Brokers Call 11 June 2021

Summary Of Brokers Calls Company CMP Call Target AUD By

ALU $34.71 Outperform $42.00 Credit Suisse

ARB $45.48 Buy $45.95 Citi

BHP $48.30 Outperform $61.00 Macquarie

BLD $6.83 Neutral $6.60 Credit Suisse

BSL $22.12 neutral to outperform $25.40 Macquarie

CIA $6.71 Outperform $11.00 Macquarie

CRN $0.83 Neutral $0.80 Macquarie

DMP $114.05 Underperform $70.71 Credit Suisse

DRR $4.37 Outperform $5.50 Macquarie

DXS $10.95 Neutral $10.85 Macquarie

FMG $22.83 Outperform $27.00 Macquarie

IEL $22.71 Buy $29.05 UBS

1.Credit Suisse rates ALU as Outperform

A high offer from Autodesk to acquire has driven up the company's target price, with Credit Suisse saying the offer suggests Altium's ability to attract future partnerships and strategic arrangements.

Autodesk's offer of $38.50 implies a valuation of 21x revenue for FY21 and 56x underlying earnings. The broker notes this sits at the very high end of corporate valuation metrics and wouldn't rule out a higher offer.

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price increases to $42.00 from $35.00. Brokers Call 11 June 2021

2.Citi rates ARB as Buy While Citi expects strong trading conditions to continue over 2021, the broker thinks the market may under-appreciate ARB’s longer term growth potential.

The broker also expects export sales, which has been going from strength to strength, to be supported by the company’s recent acquisition of Truckman in the UK, and the company has reduced its payout to invest in future growth.

Buy rating and target price of $45.95 remain unchanged. 3.Macquarie rates BHP as Outperform Macquarie upgrades earnings forecasts across its iron ore coverage after incorporating a material increase to iron ore price forecasts.

BHP Group's earnings estimates rise 11% and 27% for FY21 and FY22, respectively. Medium-term earnings for BHP Group also benefit from an upgrade to long-term hard coking (metallurgical) coal price estimates.

Outperform retained. Target rises to $61 from $57. 4.Credit Suisse rates BLD as Neutral has provided underlying earnings guidance for FY21 of $340-450m, 5% below consensus, as well as further detail into the $300m transformation targets. Based on updated information Credit Suisse has modeled Boral's Australian transformation benefits. The broker forecasts relatively flat underlying earnings for FY20- 21 despite attributed net transformation benefits totaling $75m and a prior period one-off of $85m. A revised property valuation of $850m compared to previous $525m has also influenced an increased valuation.

5.Macquarie rates BSL as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral

Macquarie has upgraded its outlook, expecting US steel prices will stay around current levels over the third quarter and any moderation subsequently will be mild.

The broker expects earnings momentum should be strong in the short term and considers the risk/reward balance has improved for BlueScope Steel.

As a result, the rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral and the target raised to $25.40 from $23.90. Brokers Call 11 June 2021

6.Macquarie rates CIA as Outperform Macquarie upgrades iron ore price forecasts which transforms the earnings outlook for Australian iron ore producers. Champion Iron offers the greatest leverage to movements in iron ore prices and the broker lifts FY22 estimates by 46% and FY23 by 78%.

The boost to long-term price forecasts drives a 133% lift to the FY26 earnings estimate. Outperform maintained. Target is raised to $11 from $8.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $6.71 Difference: $4.29 7.Macquarie rates CRN as Neutral Macquarie assesses multiples remain attractive for coal miners and upgrades to metallurgical coal price forecasts drive material increases to earnings estimates. Coronado Global's earnings estimates increase 9% for 2021.

The broker retains a Neutral rating and raises the target to $0.80 from $0.60. The increase in long-term metallurgical coal price forecasts means material upgrades of more than 100% from 2026 onwards.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.83 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).

8.Credit Suisse rates DMP as Underperform Australian web traffic for Domino's Pizza has slowed, but continued strong growth in Europe suggests some permanency in that market according to Credit Suisse.

Both Japan and Europe reported 21% year-on-year increase to web traffic during the first five months of FY21's second half, while was up just 1% on the weak corresponding period in FY20.

Based on results the broker downgrades like-for-like sales assumptions for Australia and New Zealand to 4% and increases assumptions for Japan to 10%, while Europe remains at 8%.

The broker reduces new net stores forecast for Australia and New Zealand to 12 from 25 and reduces Japan to 65 from 75, while Europe store openings are increased to 60 from 55.

The Underperform rating is retained and the target price decreases marginally to $70.71 from $71.11. Brokers Call 11 June 2021

9.Macquarie rates DRR as Outperform Macquarie upgrades iron ore price forecasts which transforms the earnings outlook for Australian iron ore producers.

Deterra Royalties' royalty-based earnings offer lower leverage to iron ore price movements compared with the miners so upgrades to estimates are lower, at 11% for FY21 and 24% for FY22.

Outperform maintained. Target rises to $5.50 from $4.80

10.Macquarie rates DXS as Neutral

Dexus will acquire a stake in Australian Unity Healthcare Property Trust, investing $180m as part of the trust's $320m equity raising. This represents a 7% equity interest.

Macquarie assesses the acquisition compliments the company's strategy of increasing exposure to the healthcare sector.

Implications for earnings over the short term are limited, the broker adds, and similar to the acquisition of APN funds will need to demonstrate strategic growth to justify the price. Neutral maintained. Target is $10.85.

11.Macquarie rates FMG as Outperform

Macquarie makes significant upgrades to iron ore price forecasts which transforms the earnings outlook for Australian iron ore producers. Preferences remain unchanged, although Fortescue Metals has closed the gap to the other majors.

Incorporating the upgrade means earnings estimates rise 8% and 21% for FY21 and FY22, respectively. Forecasts incorporate a slightly wider discount for lower grade ore than previously assumed.

Outperform maintained. Target rises to $27 from $23. Brokers Call 11 June 2021

12.UBS rates IEL as Buy While initial indications in India suggest a likely near-term drag on IPD Education's 2H21 earnings, UBS believes this represents deferred, not lost revenue, with the ability to recoup in 1H22.

Meanwhile, the broker note, delays in reopening the Australian border will likely impact the seasonally strongest March 2022 intake and the trajectory of the recovery beyond.

Based on its current thesis, UBS expects IDP to emerge a stronger player, leveraging technology to differentiate itself relative to the long-tail of bricks and mortar student placement businesses.

Buy rating is maintained with the target lowered to $28.25 from $29.05. Brokers Call 11 June 2021

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