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World Bank Document Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Public Disclosure Authorized Report No. 48331-TH INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM DOCUMENT Public Disclosure Authorized FOR A PROPOSED PUBLIC SECTOR REFORM DEVELOPMENT POLICY LOAN (PSRDPL) IN THE AMOUNT OF US$1BILLION TO THE Public Disclosure Authorized KINGDOM OF THAILAND OCTOBER 21, 2010 Public Disclosure Authorized Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Unit East Asia and Pacific Region This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. GOVERNMENT FISCAL YEAR October 1 – September 30 CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (Exchange Rate Effective as at October 2010) Currency Unit Thai Baht (THB) US$1.00 29.89 ABBREVIATIONS ADB Asian Development Bank NESDB National Economic and Social Development Board BOB Bureau of the Budget OAG Office of the Auditor General’s BOP Balance of Payments OCSC Office of the Civil Service Commission BOT Bank of Thailand OPDC Office of the Public Sector Development Commission CDP Country Development Partnership PAD People’s Alliance for Democracy CDP-G Country Development Partnership with PAMP Public Administration Management Plan Thailand on Governance and Public Sector Reform CGD Comptroller General’s Department PART Performance Assessment Rating Tool COA Chart of Accounts PDMO Public Debt Management Office DPL Development Policy Loan PEFA Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability DSA Debt Sustainability Analysis PFM Public Financial Management FDI Foreign Direct Investment PFMR Public Financial Management Report FPO Fiscal Policy Office PICS Productivity and Investment Climate Survey GFMIS Government Fiscal Management PPP People’s Power Party Information System GoT Government of Thailand PSRDPL Public Sector Reform Development Policy Loan ISN Interim Strategy Note RBM Results Based Management ICA Investment Climate Assessment JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency RD Revenue Department KPI Key Performance Indicators ROSC Report on Observance of Standards and Codes LIBOR London Inter-Bank Offered Rate RTG Royal Thai Government LTO Large Taxpayer Office SDDS Special Data Dissemination Standards MOF Ministry of Finance SME Small and Medium Enterprises MoNRE Ministry of Natural Resources and the TKK “Thai Kem Kaeng” (Strong Thailand) Environment MTEF Medium Term Expenditure Framework TRA Treasury Reserve Account NACC National Anti-Corruption Commission TRT Thai Rak Thai Party NEER Nominal Effective Exchange Rate UDD United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship Vice President: James Adams Country Director: Annette Dixon Sector Director and Chief Economist: Vikram Nehru Lead Economist and Task Team Leader: Mathew Verghis The Thailand Public Sector Reform Development Policy Loan was prepared by a team consisting of Shabih Ali Mohib, Kirida Bhaopichitr, Frederico Gil Sander, Vatcharin Sirimaneetham, Nattaporn Triratanasirikul, Ruangrong Thongampai, Ton-Thang Long, Angkanee Luangpenthong, Ratchada Anantavrasilpa, Lynn Gross (EASPR), Zhi Liu, Chanin Manopiniwes (EASTE), Clive Harris (EASOP), Jitendra Shah, James Monday (EASRE), Blanca Moreno-Dodson (PRMVP), Ahsan Ali, Chinnakorn Chantra, Ronald Points (EAPCO), Vikram Raghavan, Roche Levesque (LEGES), Malcolm Holmes, Michael Engelschalk, John Wiggins, David Shand (Consultants), and led by Mathew Verghis (EASPR). The peer reviewers were Stephan Koeberle (LSCOS), Dana Weist (PRMED) and Ijaz Nabi (SARVP). Useful comments were received from Ed Mountfield (OPCCE) and Wolfgang Fengler (EASPR). The team worked under the guidance of Vikram Nehru (Sector Director, EASPR) and Annette Dixon (Country Director), and earlier from Ian Porter (former Country Director). KINGDOM OF THAILAND PROPOSED PUBLIC SECTOR REFORM DEVELOPMENT POLICY LOAN (PSRDPL) TABLE OF CONTENTS LOAN AND PROGRAM SUMMARY I. INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................................... 1 II. COUNTRY CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES .......................................... 4 A. Recent Economic Developments and Outlook ....................................................................... 4 B. Fiscal Response to the Financial Crisis and Debt Sustainability ......................................... 12 C. Political Context ................................................................................................................... 19 III. THE GOVERNMENT’S PROGRAM AND PRIORITIES ..................................................... 21 A. Public Financial Management and Service Delivery ........................................................... 22 B. Improving National Competitiveness .................................................................................. 22 C. Increasing social protection and health policy reforms ........................................................ 24 IV. BANK’S SUPPORT TO THE GOVERNMENT’S PROGRAM ............................................. 24 A. Thailand’s Interim Strategy Note ......................................................................................... 24 B. Analytical Underpinnings .................................................................................................... 25 C. Collaboration with the IMF and Other Donors .................................................................... 27 V. THE GOVERNMENT’S REFORM PROGRAM .................................................................... 27 A. The Fiscal Stimulus Package ............................................................................................... 28 B. Budget Formulation ............................................................................................................. 32 C. Reforming Budget Execution, Accounting and Reporting .................................................. 34 D. External Audit ...................................................................................................................... 36 E. Internal Controls and Internal Audit .................................................................................... 37 F. Public Procurement .............................................................................................................. 38 G. Debt Management ................................................................................................................ 39 H. Anti-Corruption .................................................................................................................... 40 I. Revenue Management .......................................................................................................... 41 J. Results-Based Management ................................................................................................. 42 K. Civil Service Management ................................................................................................... 43 L. Areas of Focus for Future Reforms ...................................................................................... 44 VI. THE PROPOSED OPERATION ............................................................................................... 45 VII. OPERATIONAL AND IMPLEMENTATION ISSUES .......................................................... 49 A. Poverty and Social Aspects .................................................................................................. 49 B. Implementation, Monitoring and Evaluation ....................................................................... 52 C. Fiduciary Aspects, Disbursement and Auditing ................................................................... 53 D. Risks and Risk Mitigation .................................................................................................... 54 E. Environmental and Social Aspects ....................................................................................... 56 FIGURES Figure 1. The Thai economy is driven by sectors linked the production of tradable goods and services. .... 6 Figure 2. Core Inflation Remains Below its (already low) Historical Average. ........................................... 6 Figure 3. Bank of Thailand Balance Sheet ................................................................................................... 9 Figure 4. Financial Sector Strength Indicators .............................................................................................. 9 Figure 5. Thailand: Public Debt Sustainability Analysis ............................................................................ 17 Figure 6. Thailand 5-year Credit Default Swaps ........................................................................................ 19 Figure 7. Thailand Yield Curve .................................................................................................................. 19 Figure 8. Thailand Poverty Headcount Ratio and Economic Growth: 1988-2007 ..................................... 49 Figure 9. Proportion of Poor Households Classified by Economic Activities, 2007 .................................. 49 Figure 10. The decline in agricultural prices was the main channel through which the crisis affected vulnerable households. ................................................................................................................................ 51 Figure 11. Labor initially shifted to agriculture during the crisis, but as the recovery took hold manufacturing employment gained. ...........................................................................................................
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