WEEKLY REPORT 22 – 28 January 2021

KEY DYNAMICS

Escalations and economy in the south ...... 2

Latest escalation in Dar’a risks destabilizing western countryside ...... 2

Central Bank issues new 5,000 SYP bank note 3

ISIS resurgence ...... 4

ISIS attacks two female council member in Al-Hasakeh 4

Turkish presence, northwest ...... 5

Turkish military establishes posts south of the M4 highway ...... 5

Cover photo; Graffiti in Dar'a city, a key symbol of anti-government protest in 2011

MERCY CORPS HUMANITARIAN ACCESS WEEKLY REPORT, 22 – 28 January 2020  1

Escalations and economy in the south Tribal clashes in Tafas then escalated on 13 January, and were noted as unprecedented for Latest escalation in Dar’a risks their scale and ferocity. destabilizing western Tensions rose further on 21 January, when the countryside 4th Division began deploying troops, tanks and Rising tensions between the Syrian Arab Army’s other military vehicles to several areas of elite 4th Division (led by Maher al-Assad, Mzeireb subdistrict including Tafas, Yadudeh younger brother to Bashar) and unreconciled and Mzeireb. Deployments continued until 26 opposition fighters in several towns and January with the apparent aim of partially municipalities in western Dar’a could threaten to surrounding these municipalities. destabilize the area. There have reportedly been some attempted Following an outbreak of tribal clashes in Tafas advances by the 4th Division since their (Mzeireb subdistrict) in late December, 4th deployment, for example on Yadudah, although Division representatives met with western they have been met with coordinated defence by Dar’a’s Central Committee, made up of former former opposition units. opposition figures and commanders, and claimed Earlier this week, Russian military officers met that the committee had demonstrated its with Central Committee figures and requested inability to properly maintain stability in the that they hand over six commanders who would area. The 4th Division also reportedly claimed then be transported to opposition-held areas of that ISIS and Hurras ad-Din cells were present in the northwest. The Russians reportedly the area, before demanding that former threatened to bombard Tafas if their demands opposition fighters halt assassinations targeting were not met, and on 26 and 27 January Syrian 4th Division commanders and fighters which, in jets (but possibly Russian aircraft as well) carried recent weeks, have increased, according to out a number of low-altitude fly-overs, possibly media reports. to emphasise the threat issued in the meeting.

You might have missed; On 27 January, the Central Committee formally rejected the Russians’ demand.  Regional economies and COVID-19 HAT is closely monitoring the situation in  Depreciation, wages and affordability western Dar’a, and will shortly release a report  Al-Hol evacuation detailing recent events and possible future trajectories. One key consideration moving  US elections, could threaten? forwards will be how the Russian-backed 5th Corps, based in eastern Dar’a, will respond.

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Central Bank issues new 5,000 SYP banknote

On 24 January, the Central Bank of announced via its official Facebook page that it was commencing circulation of a new 5,000 SYP banknote, the highest denomination so far.

The Central Bank affirmed that the banknotes were printed in 2019 to “ensure ease in cash transactions… and contribute to countering the effects of inflation.”

Dr Muhammad Samer Khalil, the economy and foreign trade minister, stated in an interview that the new banknote will not lead to inflation, Initial images of the new 5,000 SYP banknote pointing to improvements in the economy last inclusion of a photo of a soldier saluting the year. He was supported by Riyal Abdul Raouf, the Syrian flag on the banknote, given many anti- deputy finance minister, who stated that the government equate the symbol of banknote was aimed at reducing the quantity of soldiers to state repression. Activists even hard cash carried by civilians, and at the same photoshopped images of soldiers time allowing the government to store larger looting furniture and placed them on the new amounts of cash and hence reducing the quantity banknote. of other banknotes from circulation. For its part, the Turkish-backed Syrian Interim Locals and activists Government in the were quick to ridicule northwest issued a the decision, with decree on 25 January many stating prohibiting the use sarcastically that and distribution of their salaries will now the 5,000 SYP note in be paid in several areas under its 5,000 SYP notes control, reiterating its (indicating the low previously initiated incomes and lack of ban on the 2,000 SYP governmental note, which was livelihood support). Syria Report, from Twitter; Images showing army officers released in 2017. Others scoffed at the looting placed over official image of soldier

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Continued economic woe of the civil council in Tal Shayr (Al Hol subdistrict) in the southern Al-Hasakeh The introduction of the banknote is a clear countryside, and Hind Latif Al-Khader, head of admission by the Syrian government that the the economic committee in the council. state of the economy continues to deteriorate, with official monetary policies still The two council members had recently unable to find a solution to rampant inflation, reportedly been on the receiving-end of several depreciating currency values and rising black- death threats from ISIS – the threats were issued market rates. against their work and relations with Kurdish officials in the Self-Administration, as well as It is important to note, also, that while the meetings they attended with men. The families government introduced the new banknote, it did of the two victims reported that masked men not withdraw smaller denominations from raided their homes and kidnapped them on 22 circulation as stated, potentially increasing the January, transporting them to an unknown risk of inflation (due to increased cash available destination, before decapitating them and in the economy). Further, while the Central Bank leaving their bodies on the road. stated that the banknotes were originally printed two years ago, inflation began in earnest ISIS activity in the southern countryside of Al- around 14 months ago, bringing into question Hasakeh, particularly in the subdistricts of the authenticity of the statement given. Shadadah and Markada, which are in close proximity to the Tawamin region of the Syrian Across the country, what followed the Central Badia desert, already home to a number of ISIS Bank’s announcement was a depreciation of the sleeper cells, is steadily growing. It is expected on the black market, with local that ISIS will continue to conduct attacks in the sources reporting the exchange rate reaching up region targeting Self-Administration employees to 2,990 SYP per USD across Syria, such as in and terrorizing the local population. government-held Deir-ez-Zor city and Dar’a, Self-Administration-held Ar-Raqqa city, and ISIS threatens to free its prisoners Syrian Salvation Government-held Idleb city. A few days earlier, ISIS released a video titled: ISIS resurgence ‘We haven’t forgotten about you’, in which the organization’s current spokesman, Abou Hamza ISIS attacks two female council Al-Qurashi, promised the group would secure members in Al-Hasakeh the release – by force – of captive ISIS prisoners. The video showcased old footage of ISIS fighters On 23 January, two female local council storming prisons across Syria and Iraq, and members were found dead on the main road in releasing dozens of prisoners. Disheisha (Markada subdistrict). The victims were identified as Saada Al-Hermas, the co-chair

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This is particularly concerning given the large ended by evacuating the last observation point number of suspected ISIS prisoners in Syrian in Syrian government-held areas in Tal Tuqan Democratic Forces (SDF) jails in the countryside (Abul Thohur subdistrict) east of Saraqeb city on of Al-Hasakeh, many of whom are reportedly 30 December. being held in dire conditions, a point ISIS highlights to its followers. Implications of Turkish movements The new deployment of Turkish forces south of As such, the video could be concerning and the M4 has created two defense lines near the possibly foreshadowing any ISIS infiltration on frontlines of Syrian government forces, with 14 SDF prisons. Neither the SDF nor the Self- new posts in the form of a chain, all located in Administration has commented as yet, or taken strategic areas that overlook large areas of the any additional security measures in the prisons. Idleb and Hama countryside. These posts include Turkish presence, northwest multiple types of weaponry, and differently skilled armed forces which enable both defense Turkish military establishes new and attack operations, making any possible posts south of the M4 highway military operation by Syrian government forces more difficult. On 22 January, the Turkish army established two new military posts in Sahel al-Ghab in northern The withdrawal of Turkish observation posts Hama, the first Turkish presence in this area. The from government-held areas and their new posts were established in the village of redeployment in areas of southern Idleb has not Qastun (Ziyara subdistrict): The first one within been met with any official comment from Russia Qastun school and the second at Qastun hill, or Turkey. which has a strategic location overlooking the Some experts believe that the latest southern Idleb countryside and western movements could be the result of a new countryside of Hama, in addition to Syrian understanding between presidents Vladmir government positions in northern Hama’s Jurin. Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan with regards to The Turkish military started reinforcing and dynamics in Idleb, after their talks in Ankara last establishing new military posts across southern September. If this is the case, it will likely be Idleb, particularly around the M4 highway and followed by greater Russian flexibility in Jabal Al-Zawiya region, following the northeast Syria, where the Turkish-backed dismantling of other observation posts from Syrian National Army (SNA) launched, late last government-held areas from October 2020. year, a series of escalating offensives against the Turkish forces began the withdrawal with the SDF in northern Ar-Raqqa’s Ain Issa. Murak observation post north of Hama, and

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CONTACT Nicholas Bodanac Humanitarian Access Team [email protected]

The Humanitarian Access Team (HAT) was established in Beirut in March 2015 in response to the collective challenges facing the remote humanitarian response in Syria. Successful humanitarian and development interventions require a nuanced and objective understanding of the human ecosystems in which these interventions occur. To this end, the HAT’s most important function is to collect, triangulate, synthesize, analyze and operationalize disparate data and information. Since 2015, HAT analysis has provided a forward-looking template for international interventions in Syria, and facilitated an increasingly nimble, adaptive, integrated, and ultimately impactful international response to the Syrian conflict.