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Estimating the Effects of September 11 on Las Vegas Strip Gaming Volume UNLV Retrospective Theses & Dissertations 1-1-2005 Estimating the effects of September 11 on Las Vegas Strip gaming volume David Eisendrath University of Nevada, Las Vegas Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalscholarship.unlv.edu/rtds Repository Citation Eisendrath, David, "Estimating the effects of September 11 on Las Vegas Strip gaming volume" (2005). UNLV Retrospective Theses & Dissertations. 1825. http://dx.doi.org/10.25669/etky-zkcd This Thesis is protected by copyright and/or related rights. It has been brought to you by Digital Scholarship@UNLV with permission from the rights-holder(s). You are free to use this Thesis in any way that is permitted by the copyright and related rights legislation that applies to your use. For other uses you need to obtain permission from the rights-holder(s) directly, unless additional rights are indicated by a Creative Commons license in the record and/ or on the work itself. This Thesis has been accepted for inclusion in UNLV Retrospective Theses & Dissertations by an authorized administrator of Digital Scholarship@UNLV. For more information, please contact [email protected]. ESTIMATING THE EFFECTS OF SEPTEMBER 11 ON LAS VEGAS STRIP GAMING VOLUME by David Eisendrath Bachelor of Business Administration University of Wisconsin, Madison 1998 A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Master of Science in Hotel Administration William F. Harrah College of Hotel Administration Graduate College University of Nevada, Las Vegas August 2005 Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. UMI Number: 1429699 Copyright 2005 by Eisendrath, David All rights reserved. INFORMATION TO USERS The quality of this reproduction is dependent upon the quality of the copy submitted. Broken or indistinct print, colored or poor quality illustrations and photographs, print bleed-through, substandard margins, and improper alignment can adversely affect reproduction. In the unlikely event that the author did not send a complete manuscript and there are missing pages, these will be noted. Also, if unauthorized copyright material had to be removed, a note will indicate the deletion. UMI UMI Microform 1429699 Copyright 2006 by ProQuest Information and Learning Company. All rights reserved. This microform edition is protected against unauthorized copying under Title 17, United States Code. ProQuest Information and Learning Company 300 North Zeeb Road P.O. Box 1346 Ann Arbor, Ml 48106-1346 Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. Copyright by David Eisendrath 2005 All Rights Reserved Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. Thesis Approval uNiy The Graduate College University of Nevada, Las Vegas May 19 05 _, 20. The Thesis prepared by David Eisendrath Entitled Estimating the Effects of September 11 on Las Vegas Strip Gaming Volume is approved in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Hotel Administration __________ atiktuCommittee Chair SX Dean of the Graduate College ExaminatiorhQommittee Member Exammation Committee Member Graduate College Faculty Representative 11 Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. ABSTRACT Estimating the Effects of September 11 on Las Vegas Strip Gaming Volume by David Eisendrath Dr. Bo Bernhard, Examination Committee Chair Assistant Professor of Sociology University of Nevada, Las Vegas This paper examines the decrease in gross gaming volume, specifically slot machine coin-in, on the Las Vegas Strip resulting from the events of September 11, 2001. An intervention analysis based on a seasonal ARIMA model was developed from Nevada Gaming Control Board slot machine coin-in data analyzed from January 1990 to November 2004. The findings revealed that the Strip experienced an abrupt decline in gaming volume lasting five months. Although a quick recovery ensued, residual effects lasted approximately two years. In spite of the uniqueness of the events of September 11, this study should help managers in their response to future terrorist attacks and other catastrophic events. m Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT.................................................................................................................................. iii LIST OF TABLES.........................................................................................................................v LIST OF FIGURES..................................................................................................................... vi CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION............................................................................................ 1 CHAPTER 2 REVIEW OF RELATED LITERATURE................ 4 Effects of 9/11 ..........................................................................................................................4 Las Vegas and September 11 .................................................................................................7 Historical Effects of Terrorism on Tourism .......................................................................12 Forecasting Gaming Revenue ............................................................................................. 16 Forecasting Tourism Demand ............................................................................................. 23 CHAPTER 3 METHODOLOGY.........................................................................................27 Data Collection ..................................................................................................................... 27 Selection of Time Series Model ..........................................................................................28 CHAPTER 4 FINDDIGS OF THE STUDY......................................................................29 Analysis of Data .................................................................................................................... 29 Discussion of Results ........................................................................................................... 42 CHAPTER 5 SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS, AND RECOMMENDATIONS 44 Future Implications ...............................................................................................................44 Recommendations for Further Study ................................................................................. 45 Limitations .............................................................................................................................46 Conclusion .............................................................................................................................47 APPENDIX ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS............................................................................48 BLBLIOGRAPHY...................................................................................................................... 54 VITA..............................................................................................................................................59 IV Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. LIST OF TABLES Table 1 Stock Market Performance Post-9/11 .......................................................................6 Table 2 Overview of Selected Gaming Markets ................................................................10 Table 3 Overview of Selected Terrorist Attacks ................................................................13 Table 4 Learning Curve Model ............................................................................................. 21 Table 5 Resort Property Life-Cycle Stages ........................................................................ 22 Table 6 Las Vegas Strip Slot vs. Table & Games Win ...................................................... 27 Table 7 Box-Ljung Statistics for ARIMA Model (0,1,1) x (1,0,0) ....................................33 Table 8 Significant Las Vegas Strip Property Openings ...................................................36 Table 9 Box-Ljung Statistics for ARIMA Model (0,1,1) x (1,0,0) with Strip Property Openings .....................................................................................................39 Table 10 Box-Ljung Statistics for Post-August 2001 Prediction ARIMA Model .............49 Table 11 Box-Ljung Statistics for Post-January 2002 Prediction ARIMA Model ............52 Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. LIST OF FIGURES Figure I Intervention functions ............................................................................................. 15 Figure 2 Seasonal decomposition of data ............................................................................30 Figure 3 Time series plot of integrated series ..................................................................... 31 Figure 4 ACF and PACF residual plots of integrated series ............................................. 3 1 Figure 5 ACF and PACF residual plots of ARIMA Model (0,1,1) x (1,0,0) ..................32 Figure 6 Normal probability plot of residuals for ARIMA model (0,1,1) x (1,0,0) ......35 Figure 7 ACF and PACF residual plots of ARIMA Model
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