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Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Report No. 54947-GLB Pro-Poor Adaptation to Climate Change in Urban Centers: Case Studies of Vulnerability and Resilience in Kenya and Nicaragua Caroline Moser Andrew Norton Alfredo Stein Sophia Georgieva The World Bank Sustainable Development Network Social Development Department June 2010 ©2010 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Web site: www.worldbank.org E-mail: [email protected] All rights reserved. This volume is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect the views of the executive directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of the World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions The material in this publication is copyrighted. Copying and/or transmitting portions or all of this work without permission may be a violation of applicable law. The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank encourages dissemination of its work and will normally grant permission to reproduce portions of the work promptly. For permission to photocopy or reprint any part of this work, please send a request with complete information to the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA, 01923, USA; (telephone) 978-750-8400; (fax) 978-750-4470; (web site) http://www.copyright.com/. All other queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Office of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC, 20433, USA; (fax) 202-522-2422; (email) [email protected]. TABLE OF CONTENTS ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ........................................................................................................................ IV ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ......................................................................................................................................... VI EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ......................................................................................................................................... VII I. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................................ 1 1.1 BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES ................................................................................................................................ 1 1.2 APPROACHES TO ASSESSING URBAN VULNERABILITY ..................................................................................................... 2 1.3 DISASTER RISK REDUCTION AND CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION — THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THE FRAME ................................... 5 1.4 THE CLIMATE CHANGE ASSET ADAPTATION FRAMEWORK AND STUDY METHODOLOGY ........................................................ 6 a. Participatory Climate Change Adaptation Appraisal (PCCAA) ..................................................................... 7 b. Rapid Risk and Institutional Appraisal at the City Level (RRIA) .................................................................... 8 c. Consultation and Validation of Results ........................................................................................................ 9 1.5. SELECTION OF CASE STUDIES AND RESEARCH PROCESS .................................................................................................. 9 II. BOTTOM-UP REALITIES: IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON POOR COMMUNITIES IN MOMBASA AND ESTELI ....................................................................................................................................................................... 11 2.1. BACKGROUND AND COMMUNITY CHARACTERISTICS .................................................................................................... 11 2.2. WHAT DOES CLIMATE DATA SAY ABOUT LIKELY IMPACTS OF WEATHER CHANGES ON THE POOR? ....................................... 13 2.3 COMMUNITY PERCEPTIONS OF INCREASES IN SEVERE WEATHER CONDITIONS .................................................................. 16 2.4 VULNERABILITY TO SEVERE WEATHER IN MOMBASA AND ESTELÍ ................................................................................... 18 a. Physical vulnerability ................................................................................................................................. 18 b. Politico-legal Vulnerability ......................................................................................................................... 19 c. Socio-economic vulnerability ..................................................................................................................... 21 2.5 SOURCES OF RESILIENCE: ASSET-BASED ADAPTATION STRATEGIES ................................................................................. 22 a. Household asset-based adaptation to severe weather ............................................................................. 24 b. Small business asset-based adaptation to severe weather ....................................................................... 29 c. Collective Asset-based Adaptation to Severe Weather .............................................................................. 31 2.6 THE ROLE OF LOCAL INSTITUTIONS IN ADAPTATION TO WEATHER CHANGES .................................................................... 34 a. Government institutions ............................................................................................................................ 36 b. Religious organizations .............................................................................................................................. 37 c. Externally supported local NGOs and CBOs ............................................................................................... 38 d. Internal community-based organizations and self-help groups ............................................................... 39 e. Inter-institutional collaboration ................................................................................................................. 40 f. Support within and between self-help groups ........................................................................................... 42 III. THE FRAMEWORK FOR RESPONSE: ADAPTATION POLICIES AND INSTITUTIONS IN MOMBASA AND ESTELI... 43 3.1. CLIMATE CHANGE POLICIES AND STRATEGIES ............................................................................................................. 43 a. Climate Change Policies at the Country Level ............................................................................................ 43 b. Climate Change Adaptation in Urban Areas .............................................................................................. 44 c. Legal, Institutional, Programmatic and Fiscal Domains of Climate Change Policy .................................... 45 3.2 LAND AND TENURE RIGHT ISSUES ............................................................................................................................ 49 IV. CONSULTATION AND VALIDATION OF RESULTS .............................................................................................. 51 V. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ..................................................................................................... 55 ANNEX I: METHODOLOGICAL GUIDELINES FOR IMPLEMENTING URBAN PARTICIPATORY CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION APPRAISALS .............................................................................................................................. 58 ANNEX II: CLIMATE PROJECTIONS RELEVANT TO MOMBASA AND ESTELÍ ........................................................... 71 i ANNEX III: SUMMARY OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION AND DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT ............................................................................................................................................... 76 ANNEX IV: RANKING OF BUSINESS ASSETS IN MOMBASA AND ESTELÍ AND OF COLLECTIVE ASSETS IN MOMBASA ... 77 REFERENCES ......................................................................................................................................................... 80 TABLES TABLE 1: APPROACHES TO URBAN VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENTS ............................................................................................. 4 TABLE 2: CLIMATE DATA FOR A WET MONTH [APRIL] IN MOMBASA, FROM 1957-2009 ............................................................. 14 TABLE 3: CLIMATE DATA FOR A COLD MONTH [JULY] IN MOMBASA, FROM 1957-2009 ............................................................. 14 TABLE 4: CLIMATE DATA FOR A HOT MONTH [DECEMBER] IN MOMBASA, FROM 1957-2009 ...................................................... 14 TABLE 5: ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (°C) PER MONTH PER DECADE (1961-2000) IN OCOTAL, NICARAGUA ..................... 15 TABLE 6: COMPOSITE MATRIX OF PERCEPTIONS OF THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HAZARDS IN MOMBASA AND ESTELÍ ................