GARDNER ON THE STAR OF BETHLEHEM • CURSES • GOULD'S ROCKS OF AGES Skeptical Inquire THE MAGAZINE FOR SCIENCE AND REASON Volume 23, No. 6 • November/December 1999 ^^^^HB ^J P^^^^V^^V i^r^^r^^ • ^1 IHBF .^HH BK^*HI MB&^fc*^.^jjr^ ..r — ^ i • vs 1 \ ** * • 1 r•A^'w ff *• "^1 •& 1 I ^. .»& w j i \ M MTh 8 & A •e •EsP - • ff Si ~ Hff? ^SSK&V--'' • _-• ^•^^My^w-^w B I Universe. and Carl Sagan Published by the Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal THE COMMITTEE FOR THE SCIENTIFIC INVESTIGATION OF CLAIMS OF THE PARANORMAL AT THE CENTER FOR INQUIRY-INTERNATIONAL |ADJACENT TO THE STATE UNIVERSITY OF NEW YORK AT BUFFALO) • AN INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATION Paul Kurtz, Chairman; professor emeritus of philosophy, State University of New York at Buffalo Barry Karr, Executive Director Joe Nicked, Senior Research Fellow Lee Nisbet Special Projects Director Matthew Nisbet, Public Relations Director FELLOWS James E. Alcock," psychologist, York Univ., I Thomas Gilovich, psychologist, Cornell Univ. Dorothy Nelkin, sociologist. New York Univ. Toronto Henry Gordon, magician, columnist, Joe Nickell,* senior research fellow, CSICOP Steve Allen, comedian, author, composer, Toronto Lee Nisbet* philosopher, Medaille College pianist Stephen Jay Gould, Museum of Bill Nye, science educator and television Jerry Andrus, magician and inventor, Comparative Zoology, Harvard Univ. host, Nye Labs Albany, Oregon Susan Haack, Cooper Senior Scholar in Arts James E. Oberg, science writer Robert A. Baker, psychologist, Univ. of and Sciences, prof, of philosophy, Loren Pankratz, psychologist, Oregon Kentucky University of Miami Health Sciences Univ. Stephen Barrett M.D., psychiatrist, author, C. E. M. Hansel, psychologist, Univ. of Wales John Paulos, mathematician, Temple Univ. consumer advocate, Allentown, Pa. Al Hibbs, scientist. Jet Propulsion Laboratory Barry Beyerstein,* biopsychologist, Simon Douglas Hofstadter, professor of human W. V. Quine, philosopher, Harvard Univ. Milton Rosenberg, psychologist, Univ. of Fraser Univ., Vancouver, B.C., Canada understanding and cognitive science, Indiana Univ. Chicago Irving Biederman, psychologist, Univ. of Gerald Holton, Mallinckrodt Professor of Southern California Wallace Sampson, M.D., clinical professor Physics and professor of history of science. Susan Blackmore, psychologist, Univ. of the of medicine, Stanford Univ. Harvard Univ. Evry Schatzman, president, French Physics West of England, Bristol Ray Hyman,* psychologist, Univ. of Oregon Association Henri Broch, physicist, Univ. of Nice, France Leon Jaroff, sciences editor emeritus, Time Jan Harold Brunvand, folklorist, professor Sergei Kapitza, editor, Russian edition, Eugenie Scott* physical anthropologist, executive director. National Center for emeritus of English, Univ. of Utah Scientific American Vern Bullough, professor of history, Philip J. Klass,* aerospace writer, engineer Science Education California State Univ. at Northridge Edwin C. Krupp, astronomer, director, Thomas A. Sebeok. anthropologist, Mario Bunge, philosopher, McGill University Griffith Observatory linguist, Indiana Univ. John R. Cole, anthropologist, editor. Paul Kurtz,* chairman. CSICOP Robert Sheaffer, science writer National Center for Science Education Lawrence Kusche, science writer Elie A. Shneour, biochemist, author, F. H. C. Crick, biophysicist, Salk Inst, for Leon Lederman, emeritus director, director, Biosystems Research Institute, Biological Studies, La Jolla, Calif; Nobel Fermilab; Nobel laureate in physics La Jolla. Calif. Prize laureate Lin Zixin, former editor, Science and Dick Smith, film producer, publisher, Terrey Richard Dawkins, zoologist, Oxford Univ. Technology Daily (China) Hills, N.S.W., Australia L. Sprague de Camp, author, engineer Elizabeth Loftus, professor of psychology, Robert Steiner, magician, author, Cornells de Jager, professor of astro­ Univ. of Washington El Cerrito, Calif. physics, Univ. of Utrecht, the Netherlands Paul MacCready, scientist/engineer, Jill Cornell Tarter, astronomer, SETI Bernard Dixon, science writer, London, U.K. AeroVironment, Inc., Monrovia, Calif. Institute, Mountain View, Calif. Paul Edwards, philosopher, editor, John Maddox, editor emeritus of Nature Encyclopedia of Philosophy David Marks, psychologist, Middlesex Carol Tavris, psychologist and author, Los Kenneth Feder, professor of anthropology, Polytech, England Angeles, Calif. Central Connecticut State Univ. Walter C. McCrone, microscopist, McCrone Stephen Toulmin, professor of philosophy, Antony Flew, philosopher. Reading Univ., Research Institute Univ. of Southern California U.K. Mario Mendez-Acosta, journalist and Marilyn vos Savant Parade magazine con­ Andrew Fraknoi, astronomer, Foothill science writer, Mexico City, Mexico tributing editor and CBS News correspon­ College. Los Altos Hills, Calif. Marvin Minsky, professor of media arts and dent Kendrick Frazier,* science writer, editor. sciences, M.I.T. Steven Weinberg, professor of physics and SKEPTICAL INQUIRER David Morrison, space scientist. NASA astronomy, Univ. of Texas at Austin; Nobel Yves Galifret, vice-president. Affiliated Ames Research Center Prize laureate Richard A. Muller, professor of physics, Organizations: France Marvin Zelen, statistician. Harvard Univ. Martin Gardner.* author, critic Univ. of Calif., Berkeley Murray Gell-Mann, professor of physics. H. Narasimhaiah, physicist, president. * Member, CSICOP Executive Council Santa Fe Institute; Nobel Prize laureate Bangalore Science Forum, India (Affiliations given for identification only.) Visit the CSICOP Web site at http://www.csicop.org The SKEPTICAL JNQLWER (ISSN 0194-6730) is published bimonthly by the Committee for the Articles, reports, reviews, and letters published in die SKEPTICAL INQUIRER represent the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal. I3'0 Sweet Home Rd , Amherst, N'Y views and work of individual authors Their publication does not necessarily constitute an 14228. Printed (n U.S.A. Periodicals postage paid at Buffalo, NY Subscription prices: one year endorsement by CSICOP or its members unless so stated. (six issues), $35; two years. S58: three years. S81; single issu*. £4.95. 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Old address as well as new arc necessary for change of subscribers address, wiih six Kendrick Frazier, Editor, SKEPTICAL INQUIRER. 944 Deer Drive NE, Albuquerque. •«*k* advance notice- SKEPTICAL INQUIRE* subscribers may not speak on behalf of CSICOP NM 87122. FAX 505-828-2080. For Guide for Authors, see page 81 in the or the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER. July/August 1999 issue, or send a fax request to the Editor. It is also available on rhe Posimasten Send changes of address to SKEPTICAL INQUIRER. Box ~03. Amherst. NY Web at http://www.csicop.org.si/gijjJde-for-aunSon.html. 14226-0703. Skeptical Inquirer November/December 1999 • VOL 23, NO. 6 SPECIAL REPORT 22 Blooming 'Shroud' Claims News of pollen and plant-image findings on the Shroud of Turin are based on earlier, scientifically discredited research. Cover Design by Lisa A. Hutter JOE NICKELL COLUMNS ARTICLES EDITOR'S NOTE 4 NEWS AND COMMENT 24 The Universe and Carl Sagan Space.com's CIA-UFO Cover-up Mixes with News on Web / August 11 Eclipse Feeds Superstition, Fears / False Memory Few people ever extolled the wonders of science with more elo­ News / The Monkey Business in Kansas / 'Intelligent Design's' quence or were as effective in defending reason and campaign­ Chinese 'Deep Throat'? / VP Gore Sidesteps. Backtracks, and ing against pseudoscience as Carl Sagan. A polymath prodigy Stumbles Forward 5 and visionary interdisciplinary scientist with lifelong passions for planetary astronomy, the origins of life, and seeking RESEARCH REVIEW extraterrestrial intelligence. Sagan turned his early enthusiasms New Analyses Raise Doubts About Replicability of ESP Findings about UFOs to rigorous but open-minded ikepticism. An SCOTT O. LILIENFELD 9 excerpt from a new biography Carl Sagan: A Life. KEAY DAVIDSON NOTES OF A FRINGE WATCHER The Star of Bethlehem 32 The Millennium Thought Contagion MARTIN GARDNER 11 Thought contagions are beliefs that program for their own INVESTIGATIVE FILES copying in humans much as computer viruses do in computers. Curses: Foiled Again Their self-spreading effect explains the techno-apocalyptic ideas JOE NICKELL 16 swirling around the Y2K bug, including secular hell-doomsday ideas, logic-resistant strains of myth, and embedded rumors. PSYCHIC VIBRATIONS Educating people about this can reduce the hazards of mass Looking for Mr. Goodape failures in "mental software. " ROBERT SHEAFFER 20 AARON