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The Energy Sector: A Quick Tour for the Investor November 2013 Investment Support and ©2013 Deloitte Türkiye. Member of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited Promotion Agency of Turkey Disclaimer Republic of Turkey Prime Ministry Investment Support and Promotion Agency (ISPAT) submits the information provided by third parties in good faith. ISPAT has no obligation to check and examine this information and takes no responsibility for any misstatement or false declaration. ISPAT does not guarantee the accuracy, currency, reliability, correctness or legality of any information provided by third parties. ISPAT accepts no responsibility for the content of any information, news or article in the document and cannot be considered as approving any opinion declared by third parties. ISPAT explicitly states that; it is not liable for any loss, negligence, tort or other damages caused by actions and agreements based on the information provided by third parties. Deloitte accepts no liability to any party who is shown or gains access to this document. The opinions expressed in this report are based on Deloitte Consulting’s judgment and analysis of key factors. However, the actual operation and results of the analyzed sector may differ from those projected herein. Deloitte does not warrant that actual results will be the same as the projected results. Neither Deloitte nor any individuals signing or associated with this report shall be required by reason of this report to give further consultation, to provide testimony or appear in court or other legal proceedings, unless specific arrangements thereof have been made. All opinions and estimates included in this report constitute our judgment as of this date and are subject to change without notice and may become outdated. Investment Support and ©2013 Deloitte Türkiye. Member of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited 1 Promotion Agency of Turkey Table of Contents A. Executive Summary B. General Overview of the Energy Sector i. Overview of the Global Energy Sector ii. Investment Enablers of the Turkish Energy Market iii. Market Information C. A Closer Look at the Sub-sectors i. Electricity ii. Petroleum iii. Natural Gas & LNG iv. Coal D. Opportunities and Investment Areas Investment Support and ©2013 Deloitte Türkiye. Member of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited 2 Promotion Agency of Turkey Glossary of Terms Acronym Definition Acronym Definition Independent Energy Exchange BCM Billion Cubic Meters EPİAŞ (to be established) BO Build Operate EU European Union BOT Build Operate Transfer EÜAŞ State-Owned Generation Company State-Owned BOTAŞ Natural Gas and Petroleum Pipeline Corporation FDI Foreign Direct Investment BRIC Brazil, Russia, India, China GDP Gross Domestic Product BSR Balancing and Settlement Regulation GW Gigawatt CAGR Compound Annual Growth Rate GWh Gigawatt Hours CCGT Combined Cycle Gas Turbine HEPP Hydroelectric Power Plant DisCo Distribution Company IEA International Energy Association EIU Economist Intelligence Unit IPP Independent Power Producer EML Electricity Market Law LNG Liquified Natural Gas EMRA (EPDK) Energy Market Regulatory Authority LPG Liquified Petroleum Gas European Network of Transmission System M&A Mergers and Acquisitions ENTSO-E Operators for Electricity Investment Support and 3 ©2013 Deloitte Türkiye. Member of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited Promotion Agency of Turkey Glossary of Terms Acronym Definition Acronym Definition MENR Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources TEDAŞ State-Owned Distribution Company MFSC Market Financial Settlement Center TEİAŞ State-Owned Transmission Company General Directorate MTA of Mineral Research and Exploration TETAŞ State-Owned Wholesale Company MVA Megavolt Ampere TKİ Turkish Coal Enterprises NG Natural Gas TOE Tons Oil Equivalent NGML National Gas Machinery Laboratory TOR Transfer of Operating Rights NGO Non-Governmental Organization TPAO Turkish Petroleum Corporation Organization OECD for Economic Co-operation and Development TTK Turkish Hard Coal Authority TÜBİTAK Scientific and Technological OSB Organized Industrial Zones Research Council of Turkey PMUM State-Owned Market Operator within TEİAŞ TÜİK Turkish Statistical Institute R&D Research and Development US$ United States Dollar REL Renewable Energy Law USDC Unit Service and Depreciation Charge TCE Ton Coal Equivalent VAT Value Added Tax Investment Support and 4 ©2013 Deloitte Türkiye. Member of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited Promotion Agency of Turkey Executive Summary • This report provides insights into the Turkish energy • The investment climate of Turkey has increasingly sector and aims to provide prospective investors become more welcoming to international investors, with a view of the sector with high-level analyses of making the country among the most important sub-sectors. investment destinations in the world. The energy sector alone has made 32% of the deal volume • Turkey is the 17th largest economy in the world and through privatizations and private sector the 6th largest in Europe with a GDP of approx. USD transactions in 2012. 786 billion in 2012. With an economic boom of 9.3% and 8.8% in 2010 and 2011 and a slow down to • Several incentives are available for both CAPEX and 2.2% in 2012, Turkey is expected to grow by 3.5% OPEX. Moreover, a significant amount of funds are in 2013, 4.9% in 2014, 5.1% in 2015, 5.0% in 2016 available for possible projects. Major Turkish and 4.9% in 2017. financial institutions see the value within the energy sector and are eager to invest in profitable new • As a fast-growing country, energy consumption in projects. Turkey is on the rise. The Turkish electricity market is one of the fastest growing in the world, with • The number of skilled labor is increasing as energy- approx. 9% annual growth on average, in 2010 and specific vocational schools and university 2011. Natural gas demand is expected to increase departments (both undergraduate and graduate) with a CAGR of 2.9% until 2020 according to the are being established in Turkey. The private sector’s Ministry of Energy and Resources. This growing involvement in the Turkish energy field started about demand calls for new investments. a decade ago, and those in this market are all seasoned professionals with noteworthy experience. • With the on-going liberalization process, the Turkish energy sector is becoming more vibrant and • Investment opportunities exist in almost all competitive, attracting the attention of more components of the value chain for electricity, natural investors for each component of the value chain in gas, oil and coal. all the energy sub-sectors. Investment Support and ©2013 Deloitte Türkiye. Member of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited 5 Promotion Agency of Turkey B. General Overview i. Overview of the Global Energy Sector ii. Investment Enablers of the Turkish Energy Market iii. Market Information Investment Support and Promotion Agency of Turkey The demand for energy is constantly growing, keeping secure supplies at the forefront of our global agenda. Global Energy Demand (2011-2030) • Growing demand - driven by population and 12.000 industrial growth - in emerging markets calls for CAGR: an increase in the supply capacity as well as diversity in the energy generation mix. 1.64% 10.000 Diversification of primary energy supplies reduces dependency on a single source and contributes to mTEP supply security. 8.000 • Developing countries, including Turkey are expected to constitute 93% of the growth in 6.000 demand. • Global energy consumption will continue to 4.000 increase, with primary energy consumption having reached 12.4 million tons oil equivalent for an 2.000 increase of 1.8% in 2012. • Global oil consumption was 4.1 million tons in 2012 with an increase of 0.9% with respect to the 0 previous year. 2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 Non-OECD Source: BP Energy Outlook 2013 • World nuclear generation decreased in 2012: The OECD change in 2012 compared with 2011 was -6.9%. The Fukushima nuclear accident triggered the decrease in nuclear energy generation. This • Population and GDP growth are the two main factors situation also paved the way for renewables and affecting energy demand. The demand on global natural gas. energy dramatically increased 48% between 1990 and 2010. It is expected that global primary energy • According to IEA, shale gas caused a decline in gas demand will increase at a CAGR of 1.64% until prices, increasing the demand on natural gas and 2030, which will keep supply security on the agenda. LNG. Investment Support and ©2013 Deloitte Türkiye. Member of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited 7 Promotion Agency of Turkey Turkey’s booming economy keeps energy – and the demand for energy - at the top of our agenda. • Over the past decade, demand in the Turkish • The Turkish electricity market is one of the fastest electricity market has been growing in line with its growing in the world, with an average of approx. 9% economic developments, driven by industrialization annual growth in 2010 and 2011. and urbanization. This situation together with • Similar to the electricity market, natural gas population growth expectations shows great consumption in Turkey is growing as well. Natural potential for further growth. gas consumption in Turkey reached approx. 46 bcm • Primary energy consumption between 2007 and in 2012 demonstrating an increase of 4.7% 2012 increased at a CAGR of 2%. According to the compared to the previous year. Natural gas demand Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), energy demand in is expected to grow by 2.9% annually until 2020 Turkey will increase at an annual rate of 4.5% until according to the Ministry of Energy and Resources. 2015 in alignment with the growth expected within • Distribution sales of gasoline, diesel oil and fuel oil the GDP. products increased by 3.8%, which corresponds to 18.2 million tons in 2012. Crude oil imports increased by 7% and reached 19.5 million tons in 140,0 1.500 2012. 120,0 100,0 1.000 • Turkey is still lagging behind the per capita energy 80,0 consumption indicator in comparison with the OECD 60,0 average, which shows that there is still more room 500 40,0 for further growth, in alignment with increasing per 20,0 capita GDP.
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