimates for 2005-15 were different to their estimates for 2015-18.

Table 6. A comparison of the relative annual percentage population change for the periods 2005-2015 and 2015-2018.

Post-TSS Year 3 Pre-TSS trend Significant concordance among trend target (2005-2015) elicitors? (2015-2018) met? Annual Although the trajectory slightly improved, percentage -0.71 -0.41 there was insufficient concordance among population  elicitors to reach significance. change

Additional actions that could improve trajectory The potential impact of carrying out specific additional conservation measures on the population trajectory of the Red-tailed Black-Cockatoo was also evaluated through expert elicitation. Current management includes some controlled burning; high levels of publicity and vigilance about illegal land clearing; some revegetation of feeding habitat; nest box erection near feeding sites; and some control of firewood collection. Additional actions that could further improve the population trajectory of the Red-tailed Black- Cockatoo include:

• Research identifies causes of low fecundity in breeding birds and low seed set in monitored trees • All old growth stringybark and buloke effectively protected against fire, with extra resources mobilised on catastrophic fire days • Clearing of habitat for agriculture, firewood colletion or any other reason is strictly forbidden and compliance high • Known nest trees are maintained • Additional nest boxes are erected near high quality feeding trees • A drought strategy is developed and implemented

13 Information current to December 2018 Threatened Species Strategy – Year 3 Priority Species Scorecard (2018)

With these actions, the current problems with low fecundity would be identified and ameliorated, habitat would be protected, maintained and restored and resources made available to help the cockatoos cope with extremes of fire and drought.

9. Immediate priorities from 2019 Identification of these priorities in this document is for information and is non-statutory. For statutory conservation planning documents, such as Recovery Plans or Conservation Advices, please see Section 12. The priorities listed here are derived from Commonwealth of Australia (2007), with some amendments made by contributing experts based on new information. Data collection: • Study causes of and relative proportions of breeding failure and adult survival • Study causes of low seed production in stringybark Management objectives: • Reduce burning of old growth stringybark • Continue restoring habitat • Erect nest boxes near high quality feeding habitat • Implement actions recommended from research on breeding failure and suspected high adult mortality

10. Contributors Peter Copley, Stephen Garnett, Cassie H, Richard Hill, Sarah Legge, John Woinarski, Hayley Geyle, Guy Dutson, Nicholas MacGregor, Peter Menkhorst, Allan Burbidge, Richard Loyn.

11. Legislative documents SPRAT profile: http://www.environment.gov.au/cgi- bin/sprat/public/publicspecies.pl?taxon_id=25982 Commonwealth of Australia (2007). National Recovery Plan for the South-Eastern Red-tailed Black- Cockatoo Calyptorhynchus banksii graptogyne. Department of the Environment and Water Resources, Canberra. Available from: http://www.environment.gov.au/biodiversity/threatened/recovery-plans/national-recovery- plan-south-eastern-red-tailed-black-cockatoo-calyptorhynchus-banksii. In effect under the EPBC Act from 26-Apr-2007.

14 Information current to December 2018 Threatened Species Strategy – Year 3 Priority Species Scorecard (2018)

12. References Commonwealth of Australia (2007). National Recovery Plan for the South-Eastern Red-tailed Black- Cockatoo Calyptorhynchus banksii graptogyne. Department of the Environment and Water Resources, Canberra. Garnett, S.T., Butchart, S.H.M., Baker, G.B., Bayraktarov, E., Buchanan, K.L., Burbidge, A.A., Chauvenet, A.L.M., Christidis, L., Ehmke, G., Grace, M., Hoccom, D.G., Legge, S.M., Leiper, I., Lindenmayer, D.B., Loyn, R.H., Maron, M., McDonald, P., Menkhorst, P., Possingham, H.P., Radford, J., Reside, A.E., Watson, D.M., Watson, J.E.M., Wintle, B., Woinarski, J.C.Z., and Geyle, H.M. (2018) Metrics of progress in the understanding and management of threats to Australian Birds. Conservation Biology https://doi.org/10.1111/cobi.13220. Garnett S.T., Pavey C.R., Ehmke, G., VanDerWal, J., Hodgson L. and Franklin D.C. (2014) Adaptation profiles for Australian birds that are both highly sensitive and highly exposed. In ‘Climate change adaptation plan for Australian birds’. (Eds. S.T. Garnett and D.C. Franklin). pp. 139–143. CSIRO publishing: Melbourne. Hemming, V., Burgman, M.A., Hanea, A.M., McBride, M.F., and Wintle B.C. (2017) A practical guide to structured expert elicitation using the IDEA protocol. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 9, 169-180. Russell V., Hill R., Burnard T., Perryman P., Copley P., Gilkes K., Maron M., Baker-Gabb D., Pritchard R. and Koch P. (2018) Science, community and commitment underpin the road to recovery for the red-tailed black-cockatoo. In ‘Recovery Australian Threatened Species: a Book of Hope’. (Eds S. Garnett, P. Latch, D. Lindenmayer and J. Woinarski.) pp. 85–93. CSIRO Publishing: Melbourne.

13. Citation Please cite this document as:

National Environmental Science Program Threatened Species Research Hub (2019) Threatened Species Strategy Year 3 Scorecard – Red-tailed Black Cockatoo (south eastern). Australian Government, Canberra. Available from: http://www.environment.gov.au/biodiversity/threatened/species/20-birds-by-2020/red- tailed-black-cockatoo

15 Information current to December 2018