Montana Statewide Assessment of Forest Conditions Draft V9.0 9/25/2020
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Montana Statewide Assessment of Forest Conditions Draft V9.0 9/25/2020 Table of Contents Statewide Assessment of Forest Conditions ________________________________________ 3 Montana’s Forested Landscapes ______________________________________________________ 4 Climate Change ____________________________________________________________________ 4 Indigenous Peoples & Forests ________________________________________________________ 6 Montana’s Forest Ownership _______________________________________________________ 13 Forest Collaboration & Collaborative Capacity in Montana ________________________________ 15 Forest Health _______________________________________________________________ 17 Forest Stand Conditions ____________________________________________________________ 18 Forest Soil Conditions______________________________________________________________ 29 Insects & Diseases ________________________________________________________________ 30 Invasive Species __________________________________________________________________ 38 Wildfire Risk ________________________________________________________________ 48 Working Forests & Economies __________________________________________________ 69 Forest Products: Industry, Market Development, & Innovation ____________________________ 71 Road Infrastructure on Forested Lands ________________________________________________ 81 Biodiversity & Habitat Conservation _____________________________________________ 87 Wildlife _________________________________________________________________________ 87 Aquatic Ecology _________________________________________________________________ 100 Human & Community Health __________________________________________________ 109 Air Quality ______________________________________________________________________ 109 Water Resources ________________________________________________________________ 113 Recreational Uses of Forested Lands _________________________________________________ 123 Community Readiness & Capacity ___________________________________________________ 129 Urban & Community Forestry _________________________________________________ 138 Priority Areas for Focused Attention ____________________________________________ 153 Description of Priority Areas for Focused Attention _____________________________________ 153 Priority Area Identification and Methodology _________________________________________ 154 Multi-State Priority Areas _________________________________________________________ 161 Statewide Resource Strategy __________________________________________________ 162 Implementation Recommendations _________________________________________________ 162 Stakeholder Engagement Process ______________________________________________ 163 References Cited ____________________________________________________________ 166 Appendix __________________________________________________________________ 185 Forest Legacy Assessment of Need __________________________________________________ 191 Acknowledgements ______________________________________________________________ 185 List of Acronyms _________________________________________________________________ 187 Glossary of Terms ________________________________________________________________ 188 Statewide Assessment of Forest Conditions The purpose of the Statewide Assessment of Forest Conditions is to identify conditions and trends concerning state forest resources and highlight threats to forest lands and resources consistent with national priorities. The Montana Forest Action Advisory Council (MFAAC) has worked in earnest to identify components of this assessment with the objective of informing future cross-boundary actions. This document represents the work of MFAAC members and that of over 30 contributing authors from state, federal, and tribal governments, as well as other partners who conduct research on topics relevant to Montana’s forests. Montana’s Statewide Assessment of Forest Conditions (Assessment) aims to facilitate understanding and communication regarding conditions and issues common to all forest lands in Montana, with a primary focus on forest health and wildfire risk. The Assessment opens with a general overview of information on the following topics deemed important by the MFAAC: climate change as it relates to Montana’s forests; a brief history of Indigenous peoples and forests; a breakdown of Montana forest ownership; and a short background on forest- based collaboration and collaborative capacity. Following this introductory information, the Assessment covers six main topics: Forest Health; Wildfire Risk; Working Forests & Economies; Biodiversity & Habitat Conservation; Human Health & Community Considerations; and Urban & Community Forestry. The MFAAC and contributors have included information in these sections that is general enough to be applicable statewide yet specific enough to capture key information for understanding the scope and scale of issues facing Montana’s forests. The general format for these six sections is as follows: • Introduction; • Current Conditions & Trends; • Issues, Threats, & Challenges that perpetuate current conditions and trends; • Opportunities to resolve issues, threats, and challenges; • Existing Strategies that take advantage of those opportunities to address issues, threats, and challenges; and • Data & Program Gaps that, if addressed, would help managers better understand or develop strategies. The information in this Assessment was key in driving the identification of Priority Areas for Focused Attention and in the development of the Statewide Forest Resource Strategies, and is summarized as key findings in the Montana Forest Action Plan. Montana’s Forested Landscapes Forests are one of Montana’s most significant natural resources, covering over 23 million acres, or one- fourth of the state’s total area. Montana has always been shaped by its forests. Whether it’s the mixed conifer forests of the west or the predominant ponderosa pine and riparian cottonwood stands of the east, Montana’s forested environments span the state, creating extensive and diverse landscapes that benefit Montana communities. Montana’s forest lands hold great significance for the identities and economies of its residents, forming the foundations of people’s livelihoods and providing the raw materials for industries that have built strong rural economies. These forests continue to shape Montana in new and emerging ways, and to this day, Montanans hold powerful personal, economic, and cultural connections to forests across the state. For some, forests are places of growth, exploration, and connection with family, friends, and communities. For others, they are the source of livelihoods, an opportunity for recreation, and a retreat from the urban landscape many Montanans live in. Climate Change The subsequent pillars of the Assessment—Forest Conditions, Wildfire Risk, Working Forests & Economies, Biodiversity & Habitat Conservation, Human Health & Community Considerations, and Urban & Community Forestry—are all affected by climate change in various ways. Understanding current and future changes in climate is of critical importance to the state of Montana because of the potential effects on natural resources, the economy, and well-being. This section of the Assessment discusses climate change as it relates to Montana’s forested landscapes and is a synthesis of findings from the Montana Climate Assessment (Whitlock et al., 2017). Given climate change’s potential impacts on Montana’s forests and communities, short and long-term planning efforts should focus on managing Montana’s forests for future resiliency while reducing the threat of wildfire to communities and infrastructure. The Montana Climate Assessment is a peer-reviewed statewide assessment that provides scientific information on the current and projected effects of climate change on the state’s water resources, agricultural industry, and forested lands. The following is a summarization of key messages from the Montana Climate Assessment: • From 1950-2015, annual average temperatures rose between 2-3 °F across Montana, approximately double the rate of the nation as a whole. • From 1950-2015, winter and spring average temperatures rose by 3.9 °F. • The growing season in Montana increased by 12 days from 1951-2010. • From 1951-2010, the number of warm days per year—where the maximum temperature rises above 90 °F—increased by 2% and the number of cool nights per year, based on historical conditions, decreased by 4.6%. • From 1950-2015, the “average winter precipitation has decreased by 0.9 inches” across the state and average spring precipitation has increased by 1.3-2 inches in the east. • Temperatures across the state are projected to increase by 4.5-6 °F by 2050 and by 5.6-9.8 °F by 2100, which is higher than projected for much of the country. • Daily temperatures are expected to rise above 90 °F more often across the state, especially in the east, and frost-free days are expected to increase across the state, especially in the west. • Precipitation is projected to decline in summer months, particularly in central and southern Montana, but increase in all other months, particularly in the south. Draft 2020 Montana Forest Action Plan 4 • Snowpack is expected to continue to decline substantially. Scientists expect that climate change will likely have profound and lasting effects on Montana’s forested landscapes. Past and current forest conditions, weather, climate, and site-specific ecological conditions—such as species