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SAFRA Equity Research Earnings Review

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SAFRA Equity Research Earnings Review SAFRA Equity Research Earnings Review ISA CTEEP Utilities 1Q18 results: EBITDA in line with consensus May 15, 2018 Quick view – ISA CTEEP reported regulatory EBITDA of R$623mn (+321% YoY), 33% above TRPL4 Rating Neutral our estimates and in line with consensus. Regulatory bottom line was R$302mn (+248% Price (05/14/2018) R$68.33 YoY), 6.3% above estimated and 32% above consensus. We expect a neutral market 12M Target Price R$73.4 Total Return 7.5% reaction on in line EBITDA with consensus. 1Q18 results –EBITDA beat to our estimates is explained by higher than expected revenues (R$141mn above our estimates) explained by higher RBSE (R$448mn versus R$375mn Kaique Vasconcellos expected). The PMS (Personnel, Material and third-party Services) was ok, increasing 5% +55 11 3175 4369 YoY (versus LTM inflation of 2.68%) driven by consolidation of IEnne. Net debt reached [email protected] R$1.201mn, a reduction of 9.5% versus 4Q17. We have a Neutral rating for ISA CTEEP as we see the company trading at fair levered real IRR of 7.9% and the main catalyst for the stock is the potential increase in dividends distribution. ISA CTEEP – 1Q18 Results (R$ million, regulatory) 1Q18A 1Q18E Var. % 1Q18E Var. % 4Q17A Var QoQ % 1Q17A Var YoY % Safra Consensus Net Revenues 696 594 17.1% 632 10.0% 551 26.2% 254 174.3% EBITDA 559 451 24.0% 455 23.0% 470 19.1% 107 423.4% EBITDA Margin 80% 76% 85% 42% D&A (147) (25) (148) (18) Financial Results (32) (32) 22 (30) Equity Income 1 12 4 13 Pre-tax Income 382 406 348 72 Taxes (145) (131) (117) (11) Minorities (4) (5) (4) (5) Net Income 233 270 -13.9% 277 -16.1% 227 2.6% 55 321.4% Source: Company, Bloomberg and Safra 1 SAFRA Equity Research Earnings Review Safra Analysis – R$ Million ISA CTEEP P&L Regulatory 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E YoY Growth Rates 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E Net Revenye 1,778 2,469 2,572 2,668 2,803 Net Revenye 86.2% 38.9% 4.2% 3.7% 5.0% Operating Expenses (445) (542) (563) (586) (609) EBITDA 191.1% 44.7% 4.2% 3.6% 5.3% EBITDA 1,333 1,928 2,009 2,083 2,194 EBIT 153.4% 82.4% 4.4% 3.7% 5.5% EBITDA margin 75.0% 78.1% 78.1% 78.0% 78.3% Reported Net Profit 169.0% 89.6% 3.1% 0.8% 3.1% D&A (331) (101) (102) (104) (106) EBIT 1,002 1,827 1,907 1,978 2,087 Valuation EBIT Margin 56.4% 74.0% 74.1% 74.1% 74.5% EV/EBITDA 9.4 6.5 6.2 6.0 5.7 Financial Result (66) (130) (163) (236) (306) P/E 18.3 9.6 9.4 9.3 9.0 Equity Income 18 49 55 67 80 P/B 1.02 1.01 1.00 0.99 0.98 Pre Tax Profit 954 1,746 1,799 1,810 1,862 Dividend Yield 5.2% 8.8% 9.3% 9.8% 10.0% Taxes (319) (559) (574) (574) (587) DPS 3.55 6.03 6.39 6.72 6.85 Minorities (20) (21) (21) (22) (23) EPS IFRS 15.64 12.06 12.77 13.44 13.70 Reported Net Profit 615 1,167 1,203 1,214 1,251 Payout 23% 50% 50% 50% 50% Balance Sheet (BS) Leverage and BS Metrics Cash and Equivalents 617 866 1,303 1,046 486 Gross Debt 1,943 2,091 3,129 3,822 3,697 Accounts Receivable - - - - - Net Debt 1,326 1,225 1,827 2,776 3,211 Other Current Assets 2,027 2,028 2,030 2,032 2,033 Net Debt/EBITDA 1.0 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.5 Total Current Assets 2,644 2,894 3,333 3,078 2,519 EBITDA/Net Financial Result 20.2 14.8 12.3 8.8 7.2 Long-Term Assets 12,667 12,813 12,960 13,108 13,258 Permanent Assets 1,941 2,399 3,062 4,031 4,468 Company Data Total Assets 17,252 18,106 19,355 20,217 20,245 Allowed Revenue (RAP) 2,585 2,763 2,903 3,050 3,202 Suppliers 70 65 66 69 72 Short-Term Debt 451 486 727 888 859 Other Current Liabilities 268 806 863 922 949 Total Current Liabilities 789 1,356 1,655 1,879 1,881 Long-Term Debt 451 486 727 888 859 Other Long Term Liabilities 4,812 4,891 5,447 5,818 5,751 Total Long Term Liabilities 5,263 5,377 6,174 6,706 6,610 Minorities 215 215 215 215 215 Shareholders' Equity 10,985 11,159 11,310 11,417 11,540 Total Liabilities 17,252 18,106 19,355 20,217 20,245 Free Cash Flow Statement Net Income 615 1,167 1,203 1,214 1,251 Depreciation 331 101 102 104 106 Change in Debt 933 148 1,039 693 (125) Changes in working capital 129 (12) (2) 6 7 Cash from investing activities (249) (518) (680) (873) (451) SEFAZ (pension fund) (162) (145) (147) (148) (150) Dividends Cash Out (135) (450) (993) (1,052) (1,107) Investments - (41) (85) (200) (92) Others (1,186) - - - - Change in Cash 276 249 437 (256) (561) Source: Company and Safra 2 SAFRA Equity Research Earnings Review IMPORTANT GENERAL DISCLOSURES This report is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute or should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument or to participate in any particular trading strategy in any jurisdiction. The information herein is believed to be reliable as of the date on which this report was issued and has been obtained from public sources believed to be reliable. J.Safra Corretora or any of its subsidiaries and affiliates does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the completeness, reliability or accuracy of such information, nor is this report intended to be a complete statement or summary of the securities, markets or developments referred to herein. J. Safra Corretora has no obligation to update, modify or amend this report and informs the reader accordingly, except when terminating coverage of the companies discussed in the report. Opinions, estimates, information and projections expressed herein constitute the current judgment of the analyst responsible for the substance of this report as of the date in which it was issued and are therefore subject to change without notice. Prices and availability of financial instruments are indicative only and subject to change without notice. The financial instruments discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. This report does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular investor. Investors should obtain independent financial advice based on their own particular circumstances before making an investment decision on the basis of the information contained herein. If a financial instrument is denominated in a currency other than an investor’s currency, a change in exchange rates may adversely affect the price or value of, or the income derived from, the financial instrument, and the reader of this report assumes any currency risk. Income from financial instruments may vary and its price or value, either directly or indirectly, may rise or fall. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results, and no representation or warranty express or implied, is made herein regarding future performances. Safra Group does not accept any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect, consequential claim, cost, loss or expense arising from any use of this report or its content. This report may not be reproduced, published or redistributed to any other person, in whole or in part, for any purpose, without the prior written consent of J.Safra Corretora. Additional information regarding the financial instruments discussed in this report is available upon request. 3 SAFRA Equity Research Earnings Review ANALYST CERTIFICATION The analyst responsible for the production of this report hereby represents that the views expressed herein accurately and exclusively reflect his or her personal views and opinions about any and all of the subject companies or securities and were prepared independently and autonomously, including from J. Safra Corretora. Because the personal views of analysts may differ from one another, J. Safra Corretora, its subsidiaries and affiliates may have issued or may issue reports that are inconsistent with, and/or reach different conclusions from, the information presented herein An analyst’s compensation is based upon total revenues of J. Safra Corretora, a portion of which is generated through investment banking activities. Like all employees of J. Safra Corretora, its subsidiaries and affiliates, analysts receive compensation that is impacted by overall profitability. For this reason, analyst’s compensation can be considered to be indirectly related to this report. However, the analyst responsible for the content of this report hereby represents that no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to any specific recommendation or views contained herein or linked to the pricing of any of the securities discussed herein. IMPORTANT INFOMATION ABOUT SAFRA J.Safra Corretora and/or affiliates declare that: Have significant financial and commercial relation with the following company(ies): AES Tietê; Alupar; Azul; B2W Digital; Braskem; CBD; CCR; Cemig; Cesp; Copasa; Copel; Cosan Logística; CSN; CTEEP; Cyrela; Duratex; Ecorodovias; Eletropaulo; Embraer; Energias do Brasil; Energisa; Engie Brasil; Equatorial; Estácio; Even; Eztec; Fleury; Gerdau; Gerdau Metalúrgica; Gol; Helbor; Hypermarcas; Iguatemi; Iochpe-Maxion; Itaú; Itaúsa; Kroton; Localiza; Locamerica; Lojas Renner; Mahle Metal Leve; Marcopolo; Movida; MRV; Qualicorp; Randon; Rumo; Sabesp; Ser Educacional; TAESA; Tecnisa; Tegma; Telefônica; Tim; Tupy; Usiminas; Vale; Via Varejo; Weg.
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    Appendix: Assessing Corporate Efforts to Address Forced Labor Risks in the Supply Chains of the Paper and Forestry and Home Furnishing Retail Sectors (November 2019) KnowTheChain assessed 39 of the largest publicly listed companies in the paper and forestry and home furnishing retail sectors across ten indicators on their efforts to address forced labor risks in their supply chains. The indicators are a subset of the full KnowTheChain benchmark methodology and reflect the key areas of the UN Guiding Principles on Business and Human Rights: policy commitment, due diligence, and remedy. Company Disclosure by Indicator 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Supplier Code of Conduct and Integration into Supplier 59% Contract Management and Accountability 13% Stakeholder Engagement 0% Supply Chain Transparency 0% Risk Assessment 8% Purchasing Practices 3% Recruitment Fees 8% Freedom of Association 0% Grievance Mechanism 23% Remedy Programs 5% The graphic captures the percentage of companies disclosing at least some information on each of the indicators. Overall, disclosure is poor. • Policies: While 59% of companies disclose a supplier code of conduct that includes the ILO core labor standards (i.e., protects the right to freedom of association and collective bargaining, and prohibits discrimination, child labor, and forced labor), only 8% of companies include provisions that prohibit worker-paid recruitment fees. • Due Diligence: Only 8% of companies disclose undertaking a supply chain risk assessment that includes forced labor risks, and only 3% disclose the risks of forced labor in different tiers of their supply chains. • Remedy: Only 5% of companies have a process for responding to the complaints and/or reported violations of their supplier code of conduct.
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