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Evolution in California Energy Generation and Transmission

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Evolution in California Energy Generation and Transmission H2@Scale: The Role of Storage and DER for California Angelina Galiteva: Member CAISO Board of Governors, Founder Renewables 100 Policy Institute, November 2017 Electric industry in the midst of unprecedented change - Driven by fast-growing mix of interrelated issues Federal Election Existing Impacts Gas Storage 50% goal Challenges NEW Community 100% goal or Retail Choice Grid Modernization Regional Collaboration Consumer-owned Power Fossil Plant Transmission & Retirements Distribution Systems Interface Page 2 The California ISO • Balance supply and demand…every 4 seconds • Operate markets for wholesale electricity and reserves • Manage new resource interconnections • Plan grid expansions Page 3 One of nine Grid Operators in the U.S. • 2/3 of the U.S. is supported by an ISO • ISO is one of 38 balancing authorities in the western interconnection 4 ISO Resource Mix - Good progress toward State's goals C A L I F O R N I A E N E R G Y C O M M I S S I O N State Energy Policy Drives Energy RD&D Investments Zero Net Energy Zero Net Energy Commercial Buildings Goal 63,000 Residential Energy GWh/year Double Energy Savings in Buildings Goal Existing Buildings Goal Efficiency 2015 2016 2020 2025 2030 2050 33% RPS Goal 50% Renewables Goal Renewable 12 GW DG Goal 8 GW Utility-Scale Goal Energy 10% Light- 25% of Light- Over 1.5 million Duty State Duty State ZEVs on Transportation Vehicles be Vehicles be ZEV California ZEV Roadways Goal Energy Reduce GHG Emissions to 1990 Reduce GHG Reduce GHG Level (AB 32) – Represents 30% Emissions by 40% Emissions 80% GHG Reduction from Projected GHG Below 1990 Below 1990 Emissions Levels 2 6 C A L I F O R N I A E N E R G Y C O M M I S S I O N Supporting Evolution of the Electricity Grid Historical Grid “Smart” Grid 7 The “State of the State” of Renewables 73,000 MW of installed capacity – 30,000 load +/- in spring and fall 20,000 MW of utility scale renewables – Solar peak 8,545 MW (Sept ‘16) – doubled in 2 years Another 5,000 MW to meet 33% 12,000-16,000 MW to meet 50% 4,500 MW of consumer rooftop solar – 11,000 new/month; = 50-70 MW / mo. Slide 8 Clean, plentiful renewables…what’s the problem? - Oversupply and Steep Ramps Potential Over Supply Curtailments 10,000 - 13,000 MW occurring now ramps commonplace Slide 9 NOT the Duck: ISO gross load curve is changing Dip is attributable to rooftop solar Page 10 ISO working on a 50% duck curve Much steeper ramps Much deeper belly Slide 11 Solar and wind attract 60% of new investment in power generating capacity Investment, by technology, 2017-2040 Investment, by technology, 2017-2040 ($ trillion - 2016 real) Wind $3.3 Fossil fuels 14% Solar $2.8 $10.2 trillion Nuclear $1.4 Hydro $1.1 Zero- carbon Gas $0.8 86% Coal $0.7 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, NEO 2017 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Storage uniquely qualified to help mitigate operational issues Discharge to mitigate impact of steep ramps Charge during times of surplus energy Slide 13 Existing Storage in California Electro Thermal Flywheel Chemical 1% 0% 3% Pumped Hydro: 4087 MW Electro-chemical: 146 MW Thermal: 28 MW Pumped Flywheel: 2 MW Hydro 96% 14 No Single Solution to Oversupply and Ramping - Need to Decarbonize, Decentralize, Regionalize A comprehensive solutions set is needed Energy storage — bulk, distribution-sited facilities, consumer owned More customer demand response Retrofit existing power plants — lower minimum operating level; gain flexibility Enable economic dispatch of renewables – allow them to “bid-out” of the market Decarbonize transportation fuels Deepen regional coordination — big impact; make use of installed assets EIM Consumer participation — align time-of-use rates w/ system conditions Renewable Energy Integration Issues • Variable resources / not highly predictable • Generation Profile vs CA Load Profile • Not Dispatchable • Seasonal Issues (Over/Under generation) • No Contribution to System Inertia, Frequency Control, Other Ancillary Services 16 ISO Programs Enable Participation Energy Storage & Distributed Energy Resources (ESDER) – Enable transmission-connected storage and distribution- connected resources to participate in ISO market (2016) Distributed Energy Resource Provider (DERP) – Pathway for distributed resources to bundle & participate Bulk Storage Behind the Distribution Meter Connected Slide 17 C A L I F O R N I A E N E R G Y C O M M I S S I O N Energy Commission Research Supports Options and Applications Energy Commission research: • 3 CAES projects • 6 flow batteries • 2 zinc-air batteries • 8 lithium-Ion batteries • 4 electric vehicle solutions • 2 sodium sulfur batteries • 2 flywheels • sodium nickel battery 18 C A L I F O R N I A E N E R G Y C O M M I S S I O N Steady Growth for California Renewables 19 20 Success across California Source: UCLA Luskin Center, Source: Clean Power Exchange 2017 High Levels of Renewable Penetration 25 December 2016 9 July 2015 13 February 2017 Scotland Denmark SPP 153% wind 140% wind 52% wind 9 April 2017 May 2016 UK 56% Germany wind & solar 67% wind & solar 26 December 2014 23 March 2017 South Australia CAISO 61% wind & solar 46% wind & solar November 2015 Spain November 2017 70% wind ERCOT 45% wind Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, various Evolving structure of power supply - California Huge ramp rates up and down First week of May First week of May First week of May 2012 (actual) 2017 (actual) 2030 (modelled) Lots of DR, storage and export - or curtailment No more “baseload” Source: CAISO OASIS; CEC proposed IRP; LM Power; CESA; Bloomberg New Energy Finance Digitization technologies Existing technologies driving digitization Emerging technologies driving digitization Behind the meter Machine Batteries generation learning and AI DERMS Cloud storage Big data Internet of Things Blockchain Home energy management Smart data Edge processing Smart grid Electric Cyber Demand vehicles security response Virtual power plants Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance A new “Low Carbon Circle” = Opportunity for Storage Page 25 A global phenomenon: 77 Nations visited the CAISO in 2016 Norway Germany Finland Denmark Poland Netherlands Czech Republic Russia Slovakia Canada Scotland England Hungary Ukraine Belgium Bulgaria Armenia France USA Turkey Cyprus Spain Italy China Japan Israel Lebanon Pakistan Croatia South Korea Jamaica Morocco Greece Jordan India Taiwan Mexico Haiti Senegal Serbia Saudi Arabia Mali Egypt Iran Vietnam Bangladesh Colombia Eritrea Djibouti Philippines Cabo Verde Ethiopia Thailand Sierra Leone Costa Rica Nigeria Kenya Malaysia Côte d'Ivoire Congo Singapore Togo Uganda Brazil Peru Ghana Rwanda Angola Tanzania Bolivia Zambia Madagascar Australia Botswana Malawi Chile South Africa Mozambique Page 26 Thank you Questions? Angelina Galiteva +1/310/ 735 3981 [email protected] or [email protected].
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