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Global Perspectives Jolleymark@Ccbintl.Com Fixed Income Strategy | August 8, 2019 FIXED INCOME STRATEGY | July 31, 2019 Mark Jolley Global Strategist (852) 3911 8255 Global Perspectives [email protected] Have bonds become a mania? Diliu Yao (852) 3911 8269 [email protected] 目前，美国债券市场参与者之间的观点存在着很大的分歧。有人认 The bond rally looks increasingly speculative 为美国债券收益率将有很大下跌；有人认为债市即将发生重大逆 转。 Republic of Austria 100 Year Bond (Sep 2117) Price 从长期来看，我们怀疑债券多头可能是正确的。但是，如何资产配 200 置可能是个问题。美国国债期货的每日投资情绪指数保持五个交易 190 日百分百看涨。 这是自 2008 年 12 月 16 日后，该指数创下新的高 180 值。当年 11 月 25 日美联储宣布将购买资产抵押债券, 并改变了市 170 場对貨市政策的看法, 从而演示了市场的极端配置；使 30 年国債 160 息率急跌 (至 12 月 18 日的低位）,并在随后的６个月反弹 200 多 150 个基点。而这一切发生在美国经济衰退且在随后的三个月美股大 140 泄。 130 2008 年的经验警告我们，无论基本面如何，极端资产配置都可能推 120 动收益率走高。我们相信我们正在接近这样的极端。我们更倾向于 110 Jan-19 Mar-19 May-19 Jul-19 Sep-1 关注短期的曲线陡峭程度。信用利差很脆弱，我们认为未来几个月 企业发行人的条件将进一步恶化。 Source: Gallup, CCBIS Bond market opinion is deeply divided Global bond performance Opinion among US bond market participants is deeply divided between All returns are in US dollar those who believe US bond yields still have a long way to fall and those who believe a major reversal is imminent. Most investors fall into one of Yield Yield Return Return these extremes. Interest rate bulls do not necessarily expect recession Bond Index Performance* (today) (end '18) (5 day) (YTD) but see the spread of negative interest rates as an inevitable Global Treasury 0.7% 1.3% 2.1% 6.8% consequence of broadening economic stagnation. This week’s US Treasury 1.7% 2.6% 1.4% 7.4% aggressive rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is a good example of this relentless trend. Most bulls also believe that collapsing Euro Sovereign 0.0% 0.7% 2.7% 7.2% Treasury yields will contain credit spreads. Bears, on the other hand, Japan Sovereign 0.0% 0.2% 3.0% 6.9% believe the bond rally has become a mania. The Republic of Austria 100 EM USD Sovereign (ex-China) 5.4% 6.6% 0.3% 12.3% Year Bond is seen as the poster child of this mania. This bond has rallied Asia USD Credit 4.2% 5.5% 0.2% 9.4% 64% year-to-date and looks increasingly speculative. Bears focus on the EM Local Sovereign + China 3.7% 4.2% -1.0% 3.4% idea that US bonds are a carry trade and thus subject to currency risk China Sovereign (onshore) 3.0% 3.2% -1.4% 0.2% should the US dollar turn. They focus on the high degree of leverage in China Corporate (onshore) 3.9% 4.3% -1.7% 0.9% fixed income investment. Unlike the bulls, they see considerable risk to credit spreads coming from negative rates. In particular, negative rates Change Change are a bank killer, and are forcing banks to take increasing risk to stay G3 bond market cap (US$ b) Latest End '18 5 day (YTD) alive. Japanese banks are voracious buyers of US dollar bonds, CLOs EM Asia USD Credit Index 990.1 849.3 +1 +141 and other leveraged debt structures. What happens if they become - High grade 733.5 650.5 +6 +83 forced sellers? - High yield 256.6 198.8 -5 +58 Positioning matters, even if the bulls are right Yield Yield Return Return Longer term, we suspect the bond bulls are probably right. However, the Credit Performance (USD) (today) (end ‘18) (5 day) (YTD) bulls are massively in the majority and this suggests positioning might be EM Asia Overall USD Credit 4.22% 5.51% 0.2% 9.4% a problem. The Daily Sentiment Index of US T-bond futures, for example, EM China Overall USD Credit 3.99% 5.17% 0.1% 8.4% has been 100% bullish for five consecutive sessions. The only time that US Corp Investment Grade 2.96% 4.20% 0.8% 12.2% consecutive sentiment readings have been higher was on 16 Dec 2008. EM Asia USD Invest Grade Corp 3.04% 4.27% 0.6% 9.5% This extreme occurred after the Fed announced it would begin buying US Corp High Yield Corp 6.27% 7.95% -1.0% 9.4% asset-backed securities on 25 Nov. This news signaled the start of radical EM Asia USD High Yield 7.03% 8.99% -0.8% 10.1% monetary policy, causing the US 30-year bond yield to collapse almost 150 bp. The extreme sentiment readings leading up to 16 Dec, however, Spread Spread – Change Change revealed extreme positioning. The 30-year bond yield reached a low on Credit Spreads (OAS) (today) (end ’18) (5 day) (YTD) 18 Dec and rose more than 200 bp in the following six months even though the US was in recession and notwithstanding a 27% collapse in US EM Asia Overall USD Credit 259.5 290.5 +23 -31 stock prices in the following three months. EM China Overall USD Credit 239.4 262.1 +19 -23 US Corp Investment Grade 121.7 153.1 +13 -31 Implications for bond investors and issuers EM Asia USD Invest. Grade Corp 140.7 166.8 +13 -26 US Corp High Yield Corp 440.3 526.0 +68 -86 The experience of 2008 warns that extreme positioning can drive yields higher regardless of fundamentals. We believe we are approaching EM Asia USD High Yield 543.1 640.2 +62 -97 such an extreme. We prefer short duration with curve steepeners. Credit * Bloomberg Barclays bond indexes spreads are vulnerable and we believe that conditions for corporate Source: Bloomberg, CCBIS issuers will continue to deteriorate in coming months. 1 Strategy | August 8, 2019 Weekly chart set – high yield spreads The high yield spread reflects economic conditions Aggressive spread widening need not require a recession Spread bp Spread bp 2000 10 2000 * Economic conditions 1800 is a combination of the 1800 ISM Index and jobless 8 claims 1600 1600 6 1400 1400 1200 4 1200 1000 1000 2 800 800 600 0 600 400 400 -2 200 200 0 -4 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 0 US HY Credit Spread US Current Economic Conditions*(rhs) 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 NBER Recession Bloomberg Barclays HY Spread Source: Bloomberg, CCBIS Source: Bloomberg, CCBIS Falling bank valuations can warn of widening credit spreads The crude oil price remains an important driver of US spreads 400 900 20 1,200 30 1,100 800 40 1,000 600 700 50 900 60 800 600 800 70 700 500 80 600 400 90 500 1000 100 400 300 110 300 1200 200 120 200 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 Systemically Important Bank Index (Inverse scale) West Texas Crude (Inverse scale) High Yield Spread (rh scale) High Yield Spread (rh scale) Source: Bloomberg, CCBIS Source: Bloomberg, CCBIS 2 Strategy | August 8, 2019 Investment grade winners and losers Top gainers Top losers Name Price (31 Jul) 5D price change Name Price (31 Jul) 5D price change Sinopec Grp Over 4.1% 1945 106.18 1.19% Zhaohai Invst 4% 2020 98.53 -0.32% Nexen Inc 7.5% 1939 151.64 1.09% Rongshi Intl Fin 3.625% 2027 103.07 -0.24% CNOOC Fin 2013 L 4.25% 1943 108.09 1.07% Cosl Sg Capital 4.5% 2025 106.56 -0.23% CNPC HK Overseas 5.95% 1941 131.97 1.06% HK Xiangyu Inv 4.5% 2023 98.31 -0.21% Sinopec Capital 4.25% 1943 107.25 1.02% BJ State Ast Hk 4.125% 2025 103.17 -0.19% Tencent Holdings 3.925% 1938 103.05 1.00% Chongqing Energy 5.625% 2022 103.12 -0.18% Alibaba Group 4% 1937 104.46 0.99% CHN Oversea Fin 5.375% 2023 109.34 -0.18% Sinopec Grp Over 4.875% 1942 117.43 0.96% CGNPC Intl Ltd 4% 2025 105.09 -0.18% Tencent Holdings 4.525% 1949 112.10 0.94% ICBCIL Finance 3.375% 2022 100.86 -0.18% Sinopec Overseas 4.25% 1946 108.55 0.87% Exp-Imp Bk China 2.625% 2022 100.35 -0.17% CNOOC Fin 2014 4.875% 1944 118.35 0.87% Westwood Grp 5.375% 2023 105.95 -0.17% CNOOC Fin 2011 5.75% 1941 129.71 0.85% CRCC Yuxiang Ltd 3.5% 2023 101.89 -0.17% Sinopec Group 4.6% 1948 114.91 0.84% CHN Clean Energy 4% 2025 104.83 -0.16% Sinopec Overseas 3.25% 2027 101.53 0.83% China State Con 3.375% 2022 100.39 -0.16% Sinopec Group 4.25% 2028 109.38 0.82% ICBCIL Finance 3.75% 2024 102.98 -0.15% Country Garden 7.25% 2026 105.46 0.82% CQ Logistics Dev 3.25% 2021 96.92 -0.15% Sinopec Overseas 4% 1947 104.28 0.80% Exp-Imp Bk China 2.75% 2022 100.78 -0.15% CNOOC Fin 2012 5% 1942 119.49 0.79% Weibo Corp 3.5% 2024 100.27 -0.14% Sinopec Grp Over 5.375% 1943 125.82 0.79% CNAC HK Finbrid 3.375% 2024 100.05 -0.12% Nexen Inc 5.875% 1935 125.02 0.78% CITIC Ltd 6.8% 2023 112.05 -0.12% Alibaba Group 4.2% 1947 106.35 0.74% GLP China 4.974% 2024 104.88 -0.12% Nexen Inc 6.4% 1937 133.38 0.73% CHN Const Bk/Hk 3% 2022 100.81 -0.12% Sinopec Overseas 3.625% 2027 104.10 0.71% CNAC HK Finbrid 3.875% 2029 100.95 -0.12% Country Garden 5.125% 2025 97.60 0.68% China (People'S) 3.25% 2023 104.16 -0.12% Sinopec Overseas 3.5% 2026 103.35 0.68% CNAC HK Finbrid 4.875% 2025 107.51 -0.11% Source: Bloomberg, CCBIS High yield winners and losers Top gainers Top losers Name Price (31 Jul) 5D price change Name Price (31 Jul) 5D price change New Metro Global 6.5% 2021 95.04 2.65% Tewoo Group No 5 5.8% 35.83 -10.83% China Evergrande 8.75% 2025 89.21 1.47% Zhongrong Int 7.25% 2020 65.01 -3.16% Sino Ocean Land 4.9% 89.43 1.25% Nuoxi Capital 5.35% 2023 86.44 -1.66% China Evergrande 10.5% 2024 97.01 1.23% Guorui Propertie 13.5% 2022 100.63 -1.02% Franshion Brilla 5.75% 97.19 1.19% 361 Degrees Intl 7.25% 2021 84.04 -0.77% Scenery Journey 13.75% 2023 105.72 0.96% Modern Land Chn 15.5% 2020 103.83 -0.75% China Evergrande 7.5% 2023 91.95 0.91% Modern Land Chn 7.95% 2021 92.00 -0.60% CFLD Cayman Inv 8.6% 2024 101.49 0.81% Tsinghua Unic 5.375% 2023 94.86 -0.54% China Evergrande 9.5% 2024 94.74 0.81% Kaisa Group 11.25% 2022 103.17 -0.53% King Talent Mgmt 5.6% 87.87 0.78% Tuspark Forward 6.95% 2022 97.88 -0.44% China Evergrande 10% 2023 98.43 0.74% Tsinghua Unic 4.75% 2021 97.50 -0.43% Wanda Properties 7.25% 2024 99.85 0.73% Hejun Shunze Inv 11% 2020 101.33 -0.41% Agile Group 6.7% 2022 103.78 0.68% Unigroup Int 6% 2020 99.94 -0.35% Scenery Journey 13% 2022 105.31 0.66% Tuspark Forward 7.9% 2021 101.87 -0.32% China Aoyuan Grp 8.5% 2022 105.30 0.61% Tuspark Forward 7.95% 2021 102.06 -0.20% Yuzhou Propertie
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