An Analysis of Saudi Arabian Outbound Tourism
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An Analysis of Saudi Arabian Outbound Tourism A dissertation submitted to the Graduate School of the University of Cincinnati in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the Department of Geography of the College of Art and Sciences by Basheer O. Alshammari M.A. Imam University B.A. Imam University August 2018 Committee Chair: Robert B. South, Ph.D. Abstract Tourism has emerged in recent decades as one of the most impactful and consistent growth industries for nearly all parts of the globe, ranking as the world’s third-largest export category. However, global-scale tourism trends and statistics are summations of regional- and country-specific instances people traveling outbound, across an international border from their country of residence or citizenship, for tourism purposes. Saudi Arabia is one of the world’s most important tourist-generating markets and the largest in the Middle East. Approximately 75 percent of Saudi citizens annually engage in an international vacation. This study is an analysis of Saudi Arabian international-outbound tourism, 2002-2015. The research focuses on two aspects of Saudi tourism - growth of outbound tourism and destination trends. Collective understanding of the characteristics of these outbound tourists is typically performed by connecting destination choice with socioeconomic and demographic variables, when those data are known. Owing largely to higher disposable incomes and liberal vacation time, Saudi Arabia has vibrant outbound tourism activity. Data collected by the Department of Tourism and Information Research (MAS) within the Saudi Commission of Tourism and National Heritage (SCTH) on socio- economic factors of the country’s outbound tourism population for the year 2015 provides a unique means to assess, via multiple regression, discriminant and factor analysis, if certain characteristics are common to destination choice. The study finds that the growth of Saudi international tourism is largely a result of both push factors within the nation and Saudi wealth. Saudi outbound choice is largely influenced by those places that are Arabic speaking/Muslim nations, as well as economic/politically stable destinations. In general, most Saudis seek a cosmopolitan vacation venue where indulgence in an upscale experience in an Arabic, more liberal Muslim nation, is the ii destination of choice. Trending data indicate emerging new western destinations for Saudi international tourists. But capturing the US 20 billion annual expenditure on outbound tourism may be elusive given Saudi preferences to vacation in culturally familiar places. The results offer some insight into a demographic understanding of Saudi outbound tourists and their destination choices, and provide an opportunity to identify motivations of travel that exist beyond the data. The results also challenge that the reliance on country groupings by other organizations and the arbitrariness of demographic data categories that could potentially skew or compromise the actual motivations and understandings of outbound travelers. Key words: Saudi Arabia, outbound tourism, tourist growth, destination trends, familiar culture iii iv Acknowledgments I would first like to thank the Department of Geography at the University of Cincinnati for accepting me into the doctoral program and providing me the platform for conducting this dissertation research. I would like to thank Dr. Robert South, who served as my Advisor and Ph.D. Committee Chair, shepherded me through the program, offering guidance, advice, support, and criticism when necessary. Thank you also to all my Ph.D. committee members: Dr. Kevin Raleigh, Dr. Nick Dunning, Dr. Rainer Vom Hofe, and Dr. C.J. Kim. Each of the members of my Dissertation Committee has provided me extensive personal and professional guidance and taught me a great deal about both scientific research and life in general. I would especially like to thank Dr. Kevin Raleigh, who has taught me more than I could ever give him credit for here. He has shown me, by his example, what a good scientist (and person) should be. Also thank you to my friend, Humud Alanazi, who has provided me great assistance to get the data I used in this dissertation. Nobody has been more important to me in the pursuit of this project than the members of my family. I would like to thank my parents; whose love and guidance are with me in whatever I pursue. They are the ultimate role models. Most importantly, I wish to thank my brother, Shafi, loving and supportive wife, Hissah, and my four wonderful children, Shouq, Raneem, Yazeed, and Basmah, who provide unending inspiration. v Table of Contents 1. Introduction...............................................................................................................1 1.1 Statement of Problem .....................................................................................1 1.2 Organization of the Dissertation.....................................................................2 2. Literature Review ................................................................................................... 4 2.1 Saudi Arabia Outbound Tourism: An Analysis of Trends and Destinations 2.1.1 Outbound tourism ……………………………………………………….4 2.1.2 Patterns and trends of outbound tourism…………………………...……4 2.1.3 Saudi Arabia outbound tourism……………………………………….…6 2.2 Saudi Arabia's Outbound Tourists: 2.2.1 Socioeconomic and Demographic Commonalities Present in International Destination Selection…………………………………………………..…7 2.3 A Social Economic Analysis of Tourists’ Destination Choice 2.3.1 Saudi Arabia…………………………………………………………….12 2.3.2 Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries……………….……………13 2.3.3 The Middle East…………………………………………………………15 3. Research Article 1 ...................................................................................................17 3.1 Introduction……………………………………………………….…….…19 3.2 Methodology……………………………………………………….……...36 3.3 Results and Conclusion …………………………………………….…..…45 4. Research Article 2 ...................................................................................................52 4.1 Introduction…………………………………………………….……….…54 4.2 Methodology……………………………………………..………………..59 4.3 Results and Conclusion ………………………………..……………….…68 5. Research Article 3 ...................................................................................................91 5.1 Introduction……………………………………………………………..…92 5.2 Methodology………………………………………………………………94 5.3 Results and Conclusion ………………………………………………….100 6. Summary and Conclusions ...................................................................................107 7. Bibliography ...........................................................................................................110 vi List of Figures Research Article 1 Figure 1: The Middle East………………………………………………………..….…20 Figure 2: Saudi outbound tourist travel, by month, 2015…………………….…...……26 Figure 3: Average monthly temperature and rainfall, Saudi Arabia 1990-2012………..26 Figure 4: Saudi Arabia GNI per capita 2002-2015…………………..……………....…28 Figure 5: Crude oil prices per barrel, 2000-2015 (US Dollars) …………………..……29 Figure 6: Outbound destinations by Saudi tourists, 2002……………………….……...33 Figure 7: Outbound destinations by Saudi tourists, 2012……………………....………34 Research Article 2 Figure 1: UNWTO Regional Commissions…………………………………………….60 Figure 2: UNWTO Regional Sub-groupings of the Countries of the World…………...60 Figure 3: Excerpt of Data Table on Year 2015 Saudi Outbound Tourist Trips…………61 Figure 4: Year 2015 Saudi Outbound Tourist Trips for 42 Countries…………………..62 Figure 5: Categories of Demographic Information ……………………………………..63 Figure 6: Result of Box’s M Test for the Equality of Covariances……………………..73 Figure 7: Eigenvalues and Variances of the Linear Discriminant Functions ………..…74 Figure 8: Wilks’ Lambda Eigenvalues and Variances………………………..……...…76 Figure 9: Structure Matrix Result of Discriminant Analysis …………………...….…..77 Figure 10: Classification Results of Demographics………………………………….....80 Research Article 3 Figure 1: UNWTO Regional Commissions……………………………………………..97 Figure 2: UNWTO Regional Sub-groupings of the Countries…………………………..98 Figure 3: Countries in the Analysis……………………………………….......................99 vii List of Tables Research Article 1 Table 1: International tourism-generating countries per capita (2015)……………………21 Table 2: Saudi Arabia Outbound Tourism and Expenditures, 2002-2015...........................24 Table 3: Major destinations by Saudi outbound tourists, 2002-2012……………………..31 Table 4: Catalyzing events rendering destination countries………………………………37 Table 5: Data Explanation and Variable Name Employed in Modeling………...………..39 Table 6: Pearson correlation coefficients, dependent and independent variables...............40 Table 7: Skewness for non-categorical independent variables………………..…………..41 Table 8: Coefficients of determination (r 2 ) for regression models………………….…...43 Research Article 2 Table 1: Saudi Arabia Outbound Tourists, Overnights, and Tourism Expenditure……..56 Table 2: Per capita Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) 2015……………………………….57 Table 3: Grouping Variable for Saudi Outbound Tourism, 2015………………………..69 Table 4: Discriminant analysis results ……………………………….………………….71 Table 5: Tests of Equality of Group Means…………………….……………………….72 Research Article 3 Table 1: Table Numbers, Data, and Categorizations…………………………………….96 Table 2: Factor Analysis / Total Variance Explained………………….………………..101 Table 3: Rotated Component Matrix……………………………………...…………....102