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THE CHINA ANALYST Is Published & Distributed Quarterly by the BEIJING AXIS May-July THE 2009 CHINA ANALYST A knowledge tool by THE BEIJING AXIS for executives with a China agenda Charting China’s crisis exit strategy – The road ahead in 2009 Features Re-engineering Growth: China’s Crisis Exit Strategy 6 China’s Stimulus Package: How Green? 9 China’s Africa Engagement: New Issues, Salient Trends 12 Regulars Macroeconomic Monitor 15 China Sourcing Strategy 22 China Inc. Goes Global: OFDI/M&A 30 Advertisement GDPGDP 2008 2008 (USD tn) tn) Budget Balance GDP (%) Current Account Balance / GDP (%) 18.4 US US EU -3.2 -4.6 US 14.3 Japan -5.4 Japan 3.5 Japan 4.9 China -0.1 China 10.2 China 4.4 Germany 0.2 Germany 6.6 Germany 3.7 Britain -5.3 Britain -2.2 Britain 2.9 France -3.2 -1.8 France 2.7 France Canada 0.3 1 Canada 1.6 Canada Brazil 1.5 Brazil -0.7 Brazil -1.4 Poland 0.5 Poland -1.8 Poland -5.6 Worldwide Stimulus Packages (USD bn) Hungary 6.5 Russia 42 Canada 30 Netherlands 7.5 Poland 31 Britain 30 Germany 109 Kazakhstan 25 USA 787 Spain 113 France 33 Japan 650 Italy 6.3 S. Korea 10.8 EU 255 China 586 Mexico 54 Saudi Arabia 17.3 India 4 Philippines 6.1 Singapore 13.6 Brazil 283 South Africa 3.7 Australia 27 Chile 4 Argentina 13.2 New Zealand 5 Breakdown of Selected Stimulus Packages US China Japan Germany 5% 4% 1% 7% 1% 7% 3% 30% 7% 38% 9% 43% 10% 9% 46% 54% 70% 14% 18% 24% Tax Relief Infrastructure First package First package Disaster Reconstruction Second package Second package State and Local Fiscal Relief Infrastructure and Science Rural Construction Environmental Protection USD 111 billion for tax cuts, 1st: Infrastructure; Tax relief & Protecting the Vulnerable more than half of total for capi- Support for SMEs; Education Health Care Social Welfare Education and Training Technological Innovation tal injections for lenders and 2nd: Aid to auto industry; Tax Energy Value-added Tax Cuts financial institutions relief for households Other Education and Health Care Sources: IMF; Various Press; TBA Analysis 4 At the Highest Level China has been able to weather the global economic storm better than most. China’s dramatic slowdown halted during March-April 2009, and further consolidation looks likely in the near future. But risks remain and unrealistic expectations should be avoided. At the very least, we must look out for regional, sectoral and value chain variability in the economy. Simply put, navigating in the Chinese landscape has just be- come even harder. But the long term prize is still unparalleled: China, the world’s third-largest market, is set to maintain its solid lead on developed and developing economies. Expect changes in the relative and absolute attractive- ness of certain areas based on their share of exports in GDP, share of FDI, the cost of doing business, govern- ment incentives, infrastructure, etc. These regional dis- crepancies will be felt in the urban-rural divide, between eastern and western China, and between provinces in the east, i.e. those that form a contiguous belt on the coast. Location studies now become more important and it is necessary to think about the opportunity in sec- ond tier, third tier and fourth tier cities and areas • Sectoral disparities are also emerging. Gone are the days when almost all sub-sectors exhibit super-fast uring the latter part of Q1 2009, China’s economy growth. It will become far more difficult to identify sec- Demerged from a period of rapid slowdown that had tors and sub-sectors that will be the sustained drivers of ensued in Q3 2008. With 6.1% y-o-y GDP growth in Q1 overall growth 2009, and with many indicators pointing to a mild recovery • Not all areas of the value chain within a particular indus- in activity, the scene is now set for China to hover near 6- try will enjoy the same prospects. It is now more essen- 7% growth over the next few months before entering into a tial to identify which industries will see differences be- somewhat higher pace of growth towards the end of 2009 tween the upstream and downstream segments. This and into 2010. With a consolidating global environment— has widespread implications, i.e. for regulatory changes, albeit only a tentative consolidation based on a reduction for input and gate price changes and for fluctuating in- in negative news, somewhat stabilized financial markets, ter-dependencies between various industries the edge coming off the credit crunch and a more unified • The past 6-9 months have shown that economic reform G20 voice — there is scope for optimism. Confidence in in China is as unpredictable as ever and policy levers the global economy is a key requirement for an eventual can be used aggressively in order to stimulate or con- broad-based recovery. strain target areas, sectors and sub-sectors Indeed, in recent months some Chinese economic sectors The list goes on, but it is clear that a more uncertain envi- (such as auto, selected property segments and credit ronment spells a new strategic landscape where strate- growth, etc) have recorded a markedly ‘better’ perform- gies will have to be more finely calibrated. The ability (or ance compared with the period of spontaneous destruction inability) to manage information and more sophisticated, between August 2008 and February 2009. But some sec- forward-looking planning processes will determine the win- tors remain weak and are unlikely to return to their previ- ners and losers in China. ous lofty levels. Herein lies the management challenge. It is now both more difficult and more important than ever to Yet this more complicated planning environment does not analyse the multitude of volatile indicators and divergent mean that the overall risks outweigh the rewards. On the trends that characterize the Chinese landscape. In short, contrary, China’s Q1 2009 performance clearly showed its the one-way-bet scenario of recent years, when most indi- continued dominance as the world’s most robust large cators trended higher, have come to an end and managers market. It leads global growth and continues to outperform with a China agenda must now manage in a more complex developing and developed markets alike. And nothing sug- environment. China has become a country where some gests that this is about to change. As such, while it is nec- sectors (perhaps most) far outpace global averages, but essary to carefully navigate the immediate challenges in a others are now below the waterline. This new environment changing landscape, we must not lose sight of, or be de- is in fact only an inevitable shift towards normalcy and is flected from, the opportunity to capture full long-term ad- likely to be with us over the long term. vantage in the world’s third-largest economy. In order to mitigate risks that arise in this new era it is nec- I trust that our readers will enjoy this edition of The China essary to manage information well. That implies having the Analyst – and as always we welcome all feedback. right people, processes, methodologies and systems in Kobus van der Wath place. Below we identify a number of focus areas for those Founder & Group Managing Director who manage China ventures: THE BEIJING AXIS China Business Solutions • Regional disparities are likely to become more distinct. Strategy I Sourcing I Investment 5 Table of Contents May-July 2009 Re-engineering Growth: China’s Crisis Exit Strategy 6 The financial crisis and the adherent global economic stasis have severely impacted China’s exporting growth engine, yet can China be the first nation to recover by reconfiguring its economy? China’s Stimulus Package: How Green? 9 One of China’s greatest concerns is the rising environmental damage that the past 30 years of breakneck economic devel- opment has created. Will the country continue its efforts in the areas of efficiency and environmental regulation? China’s Africa Engagement: New Issues, Salient Trends 12 As more Chinese companies feel the need to enter new markets and gain more resources, Africa will see increased Chinese business and investment activity in more sectors on the continent. Macroeconomic Monitor: China’s Tentative Consolidation 15 While the world remains firmly in recession, Q1 2009 has delivered tentative signs of a recovery in China. We expect China’s economy to recover gradually in 2009, and then more rapidly in 2010 as demand eventually rebounds. Financial Markets 19 Tracking the dynamics of China’s Shanghai and Shenzhen Composite Index indicators and benchmark interest rates, Finan- cial Markets also illustrates recent trends and transformations in China’s exchange rate regime. China Facts & Figures 20 China Facts & Figures provides a cross-section of data illustrating growth, transformations and trends in China’s commerce and industry. China Sourcing Strategy 22 China’s economy is exhibiting some positive signs, but how has the China sourcing risk profile changed for international procurement managers—and what can they do to formulate appropriate China Sourcing Strategies in 2009? China Sourcing Blog Highlights 26 Highlights from The China Sourcing Blog, THE BEIJING AXIS online information portal and discussion forum on all issues relevant to sourcing from China. BRICS Breakdown 27 Incorporating recent economic statistics from Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, BRICS Breakdown is a compara- tive segment that evaluates and contrasts China with the other leading developing economies. China Trade Roundup 28 This section illustrates the main trends in the growth and transformation of China’s trade profile, and summarises a selection of the latest available trade statistics for China.
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