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CJ CGV (079160) 3Q19 Preview : 컨센서스 하회 예상

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CJ CGV (079160) 3Q19 Preview : 컨센서스 하회 예상 Company Report 2019.10.14 CJ CGV (079160) 미디어/엔터 3Q19 Preview : 컨센서스 하회 예상 3Q19 Preview 연결실적은 매출액 5,247억원(+11% YoY), 영업이익 289억원(-12% YoY), 지배주주 귀속순이익 -8억원(적전 YoY)을 기록해 영업이익 기준으로 컨센서스를 20% 이 상 하회 예상. 3Q19 실적이 기대치에 미치지 못하는 핵심이유는 8~9월 한국 박스오피스 부진에 따른 본사 감익 때문. 부문별 영업이익은 본사 189억원, 4DX 59억원, 중국 59억원(중국 본사+ 연결사이트), 베트남 21억원, 인도네시아 25억원, 터키 -44억원. 참고로, 3Q19에도 터키 관련 TRS 평가손익이 거의 없을 것으로 추정 ▶본사 : 3Q19 한국 박스오피스 매출액은 5,175억원(-8% YoY)으로 감소. 본사 실적은 매출액 2,841억원(+1% YoY), 영업이익 189억원(-26% YoY) 추정. 전국 박스오피스 감소에도 불구하 투자의견 HOLD (M) 고 전년수준의 매출을 기대하는 이유는 직영점 점포수 증가(+7개 YoY)와 특화관 영화 강세에 기 목표주가 43,000원 (M) 인. ▶중국 : 3Q19 원/위안 평균환율은 170원(+3% YoY)을 기록해 YoY로 큰 변화는 없었음. 현재주가 (10/11) 31,350원 중국 CGV 티켓매출액은 4.5억위안(+1% YoY)으로 정체. 중국 CGV 사이트수는 3Q18 107개 상승여력 37% → 3Q19 134개(+25% YoY)로 증가. 중국 영업이익(중국 본사+연결사이트)은 59억원(-22% YoY)으로 감소 예상. 감익 예상이유는 티켓매출 정체구간에 사이트수가 급증한 점에 기인. ▶터 시가총액 6,634억원 키 : 3Q19 원/리라 평균환율은 211원(+4% YoY)을 기록해 YoY로 큰 변화는 없었음. 19년 총발행주식수 21,161,313주 27~39주차(7월5일 ~ 10월3일) 터키 박스오피스 누적매출액은 1.42억리라(+19% YoY)로 증가. 60일 평균 거래대금 35억원 3Q19 터키 박스오피스는 YoY로 증가하지만, QoQ로는 10% 가량 감소할 것으로 추정. 터키 영 60일 평균 거래량 101,197주 업적자는 YoY로 축소, QoQ로 확대 예상 52주 고 48,100원 52주 저 31,000원 외인지분율 8.13% 단기 주가모멘텀 양호할 듯 CJ CGV는 4Q19 중국과 터키 중심의 증익 기대. 중국은 주요주주 CJ 외 2 인 39.06% 국경절 영화 메가흥행, 터키는 영화법 개정효과에 따른 로컬영화 강세가 예상되기 때문. 여기에, 2019년 10월 일부 해외법인들에 대한 Pre-IPO 딜이 발표될 것으로 예상. 4Q19엔 동사의 재무 주가수익률(%) 1개월 3개월 12개월 구조에 대한 투자자 우려가 소멸될 것으로 기대. 이로 인해, 단기 주가모멘텀은 양호할 것으로 판 절대 (10.3) (20.5) (26.3) 단. 동사에 대한 투자의견 및 목표주가는 Pre-IPO 딜의 구체적인 내용 확인 후 조정 예정 상대 (10.1) (19.1) (23.3) 절대(달러환산) (10.1) (21.6) (29.1) 한편, 2020년 박스오피스 성장에 대한 기대치는 낮춰야 할 상황임. 흥행 보증수표인 마블영화가 2019년 3편(캡틴 마블, 어벤져스4, 스파이더맨) → 2020년 2편(블랙 위도우, 이터널스)으로 축 소되는 점과 2020년 7~8월 도쿄올림픽 진행에 따른 여름 성수기 극장 흥행 약세 우려감 때문 Quarterly earning Forecasts (억원, %) Forecasts and valuations (K-IFRS 연결) (억원, 원, %, 배) 결산 (12월) 2017A 2018A 2019F 2020F 3Q19E 전년동기대비 전분기대비 컨센서스 컨센서스대비 매출액 17,144 17,694 20,111 23,618 매출액 5,247 10.9 8.9 5,298 -1.0 영업이익 862 777 1,143 1,320 영업이익 289 -11.6 23.1 382 -24.3 지배순이익 -14 -1,407 -179 46 세전계속사업이익 -31 적지 적지 69 -145.4 PER -1,104.5 -9.1 -37.1 145.5 지배순이익 -8 적전 적지 54 -115.4 PBR 5.0 11.4 6.8 7.0 영업이익률 (%) 5.5 -1.4 %pt +0.6 %pt 7.2 -1.7 %pt EV/EBITDA 11.6 11.3 8.0 7.4 지배순이익률 (%) -0.2 적전 적지 1.0 -1.2 %pt ROE -0.4 -67.0 -17.1 4.8 자료: 유안타증권 자료: 유안타증권 CJ CGV (079160) [표1] CJ CGV 분기 실적 추이 및 전망 (단위: 억원) 2017년 2018년 2019년 연간 실적 1분기 2분기 3분기 4분기 1분기 2분기 3분기 4분기 1분기 2분기 3분기(e) 4분기(e) 17년 18년 19년(e) 20년(e) 연결매출액 4,055 3,826 4,722 4,541 4,412 4,048 4,730 4,504 4,646 4,819 5,247 5,399 17,144 17,694 20,111 23,618 본사 2,167 1,974 2,692 2,489 2,202 2,214 2,820 2,512 2,488 2,663 2,841 2,678 9,321 9,748 10,670 11,121 4DX 133 256 498 266 218 294 374 339 209 319 339 372 1,153 1,225 1,240 1,932 중국 본사/상영관/광고 682 669 738 721 900 702 863 697 971 847 1,030 1,010 2,810 3,139 3,858 5,300 베트남 상영관 343 388 295 280 320 403 345 308 457 534 414 354 1,306 1,376 1,759 1,935 인도네시아 상영관 144 185 185 205 192 233 234 258 239 323 281 297 719 917 1,140 1,253 터키 상영관 649 436 375 649 627 317 212 521 387 263 237 625 2,109 1,677 1,512 1,739 연결영업이익 146 -31 322 426 192 3 326 256 235 235 289 385 862 777 1,143 1,320 본사 43 -90 225 262 11 -12 256 106 73 93 189 131 439 361 486 508 4DX -26 21 101 26 -3 40 60 38 -5 46 59 56 122 135 156 259 중국 본사/상영관/광고 10 16 22 13 75 -28 76 13 92 19 59 22 61 134 192 324 베트남 상영관 51 42 17 1 22 52 11 -6 72 64 21 35 111 79 192 116 인도네시아 상영관 -6 7 -2 16 -10 15 19 31 2 64 25 36 15 55 127 109 터키 상영관 125 17 -2 133 128 -33 -68 100 23 -29 -44 126 273 127 76 88 OPM 4% -1% 7% 9% 4% 0% 7% 6% 5% 5% 6% 7% 5% 4% 6% 6% 본사 2% -5% 8% 11% 1% -1% 9% 4% 3% 3% 7% 5% 5% 4% 5% 5% 자회사 5% 3% 5% 8% 8% 1% 4% 8% 8% 7% 4% 9% 5% 5% 7% 6% 연결순이익(지배주주) -44 -112 291 -149 -53 -170 14 -1,197 -69 -88 -8 -13 -14 -1,407 -179 46 NIM -1% -3% 6% -3% -1% -4% 0% -27% -1% -2% 0% 0% 0% -8% -1% 0% 성장성(YoY) 연결매출액 29% 22% 12% 19% 9% 6% 0% -1% 5% 19% 11% 20% 20% 3% 14% 17% 연결영업이익 -18% 적전 -5% 139% 32% 흑전 1% -40% 23% 8720% -12% 50% 23% -10% 47% 15% 연결순이익 적전 적전 337% 적지 적지 적지 -95% 적지 적지 적지 적전 적지 적전 적지 적지 흑전 [본사 실적 추정] [상영관 지표] 전국관람객(만명) 5,228 4,500 6,396 5,862 5,130 4,506 6,684 5,317 5,507 5,425 6,144 5,370 21,986 21,638 22,445 22,493 CGV 관람객 2,465 2,145 3,025 2,746 2,458 2,157 3,079 2,501 2,617 2,562 2,891 2,576 10,380 10,196 10,647 10,884 직영관람객 1,918 1,660 2,326 2,164 1,949 1,728 2,401 2,032 2,103 2,090 2,255 2,093 8,067 8,111 8,541 8,731 전국관람객(YoY) 6% 0% -12% 17% -2% 0% 5% -9% 7% 20% -8% 1% 1% -2% 4% 0% CGV 관람객 4% -1% -11% 14% 0% 1% 2% -9% 6% 19% -6% 3% 0% -2% 4% 2% 직영관람객 5% -3% -12% 13% 2% 4% 3% -6% 8% 21% -6% 3% 0% 1% 5% 2% ATP(원) 7,739 7,892 7,656 7,683 7,812 8,725 8,137 8,308 8,303 8,492 8,300 8,391 7,548 8,002 8,234 8,453 (YoY) 1% -2% 0% -3% 1% 11% 6% 8% 6% -3% 2% 1% -1% 6% 3% 3% 매출액 2,167 1,974 2,692 2,489 2,202 2,214 2,820 2,512 2,488 2,663 2,841 2,678 9,321 9,748 10,670 11,121 상영 1,447 1,279 1,743 1,621 1,487 1,471 1,903 1,629 1,687 1,717 1,871 1,756 6,089 6,490 7,032 7,380 매점 377 334 456 414 376 371 494 410 445 482 481 435 1,581 1,652 1,843 1,897 광고 185 234 285 293 211 231 281 281 186 276 305 299 997 1,003 1,067 1,101 기타 158 126 208 161 128 141 143 192 169 188 184 186 654 603 729 743 영업이익 43 -90 225 262 11 -12 256 106 73 93 189 131 439 361 486 508 OPM 2% -5% 8% 11% 1% -1% 9% 4% 3% 3% 7% 5% 5% 4% 5% 5% 성장성(YoY) 본사 매출액 6% -2% -7% 13% 2% 12% 5% 1% 13% 20% 1% 7% 2% 5% 9% 4% 본사 영업이익 -57% 적전 -42% 164% -74% 적지 14% -59% 552% 흑전 -26% 23% -29% -18% 35% 5% [점포수] 국내 직영점(개) 94 95 97 99 102 102 104 108 110 111 111 115 99 108 115 117 중국 점포(개) 81 89 92 100 100 101 107 118 120 125 134 138 100 118 138 180 베트남 점포(개) 40 46 50 53 55 57 63 71 73 76 77 83 53 71 83 95 터키 점포(개) 90 90 93 96 97 99 101 106 107 107 107 109 96 106 109 128 인도네시아 점포(개) - - - - 46 46 47 57 57 61 62 80 - 57 80 85 4DX 글로벌 스크린수(개) 365 387 409 475 498 540 562 612 630 656 679 700 475 612 700 800 주: 연결대상 중국실적은 중국 CGV 실적에서 JV 사이트 실적을 차감해 산출 자료: 유안타증권 리서치센터 2 Company Report [표2] 환율 추이 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 원/위안 평균 환율 167 165 170 167 169 169 165 163 167 171 170 168 (YoY) -9% -7% 1% -1% 1% 3% -3% -3% -1% 1% 3% 3% 원/리라 평균 환율 312 316 322 292 281 247 202 205 209 198 211 208 (YoY) -23% -21% -15% -17% -10% -22% -37% -30% -25% -20% 4% 1% 원/100동 평균 환율 5.1 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.7 4.7 4.8 5.5 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.2 (YoY) -6% -4% -1% -5% -7% -5% -3% 13% 3% 6% 7% -6% 리라/달러 기말 환율 3.64 3.52 3.56 3.78 3.95 4.56 6.00 5.29 5.63 5.76 5.65 - (QoQ) 3% -3% 1% 6% 5% 15% 31% -12% 7% 2% -2% - 자료: Datastream, 유안타증권 리서치센터 [표3] 한국 박스오피스 실적 한국 박스오피스 YoY 특화관매출액 특화관 YoY 매출액(억원) 관객수(만명) ATP(원) 매출액 관객수 ATP (억원) 매출비중 2016 17,432 21,703 8,032 2% 0% 2% 656 -26% 4% 2017 17,565 21,987 7,989 1% 1% -1% 516 -21% 3% 2018 18,140 21,639 8,383 3% -2% 5% 795 54% 4% 1Q18 4,132 5,130 8,056 -2% -2% 0% 124 38% 3% 2Q18 3,892 4,505 8,640 8% 0% 8% 285 105% 7% 3Q18 5,625 6,684 8,416 12% 5% 7% 123 -26% 2% 4Q18 4,488 5,317 8,449 -4% -9% 6% 252 110% 6% 1Q19 4,677 5,507 8,493 13% 7% 5% 213 71% 5% 2Q19 4,630 5,424 8,535 19% 20% -1% 295 0% 6% 3Q19 5,175 6,144 8,423 -8% -8% 0% 200 62% 4% 2018.01 1,831 2,294 7,980 -3% -1% -2% 41 52% 2% 2018.02 1,264 1,555 8,129 4% 2% 2% 47 182% 4% 2018.03 1,037 1,280 8,102 -8% -8% 0% 36 -21% 3% 2018.04 1,197 1,406 8,513 33% 25% 6% 115 234% 10% 2018.05 1,388 1,589 8,735 -7% -15% 9% 108 116% 8% 2018.06 1,307 1,510 8,657 8% 0% 8% 62 13% 5% 2018.07 1,661 1,978 8,397 -2% -7% 6% 66 -33% 4% 2018.08 2,525 3,025 8,346 8% 1% 7% 57 23% 2% 2018.09 1,440 1,682 8,563 42% 32% 7% 22 -2% 2% 2018.10 1,196 1,407 8,499 -32% -35% 5% 52 -5% 4% 2018.11 1,448 1,714 8,448 39% 30% 7% 98 251% 7% 2018.12 1,843 2,194 8,399 -3% -8% 6% 101 174% 6% 2019.01 1,512 1,812 8,341 -17% -21% 5% 60 46% 4% 2019.02 1,900 2,228 8,528 50% 43% 5% 85 81% 4% 2019.03 1,266 1,467 8,626 22% 15% 6% 68 87% 5% 2019.04 1,132 1,334 8,485 -5% -5% 0% 84 -32% 7% 2019.05 1,546 1,806 8,557 11% 14% -2% 109 1% 7% 2019.06 1,952 2,284 8,546 49% 51% -1% 102 63% 5% 2019.07 1,841 2,192 8,400 11% 11% 0% 132 197% 7% 2019.08 2,090 2,479 8,430 -17% -18% 1% 54 -6% 3% 2019.09 1,245 1,474 8,446 -14% -12% -1% 15 -32% 1% 자료: 영진위, 유안타증권 리서치센터 3 CJ CGV (079160) [표4] 한국 박스오피스 관객수 추이 제목 개봉일 관객수(만명) 제목 개봉일 관객수(만명) 제목 개봉일 관객수(만명) 1Q17 공조 01 월18 일 782 1Q18 신과함께-죄와 벌 12 월20 일 587 1Q19 극한직업 01 월23 일 1,626 더 킹 01 월18 일 532 블랙 팬서 02 월14 일 539 캡틴 마블 03 월06 일 554 너의 이름은.
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