COUNTRY STUDIES GHANA COUNTRY STUDIES GHANA I 205 GENERAL PURPOSE

FEEDBACK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT 1 OF THE MONITOR’S METHODOLOGY

EXPLAIN HOW THE ANALYSIS OF THE MONITOR 2 CAN BE USED IN A NATIONAL SITUATION

SERVE AS A KNOWLEDGE-SHARING MECHANISM FOR BEST PRACTICE AND 3 CHANGE MANAGEMENT FOR THE BENEFIT OF OTHER VULNERABLE COUNTRIES

PROVIDE AN OUTSIDE SUPPORTING ANALYSIS OF INTEREST 4 TO NATIONAL POLICY-MAKERS AND DEVELOPMENT PARTNERS 206 I COUNTRY STUDIES

Vulnerability Gender Impact Areas Indicator Confidence Bias 2010 2030 KEY FIGURES DROUGHT Population 24,965,816 FLOODS & LANDSLIDES 2012 GDP PPP (Dollars) STORMS Total $82,571,000,000 WILDFIRES Per Capita $3,312 Real Growth 8.8% BIODIVERSITY DESERTIFICATION ECONOMY HEATING & COOLING

GDP by Sector LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY Primary/Extractive 28.3% PERMAFROST Secondary/Productive 21% SEA-LEVEL RISE Tertiary/Services 50.7% WATER Key Sector(s) Services DIARRHEAL INFECTIONS CLIMATE SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT HEAT & COOL ILLNESSES HUNGER Human Development (Rank) Medium (135th) MALARIA & VECTOR BORNE Life Expectancy 64.2 years Annual Population Growth 2.3% MENINGITIS

Illiteracy 20.2% AGRICULTURE

Urban Population 52.2% FISHERIES Access to Electricity 60.5% FORESTRY Gender Development 122th HYDRO ENERGY Undernourished Population (2006/08) 5% TOURISM Living below poverty line ($1,25/day) 30% TRANSPORT Population without Improved Water Source 15.3% Official Development Assistance (% of GDP)) 6.1% Public Health Expenditure 6.9% Public Education Expenditure 5.4% OIL SANDS OIL SPILLS CLIMATE/GEOGRAPHY BIODIVERSITY Climate Zone Dry and wet tropical CORROSION Projected Rainfall Change 20-30% reduction WATER Tropical Cyclones No AIR POLLUTION Desertification Yes INDOOR SMOKE Low-Elevation Coastal Zone (10m and below) 1% CARBON OCCUPATIONAL HAZARDS Forest Cover Change (1990-2008) 30.6% SKIN CANCER MIGRATION/DISPLACEMENT AGRICULTURE Emigration Rate 4.5% FISHERIES Immigrants as Share of Total Population 7.6% FORESTRY Internally Displaced People None GHANA I 207

2010 2030 2010 2030

ACUTEW GHANA 3 MODERATEU

“Unbearable” was a word commonly offered up by residents of rural 5 NGO communities in Ghana visited by the research team, emblematic of H their view of the rising heat. Ghana was never a cool country, but an increase in average temperatures of 1 degree Celsius (1.8 degrees NGA Fahrenheit) has been recorded over the past half-century. In comparison to Ghana in the in the 1960s, the effect of this seemingly small change in temperature is striking: there are now 50 more “hot” days and almost 80 “hot” nights every year (McSweeney et al., 2012). In addition to temperature, fl oods, wind and rain storms, as well as changes in the pattern of rainfall have become serious climate-related concerns for Ghana today (EPA-Ghana, 2011). Most ecological zones of Ghana are hit by this rapid change in climate with effects already manifested in major sectors of the economy, such as agriculture, fi sheries, and forestry, with some of these ramifi cations triggering severe economic and social decline, especially in rural areas. The success of Ghana is a beacon for Sub-Saharan Africa, which is 4 2 3 plagued in many places by extreme poverty, hunger, suffering, confl ict, 1 and instability. As this report reaches publication, a humanitarian emergency across the Sahel is ongoing and extending through West Africa with some 20 million people in the grip of a major food crisis (Oxfam, 2012). All of the drivers of climate change that harm: heat, unpredictable 1 ACCRA rainfall, changes in the timing and length of the crop season, sea level NEW NINGO rise, ocean warming, to name only a few, will only intensify and hasten 2 with each passing decade. 3 ADA FOAH Few developing countries anywhere in the world offer meaningful models for tackling the climate problem at the national level. Even 4 KETA model adaptation options—such as planting medium heat-tolerant maize varieties and delaying sowing dates to minimize climate change 5 BOLGATANGA impacts—present challenges related to everything from technology transfer to cultural beliefs (Tachie-Obeng et al., 2011). However, delaying investment to attenuate the losses and risks faced by climate change only leads to still higher costs, already estimated at several percentage points of Ghana’s GDP. Climate change and/or the carbon economy are far from being Ghana’s only concerns. Indeed, with each climate-related issue, additional social, economic, and environmental problems combine to heighten vulnerabilities and the level of harm generated through the impact of climate change, which itself exacerbates economic, social, and environmental problems. With limited resources, cost-effective solutions will have to explore the MULTI-DIMENSIONAL CLIMATE VULNERABILITY: ACUTE range of competing factors responsible for vulnerability and impact in the context of climate change. It is also an opportunity to revisit and address other longstanding problems, including gender inequality, deforestation, MULTI-DIMENSIONAL CARBON VULNERABILITY: MODERATE unsustainable fi shing, and barriers that limit better use of technologies to drive social and economic activities and enhance resilience. Together with the affected communities, solutions can be found to the current challenges CAPACITY: RESTRICTED Ghana faces. The average temperature in Ghana has risen by around 1 degree centigrade (1.8° Fahrenheit) since the period from the 1970s to the 2000s. Should Ghana warm by another 3°C (5.5°F) in the 50–60 years to come, the human, economic, and environmental damage will be severe. POPULATION 2010/2030: 24/32 MILLION What happens beyond the next few decades is now in the hands of national policymakers in the world’s major economies. Ghana could harness its successes to date by tackling climate change risks GDP 2010/2030 (PPP): 65 BILLION/210 BILLION USD concertedly, and in doing so, not only improve the resistance of its own economy to these effects, but also serve as an inspiration in the coming decades to other countries in the region, which all face similar problems. GDP PER CAPITA 2010/2030 (PPP): 2,650/6,500 USD 208 I COUNTRY STUDIES

BACKGROUND AND CONTEXT THE MONITOR'S ASSESSMENT OVERVIEW / CLIMATE CHANGE

and Moran, 2008). Nevertheless, risks—much of Accra was fl ooded in GDP losses, from highest to lowest: BACKGROUND AND CONTEXT continued national economic growth 2011, causing signifi cant loss of life. r

LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY, ACUTE/ACUTE With close to 25 million inhabitants, is well assured in the medium term. In rural areas, subsistence farming is 3.0%/6.1% of GDP Ghana is a mid-sized and rapidly But whether or not Ghana’s climate still widespread, and a lack of basic r

FISHERIES, HIGH/ACUTE growing West African country. Now change policies are effective will be agricultural inputs and infrastructure, 0.3%/1.1% of GDP considered a middle-income country increasingly important in determining such as irrigation, roads and storage r

AGRICULTURE, SEVERE/ACUTE (lower-middle income) by the World the extent and distribution of this facilities make this group less 0.4%/0.7% of GDP Bank, Ghana is bordered to the north growth, and the sustainability of its adaptive to changes in climate. r

SEA-LEVEL RISE, MODERATE/MODERATE by Burkina Faso and to the east economic development as currently 0.3%/0.4% of GDP and west by Togo and Côte d’Ivoire, programmed. r
BIODIVERSITY, MODERATE/HIGH respectively. Ghana’s climate is GHG emissions remain very low at 3.2 0.1%/0.2% of GDP tropical monsoon, with relatively tons per capita and are not expected THE MONITOR’S ASSESSMENT The most serious health effects are low-elevation geography, and clear to even exceed 3.5 tons per capita OVERVIEW Diarrheal Infections, Hunger, Heat regional differences in climate by 2020 (Climate Analytics, 2012). Despite its relatively strong economic and Cold Illnesses and Meningitis. between the savannah (northern Deforestation is at very high rates and position in West Africa, Ghana is Heat and Cold Illnesses relate to and east coast) and more humid currently represents over 40% of total among the countries most vulnerable the impact of heat waves on chronic southwestern forested areas along the emissions; a little more than a decade to climate change. According to disease sufferers, particularly the Gulf of Guinea. Ghana is similar in size ago, the forestry sector was acting the Monitor, Ghana’s economic elderly. While mortality rates are not to the United Kingdom. as a net carbon sink, not an emitter development will have already been alarmingly high, more than 1 million Ghana’s real GDP grew at an average (EPA-Ghana, 2011). Urban air pollution signifi cantly compromised due to people are estimated to be affected of 6% in the fi rst decade of the 21st is beginning to become more serious, changes in the climate that have on average each year, due to the century and continues with growth but household fuels are a much greater already taken place. impact of climate change on diarrheal for 2012 estimated by the IMF at health concern, since indoor fi rewood The multi-dimensional vulnerability of diseases, and over 400,000 people almost 9% (IMF WEO, 2012). Ghana’s stoves are still widely in use. Moreover, Ghana to climate change is considered suffer from hunger. per capita income is still very low, 40% of all homes lack access to in the highest category of Acute, The impacts for Labour and Sea-Level at around 3,000 dollars (PPP) or electricity. with vulnerability steadily increasing rise carry a relatively high degree of 1,700 US dollars (nominal). Income As is the case for many countries in as global and local temperatures certainty, while other areas are more of inequality is also high, with nearly half close proximity to the equator, the rise. Ghana’s vulnerability to carbon an indication, due to the limitations of the urban population living in slums environmental vulnerability of Ghana impacts is considered Moderate and the models used and agreement on the (UN-HABITAT, 2012). Ghana is not is extreme. Ghana is exposed to is actually declining, due mainly to signal of key changes, such as rainfall. considered a Least Developed Country fi sheries impacts, due to rising water the expectation that agriculture might Other areas of high vulnerability by the United Nations but its capacity temperatures and coastal erosion benefi t from carbon fertilization as constituting serious concerns for is considered to be Intermediary, caused by the rising sea level; in CO2 levels rise, and because economic affected communities include due to comparatively limited human the north, the increase in heat is development should lead households Desertifi cation (High) and Drought and infrastructure assets, and occurring in a continental climate to adopt less hazardous cooking and (High), although these are not as despite relatively strong government not restrained by the proximity of the heating practices over time. signifi cant in economic terms on effectiveness. The climate-sensitive sea. These effects are compounded Both human (Severe) and economic a national level. Desertifi cation is agricultural sector still represents by fl oods, drought, wildfi res, land (Acute) vulnerability are very high. nevertheless estimated to already be around 30% of GDP and employs degradation, soil erosion, the threat Climate change is estimated to claim affecting 75,000 people in Ghana, nearly 60% of the workforce. of desertifi cation, and the prevalence around 2,000 lives each year in 2010, which could rise to 200,000 people Ghana recently discovered large-scale of diseases, such as cholera and while carbon-related mortality is at at risk by the year 2030. By 2030, new offshore oil and gas reserves, meningitis. Major cash and staple 13,000 deaths per year; each impact drought could cause 15 million dollars which are expected to boost national crops, such cocoa and maize will is expected to decline slightly by 2030 of damage on average each year income further in the coming years. be affected in growing measure by as a share of overall population, due to farmers, especially small-scale Ghana also produces large amounts climatic shifts, including increased to anticipated socio-economic gains and subsistence farmers with low- of cash-yielding cocoa and gold that temperature, the contraction of between now and then. Losses due to resilience to these impacts. are mainstays of its economy. Heavy cropping seasons and changes in the climate change are estimated at 4% Floods and Landslides have been reliance on one type of crop may, distribution of rainfall. of GDP in 2010, rising to 9% of GDP assessed as a Moderate concern; however, represent a serious latent In both urban and rural communities, in 2030. Carbon losses are stable at however, fi eld research demonstrated but systemic climate risk for Ghana’s socio-economic vulnerabilities approximately 1.5% of GDP. that fl ooding is a major and growing agricultural sector, were climate are also extreme. Cities such as concern in both urban and rural change to make plant diseases Accra have sprawling slums which CLIMATE CHANGE areas. For instance, recent large-scale and pests more prevalent in the form hazard-prone zones, exposing Following are the most serious climate fl oods in October 2011 inundated humid southern zone where much populations to unsafe water, change impact areas as assessed (for large parts of downtown Accra, of the cocoa is grown (Brondizio restricted sanitation, and deadly fl ood 2010/2030) in order of the scale of reportedly killing 14 in the greater GHANA I 209

CARBON ECONOMY NATIONAL RESPONSE CLIMATE FINANCE STATUS

Accra region and 33 nationwide, fertilization. The very latest research and into the Ghana Shared Growth and of government, international, and according to Ghana’s National Disaster is nevertheless more pessimistic Development Agenda. In this spirit, local non-governmental organizations Management Organization (NADMO). than the Monitor’s assessment on an active consultation process is now and foreign assistance partners in The international disaster database the possible extent of such benefits underway aiming to develop a National many climate change related areas records 300 deaths due to floods for (Ainsworth et al., 2008; Leaky et al., Climate Change Policy. The National of concern, from coastal defences, the whole of the last two decades since 2009). This result should therefore Policy has three core objectives: 1) to food security, and health and 1990, not including the 2011 floods be treated with much caution. Field effective adaptation to climate change, sanitation issues. (CRED/EM-DAT, 2012). research undertaken for the purpose 2) social development, and 3) low The only positive effect Ghana is of the Monitor in Ghana identified key carbon growth. The government has CLIMATE FINANCE estimated to experience on the basis agricultural regions already suffering also identified the following seven In 2010, Ghana received close to 80 of the Monitor’s assessment is a less severe stress and fundamental pillars which it is planning to build upon million US dollars in public climate than 0.1% of GDP boost to Hydro challenges relating to climate-tied in order to achieve those objectives: change finance from foreign sources, Energy, as a result of small, although shifts carrying serious humanitarian r

(PWFSOBODF
BOE
DPPSEJOBUJPO making Ghana the 31st largest uncertain, increases in annual river ramifications, including hunger and r

$BQBDJUZ
CVJMEJOH recipient that year among developing flow that are projected by some models other diseases. Local research has r

3FTFBSDI
BOE
LOPXMFEHF
NBOBHFNFOU countries. This amount represented for this region of the world. Wildfires also documented the climate-related r

'JOBODF 0.25% of Ghana’s GDP— compare this are a legitimate concern in Ghana and challenges facing core staple crops, r

*OUFSOBUJPOBM
DPPQFSBUJPO to the amount received by Vietnam increased aridity and drought in certain such as cocoa and corn (Tachie-Obeng r

&EVDBUJPO
DPNNVOJDBUJPO
(also studied in this report), which areas will increase the likelihood of et al., 2011). Carbon fertilization and public awareness represented 0.5% of Vietnamese fires. However, since Ghana is projected benefits are known not to accrue under r

.POJUPSJOH
BOE
SFQPSUJOH GDP in 2010. The largest bilateral to experience some increased rainfall, stressed conditions (IPCC, 2007). There exists a National Climate donors of climate change finance in the final outcome of the role of climate Nonetheless, improving the resilience Change Committee grouping some 2010 were Japan and France, which change on wildfires is ambiguous, so of Ghana’s agricultural sector to 14 government entities together with provided more loans for mitigation vulnerability is assessed as Low. climate change would certainly development partners, including finance and only grants for adaptation. increase its chances of benefitting foreign assistance donors. It has been The component of those resources CARBON ECONOMY from any possible positive effects mandated to drive the climate change targeted to assist Ghana in adapting

With respect to carbon economy costs, of high CO2 levels, if they are ever to policy development work forward and is to the negative effects of climate in human terms Indoor Smoke claims materialize; either way, adaptation to hosted by the Ministry of Environment, change made up only about 10% of an estimated 10,000 lives each year climate change remains a core priority. Science and Technology. A National the total, or 10 million dollars. An today, followed by over 2,000 deaths The health related impacts of Indoor Adaptation Strategy for Ghana has been order of magnitude increase in climate associated with urban air pollution. Smoke and Air Pollution are considered completed following a detailed process change finance for adaptation in Air Pollution deaths are expected to relatively reliable, whereas Biodiversity of stakeholder inputs from multiple Ghana would be needed, if a balance grow as a share of population to close and Agriculture should be considered sectors, with the launch scheduled to with respect to mitigation were to be to 4,000 deaths per year in 2030. more indicative or less certain. take place before the end of 2012. achieved. Even such levels would likely However, Indoor Smoke is expected to While the policy process is moving fall far short of the actual requirement, decline to around 8,000 deaths per in a very promising direction, Ghana considering the estimate that climate year by that time. still lacks government policies change already costs Ghana 4% of In economic terms, the largest carbon NATIONAL RESPONSE specifically designed for responding its GDP. impact is to Biodiversity at 1% of STATUS to climate change. In particular, at the Deserving of high praise are Ghana’s GDP in 2010, growing to 2% of GDP Policy development on climate community level, district development development successes in high rates by 2030. Health impacts are the change in Ghana is a new and plans viewed did not account for of real GDP growth and the progress next biggest loss to GDP at 0.8% of rapidly advancing focus of energy the additional stress resulting from achieved towards the Millennium GDP, declining to 0.4% of GDP by for key government departments climate change, nor did such plans Development Goals to-date. There 2030. The agricultural sector is still with competencies relating to the contain climate change specific is, however, a risk that foreign generally unaffected by pollution, but environment and disaster issues. The response considerations, whether to development partner donors view could benefit from higher CO2 levels, government has recognized climate reduce carbon intensity or to address those achievements and the discovery in which case gains are estimated at change as a current concern for the climate impacts. Nevertheless, several of important fossil fuel reserves as 0.1% of GDP in 2010 and 0.8% of GDP country’s economic output. It is viewed government entities are dealing with reasons for withdrawing international in 2030. Thus, any current benefits as a development challenge requiring climate change issues as a part of support. The research team which of CO2 fertilization are outweighed action to address climate change so their operational mandates and daily visited various regions in connection three times over by costs related to as to ensure that national progress concerns, such as the Environmental with this project found that, in certain climate change. By 2030, scientists is not derailed. This is at the core Protection Agency-Ghana (EPA-Ghana) cases, foreign assistance programmes predict that all of the future impacts of of ambitions to mainstream climate and the National Disaster Management were already being withdrawn climate change will be compensated by change into key planning processes at Organization (NADMO). And there was from some of the most vulnerable increases in plant growth due to CO2 national, regional and district levels, evidence of active work on the part communities. Climate change impacts 210 I COUNTRY STUDIES

ASSETS GAPS

are now expected to accelerate very stable with relatively low levels of is benefitting from the attention for the government. A key step to quickly, putting the development public debt and surging economic and knowledge as a part of the mobilizing enhanced international gains of Ghana at greater risk, in growth. There are significant and consultative process leading towards support for Ghana’s domestic climate particular where last-mile efforts to important infrastructure investments the National Climate Change Policy change policies is for the government empower the poorest of the poor have that Ghana will be making over the next and should continue to promote that to be unambiguous regarding the not succeeded. Ghana’s forthcoming 5 to 10 years as it reinvests its growing interest, which will likely pay dividends importance of the climate policy National Adaptation Strategy should wealth back into the economy. Ghana in terms of fine-tuned policies and project for Ghana when interacting provide a vehicle for donors to ensure has yet to commit streams of public more robust implementation. with foreign assistance partners. that adequate support is provided funds to a formal climate change r

Fragmentation: Experts also to the country as it seeks to address policy, but should consider allocating GAPS expressed concern over the potential these serious and growing concerns. some specific levels of resources to its Ghana still lacks a dedicated climate fragmentation of national efforts to own domestic climate change policies change policy and never issued a address climate change, as wide- ASSETS while the economy is strong. National Adaptation Programme for ranging initiatives were being pursued Ghana faces a number of capacity r

Health Insurance: In all communities Action under the UNFCCC since it is in different directions. Fragmentation constraints that are commonplace visited as a part of the field research not a Least Developed Country. So risks exhausting precious capacities, for lower-middle income countries in for the Monitor, participation rates policy gaps are large for now, but will especially in central government, and sub-Saharan Africa. But Ghana also in local health insurance schemes progressively be filled, as different favouring project-based pathways over has a number of important assets at its were very high, with annual fees very aspects of the government’s policy strategic approaches more capable of disposal as it gears up to tackle climate affordable, in some cases as little project come online. Some gaps in the tackling systemic issues. change locally: as 5 US dollars (10 Ghanain Cedis). general policy approach can still be r

Reference Scenarios: Ghana plans to r
Community Reach: With the National Health insurance did not, however, identified, and should be reinforced: publish national reference scenarios for Disaster Management Organization cover preventative measures, such r

Leadership: As evident from the more climate change as part of its National (NADMO), Ghana has centrally as insect-repellent infused mosquito than one dozen government entities Adaptation Strategy. But to date, it organized government officials or nets or vaccinations. Therefore, already participating in Ghana’s has lacked truly comprehensive and trained volunteers on the ground in preventative measures remain a National Climate Change Committee, highly specific reference scenarios for every district, if not every village. challenge for communities themselves, the challenge of coordinating and all key regions of the country across NADMO volunteers are mobilized the government and foreign aid ensuring sound implementation all main climate parameters, including and actively working to respond to programmes. of cross-sector challenges is river flow, rainfall/runoff, temperature, and reduce risks for communities r
Indigenous Knowledge: The long immense. The government has sea-level rise, sea temperatures dealing with climate change and cultural history and traditions of the already recognized the need for a and acidity, wind, fire risk, flooding, other threats to safety and livelihoods people of Ghana represents a great dedicated statutory body on climate and drought/extreme aridity. For and their responsibilities include wealth of indigenous knowledge change to oversee the government example, scenarios for rainfall cited advocacy and emergency assistance. relating to the environment. As climate response, enhancing coordination in the most recent UNFCCC National Given appropriate strategies and change brings rapid change to that and avoiding duplication. However, Communication are at odds with the resources, the NADMO apparatus environment, much of this knowledge executive leadership on climate analyses of some other leading experts, will be invaluable for ensuring that is not only not obsolete, but has change has been largely absent and which point to increases not decreases community-level actions are carried become more important and useful. does not appear to be a planned in rain, although seasonal, not annual, out among the most vulnerable In one region for instance, crickets, component of a climate change declines of rainfall may be extreme, groups. still announced the end of the warm body for Ghana. Ghana might do including during growing periods r Technical Capacity: the Environmental season, even when the timing of the well to take a cue from successful (EPA-Ghana, 2011; McSweeney et al., Protection Agency-Ghana (EPA-Ghana), season had shifted considerably. national policy approaches of other 2012; Tachie-Obeng et al., 2011). The the lead institution for UNFCCC-related Documenting and disseminating the vulnerable countries, such as the regular updating and publication of new activities, has been establishing best of indigenous knowledge to Philippines or Vietnam, where there is national reference scenarios is critical important foundations of local supplement highly technical or costly direct involvement of the government for guiding the progressive calibration of expertise on core climate-related infrastructure responses to climate executive branch, which issues formal adaptation investments as knowledge concerns, as it serves as the main change would help to lower costs and policy directives to all other relevant evolves. Establishing scenarios Country Implementation Institution improve impact. organs of government. through wide consultation that all key for the technical coordination of r

Sound Policy Environment: From r
Prioritization: The research undertaken stakeholders can have confidence in, activities on climate change, including the capital in Accra to the remote for the Monitor revealed that the despite intrinsic uncertainties, is an specialized working groups and villages of northern Ghana, community government of Ghana has yet to flag important component in building strong expert climate change study teams, leaders, NGOs, entrepreneurs, climate change as a key priority area support for the national response to all of which support national policy farmers, experts, and other members in its formal discussions with leading climate change. development and the implementation of civil society consistently expressed development partner donors. As such, r

Donor Support Group: There is no of climate change project activities. deep concern and interest in climate- several donors had the impression formal group involving a wide range of r

Fiscal Resilience: Ghana is financially related issues. The government that climate change is not a priority key foreign donors that is operationally GHANA I 211

OTHER CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES

focused on supporting Ghana to wealth of solar energy that is not being month for whatever reason, the develop and implement climate harnessed anywhere. Programmes children would go hungry. The situation change policies. Best practice from aimed at distributing efficient and is fuelling the rapid urbanization of other country experiences such as clean-burning indoor cooking stoves Ghana’s metropolitan centres, were Vietnam point to the clear value of a would not only reduce disease, but slums have been steadily growing, donor support group that could add also help stem deforestation, land with settlements often developing to the policy implementation efforts degradation, and desertification, since in marginal or high-hazard zones, of Ghana on climate change and help communities rely heavily on local wood such as river flood plains, creating to harmonize aid, avoid overlap and as the primary fuel. Making the most additional risks. It is difficult to drains on capacity, track progress of new opportunities in the renewable attribute a specific proportion of and results, and ensure that financial energy sector was a major theme that migration to climate change. commitments match government expressed in interactions with experts However, the change in climate has defined priorities and needs as during the research work undertaken had a negative affect on agriculture effectively as possible. as a part of the Monitor’s development. and fisheries—which determine income Ghana has yet to gain meaningful levels—and stifles economic activity in OTHER CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES access to international carbon markets mainstay rural sectors. The heat, the r
Access to Markets and Industry: All and to the support mechanisms that extreme and erratic nature of rainfall, rural areas visited by the research drive renewable sector growth in other the rise in sea-levels, the stress on team had in common a near total developing countries. With only one biodiversity and forests, are all set to absence of any local light industry project registered with the CDM and a increase dramatically in the decades operations aimed at processing handful of others under development, ahead. With it, migration pressures and packaging the raw products of virtually no investment has yet been will only increase considerably. farmers and fishermen into finished leveraged (UNEP Risoe, 2012). Making r

Women’s and Youth Empowerment: goods that could be transported to the most of a potential future forest Ghana is known to have low levels reach non-domestic markets. This led carbon market (via REDD+) would help of gender-related development or to the paradox of purchasing boxed reverse the rampant deforestation high degrees of gender inequality South African mango juice from a food that caused Ghana’s forestry sector that disadvantage women (UNDP, stall to be consumed under a fully to transition from a net carbon sink 2007; UNDP, 2011). The research laden local mango tree. In the Gulf to a major source of GHG emissions undertaken as a part of the Monitor’s of Guinea, fishing boats from China, since only the late 1990s (EPA-Ghana, development highlighted the extent to Japan and Korea plied the waters and 2011). Public and private sector which women are currently marginalized sent back home the fruits of Ghanaian capacity building would need to be from decision making on community seas. Tragic outcomes also resulted: actively fostered in order to break issues at multiple levels. Many of an unusual bumper crop of tomatoes through and stimulate serious progress the men interviewed as a part of the that was left to spoil on the road led for Ghana’s renewable energy and research conducted autonomously some farmers to commit suicide when carbon sink sector. suggested that greater involvement of they realized that their superb crop r

Migration: Hallmarks of a long-term women would lead to more sensible was unable to reach any market. Yet rural decline whereby traditional decision making and community none of the communities visited had livelihoods faced ongoing erosion were action; it was emphasized that women development plans in place to give evident in many of the communities are more receptive to change. The incentives to local entrepreneurs or to studied for this edition of the Monitor. same issues were understood to also attract investment to set-up freezing Seeing limited opportunities for apply to youth. Gender development works for seafood, canning facilities themselves, young adults were and inequality in particular are for tomatoes, packaging houses for migrating on a seasonal basis to highly correlated to climate change fruit juice, or any other light industrial the larger centres, where they seek vulnerability according to the Monitor’s facilities that would enable farmers to informal employment. Men or couples assessment; this suggests that gains achieve higher prices for their goods, whose livelihoods in agriculture or across the full spectrum of gender- receive more from the commercial fishing have been compromised were related development would reduce value chain, and ultimately increase also moving on a more permanent levels of vulnerability to climate change, profits and disposable income. basis, sometimes leaving children since women are understood to be r
Energy and Carbon Markets: The behind in the care of elderly relatives more vulnerable to climate change abundant heat and sunshine that or single mothers; these “stranded” in Ghana (EPA-Ghana, 2011). The is now a concern for Ghana as homes were reported to be particularly advent of climate change therefore only temperatures continue to rise, food insecure and vulnerable: if a strengthens the urgency of overcoming underscores the existence of a latent remittance did not come in a given gender equality challenges in Ghana. 212 I COUNTRY STUDIES NORTHERN GHANA: BOLGATANGA-BONGO-NAVRONGO

The Bolgatanga-Bongo-Navrongo areas or fans virtually anywhere, too few but most local experts stressed that of the Upper East Region of northern mosquito nets, very few vehicles, and education was needed. People were Ghana is close to the border with no insurance for houses damaged by apparently unaware of the importance Burkina Faso. It is a primary agricultural flooding and wind or for crops destroyed of basic safety precautions in everyday region, raising livestock and cultivating in drought or floods. life, such as personal hygiene, proper staples such as rice and millet, market waste disposal, or the need to avoid vegetables, and orchard trees. About being exposed out of doors at dusk one million people inhabit the upper HEALTH and dawn when mosquitos are most east region of Ghana, which covers With a significant share of the active. Investment in education some 9,000km2. Northern Ghana is population living without electricity, campaigns and schools is therefore a the hottest part of the country, where refrigeration, running water, or priority. Ensuring access to clean water the so-called “Harmattan” winds blow sanitation facilities, the deleterious for households was also understood in from the Sahara desert, and where effects of climate change on health are to make a significant difference, as the increase in heat and the number a major concern. High rates of all of the is clear from current international of hot days and hot nights has been main climate sensitive diseases were knowledge on the issue (Jamison et al. the most extreme. The relentless rise confirmed: diarrheal diseases such as (eds.), 2006). in temperature in the years ahead will meningitis, cholera, and malaria. In also continue to be the most extreme some areas, a majority of households here (McSweeney et al., 2012). were considered food insecure. People SEASON SHIFT The serious increase in heat the area is living without any form of climate A clear erosion of the agricultural experiencing has triggered a downward control would often sleep outside on system in the Bolgatanga area was trend in its core economic sector, the hottest nights and in doing so reported and manifest. Local experts agriculture, with negative impacts on expose themselves to mosquito bites reported that key causes of this erosion the health of the region’s population. and vector-borne disease, especially have been the growing length of the Key concerns range from extreme malaria, compounding the climate hot dry season—traditionally from flooding, drought, desertification, stresses on their health. One local November to April—and the contraction growing energy needs for cooling, and expert explained that people often of the traditional rainy season—April a declining biodiversity. Concerns were suffered malaria two or three times through October. Although farming is also voiced about the nomadic Fulani a year. Certain villages were able to done in both seasons, the rainy season herdsmen, who cross from Burkina report on the number of deaths due is the mainstay of the harvest. In the Faso and are indiscriminately cutting to meningitis over the preceding few dry season, it is only possible to grow and burning the savannah vegetation weeks—accounting for more than crops where there is irrigation, while and causing other social issues, as 10 fatalities in one village alone. In in the wet season, much of the land their bonds with local farmers are another village, the funeral procession is available for cultivation. Thus, the increasingly severed along with rural of a victim made its way past the contraction of the growing season decline. Occupational heat stress is research team’s interview site. lowers overall agricultural potential. also endemic, since large numbers of While health insurance is now Rains that reportedly once began in subsistence farmers, anxious to feed high—reported to be around 80% April are now not beginning until May. their families and unable to work in the coverage—vaccinations against The new timing has a number of other relative cool of the night, are obliged to communicable diseases common consequences: one example provided work during the intense heat of the day. in the area are not covered by the was that butterflies have been slower All of these effects have serious social insurance schemes, even though to adapt their behaviour to the new and economic implications: the rapid some vaccination campaigns were season onset and caterpillar larvae now pace of development that Ghana also reported to be in effect. School exit the cocoon when crops are at their has experienced in other regions has feeding programmes were in place in most vulnerable early stages. not been enjoyed by this part of the many areas, with the local government country: every one of the dozens of and international NGOs such as the people interviewed in different villages World Food Programme responsible DROUGHT AND DRY SEASON HEAT and centres across this region insisted for providing one meal per day. Hunger The dry season itself is now unbearably that life had become much harder. deaths were understood to occur hot and even dangerous: people Social vulnerabilities were also extreme: in remote areas or where children exposed outside in the heat are no running water or sanitation facilities were not able to attend school, and considerably more susceptible to of any kind in many households, significantly low school attendance deadly meningitis. It is more difficult less than 50% of households with rates were confirmed. To prevent for farmers to produce crops in the dry electricity or lighting, no cooling units malaria, more bed nets were needed, season, if only because of the extreme GHANA I 213

levels of heat stress as they toil in the Faso (Fulani herdsmen) with their be taken to stem and reverse the fields. Moreover, periods of drought livestock in return for payment, either steady erosion of rural livelihoods FLOODING AND THE BAGRÉ DAM are now very severe, since the heat in-kind or in the form of farm produce. in Bolgatanga. Some promising Evidence of excess rainfall is seen in is so much more intense, and crop Thus, the nomadic peoples have programmes were ongoing in the the visible flood damage sustained productivity suffers whenever the heat also been deprived of a source of promotion of Bolgatanga basket to earthen buildings and is clearly is not offset by generous and evenly income and livelihood, and are now weaving to generate improved documented with photographic spread rainfall, reported to be rarely being reported to be engaging in a livelihood opportunities, especially evidence shown to the research team. the case anymore. Rainfall in Ghana growing number of criminal acts, such during the relative downtime of the One major issue is the release of water reached its lowest in the 1970s and as theft, violence, and other social dry season. Bolgatanga baskets are a following heavy rains from the Bagré early 1980s; although it has since problems, not to mention destroying unique, indigenous handcraft woven by Dam in southern Burkina Faso; the increased from 2000, it is still below and burning savannah vegetation. The hand exclusively by women. The activity area around the dam has experienced the 1960 baseline. But it is not keeping decline in livestock has also decreased allows local women to earn respectable increasing rainfall in recent years pace with the increase in temperature the availability of local manure and incomes, with immediate benefits (ICI, 2010). When the floodgates are and so the evaporation rate of water therefore fertilizer, forcing farmers to for the promotion of maternal and opened, large areas of the plains in for the region is increasing. As a result, rely more heavily on imported chemical child health for participating families. northern Ghana become inundated rainfed agriculture is undergoing a fertilizers, the price of which has been Handicraft activities, from basket with water. The local community is transition away from optimal growing escalating in recent years, together weaving to leather goods and pottery, defenceless as the water floods across conditions, resulting in lower plant with the increase in gasoline prices. help to diversify the livelihoods and the plains, unable to penetrate the productivity and yield, while reservoirs Finally, the chemical fertilizers available supplement subsistence farming, now densely packed, arid soil. Aside from that supply irrigation are becoming less were said to be less effective for water increasingly at risk because of climate damaging buildings, water that remains efficient. Thus, most people migrate to retention than organic alternatives, so change. for several days destroys any crops southern Ghana during the dry season. of declining utility as heat and water Enabling the farmers to produce more that are submerged and increases the stress grew. crops during the dry season would risk of malaria by greatly expanding the also make a significant difference. breeding ground for mosquitoes. EROSION OF LIVELIHOODS There is enough rain over a year to Local experts suggested the problem To cope with declining yields, farmers RESPONSES ensure wider irrigation, but there were could be addressed by building have begun to take measures, such Although heat is, indeed, rising and either not enough dams or reservoirs better drainage infrastructure, in as selling their livestock. Farmers who will continue to do so, the area is trapping the rain, or too many of combination with the construction or might have had five or six animals, not condemned and could thrive. As these had silted up and become rehabilitation of feeder roads—small might now have only one or two—others mentioned earlier, the critical need is ineffective. Overhauling and building roads that are a sound investment none at all—and may be worried to prioritize local entrepreneurship, new dams is far beyond the means under any circumstances (Stifel et al., about how they will cope with another so that farmers can have better of local farmers and even the local 2012; Kingombe, 2011). Ensuring that difficult season. Such measures hardly access to wider markets and higher government. International support can waterways are not used for cropping, constitute a sound long-term strategy, prices for their goods. In reality, there be extremely useful here—there are but for the planting of trees to reinforce since the hope for a return to bountiful has actually been only one tomato already some support programmes for embankments was another solution put harvests of days gone by is unlikely, factory in the region, which apparently dam rehabilitation, and these provide forward. However, with declining fertility given the projections for climate suffered from management problems. jobs during construction and beyond, and scope for planting crops elsewhere, change to come. Residents recalled The skills required to oversee such representing a sustainable solution for the fertile embankments with direct times in the past when Bolgatanga operations are not yet present in the community. The same was true for access to water are too attractive for area was once the breadbasket of the region, so people from outside less costly water wells, although it was farmers. Cooperation with Burkina Ghana. It is in this dead-end context have been brought in to run this type not reported whether the pumping more Faso on infrastructure solutions that that farmers were reported to have of industry. However, farmers were water from the groundwater aquifer might help to release water gradually committed suicide, when their unusual not guaranteed better prices, as the was sustainable or not. However, many following heavy rains had apparently bumper crop of tomatoes spoiled on factory exercised a monopoly and did report that wells had dried up. not been addressed. the roadside for want of buyers. would pay only low prices, despite Enlarging and linking an existing set being able to sell goods at much higher of wilderness reserves already under These developments have upset rates. Moreover, most farmers have conservation protection could help to the delicate balance of these rural no means to transport their goods strengthen biodiversity, with benefits communities. Since farmers now own to the factory. These problems could for natural pest control, as well as less livestock, the relationship between be solved by following the successful water catchment. Local composting farmers and nomadic people who models of other communities which using on-site crop waste close to fields, settle in the less fertile surrounding have already surmounted similar and household food waste in vegetable areas has also been compromised. issues (Motiram and Vakulabharanam, gardens closer to houses, could help to In the past, farmers would entrust 2007; Buse et al., 2008). offset the decrease in local fertilizer. the nomadic peoples from Burkina A range of other responses could 214 I COUNTRY STUDIES

EAST COAST: VOLTA DELTA

The east coast lies at the southeast kilometres” of land lost to the sea hydroelectric dam built in the 1960s, to accelerate land subsidence and extremity of Ghana, close to the border in certain places around the Volta which withholds vital sediments perceived sea-level rise (Larson et al., with Togo along the Gulf of Guinea. Delta, where sea defences have not that would otherwise be released 2001). Similar irrigation techniques The researchers visited villages across been put in place. The agricultural into the delta from the Volta River; were also common in the Mekong delta the Greater Accra and Volta regions of sector has been affected both by the sediment to the littoral delta has been of Vietnam, also highly vulnerable to Ghana, as well as Prampram, Ada Foah, heat and by salt intrusion and land reduced by 10 times according to sea-level rise and studied in this report. and Keta. While the south of Ghana is erosion due to sea-level rise, although some estimates (Boateng, 2009). The In the context of all these varied and less hot and more humid than the far large areas of land are irrigated by erosion processes may have doubled significant concerns, sea-level rise north, the southeast coast itself has a the Volta River and are more resilient since the building of the dam (Ly, resulting from climate change is a very dry climate within the coastal savannah to the growing heat. In health terms, 1980). Given that water flow is now unwelcome new consideration for a zone of Ghana, which, according malaria was still a common health controlled, the natural flooding patterns community highly vulnerable and already to EPA-Ghana, is due to “coastal problem for residents of the area, and of the area have also changed and having great difficulty coping with local alignment and upwelling of cold water” malnutrition was raised as a serious the flood plains now rely on irrigation coastal erosion. A series of large-scale (EPA-Ghana, 2011). Not that it is concern. Diarrheal diseases were and a reduced water supply (Corcoran coastal defences have already been cold here: truck drivers complained apparently less prevalent than was et al., 2007). The hydro dam in itself built, and local experts have emphasized of more frequent tire and windshield the case for northern Ghana, since is a positive response to the causes the sensible preference of “soft” explosions on the hottest days. Parents it was understood that plumbed/ of climate change as a renewable approaches, such as re-vegetation of worried that teachers were becoming improved water sources and sanitation energy generator, but it also presents sand dunes or beach nourishment, over less effective in educating their or latrines were more common in the a unique dilemma here because the “hard” infrastructure coastal defence children, as they struggled to work in coastal Volta area. dam exacerbates the consequences of options (Oteng-Abbabio et al., 2011). the growing heat during school hours. climate change, in particular, sea-level Little information was obtainable The area is mainly a low-lying plain, COASTAL EROSION rise erosion. about the feasibility of sediment interspersed with a number of lagoons Other important concerns highlighted pass-through retrofits to the Volta/ and tributaries at the delta of the AND SEA-LEVEL RISE include the practice of sand mining Akosombo hydroelectric dam, although Volta River, which originates in Burkina Analysis of Ghana’s coastline shows and the construction of coastal retrofitting options are available and Faso. It is predominantly a fishing and that over the last few decades the infrastructure and sea-defences would merit further investigation and agrarian community, and the area eastern coast has eroded at the fastest (Oteng-Abbabio et al., 2011; investment given the scale of impact visited is home to over half a million rate. Rates of annual erosion have been Appeaning Addo and Larbi, 2009). manifested (IPCC, 2012b). However, people (Ghana SS, 2010). estimated in the range of 1-11 metres Sand removed from the shorefront clearly the re-establishment of coastal The chief climate change concerns per year of land (Ly, 1980; Wiafe 2010; obviously accelerates erosion, while the mangrove forests and providing for the southeast coastal areas relate Appeaning Addo et al., 2011). Coastal construction of coastal infrastructure alternatives to ground-water pumping to coastal erosion/sea-level rise, erosion in the area has been noticeable affects sea-wave dynamics and for irrigation would be less expensive fisheries, agriculture and health. for over a century, suggesting some concentrates energy on adjacent than infrastructure-intensive solutions; Biodiversity, drought, energy for degree of natural oscillations in unprotected areas. Even if the entire for example, one single coastal defence cooling and water are also concerns. delta growth and loss (Akyeampong, Ghanaian coast were protected, Togo construction near Keta cost 90 million As for much of the country, labour 2001; Oteng-Abbabio et al., 2011). In and Côte d’Ivoire on either side would US dollars (Armah, 2005). “Soft” productivity and occupational heat addition to claiming land and damaging be more exposed, since it is hard to approaches are also likely to cause stress are also important issues, coastal infrastructure, the erosion is imagine the possibility of protecting less, if any, collateral damage. There and concerns over migration were also affecting water resources and soil the entire Gulf of Guinea coastline. appeared to be few mechanisms in additionally flagged by local experts, quality from the penetration of salt Residents and officials in Keta were place to compensate households that who emphasized a constant drain from the sea as it seeps further inland. insistent that the construction of the lost property and needed to relocate or of men and families out of the area. It has forced the relocation of residents major seaport at nearby Tema during who are subject to damage. If the sea Fisheries are in long-term decline who have abandoned their homes and the early 1960s changed the velocity level rises one or two metres during the in the area for a variety of reasons, properties along the coast and moved and energy pattern of the waves, 21st century—assuming that climate including over-fishing, but research inland. Risks are particularly high further accelerating coastal erosion. A change is not sufficiently brought under provides strong evidence for the during elevated seasonal tides or storm port further distant, on the border of control—the whole situation threatens to negative impact on marine ecosystems tides that can inundate tracts of land Togo, was also a source of concern. become quite dire (IPCC, 2007; RSNZ, of both rising sea temperatures and and severely damage infrastructure, Clearing and degradation of littoral 2010; Füssel in Edenhofer et al., 2012). ocean acidity. The Gulf of Guinea is livelihoods, and endanger lives. mangrove forests has made matters understood to be one of the zones Sea-level rise due to climate change even worse. Finally, the local practice worst hit by rising temperatures is a significant cause of concern in the of pumping out groundwater via “tube FISHERIES (Cheung et al., 2010). Coastal coastal erosion of Ghana. However, irrigation” was very common, even Local observations of the rise in sea erosion in the area has a long history, research has highlighted several other for fields close to the water’s edge. temperatures and some indications of with dramatic rates of degradation important issues. These include the In other parts of the world, irrigation decline in local marine life match global and residents asserting “several construction of the Volta/Akosombo using ground-water has been shown assessments (Wiafe et al., 2008). The GHANA I 215

CLIMATE 2010 2030 CARBON 2010 2030 Contraction of biological zones (km2) - yearly average -3,000 -6,000 Volume of water to treat (millions m3) - yearly avereage 250 350 Additional land degraded due to climate change (km2) - yearly average 750 1.500 Additional/reduced energy load due to climate change (GWh) - yearly average 350 900

Additional CO2 generated/reduced for heating and cooling due to climate change (kt CO2) - yearly average 60 150 Share of workforce particularly affected by climate change (%) - yearly average 55% 45% Additional land lost due to climate change (km3) - yearly average 15 35 Additional water losses/gains due to climate change (km3) - yearly average 0.25 0.25

community was unanimous that there degradation of mangrove forests in the are simply fewer fish. This applies delta—with mangrove wood serving as equally to inland and offshore fish firewood—damages marine and inland stocks. As with sea-level rise, climate fishery biodiversity in an interlinked change driven sea temperatures and vicious cycle (Concoran et al., 2007). CO2-related acidification of the oceans Responding to the full range of are not the only causal factors. As issues affecting the mainstay with many other social, economic, and fisheries industry of the region is environmental challenges, climate not a straightforward matter. Fishing change is rarely, if ever, the only factor is still a significant industry for the causing problems. Population growth Ghanaian economy as a whole, and increases the number of fishermen, its rapid decline will clearly not add to resulting in damaging fish practices, the wealth and social cohesion of the such as the use of small gauge nets nation. The only solution currently being or even dynamite, and the practically explored seriously is the establishment uncontrolled intensification of large- of fish farms, for which a few select CONCLUSION scale commercial operations has not pilot projects were taking hold, to the favoured sustainable management of great interest of the local industry. The hallmarks of climate stress are clearly evident in the fish stocks. Regulation of foreign commercial everyday life and the local environment of Ghana, whether in Two other climate change-related fishing was dismissed as “unrealistic” downtown Accra—recovering from unprecedented floods—or factors have also worsened the under current circumstances, even if in coastal and northern savannah regions. More areas situation for fishermen. More volatile, only to limit fish net gauge, so that the were not visited, but the National Workshop organized as a unpredictable, and extreme weather smallest fish would escape unharmed part of the research undertaken did highlight several other is a serious safety hazard. Some while promoting the continual zones of the country facing still different and significant fishermen cannot swim and the small replenishment of stocks. Once again, pressures characteristic of those areas, some of which are fishing boats are often at serious the preservation of the local mangrove also documented in local research (Asante et al., 2010; risk on this high-energy coastline, forests represents an obvious positive EPA-Ghana, 2011; Tachie-Obeng et al., 2011). In every especially in the case of fierce, response, with multiple benefits, even case, climate change stress met head-on with local issues unpredictable storms. Second, the if steps towards implementation are not caused by climate change. In Accra, the floods were retreat of the shore has pushed the unexplored and doubtful. Yet another exacerbated by poor drainage and waste disposal methods. blue-water shelf, where most fishing avenue to be explored, which could In the Volta delta, coastal infrastructure, unsound irrigation, takes place, further away with each lower the vulnerability of the community and the upstream Volta hydro dam compounded one another passing decade and add to labour, through expanded incomes is providing in a context of growing climate-related sea-level rise. In the time, cost, and risks for fishermen in incentives and creating an enabling northern region of Ghana, local deforestation and savannah small craft. environment for local entrepreneurs burning wove complex interrelationships with the extreme Large and heavily equipped foreign to establish fish processing industries heat and water stress that was eroding the rural livelihoods in fishing boats from China, Japan, and to generate value-added goods with an area that in former times was the breadbasket for Ghana. Korea ply the offshore waters of the broader market potential. Other options With 50 additional days that could be considered “hot” in region for fish that are explored from worthy of consideration are certified, every current year, as compared with Ghana’s climate in the the port base in nearby Tema directly sustainable fishing programmes and 1960s, the heat has nevertheless only just begun to increase; to Asia. In Keta, however, there is no the establishment of marine reserves. a doubling, trebling, or more of the temperature increase fish processing industry, such as a is expected over the next 20–30 years, given the inertia of freezing works, for packaging the catch the global climate system (McSweeney et al., 2012; Hansen of local fishermen. Locals rely only et al., 2005). Thus, future climate stresses are likely to be on “middle men” who truck the Keta extreme and will continue to exploit the economic, social, and catch back to Accra. Most of the fish environmental weaknesses of Ghana, and retard economic leaving for Accra is sold smoked. Local growth and social and human development potential, fishermen stated that the smoking of especially among the poorest communities. However, steps fish used to be permitted by burning taken by the government are heading in a promising direction, the less useful remains of the once and the success and relative stability of Ghana compared with bountiful catch. However, the falling other countries in the region make it an interesting candidate fish harvest means that local trees and for a more concerted effort. United with the international forests are instead used for fuel, and community, Ghana has the potential to show the way in this has reportedly exacerbated local tackling the local impacts of climate change as they are deforestation concerns. Moreover, increasingly coming to the fore. VIETNAM

VIETNAM COUNTRY STUDIES GENERAL PURPOSE

FEEDBACK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT 1 OF THE MONITOR’S METHODOLOGY

EXPLAIN HOW THE ANALYSIS OF THE MONITOR 2 CAN BE USED IN A NATIONAL SITUATION

SERVE AS A KNOWLEDGE-SHARING MECHANISM FOR BEST PRACTICE AND 3 CHANGE MANAGEMENT FOR THE BENEFIT OF OTHER VULNERABLE COUNTRIES

PROVIDE AN OUTSIDE SUPPORTING ANALYSIS OF INTEREST 4 TO NATIONAL POLICY-MAKERS AND DEVELOPMENT PARTNERS 218 I COUNTRY STUDIES

Vulnerability Gender Impact Areas Indicator Confi dence Bias 2010 2030 KEY FIGURES DROUGHT Population 87,840,000 FLOODS & LANDSLIDES 2012 GDP PPP (Dollars) STORMS Total $320,874,000,000 WILDFIRES Per Capita $3,549

Real Growth 5.6% BIODIVERSITY

DESERTIFICATION

ECONOMY HEATING & COOLING GDP by Sector LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY Primary/Extractive 22% PERMAFROST Secondary/Productive 40% SEA-LEVEL RISE Tertiary/Services 37.7% WATER Key Sector(s) Industry DIARRHEAL INFECTIONS CLIMATE SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT HEAT & COOL ILLNESSES HUNGER Human Development (Rank) Medium (128th)

Life Expectancy 75.2 years MALARIA & VECTOR BORNE

Annual Population Growth 1% MENINGITIS

Illiteracy 3.1% AGRICULTURE Urban Population 31% FISHERIES Access to Electricity 97.6% FORESTRY Gender Development 48th HYDRO ENERGY Undernourished Population (2006/08) 11% TOURISM Living below poverty line ($1,25/day) 13.1% TRANSPORT Population without Improved Water Source 12.2%

Offi cial Development Assistance (% of GDP)) 4.4%

Public Health Expenditure 7.2%

Public Education Expenditure 5.3% OIL SANDS

OIL SPILLS

CLIMATE/GEOGRAPHY BIODIVERSITY Climate Zone Monsoon tropical CORROSION Likely to increase by 1.0-5.2% Projected Rainfall Change and 1.8-10.1% WATER Tropical Cyclones Yes (decreasing trend) AIR POLLUTION Desertifi cation None INDOOR SMOKE Low-Elevation Coastal Zone (10m and below) 20% CARBON OCCUPATIONAL HAZARDS Forest Cover Change (1990-2008) 44.3% SKIN CANCER MIGRATION/DISPLACEMENT AGRICULTURE

Emigration Rate 2.4% FISHERIES

Immigrants as Share of Total Population 0.1% FORESTRY Internally Displaced People None VIETNAM I 219

2010 2030 2010 2030

ACUTEW VIETNAM 3 MODERATEP

2 1

The Monitor research team held a nationally-focused policy workshop in the Vietnamese capital of Hanoi and undertook fi eld research in two provinces: Bên Tre, in the extreme south of Vietnam, at one of the outlet points of the Mekong Delta, and Yen Bái, in the highlands to the north-west of Hanoi in northern Vietnam. 1 HANOI In recent years, Vietnam has consistently been one of the world’s fastest growing economies and is an important 2 YEN BAI contributor to global growth (IMF WEO, 2012). Getting climate policy right will enable Vietnam to grow even faster 3 BEN TRE and to accelerate its already impressive strides in reducing poverty and safeguarding the health of its people, as evidenced by the signifi cant progress it has achieved with respect to the Millennium Development Goals (ODI, 2010). Among the countries most vulnerable to the effects of climate change, especially in economic terms, Vietnam 3 also suffers serious health impacts from carbon-intensive urban industrial and transport-related air pollution and, especially in rural and highland areas, hazardous household cooking and heating practices from the indoor burning of wood, coal, and other materials. The full range of climate-related effects is harming last mile efforts to reduce poverty. The government has clearly recognized the benefi ts of a strong response to climate change and embraced efforts to begin low-carbon transition as a means of increasing competitiveness. It has unequivocally prioritized these steps in its policy directives and MULTI-DIMENSIONAL CLIMATE VULNERABILITY: ACUTE foreign relations. As a result, it is taking concrete steps to safeguard and enhance the economic, social, and environmental dividends of its growth. This in itself is a MULTI-DIMENSIONAL CARBON VULNERABILITY: MODERATE compelling message to the world, given that Vietnam is anticipated to be among the largest economies of the 21st century (O’Neill et al., 2005). CAPACITY: INTERMEDIARY The country’s policy stance on climate change is path-breaking for one with low-emissions and limited responsibility for climate change experienced to date. POPULATION 2010/2030: 88/102 MILLION However, new research aggregated for the Monitor’s assessment in this report suggests that there is still further scope for enhancing these policies. Nevertheless, GDP 2010/2030 (PPP): 280 BILLION/1.5 TRILLION USD the approach adopted serves as an important example of success that other vulnerable countries around the world would be well advised to examine in detail. GDP PER CAPITA 2010/2030 (PPP): 3,000/14,000 USD 220 I COUNTRY STUDIES

BACKGROUND AND CONTEXT

BACKGROUND AND CONTEXT With a population of over 90 million today, Vietnam is a populous and fast- growing lower-middle-income South East Asian country, bordering China to the north and Laos and Cambodia to the west (CIA, 2012). Vietnam is similar in size to Germany or Japan. Its climate is tropical monsoon and varies from warm in the south to cool in parts of the sub-tropical north; its climate also changes depending on elevation in the many mountainous parts of the country. Although economic growth has been consistently fast in the last decade, GDP per capita is still very low at 3,000 US dollar (PPP), or 1,200 dollars per capita in nominal terms, but could increase ten times by 2030, as anchored in IPCC marker scenarios (IPCC, 2000). The affl uent and international urban centres of Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City contrast with the less developed rural areas with their still excessive poverty levels. A strong education system and human capital, as well as relatively robust institutional governance and infrastructure indicate that Vietnam’s capacity is not among the lowest. For similar reasons and due to its population size, the United Nations has never considered Vietnam a Least Developed Country. The country carries relatively high macroeconomic climate risk compared with more advanced economies, since the agricultural sector represents 20% of GDP and employs over half of its workforce. Reducing risks will involve diversifi cation of the labour force into the industrial and service sectors, as well as modernizing farming through irrigation systems. As the Vietnamese economy experiences sustained high growth, it will be a priority to limit the negative effects of the industrialization process associated with its structural progression to higher income levels. While Vietnam’s GHG emissions are low at 3.5 tons per capita and are expected to remain below 4 tons per capita into the 2020s. Vietnam’s industrial, VIETNAM I 221

THE MONITOR'S ASSESSMENT CLIMATE CHANGE CARBON ECONOMY NATIONAL RESPONSE OVERVIEW STATUS urbanizing, power generation, and a key indicator of climate change, related to climate change are is estimated to claim 10,000 socio-economic profiles mean have led has increased in number by 30 and estimated to be Heat and Cold casualties a year in 2010, rising to to high concentrations of fine particles, 50 respectively for a given year, as Illnesses and Hunger. Heat and Cold over 20,000 deaths per year in 2030 which are extremely toxic. Moreover, compared with Vietnam’s 1960s Illnesses, or mortality among chronic as pollution levels rise. The northern heavy reliance on firewood for domestic climate. Both are set to increase disease sufferers during heat waves, Red River basin around Hanoi has cooking and heating poses serious even more substantially through to present particularly severe challenges significant, excessive levels of fine air health risks (Climate Analytics, 2012). mid-century and potentially beyond to the elderly, whereas Hunger particulates from traffic and industrial Despite its strengths, the (McSweeney et al., 2012). predominantly concerns young children. emissions which are highly hazardous environmental vulnerability of Vietnam The multi-dimensional vulnerability While mortality is low in each case, to human health. The country’s to climate change is extreme. Its of Vietnam to climate change is an average of over 800,000 people current growth pathway would see mountainous geography and coastal considered in the highest category is estimated to be affected each year that worsen as economic growth and frontage combine with exposure to of Acute and rising. Vulnerability to by the aggravating effect of climate industrialization expand (World Bank, tropical cyclones (typhoons) and the carbon economy is estimated change on hunger. 2012; Donkelaar et al., 2010). storms which form in the western as Moderate and stable. Economic The assessment used for Labour In economic terms, the most Pacific Ocean, leaving the country impacts are the main sources of Productivity and Sea-level Rise are significant economic losses due to the prone to extreme floods, landslides, Vietnam’s vulnerability, with human or considered relatively reliable, whereas carbon economy concern Biodiversity heavy rainfall, and high winds. The health effects being less extreme in other main impacts are more indicative (2010/2030: 0.3%/0.6% GDP), Human low-lying Mekong delta is one of the comparison with other countries. Total or less certain due to the limitations of Health (2010/2030: 0.3%/0.3%) and largest flood-prone zones of the world. economic losses are estimated to cost models relied upon for these indicators. Fisheries (2010/2030: 0.2%/0.2% Most of the southern tip of the country, Vietnam 5% of its GDP in net terms in In terms of positive impacts due to GDP). The carbon economy effects including much of nearby Ho Chi Minh 2010, growing to 11% of GDP by 2030, climate change assessed here, Vietnam for Agriculture constitute a 0.2% loss City, are at less than one metre above as the country’s vulnerability shifts is understood to benefit very slightly to GDP in 2010, but are converted sea level. Vietnam’s tropical climate from Severe to Acute over this period. from additional water supply as a result into a 0.1% gain to GDP by 2030, will continue to heat up, bringing more The economic cost of the carbon of additional rainfall, overcompensating due to the expected realization of drought spells and fishery losses as economy is estimated at a much for heightened evaporation as the heat carbon fertilization benefits for crop thermal conditions increasingly exceed lower 0.8% and is set to remain stable increases. For similar reasons, Vietnam productivity. However, this gain to GDP already elevated historical levels. relatively through to 2030. However, is also estimated to experience a is more than offset by the expected Social and economic vulnerabilities the human cost of the carbon economy slight decline in aridity in the driest 0.4% of GDP losses due to climate are also high, especially in remote is considered Severe and estimated zones which could become more change. highland communities. Insurance exists already to cause over 50,000 deaths humid. However, these findings are The human health impacts are for health care, but is rarely available per year, increasing to over 60,000 based on global models (or IPCC considered relatively reliable, whereas for farmers, fishing operations or even deaths per year by 2030. model ensembles) and their results impacts for Biodiversity, for instance, infrastructure. Electricity grid access is contrast with Vietnam’s own reference are considered more indicative. very high for the country as a whole, but CLIMATE CHANGE scenarios, which project higher rates Fisheries impacts are labelled here as in some of the poorest communities, it The following most serious climate of evaporation than rainfall, and large speculative, due to the limited scientific reaches just over half of all households, change impact areas are assessed (for declines in rain and river flows during research currently available, especially where plumbed water sources are also 2010/2030) in order of the scale of dry spells, which are not always offset as regards the effects of various absent and malnutrition rates and the GDP losses from higher to lower: by increases in flood flows (Nohara et pollutants, such as acid rain on key associated stunting of children can be r

LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY, ACUTE/ACUTE al., 2006; Hansen et al., 2007; Vietnam species of fresh or brackish water fish commonplace. 4.4%/8.6% of GDP MONRE, 2010). and aquatic life. The acidification of the HIGH HIGH r

SEA-LEVEL RISE, / oceans as it absorbs CO2 is however 1.5%/2.7% of GDP CARBON ECONOMY a well established area of concern r FISHERIES, SEVERE/ACUTE Regarding carbon economy cost in (Sabine and Feely in Reay et al. (eds.), THE MONITOR’S ASSESSMENT 0.5%/1.6% of GDP human terms, Indoor Smoke is the 2007; IPCC, 2007). OVERVIEW r
AGRICULTURE, HIGH/SEVERE most serious concern, accounting On the basis of the Monitor’s 0.2%/0.4% for just over 40,000 deaths per year assessment, the impact of climate r

HEATING AND COOLING, HIGH/SEVERE in 2010 and similar mortality levels change is estimated to have already 0.1%/0.3% of GDP by 2030, as a result of disease from NATIONAL RESPONSE held back to a significant degree the r

FLOODS AND LANDSLIDES, ACUTE/ACUTE exposure to smoke from indoor fires STATUS economic prosperity of Vietnam’s 0.1%/0.1% of GDP for cooking and heating. Deaths due Policy development on climate fast-growing economy, effects which r
BIODIVERSITY, MODERATE/MODERATE to indoor smoke are stable, because change in Vietnam has been a serious are estimated here to grow steeply 0.1%/0.1% of GDP despite a fast expanding population, and active field of activity for many in severity in the next 20 years. r

DROUGHT, ACUTE/ACUTE economic growth is expected to see years. The 2007/8 “National Target Certainly, the top 10% of days and 0.1%/0.1% of GDP many households adopt cleaner Programme to Respond to Climate nights previously considered “hot,” The most serious health impacts burning fuels and stoves. Air Pollution Change” (NTP-RCC) carved out the 222 I COUNTRY STUDIES

CLIMATE FINANCE ASSETS GAPS

first major national policy framework resources between adaptation and ASSETS Engaged and concerned groups and committed over 50 million USD of low-carbon investments. These funds Several strong points are notable of academics, non-governmental domestic resources to tackling climate represent monies announced by hallmarks of Vietnam’s response to organizations, international actors, change, in particular to respond to the donor governments or multilateral climate change: and other civil society actors impacts of climate change (Vietnam institutions to the main database r

Strong Executive Leadership: The clear especially active in the nation’s MONRE, 2008). In 2012, Vietnam of the Organization for Economic support of the Prime Minister behind capital are a valuable resource for the launched its “National Climate Change Co-operation and Development as the climate policy project of Vietnam Government to draw upon, as it refines Strategy” (NCCS), which covers a range principally targeting climate change will be essential for meaningful and advances its climate change of vulnerability and low-carbon issues (OECD CRS, 2012). They do not vertical (central, provincial, district/ policy project in the years ahead. The (Vietnam NCCS, 2011). The NCCS is necessarily represent funds supporting municipal) and horizontal (across group should be fostered and relied also fundamentally different from the the government of Vietnam’s climate multiple ministries/departments) upon to support the fine tuning of earlier National Target Programme, in change policies and programmes, collaboration, necessary to strengthen policy development, implementation, that it conveys firm directives of the although a share of these funds may, the country’s resilience to climate and monitoring. Executive to all relevant government indeed, be applied in this manner. In change and seize key opportunities for r
Buoyant International Support: The offices to bear responsibility for the case of Vietnam, climate finance low-carbon development. Government has clearly indicated implementation. The Strategy outlines is almost exclusively bi-lateral with r

Governance Mechanism: A clear and to development partners the the following ten priority task areas for Japan as the largest climate donor, comprehensive policy framework importance of climate change as implementation, which provide a useful followed by Germany and France. and coordination mechanism has a national development priority. insight into the foundations of Vietnam’s The split of bilateral funds between been established with executive International development partner national response to climate change: loans and grants is almost 90:10, so authority and provides the substantive donor governments, such as Japan 1. Disaster preparedness most of the finance is in the form of and operational mechanism with and France, and international financial and climate monitoring concessional loans. phasing, responsibilities, and institutions including the World Bank 2. Food and water security All other factors remaining equal, the financial parameters outlined for have responded by forming a “Support 3. Sea-level rise high levels of vulnerability in Vietnam implementing Vietnam’s climate policy Programme to Respond to Climate 4. Protection and sustainable and its relatively significant capacity response. The National Workshop Change” (SPRCC) coordination group development of forests make the country a sensible early held in the context of the country to assist Vietnam in its development (carbon sinks and biodiversity) priority destination for climate finance. research undertaken highlighted how and implementation of climate change 5. GHG reductions Vietnam is developing a robust climate moving from governance to effective policy; an evaluation mechanism 6. Increase of the role of government change policy and implementation implementation and monitoring is now fiscal/loan support, including financial 7. Community capacity development model that will be of interest and becoming the overriding challenge for resource commitments form a 8. Scientific and technological use to other countries in similar Vietnam. growing share of Vietnam’s Official development income and vulnerability strata, but r
National Reference Scenarios: Development Assistance (ODA), all 9. International cooperation which, unlike Vietnam, have farther Vietnam has regularly updated and of which promote harmonization, and integration to go in making progress on building communicated national climate cooperation, action, and results. 10. Diversification of financial resources their multi-dimensional capacity for change scenarios with a high r

Public Financial Commitments: and investment effectiveness implementation. Despite being the resolution of sub-national information Vietnam has committed substantial Furthermore, concerted efforts to largest contribution worldwide, the across a range of key concerns such government mobilized funds to implement climate change policy at the 200 million USD of external support as rainfall and evaporation, sea-level the project, initially amounting to regional level are also underway, with for adaptation is well below 0.1% of rise, and others. Clarity on an agreed approximately 50 million USD over a one of the initial target provinces, Bên Vietnam’s GDP and therefore pales in set of reference scenarios is essential 5–6 year period. Tre, visited as part of the field research comparison to the scale of economic to calibrating policy responses, r
Key Sector Effects Addressed: The for the Monitor. losses estimated at over 5% of GDP in allocating/prioritizing resources and existing climate change strategy and 2010. In ideal circumstances, greatly anchoring expert debate; regular policies of Vietnam already address CLIMATE FINANCE enhanced international support should updating is essential, given the fast the majority of the key issues, In 2010, Vietnam attracted the sixth be forthcoming to assist Vietnam pace of knowledge development in including sea-level rise, agriculture/ largest volume of international climate in dealing with such large-scale the field of climate change. In light food and water security, heating change finance among developing impacts. However, given the possible of this assessment for instance, and cooling (through urban energy countries, totalling over 500 million scale of the shortfall and the low-end Vietnam might consider adding sea efficiency), as well as disasters, such USD. Only Brazil, Egypt, Kenya, prospects for large-scale increases in and pond temperature and acidity as flooding and landslides. India, and Indonesia received more foreign assistance, Vietnam will likely reference measures of concern to funds. However, with 200 million come under increasing pressure to the fisheries industry, and Wet Bulb GAPS USD targeting adaptation, Vietnam invest available domestic resources Globe Temperature (WBGT) of interest Some gaps can be identified on the was the single largest recipient of in order to preserve the resilience and to businesses, occupational safety basis of this Monitor’s innovative Adaptation funds, and has a very ensure the ongoing competitiveness of specialists, and economists. assessment methodology. In 2010, balanced allocation of international its economy. r Vibrant National-level Civil Society: the first Monitor would have identified VIETNAM I 223

OTHER CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES very few gaps, testifying to the quickly and the share of renewable energy safety to forest protection or farming vital to ensuring quality control of evolving nature of our understanding of in the power generation sector to knowledge, that it was seen as a key implementation projects. climate change. Gap areas which merit 5% by 2020 and a modest 11% priority and features prominently also r

Safety Nets: In some of the poorest further exploration by stakeholders by 2050. It also involves reducing in the National Strategy. However, parts of Vietnam, health services include: emissions from agriculture and explaining complex concepts and are made available free of charge to r
Labour Productivity: The most waste disposal in a comprehensive responses in terms accessible and the lowest income groups including significant impact for Vietnam as low-carbon strategy. With carbon meaningful to different communities ethnic minorities, with progressive assessed by the Monitor. It is to be economy losses representing 0.8% was seen as a challenge. Wide-ranging cost schemes depending on income expected that it is not addressed by of GDP and quite significant human media: TV, radio, and the Internet, level for health services or insurance. current policies, since the effect has impacts particularly due to indoor could provide a range of possibilities Emergency teams as state or volunteer not been included in any IPCC reports smoke, providing incentives for the for reaching target audiences. Efforts services are mobilized for on-the-spot to date (IPCC, 1990, 1995, 2001, use of clean burning household fuels/ to raise awareness should focus responses to extreme events. and 2007). However, in noting in its stoves and emission reductions that on options for practical action that r

State Education System Reach: 2008 NTP that mines would require also yield clean air benefits could people can relate to and become Vietnam’s public school system is more energy for cooling, Vietnam did help Vietnam to maximize the social involved in implementing. present in every municipality and is a recognize the important relationship and economic benefits of low-carbon r

Forestry and Payment for Ecosystem major asset for responding to climate between worker productivity and development. The Clean Development Services/REDD+: Forest covers change in vulnerable communities rising heat (Vietnam MONRE, 2008). Mechanism (CDM) should continue to almost half of the surface of Vietnam, around the country. The potential for Experts also noted ongoing inquiry be drawn upon in order to maximize but land-use conversions, such as expanding awareness and education by the Vietnamese Ministry of low-carbon technology saturation that wetlands to productive zones for programmes is high, while schools can Labour – Invalids and Social Affairs will increase energy and economic fisheries or agriculture, as well as also support health monitoring and (MOLISA) into climate change effects. resilience and competitiveness, in deforestation and forest degradation, food security among children, who are With nearly half of its workforce additional to their potential health, are all clearly at significant levels, as a high-risk demographic group. currently vulnerable to extreme social and environmental benefits. A evident from the country’s national r
Sustainable Fishing: Fishing is a forms of occupational heat stress, “Green Growth” strategy is set to be carbon inventory, where land usage large industry, but facing growing incorporating a response to this adopted in 2012, which may provide and change (LULUCF) make up 15% concerns about overfishing and fish large-scale economic impact would additional impetus to the work of of all emissions (Climate Analytics, stock depletion due to unsustainable be advisable for future climate policy Vietnam in this area. 2012). Deforestation exacerbates practices (UoC and Vietnam MPI, iterations (Kjellstrom et al., 2009a). r

Regional/Transnational Dimensions: fresh water scarcity, flash flooding 2010). Losses due to climate change r
Fisheries: The impact of climate Vietnam’s interests are directly and landslides, depletes natural could be attenuated in part by change on fisheries was recognized affected by the policies of neighbouring carbon sinks, pollutes the air, improving the sustainability of fishing in the 2008 NTP, but has yet to find countries. In particular, increased water and contributes to the erosion of practices, and in this way the resilience its way into an operational strategy withdrawals and sediment withholding biodiversity, all impacts that drain of fish stocks. Enforcing simple or response. On the basis of the infrastructure in the upstream GDP and inhibit economic growth. The regulations on fish net size (large Monitor’s assessment, Vietnam Mekong, such as in neighbouring Laos National Strategy aims to stabilize gauge) and promoting sustainable has the largest total losses in the and China, have direct impacts on or increase forest cover, but given produce certification for fishing fisheries sector due to climate change biodiversity, fisheries, coastal erosion, the macroeconomic risks involved, it operations are just two examples of of any country in the world. Losses and saline intrusion in the downstream may make sense for the Government compelling and simple options for from climate change and the carbon delta region in Vietnam. Vietnam’s to give incentives to land holders or addressing unsustainable fishing. economy are over 0.7% of GDP in national policies could, therefore, local custodians to ensure sustainable r
Pollution Controls: In all regions visited, 2010, growing to nearly 2% of GDP by consider raising these concerns in forest management through a payment industrial, domestic and agricultural 2030. This is in part due to the sheer the context of the intergovernmental for ecosystem services scheme. Efforts pollution was highlighted as a major scale of the country’s fishing sector, Mekong River Commission, and seeking to maximize the potential of the UN concern. From mining refuse to coal and the vulnerabilities of its tropical to stimulate domestic policy responses deforestation programme (REDD+) plant slurry, pesticides, domestic waters and unsustainably managed in other countries that are favourable to should also be prioritized as a central sewage and the use of poison to fish stocks (UoC and Vietnam MPI, its interests. component in future climate strategies. catch fish, water resources were 2010). Therefore, building resilience r

Monitoring and Evaluation: being polluted, with negative effects or limiting impacts in the fisheries OTHER CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES Policymakers and the climate change for fishing, biodiversity, and water sector through improved fisheries r

Awareness: Country research stressed community in Hanoi expressed an availability. The finding implied that management would help to reinforce the level of public awareness on interest in enhancing monitoring and increasing resilience to climate-induced any future climate policies. the issue of climate change as both evaluation efforts in order to promote water stress could be addressed in part r

Low-carbon Objectives: The current a challenge and an opportunity at learning and improve the mobilization through improved waste management national policy includes increasing various levels, national, provincial, and and prioritization of resources towards across different sectors. energy efficiency across different municipal. So much can be achieved higher impact outcomes. Better sectors, carbon sinks through forests through awareness alone, from flood criteria for evaluation were seen as 224 I COUNTRY STUDIES

BÊ´N TRE – MEKONG DELTA

The Mekong delta of Vietnam is almost of the Maginot Line, it nevertheless help to alleviate or offset some of the identical in area and population size represents a bargain, if compared to climate-related stress being felt and at to The Netherlands in Europe including the unthinkable costs such enormous a lower cost than solid infrastructure the Rhine and Meuse, Schelde Delta, infrastructure investments might responses. each spanning some 40,000 km2 incur in a developed country. A long- First, an intensification of agriculture in with around 18 million inhabitants. term Mekong Delta “Master Plan” the area has used water pumped from Bên Tre itself is one of a number of is also under development with the underground or from canals to meet low-lying coastal provinces in the involvement of a Dutch consortium growing irrigation needs. The water area and is heavily dependent on the (NWP, 2012). Local officials were volume removed from local supplies fishing industry, including intensive open about the fact that investment is therefore increasing in a context aquaculture such as shrimp farming. needs far exceed what the community of growing water scarcity. Increasing Hallmark concerns for the area relate could conceivably afford to invest, heat and drought due to climate to sea-level rise, such as salt intrusion and hoped that 90% of funds would change remain a likely exacerbating into water and soils, fisheries impacts be forthcoming from the international factor. However, withdrawal of ground due to warming waters and to a lesser community and the central government. water contributes to land subsidence, extent, air pollution. Drought as well The ability of the community to take or sinking land, which heightens as heavy and unpredictable rains on loans to pay for all the intended inundation vulnerabilities and can were further concerns raised by the construction was also severely limited. result in perceived sea-level rise community and these are highlighted However, certain projects were reported (Larson et al., 2001). in the Monitor’s assessment. Sea-level to be potentially justifiable as loans, Rainfall, especially in heavy rise causes a range of effects, including in light of the anticipated increases concentrations, is predicted to increase erosion of sea frontage and isolated in agricultural production that would for much of Vietnam due to climate flooding especially during record tides result from implementation. This change, as the Earth’s hydrological when the estuaries of the delta begin suggests some scope for communities system is accelerating (Vietnam to inundate the surrounding land. The and businesses to pay for construction MONRE, 2010). An alternative to most serious current effect, however, costs of water infrastructure later on expensive large-scale water generation relates to the increasing salinity of the basis of expanded incomes. facilities are low-cost, locally produced the waters as the sea pushes further With almost the entire province lying water catchment and storage units that upstream the Mekong. Bên Tre’s below only one metre above sea-level, harvest rainfall for subsequent use many downstream waterways are the whole area would be underwater for domestic purposes; however, the undergoing a transformation as salty by the end of the century according to available area for artificial catchment water progressively replaces previously the mid-point of the IPCC’s estimates would likely fall short of meeting the fresh water, ultimately restricting the (IPCC, 2007). Since the last IPCC needs of the agricultural industry. availability of water for domestic and report, much higher estimates have The second key factor is also linked agricultural purposes, and effectively been consistently put forward, to the booming agricultural industry drying up this coastal community. suggesting that the IPCC is at the of the broader region. From the ocean low-end of possible outcomes (RSNZ, frontage of Bên Tre back through the 2010; Füssel in Edenhofer et al. (eds.), Mekong across Vietnam and reaching RESPONDING TO SEA-LEVEL RISE 2012). At the moment, however, sea- to the hinterlands of Cambodia, Needless to say, the very serious level rise is a more manageable 2-3mm the agricultural boom has been impacts and imminent risks linked to per year, or 1 cm every 3-5 years sustained by large-scale irrigation sea-level rise are of great concern. (Vietnam MONRE, 2010; NASA Climate, systems that are fed by the Mekong Local adaptation plans aim to gradually 2012). Given that it is not likely that itself. Upstream, not only in Vietnam transform the Mekong delta into international resources will ever be but also in Cambodia, this is often a South-East Asian version of The made available to fund infrastructure accomplished through the construction Netherlands, with a long list of intended for an expanse of over 60kms of of dams or dikes that help ensure a actions costing over 100 million coastline over the next five years, a predictable water supply at specific dollars in near-term investments for diversification of the response strategy points. On the whole, however, the the province of Bên Tre alone, only one is likely called for. Mekong’s flow rate may be affected by of 58 provinces in Vietnam. Although In a broader context, it is evident that a large-scale diversion of its water for 50–60% of the plan is aimed at crucial climate-driven sea-level rise is not irrigation (Fredén, 2011). Furthermore, infrastructure investments, such as the only factor aggravating Bên Tre’s dams built for irrigation purposes dykes, polders, water supply works and water-related concerns. Two important also trap riverine sediment upstream, dams, including 65kms of concrete sea issues are equally worrisome. If depriving the downstream river delta walls and coastal defences reminiscent adequately addressed, they might well of crucial alluvial deposits vital to its VIETNAM I 225

CLIMATE 2010 2030 CARBON 2010 2030 Contraction of biological zones (km2) - yearly average -150 -300 Volume of water to treat (millions m3) - yearly avereage 2,000 3,000 Additional land degraded due to climate change (km2) - yearly average -3,500 -7,250 Additional/reduced energy load due to climate change (GWh) - yearly average 1,500 6,000

Additional CO2 generated/reduced for heating and cooling due to climate change (kt CO2) - yearly average 550 2.500 Share of workforce particularly affected by climate change (%) - yearly average 48% 37% Additional land lost due to climate change (km3) - yearly average 150 300 Additional water losses/gains due to climate change (km3) - yearly average -1 -1

environmental integrity (Baran, 2010; in formal bilateral relations with Yang et al., 2005). A slowing river flow Cambodia and clearly spelling out the might therefore also be responsible concern in future national policies, for increasing contamination of would constitute steps forward in downstream zones in water with a high addressing these challenges. salt content as the Mekong’s ability to force back oceanic tidal movements is compromised. It is unclear whether or SUSTAINABLY MANAGING not an expected increase in river flow due to climate change would offset AQUACULTURE AND FISHERIES a growing intensification of water Catch fisheries and aquaculture, withdrawals (Vietnam MONRE, 2010). particularly shrimping, are the The retention of sediment also has a dominant industries and sources of further negative impact on marine and livelihood in Bên Tre. Serious exposure freshwater biodiversity and fisheries of the fisheries industry to climate and by reducing the nutrient content of the carbon risks did not, however, appear lower Mekong, as experts confirmed. to be a major local consideration. And Nor is does the question concern the at the same time that the industry is a suffering of downstream Bên Tre alone. major income earner, it is also capital The ecosystem of all parts of the delta intensive and highly risky. If disease system being tightly interlinked, local breaks out in a shrimp pond, the entire experts stressed the interdependence harvest is compromised, and possibly of fish movements. With the local also in the neighbouring ponds. So, biological richness of Bên Tre declining, while the industry is an important system wide risks and losses. The Establishing and enforcing strict its ability to serve as a corridor for fish income earner, it is also the sector that increased resilience should help offset regulations on net size (gauge) was migrations upstream is compromised incurs frequent losses. No insurance to some extent the mounting concerns another important measure that and is leading to a decline in fish was reported to be available for such over water temperature and acidity. helped to avoid depletion of young fish stocks in non-coastal delta provinces. high-risk activities as commercial pond In terms of catch fishing, there did not stocks and support the sustainable Therefore, there is a strong incentive shrimping. appear to be any serious regulation replenishment of fish. for inter-provincial cooperation to Furthermore, experts confirmed targeting overfishing and experts Finally, the preservation of coastal ensure that common resources are that water temperature and acidity referenced the use of poison for fishing mangrove forests was viewed as managed effectively and for the (pH) were fundamental concerns for and the harmful effect of sewerage an important priority for enhancing benefit of all. However, according controlled fish or shellfish ponds and and aquaculture pond refuse on free- biodiversity that could improve the to experts, this type of cooperation directly linked to disease outcomes. roaming fish stocks. quality and quantity of local fish stocks. was still at the exploratory phase. Increasing heat and pollution-related Higher prices were reported for fish Mangrove swamps serve several The upstream provincial university water acidity would only heighten or shellfish produced under certified functions: naturally accreting sediment at Can Tho for instance had recently the risk of disease. Government sustainable conditions. They provide that stems coastal erosion and warding formed “MekongNet,” to foster greater intervention appeared to be limited an economic advantage, which, in most off sea-level rise and the contamination understanding and cooperation around to issuing guidelines during periods of cases, outweighs the extra capital of coastal water lenses due to salt shared Mekong river interests. extreme heat, to try and limit the loss required to ensure compliance with intrusion. Mangroves also reduce At a national level, the long-term of fish or shellfish from farms. certification schemes, such as MSC. sea-to-land wind speeds during severe development objectives of neighbouring One systemic vulnerability identified for However, many fishermen could not storms, and help to limit the damage Cambodia have direct implications the aquaculture/shrimp industry was afford the additional financial outlay. caused by extreme weather. According for the prosperity and risks facing the the quality of hatcheries. High quality With sustainable fishing programmes to local experts, some preservation downstream delta communities of disease-resistant seedlings are bought only beginning to appear, the full zones had been established, but Vietnam, such as Bên Tre, Can Tho, at extra cost that is hard to justify when possibilities for such programmes in areas where mangroves were and others. Therefore, transnational a neighbouring pond might purchase were understood to be high. Building not protected, the forests were in cooperation on issues affecting the the low-cost version and contract and the capacity of producers by offering decline, due to a combination of local Mekong river are a serious economic, pass on disease anyway. Improving detailed training programmes was seen plundering and coastal stress. There environmental, and livelihood concern seed supply for shrimp is an important as an important step for promoting seemed to be few if any arguments for for Vietnam—even more so considering response to this concern: Stricter wider adoption of sustainable not protecting and seeking to expand the growing array of considerations regulation ensuring highest quality fishing activities. Financial stimuli the entirety of the remaining mangrove linked to climate change. Working control for all hatcheries could ensure or incentives are also likely to be forests. The main driver for degradation more actively with the Mekong River that all farmers use disease resistant necessary to help operators make the of the forests is pressure to enlist more Commission, prioritizing the issue seedlings to begin with, reducing transition to certified operations. space for agriculture or aquaculture. 226 I COUNTRY STUDIES

YEN BÁI – NORTH-WEST HIGHLANDS

Therefore, regulations and monitoring initiatives had apparently made bring higher yields and higher market prizes in extra-curricula student would be required to ensure protection. strides in reducing a variety of health prices. However, improved varieties competitions on environmental/ Yen Bái is a large and relatively concerns in recent years. In the of rice required more attention and climate issues; even very low-cost populous province in the north-west poorest communities, refrigeration was technical care from farmers, indicating items such as sun caps could make highland region of Vietnam. It is unusual, and air conditioning was to the importance of access to training the programmes more attractive, well a heavily forested area with an be found only in upscale restaurants and knowledge, as farmers made the attended, and broaden results. agriculture-based economy active in or hotels. shift in their crops and cultivation. The Schools also worked in close the valley zones, with several hydro- timing of planting and harvesting was cooperation with health stations energy installations in place. Farmers EXTREME WEATHER cited as particularly important. Weather monitoring children and their families produce staple crops, such as rice and AND IMPACTS forecasting information was made and alerting and referring sick children cassava, and, depending on the zones, readily accessible and was regularly who needed early intervention. In cultivate plants ranging from tea to fruit Experts reported a clear shift in the consulted by local farmers, with rural several schools, children whose trees, and in certain areas, also raise last 5–7 years in weather patterns. extension officers also promoting the families could not feed them would also livestock. The dominant form of energy The abruptness and timing of season practice. receive free meals. for cooking and heating is wood and changes was a hallmark alteration. One biomass for indoor fires/stoves, with school visited by the research team all the health risks that this practice had 60 children absent for reasons of SCHOOLS AND EDUCATION implies. illness, attributed to the sudden arrival Disaster education programmes were HYDRO-ENERGY The area of Yen Bái visited by the of warm weather. Large amounts of being successfully piloted in a number On the basis of the Monitor’s project researchers has a very low per stone debris brought downstream in of schools, although the focus was assessment, Vietnam is expected to capita income and high proportions recent flooding were visible in most mainly on personal safety, such as experience modest benefits for its of minority ethnic groups, living at the main waterways. Tractors were in avoiding riverbanks during heavy rains. Hydro-Energy sector as a result of socio-economic margin. No specific some locations clearing the debris and However, environmental and climate higher levels of rainfall. Local experts climate change adaptation plans locals attested to the expense of flood issues were set to be introduced in explained that more dry spells during were in place or under development cleanup operations. Prolonged hot and two schools visited, following training the hotter seasons would not affect for that area. However, a number of dry spells were widely reported to be sessions for teachers on these production for energy installations with government-led initiatives address key more common and had led to livestock issues. Schools were already active reservoirs, if annual rainfall (or runoff) climate-related vulnerabilities and local and crop losses and reductions in in teaching children to help preserve were to increase. However, installations officials had participated in workshops stream-flow during these periods. forests, to cultivate climate-resistant without reservoirs which relied instead on climate change policies as a Higher temperatures were a concern for vegetables outside their homes as a on a constant stream-flow would part of recent provincial and central agriculture and forestry due to water food supplement, and to follow basic be negatively affected. Increasing government initiatives. stress and insect and plant disease sanitary guidelines. Children from the the immediate water catchment outbreaks. A hotter climate was forcing poorest remote communities were also potential and quality of surrounding farmers to abandon some traditional lodged and fed at the school during land could potentially offset any SOCIAL VULNERABILITIES crops—one form of cabbage was cited term time for minimal fees. losses. In particular, the high-altitude The main climate change risks for as no longer able to grow effectively. Evidence of behavioural change as a forests absorb more water (by “cloud the region are extreme weather and Although winters were now shorter result of these initiatives was cited and catching”) and also release it more shifting climate patterns, with flooding, and the hot periods of the year longer, teachers confirmed that children also slowly and regularly, which helps to drought, and agricultural concerns the area had also experienced several passed on what they learned to their diminish the severity of droughts emphasized. Levels of socio-economic extreme cold snaps that had caused parents and relatives. The importance (Postel and Thompson, 2005). On vulnerability were very high, with child health concerns and livestock losses, of education was underscored by the whole, the bulk of hydro energy malnutrition rates and stunting at testifying to the volatility of weather in the number of houses in some of the in Vietnam is being produced from 10–20% or higher in certain villages. this area. No insurance schemes were lowest-income villages that lacked reservoir type installations. Although mortality was reportedly available for crop or livestock losses any improved water source, but did Local hydro-energy producers had also very low, children and the elderly are due to such extremes of weather or posses colour televisions with satellite successfully accredited projects with the high-risk groups. Some 40% of drought. But public irrigation works dishes. There were also limits to the Clean Development Mechanism households were without electricity, were ensuring wider access to reliable knowledge: hardship was cited as (CDM) and were able to confirm that and similar levels of households, water sources and it was hoped these one of the main causes of local forest the additional income stream provided especially in poorer villages, were would be further expanded. degradation, since people with no other by the sale of carbon credits as without an improved or plumbed water A number of government-linked alternatives would rely as a last resort Certified Emission Reductions (CER) source. Other climate-related health rural extension programmes were on the forests by chopping down trees was the determining factor in making concerns included a recent cholera operational in the region, assisting in order to sustain their livelihoods. the installations commercially viable. outbreak in a remote community. farmers to grow new varieties of crops, Teachers suggested that the impact Therefore, local entrepreneurs planned However, programmes promoting such as those promising to be more of educational programmes might to undergo the 1–2 year registration personal hygiene and other education suitable to warmer conditions, and to nevertheless be improved by offering process as a part of all future business VIETNAM I 227

expansion efforts for new energy merits attention. The government has installations. an interest to increase the transfer of risks to the insurance industry and to expand access to finance in order to TOWARDS COMMUNITY support enhanced economic growth. Microfinance andmicro-insurance RESILIENCE schemes have met with success in A boost to the resilience of Yen Bái as other countries in communities of it comes to grips with a warmer and similar income levels, and these could more volatile climate could expand provide inspiration for applying such on and reinforce various initiatives tools in Yen Bái and other parts of rural already under way as described Vietnam (Jansson, 2010). above. Schools and health stations Micro-insurance is of interest for a are active institutions at the centre of number of reasons. First and foremost, the poorest communities doing crucial because communities with the highest work but severely lacking in resources. levels of vulnerability, such as the Reinforcing the ability of schools and subsistence farmers of Yen Bái, risk health centres to deliver social support much more of their livelihoods to would likely yield immediate results extreme weather events than any CONCLUSION for the most vulnerable communities. other segment of the population. Supporting farmers as they make the Since micro-insurance is by definition Vietnam has made an impressive beginning in tackling climate transition to higher-yielding, higher- affordable and should be offered on change, in particular from a government policy perspective. value crops is an ongoing priority, as is a sustainable and equitable business The country serves as a case of interest for other developing the expansion of irrigation works. model for all concerned, it offers countries now considering how to meet the national climate Preserving, growing and sustainably the prospect of breaking part of the change policy challenge. It has consolidated helpful managing the forests of Yen Bái is also cycle that links poverty so closely to assistance from foreign partners and, with pilot activities a public good that will reinforce the vulnerability (Churchill and Matul, in select provinces, has begun to tackle the larger task of environmental resilience of the region 2012). The fact that health care implementing its policies on the ground. As climate change with positive benefits for farmers and insurance is widespread, even among is estimated in the Monitor to cause significant negative their families, and advantages for the poorest communities in Vietnam externalities for Vietnam, tackling the problem effectively hydro-energy installations. The CDM is demonstrates the viability of the should provide an economic boost for the country. Raising already being used to support large- concept for other concerns, particularly community level awareness, while fostering local sources of scale energy projects in the region. in the agricultural context, such as for knowledge and the people’s capacity to engage with climate However, CDM projects could also be crops and livestock. If farmers have change and take actions at the community level will enhance developed as bundled programmes income protection from year to year, their impact. Likewise, focusing on monitoring and evaluating of activity, in particular to promote their productivity can be regularized project performance will lead to higher-quality projects and the dissemination of clean-burning and enhanced. When farmers are better results. or low-emission cooking/heating insured, they are also more likely to Vietnam would do well to focus energies on core stoves (UNDP, 2011). This would be able to access finance to enhance macroeconomic risks, such as improving resource help to address both the indoor their yields and income further (Zeller management in the fisheries sector and responses to smoke health risks and the forest and Sharma, 2000). Ultimately, all labour productivity exposure, as well as promoting ongoing degradation concerns of the region. this will boost economic growth and diversification of the economy onto a lower-risk service Local manufacturing of appropriate and public finances, which can, in turn, be and industrial sector-orientated footing. Opportunity low-cost stoves may yield an additional reinvested in more sustainable growth should also be taken to help those remaining vulnerable economic dividend. Policymakers and should more than justify any outlay communities to become more resilient through programmes may also be interested to consider to provide incentives in partnership such as education campaigns or encouraging the use of offering lifeline payments to forest with competent organizations. agro-insurance. Developing the interlinkages with low-carbon holders or custodians, especially ethnic concerns on forestry, wetland or mangrove preservation minority groups for forest stewardship, and indoor household fuel use, and taking advantage giving them incentives to preserve of technology transfer and financing through the Clean and sustainably manage the region’s Development Mechanism will all help to maximize economic, forests. social and environmental benefits. With the anticipated Finally, the very limited access to either intensification of climate change stresses in the immediate crop/farm and infrastructure insurance years and decades ahead, early action and investment will or finance for small-scale farmers also surely guarantee the highest dividends.