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Factors Affecting Kenya Shillings Volatility Against the United States Dollar

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Factors Affecting Kenya Shillings Volatility Against the United States Dollar FACTORS AFFECTING KENYA SHILLINGS VOLATILITY AGAINST THE UNITED STATES DOLLAR NICHOLAS NTHENGE KYULE A RESEARCH PROJECT SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE AWARD OF THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE IN FINANCE, SCHOOL OF BUSINESS, OF THE UNIVERSITY OF NAIROBI OCTOBER 2016 DECLARATION I, the undersigned, declare that this research project proposal is my original work, and that it has not been presented to any other university or institution of higher learning for academic credit. NAME: NICHOLAS NTHENGE KYULE ADM: D63/74789/2014 Signature: ................................................ Date: ............................................. This research project proposal has been submitted for presentation with my approval as university supervisor. SUPERVISOR: DR. KENNEDY OKIRO SENIOR LECTURER UNIVERSITY OF NAIROBI SCHOOL OF BUSINESS Signature: …………………………..... Date............................................. ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENT First and foremost our gratitude goes to my research project supervisor Dr. Kennedy Okiro for not only providing unlimited, invaluable and active guidance throughout the study but also for his constructive criticisms that helped shape up this project to the product it is now. Secondly, I owe my gratitude to the many people who in one way or another made contributions towards completion of this project though it’s impossible to mention them all. Last but not least, I thank my family for their moral, spiritual support and encouragement throughout my period of study. iii DEDICATION I dedicate this research project to my family, Wife Virginia and daughter Rita Mwikali. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS DECLARATION.............................................................................................................. II ACKNOWLEDGEMENT .............................................................................................. III DEDICATION................................................................................................................. IV LIST OF TABLES ....................................................................................................... VIII ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ....................................................................... IX ABSTRACT ....................................................................................................................... X CHAPTER ONE ................................................................................................................1 INTRODUCTION..............................................................................................................1 1.1 Background Of The Study .............................................................................................1 1.2 Currency Volatility ........................................................................................................2 1.3. Factors Affecting Kenya Shillings Volatility ...............................................................4 1.3.1 Inflation Rate Differences ...........................................................................................4 1.3.2. Interest Rates ..............................................................................................................5 1.3.3 Balance Of Payments ..................................................................................................5 1.3.4 Gdp Growth Rate ........................................................................................................5 1.4 Research Problem ..........................................................................................................6 1.3 Research Objective ........................................................................................................8 1.4 Value Of The Study .......................................................................................................8 v CHAPTER TWO .............................................................................................................10 LITERATURE REVIEW ...............................................................................................10 2.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................10 2.2 Theoretical Framework ................................................................................................10 2.2.1 The Balance Of Payments Theory ............................................................................10 2.2.2 Trade Theory .............................................................................................................11 2.2.3 Interest Rate Parity Theory .......................................................................................12 2.2.4 Purchasing Power Parity Theory ..............................................................................13 2.3 Determinants Of Currency Volatility ...........................................................................14 2.3.1 Balance Of Payment (Importation And Exportation Rates) .....................................14 2.3.3 Gdp Growth Rate ......................................................................................................18 2.4 Empirical Review.........................................................................................................20 CHAPTER THREE .........................................................................................................26 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY ...................................................................................26 3.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................26 3.2 Research Design...........................................................................................................26 3.3 Population ....................................................................................................................26 3.5 Data Collection ............................................................................................................27 3.6 Data Analysis ...............................................................................................................27 3.6.1 Analytical Model ......................................................................................................28 vi 3.7. TEST OF SIGNIFICANCE .....................................................................................28 CHAPTER FOUR ............................................................................................................29 DATA ANALYSIS, RESULTS AND DISCUSSION ....................................................29 4.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................29 4.2 Descriptive Statistics ....................................................................................................29 4.3 Correlations Analysis ...................................................................................................30 4.4 Regression Analysis .....................................................................................................31 4.5 Discussion Of Findings ................................................................................................33 CHAPTER FIVE .............................................................................................................36 SUMMARY, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS ...................................36 5.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................36 5.2 Summary Of Findings ..................................................................................................36 5.3 Conclusion ...................................................................................................................38 5.4 Recommendations For Policy And Practice ................................................................39 5.5 Limitations Of The Study ............................................................................................40 5.6 Areas For Further Research .........................................................................................41 REFERENCES .................................................................................................................43 APPENDICES ..................................................................................................................46 APPENDIX I: EXCHANGE RATE,GDP GROWTH, INTEREST,INFLATION AND TRADE BALANCE DATA………………………………………… 46 vii LIST OF TABLES Table 4.1: Descriptive Statistics. .......................................................................................29 Table 4.2: Correlations Coefficient....................................................................................30 Table 4.3: Regression Model Summary.............................................................................31 Table 4.4: Analysis of Variance........................................................................................32 Table 4.5: Regression Model Coefficients.........................................................................32 viii ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS CBK: Central Bank of Kenya CEPR: Centre for Economic Policy Research DKK: Danish Krone ECB: European Central Bank EMS: European Monetary System FDI: Foreign Domestic Investments GDP: Gross Domestic Product IPR: Interest Rate Parity KBA: Kenya Bureau of Statistics KES: Kenya Shilling
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