The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
Load more
Recommended publications
-
The Workshop on Digital Currency Economics and Policy Is Jointly Organised by the Asian Bureau of Finance and Economic Resea
“The Workshop on Digital Currency Economics and Policy is jointly organised by the Asian Bureau of Finance and Economic Research (ABFER), the National University of Singapore (NUS) Business School and MAS. This Workshop, to be held in conjunction with the Singapore FinTech Festival 2018, aims to focus applied economic and financial research efforts on the implications of digital currencies for monetary policy and the financial system. It seeks to provide a platform for established academics in their mainstream areas of monetary and financial economics to apply their expertise to analysing the implications of digital currencies, and to encourage discussions on how the existing frameworks and paradigms of thinking about monetary and financial policies can be extended to incorporate this new technology-enabled development.” Competition amongst monies has a long history. Private or foreign money, if trusted, can serve as a medium of exchange, store of value and unit of account, alongside or even displacing, government-issued monies. Recent technological advancement has lowered the barriers to entry for users to create private digital instruments that behave like currencies, often without any issuer. Many of these have market prices (which reflect the value that holders assign to them) and are accepted by some merchants as payment for goods and services. Correspondingly, multiple private monies, called digital currencies, have emerged. While their economic significance is still debatable, the phenomenon raises many important monetary policy and regulatory issues. Digital monies can impact an economy, affect transaction arrangements and efficiency, and disrupt financial intermediation and related business models – especially in banking. They may modulate the relationship between traditional fiat money and price, savings and investment behaviour, and also expand avenues for illegal transactions. -
CV Online Lkyspp.Sg/Dannyquah Google Scholar Citations
Danny Quah Citizenship: UK Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy Place of birth: Malaysia National University of Singapore Married, 2 sons [email protected] Latest version of this CV online lkyspp.sg/dannyquah Google Scholar Citations June 2021 Professional Experience May 2018– • Dean and Li Ka Shing Professor in Economics, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, NUS Jul 2017–Apr 2018 • Vice Dean (Academic Affairs) and Li Ka Shing Professor in Economics, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, NUS Jul 2016– • Li Ka Shing Professor in Economics, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, NUS Jan 2015–Jul 2016 • Senior Adviser to Director, LSE Aug 2014–Jul 2016 • Director, Saw Swee Hock Southeast Asia Centre, LSE Aug 2013–Jul 2016 • Professor of Economics and International Development, LSE May 2013–Jul 2014 • Director, Kuwait Research Programme, LSE Jan 2012–Jul 2014 • Kuwait Professor, LSE Oct 2009–Jul 2011 • Co-Director, LSE Global Governance Aug 2006–Sep 2009 • Head of Department, Economics, LSE Oct 1996–Jul 2016 • Professor of Economics, LSE Jul 1991–Sep 1992 • Lecturer, then Reader, LSE Economics Department Jul 1985–Jun 1991 • Assistant Professor of Economics, MIT Jan 2010–Jul 2016 • Tan Chin Tuan Visiting Professor, Economics Department, National University of Singapore Apr 2011 • Visiting Professor of Economics, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore May–Jun 2010 • Visiting Professor of Economics, Tsinghua University School of Economics and Management, Beijing Jul 2009–May 2011 • Council Member, Malaysia’s National Economic Advisory Council Education Ph. D. • Economics, Harvard University, June 1986. Thesis: Essays in Dynamic Macroeconometrics (su- pervisor: Thomas J. -
One Third of the World's Growth and Inequality by Danny Quah LSE Economics Department March 2002 I Thank the Macarthur Foundat
One third of the world’s growth and inequality by Danny Quah ∗ LSE Economics Department March 2002 ∗ Ithank the MacArthur Foundation for financial support. Ihave received many helpful suggestions from colleagues, including Abhi- jit Banerjee, Tim Besley, Richard Blundell, Andrew Chesher, Frank Cowell, Bill Easterly, Theo Eicher, Raquel Fernandez, Chico Ferreira, James Feyrer, Oded Galor, Cecilia Garc´ia-Pe˜nalosa, Louise Keely, and Branko Milanovic. Also useful were Clarissa Yeap’s research as- sistance in the early stages of this work and Claudia Biancotti’s Ec473 LSE seminar presentation, in the spring of 2001. All calculations and graphs were produced using LATEX and the author’s econometrics shell tsrf. One third of the world’s growth and inequality by Danny Quah LSE Economics Department March 2002 ABSTRACT This paper studies growth and inequality in China and India—two economies that account for a third of the world’s population. By modelling growth and inequality as components in a joint stochastic process, the paper calibrates the impact each has on different welfare indicators and on the personal income distribution across the joint population of the two countries. For personal income inequalities in a China-India universe, the forces assuming first-order importance are macroeconomic: Growing average incomes dominate all else. The relation between aggregate economic growth and within-country in- equality is insignificant for inequality dynamics. Keywords: China, distribution dynamics, Gini coefficient, head- count index, India, poverty, world individual income distribution JEL Classification: D30, O10, O57 Communications to: Danny Quah, Economics Department, LSE, Houghton Street, London WC2A 2AE Tel: +44/0 20 7955-7535, Email: [email protected] (URL) http://econ.lse.ac.uk/staff/dquah/ One third of the world’s growth and inequality by Danny Quah ∗ LSE Economics Department March 2002 1 Introduction Three concerns underly all research on income inequality and eco- nomic growth. -
Significance Redux
The Journal of Socio-Economics 33 (2004) 665–675 Significance redux Stephen T. Ziliaka,∗, Deirdre N. McCloskeyb,1 a School of Policy Studies, College of Arts and Sciences, Roosevelt University, Chicago, 430 S. Michigan Avenue, Chicago, IL 60605, USA b College of Arts and Science (m/c 198), University of Illinois at Chicago, 601 South Morgan, Chicago, IL 60607-7104, USA Abstract Leading theorists and econometricians agree with our two main points: first, that economic sig- nificance usually has nothing to do with statistical significance and, second, that a supermajority of economists do not explore economic significance in their research. The agreement from Arrow to Zellner on the two main points should by itself change research practice. This paper replies to our critics, showing again that economic significance is what science and citizens want and need. © 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. JEL CODES: C12; C10; B23; A20 Keywords: Hypothesis testing; Statistical significance; Economic significance Science depends on entrepreneurship, and we thank Morris Altman for his. The sympo- sium he has sparked can be important for the future of economics, in showing that the best economists and econometricians seek, after all, economic significance. Kenneth Arrow as early as 1959 dismissed mechanical tests of statistical significance in his search for eco- nomic significance. It took courage: Arrow’s teacher, the amazing Harold Hotelling, had been one of Fisher’s sharpest disciples. Now Arrow is joined by Clive Granger, Graham ∗ Corresponding author. E-mail addresses: [email protected] (S.T. Ziliak), [email protected] (D.N. McCloskey). 1 For comments early and late we thank Ted Anderson, Danny Boston, Robert Chirinko, Ronald Coase, Stephen Cullenberg, Marc Gaudry, John Harvey, David Hendry, Stefan Hersh, Robert Higgs, Jack Hirshleifer, Daniel Klein, June Lapidus, David Ruccio, Jeff Simonoff, Gary Solon, John Smutniak, Diana Strassman, Andrew Trigg, and Jim Ziliak. -
Stolper-Samuelson Time Series: Long Term US Wage Adjustment
Stolper-Samuelson Time Series: Long Term US Wage Adjustment Henry Thompson Auburn University Review of Development Economics, 2011 Factor prices adjust to product prices in the Stolper-Samuelson theorem of the factor proportions model. The present paper estimates adjustment in the average US wage to changes in prices of manufactures and services with yearly data from 1949 to 2006. Difference equation analysis is based directly on the comparative static factor proportions model. Factors of production are fixed capital assets and the labor force. Results have implications for theory and policy. Thanks for comments and suggestions go to Farhad Rassekh, Charles Sawyer, Roy Ruffin, Ron Jones, Manoj Atolia, Santanu Chaterjee, and Svetlana Demidova. Contact: Henry Thompson, Economics, Auburn University, AL 36849, 334-844-2910, fax 5999, [email protected] 1 Stolper-Samuelson Time Series: Long Term US Wage Adjustment The Stolper-Samuelson (SS, 1941) theorem concerns the effects of changing product prices on factor prices along the contract curve in the general equilibrium model of production with two factors and two products. The result is fundamental to neoclassical economics as relative product prices evolve with economic growth. The theoretical literature finding exception to the SS theorem is vast as summarized by Thompson (2003) and expanded by Beladi and Batra (2004). Davis and Mishra (2007) believe the theorem is dead due unrealistic assumptions. The scientific status of the theorem, however, depends on the empirical evidence. The empirical literature generally examines indirect evidence including trade volumes, trade openness, input ratios, relative production wages, and per capita incomes as summarized by Deardorff (1984), Leamer (1994), and Baldwin (2008). -
User Pays Applied to Pro-Life Advocates
A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Pope, Robin Working Paper The Big Picture of Lives Saved by Abortion on Demand: User Pays Applied to Pro-Life Advocates Bonn Econ Discussion Papers, No. 14/2009 Provided in Cooperation with: Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE), University of Bonn Suggested Citation: Pope, Robin (2009) : The Big Picture of Lives Saved by Abortion on Demand: User Pays Applied to Pro-Life Advocates, Bonn Econ Discussion Papers, No. 14/2009, University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE), Bonn This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/37046 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen -
Press Release Here
Asian growth under the spotlight at Conference briefing Malaysia conference Some of the world’s most respected experts on the economies of Asia are to take part in a major international conference at GEP’s Malaysia branch. Entitled Globalisation, Growth and Development in Asia, the two-day event will examine the region’s ever- increasing role in the worldwide economy. Trade agreements and reforms, production networks and the rise of China and India will be among the crucial issues under the spotlight. Delegates from the UK will be joined by fellow academics from Malaysia, Singapore, Korea, Indonesia, Taiwan, Japan and China. The conference will also host the prestigious The World Economy Asia Lecture , to be delivered by Danny Quah, Head of Department and Professor of Economics at the London School of Economics. His address, Will Asia Save the World? , will examine the region’s growing importance in the wake of the financial meltdown that has rocked the West. Malaysian-born Professor Quah has delivered lectures at the United Nations, the Hay Festival Segovia, the World Science Forum and 10 Downing Street. He is an expert on the growth throughout East and South-East Asia since the 1990s, as well as the century, accounting for pretty much the entire dramatic rise of China during the past 30 years of reduction of extreme poverty in the world.” economic reforms. Professor Chris Milner, a Professor of International In recent research he credited the region with Economics at GEP, will also discuss elements of China’s stabilising the world against “yet sharper downturns” growth, while GEP Director Professor Daniel Bernhofen by continuing to grow during periods of “short, sharp will look at aspects of the Japanese economy. -
The Causal Direction Between Money and Prices
Journal of Monetary Economics 27 (1991) 381-423. North-Holland The causal direction between money and prices An alternative approach* Kevin D. Hoover University of California, Davis, Davis, CA 94916, USA Received December 1988, final version received March 1991 Causality is viewed as a matter of control. Controllability is captured in Simon’s analysis of causality as an asymmetrical relation of recursion between variables in the unobservable data-generating process. Tests of the stability of marginal and conditional distributions for these variables can provide evidence of causal ordering. The causal direction between prices and money in the United States 1950-1985 is assessed. The balance of evidence supports the view that money does not cause prices, and that prices do cause money. 1. Introduction The debate in economics over the causal direction between money and prices is an old one. Although in modern times it had seemed largely settled in favor of the view that money causes prices, the recent interest in real *This paper is a revision of part of my earlier working paper, ‘The Logic of Causal Inference: With an Application to Money and Prices’, No. 55 of the series of working papers in the Research Program in Applied Macroeconomics and Macro Policy, Institute of Governmental Affairs, University of California. Davis. I am grateful to Peter Oownheimer. Peter Sinclair, Charles Goodhart, Thomas Mayer, Edward Garner, Thomas C&iey, Stephen LeRoy, Leon Wegge, Nancy Wulwick, Diran Bodenhom, Clive Granger, Paul Holland, the editors of this journal, an anonymous referee, and the participants in macroeconomics seminars at the Univer- sity of California, Berkeley, Fall 1986, the University of California, Davis, Fall 1988, and the University of California, Irvine, Spring 1989, for comments on this paper in its various previous incamatio;ts. -
Professor Robert F. Engle," Econometric Theory, 19, 1159-1193
Diebold, F.X. (2003), "The ET Interview: Professor Robert F. Engle," Econometric Theory, 19, 1159-1193. The ET Interview: Professor Robert F. Engle Francis X. Diebold1 University of Pennsylvania and NBER January 2003 In the past thirty-five years, time-series econometrics developed from infancy to relative maturity. A large part of that development is due to Robert F. Engle, whose work is distinguished by exceptional creativity in the empirical modeling of dynamic economic and financial phenomena. Engle’s footsteps range widely, from early work on band-spectral regression, testing, and exogeneity, through more recent work on cointegration, ARCH models, and ultra-high-frequency financial asset return dynamics. The booming field of financial econometrics, which did not exist twenty-five years ago, is built in large part on the volatility models pioneered by Engle, and their many variations and extensions, which have found widespread application in financial risk management, asset pricing and asset allocation. (We began in fall 1998 at Spruce in Chicago, the night before the annual NBER/NSF Time Series Seminar, continued in fall 2000 at Tabla in New York, continued again in summer 2001 at the Conference on Market Microstructure and High-Frequency Data in Finance, Sandbjerg Estate, Denmark, and wrapped up by telephone in January 2003.) I. Cornell: From Physics to Economics FXD: Let’s go back to your graduate student days. I recall that you were a student at Cornell. Could you tell us a bit about that? RFE: It depends on how far back you want to go. When I went to Cornell I went as a physicist. -
Raise the Minimum Wage He Minimum Wage Has Been an Important Part of Our Tnation’S Economy for 68 Years
Hundreds of Economists Say: Raise the Minimum Wage he minimum wage has been an important part of our Tnation’s economy for 68 years. It is based on the principle Hard work of valuing work by establishing an hourly wage floor beneath which employers cannot pay their workers. In so doing, the minimum wage helps to equalize the imbalance in bargaining deserves power that low-wage workers face in the labor market. The minimum wage is also an important tool in fighting poverty. fair pay The value of the 1997 increase in the federal minimum wage has been fully eroded. The real value of today’s federal minimum wage is less than it has been since 1951. Moreover, the ratio of the minimum wage to the average hourly wage of non-supervisory workers is 31%, its lowest level since World War II. This decline is causing hardship for low-wage workers and their families. We believe that a modest increase in the minimum wage would improve the well-being of low-wage workers and would not have the adverse effects that critics have claimed. In particular, we share the view the Council of Economic Advisors expressed in the 1999 Economic Report of the President that "the weight of the evidence suggests that modest increases in the minimum wage have had very little or no effect on employment." While controversy about the precise employment effects of the minimum wage continues, research has shown that most of the beneficiaries are adults, most are female, and the vast majority are members of low-income working families. -
Economics, History, and Causation
Randall Morck and Bernard Yeung Economics, History, and Causation Economics and history both strive to understand causation: economics by using instrumental variables econometrics, and history by weighing the plausibility of alternative narratives. Instrumental variables can lose value with repeated use be- cause of an econometric tragedy of the commons: each suc- cessful use of an instrument creates an additional latent vari- able problem for all other uses of that instrument. Economists should therefore consider historians’ approach to inferring causality from detailed context, the plausibility of alternative narratives, external consistency, and recognition that free will makes human decisions intrinsically exogenous. conomics and history have not always got on. Edward Lazear’s ad- E vice that all social scientists adopt economists’ toolkit evoked a certain skepticism, for mainstream economics repeatedly misses major events, notably stock market crashes, and rhetoric can be mathemati- cal as easily as verbal.1 Written by winners, biased by implicit assump- tions, and innately subjective, history can also be debunked.2 Fortunately, each is learning to appreciate the other. Business historians increas- ingly use tools from mainstream economic theory, and economists dis- play increasing respect for the methods of mainstream historians.3 Each Partial funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada is gratefully acknowledged by Randall Morck. 1 Edward Lazear, “Economic Imperialism,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 116, no. 1 (Feb. 2000): 99–146; Irving Fischer, “Statistics in the Service of Economics,” Journal of the American Statistical Association 28, no. 181 (Mar. 1933): 1–13; Deirdre N. McCloskey, The Rhetoric of Economics (Madison, Wisc., 1985). -
An Economy in Conflict Page 6 Sam Perlo-Freeman
The Economics of Vol. 3, No. 2 (2008) Peace and Security Symposium: Palestine — an economy in Journal conflict Sam Perlo-Freeman: introduction to the symposium © www.epsjournal.org.uk Aamer S. Abu-Qarn on economic aspects of sixty years of the Arab- ISSN 1749-852X Israeli conflict Atif Kubursi and Fadle Naqib on Israeli economicide of the West A publication of Bank and Gaza Strip Economists for Peace Osama Hamed on the de-development of the Palestinian economy and Security (UK) Jennifer C. Olmsted on Post-Oslo Palestinian un/employment by gender, class, and age cohort Numan Kanafani and Samia Al-Botmeh on food aid to Palestine Basel Saleh on economic causes of the fragility of the Palestinian Authority Articles Siddharta Mitra on poverty and terrorism Raul Caruso and Andrea Locatelli on al Qaeda and contest theory Pavel A. Yakovlev on saving lives in armed conflicts Nadège Sheehan on U.N. peacekeeping Editors Jurgen Brauer, Augusta State University, Augusta, GA, U.S.A. J. Paul Dunne, University of the West of England, Bristol, U.K. The Economics of Peace and Security Journal © www.epsjournal.org.uk, ISSN 1749-852X A publication of Economists for Peace and Security (UK) Editors Associate editors Aims and scope Jurgen Brauer Michael Brzoska, Germany Keith Hartley, UK This journal raises and debates all issues related to Augusta State University, Augusta, GA, USA Neil Cooper, UK Christos Kollias, Greece the political economy of personal, communal, J. Paul Dunne Lloyd J. Dumas, USA Stefan Markowski, Australia University of the West of England, Bristol, UK Manuel Ferreira, Portugal Sam Perlo-Freeman, Sweden national, international, and global peace and David Gold, USA Thomas Scheetz, Argentina security.