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DU FRANC CFA a L'eco : QUELLE MONNAIE POUR QUEL DEVELOPPEMENT EN AFRIQUE DE L'ouest ? SOUS LA DIRECTION DE Kako NUBUKPO

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DU FRANC CFA a L'eco : QUELLE MONNAIE POUR QUEL DEVELOPPEMENT EN AFRIQUE DE L'ouest ? SOUS LA DIRECTION DE Kako NUBUKPO FACULTE DES SCIENCES ECONOMIQUES ET DE GESTION DU FRANC CFA A L’ECO : QUELLE MONNAIE POUR QUEL DEVELOPPEMENT EN AFRIQUE DE L’OUEST ? SOUS LA DIRECTION DE Kako NUBUKPO Mai 2021 Remerciements Les auteurs tiennent à remercier Cristina d’Alessandro, Gilles Lainé, Massimo Amato, Jeanne Awa Ba, Demba Moussa Dembélé, Martial Ze Belinga, Aline Grange, Alexandre Minet, Laurent Cohen, Pierre Jacquemot et Dominique Strauss-Kahn pour leurs contributions, observations, remarques et corrections relatives au présent document. Les auteurs restent cependant seuls responsables des opinions émises dans le présent document, ainsi que des erreurs ou omissions qui y subsisteraient. 2 Sommaire Résumé exécutif .......................................................................................................................... 7 Introduction générale ................................................................................................................ 11 Chapitre 1 : Du franc CFA à l’éco : retour sur une conversion monétaire controversée .......... 16 1- Quelques éléments d’histoire ............................................................................................. 18 2- La dévaluation du franc CFA de janvier 1994 : pourquoi ? .............................................. 19 3- Au-delà de la dévaluation du franc CFA, l’enjeu économique de la zone franc ............... 31 4- L’enjeu politique et sociétal .............................................................................................. 38 5- Les perspectives : quelles options de transition du franc CFA à l’éco ? ........................... 42 Conclusion ................................................................................................................................ 48 Chapitre 2 : Système bancaire et financier de la CEDEAO ...................................................... 50 1- Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 51 2- Niveau de développement financier des pays de la zone CEDEAO ................................. 51 3- Analyse de la structure du secteur bancaire de l’UEMOA ................................................ 63 4- Système de financement des économies de l’UEMOA ..................................................... 74 5- Conclusion ......................................................................................................................... 84 Chapitre 3 : OUVERTURE FINANCIERE ET PERFORMANCE DES INSTITUTIONS FINANCIERE DANS LA ZONE CEDEAO ............................................................................ 86 Résumé ...................................................................................................................................... 87 1- Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 88 2- Revue de littérature ............................................................................................................ 88 3- Méthodologie ..................................................................................................................... 95 Chapitre 4 : Inégalité des revenus, croissance économique et inflation dans la CEDEAO .... 105 Résumé .................................................................................................................................... 106 3 1- Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 107 2- Méthodologie ................................................................................................................... 110 3- Données ........................................................................................................................... 113 4- Résultats et interprétations............................................................................................... 116 5- Conclusion ....................................................................................................................... 119 Chapitre 5 : Incertitude et Orientation de la Politique Monétaire dans la CEDEAO : Evidence des Modèles VAR ......................................................................................................................... 131 Résumé .................................................................................................................................... 132 1- Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 133 2- Le modèle dynamique ..................................................................................................... 138 3- Interprétation du modèle VAR ........................................................................................ 140 4- Les données ..................................................................................................................... 141 5- Estimation du modèle VAR ............................................................................................. 142 6- Politique optimale en présence de l'incertitude additive ................................................. 143 7- Politique optimale en présence de l'incertitude multiplicative ........................................ 145 8- Implications de l'incertitude sur la politique optimale..................................................... 146 9- Fonctions de réponses ...................................................................................................... 148 10- Sentiers implicites du taux d’intérêt ................................................................................ 151 11- Conclusion ....................................................................................................................... 153 Chapitre 6 : Inflation et Croissance Economique : Une Mesure de L’effet Seuil dans la CEDEAO 164 Résumé .................................................................................................................................... 165 1- Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 166 2- Revue de Littérature ........................................................................................................ 167 3- Approche méthodologique .............................................................................................. 170 4 4- Résultats et discussions ................................................................................................... 173 5- Conclusion et recommandations ...................................................................................... 182 Références ............................................................................................................................... 183 Chapitre 7. Mésalignement des taux de change et performance économique des pays de la CEDEAO ................................................................................................................................ 185 Résumé .................................................................................................................................... 186 1- Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 187 2- Revue de Littérature ........................................................................................................ 188 3- Méthodologie ................................................................................................................... 193 4- Présentation et discussion des résultats ........................................................................... 199 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................. 210 Bibliographie........................................................................................................................... 211 Chapitre 8. DYNAMIQUE DES CHOCS, CONVERGENCE CYCLIQUE ET CLUBS DE CONVERGENCE DANS LA ZONE CEDEAO .................................................................... 213 Résumé .................................................................................................................................... 214 1- Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 215 2- Revue de la littérature ...................................................................................................... 217 3- Approche méthodologique .............................................................................................. 226 4- Résultats........................................................................................................................... 238 6. Discussions des résultats ................................................................................................. 245 REFERENCES BIBLIOGRAPHIQUES............................................................................ 249 Chapitre 9 : SOUVERAINETÉ ÉTATIQUE ET LIBERTÉ MONÉTAIRE : LE PARADOXE DES PAYS DE LA ZONE FRANC ................................................................................................ 265 Résumé :.................................................................................................................................. 266 1- Introduction ....................................................................................................................
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