ASEAN INTO the 1990S Also by Alison Broinowski

ASEAN INTO THE 1990s Also by Alison Broinowski

AUSTRALIA, ASIA AND THE MEDIA (editor) TAKE ONE AMBASSADOR *UNDERSTANDING ASEAN (editor)

* Also published by Palgrave Macmillan ASEAN into the 1990s

Edited by Alison Broinowski

M MACMILLAN © Alison Broinowski 1990

No paragraph of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, 33-4 Alfred Place, London WC1E 7DP.

Any person who does any unauthorised act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages.

First published 1990

Published by THE MACMILLAN PRESS LTD Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 2XS and London Companies and representatives throughout the world

British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data ASEAN into the 1990s, 1. ASEAN, history I. Broinowski, Alison 341.24'73 ISBN 978-0-333-49721-0 ISBN 978-1-349-20886-9 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-1-349-20886-9 Contents

List of Figures vii List of Tables viii Map of Southeast Asia including ASEAN countries ix Preface x Notes on the Contributors xi Abbreviations xii 1 Introduction: ASEAN since 1967- Origins, Evolution and Recent Developments Frank Frost 1 2 The Six ASEAN Economies: 1980-88 Amina Tyabji 32 3 ASEAN Economic Co-operation in the 1980s and 1990s Srikanta Chatterjee 58 4 ASEAN Security Co-operation: Past, Present and Future Tim Huxley 83 5 ASEAN's Security in the 1990s Sheldon W. Simon 112 6 ASEAN and Indochina: The Dialogue Carlyle A. Thayer 138 7 ASEAN and the Japanese Role in Southeast Asia Lee Poh Ping 162 8 The Politics of Islam in the ASEAN Countries Harold Crouch 184 9 The Australian Media and Australian-ASEAN Relations Rodney Tiffen 200

v vi Population

10 ASEAN's Population Gavin W. Jones 219 Conclusion: ASEAN into the 1990s Alison Broinowski 237

Appendices A. The Manila Declaration (15 December 1987) 242 B. Extracts from the Joint Communique of the Twentieth ASEAN Ministerial Meeting (15-16 June 1987) 244 Further Reading 253 Index 261 List of Figures

3.1 ASEAN organisational structure, 1983 60 3.2 ASEAN secretariat organisational structure, 1983 61 10.1 Trends in total fertility rates, ASEAN countries 223 10.2 ASEAN countries: population in 1985 and projected increase, 1985-2000 227 10.3 Thailand: age pyramid 1970 and projected for 1986 and 2000 229 10.4 Dependency ratios: total, young and old, Indonesia, Singapore, Philippines, Malaysia and Thailand 230 10.5 Population growth index of 6-11 and 12-17 age groups, ASEAN countries 232

Vll List of Tables

2.1 Comparative merchandise trade ratios of ASEAN and selected countries, 1986 34 2.2 ASEAN: growth, inflation and terms of trade 35 2.3 ASEAN: structural change and growth of production 36 2.4 ASEAN: growth of GDP during the 1980s 37 2.5 ASEAN: structure of demand 40 2.6 ASEAN: direct foreign investment in relation to total financial flows, 1977-83 aggregate 41 2.7 Distribution of stock of direct foreign investment in ASEAN home country/region 1978 and 1982 42 2.8 ASEAN: external public debt and debt service ratios 43 2.9 ASEAN: indicators of central government finance 44 2.10 ASEAN: structure of merchandise exports and imports 46 2.11 ASEAN: direction of merchandise and manufactured exports 47 2.12 ASEAN: intra-regional and extra-regional trade patterns, 1987 48 2.13 ASEAN: population, labour force and unemployment 51 2.14 ASEAN: selected indicators of social development 55 5.1 ASEAN states and Vietnam's armed forces equipment, 1986-1987 116 7.1 Japan's imports from ASEAN 165 7.2 Japanese direct investment: annual flows and stocks in US$ million 168 10.1 ASEAN countries: population size, growth rates and population density 220

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Map of Southeast Asia including ASEAN countries Preface

There can be no better reason for writing a book than to meet a known need. During the seven years since the publication of Understanding ASEAN (1982), the contributors and I have been asked so many times for an updated volume that it seemed a real demand must exist, and Macmillan agreed. The catalyst, in May 1988, was the twenty-third Foreign Policy Summer School at Otago University in New Zealand, to which Dr Ralph H. C. Rayburn invited experts and participants from regional countries to consider ASEAN and New Zealand. Five of the contributors to this book spoke at the Dunedin School, and their papers, variously modified as a result of our discussions, appear as chapters 2, 3, 5, 6 and 8. I acknowledge with gratitude Dr Rayburn's part in the process, and his permission for us to use the papers as a starting point. In their original form, they appear together with those of other speakers in his New Zealand and the ASEAN Countries (Dunedin, University of Otago, 1988). I have chosen authors whose knowledge of ASEAN affairs is based on having been born in, lived in, or frequently visited the region, and who can approach it with the advantage of personal specialisation of one king or another. Dr Frank Frost is the only author in the present volume who was also a contributor to Understanding A'SEAN. Themes in his introductory chapter are expanded by the other writers and taken in different directions. The risk of some repetition, particularly on important security issues, is one I considered justified. My work on this book was made possible by the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade in Canberra, which gave me leave to go to Dunedin and Seoul, by the Korea Research Foundation and the Centre for East and West Studies of Yonsei University which provided me with a fellowship to research material for this and another book in Korea in 1988-89. I acknowledge their support with appreciation. Currency amounts are United States dollars unless otherwise stated. Chinese and Japanese names are shown with the family name first, unless in published material the reverse order is used.

ALISON BROINOWSKI

X Notes on the Contributors

Alison Broinowski is an Australian diplomat and author who has spent most of her working life in Asia. Dr Srikanta Chatterjee is Senior Lecturer in Economics at Massey University, New Zealand. Dr Harold Crouch is Senior Research Fellow in the Department of Political and Social Change, Research School of Pacific Studies, Australian National University. Dr Frank Frost is Director of the Foreign Affairs Group of the Legislative Research Service, Parliamentary Library, Australian Parliament. Dr Tim Huxley is Post-doctoral Research Fellow in the School of Political Science, University of New South Wales, specialising in strategic studies and international politics. Professor Gavin Jones is head of the Department of Demography, Research School of Social Sciences, Australian National University. Lee Poh Ping is Associate Professor in the Faculty of Economics and Administration, University of Malaya. Professor Sheldon W. Simon is head of the Department of Political Science, Arizona State University. Dr Carlyle A. Thayer is Senior Lecturer, Department of Politics, University of New South Wales, Australian Defence Force Academy. Dr Rodney Tiffen is Senior Lecturer, Department of Government, University of Sydney. Dr Amina Tyabji is Senior Lecturer, Department of Economics and Statistics, National University of Singapore.

xi Abbreviations

AAF ASEAN Automotive Federation ACCRIS ASEAN Co-ordinating Committee for the Reconstruction and Rehabilitation of Indonesia ACPL ASEAN Cableship Private Limited ACPHP ASEAN Crops Post Harvest Program AFC ASEAN Finance Corporation AFSR ASEAN Food Security Reserve AIC ASEAN Industrial Complementation AIC ASEAN Insurance Commissioners AIJV(s) ASEAN Industrial Joint Venture(s) AlP ASEAN Industrial Project( s) AJDC ASEAN-Japan Development Corporation ANS Armee Nationale Sihanoukiste!Sihanoukienne ASCOPE ASEAN Council on Petroleum ASA Association of Southeast Asia A SEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations ATIC ASEAN Tourist Information Centre AWGIG ASEAN Working Group on Industrial Complementation AWGTM ASEAN Working Group on Tax Matters BAAIC Basic Agreement on AIC BAAIJV Basic Agreement on AIJV(s) COFAB ASEAN Committee on Finance and Banking COFAF ASEAN Committee on Food, Agriculture and Forestry COIME ASEAN Committee on Industry, Minerals and Energy COST ASEAN Committee on Science and Technology CGDK Coalition Government of Democratic Kampuchea DFI Direct Foreign Investment DK Democratic Kampuchea DRVN Democratic Republic of Vietnam EEZ Exclusive Economic Zone ESCAP Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific FOPA Five power Defence arrangement

xii Abbreviations xiii

GAIT General Agreement on Tarriffs and Trade GSI Generalised System of Preferences HMI Islamic Students' Association (Indonesia) IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (World Bank) ICK International Conference on Kampuchea IMF International Monetary Fund JIM Jakarta Informal Meeting JSDF Japan Self-Defence Force KPNLF Khmer People's National Liberation Front LDC Less Developed Country MAPHILINDO Malaysia, Philippines and Indonesia MAS Malaysian Airline System NAM Non-Aligned Movement NEP New Economic Policy (Malaysia) NFLSVN National Front for the Liberation of South Vietnam NIC Newly Industrialised Country NGO Non-Governmental Organisation NU Nahdatul Ulama (Indonesia) PAS Pan-Malay Islamic Party (Malaysia) PRKAF People's Republic of Kampuchea Armed Forces PAVN People's Army of Vietnam (also VPA) PLA People's Liberation Army (China) PRGRSVN Provisional Revolutionary Government of the Republic of South Vietnam PRK People's Republic of Kampuchea PTA Preferential Trading Arrangements RVN Republic of Vietnam SEANWFZ Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapon Free Zone SEATO Southeast Asia Treaty Organisation SCOT ASEAN Sub-Committee on Tourism SRV Socialist Republic of Vietnam UMNO United Malays National Organisation (Malaysia) UN IDO UN Industrial Development Organisation VPA Vietnam People's Army ZOPFAN Zone of Peace Freedom and Neutrality (A SEAN) ZOPIGN Zone of Peace Independence and Genuine Neutrality (Vietnam)