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Final Report Pan Arab Regional Energy Trade FINAL REPORT PAN ARAB REGIONAL ENERGY TRADE Intended for The World Bank Document type Final Report Date 1st of September, 2017 ANALYTICAL FOUNDATION FOR INCREASED PAN- ARAB REGIONAL GAS TRADE FINAL REPORT DISCLAIMER: The contents of this publication are the sole responsibility of Ramboll and can in no way be taken to reflect the views of the World Bank ACKNOWLEDGEMENT: Funding for this publication was provided by PPIAF. PPIAF, a multi-donor trust fund housed in the World Bank Group, provides technical assistance to governments in developing countries. PPIAF’s main goal is to create enabling environments through high-impact partnerships that facilitate private investment in infrastructure. For more information, visit www.ppiaf.org ANALYTICAL FOUNDATION FOR INCREASED PAN-ARAB REGIONAL GAS TRADE FINAL REPORT Revision Final Report Date 1st of September, 2017 Made by Bent Svensson, Søren Løvstad Christensen, Per Jørgensen, Anatoli Smirnov, Emiliano Catalini Checked by Søren Løvstad Christensen, Bent Svensson, Therese Henriksen, Andrew Somerville Approved by Per Jørgensen Description Final Report Ramboll Hannemanns Allé 53 DK-2300 Copenhagen S Denmark T +45 5161 1000 F +45 5161 1001 www.ramboll.com/oil-gas Final Report CONTENTS INTRODUCTION 10 MAIN FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 15 EXISTING TRADE 30 OVERALL SUPPLY DEMAND BALANCE 37 SECURITY OF SUPPLY 49 BARRIERS AND OPPORTUNITIES 55 SUBSIDIES 71 VALUE OF GAS AND COST OF SUPPLY OF GAS 77 INTERNATIONAL EXPERIENCE GAS INTEGRATION 87 COUNTRY AND HUB SUMMARIES 104 Final Report TABLE OF FIGURES Figure 1: Marketed Natural Gas vs. Traded Gas MENA region ................................................ 11 Figure 2: Country price (2012-2013) vs Herfindahl index for gas sellers to each country ............ 11 Figure 3: Value of gas vs. export netback .......................................................................... 13 Figure 4: A stepwise approach to a bottom-up development of regional trade .......................... 15 Figure 5: Reserves of natural gas MENA countries and Iran .................................................. 17 Figure 6: Value of gas vs. export netback .......................................................................... 23 Figure 7: Netback value of gas in export (LNG+Pipeline), power sector (coal, HFO) ME ............. 24 Figure 8: Netback value of gas in export (LNG+Pipeline), power sector (coal, HFO) NA .............. 25 Figure 9: Import of natural gas through pipelines in the Arab countries .................................. 33 Figure 10: Inter regional LNG trade .................................................................................. 34 Figure 11: Qatar Interregional LNG export ......................................................................... 35 Figure 12: Algeria interregional LNG export........................................................................ 35 Figure 13 Applied Market Model ....................................................................................... 38 Figure 14 Adopted Methodology for gas demand assessment in the power sector ..................... 39 Figure 15: Flow diagram electrical flows ............................................................................ 40 Figure 16: Gas consumption 2020 plotted against electrical demand and electrical production costs .................................................................................................................................. 41 Figure 17: Gas demand development in power generation .................................................... 41 Figure 18: Natural Gas Consumption MENAP Region ............................................................ 43 Figure 19: Deviations in gas consumption in the power sector compared to basecase scenario.... 43 Figure 20: Gas consumption variations with respect to baseline scenario – country results ......... 44 Figure 21: N-1 calculation 2020 ....................................................................................... 50 Figure 22: Underground Gas Storage facilities in the World ................................................... 51 Figure 23: Working gas by nations > 3 bcm ....................................................................... 52 Figure 24: Seasonal consumption of gas in a Gulf country .................................................... 53 Figure 25: Current account balance as % of GDP ................................................................ 60 Figure 26: Development off installation depths for offshore pipeline ....................................... 64 Figure 27: Possible export pipeline crossing ....................................................................... 65 Figure 28: A1 Western Mediterranean Basin ....................................................................... 65 Figure 29: A1, Eastern Mediterranean Basin ....................................................................... 65 Figure 30 - B, Red Sea ................................................................................................... 66 Figure 31 C: Arabian Sea (Source: National Centres for Environmental Information (NOAA)) ...... 66 Figure 32 D: Persian and Arabian Gulf ............................................................................... 67 Figure 33: Egypt to Italy pipeline ..................................................................................... 68 Figure 34: Route point outside Libya ................................................................................. 69 Figure 35: Egypt Tunisia offshore ..................................................................................... 69 Figure 36 Gas subsidies in key MENA countries 2012-2014, Real 2013 BUSD ........................... 73 Figure 37: Energy subsidies in GCC countries, 2013-2016. % of GDP ..................................... 74 Figure 38: Value of gas vs netback in export. ..................................................................... 78 Figure 39: LRMC Wellhead costs Mena Region .................................................................... 79 Figure 40: Middle East LRMC, LNG import, and subsidised prices (2020) ................................. 81 Figure 41: Middle East LRMC, LNG import, and subsidised prices (2020) ................................. 81 Figure 42: Netback value of gas in export (LNG+Pipeline), power sector (coal, HFO) ME ............ 84 Figure 43: Netback value of gas in export (LNG+Pipeline), power sector (coal, HFO) ................. 86 Figure 44: EU Moving towads a competitive gas market .................................................... 103 Figure 45: Map of Egypt hub ......................................................................................... 106 Figure 10-3- Levant basin ............................................................................................. 108 Figure 46: Overview Levant Basin .................................................................................. 108 Figure 48: EASTMED and Poseidon Pipelines .................................................................... 109 Figure 49: Significant discoveries in the Eastern Mediterranean ........................................... 110 Figure 50: Map of Libya hub .......................................................................................... 112 Final Report Figure 51: Iraq hub ..................................................................................................... 114 Figure 52: Qatar trading hub ......................................................................................... 116 Figure 53: Iran trading hub ........................................................................................... 117 Figure 54: overview of gross production Algeria ................................................................ 119 Figure 55: Algeria gas production 5 new fields .................................................................. 120 Figure 56: Marketed Production and Export Algeria ........................................................... 121 Figure 57: Projections of gas demand 2017-2023. ............................................................ 121 Figure 58: Algeria gas balance ....................................................................................... 122 Figure 59: LRMC incremental production Algeria ............................................................... 123 Figure 60: Energy subsidies in Algeria 2012-15. Percent of GDP. ......................................... 124 Figure 61: Gas supply Morocco ...................................................................................... 126 Figure 62: Value of gas Morocco .................................................................................... 127 Figure 63: Production balance Tunisia ............................................................................. 128 Figure 64: Production balance Tunisia ............................................................................. 129 Figure 65: Tunisia Supply and demand balance ................................................................ 130 Figure 66: Tunisia power sector gas consumption ............................................................. 130 Figure 67: Value of gas Tunisia ...................................................................................... 131 Figure 68: Production projection .................................................................................... 133 Figure 69: Gas balance Iran .........................................................................................
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