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Bird Species and Climate Change © WWF-Australia Bird Species and Climate Change © WWF-Australia. All Rights Reserved. This document (version 1.0) is based on a report “Bird Species and Climate Change” prepared by Climate Risk Pty Ltd, international specialists in climate change risk management. For the complete report visit www.climaterisk.net. Climate Risk Europe Limited London: + 44 0 8144 4510 Manchester: + 44 16 173 474 Climate Risk Pty Limited (Australia) Sydney: + 61 8003 4514 Brisbane: + 61 7 310 4513 Authors Janice Wormworth BSc MA Dr Karl Mallon BSc PhD + 61 41 57 51 WWF - Australia GPO Box 58 Sydney, NSW, Australia 001 Tel: +61 981 5515 wwf.org.au www.panda.org/climate Published November 006 by World Wide Fund for Nature Australia. Any reproduction in full or in part of this publication must mention the title and credit the above-mentioned publisher as the copyright owner. The opinions expressed in this publication are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of WWF. Cover image © WWF-Canon, Kevin Schafer Designed by Digital Eskimo www.digitaleskimo.net Bird Species and Climate Change: Global Status Report Bird Species and Climate Change A Summary of The Global Status Report This summary outlines the findings of “Birds Species and Climate Change”, a report to WWF by Climate Risk Pty Ltd, which provides a global analysis of current and future impacts of climate change on birds. The report reviews more than 200 research reports to assemble a clear and consistent picture of climatic risk to this important animal group, illustrated with numerous examples and case studies. The report finds that 1) climate change now In future, climate change will also affect birds affects bird species’ behaviour, ranges and indirectly by altering their habitats via sea level population dynamics; ) some bird species rise, changes in fire regimes, and changes are already experiencing strong negative in vegetation or land use. For example, impacts from climate change; and 3) in future, Europe’s Mediterranean coastal wetlandsiii, subject to greenhouse gas emissions levels critical habitat for migratory birds, could be and climatic response, climate change will completely destroyed by the 080s with 1.5 to put large numbers bird species at risk of 4.˚C of warmingiv. extinction, with estimates of extinction rates varying from to 7 per cent1, depending on the region, climate scenario and potential for How birds respond to birds to shift to new habitat.i 2 climate change “Differential changes among Why does climate change species could easily be disruptive 1 affect birds? to communities, which in turn “Climate change affects would most likely alter the structure ecosystems, habitats and species and functioning of most, if not all, with increasing velocity and of the world’s ecosystems.” continuity.” Root and Hughes, 005 Bairlein & Hüppop, 004 Shifts in timing of important life cycle events, and shifts in ranges, are two major ways Altered temperature, precipitation and that birds and their ecological communities moisture, a generally more variable climate, are already displaying a strong response to and more extreme weather are hallmarks climate change. Importantly, these responses, of climate change that directly affect birds. in turn, pose further threats and risks of their Highly sensitive to weatherii, birds are the own to birds.v quintessential “canaries in the coal mine”, and are already responding to current levels of climate change. 1. I.e., a 2-3 per cent extinction rate for Mexican bird species under a minimum climate scenario assuming bird species are able to disperse to new, climatically suitable space; and a 49-72 per cent extinction rate for birds in Australia’s Wet Tropics bioregion under a maximum climate change scenario, again assuming dispersal is possible (from Thomas et al., 2004). 3 Bird Species and Climate Change: Global Status Report Photo:KevinSchafer,WWF Canon© Climate change could make Canada’s largest puffin breeding colony unsuitable for the tufted puffin. 2.1 Shifts in timing These timing shifts threaten birds when The early warning signs of climate change important life cycle events fall out of step are already evident in shifts in the timing of with plants and insects they interact with or important seasonal bird behaviours. Many depend upon. These effects are expected bird species now arrive in spring breeding to “disrupt the structure and functioning of v grounds earlier, and lay eggs earlier, in most, if not all, the world’s ecosystems.” In response to warming. One analysis of 64 Canada’s northern Hudson Bay, for example, studies on birds and other groups found mosquitoes appear and reach peak numbers that birds had advanced timing for such earlier in the spring -- an effect thought to be spring phenomenon at an average rate of linked to ongoing climate change. However, 6.6 days per decadev. In Europe, some birds seabirds breeding there have not adjusted (which normally migrate) have even stopped their behaviour, and the combination of heat migrating altogether.vi and mosquitoes is causing higher egg loss and greater adult mortality.vii 4 Bird Species and Climate Change: Global Status Report Long-distance migratory birds face elevated climate change risk Long-distance migratory birds, already in decline in Europe and North America, are removed from food sources at other parts of their migratory path and cannot predict changes there. Some species are therefore unable to advance their arrival date in spring breeding grounds sufficiently to track availability of their prey, i.e. insects, which may peak earlier due to climatic warming. This exposes long-distance migratory birds to a greater climate change threat than resident birds. In the Netherlands, this mismatch has led to declines of up to 90 per cent in some populations of pied flycatchers over the past two decades. These long-distance migratory birds are nesting more quickly after their spring arrival in Europe. However, because their arrival dates are relatively unchanged, they are unable to nest and breed sufficiently quickly to match nestlings’ food demands with peak insect supplies, which now occur earlier. viii Photo:Michel Terrettaz, WWFCanon© Climate change could reduce the arctic breeding range of the Siberian crane by 70%. This long-distance migratory bird is already critically endangered 5 Bird Species and Climate Change: Global Status Report 2.2 Shifting and shrinking ranges expected to cause rates of change that will “Rapid movement of climatic zones exceed the ability of many plants and animals xii is going to be another stress on to migrate or adapt. wildlife … In effect we are pushing In the USA, future range shifts from unabated them off the planet.” global warming are expected to cause a net 3 James Hansen, NASA Goddard Institute for decrease in neotropical migrant bird species Space Studies, 006 in every region, including a 30 and 9 per cent net decline in the number of bird species in Significant evidence now shows that birds, the eastern Midwest and Great Lakes regions and other animals and plants, are shifting their respectively.xiii ranges in response to climate change, with bird species shifting pole-ward, or to higher In Europe, the endangered Spanish imperial altitudes in tropical mountains.ix In future, eagle, currently found mainly in natural the extent of such shifts is expected to be reserves and parks, is expected to lose its considerable; for example, some European entire current range.x Furthermore, new birds are expected to undergo range climatically suitable areas may not provide boundary shifts of more than 1,000 km.x, sufficient undisturbed and protected areas Crucially, range contractions are expected to to support it. The Scottish highland habitat be more frequent than range expansions.iii,x ,xi , of the capercaillie, the world’s largest grouse, is expected to shrink 99 per cent, virtually 2.2.1 Direct effect of range shifts eliminating UK habitat for this bird by 050 if a “… species with low adaptability high global warming scenario comes to pass.xiv and/or dispersal capability will be caught by the dilemma of climate- 2.2.2 Indirect effects of range shifts forced range change and low “… well-balanced bird communities likelihood of finding distant habitats as we know them will likely be torn to colonize, ultimately resulting in apart. As species move, they may increased extinction rates” have to deal with different prey, Walther, 00 predators and competitors as well as habitats that are less than ideal.” Birds’ ability to shift to new, climatically Terry Root, Stanford University Center for suitable ranges may be complicated Environmental Science and Policy by landscapes which are fragmented or rendered unsuitable due to human land As they respond to climate change, birds and use. Furthermore, many centres of species the species they interact with are unlikely to richness for birds are currently located in shift as intact communities, because each protected areas, from which birds may be species’ response will be unique. This means forced by climatic changes into unprotected natural communities will be re-organised or zones.iii Island and mountain birds may simply “reshuffled”. Birds may come into contact with have nowhere to go, as they are confined to different prey species, predators, parasites increasingly smaller patches of habitat. In and competitors.v These indirect effects of addition, even moderate climate change is climate change are expected to produce further, still stronger changes of their own.xvi 2. Under mid-level global warming of 2.5˚C by 2100. 3. Species which breed in North America but migrate south to the neotropics of Central and South America, southern USA and Mexico. 6 Bird Species and Climate Change: Global Status Report Major contraction predicted for world’s most productive duck habitat In North America, extreme range contractions are predicted for the Prairie Pothole Region of the Northern Great Plains, where 50-80 per cent of the continent’s ducks breed.
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