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1St Crops of Sires Are Potent

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1St Crops of Sires Are Potent SATURDAY, JULY 13, 2019 TAKING STOCK: 1ST CROPS FORMER HOLLENDORFER ASSISTANT DAN WARD TO OPERATE DEL MAR STABLE OF SIRES ARE POTENT by Bill Finley Dan Ward, a longtime assistant to trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, will operate a stable of his own at the upcoming Del Mar meet. The story was first reported by the Daily Racing Form's Steve Anderson. The TDN spoke to Hollendorfer's attorney Drew Couto early Friday and he confirmed that Hollendorfer himself will not be entering any horses when entries are taken for the opening day card. Del Mar opens Wednesday and entries for the first card will be taken Saturday. Though Del Mar has yet to make any official announcements concerning Hollendorfer's status for the meet, they did not allocate him any stalls. Cont. p5 Hip 333, the $330,000 Nyquist colt from Fasig July | F-T Photo by Sid Fernando IN TDN EUROPE TODAY Fasig-Tipton’s July Sale this past week once again highlighted FIGURES RISE AT TATTERSALLS JULY the allure of yearlings by first-crop sires. In particular, Darley’s The Tattersalls July Sale came to a close on Friday with rises duo of Frosted (Tapit) and Nyquist (Uncle Mo) had the sale’s co- across all key indicators and a new top lot. second-highest lots at $330,000 each, while the WinStar young Click or tap here to go straight to TDN Europe. guns Outwork (Uncle Mo) and Speightster (Speightstown) had the fourth- and fifth-highest sales at $300,000 and $285,000, respectively. Spendthrift’s Brody’s Cause (Giant’s Causeway) had a $240,000 filly, Claiborne’s Runhappy (Super Saver) had a $225,000 sale, and Taylor Made’s Not This Time (Giant’s Causeway) had a $200,000 colt in a sale where the average price was $92,183. Although it’s difficult to predict sire success, there’s a reason why buyers wildcat new horses: first crops frequently tend to be the best crops by percentage of black-type winners to named foals. As a general rule, moreover, they are better than second crops. Why? Because, more often than not, stallions tend to get their best mares in their first books, relative to stud fee. And if you subscribe to this theory, you understand that there are only a finite number of quality mares at each stud fee price point, and the new horses are getting the lion’s share of them, leaving proven older horses with weaker overall books vis-à-vis the unproven at each level. Cont. p3 PUBLISHER & CEO Sue Morris Finley @suefinley [email protected] V.P., INTERNATIONAL OPERATIONS Gary King @garykingTDN [email protected] EDITORIAL [email protected] Editor-in-Chief Jessica Martini @JessMartiniTDN Managing Editor Saturday, July 13, 2019 Alan Carasso @EquinealTDN Senior Editor Steve Sherack @SteveSherackTDN Racing Editor Brian DiDonato @BDiDonatoTDN News and Features Editor Ben Massam @BMassamTDN Associate Editors Christie DeBernardis @CDeBernardisTDN Joe Bianca @JBiancaTDN ADVERTISING [email protected] Director of Advertising Alycia Borer Advertising Manager Lia Best Advertising Designer Amanda Crelin Advertising Assistants Alexa Reisfield Amie Morosco Advertising Assistant/Dir. Of Distribution Rachel McCaffrey Photographer/Photo Editor Sarah K. Andrew @SarahKAndrew [email protected] GIII Sanford S. entrant By Your Side (Constitution) clowns around with Kelly Wheeler at Saratoga Race Course on Thursday morning. | Sarah Andrew Social Media Strategist Justina Severni TODAY’S GRADED STAKES Director of Customer Service EST Race Click for TV Vicki Forbes [email protected] 9:40a John Smith’s Silver Cup S.-G3, YOR -------------- TVG 9:55a bet365 Superlative S.-G2, NMK -------------- TVG Marketing Manager 11:00a Fred Cowley MBE Memorial Summer Mile S.-G2, ASC -------------- TVG Alayna Cullen @AlaynaCullen 11:40a Darley July Cup S.-G1, NMK -------------- TVG Director of Information Technology 12:27p Prix de Ris-Orangis-G3, MLF -------------- ------- Ray Villa 2:10p Sanford S.-GIII, SAR TJCIS PPs FS2 [email protected] 4:50p Ontario Matron S.-GIII, WO TJCIS PPs TVG 5:12p Modesty H.-GIII, AP TJCIS PPs TVG Bookkeeper Terry May 5:25p Delaware H.-GII, DEL TJCIS PPs TVG [email protected] 5:46p Diana S.-GI, SAR TJCIS PPs FS2 5:46p Arlington H.-GIII, AP TJCIS PPs TVG WORLDWIDE INFORMATION International Editor 6:19p American Derby-GIII, AP TJCIS PPs TVG Kelsey Riley @kelseynrileyTDN 6:28p Los Alamitos Derby-GIII, LRC TJCIS PPs TVG [email protected] 9:10p Indiana Oaks-GIII, IND TJCIS PPs TVG European Editor 10:02p Indiana Derby-GIII, IND TJCIS PPs TVG Emma Berry [email protected] Associate International Editor Heather Anderson @HLAndersonTDN Newmarket Bureau, Cafe Racing Sean Cronin & Tom Frary [email protected] 60 Broad Street, Suite 100 Red Bank, NJ 07701 732-747-8060 | 732-747-8955 (fax) www.TheTDN.com TDN HEADLINE NEWS • PAGE 3 OF 13 • THETDN.COM SATURDAY • JULY 13, 2019 minor, but in others there are significant variances. Two sires (10%) had the same percentages in both crops: Lookin At Lucky (7%) and Medaglia d’Oro (11%). Four (20%) had higher yields in their second crops. They are Cont. from p1 Kitten’s Joy (6% vs. 10%), Candy Ride (Arg) (7% vs. 9%), Flatter Aside from the prepotency of some new sires, this can also (5% vs. 13%), and Malibu Moon (8% vs. 11%). explain the first-crop successes of such stallions as Medaglia There are probably some legitimate explanations for the four d’Oro (Rachel Alexandra in first crop), Street Cry (Ire) (Zenyatta, with better performances in their second crops. Two of them, Street Sense), and Uncle Mo (Nyquist), to name a few. the A.P. Indy non-stakes-winners Malibu Moon and Flatter, had To illustrate this point, see the accompanying chart on page 4, the least expensive initial fees from this group at $3,500 and where the top 20 active leading sires of 2018 by earnings $5,000, respectively, and there isn’t a significant difference in standing in North America are listed with their black-type the quality of mares in that price range to make a difference. winners and black-type percentages from named foals in their Nevertheless, both horses had big-name backers behind them-- first two crops. Note that overall their later crops are not as B. Wayne Hughes for Malibu Moon and Claiborne for Flatter-- strong as their first ones. and it’s notable that Malibu Moon’s third crop (13%) is his best Of these 20, 14 (70%) had a higher percentage of black-type to date while Flatter’s second crop (13%) is his best. winners in their first crops than in their second. This group Candy Ride entered stud for $10,000 at Hill ‘n’ Dale after a consists of Into Mischief (17% vs. 11%), More Than Ready (16% year away from the track and with an Argentine pedigree that vs. 9%), Tapit (15% vs. 8%), Empire Maker (11% vs. 9%), Curlin would have given some breeders pause, and he was probably a (9% vs. 4%), Quality Road (6% vs. 5%), Street Sense (9% vs 7%), harder sell his first year after he’d receded from memory than Speightstown (15% vs. 10%), Hard Spun (12% vs. 11%), War he was in his second, when he was active in the shed, was Front (15% vs. 8%), Ghostzapper (11% vs. 8%), Uncle Mo (16% around to be viewed, and was once again remembered as a top- vs. 9%), Congrats (9% vs. 3%), and English Channel (13% vs. 2%). class horse. His second and ninth crops (both 9%) are his best to In some cases, the differences between the two crops are date. Cont. p4 TDN HEADLINE NEWS • PAGE 4 OF 13 • THETDN.COM SATURDAY • JULY 13, 2019 Taking Stock cont. In fact, almost half (nine, or 45%) of these 20 stallions’ first Kitten’s Joy, a turf champion for Ken and Sarah Ramsey at their crops have been their best to date by percentage of black-type Ramsey Farm, wasn’t a commercial proposition when he initially winners to named foals. This group includes Into Mischief, More entered stud. He was self-made by the owners, who bought and Than Ready, Tapit, Empire Maker, Lookin At Lucky, Hard Spun, claimed mares for him. They probably bought better stock each Uncle Mo, Congrats, and English Channel. subsequent year after the first, and they took advantage of Another five (25%)--Quality Road, Malibu Moon, Street Sense, various state breeding programs and found greater non-dirt War Front, and Ghostzapper--have their third crops as their best opportunity during a time when synthetics and turf were on the to date. There is an explanation for this anomaly: by the second rise to increase the horse’s black-type chances. Kitten’s Joy’s year at stud, first-crop foals are arriving, and by the third fourth crop (16%) is his best to date, and he’s now at Hill ‘n’ Dale breeding season breeders have seen what a horse is throwing. under commercial management and yet may exceed his high- Exceptional foals and weanlings will rekindle interest, and this, water mark. coupled with reduced fees that are common in the third year, The other 14 (with perhaps the exception of Congrats, who can bolster a third book significantly enough to sometimes started off in Florida) were straightforward commercial horses surpass the quality of a first book, especially in terms of physical at their respective fees. Stud farms recruit quantity, quality, and matches. In fact, Curlin’s third crop yielded a higher percentage precocity for these types more vigorously than they do for older of black-type winners than his first crop (11% vs.
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