PICTURE of the MONTH a Mesoscale Low-Level
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The Generation of a Mesoscale Convective System from Mountain Convection
JUNE 1999 TUCKER AND CROOK 1259 The Generation of a Mesoscale Convective System from Mountain Convection DONNA F. T UCKER Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Kansas, Lawrence, Kansas N. ANDREW CROOK National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, Colorado (Manuscript received 18 November 1997, in ®nal form 13 July 1998) ABSTRACT A mesoscale convective system (MCS) that formed just to the east of Denver is investigated with a nonhy- drostatic numerical model to determine which processes were important in its initiation. The MCS developed from out¯ow from previous convective activity in the Rocky Mountains to the west. Model results indicate that this out¯ow was necessary for the development of the MCS even though a convergence line was already present in the area where the MCS developed. A simulation with a 3-km grid spacing more fully resolves the convective activity in the mountains but the development of the MCS can be simulated with a 6.67-km grid. Cloud effects on solar radiation and ice sedimentation both in¯uence the strength of the out¯ow from the mountain convection but only the ice sedimentation makes a signi®cant impact on the development of the MCS after its initiation. The frequent convective activity in the Rocky Mountains during the warm season provides out¯ow that would make MCS generation favorable in this region. Thus, there is a close connection between mountain convective activity and MCS generation. The implications of such a connection are discussed and possible directions of future research are indicated. 1. Introduction scale or mesoscale. Forced lifting always occurs on the windward side of mountains; however, the mechanisms Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) commonly de- that promote lifting on the downwind side of mountains, velop in the central United States during the warm sea- where a large proportion of MCSs initiate, are not as son, accounting for 30%±70% of the summer precipi- obvious. -
The Impact of Outflow Environment on Tropical Cyclone Intensification And
VOLUME 68 JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES FEBRUARY 2011 The Impact of Outflow Environment on Tropical Cyclone Intensification and Structure ERIC D. RAPPIN Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Miami, Miami, Florida MICHAEL C. MORGAN AND GREGORY J. TRIPOLI University of Wisconsin—Madison, Madison, Wisconsin (Manuscript received 3 October 2008, in final form 5 June 2009) ABSTRACT In this study, the impacts of regions of weak inertial stability on tropical cyclone intensification and peak strength are examined. It is demonstrated that weak inertial stability in the outflow layer minimizes an energy sink of the tropical cyclone secondary circulation and leads to more rapid intensification to the maximum potential intensity. Using a full-physics, three-dimensional numerical weather prediction model, a symmetric distribution of environmental inertial stability is generated using a variable Coriolis parameter. It is found that the lower the value of the Coriolis parameter, the more rapid the strengthening. The lower-latitude simulation is shown to have a significantly stronger secondary circulation with intense divergent outflow against a com- paratively weak environmental resistance. However, the impacts of differences in the gradient wind balance between the different latitudes on the core structure cannot be neglected. A second study is then conducted using an asymmetric inertial stability distribution generated by the presence of a jet stream to the north of the tropical cyclone. The initial intensification is similar, or even perhaps slower, in the presence of the jet as a result of increased vertical wind shear. As the system evolves, convective outflow from the tropical cyclone modifies the jet resulting in weaker shear and more rapid intensification of the tropical cyclone–jet couplet. -
An Observational Analysis Quantifying the Distance of Supercell-Boundary Interactions in the Great Plains
Magee, K. M., and C. E. Davenport, 2020: An observational analysis quantifying the distance of supercell-boundary interactions in the Great Plains. J. Operational Meteor., 8 (2), 15-38, doi: https://doi.org/10.15191/nwajom.2020.0802 An Observational Analysis Quantifying the Distance of Supercell-Boundary Interactions in the Great Plains KATHLEEN M. MAGEE National Weather Service Huntsville, Huntsville, AL CASEY E. DAVENPORT University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, NC (Manuscript received 11 June 2019; review completed 7 October 2019) ABSTRACT Several case studies and numerical simulations have hypothesized that baroclinic boundaries provide enhanced horizontal and vertical vorticity, wind shear, helicity, and moisture that induce stronger updrafts, higher reflectivity, and stronger low-level rotation in supercells. However, the distance at which a surface boundary will provide such enhancement is less well-defined. Previous studies have identified enhancement at distances ranging from 10 km to 200 km, and only focused on tornado production and intensity, rather than all forms of severe weather. To better aid short-term forecasts, the observed distances at which supercells produce severe weather in proximity to a boundary needs to be assessed. In this study, the distance between a large number of observed supercells and nearby surface boundaries (including warm fronts, stationary fronts, and outflow boundaries) is measured throughout the lifetime of each storm; the distance at which associated reports of large hail and tornadoes occur is also collected. Statistical analyses assess the sensitivity of report distributions to report type, boundary type, boundary strength, angle of interaction, and direction of storm motion relative to the boundary. -
Mechanisms for Organization and Echo Training in a Flash-Flood-Producing Mesoscale Convective System
1058 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW VOLUME 143 Mechanisms for Organization and Echo Training in a Flash-Flood-Producing Mesoscale Convective System JOHN M. PETERS AND RUSS S. SCHUMACHER Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado (Manuscript received 19 February 2014, in final form 18 December 2014) ABSTRACT In this research, a numerical simulation of an observed training line/adjoining stratiform (TL/AS)-type mesoscale convective system (MCS) was used to investigate processes leading to upwind propagation of convection and quasi-stationary behavior. The studied event produced damaging flash flooding near Dubuque, Iowa, on the morning of 28 July 2011. The simulated convective system well emulated characteristics of the observed system and produced comparable rainfall totals. In the simulation, there were two cold pool–driven convective surges that exited the region where heavy rainfall was produced. Low-level unstable flow, which was initially convectively in- hibited, overrode the surface cold pool subsequent to these convective surges, was gradually lifted to the point of saturation, and reignited deep convection. Mechanisms for upstream lifting included persistent large-scale warm air advection, displacement of parcels over the surface cold pool, and an upstream mesolow that formed between 0500 and 1000 UTC. Convection tended to propagate with the movement of the southeast portion of the outflow boundary, but did not propagate with the southwest outflow boundary. This was explained by the vertical wind shear profile over the depth of the cold pool being favorable (unfavorable) for initiation of new convection along the southeast (southwest) cold pool flank. A combination of a southward-oriented pressure gradient force in the cold pool and upward transport of opposing southerly flow away from the boundary layer moved the outflow boundary southward. -
Richmond, VA Hurricanes
Hurricanes Influencing the Richmond Area Why should residents of the Middle Atlantic states be concerned about hurricanes during the coming hurricane season, which officially begins on June 1 and ends November 30? After all, the big ones don't seem to affect the region anymore. Consider the following: The last Category 2 hurricane to make landfall along the U.S. East Coast, north of Florida, was Isabel in 2003. The last Category 3 was Fran in 1996, and the last Category 4 was Hugo in 1989. Meanwhile, ten Category 2 or stronger storms have made landfall along the Gulf Coast between 2004 and 2008. Hurricane history suggests that the Mid-Atlantic's seeming immunity will change as soon as 2009. Hurricane Alley shifts. Past active hurricane cycles, typically lasting 25 to 30 years, have brought many destructive storms to the region, particularly to shore areas. Never before have so many people and so much property been at risk. Extensive coastal development and a rising sea make for increased vulnerability. A storm like the Great Atlantic Hurricane of 1944, a powerful Category 3, would savage shorelines from North Carolina to New England. History suggests that such an event is due. Hurricane Hazel in 1954 came ashore in North Carolina as a Category 4 to directly slam the Mid-Atlantic region. It swirled hurricane-force winds along an interior track of 700 miles, through the Northeast and into Canada. More than 100 people died. Hazel-type wind events occur about every 50 years. Areas north of Florida are particularly susceptible to wind damage. -
Outflow from a Nocturnal Thunderstorm
State Water Survey Division METEOROLOGY SECTION AT THE UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS SWS Contract Report 242 OUTFLOW FROM A NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM Robert W. Scott Meteorology Section Illinois State Water Survey Technical Report 3 NSF Grant ATM 78-08865 Low Level Convergence and the Prediction of Convective Precipitation November 1980 Champaign IL 61820 The project "Low-level Convergence and the Prediction of Convective Precipitation" is a coordinated research effort by the State Water Survey Division of the Illinois Institute of Natural Resources, the Off ice of Weather Modification Research in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Adminis tration, and the Department of Environmental Sciences of the University of Virginia. Support of this research has been provided to the State Water Survey by the Atmospheric Research Section, National Science Founda tion, through grant ATM-78-08865. This award includes funds from the Army Research Office and the Air Force Office of Scientific Research of the Department of Defense. OUTFLOW FROM A NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM Robert W. Scott Illinois State Water Survey TABLE OF CONTENTS Page LIST OF FIGURES iii ABSTRACT .. v ACKNOWLEDGMENTS vii INTRODUCTION 1 STORM CONDITIONS 2 METEOROLOGICAL FIELDS IN THE NETWORK 8 DISCUSSION 19 REFERENCES 26 -iii- LIST OF FIGURES Figure Page 1 Synoptic analyses on 8-9 August 1979. a. Surface chart at 1900 CDT on 8 August 1979. b. Surface chart at 0700 CDT on 9 August 1979 3 c. 850-mb chart at 1900 CDT on 8 August 1979. d. 850-mb chart at 0700 CDT on 9 August 1979 4 e. 700-mb chart at 1900 CDT on 8 August 1979. -
ESSENTIALS of METEOROLOGY (7Th Ed.) GLOSSARY
ESSENTIALS OF METEOROLOGY (7th ed.) GLOSSARY Chapter 1 Aerosols Tiny suspended solid particles (dust, smoke, etc.) or liquid droplets that enter the atmosphere from either natural or human (anthropogenic) sources, such as the burning of fossil fuels. Sulfur-containing fossil fuels, such as coal, produce sulfate aerosols. Air density The ratio of the mass of a substance to the volume occupied by it. Air density is usually expressed as g/cm3 or kg/m3. Also See Density. Air pressure The pressure exerted by the mass of air above a given point, usually expressed in millibars (mb), inches of (atmospheric mercury (Hg) or in hectopascals (hPa). pressure) Atmosphere The envelope of gases that surround a planet and are held to it by the planet's gravitational attraction. The earth's atmosphere is mainly nitrogen and oxygen. Carbon dioxide (CO2) A colorless, odorless gas whose concentration is about 0.039 percent (390 ppm) in a volume of air near sea level. It is a selective absorber of infrared radiation and, consequently, it is important in the earth's atmospheric greenhouse effect. Solid CO2 is called dry ice. Climate The accumulation of daily and seasonal weather events over a long period of time. Front The transition zone between two distinct air masses. Hurricane A tropical cyclone having winds in excess of 64 knots (74 mi/hr). Ionosphere An electrified region of the upper atmosphere where fairly large concentrations of ions and free electrons exist. Lapse rate The rate at which an atmospheric variable (usually temperature) decreases with height. (See Environmental lapse rate.) Mesosphere The atmospheric layer between the stratosphere and the thermosphere. -
A Targeted Modeling Study of the Interaction Between a Supercell and a Preexisting Airmass Boundary
University of Nebraska - Lincoln DigitalCommons@University of Nebraska - Lincoln Dissertations & Theses in Earth and Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Department Atmospheric Sciences of 5-2010 A Targeted Modeling Study of the Interaction Between a Supercell and a Preexisting Airmass Boundary Jennifer M. Laflin University of Nebraska at Lincoln, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.unl.edu/geoscidiss Part of the Earth Sciences Commons Laflin, Jennifer M., "A Targeted Modeling Study of the Interaction Between a Supercell and a Preexisting Airmass Boundary" (2010). Dissertations & Theses in Earth and Atmospheric Sciences. 6. https://digitalcommons.unl.edu/geoscidiss/6 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Department of at DigitalCommons@University of Nebraska - Lincoln. It has been accepted for inclusion in Dissertations & Theses in Earth and Atmospheric Sciences by an authorized administrator of DigitalCommons@University of Nebraska - Lincoln. A TARGETED MODELING STUDY OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN A SUPERCELL AND A PREEXISTING AIRMASS BOUNDARY by Jennifer M. Laflin A THESIS Presented to the Faculty of The Graduate College at the University of Nebraska In Partial Fulfillment of Requirements For the Degree Master of Science Major: Geosciences Under the Supervision of Professor Adam L. Houston Lincoln, Nebraska May, 2010 A TARGETED MODELING STUDY OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN A SUPERCELL AND A PREEXISTING AIRMASS BOUNDARY Jennifer Meghan Laflin, M. S. University of Nebraska, 2010 Adviser: Adam L. Houston It is theorized that supercell thunderstorms account for the majority of significantly severe convective weather which occurs in the United States, and as a result, it is necessary that the mechanisms which tend to produce supercells are recognized and investigated. -
The Extremely Active 1995 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Environmental Conditions and Veri®Cation of Seasonal Forecasts
1174 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW VOLUME 126 The Extremely Active 1995 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Environmental Conditions and Veri®cation of Seasonal Forecasts CHRISTOPHER W. L ANDSEA NOAA Climate and Global Change Fellowship, NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division, Miami, Florida GERALD D. BELL NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Climate Prediction Center, Washington, D.C. WILLIAM M. GRAY Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado STANLEY B. GOLDENBERG NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division, Miami, Florida (Manuscript received 3 September 1996, in ®nal form 18 March 1997) ABSTRACT The 1995 Atlantic hurricane season was a year of near-record hurricane activity with a total of 19 named storms (average is 9.3 for the base period 1950±90) and 11 hurricanes (average is 5.8), which persisted for a total of 121 named storm days (average is 46.6) and 60 hurricane days (average is 23.9), respectively. There were ®ve intense (or major) Saf®r±Simpson category 3, 4, or 5 hurricanes (average is 2.3 intense hurricanes) with 11.75 intense hurricane days (average is 4.7). The net tropical cyclone activity, based upon the combined values of named storms, hurricanes, intense hurricanes, and their days present, was 229% of the average. Additionally, 1995 saw the return of hurricane activity to the deep tropical latitudes: seven hurricanes developed south of 258N (excluding all of the Gulf of Mexico) compared with just one during all of 1991±94. Interestingly, all seven storms that formed south of 208N in August and September recurved to the northeast without making landfall in the United States. -
Part 2 Severe Weather
34 INTRODUCTION to SEVERE WEATHER (from http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jetstream//) 34 35 Chapter 1. Tropical Cyclone (from http://www.srh.noaa.gov/srh/jetstream/tropics/tropics_intro.htm) 1. Introduction A tropical cyclone is a warm-core, low pressure system without any "front" attached, that develops over the tropical or subtropical waters, and has an organized circulation. Depending upon location, tropical cyclones have different names around the world. In the: • Atlantic/Eastern Pacific Oceans - hurricanes • Western Pacific - typhoons • Indian Ocean - cyclones Regardless of what they are called, there are several favorable environmental conditions that must be in place before a tropical cyclone can form. They are: • Warm ocean waters (at least 80°F / 27°C) throughou t a depth of about 150 ft. (46 m). • An atmosphere which cools fast enough with height such that it is potentially unstable to moist convection. • Relatively moist air near the mid-level of the troposphere (16,000 ft. / 4,900 m). • Generally a minimum distance of at least 300 miles (480 km) from the equator. • A pre-existing near-surface disturbance. • Low values (less than about 23 mph / 37 kph) of vertical wind shear between the surface and the upper troposphere. Vertical wind shear is the change in wind speed with height. 35 36 Tropical Cyclone Formation Basin Given that sea surface temperatures need to be at least 80°F (27°C) for tropical cyclones form, it is natural that they form near the equator. However, with only the rarest of occasions, these storms do not form within 5° latitude of the equator. -
Radar Artifacts and Associated Signatures, Along with Impacts of Terrain on Data Quality
Radar Artifacts and Associated Signatures, Along with Impacts of Terrain on Data Quality 1.) Introduction: The WSR-88D (Weather Surveillance Radar designed and built in the 80s) is the most useful tool used by National Weather Service (NWS) Meteorologists to detect precipitation, calculate its motion, estimate its type (rain, snow, hail, etc) and forecast its position. Radar stands for “Radio, Detection, and Ranging”, was developed in the 1940’s and used during World War II, has gone through numerous enhancements and technological upgrades to help forecasters investigate storms with greater detail and precision. However, as our ability to detect areas of precipitation, including rotation within thunderstorms has vastly improved over the years, so has the radar’s ability to detect other significant meteorological and non meteorological artifacts. In this article we will identify these signatures, explain why and how they occur and provide examples from KTYX and KCXX of both meteorological and non meteorological data which WSR-88D detects. KTYX radar is located on the Tug Hill Plateau near Watertown, NY while, KCXX is located in Colchester, VT with both operated by the NWS in Burlington. Radar signatures to be shown include: bright banding, tornadic hook echo, low level lake boundary, hail spikes, sunset spikes, migrating birds, Route 7 traffic, wind farms, and beam blockage caused by terrain and the associated poor data sampling that occurs. 2.) How Radar Works: The WSR-88D operates by sending out directional pulses at several different elevation angles, which are microseconds long, and when the pulse intersects water droplets or other artifacts, a return signal is sent back to the radar. -
Eastern Caribbean Hurricane Lenny
EASTERN CARIBBEAN: 19 November 1999 HURRICANE LENNY Information Bulletin N° 02 The Situation After reaching almost category 5 strength on Wednesday, Hurricane Lenny has now weakened to category 2. However, its width (yesterday 180 km with hurricane force & 295 km with tropical storm force, and today 90 km & 230 km respectively) and the fact it has remained almost stationary the last three days means it may have caused extensive damage and that it is still a severe threat to the Eastern Caribbean, particularly the Leeward Islands. At 5 a.m.( A.S.T.) today, the centre of the hurricane was located near latitude 18.1 north, longitude 62.8 west, or just north of the island of St Barthélemy and just east of the island of St Martin. A hurricane warning remains in effect for St Kitts & Nevis, Antigua & Barbuda, Monserrat, St Martin, St Barthélemy and Anguila for much of today. A tropical storm warning remains for other neighbouring islands. The hurricane winds have now decreased to 185 kph with higher gusts over unprotected south and west facing terrain. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 280 km from the centre and stronger wind fluctuations could occur. The islands of St. Martin (particularly the southern, Dutch side), Anguila, Saba, St. Eustatius and St. Barthélémy, are experiencing hurricane force winds as they are located in the centre of the advancing hurricane. The phenomenon is expected to continue to move slowly north eastward today, hopefully out of the Caribbean. Red Cross/Red Crescent Action St. Kitts and Nevis Red Cross reported on Thursday 18 that the major impact of the hurricane was flooding , both fresh water and salt water.