The Oceans and Climate Change

by Al Trujillo

Source of most figures: Essentials of Oceanography 11th Edition Trujillo and Thurman © 2014 Pearson Education Al Trujillo’s Home Page: http://www2.palomar.edu/users/atrujillo The Climate Change Game: One Game for Each Group • Identify the statements in the envelope as either “True” or “False” by discussing them with your group • Place each statement in the appropriate circle

• We’ll answer these statements and more today About This Presentation

• Questions encouraged • Only 10 graphs • A few things to keep track of: . What are the answers to the Climate Change Game Cards? . Selected graphs: What are the graphs telling you? Marine Ecologist and NOAA Chief Administrator Jane Lubchenco (2009) “Human-induced climate change is a reality, not only in remote polar regions and in small tropical islands, but everyplace around the country, in our own backyards. It’s happening. It’s happening now. It’s not just a problem for the future. We are beginning to see its impacts in our daily lives… More than that, humans are responsible for the changes that we are seeing, and our actions now will determine the extent of future change and the severity of the impacts.” Global Warming vs. Climate Change Global Warming • Warming of Earth’s surface temperatures • Recent warming implied to be human-caused Climate Change • A significant and lasting change in global long-term average weather conditions • Includes global warming • Broader changes in long-term average weather (hotter, colder, dryer, wetter) • Changes in extreme weather events

Accepting the Science: Facts About Climate Change

• Humans are adding vast amounts of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere • These human-caused emissions are causing Earth’s climate to change • Recent climate changes are NOT driven by any natural cycle • Scientists have well-documented evidence that rapid climate changes are occurring now Is There Scientific Consensus on Climate Change?

Ref: Doran and Zimmerman (2009) Examining the Scientific Consensus on Climate Change Eos Trans. AGU v. 90, no. 103, pg. 22-23 Scientific Consensus on Climate Change

http://theconsensusproject.com/ Scientific Consensus on Climate

Change: 9136 Agree, 1 Disagrees =

(human -caused) The IPCC Reports Video: 25 years of the IPCC

• In 5 reports over 25 years, thousands of leading experts around the globe have affirmed the reality of human-caused warming • No longer as a prediction, but as an observational fact • “By adding emissions to the atmosphere, humans are producing significant impacts on physical and biological systems worldwide” The US National Climate Assessment • Issued by the White House in May 2014 • Collaboration by our best experts on climate science • Links severe weather events such as heat waves and flooding to climate change • “The observed warming and other climatic changes are triggering wide-ranging impacts in every region of our country and throughout our economy” Science December 2004 Consensus? • Broad consensus of major scientific organizations: IPCC, NAS, AMS, AGU, AAAS • Scientific consensus clearly established by 1993 • Has not changed since then Doubters? Skeptics? Deniers? • It’s one thing to doubt something is true • It’s also not a bad thing to be a skeptic... • A denier is defined as “A person who refuses to accept that some- thing unpleasant or painful is true” – ex: “The terminally ill Former skeptic patient is still in Richard Muller and denial.” BEST Website Three Choices

1. Become an expert 2. Accept the vast majority of expert opinion 3. Accept a tiny minority What more proof do you need? So…Why Don’t Americans Believe Global Warming Is Happening?

According to Harvard psychologist Dan Gilbert, the problem with global warming is that it… • lacks an identifiable face (ex: terrorism) • doesn’t violate our moral sensibilities (ex: animal abuse or gay marriage) • is not a threat to our present situation (our brains are wired to protect us here and now) • produces gradual changes not sudden enough to make people care Accuracy of News Reports

• “The green energy stuff– I mean, that’s–that’s all a hoax and a fraud based on another hoax and fraud, global warming.” —Fox News Channel, 3/23/12 • “I thought we were getting warmer. But in the ‘70s, it was, look out, we’re all going to freeze.” —Fox News Channel, 4/11/12 Accuracy of News Reports

• “We are in the middle of what you might call a global warming bubble. It is a failure of the global warming theory itself and of the credibility of its advocates…” Wall Street Journal column, 3/9/12 • “The lack of any statistically significant warming for over a decade…” Wall Street Journal op-ed, 5/27/12 What Are the Objections to Accepting Global Warming?

• No ‘consensus’ (scientists are divided) • No ‘proof’ (science is uncertain) • If warming is happening, it’s not human- caused (it’s part of a natural cycle) • It’s not a bad thing that Earth’s climate is changing; plants and animals can easily adapt • Controlling greenhouse gas emissions would destroy the U.S. economy Global Economy Already Affected by Climate Change Global Warming: How it Works Do Volcanoes Produce More Carbon Dioxide than Humans? Carbon Dioxide in the Atmosphere

Current CO2 level = 400 ppm Ralph Keeling on Carbon Dioxide in the Atmosphere

YouTube Video: Crossing 400: The Keeling Curve Reaches a Historic Milestone Atmosphere Composition & Temp: The Hockey Stick Graph

Source: Brook, E. Paleoclimate: Windows on the greenhouse Nature 453, 291-292 (15 May 2008) Global Surface Air Temperature Warming of the Land and Oceans Variation in the Sun’s Energy

Sunspots

Magnetic storms What Other Observed Changes are Occurring on Earth?

Ref: The Scientific Guide to Global Warming Skepticism (2010) www.skepticalscience.com Observed Ocean Changes Occurring Now: Increasing Ocean Acidity

The pH Scale

Increased CO2 in atmosphere  dissolves in ocean  forms carbonic acid  makes ocean more acidic Measuring Ocean Acidity & Reduced Size of Marine Organisms Grown in Acidic Waters Current and Projected Ocean pH Examples of Organisms Affected by Increasing Ocean Acidity

Pteropods after 6 weeks in acidic seawater A Solution?: The Iron Hypothesis

• Removes carbon dioxide from the atmosphere by using iron to increase ocean productivity Other solutions from the Consensus Project: http://theconsensusproject.com/ Let’s Return to the Climate Change Game Climate Change: Selected Sites

• Real Climate Science: http://www.realclimate.org/

• Skeptical Science: http://skepticalscience.com/

My Own 3 Reasons for Hope

1. Most natural disasters give us little or no warning; climate change is gradual, so we have time to mitigate and adapt 2. Americans can do amazing things when we are faced with a challenge 3. If you learned something new today about this important topic, I encourage you to share this information with colleagues, friends, family, neighbors, others… The Oceans and Climate Change by Al Trujillo End

This presentation is available online at Al Trujillo’s Home Page: http://www2.palomar.edu/users/atrujillo