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Current Practices in Attribution and Roi Analysis

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Current Practices in Attribution and Roi Analysis CURRENT As few as four years ago, marketing mix models ruled media and marketing budget allocation and PRACTICES IN the new approach, attribution, was purely about digital paths and allocation. The gulf between the ATTRIBUTION AND two systems that have similar outcomes (contribution to sales) was wide. ROI ANALYSIS Today, the two are coming closer together. Mix models can now incorporate attribution and A White Paper For attribution is striving to incorporate media and The Coalition for Innovative marketing events beyond digital. But it’s a Media Measurement confusing time – there are many vendors, many and The 4A’s promises, and many different approaches emerging in ROI evaluation. February, 2017 Research Process Introduction We were asked by the Coalition for Innovative “We are looking into adapting marketing mix Media Measurement and the 4A’s Media modeling into something more dynamic and Measurement Task Force to articulate the current useful – more like attribution.” state of marketing/media ROI analysis – and marketing mix models and attribution in And there you have it. The reason for all the particular. We started off by interviewing seven interest in new methods of ROI analysis – “more industry experts and with insights from that dynamic and useful” -- moving past the annual phase, developed a Request for Information from review of marketing ROI and reallocation of a variety of research providers throughout the budgets to the “near real-time” tactical guidance industry. Twenty-one firms replied to the RFI. It to yield better ROIs during the campaign. is on this foundation that we address current practices in Marketing ROI measurement. But the requirements for success are high and well, in truth, the industry isn’t there yet … Before we get too far into our study, what is despite the swift and sweeping change in what Attribution, and what are Marketing Mix Models? you hear and what people are talking about. You wouldn’t know that the industry isn’t there from Definitions - Attribution looking at claims providers are making. As in any early-stage market, there’s a lot of hyperbole and Attribution is simply the process of assigning over-promising. (Can everyone be using “best in credit to the marketing stimuli consumers class” data and analytics?) We are very excited encounter along the path to “conversion” – about the pace of change, but it’s important taking action, sales etc. Sometimes driven by every once in a while to stop and see where we “rules” or algorithms, sometimes by statistical are, where we’re going and what it’s going to models, attribution assigns value to each take to get there. element’s ability to drive traffic and sales. A CURRENT PRACTICES IN ATTRIBUTION AND ROI ANALYSIS distinguishing characteristic of attribution is that Definitions – Marketing Mix it operates at a micro level – individual persons, Models (MMM) households, devices and events. Marketing Mix Modeling, essentially, has meant The definition gets more complicated because the same thing for the past 30 or so years. Mix there are a number of different ways of talking models involve the application of regression and about attribution: other statistical approaches to estimate the impact of various marketing elements on Digital attribution – generally includes one or incremental sales. They assess the effectiveness more trackable online element on both of spending by channel over and above a baseline computers and mobile – display, paid of sales that would have occurred without any search, organic search, email, etc. marketing efforts. MMM typically include other Television-Attribution – studies the impact of explanatory factors like seasonality, competitive television advertising on digital outcomes activities and trade and consumer promotion. such as website or app traffic Multi-Touch Attribution “MTA”– incorporates Marketing mix modeling is attractive because an important distinction, promising that most marketers have years of experience with it all digital touchpoints, including social, are and rely on it for broad strategic analysis of the included in the evaluation. effectiveness of marketing investments. Cross-Channel Attribution “CCA” – the Generally, the Finance department and CFOs integration of offline media like television, have conformed their systems to MMM and rely magazines, radio and outdoor. This is on the performance-based results for annual clearly the ideal that marketers seek. It is budget setting insights. not often found among the offerings we analyzed for this study. When it is, there are often many questions about the data Sequent Partners recommends that used to feed the process. It’s a goal but potential buyers and users ask questions and the lack of addressable/programmatic clarify how providers are using these modeling inventory in offline media precludes this terms and what they mean. A common from being a significant factor today. understanding of terms will minimize misunderstanding and disappointment. Attribution is attractive because intrinsic in the analysis is an understanding of the consumer journey, or path. Digital data are very discrete and provided in “near real time” data which Current Uses allows for mid-flight optimization. A recent study by the Mobile Marketing Keen to apply the same approach to non-digital Association showed that 39% of marketers media, they are experimenting with new data. currently use multi-touch attribution and that Unfortunately, as we will see, there are few number is expected to grow to 75% in the next “closed loop systems” in other media like those two years. that have driven the success of digital attribution. Attribution provides device or persons-level insights about the full range of digital options. 2 February 2 0 1 7 CURRENT PRACTICES IN ATTRIBUTION AND ROI ANALYSIS This allows marketers to optimize at a very Today, marketers are pushing for more frequent, tactical level to improve performance and return. timely, granular and integrated “top Guiding tactical decision-making is one of down/bottom up” perspectives. attribution’s strongest applications. One of the marketers told us “We are two years By comparison, marketing mix models provide into the journey still doing the same market-level, store-level insights and are backed measurement and MMM we did then. We are just data from strong syndicated sources on both the now starting to trust some of the new techniques. input and output side of the equation. The ability 90% of the stuff doesn’t work. The techniques to inform channel-level strategies is marketing have more error than anyone wants.” mix modeling’s greatest application and its prevalence in the industry demonstrates its When attribution began, simple algorithms were reliability. Once the purview of packaged goods used – and data were fit to a priori pre-set advertisers, marketing mix modeling are now solutions. Today, more complex statistical used in virtually all product and service categories methods are used to infer causality rather than -- financial services, travel, pharmaceuticals, “Last Click,” “First Click” “U”, “W” or “M” rules retail, etc. and configurations. Attribution Strengths: Strengths and Weaknesses • Examines creative executions, media placements and the synergistic combinations Attribution and marketing mix are different of the two analyses that answer essentially the same • Provides outputs at a level of granularity to fundamental questions: is the budget right? Is impact timing and tactical decisions the media mix paying off? Where should I invest – Models can be updated weekly; digital more or less? data ingested daily; limited analytic feeds to television programmatic Marketing Mix Model Strengths: • Covers new ground with novel techniques like • A complete model - explains most of the AI and game theory variance in sales • Most advanced providers link to DMPs, • Statistical techniques proven over time; programmatic buying/selling platforms and understood by management dynamic ad targeting • Accounts for all major sales drivers; less likely to misattribute cross-media contributions Attribution Weaknesses: • No privacy concerns with the data • Digital can get too much credit if other factors aren’t accounted for • Most systems do not account for a baseline of Marketing Mix Model Weaknesses: sales, or prior consumer purchase habits • Mix models are considered too slow, too macro • HH-level data quality can be questionable and and too backwards-thinking timing slow • Typically conducted annually • Involves untested data and techniques; too • Insufficient granularity and timing to drive little experience to know what works best for tactical decisions and optimization specific purposes • Dissatisfaction emerging 3 February 2 0 1 7 CURRENT PRACTICES IN ATTRIBUTION AND ROI ANALYSIS • Depends on imputation of offline media, 1. Integrated MMM Plus may/may not consider price, promotion, Attribution brand momentum or factors like the weather and economy Top-down and bottom-up, integrated marketing • Fair amount of salesmanship in this arena; mix modeling plus attribution would appear to lack of transparency in the techniques offer the best of both techniques. This approach can offer a full revenue attribution of offline and And in this transitional period, the industry is online marketing elements together. MMM is wrestling with the right model for the right used to determine ROIs and contributions of each application. When attribution and marketing mix medium in the context of the complete marketing modeling tackle the same questions,
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