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SM Entertainment (041510) Earnings Preview

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SM Entertainment (041510) Earnings Preview January 22, 2014 Equity Research SM Entertainment (041510) Earnings Preview Kicking Off the Year with “Something” 4Q13 preview: sales +19%, OP +8% YoY BUY SM Entertainment should report 4Q13 sales of W55.0bn (+19.3% YoY) and OP of W15.3bn (+8.5%), largely in line with its earnings I TP (12M): W57,500 (↑) I CP (Jan. 21): W46,450 guidance if excluding the impact of yen depreciation. Key events reflected in 4Q13 results include SM Town Tokyo concerts (100K audience), TVXQ’s Live Tour in Nissan Stadium (150K), Super Key Data Consensus Data Junior’s Tokyo Dome concerts (100K), SM Town China concerts KOSDAQ (pt) 520.99 2013 2014 (70K) and SM Town Korea Week concerts (80K). Considering 52 week High/Low(W) 50,600/29,350 Sales (Wbn) 167.1 201.1 investor confidence has gradually recovered on solid 3Q13 results, if Market cap(W bn) 959.1 OP (Wbn) 37.7 50.4 in-line 4Q13 results are confirmed, then earnings concerns should Market cap weight(%) 0.77 NP (Wbn) 30.8 41.7 diminish substantially. Shares out (’000) 20,648.3 EPS (W) 1,489 2,017 60-D avg. daily volume(’000) 295.0 BPS (W) 11,682 13,72 2 Consecutive record releases in 2014 to drive growth 60-D avg. daily value(W bn) 12.4 DPS Est. (W, 2013) 0 Stock Price DY Est. (%, 2013) 0.00 The key term for SM Entertainment in 2014 is albums. While the (W K) SM Entertainment Foreign ownership (%) 13.85 70 company concentrated its efforts in 2013 on album launches for Relative performance (RHS) Major shareholders’ stake (%) 110 EXO exclusively, this year it has scheduled album releases for most 60 Lee Soo Man 21.27 90 of its idol groups, starting with TVXQ’s ‘Something’ on January 1; in 50 Truston Asset Management 8.93 addition, albums for Girls’ Generation, Shinee, Super Junior and 40 70 Performance 1M 6M 12M new idol group SM Rookies are to be launched in 1H14. Based on 30 50 Absolute 7.4 28.1 1.9 albums, SM Entertainment should be able to generate profits from a 13.1 13.4 13.7 13.10 14.1 Relative 0.7 32.0 0.6 variety of sources, such as concerts and TV appearances. With more artists to be active in 2014, additional income should expand; Financial Data (K-IFRS separate) the company is slated to open hologram concerts at COEX Artium 2012 2013 2014F 2015F 2016F this August, and ticket-sales revenue could spur related sales in view Sales Wbn 168.6 168.1 201.1 254.8 280.3 of more targeting of audiences by retail shops and F&B businesses. OP Wbn 47.8 37.1 44.8 63.6 69.9 PTP Wbn 47.6 39.0 46.7 65.5 71.9 Maintain BUY, raise TP to W57,500 NP Wbn 37.2 31.1 36.0 50.4 55.3 EPS W 1,857 1,509 1,743 2,442 2,680 SM Entertainment is expanding its new businesses on the back of Chg % 108.9 (18.8) 15.5 40.1 9.7 the strong competitiveness of its artists. We believe the stock could PER X 24.5 29.3 26.7 19.0 17.3 receive a valuation premium given 1) an expansion of business PBR X 4.4 3.8 3.4 2.9 2.5 areas including TV dramas and show programs, 2) the expansion of EV/EBITDA X 17.0 16.3 13.7 9.4 7.9 businesses targeting Japanese and Chinese visitors, 3) localization ROE % 23.2 13.6 13.8 16.6 15.5 strategies in China and 4) better negotiating power coming from a BPS W 10,394 11,787 13,530 15,972 18,652 strong position in the entertainment industry. We raise our TP to Net DER % (47.6) (50.6) (50.9) (51.2) (51.9) W57,500 based on the stock’s three-year historical P/E average of 33.0x (separate basis). Given that the company has expanded its artist lineup and diversified revenue sources (vs. heavy reliance on TVXQ and Japan revenues in the past) amid now visible China momentum, the stock’s valuation looks undemanding. Analyst Min-jung Kim +822-3771-7526 [email protected] Please see important disclaimers at the end of the report SM Entertainment (041510) Hana Daetoo Securities Research Table 1. Quarterly earnings forecasts (Wbn) 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13F 1Q14F 2Q14F 3Q14F 4Q14F Gross sales 33.2 33.4 46.3 55.1 38.4 37.5 57.7 67.4 YOY(%) (13.6) 3.3 (10.2) 19.3 15.6 12.3 24.7 22.4 QoQ(%) (28.0) 0.6 38.4 19.0 (30.2) (2.3) 53.8 16.7 Domestic 16.2 17.6 18.8 23.3 18.4 18.6 22.1 26.3 Album 4.9 6.3 7.9 7.2 5.4 6.0 9.6 7.8 Music download 1.1 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 Management 10.2 9.8 9.7 14.9 11.7 11.3 11.2 17.1 Overseas 17.1 15.8 27.5 31.7 20.0 19.0 35.6 41.1 Album 4.5 3.1 2.7 3.1 5.0 3.7 6.0 6.9 Music download 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.8 1.0 Management 12.2 12.4 24.0 27.7 14.6 14.8 28.8 33.2 Gross profit 13.9 8.8 17.7 22.7 14.8 14.9 22.6 26.0 Operating cost 6.2 6.6 5.8 7.4 7.4 7.1 8.6 10.5 Operating profit 7.7 2.2 11.9 15.3 7.5 7.8 14.0 15.5 YOY(%) (34.8) (77.7) (0.6) 8.5 (2.7) 249.6 18.3 1.3 QoQ(%) (45.5) (70.9) 431.0 29.2 (51.2) 4.4 79.7 10.6 Margin (%) 23.1 6.7 25.6 27.8 19.5 20.8 24.3 23.0 NP 6.4 2.0 9.9 12.8 6.4 6.6 11.7 12.9 YOY(%) (32.2) (79.4) 18.7 31.6 (0.0) 232.3 17.8 1.3 QoQ(%) (34.2) (68.7) 397.5 28.3 (50.0) 4.2 76.3 10.3 Margin (%) 19.2 6.0 21.5 23.2 16.6 17.7 20.3 19.2 Source: company data, Hana Daetoo Securities Table 2. Yearly earnings forecasts (Wbn) 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F Gross sales 168.6 168.1 201.1 254.8 YOY(%) 53.3 (0.3) 19.7 26.7 QoQ(%) Domestic 65.0 75.9 85.4 107.3 Album 22.3 26.3 28.8 37.3 Music download 6.4 5.0 5.3 11.0 Management 36.3 44.6 51.3 59.0 Overseas 103.6 92.1 115.7 147.5 Album 23.3 13.5 21.6 34.6 Music download 4.1 2.4 2.7 3.2 Management 76.2 76.2 91.4 109.7 Gross profit 68.6 63.1 78.4 98.9 Operating cost 20.8 26.0 33.5 35.3 Operating profit 47.8 37.1 44.8 63.6 YOY(%) 133.3 (22.4) 20.9 41.9 QoQ(%) Margin (%) 28.4 22.1 22.3 25.0 NP 37.2 31.1 36.0 50.4 YOY(%) 125.5 (16.4) 15.9 40.1 QoQ(%) Margin (%) 22.1 18.5 17.9 19.8 Source: company data, Hana Daetoo Securities 2 SM Entertainment (041510) Hana Daetoo Securities Research Rating & Target Price Changes SM Entertainment Date Rating Target Price (W) (W) 14.1.22 BUY 57,500 SM Entertainment Target Price 80,000 13.12.24 BUY 53,000 60,000 13.11.25 BUY 53,000 40,000 13.11.24 BUY 53,000 20,000 13.11.4 BUY 53,000 0 13.10.24 BUY 53,000 12.1 12.4 12.7 12.10 13.1 13.4 13.7 13.10 14.1 13.9.17 BUY 53,000 13.5.14 BUY 53,000 Hana Daetoo Securities Rating Definitions Stock ratings for the next twelve months Sector ratings for the next twelve months BUY_ Target Price implies at least 15% upside potential Overweight_ Sector index implies at least 15% upside potential Neutral_ Target Price implies less than 15% upside or downside potential Neutral_ Sector index implies less than 15% upside or downside potential Reduce_ Target Price implies at least 15% downside potential Underweight_ Sector index implies at least 15% downside potential Compliance Notice/Disclaimer • As of Jan 22, 2014, Hana Daetoo Securities does not own over 1% of the outstanding shares of the company covered in this report. • This report accurately reflects the research analyst’s personal views and was written without any undue external influence or interference, and no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by that analyst in the report. • As of Jan 22, 2014, the analyst does not own any shares of the company covered in this report. • As of Jan 22, 2014, this report was not provided in advance to an institutional investor or other third party.
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