GARDNER ON THE STAR OF BETHLEHEM • CURSES • GOULD'S ROCKS OF AGES Skeptical Inquire THE MAGAZINE FOR SCIENCE AND REASON Volume 23, No. 6 • November/December 1999

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Published by the Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal THE COMMITTEE FOR THE SCIENTIFIC INVESTIGATION OF CLAIMS OF THE PARANORMAL

AT THE CENTER FOR INQUIRY-INTERNATIONAL |ADJACENT TO THE STATE UNIVERSITY OF NEW YORK AT BUFFALO) • AN INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATION Paul Kurtz, Chairman; professor emeritus of philosophy, State University of New York at Buffalo Barry Karr, Executive Director Joe Nicked, Senior Research Fellow Lee Nisbet Special Projects Director Matthew Nisbet, Public Relations Director FELLOWS

James E. Alcock," psychologist, York Univ., I Thomas Gilovich, psychologist, Cornell Univ. Dorothy Nelkin, sociologist. New York Univ. Toronto Henry Gordon, magician, columnist, Joe Nickell,* senior research fellow, CSICOP Steve Allen, comedian, author, composer, Toronto Lee Nisbet* philosopher, Medaille College pianist Stephen Jay Gould, Museum of Bill Nye, science educator and television Jerry Andrus, magician and inventor, Comparative Zoology, Harvard Univ. host, Nye Labs Albany, Oregon Susan Haack, Cooper Senior Scholar in Arts James E. Oberg, science writer Robert A. Baker, psychologist, Univ. of and Sciences, prof, of philosophy, Loren Pankratz, psychologist, Oregon Kentucky University of Miami Health Sciences Univ. Stephen Barrett M.D., psychiatrist, author, C. E. M. Hansel, psychologist, Univ. of Wales John Paulos, mathematician, Temple Univ. consumer advocate, Allentown, Pa. Al Hibbs, scientist. Jet Propulsion Laboratory Barry Beyerstein,* biopsychologist, Simon Douglas Hofstadter, professor of human W. V. Quine, philosopher, Harvard Univ. Milton Rosenberg, psychologist, Univ. of Fraser Univ., Vancouver, B.C., Canada understanding and cognitive science, Indiana Univ. Chicago Irving Biederman, psychologist, Univ. of Gerald Holton, Mallinckrodt Professor of Southern California Wallace Sampson, M.D., clinical professor Physics and professor of history of science. Susan Blackmore, psychologist, Univ. of the of medicine, Stanford Univ. Harvard Univ. Evry Schatzman, president, French Physics West of England, Bristol Ray Hyman,* psychologist, Univ. of Oregon Association Henri Broch, physicist, Univ. of Nice, France Leon Jaroff, sciences editor emeritus, Time Jan Harold Brunvand, folklorist, professor Sergei Kapitza, editor, Russian edition, Eugenie Scott* physical anthropologist, executive director. National Center for emeritus of English, Univ. of Utah Scientific American Vern Bullough, professor of history, Philip J. Klass,* aerospace writer, engineer Science Education California State Univ. at Northridge Edwin C. Krupp, astronomer, director, Thomas A. Sebeok. anthropologist, Mario Bunge, philosopher, McGill University Griffith Observatory linguist, Indiana Univ. John R. Cole, anthropologist, editor. Paul Kurtz,* chairman. CSICOP Robert Sheaffer, science writer National Center for Science Education Lawrence Kusche, science writer Elie A. Shneour, biochemist, author, F. H. C. Crick, biophysicist, Salk Inst, for Leon Lederman, emeritus director, director, Biosystems Research Institute, Biological Studies, La Jolla, Calif; Nobel Fermilab; Nobel laureate in physics La Jolla. Calif. Prize laureate Lin Zixin, former editor, Science and Dick Smith, film producer, publisher, Terrey Richard Dawkins, zoologist, Oxford Univ. Technology Daily (China) Hills, N.S.W., Australia L. Sprague de Camp, author, engineer Elizabeth Loftus, professor of psychology, Robert Steiner, magician, author, Cornells de Jager, professor of astro­ Univ. of Washington El Cerrito, Calif. physics, Univ. of Utrecht, the Netherlands Paul MacCready, scientist/engineer, Jill Cornell Tarter, astronomer, SETI Bernard Dixon, science writer, London, U.K. AeroVironment, Inc., Monrovia, Calif. Institute, Mountain View, Calif. Paul Edwards, philosopher, editor, John Maddox, editor emeritus of Nature Encyclopedia of Philosophy David Marks, psychologist, Middlesex Carol Tavris, psychologist and author, Los Kenneth Feder, professor of anthropology, Polytech, England Angeles, Calif. Central Connecticut State Univ. Walter C. McCrone, microscopist, McCrone Stephen Toulmin, professor of philosophy, Antony Flew, philosopher. Reading Univ., Research Institute Univ. of Southern California U.K. Mario Mendez-Acosta, journalist and Marilyn vos Savant Parade magazine con­ Andrew Fraknoi, astronomer, Foothill science writer, Mexico City, Mexico tributing editor and CBS News correspon­ College. Los Altos Hills, Calif. Marvin Minsky, professor of media arts and dent Kendrick Frazier,* science writer, editor. sciences, M.I.T. Steven Weinberg, professor of physics and SKEPTICAL INQUIRER David Morrison, space scientist. NASA astronomy, Univ. of Texas at Austin; Nobel Yves Galifret, vice-president. Affiliated Ames Research Center Prize laureate Richard A. Muller, professor of physics, Organizations: France Marvin Zelen, statistician. Harvard Univ. Martin Gardner.* author, critic Univ. of Calif., Berkeley Murray Gell-Mann, professor of physics. H. Narasimhaiah, physicist, president. * Member, CSICOP Executive Council Santa Fe Institute; Nobel Prize laureate Bangalore Science Forum, India (Affiliations given for identification only.)

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The SKEPTICAL JNQLWER (ISSN 0194-6730) is published bimonthly by the Committee for the Articles, reports, reviews, and letters published in die SKEPTICAL INQUIRER represent the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal. I3'0 Sweet Home Rd , Amherst, N'Y views and work of individual authors Their publication does not necessarily constitute an 14228. Printed (n U.S.A. Periodicals postage paid at Buffalo, NY Subscription prices: one year endorsement by CSICOP or its members unless so stated. (six issues), $35; two years. S58: three years. S81; single issu*. £4.95. Canadian and foreign orders: Copyright ©1999 by the Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Payment in U.S. funds drawn on a U.S. bank must accompany orders; please add L"S$10 per year Paranormal. All rights reserved. The SKFJTICAL INQUIRER is available on 16mm microfilm. for shipping. Canadian and foreign customers are encouraged to use Visa or MasterCard. s*»mm microfilm, and 105mm rnn.ro tit he from University Microfilm* International and is Inquiries from the media and the public about die work of the Committee should be made indexed in the Reader * Guide to PericidicaJ Literature. to Paul Kurtz. Chairman. CSICOP. Box 703. Amherst. NY 14226-0703. Tel.: 7;6-636-1425. Subscriptions and changes of address should be addressed to: SKEPTICAL INQUIRER. Box FAX; 716-636-1733. -03. Amherst. NY 14226-0703. Or call toll-free 1-800-634-1610 (outside U.S. call 716-636- Manuscripts, letters, books for review, and editorial inquiries should be addressed to 1425). Old address as well as new arc necessary for change of subscribers address, wiih six Kendrick Frazier, Editor, SKEPTICAL INQUIRER. 944 Deer Drive NE, Albuquerque. •«*k* advance notice- SKEPTICAL INQUIRE* subscribers may not speak on behalf of CSICOP NM 87122. FAX 505-828-2080. For Guide for Authors, see page 81 in the or the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER. July/August 1999 issue, or send a fax request to the Editor. It is also available on rhe Posimasten Send changes of address to SKEPTICAL INQUIRER. Box ~03. Amherst. NY Web at http://www.csicop.org.si/gijjJde-for-aunSon.html. 14226-0703. Skeptical Inquirer November/December 1999 • VOL 23, NO. 6

SPECIAL REPORT 22 Blooming 'Shroud' Claims News of pollen and plant-image findings on the Shroud of Turin are based on earlier, scientifically discredited research. Cover Design by Lisa A. Hutter JOE NICKELL COLUMNS

ARTICLES EDITOR'S NOTE 4 NEWS AND COMMENT 24 The Universe and Carl Sagan Space.com's CIA-UFO Cover-up Mixes with News on Web / August 11 Eclipse Feeds Superstition, Fears / False Memory Few people ever extolled the wonders of science with more elo­ News / The Monkey Business in Kansas / 'Intelligent Design's' quence or were as effective in defending reason and campaign­ Chinese 'Deep Throat'? / VP Gore Sidesteps. Backtracks, and ing against pseudoscience as Carl Sagan. A polymath prodigy Stumbles Forward 5 and visionary interdisciplinary scientist with lifelong passions for planetary astronomy, the origins of life, and seeking RESEARCH REVIEW extraterrestrial intelligence. Sagan turned his early enthusiasms New Analyses Raise Doubts About Replicability of ESP Findings about UFOs to rigorous but open-minded ikepticism. An SCOTT O. LILIENFELD 9 excerpt from a new biography Carl Sagan: A Life. KEAY DAVIDSON NOTES OF A FRINGE WATCHER The Star of Bethlehem 32 The Millennium Thought Contagion MARTIN GARDNER 11 Thought contagions are beliefs that program for their own INVESTIGATIVE FILES copying in humans much as computer viruses do in computers. Curses: Foiled Again Their self-spreading effect explains the techno-apocalyptic ideas JOE NICKELL 16 swirling around the Y2K bug, including secular hell-doomsday ideas, logic-resistant strains of myth, and embedded rumors. PSYCHIC VIBRATIONS Educating people about this can reduce the hazards of mass Looking for Mr. Goodape failures in "mental software. " ROBERT SHEAFFER 20 AARON LYNCH SCIENCE BEST SELLERS 59 37 'Debunking the Debunkers' NEW BOOKS 60 A Response to an Astrologer's ARTICLES OF NOTE 60 Debunking of Skeptics READERS' FORUM ON SCIENCE AND RELIGION 62 An article published in The Mountain Astrologer in the Jail LETTERS TO THE EDITOR 68 of 1998 claimed to rebut criticisms of astrology by debunkers. An examination of the astrologer's arguments shows that astrol­ REVIEWS ogy has almost no resources with which to respond to critics.

I.W. KELLY Rocks of Ages: Science and Religion in the Fullness of Life 42 The Physics Behind Four By Stephen Jay Gould Amazing Demonstrations MARK W. DURM and Here is the physics theory behind four dramatic demonstra­ MASSIMO PIGLIUCCI! . .53 tions—walking on broken glass, dipping one's fingers in molten lead breaking a concrete block over someone lying between Once Upon a Number: The Hidden beds of nails, and picking up an orange-hot piece of silica tile. Mathematical Logic of Stories By John Allan Paulos DAVID G. WILLEY MARK DURM 56

45 Another Lunar Effect Put to Rest Who's Afraid of Human Cloning? Thirty years ago, published reports suggested that plants could By Gregory E. Pence grow better on lunar "soil" than they could on terrestrial soils. TERENCE HINES 57 once A stria of experimental errors, reporting errors, and omissions upon a led to this conclusion. Previously unpublished data easily Fox Television's "Signs from God" number explain the reported effects. Fox Broadcasting Network HAVEN SWEET JOE NICKELL 61 Skeptical Inquirer THI MAGAZINE rot SCIINCt AND MASON

EDffOR The Cosmos of Carl Sagan Kendrick Frazier EDITORIAL BOARD James E. Alcock don't remember exactly when I first became aware of Carl Sagan. It must Barry Beyerstein have been the late 1960s when I read his book Intelligent Life in the Universe, Thomas Casten I Martin Gardner written in a unique collaboration—they hadn't met—with the famous Soviet Ray Hyman astronomer I.S. Shklovskii. The young Sagan had taken a translation of Lawrence Jones Philip J. Klass Shklovskii's book and added his own abundant emendations, identified by tri­ Paul Kurtz angular symbols. The book crackled with vivid ideas. Joe Nickell Lee Nisbet In 1973, his book Cosmic Connection was published to wide acclaim, and Amardeo Sarma Sagan started getting wide renown. While editor of Science News, I went to a Bela Scheiber Eugenie Scott colloquium he gave at the nearby NASA Goddard Space Flight Center in CONSULTING EDITORS Maryland. That's when I first heard him respond to questions about UFOs Robert A. Baker Susan J. Blackmore with insight and wit. There was underway at the time a periodic spate of UFO John R. Cole reports, "UFO flap is, I believe, the technical term," said Sagan wryly. Kenneth L. Feder When Sagan and Immanuel Velikovsky met in debate at an extraordinary C E. M. Hansel E. C. Krupp symposium (which Sagan had championed) at the annual meeting of Scott O. Lilienfeld American Association for the Advancement of Science in San Francisco in David F. Marks James E. Oberg 1974, I sat near the front with other science journalists. Sagan had done his Robert Sheaffer homework well (he spoke from a 56-page typewritten manuscript heavily David E. Thomas annotated with his handwritten changes). It was an epic clash: the elderly, Richard Wiseman MANAGING EDITOR silver-haired Velikovsky, looking like some kind of modern Moses invoking Benjamin Radford pinball-like planetary collisions and flybys to explain Biblical miracles, the ART DIRECTOR young and darkly handsome planetary scientist Sagan calmly and deftly apply­ Lisa A. Flutter PRODUCTION ing reasoned argument, celestial mechanics, and the best physical science to Paul Loynes counter the sensational claims. CARTOONIST In 1976 Sagan became one of the original founding Fellows of the Rob Pudim WEB PAGE DESIGNER Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal Patrick Fitzgerald (CSICOP), publisher of the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, and to the end he remained EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR committed and supportive in our mutual battles on behalf of good science and CENTER FOR INQUIRY against pseudoscience and unreason. Theodore L. Manekin In this issue, we are pleased to present excerpts from Keay Davidson's PUBLISHER'S REPRESENTATIVE Barry Karr sparkling new biography of Sagan, Carl Sagan: A Life, just published in CORPORATE COUNSEL October. Our excerpts focus mostly on Sagan's scientific interests in the origins Brenton N. VerPloeg of life, extraterrestrial intelligence, UFOs, and skepticism (including his clash ASSISTANT BUSINESS MANAGER with Velikovsky). But they also give some of die flavor of the book's portrayal Sandra Lesniak FISCAL OFFICER of Sagan's enigmatic personality, his often bumpy relationships with colleagues, Paul Paulin and his extraordinary, but regrettably foreshortened, life and career as a vision­ CHIEF DEVELOPMENT OFFICER ary interdisciplinary scientist and powerfully effective public expositor about James Kimberly ASSOCIATE DIRECTOR OF DEVELOPMENT science and its values. Anthony C. Battaglia CHIEF DATA OFFICER Michael Gone MANAGEMENT INFORMATION SPECIALIST This issue also presents a Readers' Forum on Science and Religion, a sampling Jeff Howell of readers' responses to our recent special issue Science and Religion: Conflict STAFF or Conciliation? The response to that issue has been extraordinary. It has also Jodi Chapman Matthew Nisbet been overwhelmingly positive. We received so many letters that there is no way Etienne Rios we could publish anything but a representative selection. We had hoped to Ranjit Sandhu publish more, but space prevents it. But there's good news: Some of the Sharon Sikora Kathy Vaughn responses that didn't make it into this issue will be placed on our Web site at Vance Vigrass www.csicop.org. We thank you for all your very thoughtful comments. We INQUIRY MEDIA PRODUCTIONS clearly tapped into a strong current of interest and concern. Thomas Flynn DIRECTOR OF LIBRARIES Timothy S. Binga

The SKEPTICAL INQUIRER is the official journal of the Committee for the Scientific ~YJJI Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal, 7J~ an international organization.

4 November/December 1999 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER NEWS AND COMMENT

Space.com's CIA-UFO Cover-up Mixes with News on Web

PHILIP J. KLASS of additional CIA information on opposed. UFOs, Director of Central Intelligence To resolve this issue, it was agreed It is hardly surprising that the many R. James Woolsey ordered another that a panel of five top scientists, headed Internet Web sites dedicated to UFOs review of all Agency files on UFOs.... by Dr. H.P. Robertson of the California offer a very biased view that appeals to What emerges from this examination is Institute of Technology, would be con­ "UFO believers." What is surprising is that, while the Agency concern over UFOs vened in early 1953 to examine the most that the recently created Space.com was substantial until the early 1950s, CIA impressive UFO cases. Internet site is offering a mix of mostly has since paid only limited and peripheral The Robertson Panel unanimously legitimate space science/technology attention to the phenomena" (emphasis concluded that the best UFO reports news with some UFO nonsense. added). offered no evidence that any UFOs were Space.com disguises its UFO coverage The CIA historian's account would either extraterrestrial or Soviet craft. under the name "Area 51" (part of Nellis have been more accurate had he But, as the Haines report noted, the Air Force Base in Nevada), where some reported that Agency interest in UFOs panel did express concern "that poten­ UFOlogists claim that captured flying was "slight unril mid-1952" when the tial enemies contemplating an attack on saucers are being flight tested. White House requested the CIA to the United States might exploit die For example, on August 20, 1999, make an independent assessment of the UFO phenomena and use them to dis­ Space.com offered credible features then U.S. Air Force conclusion that all rupt U.S. air defenses" or to induce headlined: "Astronomers Discover UFO reports had prosaic explanations. "hysterical mass behavior." For this rea­ Distant Brown Dwarf" and "Satellite The White House request resulted from son, the panel's report was classified Captures Images of Devastating the report of UFOs over Washington "Secret." Additionally, several panel Refinery Fire in Turkey." D.C., based largely on mysterious members did not want it made public But its Area 51 section feature was "blips" on the National Airport radar. that they served as CIA consultants. headlined: "CIA Rues UFO Cover-up," The U.S. Air Force initially suggested The Haines report stated that the a grossly misleading article by that the UFO blips were the result of a panel recommended that the National Space.com staff writer Robert Scott temperature-inversion—later confirmed Security Council—not the CIA—insti­ Martin. by a Federal Aviation Administration tute a policy of public education (possi­ Martin's article began: Not only has investigation. But the widespread media bly including a Walt Disney movie) to the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency coverage and doubts about the USAF reassure the public that UFOs had pro­ admitted its role in trying to 'correct'pub­ explanation of the incident prompted saic explanations. But no such govern­ lic opinion about UFOs over the last half the White House request to the CIA. ment-sponsored program was ever century, it now believes the policy caused The foregoing information on what funded. The task of educating the pub­ 'major problems' in dealing with the briefly spurred active CIA interest in lic fell to the U.S. Air Force's Project public. In an internal report entitled UFOs in mid-1952 was disclosed in Blue Book office, which was responsible 'CIAs Role in the Study of UFOs, approximately 1,000 documents the for investigating major UFO cases and 1947-90,' agency historian Gerald K. Agency released in late 1978 in response trying to find prosaic explanations. Haines portrayed the CIA as consistently to a Freedom Of Information Act There is not an iota of evidence in and deliberately working to suppress (FOIA) request. Some of die docu­ the Haines report to support Martin's reports of unidentified aerial phenomena ments, such as those dealing with the claim that the CIA "consistently and since modern UFO sightings began with CIA's response to the White House deliberately work[ed) to suppress reports the Kenneth Arnold case of 194T request, were previously classified of unidentified aerial phenomena." This (emphasis added). Both of the foregoing "Secret." (Highlights are detailed in my was a practical impossibility because the (italicized) claims are false. They are book UFOs: The Public Deceived pub­ CIA has no means to control what is based on Martin's paranoid misinterpre­ lished by Prometheus Books in 1983, published and broadcast by die news tation of a report by CIA historian which is frequendy cited as footnote ref­ media. Haines which was first published more erences in die Haines report.) For the sue years prior to 1953, a than two years ago but only recendy In mid-1952, there were a few people yearly average of slightly less than 400 "discovered" by the UFO media. Haines within the CIA who wanted to obtain UFO sightings were reported to the explained the genesis of his 1997 report National Security Council authorization United States Air Force (USAF). From as follows: "In late 1993, after being for the Agency to launch its own UFO 1953 until the USAF closed down its pressured by UFOlogists for the release investigatory effort, but others were Project Blue Book UFO-investigating

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER November/December 1999 5 NEWS AND COMMENT

office in 1969, the yearly average num­ verse is too emotionally appealing. . . ." cance in round numbers. But nothing in ber of UFO sightings reported to the Haines did not make any such reference the Bible suggests that the Second USAF was more than 600—an increase to "tactics of silence and repression." Coming (or any other cataclysmic of more than 50 percent. Rather, his closing statement was: "Like event) will occur on the millennial In the third paragraph of the the JFK assassination conspiracy theo­ anniversary of Christ's birth. Space.com story, Martin implies that ries, the UFO issue probably will not go In some areas in India, pregnant Haines is withholding some significant away soon... ." women were told not to leave their UFO data: "Still, even in a [Haines] homes during the eclipse, lest their paper filled with covert attempts on the Philip }. Klass is a long-time UFO inves­ unborn children be blinded. Other part of both the CIA and the Air Force tigator and CSICOP Fellow. Indians believed that anyone holding a to 'persuade the public that UFOs were sharp object during the eclipse, such as a not extraordinary,' Haines himself con­ knife or axe, would be cut by the object. tinued the suppressive policy, perhaps No doubt the earthquake in Turkey a unconsciously, by writing that the CIA week later, coupled with the beginning paid only limited and peripheral atten­ of the Caribbean hurricane season and tion to the [UFO] phenomena' since the tropical storm Dennis, only fed the fires early 1950s" (emphasis added). of fear in doomsayers throughout the Martin ignores specific examples world. cited by Haines that show the CIA's minimal interest in UFOs after the early —Benjamin Radford 1950s. For example, after the Robertson Panel report, the CIA assigned responsi­ Benjamin Radford is Managing Editor of the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER. bility for keeping abreast of the UFO The November 3. 1994, eclipse as seen from Chile situation to its Physics and Electronics (NASA) Division, headed by Todos M. Odarenko. Instead of being pleased, August 11 Eclipse Feeds False Memory News Haines reported, "Odarenko sought to have his division relieved of the respon­ Superstition, Fears A woman who said her therapist con­ sibility for monitoring UFO reports. In vinced her she had been raped by a 1955, for example, he recommended The last total eclipse of the twentieth satanic cult and had killed an infant that the entire project be century came and went without disaster, was awarded $200,000 by a California terminated. . . ." despite nervous religious apocalyptics of jury on June 21, 1999. Ms. Leah Strout The Haines report said: "Agency offi­ all faiths. Simpson began seeing therapist Roger cials felt the need to keep informed on For months, apocalyptic Christians Litwin in 1986, when she was in her UFOs ;/ only to alert the Director of have been flocking to Jerusalem to be in early twenties. Although Simpson did Central Intelligence to the more sensa­ the Holy Land at the turn of the millen­ not initially relate stories of satanic tional UFO reports and flaps." But the nium. To many there, the August 11 abuse, Litwin treated her for multiple Martin story distorts this to read: "Even eclipse was additional evidence that the personality disorder. Simpson came to though the agency itself had a declining end is near. According to a CBS news believe she had been involved in ritual interest in UFO cases by the late 1950s, report, one woman awaited Christ on abuse and murder, and became suici­ /'/ was still spending considerable resources the Mount of Olives, saying, "The Bible dally depressed. She finally realized looking out for the more sensational UFO says there will be signs in the heavens." that what she thought were long- reports and 'flaps' in order to suppress Another waiting believer said, "The repressed memories were in fact them" (emphasis added). eclipse goes together with everything untrue, an artifact of her treatment. Still more spurious attributions to else in the sky. To me, it means that The jury held Simpson to be 35 per­ the Haines report are found in the con­ something is coming about." Such cent at fault for what happened to her. cluding portions of Martin's article. beliefs can be fed by Biblical passages Litwin's lawyer said that his diagnosis For example: "At the end, Haines such as ".. . And the sun shall be dark­ and treatment were witJiin accepted concluded, the tactics of silence and ened, and the moon shall not give her professional standards. repression were a failure. The UFO issue light " (Matthew 24:29). Two months later, on August 30, the probably will not go away soon, no mat­ Many find the year 2000 significant California Supreme Court opened the ter what the agency does or says. The because of our ten-based number system door for prosecutors to try alleged child belief that we are not alone in the uni­ and our penchant for finding signifi­ molesters for crimes they are accused of

6 November/December 1999 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER NEWS AND COMMENT committing decades ago. The ruling MH upheld a 1994 state law that allows molestation charges to be filed within a 'Intelligent Design's' Chinese year of the case being reported to 'Deep Throat? authorities, regardless of when the crime occurred. In the wake of die Kansas decision, Berkeley law professor Phillip E. Justice Marvin Baxter's majority Johnson, one of die most visible critics of evolution, wrote a column in die opinion noted that "young victims August 16, 1999, Wall Street Journal ("The Church of Darwin"). In it, often have difficulty remembering and Johnson, an outspoken advocate of "intelligent design" theory, the latest reporting traumatic abuse at the hands incarnation of creationist strategy, mentioned a "Chinese paleontologist" of adults. ..." This statement con­ who, he said, "lectures around the world saying that recent fossil finds in trasts sharply with the professional his country are inconsistent with the Darwinian theory of evolution." opinions of many psychologists critical Physicist David E. Thomas, president of New Mexicans for Science of recovered memories, who say that in and Reason and a SKEPTICAL INQUIRER contributing editor, wrote what he fact people who experience traumatic describes as a cordial note to Johnson asking him who the Chinese pale­ events typically have difficulty forget­ ontologist is and if he has published any articles Thomas could look at, ting the events, not remembering for example in Science, or any other accessible journals or books. them. On August 30 Johnson replied. He told Thomas he's not releasing the The ruling allows prosecutors to file scientist's name in case someone wants to make trouble. Also, he said, the charges only when the accusation is scientist hasn't published anydiing in English yet. corroborated by independent evi­ "My jaw dropped," says Thomas. "I'd expect a 'Deep Throat" in poli­ dence, excluding a psychiatric opinion. tics^—but in science?" Nevertheless, a representative of "Johnson and the anti-cvo crowd can cite a 'scientist' in die Wall Street California Attorneys for Criminal Journal, creating an authority out of whole cloth, without so much as a Justice, Charles Sevilla, said that ruling single article or report to examine, much less a real person. Many cre­ would lead to prosecutions based on ationists are already citing this very Wall Street Journal article as evidence dubious evidence, especially the scien­ of scientific opposition to Darwin; for example, see columns by M.D. tifically questionable theory of recov­ Harmon (Portland Press Herald August 23) and Darrell White (Baton ered memory. Rouge Advocate, August 28)."

—Benjamin Radford —K.F.

The Monkey Business in Kansas

The governor called it an embarrass­ ment to the state. Media reported it worldwide. Op-ed page columnists pontificated. Editorial cartoonists lampooned. Scientists and educators lambasted it. Creationists welcomed it. Politicians waffled. Civil libertarians threatened suit. A Washington Post columnist even wrote a biting and hilarious "memo from God" to those who made the deci­ sion saying, "Man I gave a brain. Use it, okay?" HI' • i • i i mm • • i • i • • • • When the Kansas Board of iiiiiii Education, in one of the most far- KA33SAS SCHOOL RQeVRD reaching efforts yet by creationists to challenge die teaching of evolution in

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER November/December 1999 7 NEWS AND COMMENT

•• January, the discussion focused almost exclusively on if and how evolution VP Gore Sidesteps, Backtracks, Stumbles should be included in die standards. Forward One member of the board, Steve Abrams, a conservative and a former state Republican chairman, said he had "some When presidential candidates campaigning in Iowa were asked their serious questions" about the proposed views on the Kansas decision, most seemed confused, and none came out new standards and claimed "it is not widi a clear statement supporting good science. Several supported cre- good science to teach evolution as fact." ationism. Then physicist Robert Park's "What's News" electronic He and odier creationists rewrote the newsletter, published by the American Physical Society, asked Vice standards, deleting most of the two pages President Al Gore's presidential campaign office for Gore's reaction, and on evolution. He also tried to insert the his spokesperson dodged behind local control. The next week Reuters sentence: "The design and complexity of posed the same question: "The Vice President favors the teaching of evo­ die design of the cosmos requires an lution in public schools," the spokesman replied. Unfortunately he did­ intelligent designer." That sentence was n't stop there. "Obviously that decision should and will be made at the stricken after protests by scientists. local level, and localities should be free to teach creationism as well," he added. After mondis of deadlock, the board "Gasp!" exclaimed Park. "The Supreme Court ruled that unconstitu­ approved the rewritten standards by a tional in 1987. Informed of that, the spokesman called Reuters several vote of 6 to 4. hours later with a clarification: 'The Vice President supports the right of Kansas Governor Bill Graves strongly school boards to teach creationism within the context of religious courses criticized the action. He called it "a ter­ and not science courses.'" rible, tragic, embarrassing solution to a problem diat didn't exist. ... I think —K.F this decision is so out of sync with real­ ity that in some ways it minimizes, sort of, die credibility and the ovetsight that die state board is supposed to have on schools, voted to delete virtually any tant concept in modern biology, a con­ schools." He said die state board won't mention of evolution from the state's cept key to understanding key aspects of be able to stop the teaching of evolu­ science curriculum, the decision set off a living tilings," but creationists and their tion. "What are they going to do, hire firestorm of national commentary and sympathizers in the public have increas­ die evolution police?" he said. debate and brought the political power ingly been successful at the local and Bill Wagnon, a board member who of the creationist movement at die local sometimes the state level in ignoring all opposed die new standards, said diey level into bold and ugly relief. pleas from scientists and educators for could make Kansas science students "the The Kansas decision deleted not what makes for good science. laughingstock of the world." only most references to biological evo­ The Kansas controversy goes back The Kansas Education Commis­ lution but also references to the Big more than a year to when a Kansas sioner, Andy Tompkins, insisted the Bang theory, a hallmark of modern Science Education Writing Committee, standards won't remove evolution from cosmology. a panel of twenty-seven scientists and Kansas classrooms. The action exemplifies the efforts of professors co-chaired by John Staver and But such decisions have a way of creationists in the United States to Loren Lutes, began drafting a state ver­ intimidating teachers from fordirighdy delete virtually all mention of evolu­ sion of new national science-teaching addressing evolution—indeed diat is die tion in science curricula and to present guidelines. According to Staver, their whole point of die creationists' political an image of evolution—in contrast to work embraced die vision and content efforts with school boards. Evolution will all facts—as a marginalized theory of die National Science Education now not be included in die state assess­ with little scientific support. This Standards (National Research Council, ment tests diat students in Kansas take, became their tactic after a series of 1996) and Benchmarks for Science which lessens any motivation for teachers court decisions repeatedly declared the Literacy (Project 2061, American to spend time on the subject in class. teaching of creationism unconstitu­ Association for the Advancement of tional. Science, 1993), which includes biologi­ —Kendrick Frazier The National Academy of Sciences, cal and cosmological evolutionary con­ the nation's foremost organization of sci­ cepts. Once Staver's committee began Kendrick Frazier is Editor of the entists, calls evolution "die most impor­ meeting with the school board in SKEPTICAL INQUIRER. •

8 November/December 1999 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER New Analyses Raise Doubts About Replicability of ESP Findings

SCOTT O. LILIENFELD

he 150-year history of research of positive results, and "psi missing" mental imagery that comes to mind. on extrasensory perception refers to ESP performance that is sig­ Finally, the percipient is presented with T(ESP) has been plagued by nificantly worse than chance (see a set of several (typically four) visual what might be termed a consistent Gilovich, T., 1991, How We Know stimuli, only one of which is die stim­ inconsistency. As University of Oregon What Isn't So, New York: Free Press, for ulus viewed by the sender, and asked to psychologist Ray Hyman points out, a good discussion). These terms under­ rate the extent to which each stimulus this body of litetature has followed an score the absence of a crucial feature matches die mental imagery experi­ all-too-familiar pattern. Seemingly that is a hallmark of mature laboratory enced during the session. promising and potentially exciting sciences, namely a readily transportable The logic of the Ganzfeld technique effects using a novel experimental para­ "experimental recipe" that can yield relies on die concept of the signal-to- digm are reported, only to fizzle out replicable results across independent noise ratio. The mental information upon closer scrutiny. Each round of laboratories. ostensibly detected by ESP percipients is replication failures engenders a brief This pessimistic state of affairs posited to be an extremely weak signal period of disillusionment and disen­ appeared to change, however, in 1994, that is typically obscured by a large chantment, which sets the stage for when Cornell University psychologist number of extraneous stimuli. By plac­ concerted attempts to find a new and Daryl Bern, in conjunction with the ing die percipient in a uniform sensory improved paradigm. late University of Edinburgh parapsy- field, the Ganzfeld technique is hypoth­ Eventually, positive findings using chologist Charles Honorton, published esized to decrease die proportion of yet another novel paradigm are a remarkable article in Psychological noise relative to signal and diereby per­ reported, followed by another round of Bulletin, one of psychology's two most mit investigators to uncover normally replication failures, and so on. prestigious review journals. Bern and weak ESP effects. Moreover, in contrast to the argot of Honorton reported on a series of eleven With the aid of a statistical technique what Imre Lakatos termed "progres­ studies using the "Ganzfeld" (a termed meta-analysis, which permits sive" scientific research programs, the German word meaning "whole field") researchers to quantitatively pool results lexicon of parapsychology is replete paradigm, a method that originated in across a number of studies, Bern and with terms describing the absence of the 1930s. Subjects ("percipients") in a Honorton reported what appeared to be effects. The "experimenter (shyness) Ganzfeld experiment are immersed in a strong, if not convincing, evidence for effect" refers to die failure to obtain uniform sensory field, typically by cov­ ESP. The subjects in dieir meta-analysis positive findings when skeptical ering their eyes with Ping-Pong ball obtained overall target "hit" rates of researchers are present, the "decline halves, directing a red floodlight approximately 35 percent, where chance effect" refers to die disappearance or toward ttieir eyes, and pumping white performance would be only 25 percent. marked diminution of ESP effects noise into their ears through head­ Moreover, Bern and Honorton reported within a session following an initial run phones. Another individual (the several psychologically meaningful pre­ "sender") located in an acoustically dictors of Ganzfeld performance. Scott O. Lilienfeld is an assistant professor shielded room attempts to transmit a Subjects who 1) were artistically creative of psychology at Emory University and a specific visual stimulus to the percipi­ (music, drama, and dance students SKEPTICAL INQUIRER consulting editor. ent, who then is asked to report all Continued on page 12

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER November/December 1999 9 Fund Future CSICOP AT THE CENTER FOR INQUIRY 1999 PRIORITY

Using the Media & Telecommunications to Promote Science and Reason W The Fund for the Future is a capital campaign to provide CSICOP with the resources ^p needed to more effectively influence media and public opinion. The 90s have been defined by a telecommunications revolution, along with an explosion of misinformation available to the scholar and citizen alike. The hunger for superstition, pseudoscience, the paranormal and miraculous solutions has never been more acute.

The Ten-Year Plan

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Focusing Upon the Young To present the skeptical message more compellingly to the young. CSICOP will develop new materials— ranging from age-appropriate print publications to audio and video cassettes and instructional coursework. Goals include enhanced understanding of science and improved critical thinking skills. recruited from the Julliard School), Edinburgh and Richard Wiseman of Wiseman's findings appear to be a case 2) extroverted, 3) had previous ESP-like the University of Hertfordshire pub­ of "dej& vu all over again." Seemingly experiences (but who were "novices," lished an updated meta-analysis of replicable parapsychological findings i.e., had no previous experience as thirty recent Ganzfeld studies not have again proven to be disconcertingly Ganzfeld subjects), 4) had previously reviewed by Bern and Honorton. elusive, and die experimental ESP liter­ studied a mental discipline, such as Milton and Wiseman's findings, which ature has again proven to be consistently meditation (but who similarly were were published recently ("Does Psi inconsistent. novices), and 5) received high scores on Exist? Lack of Replication of an Parapsychologists have already self-report indices of emotionality and Anomalous Process at Information begun to raise questions regarding perceptual orientation to the environ­ Transfer," Psychological Bulletin Milton and Wiseman's findings and ment obtained especially high hit rates. 125(4): 387-391), stand in stark con­ conclusions. For example, some have In addition, experimental conditions trast to those of Bern and Honorton criticized Milton and Wiseman for using dynamic visual stimuli yielded and raise serious questions concerning including a heterogeneous set of studies higher hit rates than those using static the replicability of the Ganzfeld find­ in dieir meta-analysis, and have pointed visual stimuli. ings. Specifically, Milton and Wiseman out that several studies in their database Bern and Honorton's findings, reported a mean effect size across all were in fact statistically significant. which were widely disseminated in both thirty studies of .013, which corre­ Nevertheless, Milton and Wiseman die popular and academic press, have sponds to essentially chance perfor­ reported that a statistical test of homo­ stirred fresh hopes in the parapsychol­ mance and can most charitably be geneity conducted on the individual ogy community that a truly replicable described as negligible. effect sizes suggested that the studies in method of eliciting ESP effects may at Moreover, Milton and Wiseman their meta-analysis can be regarded as last be at hand. Moreover, they have failed to replicate Bern and Honorton's being drawn from the same overall been cited in several popular books, findings that a previous history of ESP- "population" of studies. including Dean Radins The Conscious like experiences and the use of dynamic It seems likely that Milton and Universe, and Courtney Brown's Cosmic targets predicted enhanced Ganzfeld Wiseman's meta-analysis will not be the Voyage, as providing very promising, if performance. (Because of insufficient final word on the Ganzfeld technique, not conclusive, support for the existence information in the studies, Milton and and the question of whether this tech­ of ESP. Wiseman were unable to directly exam­ nique will prove to be the replicable par­ Although some critics, like Ray ine Bern and Honorton's other predic­ adigm long sought by parapsychologists Hyman, found statistical anomalies in tors, such as extroversion.) In contrast, or merely another tantalizing will-o'-the- the Bern and Honorton data set suggest­ Milton and Wiseman did find that pre­ wisp is far from conclusively resolved. ing the possible existence of subtle but vious participation in a mental disci­ It is evident, however, that the ball is damaging experimental artifacts (see pline among novices predicted now back in the court of parapsycholo­ Hyman, R., SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, enhanced Ganzfeld performance. gists, who will need to convince open- March/April 1996; and Hyman, R., Ironically, however, a re-examination of minded skeptics that the Ganzfeld tech­ Psychological Bulletin, 1994), Bern and Bern and Honorton's analyses revealed nique will not go the way of J. B. Honorton's meta-analysis was regarded that this predictor was incorrectly iden­ Rhine's classic Zener card studies, Targ by many as offering the most com­ tified as statistically significant in their and Puthoff's remote viewing studies, pelling laboratory evidence to date for original article, suggesting that the over­ and other superficially promising but the existence of ESP. all findings for the mental discipline ultimately disappointing ESP para­ This is essentially where things variable in fact amount to another repli­ digms. Odierwise, it may soon be back stood until a few months ago, when cation failure. In the words of baseball to the drawing board for yet another Julie Milton of the University of hall-of-famer Yogi Berra, Milton and paradigm. D

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12 November/December 1999 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER NOTES OF A FRINGE-WATCHER MARTIN GARDNER

The Star of Bethlehem

Now when Jesus was born in men to Bethlehem. When Copernicus, Hill), Jupiter and Saturn, throughout Bethlehem of Judea in the days of Kepler, and Galileo ushered in the rise the period of their proximity, were never Herod the king, behold there came closer together than two diameters of wise men from the east to Jerusalem, of empirical science, it became fashion­ Saying, Where is he that is born able for Christian scholars to seek nat­ the Moon as it appears in the sky. In King of the Jews? for we have seen ural causes for events which the Bible 1846 British astronomer Charles his star in the east, and arc come to clearly describes as supernatural. Pritchard did some careful research on worship him. . . . and lo, the star, the event. Because of the erratic looping which they saw in the east, went One of the most popular and before them, till it came and stood longest lasting of natural explanations paths of die two planets, as seen from over where the young child was. of the Star was put forth by Kepler. He Earth, diere were diree separate close When they saw the star, the rejoiced suggested in a 1606 tract that the Star encounters. Astronomers call it a "triple with exceeding great joy. was actually a conjunction of Jupiter conjunction." and Saturn that occurred in 7 B.C. in The two giant planets were closest on Matthew 2: 1-2,9-10 the constellation of Pisces the Fish. He May 29, October 1, and December 5. was not the first to suggest this; die "Even with ... the strange postulate of s Christmas approaches, Protes­ conjecture can be found in English someone with weak eyes," Pritchard tant and Catholic churches will church annals as far back as 1285, but wrote, "the planets could not have Abe celebrating the birth of Jesus, Kepler was the first to argue the possi­ appeared as one star." Marshall adds: with many references in sermons and bility at length. The constellation's "Only an abysmally weak pair of eyes Sunday schools to the Star of Bedile- name was a happy coincidence because could have ever merged diem." hem. The nation's some hundred a fish had long been, as still is today, a There are other objections to planetariums will be devoting Christmas symbol of the Christian church and its Kepler's guess. A much closer meeting programs to possible natural causes of believers. of the same two planets occurred in 66 the Star. According to the book of Scholars now agree mat Jesus was B.C. As Arthur C. Clarke says in his Matthew, the only gospel to give an born sometime between 4 and 8 B.C. entertaining essay "The Star of account of the Star, the wise men from Matthew dates the birth as in the "days Bethlehem" (Chapter 4 in his collec­ the east (their number is not given, but of Herod." Herod is known to have died tion of essays Report on Planet Three, tradition makes it three) were guided early in 4 B.C. so Jesus must have been 1972), this event "should have brought westward by the Star to tiie stable where born before then. The exact year is, of a delegation of wise men to Bethlehem the newborn Jesus lay in a manger.' course, unknown, though it could well sixty years too soon!" There was no room at die inn for his have been at die time of die 7 B.C. Each of die diree conjunctions of 7 parents (perhaps I should say "parent" Jupiter-Saturn conjunction. B.C. lasted only a few days, whereas because die gospels make clear that Kepler later had doubts about his Matthew has the Star guiding the wise Joseph was not the baby's fadier). conjecture. As astronomer Roy K. men throughout a journey that must Saint Augustine and other early Marshall points out in his booklet The have taken at least several weeks. Finally, Catholic theologians took for granted Star of Bethlehem (published in 1949 by rJiat the Star was one of God's miracles, the Morehead Planetarium, at the Martin Gardner's latest book is Visitors placed in the heavens to lead die wise University of North Carolina, Chapel from Oz.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER November/December 1999 13 the two planets would rise and set like give to Urantia, the cult's name for ebrated annually by Urantians. (For ordinary stars, planets, and the Sun and Earth, a new revelation destined to more on the bizarre Urantia movement Moon, but Matthew describes the Star supersede Christianity. On page 1352 see my book Urantia: The Great Cult Mystery, recently reprinted in paper­ back by Prometheus Books.) Other planetary conjunctions in later Kepler suggested in a 1606 tract that the years have been considered as possible Star was actually a conjunction of Jupiter and explanations of the Star. For example, a spectacular merging of Jupiter and Saturn that occurred in 7 B.C. in the Venus took place on June 17, 2 B.C. The constellation of Pisces the Fish. disks of die two planets actually over­ lapped! This candidate for the Star is defended by James De Young and James Hilton in "Star of Bethlehem" (Sky and as lingering in the sky as it glided slowly of the Urantia Book we learn that the Telescope, April 1973), and again by toward Bethlehem. Kepler eventually Jupiter-Saturn encounter of May 29, 7 Roger Sinnott in "Computing die Star decided the Star was created by God B.C., gave the appearance of a single of Bethlehem" (Sky and Telescope, between Jupiter and Saturn when they star, which we know it didn't, and this December 1986). Jupiter and Venus were close together. accounts for what the supermortals call were last that close in 1818, and won't Kepler's original con­ be again until 2065. jecture became popu-1 Still another con­ lar among nineteenth- S tender for the Star is a century Christians, espe­ supernoval explosion that cially in Germany where occurred in the spring of the so-called "higher 5 B.C. in the constellation criticism" of the Bible of Capricorn. You'll find favored natural causes this argued by British for Biblical miracles. astronomer David H. The 7 B.C. theory was Clark and two associates also defended in endless in The Quarterly Journal popular biographies of of the Royal Astronomical Jesus published in Society (December 1977). Christian countries. In Other speculations, too England the Anglican absurd to consider, have cleric Frederic W. Farrar, hung the Star on Venus, in his Life of Christ comets, exploding mete­ (1874), devotes several ors, and even ball light­ pages to a scholarly dis­ ning. cussion of the 7 B.C. Immanuel Velikovsky, conjunction. Samuel J. an orthodox Jew, strug­ Andrews, in The Life of gled to invent natural Our Lord Upon the causes for Old Testament Earth (1891), an Amer­ miracles. He was not, of ican work, also takes course, interested in Kepler's theory seriously. doing the same thing for In recent years the 7 the New Testament mira­ B.C. conjecture has cles. He even proposed a been revived in the natural explanation of lengthy life of Jesus sec­ how Joshua made die Sun tion that makes up the ^ "** ™" 9uided by the Star of Bethlehem. and Moon stop moving: final third of the mas­ It was really Earth diat sive Urantia Book (1955). This bible of the "beautiful legend" that grew up ceased rotating. This was caused by a the Urantia movement purports to about the "Star." The supermortals, or mammoth comet tliat erupted from have been written entirely by super- "unseen friends" as Urantians like to Jupiter, and passed close to Eardi before mortals who channeled the text call diem, reveal that Jesus was born at it settled down to become Venus! Some through members of die movement to noon, August 21,7 B.C. It is a date cel­ of today's far-out New Agers who

14 November/December 1999 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER believe in the reality of PK (psychokine­ be so cruel as to murder all the innocent "African American." sis) regard Jesus as a great psychic who little babies. He replied that God foresaw Let the Bible be the Bible! It's not used natural psi powers to walk on how wicked they would become if about science. It's not accurate history. water, multiply loaves and fish, turn allowed to grow up! It is a grab bag of religious fantasies water into wine, and perform other stu­ In my not-so-humble opinion, the written by many authors. Some of its pendous feats of magic. story of the Star is pure myth, similar myths, like the Star of Bethlehem, are Ellen Gould White, prophetess and to many ancient legends about the very beautiful. Others are dull and one of the founders of Seventh-day miraculous appearance of a star to her­ ugly. Some express lofty ideals, such as Adventism, had a much simpler, and ald a great event, such as the birth of the parables of Jesus. Others are more sensible, approach to the Bible's Caesar, Pythagoras, Krishna (the morally disgusting. I think of the tragic great miracles. She took them to be mir­ Hindu savior), and other famous per­ legend about the rash vow of Jephtha acles. In The Desire of Ages, her book on sons and deities. Aeneas is said to have that prompted him to sacrifice his the life of Jesus, she explains die Star as been guided by a star as he traveled daughter. (Why docs St. Paul speak of westward from Troy to the spot where follows: Jephtha as a man of great faith?) Or the he founded Rome. (1 was unable to account of how an angry Jehovah slew The wise men had seen a mysterious find a reference to this in Virgil's Moses' two nephews with lightning light in the heavens upon that night Aenead, and would be grateful to any when the glory of God flooded the bolts merely because they failed to mix reader who can locate the reference for hills of Bethlehem. As the light faded, the incense properly for a sacrifice. me.) The legend about the Star of a luminous star appeared, and lin­ God didn't like the way the smoke gered in the sky. It was not a fixed star Bethlehem is believed by many scholars smelled! The Old Testament's God is as nor a planet. .. . That star was a dis­ to have arisen to fulfill a prophecy in skillful as Zeus at using lightning as a tant company of shining angels.... Numbers 24:17, "I shall see him [God], but not now. I shall behold weapon of punishment. The association of the Star with The King James Bible is itself a near- angels goes back to the early Church fathers. Longfellow, in the third section of his miracle-play "The Nativity" (it is part of his book Christus: A Mystery), I find it hard to comprehend why fundamentalist toys with the notion that the Star was Christians, who believe the Bible's miracles to be held in the sky by angels. There were seven: angels of the Sun, Moon, actual events, would even try to find natural Mercury, Venus, Mars, Jupiter, and explanations for what the Bible clearly describes Saturn. Here is Longfellow's opening stanza: as divine supernatural phenomena.

The Angels of the Planets Seven, Across die shining fields of heaven The natal star we bring! him, but not nigh: there shall come a miracle, its poetic style far more beauti­ Dropping our sevenfold virtues down star out of Jacob, and a Sceptre shall ful and moving than any modern trans­ As priceless jewels in the crown Of Christ, our new-born King. rise out of Israel." lation in English or any other language. Although I do not think the Star of It is also an improvement over the fre­ What is my opinion about all this? I Bethlehem ever existed, or was an illu­ quently crude writing by the old find it hard to comprehend why conserv­ sion caused by a natural astronomical Hebrew and Greek authors. The King ative and fundamentalist Christians, who event, I find Mrs. White's statement James Bible is a literary masterpiece best believe the Bible's miracles to be actual more to be admired than the futile left unaltered. It is a classic to put on a events, would even try to find natural efforts of liberal Christians to banish shelf alongside the great fantasies of explanations for what die Bible clearly from the Bible all references to God's Homer, Virgil, Dante, Milton, and yes, describes as divine supernatural phenom­ miraculous powers. I find this almost as even the Koran. ena. The Jehovah of die Scriptures has degrading of the Bible as the efforts of awesome powers to suspend natural laws ultra-feminist Christian leaders to Note and do whatever He wants. Why trouble expunge from Scripture every sentence to look for natural causes of the great in which God is called "Father" (or 1. Matthew's account of the visiting magi is downpour by which God drowned every given any other masculine term), and retold in greater detail in the apocryphal Book of James, a Greek manuscript of the second cen­ man, woman, and child on Earth, as well Jesus is called "Son." The practice strikes tury. Legend has it that it was written by a half as their pets, except for one undistin­ me as even more ridiculous than trying brother of Jesus. According to Origen, he was guished family and die few animals they to change "nigger," in such classic novels one of Josephs sons by a former marriage. Chapter 15, verse 7, describes the Star as so huge took on their Ark? I once asked a as Huckleberry Finn, and Joseph and bright that it rendered all the other stars Seventh-day Adventist why God would Conrad's Nigger of the Narcissus, to invisible. D

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER November/December 1999 15 INVESTIGATIVE FILES JOE NICKELL

Curses: Foiled Again

he tragic death of John F. John F, is assassinated. widi tragedy. But is it evidence of a curse? Kennedy, Jr., on July 16, 1999, 1964: Son, Edward, is injured in What exacdy is meant by the term? Tsparked renewed claims of a plane crash that kills an aide. Actually a "curse"—also known as a "Kennedy curse"—only the latest in a 1968: Son, Robert F, is assassinated "hex" or "jinx"—is an alleged paranor­ series of alleged popular hexes such as while campaigning for Democratic pres­ mal assault that can supposedly result in the Hope Diamond jinx and the curse idential nomination. physical or mental injury or illness— of King Tuts mummy. 1969: Son, Edward, narrowly even death. Known to New Age mystics During live CBS coverage of the escapes death when car plunges off as a "psychic attack" (Guiley 1991), a search for Kennedy's missing airplane, bridge on Chappaquidick Island, curse is an ancient concept said to have Dan Rather (1999) referred to "the killing a passenger. either human direction (as from a sor­ alleged Kennedy curse," while after die 1973: Grandson, Joe (son of Robert cerer) or a supernatural one (such as by bodies of Kennedy and his wife and sis­ and Ethel), overturns a Jeep, paralyzing angry gods, demonic spirits, or die like). ter-in-law were recovered, U.S. News & a passenger. As an example of die first, in die Old World Report (July 26, 1999) ran a 1973: Grandson, Edward M. Ken­ Testament when Noah became dis­ front-cover story unequivocally titled nedy, Jr., has leg amputated due to can­ pleased by his son Ham, he placed a "The Kennedy Curse." A Buffalo News cer. curse on him (Genesis 9: 21-27); and, headline spoke more factually of a "lita­ 1984: Grandson, David (son of as a supernatural example, Jehovah dealt ny of Kennedy tragedies" (Anthony Robert and Ethel), dies of drug over­ with an intransigent pharaoh by visiting 1999), a list that varies from source to dose. upon him ten plagues (Exodus 7-12). source but generally includes the follow­ 1991: Grandson, William Kennedy Various occurrences could spark belief ing misfortunes in the family of Joseph Smith (son of Jean Ann Kennedy), is in die existence of psychic attacks. For and Rose Fitzgerald Kennedy: charged with rape but acquitted in trial. example, although the plagues on 1941: Daughter, Rosemary, is insti­ 1994: Daughter-in-law, Jacqueline, pharaoh are not mentioned in any source tutionalized due to retardation and die dies of cancer. other than die Bible (Asimov 1968), and effects of an unsuccessful lobotomy. 1997: Grandson, Michael (son of some see the account as pure allegory 1944: Son, Joseph, Jr., dies in air­ Robert and Ethel), is killed in "ski foot­ (Graham 1979), such phenomena can plane explosion in World War II. ball" accident. occur naturally. (Proliferations of locusts 1948: Daughter, Kathleen, dies in And this is only a partial list. Senator and frogs, for instance, are not unknown, plane crash in France. Edward Kennedy's son Patrick sought and die water turning to "blood" could 1963 (August 9): Grandchild, Patrick treatment for drug addiction in 1985 be equated with a "red Nile" wherein (son of President John F. and Jacqueline and Michael Kennedy, before his fatal flood waters are colored by lake deposits Kennedy), dies after premature birth. accident, was disgraced due to an [Keller 1995; Acquistapace 1991].) 1963 (November 22): Son, President alleged affair with a 14-year-old baby A phenomenon that can actually sitter (Davis 1984; Thomas 1998; simulate a psychic attack is the "hag syn­ Joe Nickell is CSICOP's Senior Research Anthony 1999; Salkin 1999; Kelly and drome." Typically the "victim" awakens Fellow and author of many books on the Walsh 1999). to feel a weight pressing on the chest paranormal Certainly the list is as long as it is filled and to see bizarre imagery (e.g. an "old

16 November/December 1999 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER hag," incubus, vampire, or die like). Niagara Falls known as "Devil's Hole" to King Tuts tomb and the infamous Known from ancient times, and esti­ that is allegedly "cursed with an aura of Hope Diamond. After the discovery of mated to occur presendy in some fifteen sheer bad luck." Indeed, asserts one Tutankhamen's lost burial chamber in percent of die world's adult population writer, 1922, expedition financier Lord Carnar­ (Guiley 1991), the syndrome is popular­ Those ghost hunters who wish to ex­ von died of blood poisoning from an ly termed a "waking dream" and occurs plore Devil's Hole must do so at infected insect bite, and in 1926 his for­ in the twilight between being asleep and tremendous personal risk. Only those mer nurse died in childbirth. The awake (Nickell 1995). Because such an blessed with extremely good luck or archaeologist who discovered the tomb, experience may seem quite real Howard Carter, lost two assis­ to the "victim," it could appear tants to what newspapers began to prove to that person that he to call "King Tuts Curse." They or she was actually accursed. reported that there was an Apart from such dramatic inscription over the tomb's "evidence," however, essential­ entrance that read, "Deadi shall ly belief in curses is simply a come to him who touches die superstition—that is, "a belief tomb." Over the years some that some action not logically archaeologists and tourists related to a course of events became ill or even died after influences its outcome" or "any they visited the site. Some have belief, practice, or rite unrea- suggested that a mysterious bac­ soningly upheld by faith in terium or fungus in the tomb magic, chance or dogma" causes people to become ill. (American Heritage 1981). As In fact, there was no curse with other superstitions (such inscription on or in the tomb. as die fear of Friday the thir­ In 1980 the site's former secu­ teenth), once the idea of a rity officer admitted the story curse is planted, it can take of the curse had been circulated root in the imagination so diat in order to frighten away any harmful occurrence is would-be grave robbers. As to counted as evidence for the the misfortunes, there was no jinx, while beneficial events are pattern to them, the "victims" ignored. In this way supersti­ dying of a variety of causes. tious or magical thinking tends Some may have been ill any­ to start widi an answer and way, and the added effects of work backward to the evi­ travel, climate, and other stress­ dence, in contrast to scientific ful factors may have con­ or rational thinking that allows Figure I. Cursed cave? SCEPTICAL INQUIRER Managing Editor Ben Radford tempts tributed to any illness-related gloomy Devil's Hole near Niagara Falls. (Photo by Joe Nickell) evidence to lead to an answer.' deaths. In fact, balancing the This process of focusing only on neg­ who feel that they have nothing left to list of misfortunes is the fact that ten lose should even attempt to study this ative evidence clearly perpetuates many site. The forces at work in this area are years after the pharaoh's tomb was popular "curses," including alleged so strong and unpredictable that even opened all but one of the five who first "Jinxed Seas" like die so-called "Devil's experienced ghost hunters with extra­ entered it were still living. Carter him­ Triangle" of the Atlantic where ships ordinary climbing, survival, and cav­ self lived on until 1939, dying at the age and planes supposedly vanish widiout a ing skills are likely to fall victim to the of sixty-six. Lord Carnarvon's daughter cave's intense aura (Blackman 1998). trace. In fact, however, as Lawrence and others associated with the tomb, David Kusche demonstrated in his Actually, SKEPTICAL INQUIRER man­ including die photographer and Egypt's investigative classic. The Bermuda Tri­ aging editor Ben Radford and I chal­ Chief Inspector of Antiquities, lived angle Mystery Solved (1975), the disap­ lenged Devil's Hole on May 20, 1999 normal life spans. And Dr. Douglas pearances are actually tragedies involv­ (see figure 1) and lived to tell about it. Deny—the man who actually dissected ing a combination of bad weather, heavy (In fact, park official Barry Virgilio told the mummy of Tutankhamen—lived to sea and air traffic, equipment failure, us there was not a high incidence of be over eighty years old (Nickell 1989). human error, and journalistic exaggera­ injury in the area despite heavy pedes­ But has the Hope Diamond—a.k.a. tion and misattribution. (Many inci­ trian traffic, and that accidents were typ­ the "Diamond of Doom"—indeed "left dents attributed to the zone in fact ically due to risky behavior.) a trail of death, debt, and disaster occurred elsewhere.) Other examples of "curses" involving among its owners" ("Diamond" 1976)? Another such example is die site near a selective focus include those attributed The seventeenth-century French trader

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER November/December 1999 17 Jean Baptist Tavernier, who first "charge" them (Bryant and Galde German daily editorialized: "A plane acquired and sold the magnificent blue 1991). crash is a dreadful, horrible banality. But gem to Louis XIV for a king's ransom, A similar process of selection and when a member of the Kennedy dynasty later suffered financial ruin. Louis XVI, hype helps promote "the Kennedy crashes a plane, the accident becomes a who cut the diamond into the shape of curse." In 1984 Newsweek continued a sign of inescapable destiny ... and the a heart, gave it to his queen, Marie long journalistic tradition of describing global infotainment industry has its raw Antoinette, before both were taken to the family as a "star-crossed dynasty" material—the curse of the Kennedys" the guillotine by French revolutionaries. (Beck et al. 1984) and later headlined a (quoted in "Curse or hubris" 1999). Stolen by thieves, the gem—or rather a report on Michael Kennedy's accidental Commendably, the Wichita Falls, Texas, portion of it, cut to its present oval death "The Camelot Curse" (Thomas Times Record News had this to say: shape—surfaced in London where it 1998). In reporting on the John F. The notion that a family is cursed was bought in 1830 by a rich banker Kennedy, Jr., tragedy, one wire service harkens back to the Dark Ages or the named Henry Thomas Hope. story proclaimed that "The legendary early days in this country when The faceted stone then passed women were burned at the stake because they were believed to be through a succession of owners who witches and men were drawn and reportedly suffered such misfortunes as quartered because they were believed bankruptcy, suicide, and even murder. to be inhabited by evil spirits. Yet, In the obituary for one alleged victim even if educated reporters and editors don't actually believe in the fact that a who died in 1947, a United Press story family or an individual can be cursed, declared, "The Hope diamond has a we see that idea promoted to a public long reputation as a 'jinxed' stone whose that borders on scientific illiteracy al­ ownership carries with it a cloud of ready and, as proven by the popular­ ity of all sorts of magical, mystical tragedy" (MacDougall 1983). cures for ailments, the popularity of As with "King Tuts curse," however, horoscopes and psychic readings, that support for the "Hope diamond jinx" is is pretty darn gullible. built on selective evidence. According to Curtis D. MacDougall in his Supersti­ The editorial went on to indicate var­ tion and the Press (1983), "Study of the ious factors that were actually responsi­ complete history of the fabulous jewel ble for the alleged curse and concluded reveals that at least half of those who that, for the notion to be entertained, owned or used it seemingly were not "there needs to be proof that's more rep­ affected by any curse. How unusual is it utable than the zero proof offered right for about half the members of any fam­ now. Extraordinary claims require extra­ ily to experience bad luck?" Moreover, ordinary proof" ("Irresponsible" 1999). he says, since acquiring the stone in The Times Record News editorial Figure 2. Jinxed jeweP Once allegedly doom-laden, 1958, "... the Smithsonian Institution the Hope Diamond now reposes serenely in the writers joined other skeptics in pointing has not suffered from fire, theft, or Smithsonian. (Photo by Joe Nickell) out the real factors that can lead to the death as a result of its famous posses­ perception of a curse. Tacitly acknowl­ sion. Because of the prominence of Kennedy family curse had struck again" edging selectivity, U.S. News conceded many of the diamond's owners the press (quoted in "Irresponsible" 1999). that the Kennedy family was "blessed has kept alive the myth of a curse, trans­ Actually, the Kennedys themselves and cursed all at once" (Kelly and Walsh lating every untoward occurrence to fit have helped foment the myth. For 1999). And former JFK special counsel the pattern" (see figure 2). example, in his television address to the Ted Sorensen (1999), wrote: "The Interestingly, once the selective people of Massachusetts in the wake of Kennedys are not accursed but blessed. process changes focus—as happened the Chappaquidick tragedy, Ted True, diey have endured, with remark­ with the quartz effigy known as the Kennedy (1960) admitted that among able religious faith, more than their pro­ "Crystal Skull"—so do the imagined his "irrational" thoughts of the period portionate 'share' of pain (though that is consequences. Once said to have the had been the question of "whether some never allotted by rhe law of averages power to cause death (Mitchell-Hedges awful curse did actually hang over all the anyway). But they have also been 1954), a claim utterly lacking support Kennedys." And Michael Kennedy had endowed with good genes, good brains, (Nickell 1988), the ersrwhile "Skull of said of Robert Kennedy's assassination, good looks, good health, and good for­ Doom" has become a talisman to New "It was as if fate had turned against us. tune, with both instincts and opportu­ Agers who now "channel" hopeful mes­ There was now a pattern that could not nities for serving their country and help­ sages from it and credit it with wonder­ be ignored" (Kelly and Walsh 1999). ing those less fortunate." ful psychic "energies," even placing their Despite the hype, there has also been In addition to the selective process, own crystals next to it to supposedly much appropriate skepticism. A there is rhe sheer size of the Kennedy

18 November/December 1999 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER family. With nine children producing as happened with JFK's assassination. North American I huntings. New York: Three twenty-nine grandchildren, there have Also, the Kennedy family's involvement Rivers Press, 92-94. Bryant. Alice, and Phyllis Galde. 1991. The been increased opportunities for in various aspects of American society— Message of the Crystal Skull St. Paul, tragedy. Observes Temple University an involvement that increases the family Minnesota: Llewellyn Publications, 49-63, mathematics professor John Allen members' visibility—can help foster 203-207. Curse or hubris—Europe's press mourns JFK Jr. Paulos (1999), "If we look at large fam­ "the perception of more misfortunes" 1999. London: Reuters, July 19. ilies we can sometimes find more death. (Paulos 1999). Davis, John H. 1984. The Kennedys: Dynasty and disease, and tragedy than is generally Disaster. New York: McGraw-Hill. Especially when taken together, these Diamond of doom. 1976. In Perrott Phillips, ed.. expected." factors may help promote superstitious Out of This World vol. 1. N.p.: Phoebus Still another factor is the common belief in a Kennedy curse, although it is Publishing Co., 47-50. Goodwin, Doris Kearns. 1999. Appearance on tendency to connect the unconnected. never stated who or what has cursed the Tim Russert, CNBC, July 24. Much like the impulse that prompts us family or why. But as presidential histo­ Graham, Lloyd M. 1979. Deceptions and Myths of to see pictures in clouds or other ran­ dom forms, there is the impetus to find dubious relationships between events— 'The Kennedys are not accursed but blessed. a son of connect-the-dots tendency that True, they have endured, with remarkable religious the Times Record News observed "seems to be one characteristic of human faith, more than their proportionate 'share' of pain.... nature." Asks the editorial, "When traf­ But they have also been endowed with good fic accidents cluster around one intersec­ tion, would we blame our luck on die genes, good brains, good looks, good health, curse of the car gods or would we recog­ and good fortune." nize that congestion or some other fac­ tor might play the major role in the number of accidents occurring there?" rian Doris Kearns Goodwin (1999) said the Bible. New York Bell, 157-163. Guiley. Rosemary Ellen. 1991. Harper's Encyclo­ ("Irresponsible" 1999). of the cumulative tragedies, the pedia of Mystical & Paranormal Experience. The News joined others in pointing Kennedys' willingness to carry on New York: HarperCollins, 472-474. out the evident Kennedy "propensity for demonstrated "a love of life that's just Irresponsible: The media should rethink the "Kennedy family curse." 1999. Wichita Falls, risk-taking" (Paulos 1999). Although the opposite of giving in to a curse." Texas, Times Record News, July 20. Sorensen (1999) insists die family is And conservative columnist William Keller, Werner. 1995. The Bible as History. 2nd characterized by an adventurous rather Safire concluded (1999): "There is no revised ed. New York: Barnes & Noble, 124. Kelly. Brian, and Kenneth T Walsh. 1999. The than foolhardy spirit, the line between curse that hangs over anybody. It's curse. U.S. News & World Report, July 26, the two often blurs. Michael Kennedy against our idea of free will, whether you 17-21. died as a result of the risky family pas­ buy the Hope diamond or enter King Kennedy, Ted. 1969. Live TV broadcast. July 25, text given in James E.T. Lange and Katherine time of "ski football"—a game the Tuts tomb." DeWitt. Jr. 1992. Chappaquidick: The Real Aspen, Colorado, ski patrol had warned Story. New York: St. Martin's. 171-175. against (Thomas 1998, 23). And a Kusche. Lawrence David. 1975. The Bermuda Note Triangle Mystery Solved Reprinted Buffalo, friend of JFK Jr. stated that the son of New York Prometheus Books, 1986. 1. This contrast in approaches is illustrated the thirty-fifth president "loved to dance MacDougall. Curtis D. 1983. Superstition and the with regard to the Shroud of Turin in my column Press. Buffalo. New York Prometheus Books, on the edge" (Barlow 1999), a tendency "Science vs. 'Shroud Science," SKEPTICAL 206-209. INQUIRER 22(4). July/August 1998: 20-22. that may have been involved in his Mitchell-Hedges, F. A. 1954. Danger My Ally. chancing a nighttime flight. Apart from London: Elek Books, 243. mere advencurousness, simply seeking References Nickell. Joe. 1995. Entities: Angels. Spirits, Demons, and Other Alien Beings. Buffalo, New political office obviously brings Acquistapacc, Fred. 1991. Miracles That Never York: Prometheus Books, 41, 117. increased risk of assassination—a factor Were: Natural Explanations of the Bible's . 1989. The Magic Detectives. Buffalo. New that belies the notion of a curse in the Supernatural Stories. Santa Rosa. California: York: Prometheus Books, 55-56. Eye-Opener Books, 39-79. . 1988. Seems of the Supernatural, with John deaths of President Kennedy and his The American Heritage Desk Dictionary. 1981. F. Fischer. Buffalo, New York: Prometheus brother, presidential candidate Robert F. Boston: Houghton Mifflin Company, s.v. Books, 29-46. Kennedy. 'superstition." Paulos, John Allen. 1999. Curse of the Kennedys? Anthony, Ted. 1999. Litany of Kennedy tragedies ABCNEWS.com. Jury 20. And speaking of assassination there is seen as product of risk-taking lifestyles. The Rather. Dan. 1999. CBS live broadcast. July 17. another factor that aids the perception Buffalo News, Jury 18. Safire, William. 1999. Appearance on 77m Russert, Asimov, Isaac. 1968. Asimov's Guide to the Bible. CNBC, Jury 24. of a curse: visibility. Paulos (1999) notes vol. I. New York Avon, 138. Salkin. Allen. 1999. Clan history is written in that "When a celebrity's private life and Barlow, John Perry. 1999. Appearance on Larry tears. New York Post, July 18. 12-13. death become public, news gets dissem­ King Live, July 19. Sorensen. Theodore C 1999. The Kennedy curse, Beck. Melinda. et al. 1984. A Kennedy shadow and odier myt hs. The New York Times, July 23. inated so rapidly and so thoroughly that legacy? Newsweek, July 2, 25. Thomas, Evan. 1998. The Camelot curse. News- we're blinded to everyone else's lives"— Blackman. W Haden. 1988. The Field Guide to u*ek, January 12.23-29. •

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER November/December 1999 19 PSYCHIC VIBRATIONS ROBERT SHEAFFER

Looking for Mr. Goodape

ver a period of more than Beckjord, who operated the short­ Iridium satellite that looked as bright as twenty years, veteran Bigfoot lived UFO Museum in San Francisco a magnesium flare, appearing much Ochaser Erik Beckjord of the (see http://www.cnn.com/US/9704/19/ more spectacular than any I'd seen before Sasquatch Research Project has camped ufo.museum/index.html), has been pro­ because of the very dark skies. Beckjord with other researchers at a remote spot in claiming for years that all skeptics were says that he had observed an event like California's Sierra Nevada mountains too timid and closed-minded to actually this while researching crop circles in between Yosemite National Park and go out into the woods and confront the England in 1997 but considered it a Lake Tahoe, at an altitude of 6,400 feet. Bigfoot evidence for themselves. Because UFO. Before we retired, he loudly He describes it as a "window site" where, I got tired of hearing this, and because I played a tape of a human infant crying he says, evidence of Bigfoot is almost hadn't been out camping for a while, I (which sounds eerie in the wilderness!), routinely seen. "At this site we have agreed to join die search. "Bring your claiming that is sometimes successful in obtained photos of weird aliens, bigfoot, lady friend," Beckjord urged me. attracting Bigfoot. He then set up two gargoyles, etc. that we never saw when "Bigfoot loves women!" Phoebe, unfor­ "Bigfoot detectors," infrared sensors that we clicked the camera. We hear bigfoot- tunately, was not able to join us, but she beep if the signature of a person or a steps. FIND BF ttacks. Hear roars, wails, was kind enough to loan me her Jeep. large animal is seen. The detectors were screams, some as close as fifty ft. Hear When the time came to depart, silent until he went out to turn them off heavy breathing outside tents. Have Beckjord was hours late for our initial the next morning. strange shape-shifting 'humans' come by rendezvous. Indeed, all his planning for With the help of daylight, we easily camp," he claims on his Web site at the big Bigfoot expedition seemed at located Bigfoot's paranormal "window http://www.beckjord.com/ best haphazard. Driving up to the site" (Beckjord doesn't want me to dis­ bigfoot. mountains, we had to make frequent close the exact location, lest "evil people" If this doesn't sound like die kind of stops for him to purchase items he go there and cause unspecified harm). encounter you'd expect to occur in didn't bother to get in advance. By the Finding the road leading into the site in Bigfoot country, it is because Beckjord, time we finally reached the entrance of even worse shape this year than before, unlike many Bigfoot researchers, main­ the Bear River Reservoir area of the El we saw that it would obviously be acces­ tains that "Bigfoot is not as simple as you Dorado National Forest, darkness had sible only by four-wheel drive vehicles, think it is. Yes, it looks like an erect ape. overtaken us. Beckjord—who claimed to which seemed to rule out taking in It smells, sometimes, and it leaves have been to the Bigfoot "window area" Beckjord's 1978 Ford station wagon. tracks—sometimes. But it never so many times he could find it in his While we were studying the obstacles dies. ... Bigfoot then, seems to be an sleep—led us around dusty, unpaved between our vehicles and the site, we alien shape-shifting being that may pos­ Forest Service roads for an hour and a met a friendly fellow with a four-wheel sibly be able to slip into alternate dimen­ half before reaching a dead-end and drive truck, who offered to carry sions or worlds. We think" admitting that we had made some wrong Beckjord's equipment past the impass­ turns. We camped the first night right able stretch of road. Afterward, Beckjord Robert Sheaffers World Wide Web page for where we found ourselves. The sky was speculated in his e-mail Bigfoot newslet­ UFOs and other skeptical subjects is at clear and dark, the Milky Way spectacu­ ter that perhaps the helpful stranger was www.debunker.com. lar. We saw a brilliant reflection from an not at all what he appeared to be: "Son

20 November/December 1999 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER of a Good Samaritan MIB but in jeans. of the ordinary was seen, heard, felt, Bigfoot (or at least die shadow of one) Now, was he CIA, MIB, Mljeans, a detected, or smelled. This is not surpris­ on one of the Bigfoot trees across the shapeshifter, or a tulpa, complete with ing: the presence of skeptics is known to pond. Not that it would have mattered truck?" Apparently, these days have a serious dampening effect upon even if I were there, since the "evidence" shapeshifters have die capability to take manifestations of all things paranormal. was not seen until later, when die film on not only animate forms, but become Another factor hindering Bigfoot activ­ was developed. (My photos, on the other motor vehicles as well. ity was diat there were no women in the hand, show only bushes, trees, rocks, and We set up camp right at the shore of party, at least during the time I was leaves. Perhaps my imagination is insuf­ Bigfoot's pond, bypassing a more com­ there. If we saw anything at all even a lit­ ficiently developed to discover die para­ tle bit unusual, it might have been sev­ fortable camping site a hundred yards normal beings hiding within them.) eral rocks that, by a stretch of the imagi­ away at the other pond because Bigfoot Beckjord's Web site now announces nation (a big stretch), look like Bigfoot allegedly doesn't show up at that one. die return, "flushed widi victory," of faces or skulls, when the viewing angle Unfortunately, Bigfoot seems to have "The Great Sierra Bigfoot Expedition and the illumination was just right. chosen to make his home in a low-lying 1999." It proudly displays the photo of Beckjord attributes this to shape- the shape of "Bigfoot" straddling a split area with nearby brackish water, proba­ shifting tulpas that temporarily inhabit tree trunk (see http://www.beckjord. bly one of the most heavily mosquitocd die rocks and alter their appearance in an com/bigfoot/sierratrip.html) He also areas of the forest. This suggests the pos­ attempt to communicate; I attribute it to announced the "preliminary finding" sibility that Bigfoot, if he exists, may be the workings of an overzealous imagina­ that the "half-Bigfoot" allegedly pho­ a lower form of life. We looked all tion. tographed at the site in 1978 (apparently around the site, but didn't see or hear its lower half never materialized) "was much except flies and mosquitoes. Even Beckjord relates how, years before, he found to have been bridging a ten-foot animal life is sparse around there because persuaded a camera crew from CBS gap between two trees, resting on a dead there is so little food in the high-altitude News to spend two days at the site. two-inch branch!" The significance ol forest. Later, Beckjord decided not to Absolutely nothing unusual was heard or this finding is not explained. allow the road obstacles to deter him seen during this time (the crew dutifully from bringing his old station wagon to reported the search, nonetheless). But as As for me, I will do my best to con­ die site. He nearly made it over road soon as the crew had departed, "all hell tain my disappointment at not seeing holes, rocks, and streams until his car broke loose" and Bigfoot was heard to anything paranormal. Maybe the best was solidly captured by a huge mudhole. scream, move about, break branches, etc. way to do so would be to get a T-shirt Therefore it was not surprising that it I towed it out with the Jeep. made up: / went on the Great Sierra was only after I had left that Beckjord Beckjord had arranged with a group Bigfoot Expedition of 1999, and all 1 obtained what he claims is a photo of of psychics to help us see Bigfoot by pro­ found were mosquitoes. jecting their powers toward us one evening at 9:30 P.M. We were instructed to look for flashes of light on die hori­ STATEMENT OF OWNERSHIP, MANAGEMENT, AND CIRCULATION zon. The time came and went, but noth- (Required by 39 U.S.C. 3685) Date ol filing: September 23, 1999. Title: The SKEPTICAL INOUIBER. Frequency ol issue: Bi­ ing happened. monthly. Complete mailing address ol known office of publication: 3965 Rensch Road. Amhersl. Much of the supposed "Bigfoot evi­ Erie County. NY 14228-2713. P.O. Box 703. Amherst. Erie County. NY 14226-0703. Publisher: dence" at this site is photographic in CSICOP. Inc. (Committee lor the Scientific Investigation ol Claims ol the Paranormal), 3965 Rensch Road. Amherst. Erie County. NY 14228-2713. Editor: Kendrick Frazier. 944 Deer Drive nature. That is, even if you go there and NE. Albuquerque, NM 87122. Assistant Editor: Benjamin T. Radlord, P.O. Box 703. Buffalo, NY don't see anything, faint images of 14226-0703. Owner: CSICOP, Inc. (Committee lor the Scientific Investigation of Claims ol the Paranormal), 3965 Rensch Road. Amherst. Erie County. NY 14228-2713. P.O. Box 703. Bigfoot or odicr anomalous creatures Buffalo, Erie County. NY 14226-0703. Known bondholders, mortgagees, and other security allegedly turn up in die grain of photos holders: None. Aver no. copies each issue during preceding 12 months: A. Tolal no. copies (net you take. In previous years, a supposed press run) 54,827. B. Paid and/or requested circulation (1) Sales through dealers and carriers, street vendors and counter sales 18,189 (2) Mail subscriptions 32.054. C. Total paid and/or Bigfoot had been glimpsed in photos, requested circulation (sum of B(1l and [2]) 50,243 D. Free distribution by mail (samples, com­ preferring to lurk under certain trees. I plimentary, and other free) 817. E. Free distribution outside mail (by carrier or other means) 0. F. Total free distribution (sum of D and E) 817 G Total distribution (sum of C and F) 51.060. H- strolled around the pond to carefully Copies not distnbuted (1) Office use, left over, spoiled 3.767; (2) returns from news agents 0 examine the area under the Bigfoot trees. Total (sum ol G. H [1] and [2]) 54,827 Percent paid and/or requested circulation 93.1%. Actual Alas, no evidence of anomalous apes was no. copies ol single issue published nearest filing date: A. Tolal no. copies (net press run) 55.921 B. Paid and/Of requested circulation (1) Sales through dealers and carriers, street ven­ to be seen. We then climbed to die top dors and counter sales 29.481 (2) Mail subscriptions 29.552. C. Total paid and/or requested cir­ of die ridge on the odier side, where in culation (sum ol B(1l and [2]) 50.797. D. Free distnbution by mail (samples, complimentary, and previous years footprints and other "evi­ other free) 806. E. Free distribution oulside mail (by carrier or other means) 0. F. Total Iree dis­ tribution (sum of D and E) 806. G. Total distribution (sum of C and F) 51.603. H. Copies not dis­ dence" of Bigfoot activity had been seen. tnbuted (1) Office use, left over, spoiled 4.318; (2) returns from news agents 0. Total (sum ol G. Alas, die proof still eluded us. H [1] and (2)) 55,921. Percent paid and/or requested circulation 92.3%. During die whole four days I spent in the Bigfoot "window area," nothing out

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER November/December 1999 21 SPECIAL REPORT

Blooming 'Shroud' Claims News of pollen and plant-image findings on the Shroud of Turin are based on earlier, scientifically discredited research.

JOE NICKELL

ew claims that pollen grains atively few pollens. As it turned out, eyes and even Latin and Greek words, and floral images on the after Frei's tapes were examined follow­ such as "Jesus" and "Nazareth," that NShroud of Turin link it to pre- ing his death in 1983, they also had some researchers see—Rorschach-like— eighth-century Jerusalem were made very few pollens—although one bore a in the shroud's mottled stains. The floral August 2, 1999, by researchers at the In­ suspicious cluster on the "lead" (or images were reported by a psychiatrist ternational Botanical Congress in St. end), rather than on the portion that who has taken up image analysis and Louis. (Curiously, the paper that had been applied to the shroud. (See made other discredited claims about the sparked the news reports was not part of SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Summer 1994, shroud image. Even pro-shroud author the regular conference proceedings but pp. 379-385.) Ian Wilson, in his 1998 book The Blood was announced at a news conference at and the Shroud, felt compelled to state: the Missouri Botanical Gardens, which "While there can be absolutely no is publishing a book by the claims' doubting the sincerity of those who authors.) In fact, however, although the make these claims, the great danger of Congress provided a new opportunity to such arguments is that researchers may present pro-shroud assertions to the 'see' merely what their minds trick them news media, the claims are based on ear­ into thinking is there." lier, scientifically discredited data. Here is a brief review of some of the claims Blood that were reported uncritically by die The Associated Press reported claims Associated Press and other media that the shroud bears type AB blood sources. stains. Actually, two tests of dubious sci­ entific merit that purported to prove the Pollen "blood" genuine were not supported by It was alleged that pollen on the batteries of analyses conducted by inter­ shroud proved it came from Palestine, nationally known forensic serologists. but the source for the pollen was a Indeed the stains, which were unnatu­ freelance criminologist. Max Frei, who rally "picturelike" and suspiciously still- once pronounced the forged "Hitler red, were conclusively proved to be red Facial image on Shroud of Turin (as yielded by a photo­ ocher and vermilion tempera paint. Diaries" genuine. Frei's tape-lifted graphic negative). samples from the shroud were contro­ versial from the outset since similar Floral Images Oviedo Cloth samples taken by the Shroud of Turin Accompanying the unscientific pollen Uncritical reportage suggested the Research Project in 1978 had compar- evidence were claims that faint plant Shroud of Turin gained credibility by images have been "tentatively" identified being linked to another notorious Joe Nickell is author of Inquest on the on the shroud. These follow previous cloth, the Sudarium of Oviedo, which Shroud of Turin. "discoveries" of "Roman coins" over the some believe was the "napkin" that

22 November/December 1999 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER covered Jesus' face. Unfortunately like based on the evidence—absurd. The report to Pope Clement VII that an other "relics" of Jesus—some forty shroud cloth was radiocarbon dated to earlier bishop had discovered the forger shrouds, vials of his blood and tears, circa 1260-1390 by three separate. and that he had confessed. and other products of medieval relic- mongering—the Oviedo cloth is of questionable provenance. It has no his­ The source for the pollen was a freelance torical record prior to the eighth cen­ criminologist. Max Frei, who once pronounced tury and, in contrast to the shroud, lacks a facial image. The supposed the forged "Hitler Diaries" genuine. matching of bloodstains on the Turin and Oviedo cloths is but another exer­ highly respected laboratories. Claims Conclusion cise in wishful thinking. As to the that the carbon dating could be in error As in the past, claims that the Turin alleged matchup of pollens, once again due to "contamination" lack credibility cloth may be authentic are simply based the evidence comes from the question­ when it is realized that—in order to on "shroud science"—an approach that able tapes of Max Frei. have altered the date from the first cen­ begins with the desired answer. In con­ tury to the fourteenth—there would trast, genuine science demonstrates Dating have to be twice as much contamina­ emphatically that the shroud image is The assertion that blood and pollen tion (by weight) as there is cloth. In the work of a medieval artist and that matching prove the Shroud of Turin fact the radiocarbon date is consistent the cloth never held a body—let alone dates to at least the eighth century i with a fourteenth-century bishop's that of Jesus. • llir Wher»e Do We Don't Think About WherComee FromDo W:e •% • - c„meFrom> Pscudoscience... FOKN Aliens the pyramidstosurt' Without ""*' Skeptical Inquirer the magazine for science and reason

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SKEPTICAL INQUIRER November/December 1999 23 The Universe and Carl Sagan

Few people ever extolled the wonders of science with more eloquence or were as effective in defending reason and campaigning against pseudoscience as Carl Sagan. A polymath prodigy and visionary interdisciplinary scientist with lifelong passions for planetary astronomy, the origins of life, and seeking extraterrestrial intelligence, Sagan turned his early enthusiasms about UFOs to rigorous but open-minded skepticism. An excerpt from a new biography, Carl Sagan: A Life. KEAY DAVIDSON

ll his life, Carl Sagan was troubled by grand dichotomies—between reason and irrationalism, A between wonder and skepticism. The dichotomies clashed within him. He yearned to believe in marvelous things—in flying saucers, in Martians, in glistening civiliza­ tions across the Milky Way. Yet reason usually brought him back to Earth. Usually; not always. A visionary dreams of a better world than this one. He refuses to think that modern society and its trappings—money, marriage, children, a nine-to-five career, and seemingly blind obedience to a wav­ ing flag and an inscrutable God—are all that there is. Sagan was blinded, but not by these. He was blinded by the sheer glory of the new cosmos unveiled by science during the

24 November/December 1999 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER first two decades of his life. This cosmos was an ever-expanding, a generous man. For all the disappointments of his life—betrayed by unbounded wonderland of billions of galaxies. And across the light- a political ideology, revolted by Hitlerian perversion of the eugenic years, Sagan dreamed, random molecular jigglings had perhaps ideal—Muller dung to his socialist ethics, which cherished "ordinary" spawned creeping, crawling, thinking creatures on alien landscapes people, however unschooled and immature. bathed in the glow of alien suns. His kindness rubbed off on Sagan. Though later in life, after he This vision blinded Sagan, sometimes, to the needs of the people had become famous, Sagan struck many colleagues as arrogant, he around him. These included friends who worshipped him, although almost always displayed patience and good humor when addressing he hurt them; wives who were entranced by his passions, although laypeoplc. After Sagan's death, his friend Paul West published a novel. enraged by his absenteeism and oft illogical "logic"; sons who were Life with Swan (1999). that featured a blatantly Saganish character, enthralled by his example, even as they struggled to escape his one Professor Raoul Bunsen, who. West wrote, was "as willing to shadow; and colleagues who envied and honored him, even while answer stupid elementary questions as to formulate, almost as they scorned his wilder notions and mocked his pomposities. Hardly masochistic exercise, questions nobody could answer." A true science anyone who knew Sagan intimately popularizer must have a democratic has an unmixed opinion of him. In soul; he cannot afford to feel con­ the final analysis, he was the tempt for his audience. Otherwise, dichotomy: the prophet and the why bother popularizing? As Sagan's hardboilcd skeptic, the boyish fanta­ fame grew, he became accustomed to sist and the ultra-rigorous analyst, standing at a podium and listening as the warm companion and the an audience member stood and brusque colleague, the oracle whose A Life asked him a question about UFOs or smooth exterior concealed inner fis- CARL. astrology or other silliness. Then, typically, Sagan responded firmly but politely, trying to make the ques­ tioner feel intelligent, not like an ignoramus. Any other speaker might To Sagan, the rationale for his SAGAN have snapped, "That's the dumbest broader interests was simple: He thing 1 ever heard." But Muller refused to pigeonhole himself. He wouldn't have said that; nor did apparently sensed that the coming Sagan. space age would be radically interdis­ ciplinary: astronomers would have to talk to biologists and chemists and geologists and atmospheric physicists Carl Sagan rejected religion from an and many other experts whom they early age. In the early twentieth cen­ normally ignored. Hence he trained tury powerful forces of secularization himself in subjects unrelated to astro­ were sweeping through American physics—in particular, biology, Judaism (as through ail Western cul­ which was the topic closest to his first ture). The Holocaust caused some love, extraterrestrial life. Jews to reject God altogedicr: what Rare is the scientist with world- deity would have permitted such a class understanding of two broad dis­ horror? ciplines—say, astronomy and biol­ Sagan celebrated his bar mitzvah ogy. Sagan was one of the rare ones. at age thirteen. "But in exactly that The Hutchins program [at the period when I was sort of seriously University of Chicago gave him the reading the Bible," he recalled, "I confidence to straddle disciplines. He found all sorts of obvious contradic­ traced this confidence to a biology course in which, he recalled, "there tions with reality. [For example], two different, contradictory were only three topics. The first was enzyme chemistry; the second accounts of the origin of the world in Genesis. .. . That propelled me was diabetes; and the third was the physiological concomitants of the away" from religion. Previously, he had soured on Edgar Rice expression of emotions." True, this selection of biological science "was Burroughs's Mars novels because they contained logical inconsisten­ unrepresentative—no Darwin, no genetics!" Yet the class explored cies. Now he started looking for similar inconsistencies in the ancient those three topics so deeply—"we read diabetes papers published that texts that had given hope to billions. Were diey just old wives' tales? very year"—that he evidently concluded that he could understand He learned the Bible well. As an adult, debating preachers about reli­ any topic he wished, if he worked hard enough. Millions of readers gion, Sagan often stanied them with his ability to cite passages by would later enjoy the results: a hypcrpolymath conversant witft astro­ chapter and verse. physics, biology, neuroscience, primate communication, atmospheric physics, geopolitics, nuclear strategy.... Sagan was the multidiscipli- Sagan's religious doubts upset his mother Rachel. Despite her nary scholar par excellence, the "Renaissance man" so uncommon in flinty skepticism about most matters, she trusted in the unseen world. the age of specialization, of industrialized academia, where the divi­ Her faith gave her a sense of stability. Now her only son—her future sions of labor are as real as in Henry Ford's factories. Keay Davidson is a science reporter for the San Francisco Examiner. He is also a recipient of CSICOP's Responsibility in Journalism Award. This article is excerpted from Carl Sagan: A Life. Copyright ©1999 by Keay Why did an established scientist like H.J. Muller spend time with this Davidson. Excerpted with permission of the publisher John Wiley &Sons, impatient New Jersey teenager who had a short .mention span for Inc. This book is available at all bookstores, online booksellers, and from tedious research and was obsessed with UFOs and aliens? Muller was the Wiley Web site at www.wiley.com. or call 1-800-225-5945.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER November/December 1999 25 genius!—was rejecting the faith of his fathers? Their religious quar­ News media jumped on the story. The experiment delighted that rels, Sagan later admitted, were "traumatic" because for Rachel "there tough old Marxist, Haldane, who reportedly said he could "die happy were a lot of emotional, traditional connections" at stake. "There was now." Some reporters interpreted the experiment as a latter-day ver­ a time," he recalled, "when my mother and I would have, I guess, sion of the creation of the Frankenstein monster. Of course, Miller 'fights,' on this issue. It only lasted a year." Then Rachel realized it hadn't created life—only its molecular building blocks. Still, a 1953 was "hopeless" for her to try to change Sagan's mind, and they Gallup Poll asked Americans if they thought scientists would eventu­ stopped fighting. ally create living creatures in the laboratory. Seventy-nine percent Sagan's loss of faith intersected neatly with his growing fascination replied "No." with extraterrestrial life. He had rejected a supernatural explanation Miller described his results in a seminar at the University of of the origin of life (and everything else); therefore he needed to find Chicago, with Urey present. Sagan sat in the audience. During the a scientific one. A great deal was at stake: If life emerged easily by question period, Sagan later recalled, other professors didn't seem to mechanistic means on Earth, then it might be very common in the appreciate the importance of Miller's experiment, and his results were heavens; if it emerged with difficulty, then very rare. This stirred his "roundly condemned by nearly every faculty member that made a interest in the scientific study of the origin of life. Until the early comment." As he watched Urey try to defend Miller, and saw how 1950s, such study was almost nonexistent; there had been theoretical nervous Miller was and how heated the discussion got, Sagan realized papers published here and there, and a book or two, but not much for the first time just how emotionally intense research could be. else. While his teenage peers read Mickey Spillane and J.D. Salinger, Miller recalls the scene differently. Now in his late sixties, Sagan turned to physicist Erwin Schrodinger's What Is Life? (1946) bustling, bespectacled and ebullient, he remains active in origin-of- and chemist A.I. Oparin's Origin of Lift (written in the 1920s and lifc work at the University of California at San Diego. "What Carl published in English in 1938). didn't realize" Miller says, "was, it wasn't that they didn't understand the importance, it's just that they couldn't believe the results'" All . * r those amino acids! Thick coats of them! It seemed almost too easy. In late 1951, when Sagan entered the University of Chicago, another Almost a century after Pasteur claimed to shut the door for good on entrant was Stanley Miller, a twenty-one-year-old first-year graduate mechanistic explanations for life's origin, young Stanley Miller had student fresh from the University of California at Berkeley. That reopened it. autumn, Miller attended one of Harold Urey's lectures. The chemist * * • explained his theory that early Earth had a hydrogen atmosphere, in which the chemical building blocks of life could have easily formed. Sagan's persistent interest in life's origins was matched only by his per­ Perhaps (Urey noted) lightning bolts provided the energy that caused sistent interest in UFOs. At least as late as mid-1954, when he was a the early hydrogen-rich molecules, methane and ammonia, to assem­ college junior, he suspected they might be extraterrestrial vehicles, ble into organics. It'd be interesting, Urey added, if someone would and he tried to persuade Muller of this. The Nobelist countered (per­ demonstrate this experimentally—that is, by simulating the atmos­ haps tongue in cheek) by citing one "saucer" report that suggested phere of the primitive Earth in a flask. (Melvin Calvin of Berkeley UFOs were Soviet-built. Sagan replied, in a letter dated January 27, had tried to, but used the wrong atmosphere, one too rich in carbon 1954, that there was no reason to believe that all UFOs were of Soviet dioxide and water vapor.) making. In defense of his position, he pointed out that legitimate Miller was intrigued. He had been looking for a subject for his sightings had occurred much earlier than when the Soviets came to doctoral thesis, and this one sounded exciting. He approached Urey power. He also argued that the Soviets would not take the risk of fly­ and asked for permission to do the experiment. Urey reacted cau­ ing their saucers over U.S. territory, where many sightings had hap­ tiously, warning Miller that this was a risky project for a dissertation. pened, because if one crashed or was shot down and its origin was dis­ But Miller persisted, and Urey finally went along—on one condition. covered, that might start a war. In addition, some of the saucers had If Miller railed to obtain interesting results within a year, then he had been observed making flying maneuvers that would require materials to find a different thesis topic. Miller agreed. much stronger than anything on Earth and which a human being would not be able to survive. In Miller's experiment, carbon (C) was available from methane (CH4), nitrogen (N) from ammonia (NH>). oxygen (O) from water That letter was Sagan's last known defense of UFOs. Thereafter, (HiO), and hydrogen (H) from all diree. An electrical discharge his faith was shaken by two books—Fads and Fallacies in the Name of would break die molecules apart, possibly causing them to rearrange Science (1952) by Martin Gardner (another University of Chicago into organics. graduate, and later the mathematics editor of Scientific American) and About this time, H.J. Muller had written a letter to Urey, his fellow Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds (1841) by Nobelist, and urged him to meet Sagan. They did meet, and during Charles Mackay. their chat Urey mentioned Miller's experiment. Intrigued, Sagan visited Fads and Fallacies was a founding tract of the modern "skeptics" Miller in his dungeon-like basement lab. In die "dungeon," Miller movement. Breezily and wittily, Gardner details the pseudoscientific filled a flask wiuS methane, ammonia and water. Miller then switched beliefs of anti-Einstein theorists, pyramidologists, medical quacks, on die "sparking" device and left for the night. The next morning psychic researchers, "orgone" therapists, L. Ron Hubbard (founder of Miller examined die flask: The water within had turned "noticeably Dianetics and its far more profitable descendant, Scientology), and pink." Inside were hydrocarbons—chains of carbon and hydrogen crank cosmologist Immanuel Velikovsky, among others. While enjoy­ atoms. He let the sparking device run for another two days. The result: ing Gardner's account, Sagan was startled to find that it included a a scummy layer that, upon analysis, proved to contain an amino acid devastating chapter on UFOs. called glycine. Finally Miller let the experiment spark for a week, after Mackay's book didn't deal with UFOs—it was written a century which he found many more types of amino acids, including unknown before the saucer craze. Still, Sagan drew major lessons from Mackay's types. This was a startling result. Previously, skeptics had argued that accounts of the repeated instances in which humans have been gulled the building blocks of life could no more self-assemble into complex by false notions, ranging from get-rich-quick schemes to fortune organics than a windstorm could turn a forest into wooden homes. Yet telling. Gradually, Sagan began to recognize what flying saucers really that is cxacdy what Miller appeared to have done, in an experiment are: not a physical phenomenon, but a psychological and a sociolog­ mimicking presumed conditions on the primordial Earth. ical one. "It was stunning," Sagan later reflected, "how many pas-

26 November/December 1999 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER sionately argued and defended claims to knowledge had amounted to interest scholars who study how scientific ideas evolve. In recent nothing. It slowly dawned on me that, human fallibility being what decades, many historians and philosophers of science have claimed it is, there might be other explanations for flying saucers." that scientific "objectivity" is a myth. They argue that scientists—like In time, Sagan would become a devastatingly effective critic of the most of us—follow their hearts, not their minds; their desires, not die UFO cult—indeed, of die flood of pseudoscience and superstition data. And this is certainly true, much of the time. Still, when it came engulfing America in the second half of the twentieth century. to the nature of Martian surface change, Sagan followed his mind, not his heart.

At Harvard, Sagan would become a nationally known scientific fig­ ure—not famous, exactly, but getting diere. With James Pollack, he During Sagan's first decade at Cornell, he would show up all the would study the atmosphere and surface changes of Mars and pro­ snobs and green-eyed detractors at Harvard. He became the preemi­ pose a radical new view of dieir nature. They would also elaborate nent voice of American space science, a national (later international) and defend Sagan's embattled theory of the Venusian greenhouse celebrity visible enough to attract his first nonscientific critics. effect. In time, these two men—with remarkably similar back­ Meanwhile, he continued doing science as he liked to do it: by flit­ grounds, yet remarkably different personalities—would be one of the ting, buttcrflylikc, from flower to flower. Not for him was the life of great "duos" of modern space science. the pigeon-holed academic who becomes a world-class expert on T- Also in the mid-1960s, the mass media began exploiting Sagan. Tauri stars but knows nothing about the Big Bang. Nor for him was He was not a complete unknown to journalists; his name had the stoic seclusion of die scholar, who takes bitter pride in refusing to appeared in national newspapers and magazines at least as far back as popularize his life's toil on the reproductive strategics of carp. Sagan 1956, late in the first term of die liked talking to reporters. He had Eisenhower Administration. He liked being on stage, in the spot­ had even appeared on a television light, ever since high school, when broadcast about Venus, where he he delivered Thurber's bons mots to impressed viewers with his dualistic an audience of proud parents. lecturing style: darkly serious, con­ True, Sagan worked too hard. He tagiously enthusiastic. But his real did too much. His scientific accom­ publicity breakthrough came in plishments might have been less 1966. with the publication of his arguable had he restricted himself to book Intelligent Life in the Universe one or two main fields and dili­ (coauthorcd with the Russian gently plowed them until it was time astronomer I.S. Shklovskii). About to abandon all hope and become this time, Sagan served briefly as an chair of the department. He bit off adviser on the film 2001. Dining more than he could chew—and thus with the film's creators, he acquired enjoyed one wonderful banquet his first taste of Hollywood. after another, while his colleagues Simultaneously, he rediscovered picked at their beets and parsley. In an old love: UFOs. In 1965-66, a the process, Sagan befriended many wave of UFO sightings swept the fascinating fellow diners. His scien­ nation. The resulting media tific lone-wolf days (for example, hoopla sparked congressional when he taught himself greenhouse and scientific investigations. theory) were over. Increasingly, he relied on collaborations, usually Reporters called Sagan for Carl Sagan and his son Nick. (Courtesy of Nick Sagan) the scoop on saucers. A Walter transient ones. The results were some­ times scientifically significant, or at least headline-grabbing. They Cronkite television special on UFOs included a clip of Sagan, a ranged from his work with George Mullen on the role of ammonia in dulcet-toned oracle of scientific wisdom. He offered journalists an the early atmosphere to his Astrophysical Journal article with E. E. amiably skeptical stance on UFOs—an engaging alternative to die Saltpeter on the hypothetical "balloon animals" of Jupiter. He main­ harrumphy finger-wagging of astronomer Donald Menzel, the era's tained close collaborations with a chosen few, particularly Jim Pollack only other well-known saucer skeptic. (By that time J. Allen Hynek and Bishun Khare. With Pollack, Sagan would erect an impressive had ceased to be very skeptical!) edifice of research on the Venusian atmosphere. And with Khare. he would develop an iconoclastic view of cosmic organic chemistry, one centered on inexplicable brownish smears that he dubbed "tholins." When it came to extraterrestrial life, Sagan didn't follow a dogmatic Also in the 1968-78 decade, Sagan cultivated his nonscicntific "party line." Sometimes he argued that it was possible (as when he side. He had just married an artist; she helped him tap his inner feel­ espoused lunar life, balloon animals in the skies of Venus and Jupiter, ings, instincts, intuitions. Though he felt awkward in social situations and polar bear-sized creatures on Mars). Other times he shot down at Harvard, his social skills blossomed after he moved to Cornell. arguments for exobiology (as when he showed that Venus is too hot Perhaps in this less stuffy setting, he felt free to let his idiosyncratic conversational style out of the box. Eventually, he would become a for life). An example of the latter is his explanation for the Martian Noel Coward of science, a man for whom bold articulation and "wave of darkening." Until the mid-1960s, many astronomers quickness of wit were absolute virtues. His eyes shone as he domi­ regarded the wave of darkening as evidence for Martian vegetation nated a conversation, and deservedly so, for he typically knew more change. Yet Sagan and Pollack discovered its true nature, which was about the topic at hand—and discussed it more suavely—than any­ nor/biological. It's ironic: Sagan blew away the last indirect evidence one else present. At the same time, he listened as well as he talked. for Martian life even as he struggled to convince Americans to sup­ During intense conversation, his dark eyes gazed at you as if you were port Mars missions. He was a complicated man. The Sagan-Pollack dieory of Mars surface changes should also

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER November/December 1999 27 the sole other sentience in the cosmos. If you anxiously described the them to medical examinations. sorry state of your own research, he generously offered tips and sug­ Sagan spent a "fair amount of time" with the Hills and Simon. gestions—often crazy ones, but occasionally brilliant ones, too. The psychiatrist suspected that the Hills' story was an innocent dual History does not record how many intellectual Gordian knots were hallucination, perhaps related to the stresses of their marriage, which cut by Sagan's razor-sharp tongue at wine and cheese faculty gather­ was interracial—an extreme novelty at that time. (Decades later, ings; dicrc were more than a few. And he remembered what you said Sagan was baffled to watch as his Harvard friend Dr. John Mack, a with almost photographic precision; months later, he recalled your noted psychiatrist and author, became a leading defender of the valid­ statements as accurately as if he had tape-recorded them. When he ity of UFO abduction claims.) In the mid-1960s, at least one entered a room, the conversational level noticeably improved, as it respectable American scientist, James McDonald, a professor of must have in Oscar Wilde's day when he sauntered into a salon. atmospheric physics at the University of Arizona, claimed that UFOs were alien spaceships. McDonald met with Sagan and his fellow Through conferences jammed with colleagues Sagan floated, beam­ member of the Order of the Dolphin (a SETI group), MIT physicist ing and chatting and joking; he was a six-foot-two gravity well toward Phil Morrison. "I spent many hours with Jim McDonald," Sagan whom everyone naturally gravitated. He was fun. "Hey, Carl is here!" later wrote to UFO investigator Walter N. Webb, adding that he saw It would be an overstatement to say that everyone loved him, for his no reason to believe that there were any sightings that were credible bluntness upset many and his talent many more; in any case, he rarely evidence of extraterrestrial visits. failed to cause excitement. Sagan flexed his new-found artistic muscles in his breakthrough McDonald's data was "pitiful," Morrison recalls. McDonald bestseller. The Cosmic Connection. He became a TV star, the upbeat showed them "pounds and pounds" of data, including news clippings educator of sleepy-eyed millions viewing the Tonight Show. During and tape recordings, about a UFO sighting on Long Island. The wit­ the Viking mission, he was die TV networks' favorite "talking head," ness—a naval architect—drew a sketch of the "saucer." One thing whose playful speculations about an inhabited Mars maddened his puzzled Sagan and Morrison: the saucer had rivets on its side. "Are we colleagues but titillated viewers. And like a performance artist with a really to believe this?" they asked McDonald. "Look at the rivets that NASA-sized budget, he engaged in grand forms of self-expression: he cross the plates here. Do you suppose [aliens] use rivets? Don't you sent "messages" to aliens aboard star-bound space probes, the Pioneers think (the witness] is drawing on his long experience in the Navy 10 and // and the Voyagers J and 2. yard?" In retrospect. Morrison says of McDonald, "it was distressing that a serious scientist, a good man, would get involved in such • * » research." Like Brian O'Leary, John Lilly, Timothy Leary, J. Allen Hynek and a few other renegade scientists of the 1960s and 1970s, Sagan was a contradiction. To critics like Urey, the young astronomer McDonald had heard the siren call of the unknown and would pur­ was a reckless speculator. But to laypeople absorbed by pseudo- sue it to the end—in his case, to suicide. sciences and occultism, Sagan was the Dark Prince of skepticism— the party pooper who coldly shot down their ideas about UFOs, psy­ » * « chic phenomena, and other silliness. By the 1960s, Sagan had long since rejected the diesis that UFOs There are celebrities, and then there are Celebrities. Before the are extraterrestrial spaceships. Yet he could not quite put the subject Tonight Show, Sagan was slightly known to a small percentage of out of his mind. Like a disappointed lover, he continued to hang Americans who had caught his sound bites on TV or read Intelligent around this subject. He discussed it with reporters, testified about Life in the Universe. After die Tonight Show, he became America's best- saucers before Congress, served on an Air Force UFO panel, person­ known scientist. Sitting in bed at 12:45 A.M., insomniacs watched ally investigated lurid UFO reports, and starred in the first scientific Sagan with growing excitement. This was no tweedy Mr. Science, fill­ "debate" on die subject. Sentimental journeys, all. ing beakers with smelly chemicals on a black-and-white TV image Sagan served on an Air Force UFO advisory panel, the O'Brien from the 1950s. Rather, this was a Mr. Science for the hip, disillu­ committee. The committee (named for its chief, scientist Brian sioned early 1970s, a boy-man with a startling basso profundo voice, O'Brien) evaluated the Air Force's official saucer project. Blue Book. one who kept his cool yet laughed merrily (sometimes at a startling Although depicted in a subsequent TV series as an expensive, com­ high pitch). Sagan was, simply speaking, sexy, in a sense that tran­ puterized outfit. Blue Book was in fact a backwater operation, with a scends mere sexuality. few staffers and filing cabinets crammed into an office at Wright- The young went on alert. Until that moment, the space program Patterson Air Force Base. Blue Book was primarily for show. The Air offered no convincing heroes for disaffected, anti-establishment, Force had not taken UFOs seriously for years but felt it had to keep long-haired, pot-smoking college students. To them, astronauts were up appearances to deal with inquiries from UFO-titillated members cornball patriots in crewcuts, blood brothers of the militarists then of Congress and their constituents. If UFOs represented an unknown napalming Vietnam. But Sagan was different: he was youthful-look­ physical phenomenon. Blue Book would never figure it out. So Sagan ing (like die class president, but in a fun way). Perhaps he was a secret and the rest of the O'Brien committee advised the Air Force to com­ would-be hipster—the kind of guy who, if handed a joint, might look mission an independent, full-scale scientific study. The result was the surprised, then accept it with a laugh and politely try it, coughing controversial Condon Commission, chaired by noted physicist E.U. afterwards. (In fact, he was secretly an enthusiastic smoker of mari­ Condon. juana.) In college dorms from coast to coast, students (like this writer) didn't stay up until 1:00 A.M. to watch Dinah Shore plug her golf Meanwhile, Sagan conducted private investigations of the UFO tournament. They stayed up to see Carl Sagan. mania. In 1966, the first UFO "abduction" was described in journal­ ist John G. Fuller's book The Interrupted Journey. Fuller (who also On Sagan's first appearance—November 30, 1973—he and wrote about "ghosts" seen on airplanes) said that one night in the Carson discussed what we might want to say to an alien civilization if early 1960s, when Betty and Barney Hill were driving through New we ever did contact one, and also the far-out pseudoscientific dieorics Hampshire, they noticed a distant UFO. The next thing they knew, of writer Erich Von Daniken, who had been on the show the several hours had passed and they couldn't recall what had happened. previous night. Carson and Sagan were perfect together Carson bub­ They consulted a Boston psychiatrist. Dr. Benjamin Simon. He hyp­ bled widi enthusiastic questions, and Sagan had all the answers. notized them. Under hypnosis, they claimed that UFOnauts had Over die next diirteen years, Sagan appeared on the Carson show stopped their car and taken them aboard a saucer, then subjected twenty-six times—an average of twice a year. He once explained why

28 November/December 1999 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER he made every effort to fulfill an invitation to appear on the show— some technical errors) to be correct. Copernicus's heliocentric because it gave him the biggest classroom in the country. hypothesis is one example; anodier is Alfred Wegener's concept of continental drift. In both cases, physics was modified to accommo­ date the heretical idea. In Other Worlds, Sagan lit into pseudoscientists such as Erich Von Velikovskv's theories, however, do not even fall into the category Daniken, whom he had criticized before, and Immanuel Velikovsky. of science. Archaeologists and ancient historians have totally repudi­ Von Daniken wanted to rewrite the history of humanity: He claimed ated his interpretations of ancient records. Even if the records backed that aliens were responsible for the pyramids and otJier historic arti­ him, his predictions and calculations are not of the rigor that true sci­ facts. Velikovsky was even more ambitious: he wanted to rewrite tlie ence requires. history of the whole solar system. How does one distinguish a bona fide scientific hypothesis from In 1950, Velikovsky had published a sensational book, Worlds in a pseudoscientific one? The classic response is that of philosopher Collision. It argued that thousands of years ago, Venus was a comet. Karl Popper, that no hypothesis can be considered "scientific" This comet was somehow ejected from Jupiter, as a tennis ball is shot (which is not necessarily the same thing as saying it is "true") unless from an ejector. After its ejection, Venus then barreled around the it generates predictions that are conceivably disprovable ("falsifi- inner solar system like the ball in a pinball machine. It careened past ablc," in Popper's term). Earth, triggering apocalyptic Velikovsky's work raises events and inspiring scary two key questions: Were his legends of doom, disaster, original hypotheses conceiv­ locusts, and so forth. While ably falsifiable? And have Moses was leading his peo­ they subsequently been falsi­ ple out of Egypt, Velikovsky fied or verified by astronom­ asserted, the comet flew by ical observations? If falsifi­ and exerted mysterious able but verified, then our forces on Earth, with the knowledge of astrophysics result that the Red Sea must be seriously incom­ parted. Eventually—like plete. If not falsifiable, we teenage hoodlums in the B- can confidently toss his movics of that era—Venus notions into the historical calmed down and settled wastebin along with dusty into its present middle-class, tracts on phrenology, spiritu­ predictable orbit. alism, sea monsters and other flummery. Velikovsky based his hypothesis on ancient man­ A hallmark of pseudosci- uscripts and legends that, he entific hypotheses is their said, recorded these apoca­ Sagan and Immanuel Velikovsky debating in San Francisco. April 1974. (Courtesy of Dale P. vagueness and malleability: lyptic events. He claimed Cruikshank) their proponents always that very old astronomical manage to diink up ad hoc records did not mention the planet Venus—and naturally not, ideas to "explain away" discrepant data (for example, me "Mars face" because Jupiter hadn't ejected it yet! He also insisted that his hypoth­ enthusiast who claims NASA hides photos of the "face," the parapsy- esis predicted certain celestial phenomena, including the great heat chologist who blames negative results on "bad vibes" from skeptical of Venus (a result of its violent ejection from Jupiter), which had observers, and so forth). Occasionally ad hoc explanations turn out to been observed by Mariner 2. Velikovsky's claims led to his showdown be correct, but the burden of proving them must rest on their propo­ with Sagan, who, of course, had his own ideas about the Venusian nents. Orthodox scientists are simply too busy wrestling with hothouse. acknowledged mysteries to waste time chasing will-o'-the-wisps (espe­ cially those proposed by scientific ignoramuses that brazenly trans­ Worlds in Collision blatantly violated the laws of physics. gress well-established scientific principles). Yet Velikovsky—despite Although Velikovsky had certain scholarly credentials (he was a his obvious ignorance of physics—angrily insisted that the burden of Russian-born psychoanalyst), he "had only die vaguest understand­ proof lay on his critics. It was not his job to prove his theory; it was ing of such basic physical principles as conservation of angular their job to disprove him. momentum, gravity, and entropy," wrote the physicist Lloyd Motz, who was on friendly terms with him. Velikovsky described celestial Velikovsky and his reverential fans presented Sagan with a chal­ objects behaving in ways that they simply cannot behave—unless lenge that, in his newly emerging role as defender of the scientific something is terribly wrong with modem physics textbooks. For faith, he simply could not refuse. Sagan decided to combat Velikovsky example, Motz noted, to expel Venus, Jupiter would have had to in something of a scientific duel—a public debate in which "release or expend in a matter of seconds or minutes as much energy Velikovsky could make his case, while a panel of scientists, Sagan as our Sun emits in more than a year." Such an eruption would have included, could critique them. expelled enough energy in those few seconds to have vaporized most This was a radically different way to confront pseudoscience. of the planets, including Earth. True, die UFO symposium at the AAAS symposium of 1969 had pit­ When physicists cited these huge discrepancies between ted UFO advocates against detractors, but all were bona fide physical Velikovsky's hypothesis and physics doctrine, he shrugged and replied scientists. Velikovsky, by contrast, had no significant training in the that his historical research showed that celestial objects behave in pre­ physical sciences; his books implied that the "expertise" of his critics viously unknown ways, and that tficreforc it was physics that would was a sham, that his historical scholarship was just as valid a source of have to change to accommodate his findings. Throughout history, of knowledge about the natural world as their professional training in course, scientists have proposed radical new theories that violated the physics and astronomy. In other words, die Sagan versus Velikovsky commonsense physics of their time, yet proved (on the whole, despite debate promised to be a particularly extreme form of "turf battle"—a

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER November/December 1999 29 fight over who deserves recognition as an "authority" in a given sub­ great heat long before the Mariner 2 space probe flew by the planet ject. The history of science is full of such turf battles; they often in 1962 and gathered data to that effect. The trouble with this claim decide the fate of fundamental ideas. is multifold. First, Sagan pointed out, Velikovsky never defined pre­ The Velikovsky debate certainly differed from the usual old- cisely what he meant by "heat." To say Venus is "hot" is like saying fashioned scientific responses to pseudoscience: ignore it or suppress the Sun is "big." How hot? A specific temperature is not needed—just it. Sagan—a fierce devotee of free speech—believed that astronomer a range will do: say, 600 to 800 degrees Kelvin? Yet Velikovsky never Harlow Shapleys boycott of Velikovsky's initial publisher had been provided this. Second, Sagan highlighted, Velikovsky never provided unjustified. The AAAS public debate would constitute, in effect, an a convincing explanation of why Venus would be hot. He implied it apology to Velikovsky, giving him the opportunity to submit ideas to was because of the heat experienced by Venus on being ejected from Jupiter, although (as Motz previously explained) in fact this would direct scientific scrutiny. The debates ultimate goal was not to reassess have vaporized it instead. Finally, such a prediction is of questionable Velikovsky's ideas (hardly any scientist took these seriously) but, meaningfulness, Sagan argued. People before Velikovsky had known rather, to reassure the public of science's basic fairmindedness, at a that Venus is hot, partly based on its closeness to the Sun and partly time when a growing number of leftists and academics were depict­ on its atmosphere (Rupert Wildt's 1940 suggestion of a greenhouse- ing it as intellectual camouflage for ideological and social prejudices. driven high surface temperature). So Velikovsky's "prediction" was » » • not a true prediction—not even a lucky guess. His overall theory was so maddeningly vague, Sagan concluded, that it was impossible to use Some AAAS members, of course, opposed holding the debate. it to make any meaningful predictions at all. Hence Velikovsky's the­ "Certain powers in the AAAS didn't want the symposium to hap­ ory was classic pseudoscience. pen," recalls Sagan's friend Don Goldsmith, an astronomer who helped organize the debate. "They felt, 'We've had enough bullshit Opinions of Sagan's performance vary. Staff writer Robert Gillette from this guy [Velikovsky]. AAAS is for science, this is non-sci­ of Science magazine later described Sagan as "Velikovsky's bete noire ence.'" However, the AAAS president at the time, Margaret Mead, . . . An articulate man widi a switchblade wit. ..." A reporter from thought the symposium would be worthwhile. She was an anthro­ Science News, however, observed: "Sagan's 56 pages of criticism would pologist famous for her affectionate studies of non-Western culture, ordinarily be sufficient to lay to rest for all time such a picked-apart and she apparently viewed the pseudosciences as many social scien­ theory, but Velikovsky's supporters are not easily dissuaded, and the tists do—as generally harmless alternative perceptions of reality, controversy is sure to continue." In fact, Sagan's speech trounced which should be tolerated (if not accepted) as one might tolerate, Velikovsky. Nowadays, die pseudoscientific psychoanalyst is largely say, Azande cosmology or Eskimo marriage rituals. Besides, Mead forgotten, save by a handful of devotees who haunt die World Wide was quietly interested in fringe science. In 1969 she had pushed the Web. Sagan remains their leading bete noire. AAAS to accept the Parapsychological Association as an institu­ » » • tional member; late in life, she served on the board of J. Allen Hynek's Center for UFO Studies. Says Goldsmith: "Whereas phys­ Was Sagan's campaign against the forces of pseudoscience really worth ical scientists thought, 'why should we give this bullshit a hearing?', his time? After all. Von Daniken and Velikovsky were just the latest Margaret Mead was of the anthropological bent. . . . She felt this variations on old themes. Pseudoscientific and occult ideas are as old might be interesting whether it's true or not." as the hills. Yet in die 1970s, their growing popularity—coincident with the rise of various cults (from the silly "pyramid power" to the The symposium was held on February 25, 1974, in the Grand scary Scientology) and the decline of student interest in science— Ballroom of San Francisco's St. Francis Hotel. Thete were seven alarmed many. In response, philosophy professor Paul Kurtz, a con­ speakers, two of diem pro-Velikovsky—Velikovsky himself and the troversial figure within the American Humanist Association, formed Illinois scientist Irving Michelson. (There were only these because no the Committee for die Scientific Investigation of Claims of the other pro-Velikovsky scientists could be found.) The room was Paranormal (CSICOP, pronounced "sigh-cop"), widi die goal of chal­ packed. As Don Goldsmith recalled, "It is hard to outdo die specta­ lenging the intellectual merits of pseudoscientific and occult notions. cle of a seventy-seven-year-old gentleman rising to confront the crit­ ics who had rejected him for scores of years, with his supporters in the Sagan was a founding member of CSICOP. Certainly he was audience cheering his wit and hissing at his opponents, while his attracted to die skeptics movement by his scorn for pseudoscience, detractors sat applauding and protesting in opposite phase." and by his desire to educate the public about real science. He might also, however, have joined the skeptics movement partly to reassure The astronomer Dale Cruikshank attended the debate to see what his colleagues—die Donald Menzel types who suspected his loyalty to he calls die "clash of the titans"—Sagan versus Velikovsky. And orthodox science—diat he really was a loyal (if highly speculative) indeed it was Sagan who dominated on the anti-Velikovsky side. "I'm member of die epistemological mainstream, and not a budding Lilly not sure who won on die arrogance side, but they wen: both in top or Hynek about to saunter off to fairyland. form," Cruikshank recalls wryly. Velikovsky "was an elderly man, tall and slender, big head of gray hair, and he sort of swept in widi two At die same time, Sagan would always feel ambivalence about cer­ or three people in his entourage, each of them carrying a big bundle tain elements of the skeptics movement. Some of its members were of papers. And whenever he would snap his fingers somebody would too fanatical, too lacking in "compassion" (as Sagan complained) for run up widi another document to support the point he had just those deluded by foolish ideas. He refused to sign astronomer Bart made." During his address, Velikovsky presented die full set of his so- Bok's anti-astrology petition because, in Sagan's view, its tone was too called "predictions" and then declared defiandy that "Nobody can authoritarian; in an age when die public increasingly distrusted change a single sentence in my books." His supporters in the audi­ "experts," astrology buffs would not be converted to reason by an elit­ ence stood and applauded. ist-sounding petition signed by a band of astronomers. More subde means were required to combat pseudoscience. One must not talk to Sagan was coolly composed by comparison. In die view of many the people as if they are children babbling about Santa Glaus; they present, his talk was a blend of intense analysis and amiable wit, widi must be educated, patiently and respectfully so. And for that educa­ imaginative arguments so compelling that they seemed unanswerable. tional mission, Carl Sagan was ideally suited. One of his key points was that Velikovsky's most heralded "predic­ tion," that Venus was hot, was not a prediction in any meaningful • • * sense of die word. Velikovsky claimed diat he had anticipated Venus's The Cosmos television series is the achievement that finally fixed

30 November/December 1999 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER Carl Sagan's place in the celebrity firmament. With assistance from SETI program was privatized and has since survived with support from Ann Druyan and a team of others, Sagan told the saga of our uni­ Silicon Valley industrialists and otber sugar daddies. Based at the SET! verse —"all that is, ever has been and ever will be." The thirteen- Institute in a tree-shaded office park in Mountain View, California, die part series was eventually seen by more than four hundred million search is conducted under the name Project Phoenix—after die myth­ people and became a spectacularly successful book (still in print ical bird tli.n ascended ftom its own ashes. today). It inspired countless teenagers to consider science careers. It was the same scenario that Carl had envisioned in his book Most significantly for Sagan, Cosmos gave him the celebrity status Contact, where Ellie Arroway, abandoned by a federal scientific that later allowed him to challenge the revival of cold war mili­ agency, seeks support for her SETI project from a private donor. tarism, which he and many others believed threatened terrestrial The whole episode illustrated one of Carl's oldest fears—that poor life. The series was the climax of his ascent into fame, even into science education would create a society unable to distinguish iconic status in American culture. From the broadcast of the series between scientific exploration and pscudoscientific flummery. on, his face was immediately recognizable to the generations of Americans who huddled in their living rooms raptly glued to their TV sets for each episode. What is a visionary? Carl Sagan measured time in cons and space in With Sagan's striking, strangely halting and melodic voice and his light-years; he maintained an interplanetary perspective. To such a emphatic gestures, he was the perfect scientific sage on screen, the person, the petty bigotries and tyrannies of terrestrial life are entrancing visionary who could reveal the marvels of the universe, provincialism in the extreme, utterly absurd. That was the core from the smallest grain of sand to the most distant stars. One jour­ theme of another book, Pale Blue Dot. Ours is one planet in a vast nalist who wrote about the scries described his unusual appeal by cosmos—who are we to subdivide it into the privileged and the commenting that Sagan's "face combines hauteur, sensuality, and a oppressed? "He took science so seriously, so deeply to heart," Ann winning boyishness—a pleasing amalgam of Rudolph Nureyev and Druyan says, "he understood the human species to be precisely George Plimpton." what it is—part of the fabric of nature, obviously related to the non-human primates in ways that were very striking. So to him racism was completely appalling. And sexism, too. Since there was no scientific basis for any kind of inferiority for women or non- The bad news started coming in batches. NASA's SETI project did white people, he couldn't bear it. .. . not long survive the Cold Wan its sudden death—only months after its birth—unhappily vindicated one of Carl's oldest worries: that the "That was true in our relationship, personally, in terms of public's inability to distinguish between UFO claptrap and SETI sci­ arguments we would have," says Druyan. "[There were] ence would doom the latter. no arguments 'from authority,' no 'Because I say so' or In early 1993, Senator Richard Bryan, a Republican from Nevada, 'Because I want it this way.' He was really concerned stood on the floor of the Senate and asked his colleagues to kill SETI. about the truth. So you had a sense that not only would every Showing no ability to distinguish between SETI and UFO-chasing, problem ultimately be solved— because it was a process of getting he referred to SETI as a "great Martian hunt." The Senate went along; at the truth—but that this guy wanted to keep on all SETI funding was ended. growing for die rest of his life! He didn't want to settle for After it all ended, SETI scientist Jill Tarter flew home, crushed. "I the boring rituals and repetitions that most people arc happy literally asked my husband to stay around over the weekend and not go with. For him what mattered was what was true, not what into his office and not leave me alone with any sharp objects," she would affirm his cherished belief. That's what the real dream recalls witii a laugh. "It was pretty grim. How could we have screwed of science is: not the universe is as I want it to be. to make myself up so badly? How could we have let this happen?" Fortunately, the less afraid of the vastness, but the universe as it really is."

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SKEPTICAL INQUIRER November/December 1999 31 The Millennium Thought Contagion Is Your Mental Software Year 2000 Compliant?

Thought contagions are belief that program for their own copying in humans much as computer viruses do in computers. Their self-spreading effect explains the techno-apocalyptic ideas swirling around the Y2K bug, including secular hell-doomsday ideas, logic-resistant strains of myth, and embedded rumors. Educating people about this can reduce the hazards of mass failures in "mental software." AARON LYNCH

f digital electronics had arrived 100 years earlier, then the multifarious hodgepodge of problems called Y2K I (Year 2000) would have gone by a completely different name, perhaps Y19C, Y1900, or even C-20. As a century rollover problem, it only strikes by coincidence at the dawn of a millennium. Yet we also have a "bug" that really does relate to the turn of 1,000 years. It does not lurk amid the transistors or databases, the ROM memories or old vacuum tubes. It inhabits the minds of human beings. It is not a problem with how our brains track time; it arises from a weakness in how we share information among each other. It is the millennium thought contagion.

32 November/December 1999 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER Thought contagions resemble computer viruses in one key effectively says, "Convert, and you will live." Meanwhile, those respect: they "program" for their own transmission. Such who know that prosaic life will continue generally feel beliefs self-propagate by inducing evangelism, abundant child unmoved to go forth and tell everyone about it. raising, and dropout prevention. Beliefs harnessing these The term TEOTWAWK1 helps secular and quasi-secular human functions most effectively out-propagate the "weaker" doomsayers distinguish their message from pure religion. In variants. Evolving like life forms through natural selection, some, the meme arouses fantasies of joining the few survivors thought contagions vie for ever-stronger influence in human to inherit the world. The selfishness of the appeal helps it lives. Numerous ideas about health, religion, sex, family life, spread. The TEOTWAWK1 idea also differs enough from ear­ investments, politics, and paranormal claims are affected. lier religious thought that adherents try to persuade people The similarities to biological replicators inspired zoologist ranging from atheists to Pentecostals. The wider base of "eligi­ Richard Dawkins to coin the word "meme," rhyming with ble" recipients helps the meme spread faster. "dream," to denote a gene-like or virus-like unit of culture.1 Although thought contagion theory does not depend on hav­ Spreading the Panic ing die word "meme," the word does serve as convenient Once someone acquires the Y2K "hell on Earth'" belief, the shorthand for items of brain-stored culture. An increasingly meme serves itself by deterring dropouts. Like the religious direat robust theory known as memetics can express this in mathe­ of fire and brimstone for those who renounce t.iith. the secular matical and symbolic terms without biological metaphors. belief threatens terrible things for those who "erroneously" However, it does not take equations to see that memes exert change rheir minds. These include visions of starvation, violence, major effects on information quality of society, in matters and death to oneself and loved ones. Such dropout ptevention ranging from astrology to doomsday beliefs.' helps the belief not only persist, but also spread. Persistent belief enjoys more copying than momentary belief. Millennial Panic When new listeners hear the "hell on Earth" warnings, the meme can manipulate their thinking toward accepting it. Like Millennial panic derives much of its contagion from a synergy religious hell memes, the Y2K hell memes imply vast suffering widi ideas about hell. The religious vision of hell has long moti­ for misplaced skepticism but little penalty for misplaced vated believers to spread their thoughts in order to save family credulity. Thus the memes of doomsday with hell on Earth and friends, making it a distinct thought contagion in its own achieve the three ingredients of major thought contagion: high right. The idea that "die end is near" implies that one must transmission rates, receptivity in potential converts, and per­ hurry up and spread the beliefs, so die combination spreads sistent belief in existing converts. faster. As die year 2000 approaches, a secular version of die hell- The doomsday belief is also more vivid and emotionally grip­ doomsday combination spreads die same way. This is the infec­ ping than the prosaic belief. When infected by a vivid, emo­ tious panic swirling around Y2K. Predictions that all sorts of tionally gripping meme, people have a hard time setting the vital systems will suffer unrecoverable and catastrophic failure thought aside. They keep thinking and talking about what it emanate from many sources. As widi religious belief, ideas of means to diem. So die vivid, gripping meme provokes more re­ "hell on Earth" spur die most retransmission efforts. Many, for tellings per week than does die prosaic, boring meme. If meme instance, have come to believe diat electricity, water, fuel, and A compels sixty minutes of thought per week, and meme B food supplies will collapse irreversibly. Airplanes will plunge compels just six minutes of thought per week, then this alone from the skies. Nuclear weapons will launch at die stroke of could cause up to ten times more tellings per week for meme A. midnight. And if the weapons don't fly, then financial chaos will The growth advantage is compounded weekly for a very fast still cause mass starvation and food riots. And so on. A January contagion. Like the effect that powers those vivid, gripping sto­ 1999 TIME/CNN poll found that 59 percent of Americans ries called urban legends, it adds to die contagiousness already were somewhat to very concerned about Y2K, while a remark­ caused by thinking diat "time is running out." ably high 9 percent were expecting "die end of the world as we Further dissemination comes from news writers, reporters, know it," or TEOTWAWKI in Y2K jargon.1 book authors, and movie producers who seek out vivid, grip­ Those accepting die direst predictions have a strong sense ping stories. Most of us already like telling exciting stories that time is running out, since they expect the catastrophe to instead of dull ones, because we crave the extra attention it start immediately after 1999. Survival dius depends upon brings. The only difference with media professionals is that evacuating urban centers, stockpiling food, drilling water diey earn cash for die attention they generate. Those who wells, and so forth. But one must first believe in die Y2K cata­ receive boring news tips or discover bland realities usually clysm to be saved. As with the religious End Times memes, the know better than to do a story on it. Radier, when they find secular strains naturally move believers to save friends and loved ones. So doomsday believers urgently spread the dire news of "what lies ahead" in January of 2000. Their extreme Aaron Lynch is author of the book Thought Contagion: How predictions spread widely when combined with American sur- Belief Spreads Through Society published by Basic Books in vivalist memes, which give detailed instructions for how to 1996. This article is adapted from a longer version on his Web save oneself. Like an evangelical religion, the meme package page at http:llunvw.thoughtcontagion.com.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER No»emb*r/Dec*mber 1999 33 alarming or sensational ideas, they know they have marketable though the banking system has done an excellent job of fixing material. As writers and reporters catch news memes from each Y2K problems. Those who expect a banking cataclysm spend other, the effect feeds on itself to produce escalating intensity more time thinking about it than those who expect banking as in everything from royalty scandals to urban legends. Serious usual. They may also feel motivated to spread their beliefs in topics like Y2K are often distorted in the process. order to get friends and loved ones to pull their money out. Yet Even those of us who conscientiously refrain from sensa­ the limited supply of currency in today's banking system will tionalizing stories can unwittingly impart extreme ideas about protect it even from self-fulfilling prophecy of bank runs. Long Y2K. It simply takes less time and effort to explain the worst before being forced into insolvency, the banks would run out of case Y2K situation than it does to explain why the worst case currency and pay all large withdrawals by cashier's check. But the only thing to do with a cashier's check is Y2K alarm dissemination comes from news writers, take it to another bank, so customers would stop making large withdrawals. Some peo­ reporters, book authors, and movie producers who ple could be inconvenienced by a tempo­ seek out vivid, gripping stories. Most of us already rary currency shortage, but the banking sys­ tem would survive. like telling exciting stories because we crave the Even institutions that publicize their attention it brings. The only difference with media Y2K fixes still face memetic problems. If a large bank, for instance, says it has brought professionals is that they earn cash for the its computers into compliance, some listen­ attention they generate. ers will doubt it. They'll say the bank is in denial, attempting a cover up, or engaging often docs not apply. It also takes more time to explain that in conspiracy. Others will sound the alarm unless they see many systems such as power plants, water filtration systems, overpriced "proofs" of compliance. These ideas are more and oil refineries can be reset to fake dates and operated even frightening and mentally gripping than bland expectations of if they do have date-sensitive software. This makes it easy to normal banking in 2000. So the cynical memes about the mislead people and listeners into thinking that everything dig­ bank spread quickly on open media such as the Internet. ital will fail unrecoverably at the stroke of midnight. The conspiratorial variants also resist logic. The information Many "embedded" thought contagions accompany the gen­ equivalent of multi-drug resistant bacteria, such memes prosper eral apocalypse meme, and arise for the same reason. For exam­ because there are few kinds of facts that could possibly "kill" ple, if someone concludes that Russian nuclear missiles will them. After all, trying to refute a conspiracy theory can get you launch at the stroke of midnight, he tends to keep thinking dismissed as either a victim or participant. So multirefutation- about it. Eventually, he may conclude that he must warn people resistant strains keep the banking apocalypse meme going strong, to get out of the cities and escape an imminent nuclear hell. His especially in those who already engage in conspiracy thinking. belief out-propagates the belief of someone who knows about Logic-resistant strains emerge for the overall apocalypse meme as the key role of silo operators in launching a missile. well, creating public challenges to more than just banks. Another "embedded" thought contagion is the idea that Refutation resistance also comes from regarding the non- civilization will end if the power grid goes down—an electric doomsayer as a Pollyanna. Those who learn to apply this word apocalypse. Even though societies have survived air wars that to anyone doubting the apocalypse can easily reject challenges devastated infrastructure, most of us today have not. This to their beliefs, and retain the belief and the sense of urgency leaves the electric apocalypse widely believable, helping the longer. That, in turn, helps doomsday movements spread urgent warnings win converts. faster and faster, and makes the word Pollyanna unusually Even embedded myths sustain layers of more deeply embed­ common in Y2K discussions. ded myth, such as the notion that gasoline cannot be pumped in The psychological term denial also works this way. Used a power failure. In an emergency, mechanics could easily re-route ever since Freud described four defense mechanisms, the term the plumbing and re-power die station's air compressor with a describes how real people often react to threatening thoughts. gasoline motor, or simply use a generator. But the idea that gas Yet doomsayers can allege "denial" far easier than non-doom- won't flow without electricity is simpler to express and provokes sayers can ever disprove it. The non-doomsayers presumably more urge to warn others. Furthermore, most listeners lack the have to explain all the details of why society will continue to mechanical knowledge to reject it. So visions of an America function just to clear that single term "denial" from the dis­ without gasoline spread widely in the world of Y2K lore. cussion. Besides, denying denial is still "denial," making it per­ haps the perfect source of refutation resistance. "Denial" thus Secondary Catastrophic Prophecies becomes central to Y2K meme complexes that people have not dropped, and helps those meme sets survive and spread. Along with these apocalyptic memes come a variety of lesser Thought contagions permeate online technology forums as catastrophic prophesies. Many, for instance, worry enough well. If an engineer knows a solution to a critical problem, she about the banking system to plan large cash withdrawals—even may work diligendy to solve it, perhaps marketing the fix to cor-

34 November/December 1999 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER porations through a new consulting business. But if someone but still thrives on die contagiousness of dire predictions. The else hastily decides that the problem has no solution, he may feel main difference is that this type of Y2K movement tells its adher­ compelled to warn people. Others feel compelled to publicize ents diat to save themselves, they must save dieir communities. problems that don't exist. They might, for instance, think that That means going forth to persuade as many neighbors as possi­ today's cars incorporate date information in the engine timing, ble in order to launch community-wide preparation efforts. It and announce that cars will suddenly stop at midnight. Since has the benefit of making communities more disaster-resilient public Internet forums are open to postings by non-experts, the and competes for adherents with isolationist messages. Yet die misbeliefs and erroneous information that inspire retransmis­ people most motivated to spread die movement in die commu­ sion are well represented. So even the "high tech" forums act as nity are often still die ones with unrealistically dire expectations. reservoirs of infection for information viruses. In some cases dire warnings will have spurred sluggish Not surprisingly, some of those proclaiming the end of the bureaucracies into fixing their software. In other cases, dire world are also experts in such high technology fields as computer warnings will interfere with work, inspiring key employees to programming. People in many profes­ quit and head for remote cabins. sions regard their line of work as the S In effect, it gives programmers most important, or nearly the most 3 mental software that bogs down important, in society. Programmers and 5 in an endless loop of terrifying electrical engineers are no exception. thoughts. Apocalypse warnings This belief can make them emotionally may leave some administrators receptive to suggestions that society will thinking, "If this message is true, collapse if malfunctions hit whole cate­ then I have no reason to rouse gories of their products. Normally myself to elaborate action, sharp thinkers can therefore become because my organization has no uncritical of extraordinary claims function in a collapsed civiliza­ swirling around Y2K. Once they accept tion." Others may conclude that such claims, the same professional pride the whole thing was just hype can lead them to spread those thoughts. and hysteria. In other words, An engineer saying the world will end irrational beliefs about Y2K act from a crashed product line is a round­ as conceptually "weakened about, unconscious way of declaring, strains," immunizing some peo­ "My profession is crucial!" The thought ple against the idea that there is contagion reinforces itself, too: once any problem to fix at all. Such some technologists express the TEOT- effects may have slowed software WAWKI meme, it becomes more credi­ fixes and made Y2K worse, not ble to other technologists. Though a better. To the panic-stricken, the minority among their colleagues, they occasional "Y2K-denyers" help spread the meme to those lay peo­ looked like captains of the ple who regard technologists as auto­ Titanic—and "prooP that a cat­ matic "experts" on the societal impact astrophe really would strike. ofY2K. That, in turn, has strengthened die urge to spread dire warnings. Y2K apocalypse memes thrive on pre-existing religious Calls to Action doomsaying. Endemic beliefs that the end is near make it easier to think diat deadly sin of digital sloth will hasten die end. Investing heavily in a meme makes die meme harder to shake Fundamentalists who see die fading plausibility of apocalypse off. People who have gone so far as to relocate, sell assets, stock­ coming from the Soviet "evil empire" can turn their attention to pile food, and persuade friends find it hard to believe diat their the technocrats. So the belief in a technological debacle spreads alarm might have been unfounded. Instead, they may include vigorously in many religious circles, producing some of die themselves in die minority "smart enough" to prepare for loudest Y2K doomsayers. They include conservative Christian TEOTWAWK1. This helps die meme spread by keeping die host activist Gary North, who widely proclaims the Y2K apocalypse contagious longer. For many, recovery will not happen until the in computer terms that persuade even die non-religious. year 2000. Even after calamity fails to strike diat year, some will Meanwhile, the secular doomsday meme renders its hosts more continue believing in the wisdom of dicir actions as "better safe susceptible to religious evangelism. Many evangelicals point to than sorry." Those who sounded the most dire warnings will the millennium bug as a sign diat they and the book of likely even take credit for saving civilization by pressuring slug­ Revelation were right all along. Religious hell memes help the gish organizations to .1.1. evangelism work, since they imply infinite suffering for mistak­ A less drastic version of die Y2K preparation movement calls enly "rejecting Christ" but litdc penalty for mistakenly convert­ for action focused on a community level instead of moving to ing. In any case, even the most adieistic doomsaying has roots remote cabins. Such an approach is generally more constructive, in religion. After all, a religious thought contagion got us

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER November/December 1999 35 counting die years since the birth of Jesus in the first place. Explaining the technological details of why modern life will When the year 2000 arrives, many evangelicals who not collapse will remain an important aspect in countering Y2K thought the Y2K bug would play a role in the End Times will hysteria through the end of 1999. Yet many people need what revert to the more date-neutral Adventism they held before the amounts to a combination therapy: they need to see not only software story broke. We should, however, expect some the fantastic scenarios refuted, but also why millions of people extreme cults to have serious problems with a world that can all be wrong about it. Asking how an idea was acquired can refuses to end. We should also expect a few groups to believe help in spotting irrational diought contagions and mounting an not only that the End Times are upon us, but that they have a immune reaction. Thoughts that come from others, that are hard to set aside, and diat make one impa­ We should expect some extreme cults to have tient to tell new people can be recognized as serious problems with a world that refuses to end. likely thought contagions. Learning to spot them makes it easier to pause for research We should also expect a few groups to believe not before believing or spreading them. This also only that the End Times are upon us, but that they helps with all sorts of irrational ideas aside from Y2K. Rational inquiry in general can have a divinely ordained role in causing it. be advanced if more people learn to think divinely ordained role in causing it. This could mean a cluster about their roles as infectious information of strange events such as the Heavens Gate tragedy and the carriers. For this, Y2K presents a unique educational opportu­ Tokyo attack by the doomsday cult Aum Shinri Kyo. Some of nity, since the contagious myths will have lasted only a year or these will happen after January 2000, owing to such things as two in most cases. Starting in 2000, millions of former doom- estimates of the birth date of Jesus and the legacy of starting a sayers will have a chance to think about the hysteria in hindsight millennium on 1 A.D. rather than 0 A.D. as a lesson in mass delusion. If we take time to discuss die social phenomenon after it passes, die insights learned may benefit die The rest of society will also have many people hearing of "die information qualify of society well into the next century. coming anarchy." Unfortunately, some will act accordingly, despite an increased police presence. Being infected with a belief that "the end is near" can make the criminal element more Notes active, since apocalypse implies no penalty for getting caught. A 1. Sec Dawkins, Richard. 1976. The Selfish Gene. New Yorlc Oxford few people may even try to foment chaos, for the simple reason University Press. that they have prepared so well for it and do not want their 2. For a nontechnical application of memetic science to numerous areas of mass culture, sec Lynch, Aaron. 1996. Thought Contagion: How Belief Spreads efforts and emotional investment wasted. With extremists view­ Through Society. New York: Basic Books. For further applications and techni­ ing Y2K as deliverance from an evil social order, a few may even cal papers, see Thought Contagion Metnetics http://www.tJioughtcontagion. try to hasten the apocalypse dirough sabotage. We thus have two com. For a recent scientific discussion about memes see Blackmore, Susan. 1999. The Menu Machine. Oxford University Press. problems on our hands: die century bug of die computers, and 3. See Lacayo, Richard. 1999. The end of the world as we know it? Time, the millennium thought contagion of the human mind. January 18, 60-70. •

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36 November/December 1999 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER 'Debunking the Debunkers' A Response to an Astrologer's Debunking of Skeptics

An article published in The Mountain Astrologer in the fall of 1998 claimed to rebut criticisms of astrology by debunkers. An examination of the astrologers arguments shows that astrology has almost no resources with which to respond to critics. I. W. KELLY

he August-September 1998 issue of the magazine The Mountain Astrologer (TMA) contained an inter­ Testing article entitled "Debunking the Debunkers" that attempted to rebut many criticisms of astrology. The author, Valerie Vaughan, who has a master's degree in infor­ mation science, has been a practicing astrologer and a writer on astrological topics for twenty-five years. Vaughan defines debunkers of astrology as diehard skeptics who "actively reject and even persecute astrology" (1998, 12). They are usually ignorant, misinformed, and "persist in running tests specifically aimed at discrediting it" (1998, 12). Vaughan's article attempts to turn the tables and debunk the debunkers. Since many of her responses are representative of what is

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER November/December 1999 37 in the astrological media, a critical examination of them may be Vaughan is alluding to the importance of taking many astro­ worthwhile to SI readers. I will also allude to other astrological logical factors into consideration ("the whole chart") when writings where relevant. interpreting birth charts. The characteristics a particular plane­ The main debunkings of astrology that Vaughan rebuts are: tary configuration signifies can be made more or less pro­ 1. Astrologers fail to do research nounced (or can almost disappear) with the presence of other 2. Astrologers ignore the scientific approach particular planetary configurations. Note the problem: If 3. Astrology lacks scientific evidence astrologers say that certain planetary configurations tend to 4. Astrologers disagree on fundamentals and coincide with certain characteristics of people, then that's a sta­ 5. Astrologers appeal to whatever is fashionable tistical claim. But if certain other factors make the observations I will examine each debunking-and-rebuttal in turn. inconclusive, how could astrologers ever have determined the meanings of the isolated planetary configurations in the first Astrologers Fail to Do Research place, or confirm their viability in the present? Furthermore, if the supposed variation in time quality really did affect the qual­ Vaughan points out diat one of the most common criticisms of ity of successive samples, we might expect the massive world­ astrology is the failure of astrologers to design research studies wide application of statistical quality control to have detected it and run controlled statistical tests to examine their claims. Her by now. For example, according to astrology the uniformity of, answer is "Research is an extremely time-consuming and expen­ say, steel plate or of single silicon crystals would change accord­ sive endeavor" and astrologers are "outside me academic main­ ing to planetary configurations as well. stream with no access to research funding" (1998, 12). Vaughan Vaughans statement also indicates a very limited idea of neglects to inform her readers that there already exists a large what research is about: If I ask an astrologer to match up seven amount of scientific research conducted by astrologers, sympa­ people with their horoscopes, believers expect them (and they thetic scientists, and critics. The results have been accumulating themselves expect) to perform much better than chance. But since the 1950s. Most of them are bad news for astrology, with research shows that they do not perform better than chance many of the studies conducted by astrologers just as negative as (Dean, Mather, and Kelly 1996; Nanninga 1997; Ertel 1998; those by critics. A number of books and articles have reviewed Smit 1999). these studies (Dean and Mather 1977; Eysenck and Nias 1982; A related objection to the scientific approach Vaughan Culver and Ianna 1988; Ankerberg and Weldon 1989; Dean, describes as follows: Mather, and Kelly 1996; Kelly 1997; Martens and Trachet 1998). Her article also fails to note that astrologers generally have Another problem with statistical analysis is that the zodiacal no training in how to conduct or evaluate research and there­ signs can spend different amounts of time on the horizon. People born at the latitude of London arc three times more fore could not do it even if they had funding. Training institu­ likely to have Scorpio rising than Pisces rising. This can seri­ tions and courses for astrologers do not require exposure to ously skew one's statistical results (1998, 14). research methods or even require any knowledge of the research literature on astrology, yet those elements are indispensable in But this objection is trivial. Correction for rising sign dura- other disciplines. Even massive cash incentives of up to $5,000 don is in fact very easy. (Gauquelin, and rhose invesrigating the (U.S.) have not motivated astrologers to produce evidence for "Mars effect" had to take into consideration far more demanding central tenets (Dean and Mather 1985).' factors than Vaughans simplistic example, such as the complex daily movements of Mars, along with a variety of demographic Astrologers Ignore the Scientific Approach conditions.) If this is a difficulty for statisticians, consider how much more difficult it would be for astrologers who wished to Vaughans own complaint about funding is later undermined check on the validity of astrological pronouncements or to decide when she shifts ground and tells us that (statistical) scientific between conflicting interpretations. Not only would they have to research is inadequate to test the complexity of astrology: statistically obtain information on die rising signs but also some­ Scientists also insist on statistical analysis using random sam­ how relate this information to the complexity of human behav­ ples. But astrology cannot be proven or disproven using ran­ ior and sort out what human activity is related to what planetary dom samples because astrology is based on die premise that configurations. The problem becomes almost insurmountable if, conditions are never random. For example, scientists might as many modern astrologers assert, planetary configurations assume that any time is just as good as another to perform a test of astrology, but what if you're testing whethet Pisces is less reflect inner psychological states and structures. These astrologers aggressive dian Aries, and it so happens that Mars is rising dur­ (Archetype and psychological astrologers) contend that astrology ing the test? Of suppose that preliminary research docs reveal can only provide interpretations of the inner life of human some validity in astrology, but in a later attempt at replicating beings, which does not necessarily fit in with observable behav­ the results, die Moon is void of course or Neptune is rising. Of course the results will be inconclusive (1998, 13-14). ior nor with the client's introspections (see Kelly 1997 for a cri­ tique of psychological astrology).

Ivan W Kelly is a professor in Educational Psychology at the University Astrology Lacks Scientific Evidence of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada S7N-OXI. He is Not only does Vaughan think that statistics is inadequate to test also Chairman of the Astrology Subcommittee of CSICOP. astrology, she suggests that scientific investigations into the

38 November/Decembet 1999 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER validity of astrology (and hence the lack of scientific evidence) currently in Sagittarius'" (my italics 1998, 16) and with her ear­ may be irrelevant anyway: "debunkers insist upon testing lier reference to isolated factors such as 'void of course moon' astrology's metaphysical principles with scientific methodology. and 'rising Neptune'!'1 Furthermore, the astrologers writing in They might as well measure consciousness widi a spoon" almost every article of The Mountain Astrologer ate, by her own (1998, 13).:To describe something as metaphysical, by itself, is standards, astrologically incompetent. For example, in the same to say very litde, except that in some unspecified sense, the issue of TMA that Vaughan reminds readers about the maxim claims are not amenable to scientific scrutiny. It is never made regarding the whole chart, one reads in a letter to the editor: "as clear by Vaughan, or by most astrologers, how astrology is to be a terrified Cancerian who had just survived a Uranus transit considered, or what kinds of evidence/reasoning are relevant over my natal Saturn and Aquarius Ascendant . . -" (1998, 7). when investigating its validity or usefulness. Vaughan, unhelp­ In one of the main articles, an astrologer writes "the Sun and fully, tells us only that astrology is not a science "in die same Jupiter in the same sign show an individual who is religious or sense as chemistry or physics" (1998, 13), although "it might be very authoritarian about religious pursuits" (Gomes 1998, 51). considered a social science" (1998, 13). On the other hand, it The New Scope (January 11,1999) on the TMA Web site "functions more like philosophy in that it seeks knowledge of a informs us that Robin Williams's "penetrating wit can be seen broader reality drat includes the metaphysical" (1998, 13). in his Mercury-Pluto conjunction which resides in the tenth Here Vaughan is arguing that astrology is more like philosophy, house."' So much for Vaughan's claim that "Astrology is incred­ so science (and therefore scientific evidence) is largely irrele­ ibly complex; there are innumerable variables which must be vant. But her argument ignores the problem that if we seek considered before an astrologer can confidently make a state­ knowledge of this broader reality we can still fail to find it, or ment" (1998, 14). be misled. What "tools" do astrologers find reliable here, and In general, astrologers in their writings deny the importance how would they know?' And when they have found the correct of isolated factors. However, when consulting with clients and broader reality how do these tools help resolve conflicts conversing at astrological conferences, the situation is quite dif­ between, or even within, schools of astrology? Vaughan does ferent. For example, at any astrological conference one can not tell us. overhear astrologers talk about "my Saturn, my Moon, my A further point here is that if astrologers reject scientific Sun," and make statements like "Yes, I gesture a lot but that's tests, why are they so accepting of experience (e.g., "my experi­ because I'm a Gemini," and, indeed, blame every little mishap ence shows astrology works"), which (other than decreased in their lives on the behavior of natal planetary positions, tran- carefulness) differs little in its subject matter from scientific investigations. The astrologer Cornelius, on the other hand, is up-front and places astrology squarely in the occult and supernatural tradi­ tion: "it is a divinatory system that can be studied in the light of what we know about the I Ching, Tarot, tea leaves, and that whole gamut of practices called divination" (1998, 2). But this will come too close to fortune-telling, and therefore be anath­ ema (at least publicly) to many astrologers. On this basis astrology seems destined to be a Holmesless Watson (to use Kai Nielsens lovely phrase). Vaughan proceeds to castigate scientists who investigate astrology as relying on "simplistic assumptions about astrol­ ogy." For example, she says they test isolated factors like zodiac signs, the rising sign, or planetary con­ figurations like Mars in Leo: "Practitioners of astrology know that no one factor, such as the Moon in Aquarius, can 'mean' anything in an absolute sense" since "this ignores the wholeness of a chart and of the person" (1998, 14). Those who do so are "totally unqual­ ified to test astrology by any method" (1998, 14). Ironically, Vaughan violates her own stricture two pages later with the statement, "Scientist debunkers have entered die Well, of course you're skeptical- realm of public school education, but what else would you expect with Pluto you're a Taurus!

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER November/December 1999 39 sits, progressions, directions, and so on. "I am a depressive the social sciences: There are rules of methodology and evi­ introvert. You know, Moon conjunct Saturn, what else can you dence consistently applied worldwide that are used to help sep­ expect?" or "Pluto transiting my Sun has caused all sorts of arate out valuable ideas from less valuable or false ideas. Indeed, problems in my life" or "We get on (or don't get on) because astrologers use planetary positions based on the trustworthiness our Suns are in opposition" or "My car was stolen, because I of many claims of scientific theory and observation." By con­ had Neptune transiting over my Node"—conveniently forget­ trast, healthy intellectual debates are conspicuous by their ting that this transit took quite a few months to complete. absence in TMA, which seems to prefer polemics to criticism, However, it was die only transit that this astrologer could find. and propaganda to serious argument and informed discussion. Well, there "had" to be a planetary culprit, so.. .! Such com­ Textbooks in the physical, biological, and social sciences ments are from practicing astrologers and readers of magazines include research results and rigorous debate, whereas in astrol­ like TMA. ogy the opposite prevails—negative findings are ignored or vig­ While the whole chart is emphasized by astrologers when orously explained away, and there is little, if any, attempt to debating critics or explaining away negative studies, very few synthesize research results (which are readily accessible to recognize that the whole chart is far too problematic for them astrologers) and base new theories on diem.'' In short, if the dis­ to deal with (Kelly 1997; Dean, Kelly, and Mather 1999). So agreements in modern science were as serious as those in mod­ astrologers are forced to focus on whatever few isolated factors ern astrology, we would still be in the Stone Age. their experience (or their instructor's experience) has shown In this regard, although the astrological research journal "works." Unfortunately, which factors "work" often varies from Correlation is published by a large society of astrologers, it is not one astrologer to another, as an examination of articles in any widely read by astrologers, let alone its findings acted upon by issue of TMA or any other astrological magazine will readily them."1 Furthermore, the disciplines in the sciences are also rel­ confirm.6 The interesting problem of how astrologers, on the atively compatible widi each other, whereas astrology is not (no basis of their experience, come to believe so passionately in dif­ science is uncritically based on mythological connections) fering nonexistent effects (as far as we know) is fully addressed (Kelly 1997). by Dean, Mather, and Kelly (1996), in even more detail by Dean, Kelly, and Mather (1999), and in terms of fascinating Astrologers Appeal to Whatever Is Fashionable parallels with phrenology by Dean (1998). Vaughan's final response is to the criticism of astrology for "Attempting to sell itself by associating with whatever latest Astrologers Disagree on Fundamentals theories have caught the public's imagination, such as mytho­ Next, Vaughan addresses the often-heard criticism that there is logical archetypes" (1998 13). Vaughan's rebuttal is much disagreement among astrologers over basic ideas. For Scientists, of course, do exactly the same thing. When example, tropical and sidereal astrologers promote zodiacs that [astronomer] E.C. Krupp publishes his monthly astro- differ by almost one sign in position, so that one can believe a mythology column in Sky and Telescope, it is considered an certain piece of sky means intense while the other side can admirable attempt to 'bring science to the masses' (1998, 13). believe the same piece of sky means relaxed. Her response is: But this rebuttal conflates two different issues. Krupp and oth­ In orthodox science, a lack of mutual agreement over very basic ers use public interest in mythology as a vehicle or motivating premises is considered a healthy expression of intellectual tool, not as a reliable basis for constructing complex theories debate, and the opposing camps are hailed as 'different schools about human behavior. For example, they might use zodiac of thought'. Astrologers using different house systems are accused of inconsistency, while in physics one can discuss signs to motivate interest in precession or the Hubble constant. whether light is a wave or a particle. ... In behavioral genet­ Contrast this usage of mythology with the following astrologi­ ics, no one complains if biologists formulate competing options cal usage: like "nature versus nurture." In medical science, doctors make a respectable living giving second opinions (1998, 12-13)." Mr. [Ken] Starr's [Clinton's adversary] natal [birth] chart shows a Mars at 18 degrees Virgo square his Uranus at 20 degrees At first sight this seems like a good argument. However, if Gemini. Sakoian and Acker, in the Astrologer's Handbook astrology was a "young science" (like evolutionary psychology) (1987), tells us: 'This square tends to cause recklessness and dangerous sudden action....' (Coschignano 1998, 9) or a relatively new discipline (like psycholinguistics), this argu­ ment would carry more weight. But (according to which This reference to an isolated factor describes a relationship astrologer is consulted), astrology has been around for between between a Western myrhology-based interpretation of a plane­ three and five millennia! Surely after all die millennia of (what tary conjunction with cosmopolitan human behavior, some­ we are told) die growth and refinement of astrology, there thing Krupp would never do. should be more agreement on basic tenets and resolution of It is pertinent to point out that some prominent astrologers outstanding anomalies! (Dean, Mather, and Kelly 1996; Kelly would be in accord with critics here, that is, that astrologers 1997; Spencer 1997). In contrast, many of Aristotle's observa­ appeal to whatever is fashionable to increase the credibility of tions and insights have survived to this day and can be astrology by association. For example, the astrologer Cornelius defended and confirmed (Byrne 1997). (1998) contends that when astrologers associate astrology wirh Consider what happens in physics, biology, medicine, and scientific and philosophical theories, they misrepresent astrol-

40 November/December 1999 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER ogy as something it is not (i.e., a quasi-scientific or philosoph­ strange knock on my door with no one present is more accept­ ical enterprise). He is worth quoting in full: ably explained as due to wind, or a prank, or hearing error, than Intelligent critics of astrology maintain that astrologers have leprechauns or even a small meteorite.) always managed to use the prevailing culture and ethos of the times in which they live (the science and philosophy of dieir period) to Training institutions and courses for astrologers disguise themselves and cunningly continue with their practices. This is absolutely do not require exposure to research methods or true. . . -We disguised ourselves as Aristotelian science the better pan of two even require any knowledge of the research millennia. Then we tacked ourselves onto literature on astrology, yet those elements are modem science in the revival of two cen­ turies ago when astrology disguised itself as indispensable in other disciplines. magnetism and electricity, and later as radio waves. Depth psychology [Jungian archetype psychoanalysis] is just die latest disguise. Perhaps we can do nothing else, for how Fear of Losing Control can this form of symbolism survive without being in the cor­ rupt position of lying about itself in some way in older to get Vaughan's second, and related, explanation of debunkers' by? (1998, 3) behavior is in terms of political class wars: "The war against astrology began as a class war and remains so today," a war dri­ Explaining the Behavior of Debunkers ven by "power through funding. Astrology was driven from the ranks of the intellectual elite during the Scientific Revolution, As well as attempting to debunk the debunkers, Vaughan also pushed out by a rising class of professionals called scientists" provides three main explanations why critics "expend so much (1998, 15). However, even if this was true, it does not explain energy trying to disempower astrology," namely: why the scientists succeeded and the astrologers did not. 1. Critics cannot bear an unexplained phenomenon Perhaps scientists produced die goods while die astrologers 2. Critics fear losing control failed to do so. Or maybe because the contradictions and 3. Critics are driven by scientism anomalies in astrology multiplied without end (ever since I will now consider each in turn. Sextus Empiricus, St. Augustine, Pico della Mirandola, and others signaled them centuries ago) making astrology a very Unbearable Lack of Explanation unpromising research program (see Culver and Ianna 1988; Kelly 1997; Dean, Mather, and Kelly 1996; Martens and Vaughan maintains, "The real problem is that scientific Trachet 1998). Most likely the ability of scientists to detect debunkers are intellectual control junkies who cannot bear the error in their theories, and the inability of astrologers to do so, thought of a phenomenon they can't explain" (1998, 16). had much to do with it (Kelly 1998). But mere is nothing here Vaughan never informs readers how she acquired this informa­ about fearing to lose control, power, and status. Even if the tion, even though she is critical of debunkers who fail to provide struggle were entirely political, Vaughan does not appear inter­ supporting evidence for their statements about astrologers ested in the possibility, consistent with het own reasoning, rhat (1998, 17). Some debunkers, of course, might be as she says; but astrologers obtained theit earlier positions of power and influ­ others might be debunking simply because the astrological ence by similar class wars. claims they have come across are contradictory or are promoted without adequate support (and are therefore perceived as deserv­ Driven By Scientism ing to be debunked), in die same way diat many claims about UFOs or psychic crime busters or suspicious medical treatments Vaughan's third explanation is that debunkers arc driven by sci­ deserve to be debunked. There is no necessary connection here entism, the view that "the scientific method or rationalism is with debunkers finding the unexplained unbearable. the best way, and perhaps even die only way, to gain knowledge Also, as argued by Dean, Mather, and Kelly (1996), Dean about the world. 'World' here is defined as die material uni­ (1998), Lillqvist and Lindeman (1998) and Dean, Kelly, and verse, which in turn is equated with 'reality'" (1998, 12). There Mather (1999), straightforward nonparanormal explanations are several problems with this explanation. First, as in the pre­ of why astrology works are already available rJiat fit its known vious two explanations, Vaughan neglects ro inform her readers characteristics. If we can understand how astrology works with­ how she knows this applies ro debunkers. out resorting to the paranormal, appealing to future science, ot Second, accusations of scientism are a common ploy by theorizing speculatively about die tidal forces of planets, then astrologers ro deflate any scientific or philosophical criticism any reference to die applicability or inapplicability of scientific from the start. Ironically, the ploy ignores its counterpart, methods becomes moot, simply because there is linle left to namely astrologism, which might imply the view that nothing explain." After all, in both everyday life and science, we would else is relevant because astrology is the way, the truth, and the prefer, odier things being equal, an explanation for particular light, or that it is meaningful to describe isolated factors but puzzling phenomena that is consistent with our present con­ meaningless ro test them, or that sun signs are valid but a five- firmed theories, ovet more complex or esoteric explanations. (A minute error in birdi-time can make all the difference, or that,

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER November/December 1999 41 given the right technique, astrology can explain everything. Notes Third, the thinking is patently invalid. It takes a relatively straightforward testable claim such as "docs the birth chart 1. Vaughan tells her astrological readers, "During the past two decades, psy­ chology journals have published an average of eight studies per year 'refuting' match the person better than a control" and inflates it to a astrology" (1998, 17), as if all refutations were automatically invalid. In (act, grandiose claim regarding "knowledge about the world." her scare quotes seem justified but for a different reason—astrology as practiced Scientific methods may not be the only approaches that con­ by most astrologers is nonfalsifiablc. so by definition, there can be no refuting, only 'refuting' (Sec Kelly 1998). tribute to answering questions about the second claim, but they 2. Many statements made in TMA read like relatively straightforward claims seem to be a very reliable approach to the first. that arc amenable to scientific inquiry. Consider these two statements: "Astrologers can thank the pineal gland as the physi­ ological mechanism most likely responsible for the gener­ alized personality traits we have come to associate with the zodiac signs" (Zagar 1998. 67); "The Sun in the same sign Rather than discuss informed critiques with Venus gives the individual great beauty...." (Gomes 1998, 51), and so on, in every issue. However, uSings are of astrology, Vaughan's article only addresses not what they appear to be in the world or astrology. Even though claims like the latter have the outward appearance misinformed critiques as if the former of empirical generalizations, most astrologers would con­ sider them to be about "possibilities, potentialities, and did not exist. trends ... [where the] actual outcome depends entirely upon the dicnt's ability to deal crcativdy with whatever comes" (Treberne 1998. 96). This view is representative of astrologers writing in TMA and other astrological journals. A further ad hoc- Fourth, debunkers could have mainly nonscientific (i.e., addition is that the astrological claims do not have to be taken as literally true, but may be interpreted symbolically. For example, the sun in Taurus is connected philosophical or metaphysical) concerns about astrological the­ with wealth, but this docs not necessarily mean the individual is materially ory and its claims (see Kelly 1997, 1054-1061). But even if sci- wealthy. The person could be spiritually wealthy or socially wealthy (have many entism were typical of debunkers, they could still be right about friends, be loved by many people). These qualifications, of course, guarantee that at least one of the interpretations will fit the dient, and so contribute to a suc­ astrology. After all, human history is full of rakes, bounders, cessful reading. racists, and sexists, all arguably as disreputable as disciples of 3. An examination of issues of TMA from 1996 to 1999 indicates that the scientism, who have nevertheless sometimes been right about main methods associated with birth chart reading arc Intuition and psychic abil­ some things. ity (the 'eye of contemplation') and appeals to one's own authority ('it works'). Fifth, it oversimplifies the debate over astrology by allowing But these introduce new complications, and astrologers have not provided good reason to believe these promote agreement among astrologers. Furthermore, as only two camps, scientist versus believers, as if this dichotomy used by astrologers, these terms arc used in a way that is different than everyday were somehow relevant. Throughout history, advocates, skep­ usage. Instead of intuition as hunch, intuition is viewed as a leap of insight that "has resonance with the unseen universe" (Russ 1998, 93). Similarly, the usage of tics, and those better classified as limited believers, have the term psychic ability is far more problematic than how most parapsychologists embraced a great variety of divergent and overlapping philoso­ use the term. For example, many astrologers use the expression as an ability that phies, most of them irrelevant to the material claims made in "makes some kind of connections to a higher dimension of energy ... which [enables astrologers] to see one of a dicnt's significant past lives ... even psychic astrology books. visions of the future" (April 1998. 94). The assumption is that this unseen spiri­ tual reality is both straightforwardly apprehended and untainted. Any issue ol Conclusion TMA and other astrological publications will attest to the pervasiveness of such scandalously undcrclothed views in astrology, along with little or no awareness of Overall, astrological readers of Vaughan's article "Debunking the intractable nature of such claims. For a discussion of intuition and ESP in the astrological context sec Dean. Loptson, and Kelly (1996). the Debunkers" cannot fail to get the impression that all criti­ cisms of astrology are glib, misinformed, and out-of-date. 4. One might think from the way astrologers talk that they must have extracted their judgments about isolated factors from knowledge thai was Indeed, this view can be found repeated endlessly throughout acquired through research. In any case, when doing research over many horo­ astrology magazines, books, and conferences. Ironically, some scopes, isolated factors should "shine through." For example, it would, in prin­ of astrology's strongest critics are or have been successful ciple, be easy to take one thousand people with Mars conjunct their Ascendants, and then test them for aggressiveness, and next take one thousand astrologers themselves, and often seen as turncoats. But aggressive people and see how many of them have Mars on the Ascendant com­ debunkers as defined by Vaughan are straw men, caricatures pared to another thousand nonaggressivc individuals (Kelly 1997. 1038). According to most astrologers, this knowledge has been acquired over centuries that are set up and then shown to be uninformed and dog­ of astrological practice. But if the experience-based observations of the phre­ matic. Many are not like that, nor (if astrology delivered what nologists were wrong, why not also those of the astrologers? (Dean 1998). The the books claim) would their studies discredit it. In short, astrologer Cornelius says, "If astrology is not founded in objective-empirical factors observed in large populations, then what is it founded in? And what sort rather than discuss informed critiques of astrology, Vaughan's ol truth is it that we discover in each unique case of interpretation?" (1994, 15). article only addresses misinformed critiques as if the former did Unfortunately, he doesn't answer these questions.

not exist. The converted are thus comforted without having to 5. Vaughan tells us, "The fact that debunkers continue to use newspaper reconsider their beliefs. Whatever one may think of astrology, horoscope columns as targets is obvious evidence of their faulty understanding of astrology, for no serious astrologer considers these columns a valid expression its students deserve better than this. of his or her art" (1998. 15). But if Vaughan's own artide condemns isolated factors like sun signs, why cannot debunkers do the same? Vaughan's statement Acknowledgements is also false. Any discussion of sun sign columns in many astrological magazines (e.g., Dell Horoscope) and astrologers' Internet web pages provide ample mate­ I would like to thank Geoffrey Dean, Rudolf Smit, and Jan Willem rial to contradict this claim (see quotes cited by Dean and Mather 1986). There Nienhuys for their critical comments and suggestions on earlier drafts are also plenty of serious astrologers (e.g., Nick Campion, President of the of this material. British Astrological Association) who write sun sign columns and consider

42 Novembet/December 1999 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER them a useful expression of their an. Ii is of passing interest that the same issue ous (eariy 1930s) conditions (see Smit 1997). Modern astrologers, however, of TMA (Fall 1998) contains an article cniiiled "Dog'Stars of the Zodiac" have failed to produce similar results as Knegt, widi die same data (Smit 1999). (Parker 1998), where we arc informed that Taurus dogs are "stubborn," diat "The Aries dog likes to be first," and that Scorpio dogs are "exceedingly mag­ References netic and charming," but only to dicir masters (1998, 85). As a side note: By projecting human emotions and characteristics onto animals as such astrologers Ankerberg, J., and J. Weldon. 1989. Astrology: Do the Heavens Rule Our do, they may be neglecting the animals own special abilities and project certain Destiny? Eugene: Harvest House. limitations on them that trivialize them. (Sec for example, Budiansky [1998] April, D. 1998. Intuition and astrology: Astrologers forum. The Mountain for more on the topic of animal abilities.) Astrologer SO: 95. 6. One might expect the agreement in interpreting birth charts to be much Budiansky. S. 1998. If a Lion Could Talk: Animal Intelligence and the Evolution better, given the uniformity among textbooks widiin each school of astrology, but of Consciousness. Chicago: Free Press. this applies only if they agree on what "works." A similar situation arises in psy­ Byrne, RH. 1997. Analysis and Science in Aristotle. New York: Sate University chotherapy, where a variety of different approaches can often achieve the same of New York Press. end. The appropriate conclusion drawn by psychologists is that the main factors Cornelius, G. 1994. The Moment of Astrology. London: Penguin Arkana. responsible for successful therapy are personal characteristics of the therapist, and . 1998. Is astrology divination and does it matter? Paper presented at the quality of me relationship between client and therapist (Hubble, Duncan, United Astrology Congress, Atlanta, Georgia. May 22. and Miller 1999). The framework utilized in counseling or psychorJicrapy does Coschignano, D. 1998. Letter to die editor. The Mountain Astrologer 80. 9. not need to be true in order to "work." For astrologers this would mean acknowl­ Culver, R-, and I. Ianna. 1988. Astrology: True or False? A Scientific edging that accurate birth information is unnecessary for a successful reading. A Investigation. Amherst: Prometheus Books. useful discussion of astrology in this context can be found in Dean 1991, 1998. Dean, G. 1991. Does astrology need to be true? In: The Hundredth Monkey 7. Later she adds the observation that different astrologers routinely give and Other Paradigms of the Paranormal Ken Frazier (cd). Buffalo: Pro­ different interpretations of the same client is not a problem for astrology alone. metheus Books, pp. 279-319. After all, "If you go to ten different doctors or therapists, you will also get ten . 1998. Meaningful coincidences: Parallels between phrenology and different opinions, but it's probably cheaper to go to ten astrologers" (1998, astrology. Correlation 17: 9—40. 13). However, it is far more likely diat the opinions of doctors and therapists, Dean, G., and A. Mather. 1977. Recent Advances in Natal Astrology: A Critical at least for standard cases, will concur than among astrologers. Many of die Review 1900-1997. Rockport: Para Research, Inc. diagnostic instruments in medicine and psychology have been submitted to Dean, G., and A. Mather. 1985. Superprize winners Pan 1: And a new prize reliability and validity checks (sec the journals Psychoeducational Assessment, to challenge the critics. Astrological Journal 28: 23-30. Psychological Assessment, etc.). Instruments and procedures that do not fare well Dean, G.. and A. Mather. 1996. Sun sign columns: An armchair investigation. on these checks to the satisfaction of the scientific community are routinely Astrological Journal 38: 143-155. criticized in the relevant literature. At least in medicine and the social sciences Dean, G-, P. Loptson, and I.W. Kelly. 1996. Theories of astrology. Correlation there is an awareness rhat problems of trustworthiness, validity/credibility, and 15:17-52. the need for psychological biases to be taken into consideration. It goes with­ Dean, G-, A. Mather, and I.W. Kelly. 1996. Astrology. Encyclopedia of the out saying that the situation is hardly analogous in astrology. Paranormal G. Stein (cd). Amherst: Prometheus Books, pp. 47-99. 8. Astrologers are in the ironic position of having to assume the reliability of Dean, G., I.W. Kelly, and A- Mather. 1999. Astrology and human judgement. science for their craft, while the converse is certainly not true. After all, astrologers Correlation 17:8-40. utilize an astronomical ephemeris to calculate planetary positions. They also rely End, S. 1998. Astro-quiz: Can astrologers pick politicians from painters? on rhe theories of astronomers regarding the outermost planets which cannot be Correlation 17:3-8. seen with die unaided eye. Vaughan's "People born at the latitude of London are Eysenck. H., and D. Nias. 1982. Astrology: Science or Superstition? New York: three times more likely to have Scorpio rising than Pisces rising" (1998, 14) is Penguin Books. based on empirical observation. She tells us diat astrologers are presendy involved Gomes, G. 1998. Surya: The Sun in Vedic astrology. The Mountain Astrologer in the astrological significance of "pulsars, quasars, black holes, nebulae, infiared 80:50-53. 116. energy sources, radio sources, and galaxies" (p. 13). Astrologers are also eager to Hubble, MA. B.L Duncan, and S.D. Miller (eds). 1999. The Heart and Soul remind their readers that many prominent scientists of the past were involved, to of Change: What Works in Therapy. Washington: American Psychological varying degrees, with astrology (Scofidd 1998). Of course, many big-league sci­ Association. entists of the past were also Creationists, and many had interests in other occult Kelly, I.W. 1997. Modern astrology: A critique. Psychological Reports 81: areas as well (e.g., Newton and alchemy, Alfred Wallace with phrenology and spir­ 1035-1066. itualism, etc). The further irony is that while many early scientists (such as Kelly, I.W. 1998. Why astrology doesn't work. Psychological Reports Z2: 527-546. Ptolemy) and later scientists (Kepler) thought that much of astrology was Lillqvist, O., and M. Lindeman. 1998. Belief in astrology as a strategy for self- amenable to scientific scrutiny, most modern astrologers are likely to dismiss sci­ verification and coping with negative life-events. European Psychologist 3: entific research as irrelevant or peripheral. For example, a survey wirh a prominent 202-208. group of astrologers in the Netherlands found that "Most respondents think sci­ Mancns. R. and T. Trachet. 1998. Making Sense of /{strology. Amherst: entific research into die accuracy of astrology is senseless for diverging reasons of Prometheus Books. which none are shared by a majority" (van Asscm 1993,53). Articles in TMA and Myers, D.G. 1998. Psychology. (5th cd.). New York: Worth Pub. other astrology magazines suggest responses to the same question would be simi­ Nanninga. R 1997. The Astrotest: A tough match for astrologers. Correlation lar in other parts of die world. So while scientific findings and theories are rele­ 15: 14-20. vant to astrological chart construction and theorizing, die same methodology is Parker. D.S. 1998. Dog'Stars of the Zodiac The Mountain Astrologer 80:83-87. considered beside the point in investigating astrology itself. Russ, T. 1998. Intuition and astrology: Astrologers' Forum. The Mountain Astrologer80:93 9. The reader might examine the two introductory psychology textbooks Scofidd, B. 1998. Were they astrologers? Big-league sdeniists and astrology. by Myers (1998) and Wade and Tavris (1998) and compare them to any intro­ The Mountain Astrologer SO: 35-42. 122. ductory book on astrology. While the psychology textbooks incorporate Smit. R- 1997. Leo Knegt: A while crow beyond our wildest dreams? overviews of research, and engage the student in a critical discussion of ideas, Correlation 16: 3-18. introductions to astrology (as well as more advanced books for practicing Smit, R 1999. Results of the Knegt follow-up test. Correlation 17:5-7. astrologers) are devoid of a survey of the research findings on astrology, and Spencer. W. 1997. The history and psychology of Western astrology. Skeptical present incompatible positions (if at all) with little or no critical evaluation. Intelligencer 2: 3—13. (Also available at http://linm.mcc.Lik/-molcan7 10. The journal Correlation {Journal of Research into Astrology) was pub­ ASKE/siv2n2.html*astro). lished by the Astrological Association of Great Britain under die editorships of Trcbcmc, C 1998. Astrologers' forum. The Mountain Astrologer 80: 96, 122. Simon Best (1978 to 1993) and Rudolf Smit (1993 to eariy 1999). This jour­ Van Assem, I_ 1993. The astrologer's philosophy of life. Correlation 12: 52-54. nal under these editors was a model of scholarly research, publishing negative Vaughan, V. 1998. Debunking die debunkers: Lessons to be learned. The studies as well as positive studies. Healthy debate over essentials was also Mountain Astrologer 80: 35-42, 122. encouraged, to the chagrin of many of its astrologer readers. Wade, C, and C Tavris. 1998. Invitation to Psychology. New York: Longman 11. It docs not follow thai everything can be so easily explained away. For Publishing Group. example, the Dutch astrologer Leo Knegt (1882-1957) seems to have been able Zagar. T.P.D. 1998. Pisces full moon edipse-Septcmber 6. The Mountain to deliver the goods, at least quite a few times, when tested under tidy rigor­ Astrologer 80: 67. •

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER November/December 1999 43 The Physics Behind Four Amazing Demonstrations

Here is the physics theory behind four dramatic demonstrations—walking on broken glass, dipping one's fingers in molten lead, breaking a concrete block over someone lying between beds of nails, and picking up an orange-hot piece of silica tile.

DAVID G. WILLEY

have long been a firm believer that to teach anything effec­ tively, you have to first get the audiences attention and, Ipreferably, their interest. This belief stems from a personal experience I had early in my physics career. For the first year that I studied physics, at an English grammar school, my teacher regularly stood up in front of the class and talked to, or rather at, the students for about fifty minutes, nonstop. I soon got very bored with this class, coming close to failing it. The next year, because of a move brought on by a change in my fathers career, I attended a different school. My new physics teacher made liberal use of demonstrations when he taught, often with a dramatic flair. This got our attention. This made physics fun, exciting, and real to us. We could see

44 November/December 1999 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER what it was being applied to. I've been interested in physics ever example of the Leidenfrost effect in action. However, it is not since, and especially in dramatic demonstrations. In this article quite the same situation as when a drop of water is lifted up and I describe the physics behind four of the more dramatic demon­ hence somewhat insulated from a very hot skillet by the steam strations that I now do on occasion for my physics classes: walk­ formed beneath it. Before dipping one's fingers in molten lead, ing on a bed of broken glass, having a concrete block broken on the hand is dipped in a bowl of water. Then the drops are shaken me while lying sandwiched between two beds of nails, dipping off and die hand dipped quickly in and out of the lead. I usu­ my fingers in molten lead, and picking up an orange-hot piece ally dip die first seven or eight centimeters of my fingers. Heat of space shutde tile. from die lead goes into evaporating the water and hence not into burning the hand, and the Walking on Broken Glass resulting steam layer insulates the hand. For this demonstration the glass bot­ tles should first be soaked in water to If we suppose diat die fingers of remove any paper labels. An alterna­ one hand have a total surface area of tive is to use Mason jars. It is best to about 100 square cm, dien a layer of use fairly large bottles so that die water 0.1 mm diick would require 2600 J of heat to warm it from 20°C pieces formed will have only a gende to 100°C and then to boil it at curve to them. When breaking the 100°C. This would mean diat even bottles I place them in a canvas sack if the lead were to cool by 200°C, and use a hammer, being sure to wear the amount cooled would need to be gloves and eye protection. The glass 100 grams, which would entail a should be broken into fairly small layer almost a millimeter in thick­ pieces. The bed for the glass may be ness. The specific heat of lead is rel­ made from half-inch-thick plywood atively small when compared to die framed by pieces of 2"x4" wood. specific heat—and more impor­ Once die glass has been poured into tantly the latent heat—of water. the bed it should be spread out to a uniform depth. Any piece that has a It is very important when doing right-angled bend in it, where die diis demonstration that die lead be sidewall of die botde meets the base, heated well above its melting point is moved to the edges of the bed so of 327.5°C. Having lead solidify on David Willey breaking a concrete block over jay Leno on The Jomghi one's fingers is not pleasant. When that only relatively flat pieces of glass Snow. (All photos by the author) arc included in die center of the bed the molten lead is hot enough, about where die walking takes place. As an extra precaution, I cover die 200°C hotter than its melting point, a gold-colored film will glass widi a cloth and dien use a large cast iron skillet to pound form on its surface. It is a good idea to have well-trimmed fin­ the surface firmly. This ensures no points of glass are sticking up. gernails so that no lead gets beneath them, although I have seen This is usually done before die audience enters the room. A bed the demonstration done twice by women widi long painted fin­ of glass about 8 cm (three inches) deep seems best, as this pro­ gernails, apparendy widiout damage or injury. Should die lead vides sufficient depth for die glass to be able to shift and settle contain impurities, or for other reasons form a dross on die sur­ somewhat as a foot is planted slowly and direcdy down upon it. face, this should be cleaned off using a spoon fastened to a When done this way the pieces of glass lay fairly flat and no edge wooden handle. I find that the density of die lead makes a presses perpendicularly against the sole. The bottom of die foot stronger impression on those who perform this demonstration has some give to it and conforms to the shallow curve of the glass than its temperature. Remember diat lead should only be pieces. This is similar to a sharp knife being pressed with die flat melted where diere is adequate ventilation. of die blade against one's flesh, where considerable force may be used without injury. When walking I place each foot slowly, Bed of Nails and Breaking a Concrete Block moving it elsewhere if a point or edge is felt, aldiough diat is sel­ Having a concrete block broken on your chest while lying sand­ dom necessary if the bed has been prepared correcdy. Care must wiched between two beds of nails usually elicits diree different be taken to brush off any pieces of glass that stick to die bottom of the feet when stepping off the bed. David Willey is a pfrysics instructor at the University of Pittsburgh To show diat die edges of the glass are sharp I use a piece at Johnstown, a member of the board of the Pennsylvania Science from die bed to cut die string suspending a bowling ball about Teachers Association, and one of the current world record holders a half meter (two feet) above the floor. for the longest firewalk. His traveling physics show has been seen by about 50,000 students and he is the "resident mad scientist "on Dipping Fingers in Molten Lead The Tonight Show with Jay Leno. His Web site home page may Dipping one's fingers in molten lead is usually cited as being an be found at www.pitt.edu/-dwilley/bio.htmL

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER November/December 1999 45 questions: Why one can lie on the bed of nails, what happens to over any other exposed areas. the kinetic energy of the hammer, and what happens to the momentum of the hammer? The reason that one can lie on die Picking Up a Piece of Orange-hot Space Tile bed of nails has to do with the difference between force and The hot tile demonstration illustrates the difference between pressure. The nails are spaced about two centimeters apart, and temperature and heat. Small sample pieces of tile from the space hence when 1 lie flat a sufficient number of them support me shuttle are occasionally obtainable from the Lockheed Missiles such mat no one nail has to press on my and Space Company. If such a piece is body particularly hard. I would esti­ heated using a Bunsen burner or mate that for the bed of nails I use, propane torch until it is orange hot made from a thousand nails, at least (about 1,000°C), it may be picked up by 150 nails support my 150 lb. weight. the edges a few seconds after the heat So even if my weight is not quite evenly source is removed. distributed, no nail pushes on me with Several factors contribute to why this much more than 2.5 lbs. of force and may be done. The basic raw material for that is not uncomfortable. The bed I the tile is 99.7% pure silica, which has use is made from aluminum gutter low heat capacity and an extremely small spikes, and as purchased the points of thermal conductivity (approximately 5 these are somewhat blunted. This is J/cm.hr.°C.) Holding the tile by the done by the manufacturer so that the edges puts the fingers in contact with spikes will not split a wooden board if the part of the tile that has cooled the driven into one. This does make for a most in the few seconds since the tile more comfortable bed than if sharper was heated. It also provides only a small steel nails are used. Particular care needs area of contact, which can be changed if to be taken when getting on and off the the tile is to be held for more than a few bed, and I have seen side rails added to seconds. a bed to aid in this procedure. An analogy may be made between When the concrete block is broken, heat flowing from the tile and water the kinetic energy of the sledgehammer flowing from a hose pipe. Although goes into causing the blocks destruc­ the temperature difference between tion, ultimately warming the pieces, the tile and the hand, analogous to the and the momentum of the hammer is pressure difference between inside and passed through the prone person to the outside the hose, may be large, if the earth. The person swinging the sledge cross section of the hose is very small, hammer needs to hit the block with analogous to the very small thermal sufficient force to shatter it, but not so conductivity of the tile, then the rate hard that the hammer has a significant of water flow from the hose, analogous amount of energy left after the initial to the flow of heat from the tile to the impact. It is quite possible for an adult hand, will still only be small. A small to hit the block too hard, as I found out piece of tile seen from close up works when an enthusiastic and strong gym best, as it is very difficult to heat a teacher hit a block as hard as he could. large piece uniformly unless the heat­ ing is done in an oven capable of tem­ All the breath was knocked from me peratures in excess of 1,000°C. If a and I had a matrix of puncture wounds suitable oven, such as a ceramics kiln, on my chest and back. A tetanus shot is available, a dramatic photograph saw me fine mat day, and since then may be taken of a person holding a only my wife breaks the block. She piece of the tile in a darkened room, David Willey walking on broken glass practiced just breaking blocks on the the only illumination for rhe picture being the tile's incan­ ground many times before breaking them descence. The dead layer of skin on the fingertips is generally on me. Three-seaion blocks should be placed lengthwise on the fairly thick, on the order of half a millimeter or so, and is also top board whereas two-section blocks are best stood on end. I a poor heat conductor. Many of the same principles apply to prefer two- section blocks as they shatter nicely. someone firewalking, where the feet, ash, and coals are poor The small pieces fly with force and must be guarded conductors and the time of contact is short. against. Also, the end pieces of the concrete block do tend to fall off the top bed of nails. Hence it is advisable to wear a These demonstrations can be dangerous; do not try them at face mask as well as safety goggles, hold your forearms over home. If due care is exercised, however, each is relatively harm­ your face, and have other protection, such as a board placed less and guaranteed to grab attention. O

46 November/December 1999 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER Another Lunar Effect Put to Rest

Thirty years ago, published reports suggested that plants could grow better on lunar "soil" than they could on terrestrial soils. A series of experimental errors, reporting errors, and omissions led to this conclusion. Previously unpublished data easily explain the reported effects.

HAVEN SWEET

his article is long overdue. It has been written in my mind hundreds of times, only to be displaced by Tmore pressing activities. I eventually convinced myself that people had forgotten the claims made after man first landed on the Moon, claims that attributed very unusual properties to the Moon. My complacency changed while listening to one of the many twenty-fifth anniversary tributes to the first lunar landing. (Now the thirtieth anniversary has passed, in July 1999, and I can wait no longer.) I heard a former NASA offi­ cial refer to the quarantine testing and indicate that there was one significant result: that plants had been shown to grow better on Moon dust than they did on Earth soil.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER November/December 1999 47 This statement thrust me back to my days with the space look at how these results came to be, and how the myth grew. program, a time when similar statements were made with lit­ tle regard for the facts. At that time, the press was hungry for Background of Plant Quarantine Testing news. The excitement of the lunar landing still held the pub­ As part of the trip to the Moon, NASA was required to deter­ lic interest in everything dealing with space. The spotlight was mine if "lunar organisms" existed, and if so, whether they on NASA, and some used this opportunity to present specula­ posed a threat to Earth. Although we now recognize the Moon tion as fact, speculation that might partially justify the mission as a very inhospitable place for life, before the first landing, to the Moon. Reporters sought people who would give the some people feared that life might exist in sequestered loca­ best quotes, and these statements were often published with­ tions. The lunar quarantine provided time to evaluate whether out question. such organisms existed, and whether they could infect plants At that time, I was intimately involved with the Lunar or animals. Quarantine, a program established to determine if lunar soil Introduction of organisms into new environments has resulted in countless environmental disasters; chestnut blight, Dutch elm disease, Plants fare OK in lunar soil and the fatal spread of European diseases among American natives Moon Dust Acting As Moon Dust Treatment are but a few examples. Thus, the lunar material was contained in Fertilizer on Plants Makes Plants Thrive isolation chambers while being Moon Dust tested on plants and animals. The Plants Amaze Scientists test organisms were then monitored Growing in Moon Soil Is Nutrient for signs of infection by putative lunar To Plants pathogens. Figure 1. A sampling of headlines touting lunar soil. Realizing there was little chance of alien life forms on the Moon, our might be harmful to Earth organisms. I was responsible for botanical group decided to also determine if lunar material testing the lunar material on plants and helped develop many could be used for plant growth. Since any lunar settlements of the experimental procedures used during the first few lunar would grow plants for food and oxygen, it was important to sample returns. know if the abundant lunar dust could physically support, or In addition, I was responsible for data collection and analy­ provide some nutritional benefit to, the plants. Not having to sis during the early missions. It was here that the problems ship plant nutrients from Earth would provide significant sav­ began. Although the experiments yielded results that were ings. fairly unambiguous, they were reinterpreted to imply much greater significance than was warranted. It was frustrating to Testing Procedures watch as unfounded statements to the press were eventually incorporated in a manuscript published in the respected scien­ The plant experiments involved testing thirty-one species, tific publication Bioscience. which were exposed either as actively growing plants, seedlings Thus, I am obliged to set the record straight concerning that had just germinated, intact plants grown on artificial those aspects of which I have first-hand knowledge. I think media, or isolated tissues on artificial media. Some species readers of the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER will appreciate seeing how were given normal fertilizers, while others received only a few a combination of errors, some misrepresentation, and a large of the required nutrients. Because of the lack of nutrients, it dose of wishful thinking resulted in these conclusions that might be possible to determine if the plants "mine" the neces­ plants grew better on lunar soil than on Earth soils. sary elements from the lunar material, just as is done in Earth There is danger in allowing this myth go unchallenged. The soils. belief tJiat die Moon possesses unusual and highly positive In almost every case, plants were given one of four dif­ properties could erroneously justify return missions. In addi­ ferent treatments: tion, some people may note the absence of further publica­ 1) exposure directly to lunar material (this was the exper­ tions dealing with this "lunar effect" and conclude that some imental treatment) sort of conspiracy caused the silence. What is needed is a clear 2) exposure to lunar material that had been heat- sterilized (to serve as a control for the possibility of a toxic Haven Sweet is Associate Dean of Arts and Sciences, University of lunar element) Central Florida, Orlando, FL 32816. E-mail [email protected]. 3) exposure to a sterilized sample of pulverized Earth During the Apollo program he was intimately involved with the rock that simulated the lunar soil (to control for effects lunar quarantine program and the testing of lunar material on caused by small particles) plants. 4) unexposed plants (as a general control)

48 November/December 1999 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER The amount of material exposed to each plant was typically Scientific Publication very small, being only a maximum of 0.22 grams per plant or The plant quarantine results appeared most prominently in culture. For comparison, this is the amount of material that 1, would fit in bottom half of a Bioscience. Unfortunately, this manuscript did nothing to cor­ 22 mm bullet casing (in fact, rect earlier allegations that this was the dispensing scoop). plant growth had been stimu­ lated by the lunar material; To prevent escape of any radier, these conclusions were putative lunar organisms to the repeated, and incomplete or outside world, all experiments were performed in sealed, gas- misleading data were presented tight cabinets. The amount of to support them. A careful space available to perform reading of the paper should experiments was minimal, the have raised some warning flags number of replicate samples (and did alert some of the was far below what was needed reviewers) since there were sig­ for statistical significance, the nificant omissions and discrep­ ability to manipulate the plants ancies. was very limited, and measure­ With this background, let Figure 2. Liverwort cultures. Those on the top were exposed to lunar material while ments had to be made the bottom cultures were untreated, (originally published in BioScience. vol. 20, us review the actual experi­ remotely through the cabinet #24. p. 1301. O1970 American Institute of Biological Sciences) ments, the claims based on windows. In addition, none of die plant materials could be them, and my interpretation of the same. sacrificed during the experiment, prohibiting tissue removal, chemical extraction, or dry-weight measurements. Liverwort Studies—Presented Results Perhaps the most dramatic effect of lunar material on plants Headlines appears in cultures of a primitive plant called a liverwort. The During the lunar missions, mission control in Houston was plant was grown on nutrient-containing agar in jars covered the focus of most news reporters, although the astronauts with a lid permeable to gas and light. As is readily apparent and the moon rocks were the primary story. The quarantine, from the photograph (figure 2), the cultures exposed to lunar on the other hand, was of little interest since the results were material (top row) were definitely larger than the untreated negative. Eventually, however, reporters were given informa­ cultures. Indeed, one administrator kept these cultures on his tion implying that the lunar material was at least a fertilizer, desk for months after the quarantine ended and showed them and perhaps something more. This revelation resulted in to visitors to the lab. headlines such as Plants Fare The published text states that the liverwort, grown "on OK in Lunar Soil,1 Moon modified Hudson's solid Dust Acting as Fertilizer on medium, grew several times Plants,' Moon Dust Treat­ larger and exhibited an enrich­ ment Makes Plants Thrive,' ment in pigmentation over Healthier Plants Shoot Up untreated controls." From Moondust Diet,4 and Although figure 2 shows Good for Plants: Synthetic five lunar-treated cultures Moon Dust Fertilizer.5 which were substantially larger, National attention seized there are several alternate die program when a NASA explanations of these differ­ official was quoted in Parade ences, and other data which magazine as saying "the cast doubt that this was an moondust plants were very effect caused by lunar material. clearly ahead of others in Figure 3 Gametophytes on the right side were on agar containing minimal nutn Liverwort Results— growth" and that the lunar ents. while those on the left grew directly on lunar material which was moistened by the agar solution. The color and size differences were very pronounced. Unconsidered Factors material is "not a fertilizer but you'd have to call it some kind of growth promoter." In addi­ First, only five of the ten lunar-treated cultures were selected tion, he went on to suggest that the moondust should be for display. I do not recall how selection was accomplished, but chemically analyzed and then artificially reproduced for com­ I had written in my notes that die selection was not random. mercial uses on Earth! I will not bother to comment further Second, the display ignores the other thirty cultures. on these articles except to note that some may have resulted Unfortunately, no data were presented to indicate whether die from unskeptical reporting, while others were caused by heat-treated lunar material also enhanced growth. This would unbridled enthusiasm of the persons being interviewed. be the expected if the lunar material stimulated growth.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER November/December 1999 49 Third, within the first days after inoculation, the cultures Furthermore, a repetition of the experiment during the sec­ were all photographed. Later, the subjective rating of each cul­ ond lunar landing quarantine (this time, properly randomized ture's size was made from these photographs, and the larger ar rhe start) showed no such enhancement of growth (table 2). size of lunar exposed plants was clearly present shortly after These unpublished data were available at the time the Bioscience inoculation (table 1). manuscript was being prepared, but were not included.

Seedling Elongation—Presented Results Exposure # of cultures observed to be: Larger Average Smaller Seed germination studies were cited as yielding another, appar­ ently stimulatory, effect. In these experiments, 100 seeds of Lunar 6 2 2 each species were placed on a nutrient-free cellulose medium Lunar heated 2 2 6 and exposed to one of each of the four treatments. Earth heated 3 0 7 The results published in Bioscience showed the average seedling height fifteen days after they were inoculated and Untreated 2 2 6 allowed to germinate. Table 1. The subjective evaluation of the siie of liverwort cultures, made vrithin three days after treatment with Apollo 11 material. Exposure # of cultures observed to be:

These unpublished data indicate that, early in the experi­ Larger Average Smaller ment, the cultures exposed to lunar material were larger than Lunar 2 0 8 average. Growth increases of this magnitude do not commonly Lunar heated 2 6 2 occur among plants within 48—72 hours of treatment, unless powerful growth regulators are used. In addition, any such Earth heated 2 3 4 enhancement would not abrupdy cease after a few days. Untreated 3 4 2

If this enhancement was a nutritional effect, all soil-treated Table 2. The subjective evaluation of liverworts. 32 days after initial treatment with cultures should show a benefit. However, the lunar sterilized Apollo 12 material. plants were almost identical to both the terrestrial soil and the Seedling Elongation—The Explanation untreated controls. Considering that the lunar material baked in intense solar radiation for approximately 4 billion years, a From table 3, it appears that, at least in the case of lettuce, sterilization treatment of sixteen hours at 150° C is unlikely to there is an enhancement of the seedling elongation, although alter the properties of the sample. none of the differences are statistically significant. The publi­ cation notes that the height "was slightly higher in lunar mate­ Liverwort Studies—The Explanation rial for three of the four species measured," although it neglects to mention the lack of statistical significance of this What caused these results? An error occurred during experi­ finding. mentation! Prior to the mission, all containers were main­ The perceptive reader, however, will notice that a control is tained in the isolation cabinets. Since some cultures grew omitted from the table; plants exposed to Earth heated mate­ poorly or developed infections, they were constantly evalu­ rial. This was an unfortunate omission, as can be seen from the ated and the unhealthy specimens replaced by new cultures. unpublished data in table 4. It is apparent that the Earth soil To facilitate this process, the cultures were arranged accord­ provided the greatest enhancement effect in all but the radish. ing to their overall size and health; the most vigorous on the Thus, while the lunar-exposed seedlings may have appeared top left, and the weakest on the bottom right. The worst cul­ longer when compared to nutrient-deprived seedlings (possi­ tures could then be quickly removed and fresh ones inserted bly a nutritional effect, most likely just normal variation in the appropriate hierarchy at any time prior to the start of caused by sampling), they were not as tall as plants grown on the experiment. pulverized terrestrial rocks. The technician performing this experiment was instructed to randomize the cultures prior to inoculation. However in his Fern Spore Growth—Presented Results excitement at handling the lunar soil, he forgot. The first cul­ tures exposed were the healthiest, and they all received the After fern spores germinate, they develop into flattened, heart- lunar material. The progressively smaller ones received steril­ shaped structures called gametophytes. According to the results ized lunar, then sterilized earth and finally, the last cultures section of the paper, "gametophytes developing in contact with were untreated. This explains the size differences, which were lunar materials grew. . . . approximately three times larger than noted almost from the start. plants not contacting the material." Unfortunately, the micro­ Even though the explanation for the apparent growth stim­ scopic size of the ferns, the way they were cultured, and the ulation was in hand, die photograph of selected culture vials requirement that they not be disturbed, made it impossible to was still widely disseminated as evidence of die stimulatory obtain quantitative data. However, when visually compared to effects of lunar material. spores which grew only on agar, all cultures showed a dramatic

50 November/December 1999 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER increase in size and greening when on, or directly adjacent to, were interpreted in the article's discussion section. In the any of the rock material. This growth enhancement appears to results section of the paper, the only reference to the tissue cul­ represent 3 significant finding (figure 3). tures is that localized necrosis (dying) "was observed following Since ferns are an early pioneer species (one of die first to challenge with either terrestrial or lunar material. This reaction colonize barren rocks after volcanic eruptions or other cata­ did not persist and was followed by an increased growth and strophic events), it would be logical to assume that the pigmentation after 2 weeks." No data were presented, but the enhancement was the result of a nutritional effect. That is, die statement implies that both terrestrial and lunar treatments plants "mined" the rock particles to provide chemical elements which are missing in the rest of Exposure Height of seedlings the media. Cabbage Lettuce Radish Spinach Spores are only a single cell and, unlike seeds, do not have a large reserve of nutrients to sustain Lunar 18.3 19.4 22.5 22.3 them during die first few weeks of life. Plants Lunar heated 16.9 19.7 24.8 24.8 need at least seventeen different elements as nutri­ Untreated 16.7 16.0 24.2 21.7 ents; some are required in large quantities, while Table 3. Height (mm) of seedlings 15 days after germination in the presence of Apollo 11 lunar others are needed only in trace amounts. If an ele­ material. ment is lacking, the result is poor growth, abnor­ mal development, or death. responded similarly. According to the Bioscience article, nutritional supplemen­ In the discussion section, these results were at first summa­ tation by the soil could not be the explanation since "every rized as "certain tissue cultures dusted with a thin layer of attempt was made to provide each species widi optimum lev­ lunar material benefited by this treatment." Then the discus­ els of major and minor elements." sion became even bolder by saying that "the addition of lunar material. . .. caused marked increase in growth of these cul- Fern Spores—The Explanation Exposure Height of seedlings Contrary to die above statement, the growth Spinach media did not provide any of the minor elements. Cabbage Lettuce Radish The ferns were grown on Knops solution, which Lunar 18.3 19.4 22.5 22.3 contains only seven of the seventeen required ele­ Lunar heated 16.9 19.7 24.8 24.8 ments normally provided by soils. This would be Earth heated 23.2 31.3 21.8 29.2 like providing a human with protein, fats, and carbohydrates, but no vitamins or minerals. Untreated 16.7 16.0 24.2 21.7 Thus, it is understandable that spores grew Table 4. Same as Table 3, but with the missing data included. better on pulverized rock than on the nutrient-poor agar. Although not stated, the ferns growing on terrestrial soils tures." This eventually led to the speculation that tobacco tis­ also exhibited enhanced growth. Although their color initially sue cultures were secreting acids that dissolve the lunar mater­ lagged behind that of the plants on lunar material, after two ial. Not bad for a necrotic reaction! months of growth the Earth-treated plants developed the col­ oration of the lunar-treated plants. The astute reader may notice that die results presented in Tissue Culture Growth—Actual Data table 5 of the Bioscience paper are incomplete. The lunar- The omission of any of the data for tissue cultures is interest­ heated treatment of Onoclea sensibilis is missing. However, in ing since there were subjective evaluations of the cultures avail­ this case die explanation is mundane; there were no data able. Nineteen days after exposure because the treatment had been to the materials, die cell masses were omitted for this species. Exposure Subjective Score (1-12) subjectively rated from 1 to 12, Day 2 Day 19 based on dieir overall health and Tissue Culture Growth— Lunar 10.9 7.9 vigor (pigmentation, texture, lack of Reported Results Lunar heated 11.4 7.9 necrosis and growth). These previ­ Nine different species of plants were ously unpublished data (table 5) Earth heated 11.6 7.2 raised as tissue cultures and exposed show, even without statistical analy­ to the soils. Small pieces of plants Untreated 11.5 8.9 sis, that there was no stimulatory were provided with nutrients and Table S. Average of 10 replicates each of 7 species maintained in effect of the soils. In fact, it is appar­ hormones in an agar substrate. The tissue culture. Apollo 11 data. ent that all the cultures declined plant cells would typically grow as a mass of tissue within the during the experiment (an expected result since the cultures enclosing jar. were not provided with fresh media), and that the untreated It is interesting to see how the results of these experiments cultures had the highest score.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER November/December 1999 51 Summary ments by other researchers uncover the truth, and the incor­ rect conclusions are relegated to a footnote. The quarantine 1 have limited my observations to that research which 1 per­ testing, however, was one of a kind. It is unfortunate that the sonally observed or participated in, and for which the origi­ interpretation of the results has added to the mythology sur­ nal data still exist. I am not disputing later, more carefully rounding the Moon. reported experiments which pursued some of these early findings. Notes When data are omitted from a manuscript, readers tend to assume the author omitted insignificant information to con­ 1. Maloney. J. The Houston Poll, section 1, Jan. 24, 1970. 2. Cohen, V. Los Angeles Times-Washington Post News Service, 1969. serve space. However, this is not always the case. The history 3. Cohen, V. Boston Globe, p. 29, August 31, 1969. of science is filled with examples of wishful thinking that led 4. UPI. Houston Chronicle, section 2, p. 3, March 29, 1970. to unsupported conclusions: canals on Mars, polywater, and 5. Parade, January 4, 1970. 6. Walkinshaw, C, H. Sweet, S. Venketeswaran. and W. Home. Results of cold fusion are just a few. Apollo 11 and 12 Quarantine Studies on Plants. Bioscience. Vol. 20. #24. In most scientific study, subsequent repetitions of experi­ 1297-1302. 1970. D

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52 November/December 1999 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER BOOK REVIEWS

Gould's Separate 'Magisterial Two Views We present two independent and contrasting reviews of Stephen Jay Gould's latest hook Rocks of Ages. —The Editor

Rocks of Ages: Science and Religion in the Fullness of Life. By Stephen Jay Gould. The Library of Contemporary Thought. The Ballantine Publishing Group, New York, 1999. ISBN: 0-345-430009-3. 241 pp., Hardback, $18.95.

MARK W. This book rests on a basic, uncomplicated premise that sets MASSIMO my table of contents and order of procedure, and that DURM requires restatement at several points in the logic of my PIGLIUCCI argument: NOMA is a simple, humane, rational, and (he quotation in die altogether conventional argument for mutual respect, me make two tilings et i based on non-overlapping subject matter, between two inset is an excellent cleaclc r at the outset, components of wisdom in a full human life: our drive to T;descriptio n of this Lbeforf e I get accused of fascinating book by Stephen understand the factual character of nature (the magis- being a Gould-basher or a Jay Gould. Gould proposes terium of science), and our need to define meaning in our rabid atheist. I am neither. "an eminently sensible solu­ lives and a moral basis for our actions (the magisterium Stephen J. Gould is a col­ tion to die nonproblem of of religion). league whom I admire, agree supposed conflict between with, disagree with, and who science and religion." I —Stephen Jay Gould, sometimes just overdoes it. think not only that all scien­ Rocks of Ages An atheist 1 am, but not a tists and religious leaders rabid one. I don't wish to should read it but also lay start holy wars against reli­ people, school teachers, gion and I have an active dis­ Sunday school teachers, and counselors taste only for the fundamentalist-in- 1 Or CONTEMPaWAlf THO to name just a few. Gould writes that your-face-l-have-to-legislate-your-life even though his "sensible solution" is kind. However, that does not mean that supported by most major thinkers in I will refrain from engaging in a frank both science and religion, it is usually KA discussion of die topic. resisted and poorly comprehended. Gould's latest book, Rocks of Ages, is Gould, in his lucid and lively manner, STEPHEN JAY extremely disappointing. Simply put, explains why. and with the exception of one chapter to To begin with, Gould believes this GOULD which 1 will later return, its a badly writ­ supposed conflict exists in people's ROCKS ten, condescending, and misleading minds and social practices, not in the book. That Rocks of Ages is badly written logic or functioning of these "entirely OF is recognizable by many symptoms, chief different, and, equally vital, subjects." AGES among them are the numerous paren­ He proffers diat people of good will thetical statements that take several Sciata and Rtlijjioii want to see religion and science at peace Continued on page 55 together and for both to enrich, enliven. in dr Fullness uf Lifc Continued on page 54 Massimo Pigliucci is an associate professor in the Departments of Botany and of Mark Durm is a professor of psychology at Ecology and Evolutionary Biology at the Athens State University, Athens, Alabama. University of Tennessee in Knoxville.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER November/December 1999 53 BOOK REVIEWS

MARK W. DURM and defends NOMA. He writes that Warfare of Science with Theology in from page 53 since die two realms of science and reli­ Christendom. Draper's text was strongly and enhance people's existence. Gould gion cannot fuse, each of us must inte­ anti-Catholic, anti-Rome. What better offers the analogy of the human body grate them into a coherent view of life way, thought Draper, to weaken the that requires both food and sleep, "the with the result of something "more pre­ Vatican's hold than to say the Catholic proper care of any whole must call upon cious than rubies"—wisdom. This inte­ church believed in a flat world, and sci­ disparate contributions from indepen­ gration into a coherent whole requires ence had proved them wrong. dent parts." equal status for each, but the religion A more recent historic struggle for described here need not be formal, but The proper care of the whole is NOMA is modern creationism. may instead be a magisterium of moral NOMA, or Non-Overlapping Magi- Creationism provides an "example of ethics and meaning. steria. Gould carefully explains that the the principle that all apparent struggles term magisteria is nor akin to majesty or Further in chapter two, Gould sum­ between science and religion really arise majestic but instead is defined as a marizes the first commandment for from violations of NOMA, when a "domain where one form of teaching NOMA: "Thou shalt not mix the mag­ small group allied to one magisterium holds appropriate tools for meaningful isteria by claiming that God directly tries to impose its irrelevant and illegiti­ discourse and resolution." That is, peo­ ordains important events in die history mate will upon the other's domain." ple debate and exchange dialogue of nature by special interference know- This affront to NOMA is, however, under a magisterium. Even though the able only through revelation and not purely American. Gould reveals that in magisteria of science and religion do accessible to science"—that is, a miracle. most pans of the world the belief in evo­ not overlap, even though one studies Writes Gould: lution and the belief in religion do not the age of rocks while the other pro­ NOMA is no wimpish, wallpapering, preclude each other. Furthermore, even claims the rock of ages, even though superficial device .. . NOMA is a in America, "creation science" has only one pursues knowledge of how the proper and principled solution— come to the forefront in the latter half of based on sound philosophy. . . . heavens go while the other of how to go the twentieth-century. For example, NOMA is tough-minded. NOMA Gould's own high school textbook. to heaven (paraphrasing Gould here); forces dialogue and respectful dis­ both can be independent, can be course about different primary com­ Modern Biology, published in 1956, had NOMA, and yet still contribute to the mitments. NOMA does not say "I'm as its frontispiece a picture of a bunch of essence of life of the whole person. Is OK, you're OK—so let's just avoid beavers. The 1921 edition of die same any talk about science and religion." not the whole worth more than the text had Charles Darwin as its fron­ sum of its parts? Section three describes "Historical tispiece. In the first section titled "The Reasons for Conflict" and its content is The last section is tided "Psycho­ Problem Stated," Gould passionately enlightening. Gould documents that logical Reasons for Conflict," and exam­ writes of Charles Darwin and presents a prior to Columbus most scholars, even ines mankind's longing for a caretaker, picture of this man that few know. He Christian scholars, believed that Earth for an explainer, for reason. Gould writes of Darwin's despair at the death was round. Why then the flat Earth writes "... we live in a vale of tears, and of his young daughter Annie. And even problem? Well, according to Gould, we dierefore clutch at any proffered though he permanently lost a personal there was not a flat Earth problem prior comfort of an encompassing sort, how­ belief in a caring God, he did not to 1870 in America, but after 1880 ever dubious the logic and however con­ become hostile toward religion nor did almost all history texts featured the trary the evidence." he try to impose his belief upon others. problem! It was this time, roughly People strive for a God that provides Why? Because Gould argues that between 1870 to 1880, that warfare warm, fuzzy feelings but, Gould Darwin "understood the difference between science and religion started in explains, mankind may have to setde for between factual questions with universal America and became a guiding dieme a cold bath. Where is die warm feeling answers under the magisterium of sci­ for Western history. That is, science was for the ichneumonid wasp that paralyzes ence [as compared to] moral issues that gaining and religion (particularly a caterpillar, injects her eggs inside it, each person must resolve for himself." Catholicism) was retreating. According and whose larvae from the hatched eggs That is, die magisteria do not overlap, to Gould, two nineteenth-century slowly eat the living, paralyzed caterpil­ die "causes of life's history could not authors, John William Draper and lar from the inside? Where is the warm resolve the riddles of life's meaning." Andrew Dickson White, started die feeling for children who die needlessly? Darwin knew this, accepted it, and went war—Draper widi his History of the Gould responds that nature is not on to live a happy life. Conflict Between Religion and Science immoral, it is amoral; it's better to be in published in 1874 and White with his In the second section, "The Problem a cold bath than no bath at all. 1896 publication A History of the Resolved in Principle," Gould defines Gould concludes by discussing two

54 November/December 1999 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER BOOK REVIEWS false paths to irenics (irenic comes from "politically correct" one, that is, conflict the most distinctively human field of the Greek word for "peace"). Gould will never generate between science and talk. To close with a rationale from each magisterium, scientists gener­ religion because the two should not talk firmly believes that two current attempts ally argue that language represents at bridging science and religion are mis­ to each other. Gould admits there can be the most special and transforming fits. The first is the syncratic school of no conflict where there is no discus­ feature of human distinctiveness— thought, that science and religion can sion—but then, nothing is ever resolved and only a dolt would fail to lead either! with his best weapon. As for reli­ fuse as one big, happy family. The syn­ gion, this book began with [a story cratic school believes the findings of sci­ In ending, it is Gould's hope that all from] John's gospel. ... I do know, ence support and "validate the precepts people of good will, who hold science, of course, that the phrase bears of religion, and where God shows his religion, or both, dear will recognize the another meaning in its original con­ logically sound, humanely sensible, and text, but John also acknowledged the hand (and mind) in the workings of same precious uniqueness—the key nature." Gould believes the syncratic civil manner of NOMA. He writes in to resolving our conflicts, and the path will eventually lead to the same the last paragraph of the book: positive force behind NOMA—in country where the Sun revolves around starting his gospel with a true guide The non-overlapping magisteria of to salvation: In the beginning was the Earth. science and religion must greet each the Word. The second false irenic path is the other with respect and interest on

MASSIMO PIGLIUCCI of science, including burning at the stake connection with the science-religion from page 53 scores of "heretics" whose empirical find­ debate, sometimes (as Richard Dawkins sentences, in many cases starting in the ings or philosophical theories trod on recently remarked) the truth simply can­ middle of a page and continuing all the ground already claimed by religious not be found in the middle. While the way into the following one (e.g., pp. dogma. But Gould seems to be reading golden mean surely appeals to contem­ 7-8), and the equally obnoxiously long history in a very original way. For exam­ porary political correctness, Gould him­ footnotes (e.g., p. 55-57). As if that ple, he thinks that Galileo is really to self repeatedly opposes such Solomonic were not enough, two sections of the blame for his misfortunes, because he was solutions in the case of creationism: he book are reprints not from previously not politically savvy enough to know certainly does not want creationism and published essays, but from previously how much he could push Pope Urban evolution taught side by side in public published chapters of books that were in VII (pp. 71-74). Gould calls this "one schools (pp. 123-150). turn collections of essays! As for conde­ defining historical accident," as if it were One of Gould's most maddening logi­ scension, I cannot find another word to an exception to an otherwise reasonable cal fallacies in this book is the recurrent describe an atheist who keeps using the history of conduct on the pan of the citation of individual scientists who locution "Lord knows" (e.g., p. 163) or Catholic Church. Assuming that Galileo espoused one version or another of uses self-effacing sentences like "I pre­ did miscalculate his own influence on the NOMA. Chief among them, of course, sent nothing original ... while perhaps religious authorities, this is an argument was Charles Darwin (pp. 191-207). In a claiming some inventiveness in choice of in favor of scientists hiring lobbyists and famous passage concerning the perceived illustrations" (p. 3). lawyers, not a gem in science-religion adieistic implications of natural selection But the misleading argument central relationships. he wrote: "I feel most deeply that die to the book represents the real problem. One of Gould's reasons for support­ whole subject is too profound for the It is that science and religion are not in ing NOMA is his uncritical application human intellect. A dog might as well conflict, and the reason is purported to of Aristotle's "golden mean." The idea, speculate on the mind of Newton." be NOMA, or Non-Overlapping of course, is that sometimes the truth can Perhaps this is a great example of Darwin's Magisteria. This is an old idea that be found in the middle between two humility (perhaps not, since the historical Gould has repackaged with a fancy extreme views. Gould calls as his witness record clearly shows that he was much label. It basically says that "Science cov­ the English essayist G.K. Chesterton, more canny and politically savvy than ers the empirical realm ... religion well known for such nonsensical phrases most people think—see E. Caudill, extends over questions of ultimate as "art is limitation; the essence of every Darwinian Myths, 1997). Regardless, it is meaning and moral value" (p. 6). Since picture is the frame" (I wonder what equally easy to round up very respectable the two areas of inquiry are so neady would happen if suddenly art museums scientists who dare to make a direct con­ separated, argues Gould, why all the fuss would decide to overcome their limita­ nection between science and unbelief about a "supposed conflict" (p. 3)? tions, hang frames, and get rid of pic­ (about 95 percent of the "great scientists" Well, for one thing, because such con­ tures). While I have a hard time follow­ interviewed in a 1998 survey—see E. J. flict can be traced throughout the history ing Gould's logic here and seeing the Larson and L Witham, Leading scientists

SKEPTI M. INQUIRER November/December 1999 55 BOOK REVIEWS

still reject God, Nature 394:313—and Perhaps the only valuable part of the predict the Second Coming. Gould also their article in the September 1999 book is the very last section of the last does not seem to realize that the kind of Scientific American). The logical validity chapter, where Gould convincingly syncretism that he so effectively tears of a position simply cannot be decided by demolishes other attempts to reconcile down, togethet with the creationist ver­ majority rule, which—once again—is science and religion. He calls these "the sion of religion dominating science that exactly why we don't teach creationism in syncretic school," referring to the idea he rightly despises even more, are American public schools. that science and religion actually exactly what the overwhelming major­ There are several intrinsic reasons describe the same unified reality and ity of people think of when they think why NOMA does not hold water. First, will eventually converge toward one of religion and reality. A few sophists it is not true that (most) religions do not grand unified dieory of knowledge. The and intellectuals are the only ones play­ make claims about the natural world. Templeton Foundation is a generous ing with more esoteric versions of reli­ Besides die tens of millions of people source of funding for science-religion gion for which the conflict with science who believe the Earth is 6,000 years old, syncretism (their prize for the advance­ may be remote or nonexistent. the Bible was never meant as a book of ment of religion is more hefty than the In the end, the major reason for a metaphors. It is read that way by Nobel). Gould lashes out at the fundamental conflict between science enlightened Christians today precisely Foundation for sponsoring conferences and religion was highlighted honesdy because of the long battle between sci­ in which all sorts of bizarre arguments and in a straightforward manner by ence and religion, with the latter con­ are used to achieve the ultimate science- physicist Richard Feynman. In The stantly on the losing side. Second, it is religion fusion. For example, physicist Meaning of It All (WW), he says that it not true that religion is the only, or even F. Russell Stannard suggested that the boils down to a matter of attitude. a viable, quest for ethics. In fact, it is not "mystery" of the dual nature of Jesus Regardless of what the goal of the a quest at all, since it is based on arbi­ (human and divine) can be "under­ inquiry is, science fosters doubt and trary sets of rules and on die enforce­ stood" in terms of quantum electrody­ investigation based on empirical evi­ ment of dogmas. Philosophy, using the namics (QED), as equivalent to the dence; religion, on the other hand, is tools of logic and infotmed by the dis­ particle-wave nature of light. The good based on dogma and revelation. It is coveries of science, seems to me a much professor conveniently neglected to hard to see how those attitudes can log­ better candidate for that magisterium. specify how QED field equations could ically coexist in the same brain.

better understood place. Of Stories and Statistics Paulos writes wittily. The reader MARK DURM must be on his or her proverbial toes to once get the full effect of Paulos s intelligence. upon a He writes of ordering an extra medium number Once Upon A Number: The Hidden Mathematical Logic of ice cream, he mentions Keillot's Stories. By John Allen Paulos. Basic Books, New York, Woebegone Effect in which everybody is 1998. ISBN 0465-05158-8. 214 pp.. Hardback, $23. above average, and he describes young Shepsel, the neighborhood's perfect "An integration of stories and statis­ tellers in particular. It is a contest both sharpshooter (Shepsel shoots first, and tics, or more generally, of the literary should win" [italics mine]. then he draws the target around the bul­ and the scientific, can be energizing. " Paulos informs the reader in a let hole). He discusses the "belly-shaped detailed, yet sometimes humorous, man­ curve" and gives a good logical proba­ nd John Allen Paulos does just ner in which bodi storytellers and statis­ bilistic explanation for Murphy's Law diat in diis educational and ticians can win in describing our world. by using socks (yes, socks). Another Aentertaining book—he energizes He reminds us that when you listen to example of Murphy's Law Paulos the reader to fill the gap between stories stories you want to suspend disbelief to explains is the "waiting time paradox," and statistics, between narratives and be entertained, whereas in evaluating sta­ how delays in supermarket lines and numbers, between tales and truth. Writes tistics you are inclined to suspend belief doctors' offices are caused by mathemat­ Paulos, "Describing the world may be so as not to be beguiled. And yet if the ical variation, not some cosmic malevo­ thought of as an Olympic contest gap between the two can be bridged, if lence. Furthermore, he explains how between simplifiers—scientists in gen­ people can find the hidden mathematical eral, statisticians in particular—and com- logic of stories, and if narratives can be Mark Durm is a professor of psychology at plicators—humanists in general, story- added to statistics, the world would be a Athens State University, Athens, Alabama.

56 November/December 1999 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER BOOK REVIEWS

you can become a "psychic" to your ded in a story that helps advance the of basing any political, spiritual, or sex­ friends by using cards. It is not a magic argument. He adds further diat when ual judgments on these contextless trick, but a mathematical trick using one understands die idea of freedom of numerological oddities." probabilistic coupling. expression, "It should not be measured Finally, Paulos believes that if people Paulos's greater contribution, how­ by how likely the average person is to be are comfortable with the insignificance ever, is not in explaining how numbers silenced, but by how likely someone of most coincidences (the statisticians) can be used in a comical way but instead with something to say is." or if they insist on always finding in a rational, logical way—a way in Paulos also notes how stories can meaning behind the coincidences (the which statistics can add to stories. misuse statistics. He relates how the storytellets), it reveals much about "Subjective viewpoints and objective collection and distribution of social sta­ their personality and world outlook. probabilities have at times a troubled tistics affects the quantities being mea­ Both, however, should contribute since relationship that resembles that between sured. For example, on religious surveys the integration of both can energize both. His concluding paragraph is informal discourse and formal logic," he people tend to overestimate their activ­ worth quoting in full: writes. "Applications of probability and ity while on sex surveys diey tend to statistics require a story, a context, or an underestimate it. Other abuses: the How we can maintain a place for the argument in order to make sense." He average American adult has one testicle individual, protected from the over­ weening claims of religion, society, says applying probability and statistics is and one ovary, and the average resident or even science, is an increasingly much more a matter of comprehending of Dade County, Florida, is born important unsolved problem. Its the situation, of creating informal argu­ Hispanic and dies Jewish. Paulos takes solution, I have no doubt, will ments, and of building comprehensive on the believers in the Bible codes by require simply and pragmatically accepting the indispensability of narratives than of substituting numbers offering a humorous Bill/Monica code both stories and statistics and of into formulas. For instance, he contends in the U.S. Constitution and a their nexus, the individual who uses that no matter how accurate the statis­ Roswell UFO code in a verse in the King and is shaped by both. The gap tics are on, say, affirmative action, to be James version of Genesis. He writes that between stories and statistics must be filled somehow by us. truly meaningful they must be imbed- "common sense underscores die inanity

they desire. Clear Thinking About Regarding the idea diat a group of clones could be created from die cells of Human Cloning an evil ruler. Pence points out one of the TERENCE HINES most misunderstood aspects of cloning. This is die belief diat a cloned individual would be genetically identical to die indi­ Who's Afraid of Human Cloning? By Gregory E. Pence. Rowman and Littlefield vidual from whom die cell nucleus was Publishers, Inc., Lanham, Maryland, 1998. ISBN 0-8476-8782-1 (pbk) 0-8476-8781- obtained. To make this point clear, it is 3 (hbk). 181 pp. Paperback $14.95, hardback $47.50. necessary to provide a bit of detail on how cloning is done. Basically, a cell (it need might be created by some ruthless war­ ho's Afraid of Human not be an egg) is obtained from a female lord. Or the possibility that rich indi­ Cloning? is die best thing and die nucleus of diat cell is removed. viduals might have themselves cloned, I've seen written about Then a nucleus from a cell from die indi­ but leave out the genes for the brain, so cloning since the birth of Dolly the vidual to be cloned is obtained and that they would have a spare parts cloned sheep in 1997. The vast majority inserted into die enucleated cell from the source. of post-Dolly writing on cloning, espe­ female. This now nucleated cell is placed cially in die nonscicntific press, has been Gregory Pence, a professor of philos­ in a uterus and allowed to implant and near-hysterical fear-mongering drivel. ophy at the University of Alabama in come to term. The individual generated Typically, commentators trot out die Birmingham, destroys such arguments in diis fashion will almost never be genet­ worst possible, and most unlikely, hor­ against human cloning. He argues ically identical to die individual who was rors diat tJiey tiiink (hope?) might grow cogently that if and when human out of successful human cloning, such as cloning becomes possible, it will repre­ being dircatened widi dozens of Hiders sent little more dian another step in Terence Hines is in the Department of (or Saddams, or whomever). Or die pos­ reproductive technology and one that Psychology, Pace University, Pleasant- sibility that an army of mindless clones individuals should be free to choose if ville. New York.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER November/December 1999 57 BOOK REVIEWS cloned. This is because the female mat often-expressed fear that someone like adult) is a clone? They won't have a bar donated the cell into which the nucleus is Saddam could create an army of mind­ code birthmark on their forehead, or the inserted will almost never be the mother less automatons. First, no one would word "clone" in big red letters on the of the individual who donated the cell really want an army of automatons. backs of their hands! nucleus. It is common knowledge in the They'd make lousy soldiers, being Other, more scientific-sounding biological sciences, but apparently almost unable to make any decisions on their objections fare no better when subjected totally unknown outside, that there is own. That aside, cloned humans would to Pence's penetrating analysis. For DNA not only in the cell nucleus, but in still be human in every respect. Each example, maybe human clones would the cell's cytoplasm. This is known as would have their own mind, personality, reduce human genetic diversity. But, if mitochondrial DNA. Thus, a cloned fears, dreams, and so on. Even if these and when it becomes available, human individual will have die nuclear DNA of objections aren't enough, cloning an cloning will be an expensive procedure one individual, but die mitochondrial army would be an astonishingly costly to be used only in extreme situations. DNA of another. Mitochondrial DNA and inefficient way of getting an army. There will be few human clones out plays important roles in biological there. Most people will continue to pro­ processes in the cytoplasm and in a num­ duce their offspring via the considerably ber of serious diseases. more enjoyable procedure of having sex. Only if the enucleated cell came from Pence points out that the arguments die nucleus donor's biological mother against human cloning are very similar to would the cloned individual be identical those put forward against "test tube to the nucleus donor genetically. But this babies" (now known as in vitro fertiliza­ would certainly not mean that the tion—IVF) in the late 1970s. In fact, the cloned individual would be identical to clamor over IVF was nearly as great then the nucleus donor in every respect. as the clamor over cloning is now. But, Unless, that is, environment, both in twenty-one years after the birth of Louise utero and after birth, has absolutely no Brown, the first IVF baby in 1978, IVF is influence on any aspect of the individ­ so widely accepted that it has just been ual's physical and behavioral develop­ commemorated by die British Post Office. ment. In the case of humans, environ­ The 63 pence denomination in die BPO's Figure 1. A 1999 British stamp commemorating the first mental influences have major effects on test-tube baby. "millennium" series of stamps noting great die more psychological aspects of an events of the century illustrates a small individual. Even if, as now seems likely, First you'd have to get lots of nuclei, and bronze statue of a baby commemorating genetic factors can account for around rhen lots of uteri. Then you'd have to let Ms. Brown's birth (see Figure 1). half of the variance in different aspects of the embryos come to term. Then you'd In addition to die specific objections personality, intelligence, and the like, have to wait another 18 years or so to human cloning, there has also been a this means that environmental factors before the clone army would be old lot of hand wringing with a more philo­ are responsible for the other half. enough and trained enough to go into sophical tone. Pence (p. 46) quotes Nigel So, for Saddam, or whomever, to try combat. Wouldn't it be a whole lot eas­ Cameron, a bioethicist and dieologian at to create himself over again, he'd have to ier to raise an army the old fashioned Trinity International University get cells from his mother, try to dupli­ way —draft young men when they are (Deerfield, Illinois) as saying that human cate her intrauterine environment as it of age? Thus, die "army of automatons" cloning "would be perhaps the worst was 50 or so years ago, and recreate his objection turns out, with a little diing we have ever thought of in the mal­ own childhood experiences during at thought, to be just plain silly. treatment of our species. It [sic] would be least the first 15 or so years of the clones' What if the cloning process turns out a new kind of slave class. You would have lives, just to have a reasonable shot at humans who are in some way abnormal? human beings who were made by other turning out someone like himself. Docs Perhaps there will be physical harm. But human beings for their purposes." But, as this sound very likely? Not at all. Like certainly, before it becomes generally I've noted, diere is no reason whatsoever conspiracy theories that fall apart when available, human cloning would have to think that cloned humans would be one considers how much effort would been tested on primates to establish its slaves. The parents who went to all the have had to be put into the conspiracy if safety, just like any other medical proce­ trouble to have a child via cloning would, it were true, so worries about cloning dure. Or perhaps there will be psycho­ if anything, be especially loving of that disappear when one considers the prac­ logical harm, with cloned children seen child. And what about these children tical side of actually doing the cloning. by dieir peers as "freaks." But how being made for their parents' "purposes"? Another excellent example is the would anyone know if a given child (or Well, yes—but how is this different than

58 November/December 1999 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER BOOK REVIEWS

when two people have sex to have a child? Dolly. Some of this misinformation, as individuals who objected on religious That child, also, was made for die parents' the quotes above demonstrate, was actu­ grounds presented their views. "purpose"—die purpose of having a child. ally produced by these very people. Pence argues convincingly that the Another example: Well-known Pence is especially scathing in his dis­ horrors and dangers of human cloning bioerhicist Leon Klass of the University of cussion of the National Bioethics have been vastly exaggerated and that Chicago (quoted on p. 46) has said, "It is Advisory Commission (NBAC), the the procedure should be seen as noth­ not at all clear to what extent a clone will board that President Clinton ordered to ing more than another reproductive truly be a moral agent." Of course it's come up with a recommendation on option. In a free society government clear. Cloned humans are going to be just human cloning following Dolly. The has no business limiting safe reproduc­ as human as you and me and will have all Commission recommended a total ban tive options, certainly not on religious die legal rights of any other human being on human cloning. Pence notes that this grounds. He makes the most valuable in whatever society they are born into. was done with no real debate on the suggestion that the emotionally Along these lines, Pence is critical of issue. The Commission knew that charged word "clone" be dropped and the failure of most "physicians, distin­ Congress wanted a total ban, and it pro­ replaced by the more accurate and guished scientists, and some well-known vided one. Proponents of human cloning descriptive term "nuclear somatic bioethicists" (p. 36) to reduce die misin­ were not welcome to testify before the transfer" or NST, just as "test tube formation diat flooded die press after Commission, although a large number of baby" was replaced by IVF. LTI

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SKEPTICAL INQUIRER November/December 1999 59 NEW BOOKS Contact: Are We Ready for It? Peter to many rationalists and skeptics. Written in and the interactions at the international Schenkel. Minerva Press, London, Sydney, a realistic style, reminiscent of novels on the political level seem especially well handled, and Atlanta (in U.S., order from Com­ same first-contact theme by scientists not surprising since the author is a political munications Plus, 2103 North Decatur Rd., Harrison Brown and Carl Sagan, this one scientist. There is also great understanding of Suite 335, Atlanta, GA 30033). 1999. ISBN focuses not on technology and science but forces of irrationalism, the dynamics of the 0-75410-432-X. 298 pp. Softcover. £8.99. on the political, social, and ethical problems media, and the interactions of all with the We don't normally note fiction in this col­ that might arise on first hearing from aliens. scientific community. umn, but this new novel about the repercus­ The main characters include a clearly sions of first conta« with aliens will appeal Saganesque astronomer and SETI expert. —Kendrick Frazier

ARTICLES OF NOTE Gould, Stephen Jay. "Dorothy, It's Really the Templeton Foundation's conferences on after they sat in silence. In Experiment 2, the Ox." Time, August 23, 1999, p. 59. Essay science and the spiritual quest. advantage for the music condition disap­ written immediately after the decision by the peared when the control condition consisted Kansas Board of Education to remove evolu­ Lemonick, Michael I)., and Andrea of a narrated story instead of silence. Rather, tion from the states science curriculum. For Dorfman, "Up from the Apes." Time, Aug. performance, was a function of listeners' pref­ Americans "of goodwill" who might suppose 23, 1999, pp. 50-58. In a cover article that, erence (music or story), with better perfor­ there is some genuine scientific or philo­ with wonderful coincidental timing, came out mance following the preferred condition. sophical dispute behind this issue, Gould a few days after the notorious Kansas anticvo- They conclude that although listening to offers three points to alleviate their worries: lution decision, Time presents a rounded view Mozart might lead to improved performance, First, no other Western nation has endured of remarkable new scientific evidence filling in "our results provide no evidence that the any similar movement, with any political the story of how we became human. Four new improvement differs from that observed with clout, against evolution; second, "evolution species of hominid have been added to the other engaging auditory stimuli that are is as well documented as any phenomenon in human family tree since 1994, dating from equally pleasing to participants." science, as strongly as the earth's revolution 800,000 years ago all the way back to 4.4 mil­ around the sun rather than vice versa"; and lion years ago. In addition, newly discovered Scott, Eugenie C "Creationism Evolves." third, no factual discovery of science (state­ fossils of existing species further help trace the Scientific American, August 1999, pp. 92-94. ments about how nature "is") can, in princi­ complex relations among our diverse ances­ Essay review of Robert T. Pennock's Tower of ple, lead us to ethical conclusions (how we tors. An excellent, accessible report about the "ought" to behave) or to convictions about frontiers of discovery about human evolution. Babel: The Evidence Against Creationism intrinsic meaning (the "purpose" of our evolves into a useful discussion of "intelligent- lives). "As patriotic Americans, we should design creationism" and all the relevant issues, cringe in embarrassment that, at the dawn of Matthews, Robert. "The Power of One." including the U.S. public's ready acceptance a new, technological millennium, a jurisdic­ New Scientist, July 10, 1999, pp. 27-30. of the Argument from Design and of cre­ tion in our heartland has opted to suppress Everyday numbers obey a law so unexpected ationists' portrayals of science as materialistic. one of the greatest triumphs of human dis­ it is hard to believe it's true. Armed with this covery. Evolution is not a peripheral subject knowledge, it's easy to catch those who have Steele, Kenneth M., Karen E. Bass, and but the central organizing principle of all been faking research results or cooking the Melissa D. Crook. "The Mystery of the biological science." books. A fascinating article about Benford's Mozart Effect: Failure to Replicate." law, which shows that among numbers Psychological Science, 10(4): 366-369, July culled from any variety of sources, around 30 1999. As in the paper by Nantais and Larson, Edward J., and Larry Witham. percent begin with the digit 1, 18 percent Schellenberg (above), this experimental report "Scientists and Religion in America." with 2, and so on. Recent research has veri­ examines the so-called Mozart effect. Steele et fied the ubiquity of the effea, which is unaf­ Scientific American, September 1999, pp. al. attempted to produce a Mozart effect by fected by changes of units, placed it on solid 88-93. Science and religion are engaging in following the same procedural instructions mathematical ground, and begun to apply it more active dialogue and debate, but a sur­ and replicating the procedure of one of the in a variety of ways, including fraud investi­ vey suggests that scientists' beliefs have original positive reports. The experiment gations, where it is being hailed as the changed little since the 1930s, and top scien­ failed to produce either a statistically signifi­ biggest advance in the field in years. tists are more atheistic than ever before. cant Mozart effea or an effea size suggesting Article reports on the authors' several widely praaical significance. They conclude that publicized surveys and then goes beyond "there is little evidence to support basing Nantais, Kristin M., and E. Glenn that to discuss possible reasons for the unbe­ intellectual intervention programs on die exis­ Schellenberg. "The Mozart Effect: An lief of top-ranked scientists (90 percent of tence of the Mozart effea." (See also another Artifact of Preference." Psychological Science, members of National Academy of Sciences) brief report by Steele and nine colleagues, and 10(4): 370-373, July 1999. The "Mozart compared with scientists in general (of a separate brief report by Christopher F. whom both old and recent surveys indicate effect," reported by three researchers in 1993 Chabris, in the Scientific Correspondence 40 percent believe in God). The article goes and 1995, indicates that spatial-temporal abil­ seaion of Nature, 400:826-827, Aug. 26, on to discuss the evolution/creationism con­ ities are enhanced after listening to music 1999, both under the tide "Prelude or troversy, the several different wings of the composed by Mozart. The authors replicated Requiem for the 'Mozart Effort'?" Then EH. science vs. religion debate, whether there can and extended the effect in Experiment 1: Rauscher, one of the authors of the original, be religion without a God or the super­ Performance on a spatial-temporal task was positive reports, in 1993, replies.) natural, and issues raised by such things as better after participants listened to a piece composed by Mozart or by Schubert than —Kendrick Frazier

60 November/December 1999 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER REVIEW

(looking like nothing more than the Thumbs Down on Fox's work of an unskilled artist) and the mul­ ticolored "glitter" that supposedly man­ "Signs from God" ifested itself on a print of die Image of Guadalupe (itself a bogus but widely JOE NICKELL revered "miracle" picture: see SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Spring 1985, pp. 245-255). blood, a startled Willesee suggested that he Fox television network's air­ Doubtful evidence was hyped, while that might be due to Jesus' having had ing of "Signs from God" (July more prosaic explanations were glossed only a mother and no Earthly father. T28, 1999) represented a new low over or went unmentioned. Ms. Rivas, Such stubbornness, or perhaps sheer in journalistic ethics. Subtitled "Science for instance, was shown producing an ineptitude—or worse—kept the pro­ Tests Faith," the program was actually unusual "delta state" on an EEG, while gram from presenting evidence that was an embarrassing promotion of a particu­ a neurologist's suggestion that there contrary to the claims being made. For lar belief system through staged "mira­ "could be epilepsy" was not further example, the stigmatist, Karya Rivas cles" and the cunning misuse of science. explored. (Perhaps significantly, tem­ Given the Fox network's poral-lobe epilepsy is often shameless history of pro­ associated with visionary expe­ grams that sensationalize the riences.) And when an art con­ paranormal, "Signs from servator and a botanist each God" was the equivalent of a demonstrated that image- religious "Alien Autopsy." bearing rose petals had been Unsuspecting viewers faked (they even duplicated were treated to a litany of the effects by pressing petals provocative claims—bleeding with small medallions), statues, messages from Jesus, Willesee became flustered and stigmata—that were "investi­ tried to redeem the claim. He gated" by Australian journal­ suggested fakery was unlikely ist Michael Willesee. because the "miracle" petals Actually, although represent­ were not being sold, ignoring ing himself as a skeptic, Weeping statue as seen on Fox. ©1999 Fox Broadcasting Company. the possibility of what skeptics Willesee betrayed an agenda term "pious fraud"—deception to promote such alleged phenomena as from Bolivia, was never shown actually used in an end-justifies-the-means authentic. Going beyond mere mystery producing a wound, but rather was pre­ manner to promote religious belief. mongering, he employed science in only sented in incremental shots after each Too little was heard from a scholarly a very limited way, repeatedly avoiding appeared: first the supposed crown-of- Catholic priest who cast doubt on the skeptical experts in the specific fields thorn marks on the forehead, then various phenomena presented and sug­ (such as investigators knowledgeable of those on the hands and feet. The event gested the possibility of trickery. "weeping" statues) and often bypassing took place in her bed, and her bed cov­ The uncritical journalism of execu­ the essential tests necessary to detect ers provided ample means for conceal­ tive producer Michael Willesee was sur­ fraud. For instance, no doctor examined ment of an object that might cut her prising considering his earlier skeptical a stigmatist's wounds and no attempt skin. Moreover, freeze-frame examina­ reporting on such topics as psychic abil­ was made to keep her from inflicting tion of the video reveals that the ity, dowsing, and acupuncture. For these them surreptitiously, but the blood was wounds on her hands and feet were efforts, Willesee received in 1987 the afterward tested and proved to be her comprised of multiple slash marks, not Responsibility in Journalism Award blood—as expected. single nail-like punctures, and the loca­ from CSICOP. But in producing "Signs Similarly, no scientific protocol was tion of the wound on the top of her left from God" both Willesee and Fox followed in ruling out trickery with a foot was far out of alignment with that Television have shown a willingness to "weeping" and "bleeding" bust of Jesus; on the bottom, suggesting they were betray skepticism and balanced journal­ however, a CAT scan of dubious rele­ indeed made separately. ism in favor of Tarings and profits. vance was afterward employed "to test Many phenomena went totally unex­ for the possibility of trickery or fraud," amined, or the examination was not and the blood was forensically exam­ reported, including the appearance of an Joe Nickell is author of Looking for a ined. When it was found to be female image of the Virgin on a concrete floor Miracle (1993).

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER November/December 1999 61 READERS FORUM ON SCIENCE AMD RELIGION

The response to our special issue Science and Religion: Conflict or Conciliation? (July/ ing up our misconceptions, whether they are August 1999) was the largest we ever received to a single issue. It was overwhelmingly positive. Of misconceptions about nature's ways, or mis­ the more than 140 letters and e-mails we have received (more were still arriving at our time cut­ conceptions about right and wrong. This is off), only two complained of our devoting so much space to the topic. Most readers expressed appre­ the responsibility of science and religion, ciation. Many had thoughtful observations or criticisms of articles. We here present selected letters but it is also an individual responsibility. divided into two large categories: those addressing diverse points made throughout the special issue Our survival depends on knowing the and those that focused specifically on the Non-Overlapping Magisteria concept advocated by facts, and on being able to judge correcdy Stephen Jay Gould.—THE EDITOR our own attitudes towards diese facts, as well as the attitudes of our leaders, and would-be leaders, both past and present. I. Science, Religion, and One can define truth as being composed of the Human Condition two parts, verified facts judged against veri­ Joan Morrone fied standards of right and wrong. Stripped Sebring, Fla. to the core it is the business of science to I was pleased with the special issue on sci­ verify facts, and it is the business of religion ence and religion, and especially with the to verify standards of right and wrong as As Kendrick Frazier points out in the articles by Palevitz, Kurtz, Scott, and they apply to civilized behavior. Dawkins. July/August 1999 issue, science and reli­ The earliest teachers of moral values The general view seemed to be that there gion differ fundamentally. At the same were the first to see that standards of need be no conflict if the two institutions time, however, science and religion share a decency had become necessary—diat die stay within their own domains. But that's a critically important feature: they both nec­ old ways had to be changed. Our great dis­ mighty big "if." What wasn't emphasized is essarily involve the behavior of people. For coverers were the first to see diat previous that this condition doesn't, and can't, exist decades behavior analysts have been generations had guessed incorrectly about because of die inherent nature of religion, describing, interpreting, and in some cases nature's ways. perhaps even of human nature itself. experimentally investigating people's Where science and religion cross paths is behavior from a natural science stance. Religion has been steadily eroded ever in the branches of science where human Behavior analysts are interested in all since science began learning how the uni­ behavior comes into play. This includes not aspects of people's behavior, including how verse actually works. In order to survive, it just behavioral science, but also biological they behave as scientists and how they must either discredit science or claim the and medical science. For example, it is as behave as adherents of religions. findings only confirm its doctrine. Either important to discover the worth, or harm, of Unarguably, therefore, at a fundamental way science loses. Unfortunately, some sci­ our "fight or flight" unconscious reflex level, science and religion are of a piece: entists are just as unnerved as the rest of us action as it is to discover its mechanism. they both involve human behavior. by what they are learning, so they resort to Judging, in this sense, should be used for die Paul Kurtz ("Should Skeptical Inquiry be purpose of finding truth, not for condemna­ Applied to Religion?") correctly maintains tion or punishment. that religion and science are different forms A scientific discovery (corrected miscon­ of human behavior that have different func­ ception) does us no good if it is not accepted tions. The discipline of behavior analysis as a universal truth. The negative attitude can help shed light on just how diose forms held toward evolution by fundamentalist of behavior differ and just what different Christians reveals the dark side of die "fight" functions diey serve. response—the resistance to trudi, and the desire to fight for an untruth. Their war-like P. A. Lamal attitude can not only be recognized in dieir Department of Psychology mysticism in an attempt to make it a little diatribes against science, but also in theit lit­ University of North Carolina easier to take. It won't work, and diey are eral translation of Armageddon. By no at Charlotte doing the whole cause a disservice. stretch of die imagination docs their behav­ Charlotte, N.C. Gould's essay says he is not religious, yet ior conform with the standards of civil has a great respect for religion. That puzzles behavior set down by the fadiers of all our me. I am not religious, and none of the rea­ legitimate religions. The symposium on religion and science was sons I'm not give me any need to respect it. thought provoking. However, it omitted the Science, having a history of being chal­ According to the review of Chet all-important political (unction of religion. lenged by religious proselytizers, should not Raymo's Skeptics and True Believers he is on The root of the very word is "that which fall into the same defensive mind-trap. The the side of science but considers research a binds us togedier." Historically, religious testimonies of our wisest ancestors should kind of mysticism, an effort in which we belief systems have been the cement of social be heeded. What else can an eye-opening "interrogate God." Seems like a curious groups, and dieir most important character­ discovery about human behavior be called kind of support. istics seem to be the ability to produce social but a "revelation" of truth? It is easy enough cohesion and not any logical content. Might Overall though, the issue was a good, to separate false prophets from tliose who not the power of religion increase in places and much needed, rebuttal to the current see the handwriting on the wall—the for­ trend toward marrying science to religion. mer are militaristic, and the latter are of social conflict? This is well illustrated peaceniks. where I live. The Civil Rights movement Jerry Brown was promoted from the "black" churches Culver City, Calif. Our further evolution depends on clear­ which were the only political institutions

62 November/December 1999 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER Sampson I CSICOP at twenty. Kurtz / Maria's near- death experience. Ebbern, Mulligan, and Beyerstein I FILL IN THE GAPS IN YOUR Alternative health education and pseudocredential- ing. Raso I Pentagon grant funds alternative health study. Selby and Scheiber I Thomas Edison. Skeptical Inquirer COLLECTION Paranormalist. Gardner. MAY/JUNE 1996 (vol. 20. no. 3) Delights and dangers of • 15% discount on orders of $100 or more • sensory illusions. Wolf I The enigmatic battery of Baghdad. Eggert I The claims of aromatherapy. • $6.25 a copy. Vols. 1-18 ($5.00 Vols. 19-22). To order, use reply card insert • McCutcheon / Fun and fallacies with numbers. Savant I SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 1999 (vol. 23. no. 5): Special crashed-UFO myth, Bartholomew I Case closed: A study of fantasy proneness in John Mack's Abduction. Report: Flash! Fox news reports aliens may have built Reflections on the 1997 Air Force Roswell report, Nickell I The great egg-balancing mystery, Gardner. the pyramids. Carrier I Where do we come from?, Gildenberg and Thomas I Gray Barken My friend, the MARCH/APRIL 1996 (vol. 20. no. 2) Science and supersti­ Pigliucci I Profits and prophecy. Wise I Projective mea­ myth-maker. Sherwood I A skeptic living in Roswell. tion, Sagan I Special report: Evaluation of military's pro­ sures of personality and psychopathology: How well Churchill I Zero-point energy and Harold Puthoff. gram on psychic spying, Hyman I The role of represen­ do they work?. Lilienfeld I What every skeptic ought Gardner. tativeness in erroneous and pseudoscientific beliefs. to know about subliminal persuasion, Epley, Savitsky, and Kachelski I Carlos Castaneda and New Age MARCH/APRIL 1998 (vol. 22, no. 2): Special Report: Gilovich and Savitsky I Vampires of folklore and legend. anthropology, Gardner The price of bad memories, Loftus I Science, delusion, Barber I Miracle photos Nickell I Claiborne Pell: Senator and the appetite for wonder. Dawkins I A mind at from outer space. Gardner. JULY/AUGUST 1999 (vol. 23, no. 4): Special Issue: play: An interview with Martin Gardner. Frazier I JANUARY/FEBRUARY 1996 (vol. 20, no. 1) How to Science and Religion, Conflict or Conciliation? Houdini and Conan Doyle: The story of a strange make an alien for autopsy. Stokes / EMDR treatment. Celebrating creation. flaymo / Should skeptical inquiry friendship, Polidoro I Spontaneous human combus­ Lilienfeld I Psychic crime detectives. Wiseman. West be applied to religion?, Kurtz I The 'Science and tion Thoughts of a forensic biologist. Benecke I Did and Stemman I Health statistics bad for our health, Religion' movement, Scott / Science and the versus of Adam and Eve have navels?. Gardner. Paulos I Science and reason in film and television, religion, Palevitz I Science vs. religion, Pazameta I JANUARY/FEBRUARY 1998 (vol. 22. no. 1): Testing new f vans / Post-Freudian dream theory, Gardner. Anthropic design. Stenger I Scientific skepticism. CSI- claims of dermo-optical perception, Benski and CRSSA NOVEMBER/DECEMBER 1995 (vol. 19. no. 6) The GAO COP, and the local groups. Novella and Bloomberg I Scientists I Magnetic water and fuel treatment. Powe" Two mind-sets. Allen I God is dead, after the weather report on Roswell. Klass I Why creationists don't go to / Dowsing the Rollrights, Hancock I Anomalous gold, and sports, Reiss I Whence religious belief?. Pinker I psychic fairs. Taylor. Eve. and Harrold I Eyewitness tes­ Srower / Open minds and the argument from igno­ Non-overlapping magisteria, Gould I You can't have it timony and the paranormal, Wiseman. Smith, and rance. Adler 1200% probability and beyond: The com- both ways: Irreconcilable differences?. Dawkins I The Wiseman I Objectivity and repeatability in science. concerns of science, Mayr I The religious of extraordin arycl lims in the absence Mussachia I Culture-bound syndromes as fakery, views of Stephen Gould and Charles of alternative expla nations. McDonald 1 Bartholomew I Freud's theory of dreams, Gardner. Psychic expl oitatit in, Wiseman and Darwin, Gardner. SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 1995 (vol. 19. no. 5) The para­ Greening 1 s can nibalism a myth?. dox of knowledge. Loevinger / Consciousness as a MAY/JUNE 1999 (vol. 23, no. 3): Special Gardner. Section: Urban lagandl. The snuff film, valid subject for science. Ingalls I School daze: review NOVEMBER/DECEMBER 1997 (vol. 21, Stint I Bitter harvest: The organ-snatch­ of African-American baseline essays. Rowe I Mystical no. 6): The Mars effect in retrospect. ing urban legends, Radford I Bigfoot's medical altemathiism. Raso / China, chi. and chicanery, Nienhuys I Hidden messages and the screen test, Daegling and Schmitt I Huston I Fuzzy logic, Gardner. Bible code, Thomas I Science, scientism, Tracking Bigfoot on the Internet, Zuefle and anti-science in the age of prepos- JULY/AUGUST 1995 (vol. 19. no. 4) How to sell a pseu­ I Statement analysis. Shearer INAGPRA. terism. Haack / The Elemental Man: An doscience. Pratkanis I Rumors, self-fulfilling prophe­ science, and the demon-haunted world, interview with Glenn T. Seaborg / Men cies, and national obsessions, Paulos I Rose Clark I Urine therapy, Gardner. in Black and Contact. Night and day. Macker.bcrg. Pankratz I Moon, planets, and disasters, MARCH/APRIL 1999 (vol. 23. no. 2): Summer I Intelligent design and Phillip Branham I Artificial languages. Gardner I The Roswell Special Report: The ten-percent myth, Johnson, Gardner. incident and Project Mogul, Thomas. Radford I Superstitio and the regres- MAY/JUNE 1995 (vol. 19, no. 3) The belief engine. sion effect. Kruge Savitsky, and SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 1997 (vol. 21. no. Alcock I Is skepticism tenable? Beloff plus Blackmore, Gilovich I Psychology of the seance, 5): Special Issue: Alternative Medicine in Hyman, Kurtz, Alcock. and Gardner I MediLmship, Wiseman I Dowsing nd archaeology, van Leusen I a Scientific World, Park. Beyerstein, Stein I Ancient aluminum. Eggert / Crop circle mania Hidden messages n DNA?. Larhammar and Sampson, Green, Goodenough, McCutcheon I The wanes, rVickeW / Doug Henning and TM, Gardner I A Chatzidimitriou I The ;al Chief Seattle was not a spir­ Numerology of Dr. Rashad Khalifa, Gardner. young Grand Canyon? Heaton. itual ecologist. Abruzzil Joint pain and weather. Quick JULY/AUGUST 1997 (vol. 21. no. 4): Special Report: MARCH/APRIL 1995 (vol. 19. . 2) Remembering dan- I Acupressure, zone therapy, and reflexology, Gardner. Heaven's Gate. Kurtz. Gardner. Nickell I What really gerously, Loftus I Antiscienci happened at Roswell, Korff / Amazing free-energy n academia. Gross and JANUARY/FEBRUARY 1999 (vol. 23, no. 1): Special Levitt /Feminism now alienatirn g women from science, claims of Dennis Lee, Krieg I Chiropractic: Science, Koertge / 'Lights out': A Report: Armageddon and the prophets of doomsday. antiscience. pseudoscience. Keating I Secrets of a faxlore phenomenon. Fears of the apocalypse, Kurtz I The Bible and the Brunvand I Critique of evolution study. Larhammar. Russian psychic, Polidoro. prophets of doom, Larue / Science and pseudoscience JANUARY/FEBRUARY 1995 (vol. 19, no. 1) Wonder and in Russia. Kapitza I Testing dowsing: The failure of the MAY/JUNE 1997 (vol. 21. no. 3): Is the sky falling?. skepticism, Sagan I Putting away childish things, Munich experiments, Enright I A fallibilist among the Morrison I Collective delusions: A skeptic's guide. Dawkins I The astonishing hypothesis, Crick / Nuclear cynics. Haacfc / The internet: A world brain?, Gardner. Bartholomew I Scientific reasoning and achievement medicine. Seaborg I Literary science blunders, Gardner I in a high school English course. Krai I Skepticism and Air Force report on the Roswell incident /1994 CSICOP NOVEMBER/DECEMBER 1998 (vol. 22. no. 6): Gaps in politics. Fagin I Courtney Brown's 'Cosmic Voyage' into Conference. the fossil record: A case study. Thomas I The Martian preposterism, Gardner. Panic sixty years later Bartholomew I The perils of FALL 1994 (vol. 18, no. 5): Empirical evidence for rein­ post-hockery, Ruscio I May the force be with you, MARCH/APRIL 1997 (vol. 21. no. 2): The darkened cos­ carnation? / Reader's guide to the ozone controversy / Krauss I The Mead-Freeman controversy: A fresh look: mos: A tribute to Carl Sagan / Hale-Bopp Bigfoot evidence: Are these tracks real? Much ado about nothing The 'Fateful Hoaxing' of comet madness plus An astronomer's per­ / Why we are unmoved as oceans ebb Margaret Mead. Cote / Margaret Mead. Derek sonal statement on UFOs. Hale I Biases of Freeman, and the issue of evolution. Shankman I everyday judgment, Gilovich I The end of and flow / Anomalous phenomena in Second World Skeptics Congress: Science and reason, science?, Schick I The Book of Predictions: Kazakhstan / False memories. foibles and fallacies, and doomsdays / Science and the 15 years later, Tuerkheimer and Vyse I SUMMER 1994 (vol 18. no 4.): unknowable. Gardner. Farrakhan, Cabala. Baha'i. and 19, 'Extraordinary science' and the strange Gardner. legacy of Nikola Tesla / Nikola Tesla: SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 1998 (vol. 22. no. 5): Special Genius, visionary, and eccentric / Pollens Section: What are the chances?. Coincidences: JANUARY/FEBRUARY 1997 (vol. 21. no. on the 'Shroud': A study in deception / Remarkable or random?. Martin / Numerology: Comes 1): The X-Files meets the skeptics: Chris Do televised depictions of paranormal the revolution. Dudley I Calculated risks. Cole I How to Carter takes questions / The significance events Influence viewers' beliefs? / study weird things, Trocco / Why would people nor of the millennium. Loevinger I Quantum Synchronkity and the archetypes / The quackery. Stenger I The mysterious believe weird things?, Anderson I Starkie. starkle. lit­ synthetic mind clashes with the reduc­ placebo. Dodes I Bias and Error in chil­ tle twink. Hayes I Of planets and cognitions: The use tionist text / Psi in psychology. of deductive inference in the natural sciences and psy­ dren's books, Wiseman and Jeffreys I SPRING 1994 (vol. 18. no. 3): The chology. Schlinger Jr. I What's going on at Temple Jean Houston: Guru of human potential, University?, Gardner. Gardner. Antiscience Threat: The growth of anti- science / Th s antiscience problem / Measuring the JULY/AUGUST 1998 (vol. 22. no. 4): Special Report: NOVEMBER/DECEMBER 1996 (vol. 20, no. 6): A strat­ prevalence c if false memories / Bleulers views on Mars Global Surveyor photographs 'Face on Mars'. egy for saving science. Lederman I That's entertain- inheritance o f acquired characteristics and on psi phe- Morrison I Magnetic therapy: Plausible attraction. mentl TVs UFO coverup. Klass I Scientific consensus nomena / Exami ng the Satanic panic A personal per- Livingston I Biomagnetk pseudoscience and nonsense and expert testimony, Moore I The Dogon people spective ... A sociological and historical perspective / claims. Sabadelll Catching up with eighteenth century revisited. Ortiz de Montellano I Cosmic menagerie, Philosophy and the paranormal. Part 2: Skepticism, science in the evaluation of therapeutic touch. Ball Tyson I Physicist Alan Sokal's hilarious hoax. Gardner. miracles, and knowledge. SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 1996 (vol. 20. no. 5): Shades of and Alexander I Paranormal depictions in the media: WINTER 1994 (vol. 18, no. 2) The new skepticism / How do they affect what people believe?. Sparks / meaning: Science fiction as a new metric, Stewart I The first World Skeptics Congress / Traditional medi­ Philosophy and the paranormal. Part 1: The problem Planting a seed of doubt Shneour I Essiac The not-so- of 'psi.' / Electromagnetic field cancer scares / Attacks remarkable cancer remedy. McCutcheon I Near-Earth cine and pseudoscience in China, part 2. Beyerstein and Sampson I Conspiracy theories and paranoia. on role-playing games / Global fortune-telling and objects: Monsters of Doom?, Gardner. Bible prophecy / Chemikov pattern puzzle. MAY/JUNE 1998 (vol. 22, no. 3): Special Section: The Harrington I Isaac Newton. Gardner. Aliens Files. Abduction by aliens or sleep paralysis?. JULY/AUGUST 1996 (vol. 20. no. 4): Traditional medi­ For a complete listing of our back issues, call 800-634- Blackmore I Before Roswell: The meaning behind the cine and pseudoscience in China. Beyerstein and 1610. or see http:/7www.csi

64 November/December 1999 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER Novella and David Bloomberg, and Barry show that Einstein was really a believer. tual interests did not overlap. Palevitz would have science be silent con­ However, this comes from an essay "Science On many scientific issues there is no cerning meaning, ethics, and morality, it is and Religion" that Einstein wrote for a sym­ longer disagreement by some religions in fact the best foundation for morality that posium held in New York in 1941. In this (Gould cites evolution and also mentions human beings have ever come up with, essay Einstein makes clear that he does not Galileo's problems with the church). But requiring as a social prerequisite for believe in a personal God, but that his faith this is largely due to the concession by major methodological success a commitment to is "the faith in the possibility that the regu­ religion that science has proved its points. the ethic of trudi-telling. In the words of lations valid for the world of existence are The success of science has reduced the areas Bronowski, science requires that "We ought rational, that is, comprehensible to reason." in which theologians can credibly disagree to act in such a way that what is true can be He says that "for the ethical good, teachers with scientific positions. But again, die very verified to be so." ... of religion must have the stature to give up fact that this process has taken place is an the doctrine of a personal God, that is, give argument against NOMA, not for it. . . . Norman F. Hall up that source of fear and hope which in die That brings me to what I think is the San Diego, Calif. past placed such vast power in the hands of most serious weakness of NOMA. It is basi­ priests." cally condescending to religion. This asser­ tion may shock Gould, who undoubtedly is The series of articles in the SKEPTICAL This is a far cry from a conventional reli­ trying to be very respectful of his counter­ INQUIRER on science and religion was bodi gious attitude. Incidentally, Einstein's exact parts on the other side of the NOMA interesting and disappointing. It merely pre­ quote from this source was: "Science with­ divide, but one rarely bows out of a discus­ sented a survey of the personal opinions of out religion is lame, religion without science sion with an opponent that one respects. It prominent thinkers rather than any system­ is blind." It has been suggested that diis is a is hard to imagine a vigorous, academic atic framework. Widi this approach there play on Kant's "Notion without intuition is debate being stopped unless one side feels will never be any progress in resolving the empty, intuition without notion is blind." the other is either not worth the effort or controversy. Rational inquiry demands My source for the above is The Quotable not able to cope with serious disagreement. more. It is not a single issue but many Einstein, edited by Alice Calaprice, Agreeing to disagree still means that you dis­ underlying issues, some with the potential Princeton University Press 1996. agree. for conciliation while others with irreconcil­ Marvin J. Schissel able conflict. Woodhaven, N.Y. Brad Goldberg First and foremost, the relationship of Studio City, Calif. science to religion has always been cast in the wrong framework of the physical versus II. Non-Overlapping the spiritual or transcendent. The vital issue The special issue on science and religion was is between the known and the unknown— Magisteria ... or Not? very welcome. Our inconsistencies arc what what is the nature of the unknown, what Stephen Jay Gould's article on Non- make us human I suppose. I confess that I claims are made about the unknown, and Overlapping Magisteria (NOMA) is a was amused by Stephen Jay Gould's ready most importantly how anyone (religion or thought-provoking discussion on die sepa- acceptance of the Pope's view of how science) learns anything about the r.iimn of church and science. He arrives at a humans came to have souls. Either souls unknown. very gendemanly position, and it is a stance affect die way die body works, in which case The key question all scientists must that may be appropriate for dinner parties neuroscicntists will have a say in the matter, answer with regard to their personal beliefs where one wants to prevent heated argu­ or they do not, in which case it hardly mat­ is not whether God or spiritual realm exists ments. As an academic position, it is a little ters one way or the other for science or reli­ but if there is a different way of knowing like declaring Earth to be only 7,000 years gion. However, what surprised me most was about any realms that contradicts the fun­ old. Saying that religion and science have no diat no one seemed to address the social damental process by which science gains areas of common authority doesn't make it purpose of religion. so. And to believe that they don't overlap knowledge and understanding. A belief in a My view of the world is probably about requires ignoring a mountain of evidence to spiritual realm or God can potentially be the same as Richard Hawkins's. Religion the contrary. reconciled with science. But a religious explains nothing and should not be taken claim to knowledge through divine revela­ History itself is the most powerful seriously in descriptions of the real world. tion or mysticism that has to be accepted counter-argument to NOMA. Science and Where I differ is in recognizing the social on faith alone and never questioned nor religion both grew out of human attempts importance of religion. I suspect diat one of even rationally analyzed is the antithesis of to explain the world. That each may have the reasons that religious ideas are so persis­ science. developed a different methodology doesn't tent is that diey deal with our mortality. Death and subsequent nonexistence are not Bryan Sellers mean that they now have no areas of dis­ pleasant prospects. The idea that there Cincinnati, Ohio pute. Consider the passions ignited by such might be something else can be a great com­ issues as abortion, creationism, gender iden­ fort to the terminally ill or the bereaved. As tity, sexual preference, the origins of violent a rationalist, I can give these people expla­ Eugenie Scon, in her article "The 'Science behavior, the nature of alcoholism, child nation, but I cannot give them hope. and Religion Movement" quotes Einstein development, and many other areas where approximately thus: "Religion without sci­ religious and scientific agendas clash. I don't At its best, religion can also provide a ence is crippled, while science without reli­ think Gould could argue to die principals in vehicle for social cohesion and a catalyst for gion is lame." This quote is often cited to any of these controversies diat their intellec­ charitable deeds or even an impetus for

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER November/December 1999 65 social change. At its worst, of course, it can much greater defense than offered by imposed upon us." lead to bigotry, intolerance and persecu­ Dawkins, because the doctrines deal with I wonder why must we cede morality tion. . . . The New Testament is rather high the supernatural, which is outside the (and the moral high ground) to religion? on social welfare and low on metaphysics. purview of science. Science has no way of What quality does religion possess that qual­ For all the born-again egoists, there arc proving them false.. . . ifies it for such a distinction? A look at its many whose selfless efforts make a real dif­ history reveals a trail strewn with bigotry, Allan D. Halderman ference our society. I am not sure that secu­ violence, and xenophobia. Oregon City, Ore. lar organizations generate this level of com­ The problem is that morals are a social mitment. construct—developed among peoples So the question is not the one addressed Richard Dawkins provides a dose of pure through negotiation (and conflict) to define by most of your contributors: Can religion oxygen that clears that hazy atmosphere acceptable behaviors. Are the debates con­ tell us anything about the world in which that often surrounds discussions of religion tentious? Certainly! Do morals change and wc live? It is whether scientific rationalism (July/August 1999). I would add one evolve over time? Yes! can replace the social function of religion. thought. It seems to me that we must define And that's the problem with formalized Maybe it can, but for the moment I am hap­ "supernatural." If this word refers to events religions and morality. Their morality was pier that people needing help go to a priest or beings acknowledged to be fiction, then created primarily to control and unite their trained in counseling than to a New Age indeed science has no interest in them. On particular cultures. To lend their morals charlatan more interested in making money. the other hand, if claims are made that credibility, they attributed them to gods and these events or beings are real, then science proved their veracity with miraculous cos­ Prof. Peter Main has a legitimate interest in testing these mologies. School of Physics and claims, for many supernatural events and Unfortunately, this attitude stifles the Astronomy beings, if real, would change fundamental discussion of morals today. No negotiation University of Nottingham physical laws. can occur with an absolutist. In a multicul­ Nottingham, U.K. It would appear that many scientists tural, democratic world, this kind of un-rea- think that "supernatural" means "fiction," soning is poison. I could argue on those grounds, that religions should be excluded Judging from Richard Dawkins' article, and many religious people believe that from discussions of morals. Non-Overlapping Magisteria is going to be "supernatural" means "special but real." difficult to implement. Religions claim Problems arise when the term is left unde­ It is up to each of us to define and dis­ questions of morality and apparently are fined. It puzzles me that scientists such as cuss "what wc most value about human supported by S. J. Gould. Dawkins ques­ Ernst Mayr contribute to this confusion. potentiality," and to base this on reason and on our experience of the world today—not tions the record of religion and concludes Mayr says: ". . .souls, spirits, angels, or the world 2,000 or 10,000 years ago. We that we have some alternative source of ulti­ gods. . . . Such supernatural constructions are beyond the scope of science." Why? If create morals to help us get along with each mate moral conviction. they actually exist, and since "[t]he world other, to help our culture be more fair. Is it E. O. Wilson apparently would agree. In and all that is in it are the sphere of interest easy? No. But let's not default to faith rather Consilience, he suggests that ethical codes ... of scientists . ..", then let us discover than actively participate in this critical have arisen by evolution through the inter­ these new laws. struggle. I'm not sure if science has a role, play of biology and culture (page 251). He but I know that scientists do. goes further to place ethics and morality in I think what Mayr and others mean is the domain of science: that such claims are fictions, and fictitious Keith Eckert constructions are not a concern for science. The idea of a genetic, evolutionary origin Carlisle, Pa. However, I suspect that the central myths of of moral and religious beliefs will be tested by the continuance of biological religion are held to be factual rather than studies of complex human behavior. To fictitious by more than just the fundamen­ the extent mat the sensory and nervous talists. I cannot remember ever hearing a Stephen Jay Gould in his article "Non- systems appear to have evolved by natural cleric read scripture to a congregation and Overlapping Magisteria," contends of selection or at least some other purely then remind her audience that it is fiction. Catholicism and Judaism that "neither reli­ material process, die empiricist interpreta­ gion maintains any extensive tradition for Thus the non-overlapping magisteria tion will be supported. It will be farther reading the Bible as literal truth, other than amount to the study of die world through supported by verification of gene-culture illuminating literature based partly on coevolution, die essential linking process evidence on the one hand, and fiction often described in earlier chapters (page 264). presented as fact on the other. metaphor and allegory . . . and demanding interpretation for proper understanding." This advance of science into a traditional Jerry Shedd That statement is incorrect. The entire area of religion seems to have merit. Ripton, Vt. medieval tradition of four-fold allegorical Later in his article, Dawkins accuses interpretation, informing a voluminous religion of encroachment into the domain exegetical literature, had as its first level the of science. He claims that the Roman S. J. Gould's article- suggests that we look to literal, the truth of which had to he assented Catholic doctrines of the Virgin Birth, the religion "for grounding moral discussion, to if the text was canonical The other three bodily assumption of the Blessed Virgin and for expressing what we most value levels (anagogical, allegorical, and tropologi- Mary, the Resurrection of Jesus, and the about human potentiality: our decency, our cal) were merely mystical "types," expanding survival of souls after death, are scientific care, and all the ethical and intellectual the literal truth to the heavenly Jerusalem, questions. Such an assertion requires a struggles that the evolution of consciousness the Church, and the individual soul rcspec-

66 November/December 1999 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER tively. Certainly for the Pope and for mil­ ence and religion, which provided me widi angels, and all their other fantasies. lions of Catholics to this day, the New my first opportunity to read something by Steven Pinker and Richard Dawkins Testament is not "illuminating literature"; it Stephen Jay Gould, whose "Non- have it right: "You Can't Have It Both is the sacred, God-inspired text which serves Overlapping Magisteria" almost made me Ways"! Rationalists (skeptics) cannot admire as the foundation of their faith. want to run out and hug a Christian. delusions! We will not gain by pretending Almost, but not quite. there is a middle ground and pandering to Frank Reuter Reality was once again brought home by the religious majorities. We have no "souls Berryville, Ark. Richard Dawkins, and I resumed my some­ to save" and if we remain a minority, it is what hard-line position toward religion, enough to know that we are pursuing truth, actually sorry, to a degree, that this had to be not inventing it. It is just another fact of The major problem with Gould's Non- so. But Mr. Gould, in spite of his truly excel­ nature that most humans are not very intel­ Overlapping Magisteria theory is its lent article, failed to provide any usable argu­ ligent and easily deluded. assumption that religion has a "higher ment against what is a glaring problem for insight into moral truth" than does science. me and Mr. Dawkins regarding religion. My M. Lionel Bender Gould correctly notes that science does not view has always been that religion, by its very Professor Emeritus have such a higher insight, but the implica­ nature and by virtue of its very existence, Southern Illinois University tion is that religion does. True, religion tells represents an ongoing invasion into the sci­ Carbondale, 111. us what ancient peoples thought about entific field. The religious claim of a "super­ morality, something that should be weighed natural" realm full of supernatural entities, in our current moral thinking. But science with an all-powerful deity at the head, all of The opposing views presented by S.J. Gould also tells us the way things work, something which, it is claimed, can and do insert them­ and Richard Dawkins in your July/August that also must be taken into consideration. selves into our "natural" realm, reduces what issue were both stimulating and informative. Yet Gould seems to ignore the possibility we call natural laws to the level of mere tem­ It would appear that Mr. Gould, by leaving that independent moral philosophers, not porary rules; rules that remain in force only out a key portion of Pope John Paul's beholden to a religious tradition, would until an angel or the Virgin Mary decides to encyclical, i.e. ". .. consequendy, theories of have a more balanced view of ethics. In make a visit and place them on hold. . . . evolution which, in accordance with the doing so, he turns ethics over to a group of philosophies inspiring them, consider the people who arc no more qualified to pro­ mind as emerging from the forces of living nounce on morals than are scientists. Peter Cushnie Milford, Conn. matter, or as a mere epiphenomenon of this matter, are incompatible with the truth The cute dictum that science studies about man . . .", has weakened his position "how the heavens go" while religion teaches even as Mr. Dawkins has strengthened his us "how to go to heaven" glosses over the I am a regular reader of SKEPTICAL INQUIRER argument by quoting it. fact that ethics should not depend on what and Free Inquiry and look forward to each behaviors led to a reward in the afterlife, but issue. The SI special issue on science and Those of us who were raised as religious rather on how best to make life livable and religion was of particular interest. However, fundamentalists with a literal acceptance of civilized—in a word, better—in this world. 1 am alarmed at what seems to be a trend: to the Bible have probably found it easier to talk of the "two magisteria" and try to neu­ abandon those views than others who were Charles Kluepfel tralize or lessen the conflict between the brought up in the more intellectual and Bloomfield, N.J. rational way of looking at the world and the non-literalist religions. I would suggest that irrational way. This is especially exemplified Mr. Gould is not suffering from a "cow­ by Stephen Jay Gould and Chet Raymo. ardly flabbiness of the intellect" as implied Stephen Jay Gould's NOMA has been Come on, guys, I don't see how you can say by Mr. Dawkins but instead has perhaps breached most recendy by the discipline of things such as that you "have great respect become the victim of another phenome­ evolutionary psychology, which teaches that for religion" and that you want to see a "lov­ non, nostalgia. our moral behavior has, to a significant extent, ing concordat" (Gould, p. 60 in "Non- It is amusing to see both of these men of been determined by the same evolutionary Overlapping Magisteria"). Nor should we reason fall into the trap of what the late Carl pressure that sculpted our physical attributes. seek "spirituality" in science a la the late Sagan referred to as "common and perilous fal­ A look at the primatologic studies of De Waal Carl Sagan. Emotional states arc not "spiri­ lacies of logic and rhetoric"; being in this case in Good Naturcd and the contrasting ones of tual" in the sense the religionists advocate. ad hominem and observational selection. Wrangham and Peterson in Demonic Males The scientific approach deals with the indicates why our moral behavior reveals vary­ Jack D. Taylor real world as best we can and is always ready ing amounts of good and evil in each of us. I Flagstaff, Ariz. to change if facts merit it. Religion deals submit this is a better explanation of our moral with imaginary worlds which are not con­ natures than the Christian doctrines of origi­ strained by facts nor even by logic. We nal sin and divine grace. I greatly enjoyed the special issue Science should not waste any time trying to arrive at and Religion—the Mike Reiss piece was Irving N. Wolfson "loving concordats" with any or all of the hilarious—but I need to respond to Richard Worcester, Mass. dangerous nonsense spun off by the reli­ Dawkins's article, "You Can't Have It Both gionists. Certainly we should not accept Ways: Irreconcilable Differences?" their claim to be able to make moral/ethical I sec nothing cowardly or intellectually judgments. Their morals/ethics are just as Praise for your informative and exciting flabby in having a respectful coexistence with imaginary as their souls, sin. salvation, gods. July/August special issue dealing with sci­ religion. It has its place, just not in the sci-

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER November/December 1999 67 cnce classroom. Intelligent believers—and The point is, as Mr. Dawkins says, the reli­ another case of virgin birth, on the grounds that is not an oxymoron—understand that. gious teachers did pick out only the nice bits that it must be possible because it happened Why should we respect religion? Here's a to reinforce their message—but at least they once before, or of a coroner hedging his bets few suggestions: had a message to give, a message that didn't on the time of death because the corpse 1. It is a source of comfort, particularly seem to get spread in any other organized way. might have been briefly under the heavenly in the face of tragedy. I saw this first hand In ail my years of growing up, Sunday School influence and therefore failed to decay on when a friend suffered a fatal attack at a is the only place where we gatheted regularly schedule. Allegations of miracles arc not social gathering. We were a mixture of to talk about how we were supposed to accepted as evidence. They have no bearing pagans, Jews, a couple of Christians and, as behave, how to be good and kind and honest. on anything or anyone except those who near as I can tell, only one agnostic. All Somewhere in my teens, I rationalized believe on the strength of faith alone. about me, my friends comforted each other God out of my life, but the behavioral train­ 5. My last reason is a selfish one. My one with statements like, "He's with his grand­ ing still took. The same could have been great passion in life is music. 1 live sur­ mother now" and "He's up there now, wav­ offered in a secular setting, and it probably rounded by glorious sounds. Opera is my ing at us," and even "He reached Valhalla should be. But until ethics becomes a regu­ favorite, but sacred works are not that far before us." So, should I have tried to squelch lar course in the schoolrooms, taught from behind. For treasures like Gounod's St. these crumbs of comfort by telling them pre-school on up, we must look to the Cecilia Mass, Beethoven's Missa Solemnis, that our friend was irrevocably dead, never churches, synagogues, and mosques to do Verdi's Requiem and Mozart's Vesperae to be seen again in this world or the non­ the job. (Leaving it to the parents is too hap­ Sollennes de Confessore, I could put up existent next one? If anything, my grief was hazard. Too many of them are in need of with any amount of silliness. worsened by the loss of faith, and I would such training themselves.) Bev Kaufman not have wished that on the rest. 3. We should forebear from unnecessary Sunrise, Fla. 2, Religion provides a foundation of moral attacks on religious beliefs because we have character. Yes, Mr. Dawkins, I know all about no reason to be unkind. Someone called die bloody injustices and the cruel laws that teligion a crutch, and to many, I'm sure it is. As much as we would like to continue this exist in the Bible. As an avid reader, I was tear­ But what kind of person would kick the forum indefinitely, space will not allow us to ing through the Old Testament by the fourth crutch out from under rhe cripple? do so. We may publish a few more letters on grade. I used to dig out all sorts of horrors and 4. With the notable exception of the cre­ the subject in a future issue but will need bring them up in Sunday School, which ationist movement, I don't see religious to get on to other matters. Additional would disturb die teachers to no end ("That's claims acting as a threat to science. For letters may be found at our Web site. interesting, Beverly, but today we're talking instance, I have never heard of a paternity http://www.csicop.org. Thank you for your about Ruth and Boaz.") suit being settled by the ruling that this was deep interest.—THE EDITOR

LETTERS TO THE EDITOR Alternative Medicine Journals editors and bashing the "medical prostate cancer. "What the authots did not establishment" avoid the issue. mention is that it also has properties that alter Arguments Fueled by E. Frauenglass proposes Federal support testosterone levels and thus slow the rate of lllogic. Lack of Information for testing nonpatentable herbal and "nat­ cancer growth in the prostate." What Mr. ural" products in order to satisfy FDA regula­ Blois apparendy docs not know, and that Drs. The May/June 1999 letters column printed tions. Of the thousands of chemical com­ Angcll and Kassirer and most physicians do, five letters responding to Drs. Angell's and pounds in nature, in thousands of plant is that any estrogenic substance lowers testos­ Kassirer's reprinted New England Journal of species, which claims would be most appro­ terone secretion in men by inhibiting pituitary Medicine editorial—all critical. The letters were priate to test? Those from thousand-year-old secretion of the stimulating hormone. Bloise intriguing because even sophisticated readers systems, or ones made up yesterday by enter­ then says "[PC-SPES] has cancer-controlling of SI are felled by illogic, lack of information, prising neighbors on the Internet? And test properties that go far beyond its estrogenic and their own hostile, "alternative medicine" for which conditions? And compared to activity." He accuses the editors of making arrirudes. They were disturbing because of which standard therapies? Or test in which unsupported statements (see below) ... but their poor understanding that "AM" promotes combinations (that increases the possibilities there is no proof for his statement. personal and unreliable emotional experience logarithmically?) The idea might work in a Blois contests the editorial's statement over knowledge and reasoning. world of infinite time and funding. At that PS-SPES is promoted as bolstering die $200-300 million each, to test only one hun­ While the editorial contained some state­ immune system, writing "Yeah? Where is it dred herbs just once would cost S30 billion ments only partially correct ("alternative" promoted as such?" "Where" is made clear in in taxes. If ten percent are found useful, rhat's methods have not been tested, advocates the references and in the "AM" boosting S3 billion for each substance for just one avoid testing), the obvious message was lost magazine. Alternative Medicine Digest study each. Some bargain, that proposition. on the quasi-skeptic correspondents. "AM" (November 1997). It had already been made advocates make false representations, decline R. Blois regrets the "misinformation and clear that certain claims cannot be made on to disclaim in the presence of disproof, many unfounded attacks on so-called alterna­ the label, where Blois looked. engage commentary from a largely emotional tive medicine." As proof of rhe legitimacy of Blois also contents that PC-SPES "... and anti-intellectual framework, and submit "AM" he displays his own experience with PC- can replace traditional hormone blockade to commercial promotion without support­ SPES, a product of Chinese herbs with estro­ . . ." without producing hormone resistance. ive proof (scams). Charges against the genic activity, which he apparcndy takes for There is no proof for such a statement, and of

68 November/December 1999 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER LETTERS TO THE EDITOR

course, no reference. The rest of Mr. Blois' skeptic readers often comment in SI. But few experiment) are still somehow seen as inferior letter is a list of objections to word usage, have dieir minds changed by accurate infor­ to linear thought, by persons whose diought without any substantive proof given for most mation. Does mat come as news? processes are confined by die latter method. of his claims. One gets put in die position diat to do sci­ W. Holliday startles us with, "[The edito­ Wallace Sampson, M.D. ence, not only must you be diorough, skepti­ rial] can hardly be said to have been written Los Angeles, Calif. cal, and methodical, your method must con­ by unbiased individuals." This common error form to a method of thinking that is not equates a negative opinion reached through (Wallace Sampson is editor of the Scientific native to most women. knowledge and reason as being "biased," a Review of Alternative Medicine.—ED.) Where are the women scientifically favorite technique of aberrant medicine advo­ minded skeptics? They are somewhat skepti­ cates and postmodern models of argument. Where Are the Female cal of die whole game, and opt out. This is a He goes on to repeat die mantra that it cost Voices of Skepticism? shame, since the insights that could be $300 million to get a drug through FDA brought by these women (and passed along to approval. But it is easier to donate $300,000 their nieces, nephews, and children, instead of to political campaigns, and simply change the I just completed reading die July/August the pablum of pop culture) could have a very laws (Hatch-Richardson's DSHEA, 1994) to 1999 SI, and through the entire magazine decided effect on the next generation. allow free marketing of products as herbal was myself wondering, "Where are die female supplements. That is exacdy what herb entre­ voices of scientific skepticism?" when I read Jo Schaper preneurs did. The other alternative is to cease Frederick Crane's letter admonishing SI that Pacific, Mo. making unwarranted medical claims dis­ inclusion begins at home. guised as "health" effects, and treat the public As a woman in midlife embarking on a to honest marketing. graduate degree in geology who considers Psychic Irony herself a critical diinker, I think I know where L. Cline errs by accusing the editors of the difficulty lies. using "the same brainwashing techniques that After reading the News and Comment article While women may no longer be excluded "FBI Enlisted Psychic in TWA 800 the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER and the article ... from the physical sciences to the degree they denounce." As illustration, Cline equates Investigation" (July/August), I recalled a once were, the hard sciences still very much recent article in my local newspaper diat anecdotal claims of effectiveness for supple­ show a male sphere of influence, which must ments with the well-researched and detailed pointed out the importance of listening to be quite daunting to young women, as it is to psychics in a criminal investigation. case reports and analyses in the New England me, even after many years of work in tradi­ While investigating the abduction and Journal issue. That issue also reported on the tionally male jobs. There are just so many probable murder of a local girl from an all- high incidence of adulteration of Asian herbal physics problems based on sports, military, night convenience store, Terry Smith, an preparations with lead and other substances, aircraft, automotive, and construction topics investigator with the Minnesota Bureau of lead contamination of an Indian homeopathic (all things one would assume men have some Criminal Apprehension, was heard to com­ remedy, and numerous unwanted effects of familiarity with or interest in, beyond the ment on the role of psychics in the criminal other supplements. One does not have to go assignment) one can stand before wondering investigation, "When you talk to your first to medical school to "get brainwashed" to be why household applications or the mechanics psychic, it's interesting. After your 100th psy­ able to tell the difference between good sci­ of macroscopic nature are rarely mentioned. chic, you're less impressed. They always say ence and pseudoscience, between a detailed The same is true of advanced math texts. For something vague, such as, 'I see a field with case study and a personal anecdote. In case of example, what interest would I have in figur­ flowers.' Just once, I'd like one to give me an persistent resistance, the simplest example is ing the exponential growth rates of basketball address." the difference between a detective's murder salaries or the probabilities of someone pitch­ investigation and the murderer's alibi. ing a no-hitter? Without text that can hold When asked why die bureau was wasting Finally, R. Tripician relates that after the interest of girls and women by including investigative resources following up on the seven years of Mevacor and about six months real-world problems where they have some leads that psychics provided, he remarked, of dizziness, he stopped the drug and familiarity with the subject, I suspect the fail­ "Because it could really be the suspect or his improved, and found "dizziness" listed ure rates due to lack of comprehension result wife or girlfriend, trying to tell you where the among reported side effects. That experience, in much eventual movement of smart women body is." though suggestive, is not proof of a side effect to fields more on die social side of die sci­ So don't sell psychics short, they some­ of the drug. In fact, dizziness after seven years ences, a fact which is indeed reflected in die times do solve cases, although in the most of lack of side effects would direct most professional listings of die women on your deliriously ironic way. physicians to consider other causes. Almost Committee. Lar Nachtwey all drug side effects include dizziness, since While science has no gender, I do think Lake Elmo. Minn. any unwanted symptom occurring while on a boys and girls are still socialized to think dif­ drug is reportable to the company or to the ferently, and the thinking skills and patterns FDA. It is then included in the drug's of women arc less likely to be based on stan­ description—whether or not the drug was dard deductive logic .; la Sherlock Holmes. Due to the volume of letters not all can the cause. Tripician's experience has little to Other forms of equally valid scientific do with why people take "alternatives." That be published. Address letters to Letters inquiry (induction leading to rigorous inves­ to the Editor. SKEPTICAL INQUIRER. has more to do with personalities, politics, tigation, for example, or weblike associative Send by nuil to 044 Deer Dr. NE. and advertising than with drug effects or per­ ranging, often leading to novel insights, Albuquerque. NM 87122. ceived physician error. Nonskcptic and quasi- which can then be confirmed or denied by

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER November/December 1999 69 THE COMMITTEE FOR THE SCIENTIFIC INVESTIGATION OF CLAIMS OF THE PARANORMAL AT THE CENTER FOR INQUIRY-INTERNATIONAL (ADJACENT TO THE STATE UNIVERSITY OF NEW YORK AT BUFFALO) AN INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATION Network of Affiliated Organizations International ARGENTINA. CAIRP. Director, Ladislao Enrique Finland. E-mail contact: Jukka Hakkinen. jukka. ku. Seoul 120-190. Korea. Marquez. Jose Marti 35 - "C", (CP. 1406), Buenos hakkinenehelsinki.fi. MALTA. SICEC (Society for Investigating The Credibility Aires. E-mail: deschaveScvtci.com.ar. FRANCE. Cerde Zetetique, Contact: Paul-Eric Blanrue, 12 of Extraordinary Claims) Vanni Pule 48, Sirti Street San AUSTRALIA. National: Australian Skeptics, Contact: Rue David Deitz, 57000 Metz. Comite Francais pour Gwann, SGN 07 Malta. (+356 381994) pulevanekey- Barry Williams, Executive Officer, P.O. Box 268, I'Etude des Phenomenes Paranormaux, world.net. Roseville, NSW 2069. 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New Zealand Skeptics, Bernard infoegwup.org). Australia Skeptics. P.O. Box 377, Rundle Mall, SA Howard, Secretary, 150 Dyer's Pass Rd., Christchurch 5061, Australia. E-mail: lakesOsenet.com.au. HONG KONG. Hong Kong Skeptics. Contact: Brad 2. N.Z. Vickie Hyde, Chair-entity, South Pacific Infor­ Tasmanian Skeptics, 97 Gillon Crescent Mount Collins, P.O. Box 1010, Shatin Central Post Office. mation Services, Box 19-760, Christchurch 5. N7. Fax: Stuart TAS 7000. Victoria Skeptics, P.O. Box Shatin. NT. +64 (03) 385-5138. E-mail: nzsmespis.co.nz. Web: http://www.spis.co.nz/skeptics.htm. 5166AA. Melbourne, VIC 3001. Western Australia HUNGARY. Hungarian Skeptics. Gyula Bencze, Skeptics. P.O. Box 899. Morley WA 6062. Termeszet Vilaga. P.O. Box 25. Budapest 8.1444. (Fax: NORWAY. Skepsis. St. Olavsgt 27, N-0166, Oslo. BELGIUM. SKEPP, W. Betz, Secretary, Laarbeeklaan 011-36-1-118-7506). PERU. CISPSI-PERU, Contact: MA. Paz y Mino, 103, B1090 Brussels (Fax: 32-2-4774301). INDIA. Indian Skeptics. B. 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Box 5571, Station A, Calgary, Alberta Secretary, Periyar Thidal, 50. E.V.K. Sampath Road. Dostojevskeho rad 13, 811 09 Bratislava, Slovak T2H 1X9. British Columbia Skeptics. Contact: Lee Madras - 600 007. Tamil Nadu. Republic. Moller, 1188 Beaufort Road, Vancouver V7G 1R7. IRELAND. Irish Skeptics. Contact: Peter O'Hara. St SOUTH AFRICA. Assn. for the Rational Investiga­ Ontario Skeptics, Henry Gordon. Chairman, 343 Joseph's Hospital, Limerick. tion of the Paranormal (ARIP), Marian Laserson, Clark Ave West. Suite 1009, Thornhill Ontario L4J 7K5. Secretary, P.O. Box 46212, Orange Grove, 2119 South E-mail: hgordoneidirect.com. Ottawa Skeptics, ISRAEL. Israel Skeptics Society. Philip Marmaros, Contact: Greg Singer (skeptic8ottawa.com). Chairman, P.O. Box 8481, Jerusalem. (Fax: 972-2-567- Africa. SOCRATES. Contact: LW. Retief. P.O. Box President. P.O. Box 1237 Station B, Ottawa, Ontario, 0165, Web: http7Aivww.anigrafix.com/psi). 10240, Welgedact Bellville 7530, South Africa, E-mail: Canada KIP 5R3. Sceptiques du Quebec: Alan ITALY. CICAP (Comitato Italiano per il Controllo leonreiafrica.com. Bonnier, CP. 202. Succ. Beaubien, Montreal H2G 3C9. delle Affermazioni sul Paranormale). P.O. Box SPAIN. Afternativa Racional a las Pseudociencias E-mail: www.sceptiques.qc.ca. 1117, 35100 Padova; Tel. Fax: 39-426-22013. Scienza (ARP). Carlos Telleria, Executive Director, Apdto. & Paranormale, Massimo Polidoro. Editor. P.O. Box 1516, 50080 Zaragoza. El Investigador Esceptico. CHINA. China Association for Science and 60. 27058 Voghera (PV); e-mail: editorecicap.org. Technology. Contact: Shen Zhenyu, Research Contact: Felix Ares De Bias, Gamez/Ares/Martinez, Center. CAST. PO Box 8113, Beijing, China. JAPAN. Japan Skeptics. Jun Jugaku, Contact Person, P.O. Box 904. 20080 Donostia-San Sebastian. Chinese Skeptics Circle, Contact: Wu Business Center for Academic Societies Japan. 16-9 SWEDEN. Vetenskap och Folkbildning (Swedish Xianghong, Box 4-doctor. Renmin Univ. of China, Honkomagome 5-chome, 8unkyo-Ku. Tokyo 113. Skeptics). Sven Ove Hansson. Secretary. Box 185. 101 Beijing 100872. JAPAN. (Japan Anti-Pseudoscience Activities 23 Stockholm. Network) c/o Ohta Publishing Company. Ryutarou CZECH REPUBLIC. Czech Club of Skeptics, Dr. Ivan Minakami, Chairperson. Epcot Bid 1F. 22, Arakichou, TAIWAN. Tim Holmes, P.O. Box 195, Tanzu, Taiwan. David. Vozova 5, Prague 3, 73000, The Czech Republic Shinjukuku Tokyo, JAPAN (Fax: +81 3 3359-0040, e- UNITED KINGDOM. Skeptical Inquirer Representative, ESTONIA. Contact: Indrek Rohtmets, Horisont, EE 0102 mail: skepticee-mail.ne.jp.) Michael J. Hutchinson, 10 Crescent View, Loughton, Tallinn, Narva mnt. 5. KAZAKHSTAN. Kazakhstan Commission for Inves­ Essex IG10 4PZ. Association for Skeptical Enquiry EUROPEAN COUNCIL OF SKEPTICAL ORGANIZA­ tigation of Anomalous Phenomena (KCIAP), (ASKE), Contact: Wayne Spencer. 15 Ramsden Wood TIONS. Amardeo Sarma,' Secretary, Postfach 1222. Contact: Sergey Efimov, Astrophysical Institute, Rd.. Walsden. Todmorden, Lancaster OL14 7UD, E- D-64374 Rossdorf (Fax: +49 6154 81912). Kamenskoye Plato, Alma-Ata 480068, Kazakhstan. mail: askeedoofa.demon.co.uk. The Skeptic maga­ FINLAND. Skepsis. Ilpo V. Salmi, Chairman. Veikko KOREA. Korea PseudoScience Awareness, Gun II zine. Editor, Wendy Grossman, P.O. Box 475. Joutsenlahti, Secretary. P.O. Box. 00101 Helsinki, Kang, Director, 187-11 Bukahyun-dong Sudaemun- Manchester M60 2TH. United States ALABAMA. Alabama Skeptics, Emory Kimbrough. 8551). E-mail: tsandbekeMOTHER.COM. San Diego Land (REALL), David Bloomberg, Chairman. P.O. Box 3550 Watermelon Road, Apt. 28A. Northport. AL Association for Rational Inquiry, Contact Bruce R. 20302. Springfield IL 62708 (217-726-5354), E-mail: 35473 (205-759-2624). Wallace. 945 Fourth Avenue. San Diego, CA 92101 (619- chairmanereall.org. ARIZONA. Tucson Skeptics Inc. James McGaha. 233-1888. Fax: 619-696-9476). INDIANA. Indiana Skeptics. Robert Craig, Chair­ Chairman. 5100 N. Sabino Foothills Dr.. Tucson, AZ COLORADO. Rocky Mountain Skeptics. Bela person, 5401 Hedgerow Drive. Indianapolis. IN 46226. 85715, E-mail: JMCGAHAePimaCC.Pima.EDU. Scheiber,- President P.O. Box 7277, Boulder, CO KENTUCKY. Kentucky Assn. of Science Educators Phoenix Skeptics, Michael Stackpole, Chairman. 80306 (Tel.: 303-449-7537, Fax: 303-447-8412. Web: and Skeptics (KASES). Chairman. Prof. Robert A P.O. Box 60333. Phoenix. AZ 85082. bcn.boulder.co.us/community/rms). Baker, 3495 Castleton Way North. Lexington. KY 40502. CALIFORNIA. Bay Area Skeptics. Wilma Russell. D.C CAPITAL AREA. National Capital Area LOUISIANA. Baton Rouge Proponents of Rational Secretary. 17722 Buti Park Court. Castro Valley. CA Skeptics, c/o D.W. "Chip" Denman, 8006 Inquiry and Scientific Methods (BR PRISM). Dick 94546. Center for Inquiry-West, 5519 Grosvenor Ave., Valley Street Silver Spring. MD 20910. Schroth, Director, 425 Carriage Way. Baton Rouge. LA Los Angeles. CA 90066 (Tel. 310-306-2847) East Bay http://www.ncas.org (301-587-3827). 70808-4828 (504-766-4747). Skeptics Society, Daniel Sabsay. Presidenl 70 Yosemite FLORIDA. Tampa Bay Skeptics. Gary Posner, 1113 MICHIGAN. Great Lakes Skeptics. Contact Loma J. Avenue #309. Oakland. CA 94611 (510-420-0202). Normandy Trace Rd.. Tampa, FL 33602 (813-221- Simmons. 31710 Cowan Road. Apt 103. Westland. Ml Sacramento Organization for Rational Thinking 3533), E-mail: garyposeaol.com. Web address: 48185-2366 (734-525-5731). Treaties Skeptics, Contact (SORT), Contact Ray Spangenburg/Kit Moser, 4024 http://member5.aol.c0m/tbskep/i ndex.html. Gary Barker. 3596 Butternut St. Saginaw, Ml 48604 (517- Knoll Top Court Carmrchael. CA 95608 (916-9780321). GEORGIA. Georgia Skeptics. Becky Long. President 7994502), E-mail: garyeearthvisionivsii.edu. Sacramento Skeptics Society, Terry Sandbek. 3550 2277 Winding Woods Dr.. Tucker. GA 30084. MINNESOTA. Minnesota Skeptics. Robert W. McCoy. Watt Ave, Suite 3. Sacramento, CA 95821 (530*68- ILLINOIS. Rational Examination Assoc of Lincoln 549 Turnpike Rd.. Golden Valley, MN 55416. St Kloud ESP Teaching Investigation Committee Contact: D. Sager, PO Box 603, Altamont. NY 12009. mittee of Pittsburgh (PICP). Richard Busch, Chair­ (SKEPTIC). Jerry Mertens. Coordinator, Psychology (518-861-6383). New York Area Skeptics (NYASk). man. 8209 Thompson Run Rd., Pittsburgh, PA 15237 Dept. St Cloud State Univ.. St. Cloud, MN S6301. Contact: Jeff Corey, 18 Woodland St., Huntington. (412-366-1000), E-mail: mindfulfttelerama.com Phila­ MISSOURI. Kansas City Committee for Skeptical NY 11743, e-mail: icorey0liu.edu. Western New delphia Association for Critical Thinking (PhACT), Inquiry, Verle Muhrer, Chairman, United Labor York Skeptics, Tim Madigan, Chairman. 3965 Eric Krieg. P.O. Box 1131, North Wales. PA 19454-0131, Building, 6301 Rockhill Road, Suite 412. Kansas City, Rensch Road.. Buffalo, NY 14228. Web: http://www.phact.org. Tel: (215) 885-2089. MO 64131. Gateway Skeptics, Chairperson, Steve NORTH CAROLINA. Triad Area Skeptics Club, TENNESSEE. Reality Fellowship. Contact: Carl Best. 6943 Amherst Ave.. University City, MO 63130. Contact: Eric Carlson, Physics Department, Wake Ledendedcer, 2123 Stonybrook Rd, Louisville, TN 37777. NEW ENGLAND. New England Skeptical Society Forest University, Winston-Salem. NC 27109. E-mail: TEXAS. Houston Association for Scientific Thinking (NESS). Contact: Steve Novella, MO, PO Box 185526. ecarlsonOwfu.edu. Tel: 336-758-4994. Web: http:// (HAST). Darrell Kachilla. PO Box 541314, Houston, TX Hamden. CT 06518, E-mail: ctskepticOcompuserve www.wfu.edu/-ecarlson/tasc. 77254. North Texas Skeptics, Joe Voelkering, com Connecticut Chapter. Contact: Jon Blumenfeld. E OHIO. South Shore Skeptics. Page Stephens. P.O. Box President, P.O. Box 111794, Carrollton. TX 75011-1794. mail: jontfjblumenfeld.com. Massachusetts Chapter, 5083. Cleveland. OH 44101 (216-676-4859). E-mail: WASHINGTON. The Society for Sensible Contact: Sheila Gibson (a/k/a "chairchick"), P.O. Box hpst9earthlink.net. Association for Rational Explanations. P.O. Box 45792, Seattle. WA 98145- 2537, Acton, MA 01720. E-mail: skepchikahotmail.com Thinking (Cincinnati area). Joseph F. Gastright, 0792. Tad Cook. Secretary. E-mail: tadOssc.com. New Hampshire Chapter, Contact: J.J. Kane, 89 Glen­ Contact. Ill Wallace Ave., Covington, KY 41014 WISCONSIN. Contact: Mike Neumann, 1835 N. 57th garry Drive. Stratham, NH 03885 Tel: 603-778-6873 (606-581-7315) Central Ohioans for Rational Street. Milwaukee. Wl 53208 (414-453-7425, E-mail: Inquiry (CORD. Russ Henshaw, President 200 W. NEW MEXICO. New Mexicans for Science and mike8omnifest.uwm.edu). Pacemont Rd, Columbus, OH 43202 (614-447-9247); Reason, David E Thomas, President, PO Box 1017, E-mail: henshaw_deyo6msn.com •Member, C5IC0P Executive Council Peralta, NM 87042, E-mail: detOrt66.com. John "Associate Member, CSICOP Executive Council Geohegan, Vice President, 450 Montclaire SE. OREGON. Oregonians for Rationality, Josh Reese. Albuquerque, NM 87108. PresTSec, 7555 Spring Valley Rd NW. Salem. OR The organizations listed above have aims similar to those of CSICOP but are independent and NEW YORK. Center for Inquiry-International, PO 97304 (503-364-6255). E-mail: joshrOncn com. Web: autonomous. Representatives of these organizations Box 703, Amherst. NY 14226. (Tel. 716-636-1425) http7Awww.teleport.com/-or4think cannot speak on behalf of CSICOP Please send updates Inquiring Skeptics of Upper New York (ISUNY). PENNSYLVANIA. Paranormal Investigating Corn- to Barry Karr, P.O. Box 703. Amherst, NY 14226-0703.

SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL CONSULTANTS

George Agogino, D**pt. of Anthropology. William Jarvis, professor of health promo­ Bela Scheiber,* systems analyst, Boulder, Eastern New Mexico University tion and public health, Loma Linda Uni­ Colo. Bill G. Aldridge, executive director, National versity, School of Public Health Chris Scott, statistician, London, England Science Teachers Assoc. I. W. Kelly, professor of psychology, Stuart D. Scott, Jr., associate professor of Gary Bauslaugh, educational consultant, University of Saskatchewan anthropology. SUNY, Buffalo Center for Curriculum, Transfer and Richard H. Lange, M.D.. Mohawk Valley Erwin M. Segal, professor of psychology, Technology, Victoria, B.C., Canada Physician Health Plan, Schenectady, N.Y. SUNY. 8uffalo Richard E. Berendzen. astronomer, Gerald A. Larue, professor of biblical history Carla Selby, anthropologist/archaeologist Washington, D.C. and archaeology, University of So. Steven N. Shore, associate professor and Martin Bridgstodc. lecturer. School of California chair. Dept. of Physics and Astronomy, Science. Griffith University. Brisbane, Bernard J. Leikind, staff scientist, GA Indiana Univ. South Bend Australia Technologies Inc., San Diego Barry Singer, psychologist, Eugene, Oregon Richard Busch, magician, Pittsburgh, Pa. William M. London, consumer advocate, Waclaw Szybalski, professor, McArdle Shawn Carlson, physicist, San Diego, Calif. Fort Lee, New Jersey Laboratory, University of Wisconsin- Charles J. Cazeau, geologist, Deary, Idaho Thomas R. McDonough, lecturer in engi­ Madison Roger B. Culver, professor of astronomy. neering, Caltech, and SETI Coordinator of Ernest H. Taves. psychoanalyst, Cambridge, Colorado State Univ. the Planetary Society Massachusetts Felix Ares de Bias, professor of computer James E. McGaha. Major, USAF; pilot David E. Thomas, physicist, mathematician. science. University of Basque, San Sebastian, Joel A. Moskowitz, director of medical psy­ Peralta, New Mexico Spain chiatry. Calabasas Mental Health Services. Sarah G. Thomason, professor of linguistics. Los Angeles. Michael R. Dennett, writer, investigator, University of Pittsburgh Federal Way, Washington Jan Willem Nienhuys, mathematician. Univ. Neil deGrasse Tyson, astrophysicist, of Eindhoven, the Netherlands Sid Deutsch, consultant, Sarasota, Fla. Princeton University and the Hayden J. Dommanget astronomer. Royale John W. Patterson, professor of materials Planetarium science and engineering, Iowa State Observatory, Brussels, Belgium Richard Wiseman. Senior Research Fellow in University Nahum J. Duker, assistant professor of psychology, University of Hertfordshire Steven Pinker, professor and director of the pathology. Temple University Center for Cognitive Neuroscience, MIT CSICOP Barbara Eisenstadt. psychologist, educator, James Pomerantz, Provost, and professor of Subcommittees clinician. East Greenbush, NY cognitive and linguistic sciences. Brown Astrology Subcommittee: Chairman, I. W. John F. Fischer, forensic analyst. Orlando, Fla. Univ. Robert E. Funk, anthropologist. New York Kelly, Dept. of Educational Psychology, 28 Gary P. Posner, M.D., Tampa, Fla. Campus Drive, Saskatoon, Sask, Canada. State Museum & Science Service Daisie Radner, professor of philosophy, 57N-OX1 Eileen Gambrill, professor of social welfare. SUNY, Buffalo University of California at Berkeley Council for Media Integrity: Network Michael Radner, professor of philosophy, Director, Barry Karr, CSICOP, P.O. Box 703, Sylvio Garattini, director, Mario Negri McMaster University. Hamilton, Ontario, Amherst, NY 14226-0703. Pharmacology Institute, Milan, Italy Canada Laurie Godfrey, anthropologist. University of Health Claims Subcommittee: Co-chair­ Robert H. Romer. professor of physics. men, William Jarvis, Professor of Health Massachusetts Amherst College Promotion and Education. School of Public Gerald Goldin. mathematician. Rutgers Milton A. Rothman, physicist. Philadelphia, Health, Loma Linda University, Loma Linda, University, New Jersey Pa CA 93350, and Stephen Barrett M.D.. P.O. Donald Goldsmith, astronomer; president. Karl Sabbagh, journalist, Richmond. Surrey, Box 1747, Allentown, PA 18105. Interstellar Media England Parapsychology Subcommittee: Chairman. Clyde F. Herreid. professor of biology, SUNY, Robert J. Samp, assistant professor of educa­ Ray Hyman.* Psychology Dept.. Univ. of Buffalo tion and medicine. University of Wisconsin- Oregon. Eugene, OR 97402. Terence M. Mines, professor of psychology. Madison UFO Subcommittee: Chairman, Philip J. Pace University. Pleasantville. N.Y. Amardeo Samoa,- project supervisor. Klass,* 404 "N" Street S.W.. Washington. Michael Hutchinson, author; SXEPTICAI EURESCOM; executive director, GWUP, DC. 20024. INQUIBE" representative. Europe Germany Philip A. lanna, assoc. professor of astron­ Steven D. Schafersman, asst. professor of •Member. CSICOP Executive Council omy. Univ. of Virginia geology, Miami Univ., Ohio "Associate Member. CSICOP Executive Council iJ JTJ 7 International . to promote and defend reason, science, and freedom of inquiry in all areas of human endeavor. P.O. Box 703 • Amherst, NY 14226 • (716) 636-1425

THE COMMITTEE FOR THE SCIENTIFIC INVESTIGATION OF CLAIMS OF THE PARANORMAL

The Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal encour­ Center for Inquiry—Rockies ages the critical investigation of paranormal and fringe-science claims from a P.O. Box 2019, Boulder, CO 80306 responsible, scientific point of view and disseminates factual information about the results of such inquiries to the scientific community, the media, and the public. It Tel.: (303) 449-7537 also promotes science and scientific inquiry, critical thinking, science education, and the use of reason in examining important issues. To carry out these objectives the Center for Inquiry—Midwest Committee: United Labor Building • Sponsors publications 6301 Rockhill Rd., Suite 412, Kansas City, MO 64131 • Conducts public outreach efforts • Maintains an international network of people and groups interested in critically Tel.: (816) 822-9840 examining paranormal, fringe-science, and other claims, and in contributing to consumer education Center for Inquiry—West • Encourages research by objective and impartial inquiry in areas where it is needed 5519 Grosvenor Ave., Los Angeles, CA 90066 • Convenes conferences and meetings • Conducts educational programs at all age levels Tel.: (310) 306-2847 • Does not reject claims on a priori grounds, antecedent to inquiry, but examines them objectively and carefully Center for Inquiry—Moscow The Committee is a nonprofit scientific Professor Valerii A. Kuvakin and educational organization. Skeptical Inquirer 117421 Russia, Moscow, Novatorov 18-2-2 The SKEPTICAL INOUOIER is its official journal. .., •*«•••• ••>• »tu«i >•> IUUI