Facts and Figures Warehouse/Logistics Rhine-Main Q3 2018 “Progress depends on the exchange of k nowledge“ Quote from Albert Einstein If you require any further information, please do not hesitate to contact us. We can put you in touch with our specialists who are always happy to provide you with expert support. We look forward to hearing from you! Dr. Konrad Kanzler Head of Research +49 (0) 69 - 970 505-614 [email protected] Michael Weyrauch Head of Industrial Letting and Transaction +49 (0) 69 - 970 505-902 [email protected] Tim Weißleder Director Industrial Letting +49 (0) 69 - 970 505-157 [email protected] Lenny Lemler Director Investment +49 (0) 69 - 970 505-174 [email protected] Market Environment Population development Frankfurt/Rhine-Main Frankfurt Wiesbaden Mainz Darmstadt Offenbach In the first nine months of the year, the so- Inhabitants (06/2018): Frankfurt 744,115 / Wiesbaden 289,993 / Mainz 216,055 / cioeconomic indicators in the Rhine-Main Darmstadt 161,177 / Offenbach 136,824 800,000 region continued to develop in a positive 700,000 manner. The number of inhabitants in- 600,000 creased in all five cities (Frankfurt am Main, 500,000 Darmstadt, Offenbach, Mainz and Wies- 400,000 300,000 baden) compared to the previous year. As 200,000 of June 2018, Offenbach had recorded the Frankfurt a.M., Wiesbaden, Mainz,Darmstadt, Offenbach 100,000 highest rate of growth at 1.7 % (136,824 Cities 0 : inhabitants). Frankfurt and Darmstadt 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Jun 18 Source each achieved an increase of 1.1 % com- pared to June 2017, reaching 744,155 Unemployment rate Frankfurt/Rhine-Main and 161,177 inhabitants respectively. The neighbouring cities of Mainz (0.9 %) and Frankfurt Wiesbaden Mainz Darmstadt Offenbach Germany Unemployment rate (08/2018): Frankfurt 5,3 % / Wiesbaden 7,0 % / Mainz 5,6 % / Wiesbaden (0.1 %) also registered popu- Darmstadt 5,1 % / Offenbach 9,0 % / Germany 5,2 % lation growth. 12.0 11.0 The employment market in the Rhine-Main 10.0 region remains robust. The number of em- 9.0 ployees subject to social insurance contri- 8.0 Federal EmploymentAgency , 7.0 butions in the five cities in this study stood 6.0 at a total of 979,039, according to the lat- 5.0 est update from March 2018 (+2.5 % Federal Statistical Office 4.0 : 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Aug 18 compared to March 2017). About 100,600 Source of the total are employed in the “transport and storage” industry. Owing to the posi- Purchasing power per capita Frankfurt/Rhine-Main tive development of the logistics sector, Frankfurt Wiesbaden Mainz Darmstadt Offenbach Germany the number of employees in this industry Purchasing power per capita (2018): Frankfurt €26,212 / Wiesbaden €25,553 / Mainz €24,726 / Darmstadt €24,895 / Offenbach €21,355 / Germany €22,949 increased disproportionately by 6.3 % 30,000 compared to the same period of last year. 25,000 The lowest rate of unemployment at the 20,000 end of 2018 was registered in Darmstadt, where the rate is approx. 0.1 percentage 15,000 points below the national average of 10,000 5.2 %. Offenbach is still the city with the 5,000 highest rate of unemployment (9.0 % or - : GfK GeoMarkting GmbH 0 0.3 percentage points compared to Au- 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source gust 2017). The latest business survey carried out by Traffic situation Frankfurt/Rhein-Main the Chamber of Industry and Commerce Air traffic Passenger numbers at Frankfurt Airport in the first half of 2018 increased by 9.1 % to about 32.7 million airline in Frankfurt am Main also continues to customers. Cargo volumes were similar to the previous point to a positive economic performance year at 1.1 million tonnes by end-June 2018. in the region. The business climate index Rail traffic Frankfurt central station is the most important ICE hub in for the transport industry did lose some Germany. More than 630 long-distance and local trains per day, 1,100 S-Bahn trains (regional trains) and points compared to the previous report, 350,000 visitors and travellers. but remains at a high level with 123 points. Highway traffic Central hub for Germany’s long-distance road network with five motorway links. Frankfurter Kreuz is the busiest motorway junction in Germany with about 335,000 vehicles per day. Market Data Take-up (lettings and owner occupation – in 1,000 sqm) Take-up (in thousand sqm) Average take-up 10 years (552,000 sqm) The market for warehouse and logistics 900 space in the Rhine-Main region picked up 753 sqm 769 sqm 800 momentum in the third quarter of 2018 fol- 700 629 sqm 582 sqm 635 sqm lowing an unremarkable first half of the 511 sqm 569 sqm 600 547 sqm year. Space take-up of 225,000 sqm by 500 tenants and owner-occupiers in the past 400 three months represents an increase of 300 200 34.7 % compared to Q1 and 45.2 % com- 100 pared to Q2 of the current year. The vol- apollo 0 : NAI ume also exceeded the previous year’s re- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Q1-Q3 2018 Source sult by about 10,000 sqm. Total take-up in the year to date amounts to about 547,000 sqm and is 6.3 % below the level Take-up according to unit size Q1-Q3 2018 of the previous year, which ended with a 350,000 new record result. 13 Spaces 293,000 sqm 300,000 The primary reason for the increase in 250,000 take-up is the significant rise in large deals, Total: 547,000 sqm 200,000 which had declined noticeably in the first six months of the year. Take-up reached 150,000 11 Spaces 16 Spaces 85,000 sqm about 187,000 sqm in the “5,000-sqm- 100,000 50 Spaces 29 Spaces 67,000 sqm 60,000 sqm plus” segments during the third quarter, 42,000 sqm 50,000 apollo and was not far short of the 191,000 sqm 0 : NAI < 1,500 1,501 - 3,000 3,001 - 5,000 5,001 - 10,000 > 10,000 recorded in the entire first half of the year. Source The figure includes the “10,000-sqm-plus” cluster, which accounted for about Take-up according to industry Q1-Q3 2018 142,000 sqm in the recent quarter. This accounts for 63.0 % of overall take-up. 8.2 % In the first three quarters as a whole, deals 10.2 % in the large-space segment (> 5,000 sqm) Transport, Warehouse & Logistics amounted to 377,000 sqm in total and Trade corresponded to a share of 69.0 %. This Manufacturing includes 13 contracts in the “10,000-sqm- 22.4 % 59.2 % Others & n/a plus” segment with about 293,000 sqm (53.6 %). apollo NAI Four of the five largest deals of the year Source: took place in the past three months. The two biggest lease contracts were signed Definition market area by the logistics companies ID Logistics and Seifert Logistics for spaces in project NAI apollo defines the Frankfurt/Rhine-Main market area for logistics developments of Dietz AG. The deals con- and warehouses as the relevant available logistics and warehouse cerned over 40,000 sqm in Hammersbach space between the cities of Butzbach in the north and Worms in the and more than 35,000 sqm in Bürstadt. south, as well as between Bingen in the west and Aschaffenburg in Next in line was the lease signed by Rewe the east. for more than 32,500 sqm in M-Port³ on The City of Frankfurt am Main forms the central point of the sub-mar- the Mönchhof site in Kelsterbach during ket described. the second quarter. Market Data Development of rents Frankfurt am Main The significance of off-plan lease contracts Prime rent logistics space ≥ 5,000 sqm (in €/sqm) Prime rent warehouse/logistics space - including industrial parks (in €/sqm) has increased again, partly because of the 8.0 large deals mentioned above. While this 7.0 segment accounted for a market share of 6.0 only 25.2 % by the end of June, it has 5.0 4.0 since increased to 37.3 % or 3.0 204,000 sqm. This is almost in line with 2.0 the previous year (Q1-Q3 2017: 39.8 %). 1.0 apollo In contrast, leases in existing buildings NAI 0.0 : eased off in the recent quarter (50.3 % 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Q3 2018 Source with 275,000 sqm). At the same time, there was virtually no change in the case Selection of large current project developments 2018 of owner-occupier projects (10.8 % with 59,000 sqm) and purchases (1.6 % with Groß-Gerau - 106,000 sqm 9,000 sqm). Construction of the “Nextpark GG RheinMain” on the former Südzucker site in Groß-Gerau by FOUR PARX GmbH. The logistics park is scheduled for completion in Q4 2018. Approx. 40,000 sqm of hall space is still available for rent. Our analysis of the different user groups also reveals few changes. Companies in Hammersbach - 40,000 sqm the transport, warehouse and logistics Speculative development by Dietz AG on an intermunicipal industrial area called Limes (Hammersbach, Limeshain and Büdingen) with the construction of 40,000 sqm of logistics space sector gained some ground and remained in the first building phase that was let to ID Logistics in Q3 2018. Approx. 150,000 sqm could be realised in further building phases.