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Tight Senate Race in Kentucky

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Tight Senate Race in Kentucky FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE May 5, 2010 INTERVIEWS: DEAN DEBNAM 888-621-6988 / 919-880-4888 (serious media inquiries only please, other questions can be directed to Tom Jensen) QUESTIONS ABOUT THE POLL: TOM JENSEN 919-744-6312 Tight Senate Race in Kentucky Raleigh, N.C. – Despite leading in their respective primaries, Rand Paul and Dan Mongiardo look weaker in potential November matchups for Jim Bunning’s Senate seat than do challengers Jack Conway and Trey Grayson. Grayson has almost identical leads over each of the Democrats, 42-34 over Conway and 43-35 over Mongiardo. But Paul is ahead of Conway only 41-40 and Mongiardo 42-38. These slim leads for the conservative challenger come despite a near majority, 49%, of Kentucky voters labeling themselves conservatives. Among those voters, the Republican nominee makes no difference, but Mongiardo and, particularly, Conway draw more of the moderate and liberal vote against Paul than against Grayson. Paul does fare slightly better than Grayson among independents. Mongiardo is viewed worst among the four candidates, with only 24% having a positive view of him, to 36% with a negative opinion. Paul is also viewed poorly, 28-35. Reflecting their stronger standing in general election matches, feelings on the other two are split, 24-24 for Grayson and 20-22 for Conway. Paul is seen favorably by conservatives, 42-20, to 28-25 for Grayson, but Paul is seen twice as negatively among moderates, 46% to 23% for Grayson. Yesterday’s PPP release showed a 68% approval for the goals of the Tea Party movement among Republicans, but the overall Kentucky electorate shows only a 45-34 approval rating, with a mere 18% of Kentucky voters saying they are members of the movement. “Democrats are looking a good deal more competitive in this race than they did four months ago,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “If Rand Paul wins the Republican nomination it could really end up as a top tier contest.” PPP surveyed 946 Kentucky voters on May 1st and 2nd. The margin of error for the survey was +/-3.2%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify. If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888. ### Public Policy Polling Phone: 888 621-6988 3020 Highwoods Blvd. Web: www.publicpolicypolling.com Raleigh, NC 27604 Email: [email protected] Kentucky Survey Results Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Barack Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion Obama’s job performance? If you approve, of Trey Grayson? press 1. If you disapprove, press 2. If you’re Favorable........................................................ 24% not sure, press 3. Unfavorable .................................................... 24% Approve................. 37% Not Sure................ 4% Not sure .......................................................... 52% Disapprove............ 59% Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion Q2 Do you support or oppose President Obama’s of Dan Mongiardo? health care plan, or do you not have an opinion? If you support it, press 1. If you Favorable........................................................ 24% oppose it, press 2. If you don’t have an opinion, Unfavorable .................................................... 36% press 3. Not Sure.......................................................... Support ........................................................... 32% 40% Oppose ........................................................... Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion 59% of Rand Paul? No Opinion...................................................... 9% Favorable........................................................ 28% Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mitch Unfavorable .................................................... 35% McConnell’s job performance? Not sure .......................................................... Approve .................. 43% Not sure .................. 14% 37% Disapprove.............. Q10 If the candidates for US Senate this fall were 43% Democrat Jack Conway and Republican Trey Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Jim Grayson, who would you vote for? Bunning’s job performance? Jack Conway .................................................. 34% Approve .......................................................... 30% Trey Grayson.................................................. 42% Disapprove...................................................... 45% Undecided....................................................... 24% Not Sure.......................................................... 25% Q11 If the candidates for US Senate this fall were Q5 Do you have a higher opinion of Mitch Democrat Jack Conway and Republican Rand McConnell or Jim Bunning? Paul, who would you vote for? Mitch McConnell ............................................. 48% Jack Conway .................................................. 40% Jim Bunning .................................................... 21% Rand Paul....................................................... 41% Not sure .......................................................... 31% Undecided....................................................... 19% Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion Q12 If the candidates for US Senate this fall were of Jack Conway? Democrat Dan Mongiardo and Republican Trey Favorable........................................................ 20% Grayson, who would you vote for? Dan Mongiardo ............................................... 35% Unfavorable .................................................... 22% Trey Grayson.................................................. 43% Not Sure.......................................................... 58% Undecided....................................................... 22% May 1-2, 2010 3020 Highwoods Blvd. Survey of 946 Kentucky voters Raleigh, NC 27604 [email protected] / 888 621-6988 Q13 If the candidates for US Senate this fall were Q17 Would you describe yourself as a liberal, Democrat Dan Mongiardo and Republican moderate, or conservative? If liberal, press 1. If Rand Paul, who would you vote for? moderate, press 2. If conservative, press 3. Dan Mongiardo ............................................... 38% Liberal............................................................. 13% Rand Paul....................................................... 42% Moderate......................................................... 38% Undecided....................................................... 19% Conservative................................................... 49% Q14 Do you support or oppose the goals of the ‘Tea Q18 If you are a woman, press 1, if a man, press 2. Party’ movement? Woman ........................................................... 53% Support ........................................................... 45% Man................................................................. 47% Oppose ........................................................... 34% Q19 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If you are a Not sure .......................................................... 21% Republican, press 2. If you are an independent or identify with another party, press 3. Q15 Do you personally identify as a member of the ‘Tea Party’ movement? Democrat ........................................................ 50% Yes ................................................................. 18% Republican...................................................... 40% No................................................................... 58% Independent/OtherIndependent/Other.................................................................................... 10% Not SuSurere.................................................................................................................... 24% Q20 If you are white, press 1. If African American, press 2. If other, press 3. Q16 Who did you vote for President last year? If John McCain, press 1. If Barack Obama, White .............................................................. 88% press 2. If someone else or you don’t African American ............................................ 8% remember, press 3. Other............................................................... 4% McCain............................................................ 54% Obama............................................................ Q21 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If 37% you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65, Someone else/don't remember ....................... 9% press 3. If older, press 4. 18 to 29........................................................... 8% 30 to 45........................................................... 26% 46 to 65........................................................... 43% Older than 65 .................................................. 23% May 1-2, 2010 3020 Highwoods Blvd. Survey of 946 Kentucky voters Raleigh, NC 27604 [email protected] / 888 621-6988 Crosstabs 2008 Vote 2008 Vote Someone else/don't Someone else/don't Bas e McCain Obam a remember Bas e McCain Obam a remember Obama Approval He alth Car e Approve 37% 6% 85% 23% Support 32% 4% 75% 17% Disapprove 59% 91% 11% 64% Oppose 59% 91% 14% 58% Not Sur e 4% 3% 4% 13% No Opinion 9% 5% 11% 25% 2008 Vote 2008 Vote Someone else/don't Someone else/don't Bas e McCain Obam a remember Bas e McCain Obam a remember McConnell Approval
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