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Alaska Housing Market Indicators

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Alaska Housing Market Indicators Alaska Housing Market Indicators Spring 2009 Prepared for Alaska Housing Finance Corporation Dan Fauske Chief Executive Officer/Executive Director Prepared by Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development Research and Analysis Section Sean Parnell, Governor Commissioner Click Bishop Brynn Keith, Research and Analysis Chief Jeff Hadland, Economist Caroline Schultz, Economist Acknowledgment We wish to thank the primary and secondary mortgage lenders listed below for responding to our quarterly survey of mortgage loan activity and for their willingness to continue to participate in future surveys: Alaska Home Mortgage Alaska Housing Finance Corporation Alaska Pacific Bank Alaska USA Federal Credit Union AUMC Mortgage Company Denali State Bank Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae) First Bank of Ketchikan First National Bank of Alaska GMAC Homestate Mortgage Mt. McKinley Mutual Savings Bank Residential Mortgage Rural Development (formerly USDA Farmers Home Administration) Tlingit-Haida Regional Housing Authority Vista Mortgage Wells Fargo Home Mortgage This list includes the major government and private providers of mortgage funds in Alaska, as well as the names of subsidiary companies for which data have been reported by the parent company. Some of the participants are primary mortgage lenders. That means they originate loans to keep in their own portfolios or sell them to participants in the secondary mortgage market. Institutions such as Alaska Housing Finance Corporation and Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae) operate in the secondary mortgage market, purchasing mortgages originated by primary lenders. Alaska Housing Market Indicators, Spring 2009 Page i Table of Contents Acknowledgment............................................................................................................ i Table of Contents .......................................................................................................... ii Alaska Housing Market Scorecard ............................................................................. iii Overall Total Loan Activity ....................................................................................... 4 Single-Family Homes ............................................................................................... 5 Condominiums ......................................................................................................... 6 Multi-Family Activity ................................................................................................. 7 New vs. Existing Construction .................................................................................. 8 Employment and Wages .......................................................................................... 9 Alaska Affordability ................................................................................................ 10 National Affordability .............................................................................................. 11 Alaska Housing Market Indicators, Spring 2009 Page ii Alaska Housing Market Scorecard First and second quarters, 2009 The average interest rate fell Mortgage Interest 162 basis points from the Rates first half of 2008. The rate 30-Year Fixed 4.2% continues to be lower than the 10-year average of 6.0. The reported number of Number of Loans single-family and Single-Family and condominium loans fell 21.6 Condominium percent year-over-year and 3,661 is at its lowest level since the first half of 2000. The average sales price for Sales Price single-family homes rose Appreciation slightly in the first half of Single-Family Homes 1.1% 2009 compared to a year ago. Alaska Affordability The index fell from the first Index half of 2008’s value of 1.56 Single-Family Homes to its lowest value since 1.28 1993. Lowest Highest The score for the current quarter is based on the ratio of the current value to the historical value for the data set. Alaska Housing Market Indicators, Spring 2009 Page iii Alaska Quarterly Survey of Mortgage Lending Activity The Alaska Quarterly Survey of Mortgage Lending Activity summarizes total loan activity reported by participating lenders. These lenders include the major government and private providers of mortgage funds in Alaska, as well as subsidiary companies for which the parent company reported data. Changes in loan activity over time may be affected not only by changes in the market but also by changes in the list of lenders participating. Some of the participants in the survey are primary mortgage lenders. Primary mortgage lenders originate loans to keep in their own portfolios or sell them to participants in the secondary mortgage market. Institutions such as Alaska Housing Finance Corporation and Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae) operate in the secondary mortgage market, purchasing mortgages originated by primary lenders. Secondary mortgage activity is an important source of liquidity for primary mortgage lending. Although primary lenders and secondary purchasers differ, both provide financing for Alaskans to purchase housing. For the purposes of this report, maintaining the distinction is not particularly important. Therefore, references to "lenders" include both primary lenders and some secondary purchasers. Unless the difference is critical to the discussion, no distinctions are made. Overall Total Loan Activity Total lending activity fell statewide in the first half of 2009 compared to one year earlier. This includes the number, loan dollar volume, and sales volume of loans. The average sales price for both single-family homes and condos rose slightly, while the average price of a multi-family unit fell. The average loan-to-value (LTV) ratio increased 0.8 percentage points over the year, as increases in the average sales prices of single-family homes and condos failed to keep up with the growth in average loan amounts. Statewide wage increases were greater than the inflation rate – 4.2 percent wage growth versus a 1.2 percent increase in Anchorage’s Consumer Price Index (CPI). The average mortgage interest rate decreased over the year, falling from 5.85 percent to a record low of 4.22 percent. Affordability increased slightly during the first half of 2009, rising from historically low levels to historically high levels in half of a year. • Statewide, in the first half of 2009, the average sales price for all surveyed building types combined fell 2.1 percent year-over-year to $266,178. Although the average price of condominium and single-family homes rose slightly, a dramatic drop in the prices of multi-family buildings drove the average price down for all building types. Alaska Housing Market Indicators, Spring 2009 Page 4 • The Ketchikan Gateway Borough had the state’s highest average sales price in the first half of 2009 at $471,217–up 120.1 percent over the first half of 2008 and the only locale with an average price over $300,000. The high price can be attributed to multi-family sales. The Kodiak Island Borough was second at $288,915, which is 20.9 percent higher than the first half of 2008, when Kodiak was the 4th most expensive area. • The state’s lowest average sales price was in the Kenai Peninsula Borough in the first half of 2009. The average there was $225,045. The Fairbanks North Star Borough had the second-lowest average at $227,630. • Average sales prices increased in four of the eight surveyed areas. Prices in Ketchikan Gateway Borough grew 120.1 percent over the year, which was the largest percent increase. After Ketchikan, the Kodiak Island Borough had the next highest rate, increasing 20.9 percent. Kenai Peninsula Borough and Fairbanks North Star Borough average prices increased 2.4 and 1.5 percent respectively. • Prices in the Anchorage Municipality fell 5.1 percent, which was the biggest drop in all areas. Average prices also fell in Matanuska-Susitna Borough, Juneau Borough and Bethel Census Area. • The total loan dollar volume for all building types combined statewide fell 18.1 percent, or $191.4 million, to $870 billion in the first half of 2009. The average loan amount, based on a total of 2,014 loans, increased 1.1 percent to $233,129. This increase occurred because the number of loans fell by a greater percentage (17.2 percent) than the total loan dollar volume. • The average LTV ratio for all building types combined statewide was 87.6 percent, up from 86.6 percent in the first half of 2008. As a percentage, buyers are putting down smaller down payments in four of the eight surveyed areas than they were in the previous year. • Ketchikan Gateway Borough had the largest change in its average LTV ratio, increasing 35.0 percentage points from 85.6 percent in the first half of 2008 to 50.7 percent one year later. This change is a result of larger-than-usual down- payments on multi-family buildings. • Over half–58.7 percent–of the state’s loan dollar volume occurred in the Municipality of Anchorage. The Matanuska-Susitna Borough had the second largest piece of the lending pie at 15.1 percent. Meanwhile, 9.8 percent of loans were in the Fairbanks North Star Borough. Together, these areas had 83.6 percent of lending activity in the first half of 2009, which are also home to two- thirds of the state’s population. Single-Family Homes • Four out of every five loans in the first half of 2009 were for single-family properties – 3,001 out of 3,718. This share is slightly higher than the 78.8 percent figure for the comparable period one year earlier. Overall, the number
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