Drought and the French Revolution: The effects of adverse weather conditions on peasant revolts in 1789 Maria Waldinger (London School of Economics)1 This paper examines the role of adverse climatic conditions on political protest and institutional development. In particular, it assesses the role of adverse climate on the eve of the French Revolution on peasant uprisings in 1789. Historians have argued that crop failure in 1788 and cold weather in the winter of 1788/89 led to peasant revolts in various parts of France. To test this hypothesis, I construct a cross section data set with information on temperature in 1788 and 1789 and on the precise location of peasant revolts. Results show that adverse weather conditions significantly increased the likelihood of peasant uprisings, in particular in areas that depended especially on agriculture. 1. Introduction Recent research has shown that recessions may trigger revolutions because they decrease people’s opportunity costs of contesting power (Acemoglu and Robinson, 2001, 2006; Berger and Spoerer, 2001, for the European Revolutions in 1848; Brueckner and Ciccone, 2011, for regime change in Africa). People have “nothing to lose” and protest against the government, even if the recession’s causes are known to be exogenous and transitory (Burke and Leigh, 2010: 126, Acemoglu and Robinson, 2006). Protesters will uphold the threat of revolution until institutional changes ensure more redistributive policies in the future (Acemoglu and Robinson, 2006: 31f.) In 1788, on the eve of the French Revolution, a drought hit France and caused severe crop failure (Neumann 1977). By 1789, grain prices had increased steeply and common people 1 Contact:
[email protected] 1 spent 88 percent of their income on bread compared to 50 percent in normal times (Neelly 2008: 72f.).