H2@Scale: The Role of Storage and DER for California
Angelina Galiteva: Member CAISO Board of Governors, Founder Renewables 100 Policy Institute, November 2017 Electric industry in the midst of unprecedented change - Driven by fast-growing mix of interrelated issues
Federal Election Existing Impacts Gas Storage 50% goal Challenges
NEW Community 100% goal or Retail Choice Grid Modernization Regional Collaboration Consumer-owned Power Fossil Plant Transmission & Retirements Distribution Systems Interface
Page 2 The California ISO
• Balance supply and demand…every 4 seconds • Operate markets for wholesale electricity and reserves • Manage new resource interconnections • Plan grid expansions
Page 3 One of nine Grid Operators in the U.S.
• 2/3 of the U.S. is supported by an ISO
• ISO is one of 38 balancing authorities in the western interconnection
4 ISO Resource Mix - Good progress toward State's goals C A L I F O R N I A E N E R G Y C O M M I S S I O N State Energy Policy Drives Energy RD&D Investments
Zero Net Energy Zero Net Energy Commercial Buildings Goal 63,000 Residential Energy GWh/year Double Energy Savings in Buildings Goal Existing Buildings Goal Efficiency
2015 2016 2020 2025 2030 2050
33% RPS Goal 50% Renewables Goal Renewable 12 GW DG Goal 8 GW Utility-Scale Goal Energy
10% Light- 25% of Light- Over 1.5 million Duty State Duty State ZEVs on Transportation Vehicles be Vehicles be ZEV California ZEV Roadways Goal Energy
Reduce GHG Emissions to 1990 Reduce GHG Reduce GHG Level (AB 32) – Represents 30% Emissions by 40% Emissions 80% GHG Reduction from Projected GHG Below 1990 Below 1990 Emissions Levels 2 6 C A L I F O R N I A E N E R G Y C O M M I S S I O N
Supporting Evolution of the Electricity Grid
Historical Grid “Smart” Grid 7 The “State of the State” of Renewables
73,000 MW of installed capacity – 30,000 load +/- in spring and fall
20,000 MW of utility scale renewables – Solar peak 8,545 MW (Sept ‘16) – doubled in 2 years
Another 5,000 MW to meet 33%
12,000-16,000 MW to meet 50%
4,500 MW of consumer rooftop solar – 11,000 new/month; = 50-70 MW / mo.
Slide 8 Clean, plentiful renewables…what’s the problem? - Oversupply and Steep Ramps
Potential Over Supply
Curtailments 10,000 - 13,000 MW occurring now ramps commonplace
Slide 9 NOT the Duck: ISO gross load curve is changing
Dip is attributable to rooftop solar
Page 10 ISO working on a 50% duck curve
Much steeper ramps
Much deeper belly
Slide 11 Solar and wind attract 60% of new investment in power generating capacity
Investment, by technology, 2017-2040 Investment, by technology, 2017-2040 ($ trillion - 2016 real)
Wind $3.3 Fossil fuels 14% Solar $2.8
$10.2 trillion Nuclear $1.4
Hydro $1.1
Zero- carbon Gas $0.8 86%
Coal $0.7
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, NEO 2017
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Storage uniquely qualified to help mitigate operational issues
Discharge to mitigate impact of steep ramps
Charge during times of surplus energy
Slide 13 Existing Storage in California
Electro Thermal Flywheel Chemical 1% 0% 3%
Pumped Hydro: 4087 MW Electro-chemical: 146 MW Thermal: 28 MW Pumped Flywheel: 2 MW Hydro 96%
14 No Single Solution to Oversupply and Ramping - Need to Decarbonize, Decentralize, Regionalize
A comprehensive solutions set is needed
Energy storage — bulk, distribution-sited facilities, consumer owned
More customer demand response
Retrofit existing power plants — lower minimum operating level; gain flexibility
Enable economic dispatch of renewables – allow them to “bid-out” of the market
Decarbonize transportation fuels
Deepen regional coordination — big impact; make use of installed assets EIM
Consumer participation — align time-of-use rates w/ system conditions Renewable Energy Integration Issues
• Variable resources / not highly predictable
• Generation Profile vs CA Load Profile
• Not Dispatchable
• Seasonal Issues (Over/Under generation)
• No Contribution to System Inertia, Frequency Control, Other Ancillary Services 16 ISO Programs Enable Participation
Energy Storage & Distributed Energy Resources (ESDER) – Enable transmission-connected storage and distribution- connected resources to participate in ISO market (2016)
Distributed Energy Resource Provider (DERP) – Pathway for distributed resources to bundle & participate
Bulk Storage Behind the Distribution Meter Connected
Slide 17 C A L I F O R N I A E N E R G Y C O M M I S S I O N Energy Commission Research Supports Options and Applications
Energy Commission research: • 3 CAES projects • 6 flow batteries • 2 zinc-air batteries • 8 lithium-Ion batteries • 4 electric vehicle solutions • 2 sodium sulfur batteries • 2 flywheels • sodium nickel battery
18 C A L I F O R N I A E N E R G Y C O M M I S S I O N
Steady Growth for California Renewables
19 20 Success across California
Source: UCLA Luskin Center, Source: Clean Power Exchange 2017 High Levels of Renewable Penetration
25 December 2016 9 July 2015 13 February 2017 Scotland Denmark SPP 153% wind 140% wind 52% wind
9 April 2017 May 2016 UK 56% Germany wind & solar 67% wind & solar 26 December 2014 23 March 2017 South Australia CAISO 61% wind & solar 46% wind & solar November 2015 Spain November 2017 70% wind ERCOT 45% wind
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, various Evolving structure of power supply - California
Huge ramp rates up and down
First week of May First week of May First week of May 2012 (actual) 2017 (actual) 2030 (modelled)
Lots of DR, storage and export - or curtailment No more “baseload”
Source: CAISO OASIS; CEC proposed IRP; LM Power; CESA; Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Digitization technologies
Existing technologies driving digitization Emerging technologies driving digitization
Behind the meter Machine Batteries generation learning and AI DERMS
Cloud storage
Big data Internet of Things Blockchain
Home energy management Smart data
Edge processing Smart grid
Electric Cyber Demand vehicles security response Virtual power plants
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance A new “Low Carbon Circle”
= Opportunity for Storage
Page 25 A global phenomenon: 77 Nations visited the CAISO in 2016
Norway Germany Finland Denmark Poland Netherlands Czech Republic Russia Slovakia Canada Scotland England Hungary Ukraine Belgium Bulgaria Armenia France USA Turkey Cyprus Spain Italy China Japan Israel Lebanon Pakistan Croatia South Korea Jamaica Morocco Greece Jordan India Taiwan Mexico Haiti Senegal Serbia Saudi Arabia Mali Egypt Iran Vietnam Bangladesh Colombia Eritrea Djibouti Philippines Cabo Verde Ethiopia Thailand Sierra Leone Costa Rica Nigeria Kenya Malaysia Côte d'Ivoire Congo Singapore Togo Uganda Brazil Peru Ghana Rwanda Angola Tanzania Bolivia Zambia Madagascar Australia Botswana Malawi Chile South Africa Mozambique
Page 26 Thank you
Questions? Angelina Galiteva
+1/310/ 735 3981