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Integration Routes North Sea Offshore Wind 2050

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Integration Routes North Sea Offshore Wind 2050 Integration routes North Sea offshore wind 2050 A quantitative insight into possible grid integration routes, including sector coupling, to facilitate large scale offshore wind roll-out​ April 17, 2020 Foreword The North Sea has an enormous potential to contribute to the decarbonised energy system of the future through the vast potential of offshore wind as a variable renewable energy source. This study focusses on understanding the main drivers for efficient and secure integration of large scale offshore wind towards 2050 in onshore energy grid. It provides insights for infrastructure companies, wind developers and policy makers on how to solve the integration challenge. A solid integration route will be crucial for creating the right investment climate and to develop the necessary European infrastructure effectively for the longer term and against maximum societal benefit. The North Sea Wind Power Hub consortium will continue with a next phase of this study, to deepen the knowledge to develop potential path-ways for the roll-out of off-shore wind hubs after 2030. It welcomes ideas and suggestions to further improve the results. On behalf of the NSPWH consortium, Michiel Müller ©2020 Navigant Netherlands B.V.. All Rights Reserved 1 Executive summary/readers guide Background and objective of study The transition of the North Sea Energy Cooperation (NSEC) countries to a low-carbon To better understand the context in which the North Sea offshore wind energy system society requires swift and massive changes in the energy system. On the electricity side, would be developed in the long-term, the NSWPH consortium has asked Navigant, a decarbonising the system requires large scale offshore wind power deployment in the Guidehouse company, to provide the consortium with a better understanding of potential North Sea, at an accelerated deployment rate, to meet the Paris Agreement. This integration routes for approximately 180 GW of offshore wind power capacity installed in introduces several challenges, including: the NSEC region by 2050, taking into account the flexibility needs of a decarbonized • Moving from small incremental national oriented steps and fragmented visions power system. towards long term and holistic energy system planning, The objective of the study at hand is to provide the NSWPH consortium with a better • Developing far and large-scale offshore wind within the limited available area in the understanding of: North Sea, 1. the wider impact of integrating large volumes of offshore wind energy in the North • Developing a cost-efficient integrated energy infrastructure to maximise supply of Sea on the NSEC power system and the resulting need for flexibility, North Sea offshore wind energy to energy markets, 2. the costs and benefits of different integration routes for ~ 180 GW offshore wind • Integrating offshore wind in an already constrained onshore electricity system, capacity installed in the NSEC by 2050, and • Maintaining security of supply across various time scales, geographic locations, 3. the potential role of hydrogen and related infrastructure to enable a large-scale sectors and markets, and developing flexibility options at scale and across all time deployment of offshore wind capacity and to ensure adequacy of the system. scales to support strongly increasing shares of variable renewable energy sources in The study at hand was conducted in two phases. The first phase focused on the onshore the energy system. integration challenges for the assumed large scale roll-out of offshore wind capacity. The The North Sea Wind Power Hub (NSWPH) consortium sees the modular Hub-and- aim of the second phase was to gain some further insights into a favourable design for Spoke concept as an important solution to meet the climate goals in time. The concept the offshore transmission grid to integrate the future North Sea offshore wind capacity. has multiple benefits including: ensuring cost-effective and timely ramp-up of offshore After an intensive collaboration between the NSWPH consortium and Navigant, wind energy, providing flexibility to adapt each project to location specific needs, and discussing the applied methodology and results of this work in detail, the key findings of enabling offshore wind integration and providing energy system flexibility through this study have been presented to individual members of the NSWPH consortium in interconnections and sector coupling. The NSWPH consortium is currently progressing meetings at Energinet, Gasunie, TenneT and Port of Rotterdam. Now, the NSWPH towards the definition and development of a first Hub-and-Spoke project. consortium has decided to make this work publicly available in order to make the results of our study available to a broader audience. ©2020 Navigant Netherlands B.V.. All Rights Reserved 2 Executive summary/readers guide Applied methodology To evaluate the costs and benefits of different integration routes for ~ 180 GW of • In a last step, we conduct a cost benefit analysis for the different investigated offshore wind capacity and analyse the potential role of hydrogen for the NSEC power integration routes for installed offshore wind capacity using results of the applied system we applied the following approach: integrated energy system model and considering additional benefits for the wider • In a first step, we developed a fair comparison framework in which the cost benefit energy system. analysis is embedded. Although the scope of this study is limited to the power system, We assume that hydrogen is available for the power system in all investigated the fair comparison framework aims to acknowledge additional benefits (and costs) of scenarios as a carbon free flexibility source. hydrogen related infrastructure as part of the NSWPH infrastructure for the wider • However, for integration routes where we assume that installed offshore wind energy and industrial system. capacity would be connected via electrical infrastructure only (“via E”), hydrogen can • In a second step, we defined a scenario baseline for the year 2050 in terms of be imported only from outside the NSEC region and used in gas turbine power installed capacity, hourly electricity demand and available electricity transmission plants installed at coastal regions of the NSEC power system (Gas-to-Power); the gas capacity on sub-country level in the NSEC region. We used regional clusters defined transmission network is not available to transport imported hydrogen further inland. In in the e-Highway2050 study to determine onshore-regions on sub-country level. For this case, hydrogen in combination with dispatchable power plants can contribute to defining offshore-regions we used results of previous NSWPH analyses. This 2050 adequacy of the NSEC power system. However, hydrogen does not serve as bulk scenario baseline serves as starting point for evaluating the costs and benefits of the storage solution providing long duration flexibility for offshore wind power or to different investigated integration routes for the assumed installed offshore wind transport offshore wind energy in the form of hydrogen to inland demand centres. capacity. • In contrast, in integration routes where we assume that offshore wind power • Afterwards, in a third step, we applied an integrated energy system model to integration can include hydrogen infrastructure (“via E&H2”), hydrogen can be analyse the impact of ~ 180 GW offshore wind capacity on the NSEC power produced by Power-to-Gas installed at coastal regions around the North Sea, and system in 2050 on an hourly basis to identify suitable integration routes for the we assume the gas transmission network is available to store and transport hydrogen assumed large scale roll-out of offshore wind capacity. The applied energy system further inland. model allows for integrated modelling of electricity and gas infrastructure and can be • The aim of these somewhat stylized scenario assumptions is to explore the role of used for capacity expansion and system dispatch optimization. We used the model to hydrogen and its related infrastructure to integrate the installed offshore wind capacity investigate various integration routes in terms of available candidate flexibility sources and to ensure adequacy of a future decarbonized power system based on high that can be installed additionally to what is installed according to the 2050 scenario shares of variable renewable energies. baseline aiming for a cost efficient integration of offshore wind capacity and to ensure system adequacy. ©2020 Navigant Netherlands B.V.. All Rights Reserved 3 Executive summary/readers guide Setting the scene and starting point of analysis • The study at hand focuses on the NSEC countries and the situation of the year 2050 • The electricity and gas transmission grids are modelled in a simplified way using a only. Pathways from today until 2050 for different evaluated integration routes for ~ transportation model approach, meaning that e.g. in the case of electricity 180 GW offshore wind capacity were not yet considered. transmission, Kirchhoff’s law is neglected whereby flows are only constrained by the • The focus of the study is on the electricity system while at the same time considering respective maximum grid transfer capacity. Furthermore, transmission grids are the wider energy system and the industrial sector view to some extent to allow for approximated by a limited number of regions: 50 in total for the NSEC area. The sector-coupling, without detailing future demand for hydrogen, synthetic
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