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University of Nairobi Past and Future Climate Trends

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University of Nairobi Past and Future Climate Trends UNIVERSITY OF NAIROBI PAST AND FUTURE CLIMATE TRENDS, IMPACTS OF CHARCOAL PRODUCTION AND ADAPTATION OPTIONS FOR LOWER JUBBA OF SOMALIA Thematic Area Climate Risk Management and Food Security By Linda Ajuang Ogallo Reg No. I85/90741/2013 Institute for Climate Change and Adaptation A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Award of the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Climate Change and Adaptation 2018 DECLARATION I declare that this thesis is my original work and has not been submitted elsewhere for examination, award of a degree or publication. Where other people’s work or my own work has been used, this has properly been acknowledged and reference in accordance with the University of Nairobi’s requirements. Signature: ………………………….. Date: ………………………….. Linda Ajuang Ogallo This proposal has been submitted to the Institute for Climate Change and Adaptation (ICCA) in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of the Doctor of Philosophy in Climate Change and Adaptation, of the University of Nairobi with our approval as supervisors. Dr Gilbert O. Ouma Senior Lecturer Institute of Climate Change and Adaptation University of Nairobi, PO Box 30197-00100, Nairobi, Kenya Signature: ………………………….. Date: ………………………….. Dr Philip A. Omondi Senior Researcher IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Centre University of Nairobi, PO Box 30197-00100, Nairobi, Kenya Signature: ………………………….. Date: ………………………….. Prof Gordon O. Wayumba Associate Professor School of Surveying and Geospatial Sciences, The Technical University of Kenya, P.O. Box 52428-00200, Nairobi Signature: ………………………….. Date: ………………………….. ii DEDICATION To quote Maya Angelou, one isn't necessarily born with courage, but one is born with potential. Without courage, we cannot practice any other virtue with consistency. This thesis is dedicated to my friends and family for their endless love and support, giving me the courage to be consistent in my pursuit of higher education. To my late grandmothers, for not letting society define you and showing me how to be strong. To my father for your never ending support, for not letting me make excuses and slack off, I would not have gotten this far without you. To my mother for your constant “glass half full” encouragement, for always being positive in my moments of discouragements, thank you. To my sister for being my sounding board, for listening to me, encouraging me, reasoning with me, and giving me feedback whenever I needed it, thank you. To all my friends for your constant encouragement, and consistently checking on me in my moments of isolation, thank you. To all who gave me a word of encouragement, urged me on, said a prayer for me, I cannot possible mention you all, but I thank you. iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would first like to acknowledge my lead supervisor Dr Gilbert Ouma for being a calm and sound voice through my many moments of anxiety throughout this journey. I thank you for your time, ideas and guidance that made my PhD experience very positive. I would also like to acknowledge Dr Philip Omondi for all the time you took to teach and guide me throughout my journey, for going out of your way to keep me accountable in completing the work, for diligently reading and quickly responding to my work and giving numerous ideas that were invaluable to my progress. I would also like to acknowledge my other supervisor Prof Gordon Wayumba for convincing me to begin this journey, for the hours you sat with me and guided me through this entire process, particularly in the area of remote sensing. The members of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) contributed greatly to my work, IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Centre gave the data for climate analysis, and in particular Kenneth Mwangi for support with the GIS analysis and Herbert Misiani with the R software. IGAD SFO for facilitating my field visit, coordinating with the Jubbaland administration to ensure I had access to transport and security for my field work, and in particular Mohamed Mursal. AMISOM for the high-resolution imagery that was integral to my study. To the Jubbaland Administration for allowing me access to conduct my field work and being willing and available to answer all my questions, in particular Hon. Abdirashid Jire for coordinating all the logistics for my field work, to Rashid Dakane for assisting me in coordinating my survey and being my guide when collecting my ground-truthing data. To Hon. Amb. Gamal Hassan for all your assistance in aid of my research. iv ABSTRACT Climate is changing at an alarming rate threatening the critical pillars for environmental, social and economic development. Somalia is one of the countries of the GHA that has faced unique climate variability and climate change challenges, within severe conflict environment. Charcoal production is causing serious land cover changes that could have far reaching socio- economic implications. The objective of this study was to examine the past and future climate trends and understand the impacts of charcoal production and the adaptation options for communities in Lower Jubba. Rainfall and temperature data extended from 1981-2012. The data were subjected to various statistical analyses including trend analysis. Analysis of land cover changes in Lower Jubba was done using remotely sensed data from Landsat imagery. Different images from 1993/95, 2000 and 2014 were analysed and compared. Information on the role of charcoal for the communities in Lower Jubba was collected through a survey. Descriptive, multiple univariate and multivariate analyses was done on the primary data. The future climate change scenarios for Lower Jubba region was studied using the downscaled CORDEX RCMs data available at ICPAC for both the historical and future period of 1950 – 2005 and 2006 – 2100 respectively, targeting the projected periods of 2030, 2050 and 2070. Possible societal impacts of the future climate for Lower Jubba of Somalia were assessed based on the results from analysis of projected climate data. The results showed high degree of inter- annual variability of rainfall with recurrences in high/low value extremes that are often associated with floods/droughts. Some of them occurred during El Niño/La Niña years when the observed rainfall and temperature anomalies seemed to have extended over most of Somalia. Results showed a 50% reduction in forest cover and a 17% reduction in woodlands between 1993/95 and 2014. If business continues as usual with deforestation, the area could face complete deforestation in the future. A survey on the community’s perspectives showed that the rapid deforestation in Lower Jubba was primarily due to charcoal production. The survey linked most of the local socioeconomic challenges to climate change. Limited adaptation practices were found in the study area. The projected rainfall anomalies over Lower Jubba indicated dominance of meteorological drought in 2030. Significant increase in rainfall was exhibited in 2050 and 2070. Evidence of trend increase in minimum and maximum temperature was observed in the analysis. Projections from all the models showed increase in minimum and maximum temperatures in all seasons and sub periods. Global temperature increase worldwide has been associated with global warming. Due to limitation in the length of data used, no distinct climate change signal could however be delineated from the observed past rainfall and temperature characteristics over Lower Jubba. v TABLE OF CONTENTS DEDICATION ......................................................................................................................... iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ...................................................................................................... iv ABSTRACT ............................................................................................................................... v TABLE OF CONTENTS .......................................................................................................... vi LIST OF TABLES ..................................................................................................................... x LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS/ACRONYMS AND SYMBOLS ........................................... xiii CHAPTER 1 : INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................. 1 1.1 General Background .................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Statement of the Problem ............................................................................................ 4 1.3 Research Questions ..................................................................................................... 4 1.4 Hypothesis ................................................................................................................... 4 1.5 Research Objectives .................................................................................................... 5 1.6 Justification of the study ............................................................................................. 5 1.7 Scope and Limitations ................................................................................................. 8 CHAPTER 2 : LITERATURE REVIEW ................................................................................ 10 2.1 Climate Change .............................................................................................................. 10 2.2 Climate Change Risks and Impacts ...............................................................................
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