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Image of Power Power of an Image REPORT on PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL RATINGS in LATIN AMERICA MARCH-APRIL 2021 IMAGE of POWER

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MAY 2021 Image of power Power of an image REPORT ON PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL RATINGS IN LATIN AMERICA MARCH-APRIL 2021 IMAGE OF POWER. POWER OF AN IMAGE Executive summary A second wave of the pandemic has battered reform (the third) promoted by the the continent in the last two months government of Iván Duque and with reignited prompting record numbers of infections and demands for what are seen as long-overdue deaths, with Brazil, Colombia, Peru and police reforms. Argentina among the most affected. Even Uruguay – held up as an example to follow There is still no data enabling us to describe having kept the pandemic at bay until the end or forecast how the rioting and the police’s of last year – at one point led the world in per response to it will impact on the popularity of capita deaths from Covid-19. Chile has also the President, which in April dropped to 35%. been hard hit, despite more of its people being That level of approval is similar to that he had fully vaccinated than in any other country bar after the countrywide strike action of Israel. 2019/20, although Duque’s average for the past two months is higher than on that On the issue of vaccine rollout, Chile, and occasion. Uruguay, which has also come far on this, are clear exceptions to the norm in the region. On the other hand, the Presidents of Generally, Latin American countries have Argentina, Ecuador, Costa Rica and Uruguay – struggled to acquire vaccines, leading to the all of whose popularity had slipped in the proportions of those receiving one jab or more previous two-month period – have seen their being lower than 1% for Honduras, Guatemala approval ratings level off. This is true also of and Venezuela and between 11-15% in Mexico’s López Obrador, whose ratings have Argentina, Brazil, El Salvador and Panama. stabilized since November and may yet rise ahead of the June legislative elections. Public mood has soured as a result, most Contrastingly, Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil citizens believing their countries to be on the continues his downward march, with the wrong track. 86.9% and 85% of citizens hold 2022 elections expected to present a major this view in Ecuador and Peru respectively, challenge, while of all the presidents looked with both these countries having seen recent at, Francisco Sagasti of Peru has witnessed elections marked by fragmentation, voter the sharpest drop in approval. indecision and, ultimately, an ousting of the ruling party. Regardless of the results of the About this publication. Image of Power second round vote in Peru on June 6, its new provides bimonthly analysis of presidential government, in common with that of Ecuador, approval ratings in 18 countries in Latin will command only a minority in the America and the Caribbean drawing on survey legislature and must weave tricky political data from 75 sources. Starting with this alliances to promote their agendas. issue, the Presidential Image Ranking (page 4) will only include those cases where a Public disquiet in Colombia meanwhile has minimum of three measurements are boiled over. In the last few days, citizens have available over the study period from at least taken to the streets en masse to protest, at two different sources. least initially, against another proposal for tax 2 IMAGE OF POWER. POWER OF AN IMAGE What are the topics covered in this issue? Presidential Image Ranking: March- Ecuador: President-elect Guillermo April 2021 (pag. 4) Lasso presented cabinet and government priorities (pag. 13) How did the image of presidents evolve? Jan 2020-April 2021? (pag. 5) El Salvador: Majority-led Assembly removes Constitutional Chamber Between March and April levels of judges and Attorney General in its approval stabilized except for in first session (pag. 14) Brazil and Peru (pag. 7) 2021: a year marked by elections What are the main concerns of the public? (pag. 8) Peru: Castillo leads electoral preferences for the second round, in a What do citizens think of the work of highly fragmented context (pag. 15) their parliaments? (pag. 10) Mexico: June legislative elections: The highlights of this issue: polls place Morena as favorite (pag. 16) Colombia: Duque backs down on tax reform and ends April with greatest Electoral calendar (pag. 17) social unrest since 2019 (pag. 11) Methodological notes (pág. 18) Brazil: Again in the eye of the storm, Bolsonaro goads Supreme Court and governors (pag. 12) 3 IMAGE OF POWER. POWER OF AN IMAGE Presidential Image Ranking Positive March - April 2021 Negative MEXICO 58% Andrés López Obrador 39% URUGUAY 57% Luis Lacalle Pou 25% ARGENTINA 43% Alberto Fernández 52% COLOMBIA 42% Iván Duque 52% BRAZIL 29% Jair Bolsonaro 50% PERU 28% Francisco Sagasti 64% CHILE 16% Sebastián Piñera 74% ECUADOR 9% Lenín Moreno 86% Starting with this issue, ratings will only be given in those cases where a minimum of three measurements are available over the study period from at least two different sources. Source: Author's own elaboration based on a compilation of public opinion surveys carries out between March and April 2021. To see the sources, click here. 4 IMAGE OF POWER. POWER OF AN IMAGE How did the image of presidents evolve? January 2020 - April 2021 Positive Negative JAN> MAR> MAY> JUL> SEP> NOV> JAN> MAR> FEB APR JUN AUG OCT DEC FEB ABR 55% 67% ARGENTINA 80% 55% 49% 49% 51% 52% Alberto 17% 38% 44% 48% 44% 43% Fernández 31% 27% 51% 43% 53% 50% BRAZIL 39% 41% 37% 42% Jair Bolsonaro 36% 43% 30% 29% 36% 34% 33% 29% 58% BOLIVIA 49%* 31%* 30% Luis Arce Arce took office on 11/08/2020 82% 75% 74% 71% 67% 72% 70% CHILE 66% Sebastián Piñera 19% 23% 21% 21% 19% 10% 14% 16% 63% 57% 54% 56% 56% COLOMBIA 52% 49% 52% Iván Duque 46% 33% 34% 41% 40% 39% 37% 42% *65% 56% 50% *53% *40% 46% *49% COSTA RICA 39% Carlos Alvarado *14% 31% 36% 35% 32% *28% *24% *25% *91% 86% *90% 84% 86% 70% 71% ECUADOR 64% Lenín Moreno 23% 16% 15% 13% *7% 11% *8% 9% EL SALVADOR 96% 91% *92% 93% *84% 88% *83% Nayib Bukele 8% 3% 8% 6% 6% *5% *56% *87% *64% 61% GUATEMALA *44% 43% Alejandro *15% 41% Giammattei *37% 39% 33% *27% Source: Author's own elaboration based on a compilation of public opinion surveys carries out between January 2020 and April 2021. The empty points correspond to periods when no data is available. (*) Based on a single data source. To see the sources click here. 5 IMAGE OF POWER. POWER OF AN IMAGE How did the image of presidents evolve? January 2020 - April 2021 Positive Negative JAN> MAR> MAY> JUL> SEP> NOV> JAN> MAR> FEB APR JUN AUG OCT DEC FEB APR HONDURAS 50% 49% 42% *45% Juan Orlando 42% 41% Hernández 37% *31% 63% 53% 61% 61% MEXICO 53% 50% 54% 58% Andrés Manuel 48% 41% López Obrador 35% 45% 42% 34% 38% 39% *59% NICARAGUA *42% 51% *42% Daniel Ortega *27% *30% 32% *35% *63% PANAMA 50% *40% *36% Laurentino Cortizo *14% 43% *29% *31% *61% *63% PARAGUAY *50% Mario Abdo Benítez 32% *44% *37% *30% 28% PERU 64% 49% 50% 37% Francisco Sagasti 32% 28% Sagasti took office on 11/17/2020 78% *77% DOMINICAN 72% *68% REPUBLIC 28% Luis Abinader 8% *10% Abinader took office on 08/16/2020 *65% 61% 61% *60% URUGUAY *53% 58% 55% 57% 34% 25% Luis Lacalle Pou *22% *20% 22% 17% 17% *20% *57% *56% VENEZUELA *83% *82% *14% Nicolás Maduro *13% *15% *14% Source: Author's own elaboration based on a compilation of public opinion surveys carries out between January 2020 and April 2021. The empty points correspond to periods when no data is available. (*) Based on a single data source. To see the sources click here. 6 IMAGE OF POWER. POWER OF AN IMAGE Between March and April levels of approval stabilized except for in Brazil and Peru Comparison with the period January - February 2021 Approval levels remained relatively stable in Iván Duque’s approval standing is perhaps Argentina, Chile, Costa Rica, Ecuador, striking at first. However, it should be seen Mexico and Uruguay, and only declined in in the light of the pronounced fall in his Brazil and Peru. This general leveling off popularity between January and February. In contrasts with the overall decline observed addition, the approval level in April was in the first two months of the year, but for 35%, well below that of March. which it is possible the drop in March and April may have been steeper. DOMINICAN MEXICO REPUBLIC HONDURAS GUATEMALA EL SALVADOR NICARAGUA COSTA RICA VENEZUELA PANAMA COLOMBIA ECUADOR PERU BRAZIL BOLIVIA Evolution of the level of support in relation PARAGUAY to the period January-February 2021 The level of support dropped by more than 3% CHILE URUGUAY The level of support raised by more than 3% ARGENTINA The level of support remained +/- 3% No data Source: Author's own elaboration based on a compilation of public opinion surveys carries out between March and April 2021. To see the sources, click here. 7 IMAGE OF POWER. POWER OF AN IMAGE What are the main concerns of the public? Despite the worsening health situation The following table shows some of the throughout the region and delays in the issues that most concern citizens today, implementation of vaccination plans, based on a compilation of surveys COVID-19 is not the main concern of the conducted between March and April. public at the moment. Ranking in citizens' concerns Facts in figures by country Unemployment 1° Brazil, Costa Rica, El Salvador, - More than 26 million people lost their jobs in Dominican Republic and Uruguay Latin America and the Caribbean during 2020.
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