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Strong Growth to Continue in 2018, Maintain "Outperform" 2018年将继续保持强劲增长,维持“跑赢大市”

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Strong Growth to Continue in 2018, Maintain 股 票 研 究 Sector Report: Gaming Sector Noah Hudson Equity Research 行业报告：博彩行业 +86 2397 6684 [email protected] 21 December 2017 Strong Growth to Continue in 2018, Maintain "Outperform" 2018年将继续保持强劲增长,维持“跑赢大市” 行 We forecast 2018 Macau gross gaming revenue ("GGR") growth of Rating: Outperform 业 15%-17%. We expect new gaming capacity coming online in 2018 to be a Maintained significant growth catalyst. MGM China (02282 HK)'s new US$2.9 billion 报 评级： 跑赢大市 (维持) MGM Cotai will open on 29 Jan. 2018 and will be ramping up for the 告 whole year. Also in 1H18, Morpheus Hotel at City of Dreams will open. In Sector Report 2018, the HK-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge will open and the Macau International Airport is expected to increase capacity from 6 mn Stock Performance 股价表现 passengers to between 8 mn to 9 mn passengers. Melco Resorts & Entertainment (MLCO US) will open its new flagship Morpheus Hotel at the Studio City property. Another major catalyst in 2018 will be the opening of the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge (also called the Delta Bridge). % return GGR per visitor increased by 13.9% YoY to MOP8,233 for the first 10 120.0 months of 2017. Higher GGR per visitor is supported by a greater 100.0 number of higher quality visitors as indicated by more overnight visitors, 80.0 60.0 more airplane and helicopter visitors and longer duration of stay. 2017 40.0 year to date through October number of visitors to Macau increased by 20.0 4.6% YoY while the number of air arrivals increased by 12.7% YoY, the 0.0 number of overnight visitors increased by 10.4% YoY and the average (20.0) 证 stay duration increased by 3.4% YoY. At the end of 3Q17, there were (40.0) Dec/16 Feb/17 Apr/17 Jun/17 Aug/17 Oct/17 Dec/17 告 52.1% more hotel projects under construction in Macau compared with at 券 HSI SJM Hds. the end of 3Q16. More hotel room capacity will be added in 2018 making Galaxy Ent. Wynn Macau 研 报 visitation to Macau easier for the higher number of overnight visitors that Melco Resorts MGM China Sands China are expected. 究 究 Source: Bloomberg. 报 We recommend to "Buy" Melco Resorts & Entertainment (MLCO US) 研 Sector Valuation and Wynn Macau (01128 HK). We also recommend to "Accumulate" 告 行业估值 券 quity Research Report Sands China (01928 HK) and MGM China (02282 HK). EV to BEst EBITDA (Next 4 Quarters) E Mean 证 我们预计 2018 年澳门博彩总收入增速为 15%-17%。我们预期 2018 年新上线的博彩 20 +1 ST. DEV. -1 ST. DEV. 物业容量将成为重要的增长催化剂。美高梅中国（02282 HK）耗资 29 亿美元的美高 梅路氹物业将会在 2018 年 1 月 29 日开幕，并将在一整年持续扩张运营。2018 年上 18 半年，摩珀斯酒店将会在新濠天地物业开幕。在 2018 年，港珠澳大桥将会开通，并 16 且澳门国际机场目前 万的旅客容量预期将会增加至 到 万。 600 800 900 14 旅客人均博彩收入在 2017 年前 10 个月同比增长 13.9%至 8,233 澳门元。更高的旅 12 客人均博彩收入的支撑因素来自更多的高质量访客，比如留宿旅客、飞机旅客和直升 博 10 机旅客等，以及更长的逗留时间。截至 2017 年 10 月，访问澳门旅客数量同比增加了 8 彩 4.6%，而乘飞机来的旅客数量同比增长了 12.7%；另外，留宿旅客数量同比增长了 Sector 10.4%，并且平均逗留时间同比延长了 3.4%。2017 年 3 季度末，在建酒店客房数相 6 行 Dec/12 Dec/13 Dec/14 Dec/15 Dec/16 Dec/17 比于 2016 年 3 季度末增加了 52.1%。2018 年更多的酒店客房容量有利于访澳留宿旅 Source: Bloomberg. 业 客数量的进一步提高。 Gaming 我们建议“买入”新濠博亚（MLCO US），“买入”永利澳门（01128 HK）。也建 议“收集”金沙中国（01928 HK）和美高梅中国（02282 HK）。 Company[Table_CompanyFinance] Name Code Price Rating 17 PER 18 PER 19 PER 17 ROE 17 P/B 17 Yield 公司名称 编号 股价(HK$) 投资评级 市盈率(x) 市盈率(x) 市盈率(x) 净资产收益(%) 市净率(x) 股息率(%) Galaxy Entertainment 00027 63.100 Neutral 28.8 25.2 23.8 18.4 5.2 1.2 Melco Resorts & Entertainment MLCO US$28.470 Buy 31.6 27.1 22.5 12.0 4.7 1.4 MGM China 02282 24.000 Accumulate 38.0 33.5 22.5 29.7 10.8 1.7 Sands China 01928 40.250 Accumulate 26.9 22.9 20.6 32.3 9.1 5.2 Wynn Macau 01128 24.750 Buy 33.8 24.5 21.2 141.1 44.9 3.7 Weighted Average. 市值加权平均 30.1 25.3 22.0 40.7 12.6 3.0 Source: the Companies, Bloomberg, Guotai Junan International. See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 19 Gaming Sector Contents Macau Gross Gaming Revenue ......................................................................................................................... 3 Macau Infrastructure Developments .................................................................................................................. 5 Macau Hotels ........................................................................................................................................................ 7 Macau Casinos Developments ........................................................................................................................... 9 December21 2017 Macau Visitors ..................................................................................................................................................... 11 Investment Suggestions .................................................................................................................................... 15 Appendix .............................................................................................................................................................. 17 博彩行业 Gaming SectorGaming Report Sector See the last page for disclaimer Page 2 of 19 Gaming Sector Macau Gross Gaming Revenue We forecast 2018 Macau gross gaming revenue ("GGR") growth of 15%-17%. Despite the strong 19.5% YoY growth in Macau's GGR during the first 11 months of 2017, monthly GGR amounts are still well below the highs seen in 2014. This leaves significant room for growth as the sector just catches up with previous GGR levels. We expect new gaming capacity coming online in 2018 to be a significant growth catalyst. MGM China (02282 HK)'s new US$2.9 billion MGM Cotai will open on 29 Jan. 2018 and will be ramping up for the whole year. Later in 1H18, Melco Resorts & Entertainment (MLCO US) will open its new flagship Morpheus Hotel at the Studio City property. Another major catalyst in 2018 will be the opening of the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge (also called the Delta Bridge). December21 2017 During the first 11 months of 2017, Macau's GGR increased by 19.5% YoY, surpassing our full-year forecast of 16.5% growth. The strong growth was supported by the continued ramp up of two new casinos (Wynn Palace and The Parisian Macao) opened in late 2016, new infrastructure development (Taipa Maritime Terminal opened on 1 June 2017), and also a low comparison base after GGR had declined for three consecutive years. Figure-1: Macau Monthly Mass GGR Amount & Growth Figure-2: Macau Quarterly Total, VIP & Mass GGR Growth MOP mn Mass GGR YoY (R) Total GGR (YoY) VIP (YoY) Mass (YoY) 14 20% 40% 34.8% 35.0% 12 10% 30% 21.8% 10 16.8% 21.9% 0% 20% 12.7% 8 -10% 7.4% 10% 3.9% 13.0% 6 1.2% 10.2% 8.5% 8.1% -20% -1.1% 7.3% 4 0% -9.2% -1.2% 2 -30% -10% - -40% -20% -15.7% 2014-6 2015-6 2016-6 2017-6 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 Source: Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau of Macao SAR. Source: Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau of Macao SAR. Figure-3: Macau Monthly VIP GGR Amount & Growth Figure-4: Macau Monthly Mass GGR Amount & Growth Mass GGR YoY (R) MOP mn VIP GGR YoY (R) MOP mn 18 60% 17.0% 博彩行业 52.8% 12 20% 16 52.2% 15.9% 50% 10 13.2% 14 12.6% 15% 36.2% 12 40% 8 10 11.4% 10% 5.3% SectorGaming 35.0% 30% 6 5.8% 8 22.5% 22.4% 30.1% 4.0% 5% 6 12.9% 20% 4 5.9% 20.4% 4 8.7% 19.2% 19.3% 10% 2 0% 2 2.5% -1.5% -3.2% - 0% - -5% Source: Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau of Macao SAR, Source: Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau of Macao SAR, Bloomberg. Bloomberg. Note: Monthly VIP and Mass are estimates from IMC, a Macau based Note: Monthly VIP and Mass are estimates from IMC, a Macau based consultancy. consultancy. Despite the rapid GGR growth, monthly GGR amounts have still been significantly less than the highs reached in 2013 and 2014, indicating further room for recovery. 2017 year to date through October (November data is not yet available), VIP GGR and Mass GGR increased by 29.0% YoY and 8.1% YoY, respectively. So far in 2017, total monthly GGR was the highest in Oct. at MOP26.6 billion, which is still 29.9% less than the all-time high GRR amount of MOP38.0 billion reached in Feb. 2014. The gap is even larger for the VIP segment. Year to date, monthly VIP GGR was the highest in Oct. at Report MOP15.9 billion, which is still 36.5% less than the high of MOP25.0 billion reached in Feb. 2014. We think this implies that there is still significant room for continued growth in 2018 as the sector catches up with previous highs. Sector See the last page for disclaimer Page 3 of 19 Gaming Sector Figure-5: Macau Monthly Total GGR Amount & Growth Figure-6: Macau Monthly VIP GGR Amount & Growth MOP mn Total GGR (L) YoY (R) MOP mn VIP GGR YoY (R) 40 50% 18 80% 40% 35 16 60% 30% 14 30 20% 40% 12 25 10% 0% 10 20% 20 -10% 8 0% 15 -20% 6 -30% -20% December21 2017 10 4 -40% -40% 5 -50% 2 0 -60% - -60% 2013-11 2014-11 2015-11 2016-11 2017-11 2014-6 2015-6 2016-6 2017-6 Source: Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau of Macao SAR. Source: Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau of Macao SAR. GGR per visitor has increased YoY every quarter since 3Q16. GGR per visitor increased by 7.0%, 15.8% and 19.4% in 1Q17, 2Q17 and 3Q17, respectively. With the exception of Feb. 2016 (due to Chinese New Year effect), GGR per visitor decreased YoY for 25 consecutive months from June 2014 to July 2016. Then in August 2016, GGR per visitor increased by 6.4% YoY, followed by YoY increases in every month since then, with the exception of Jan.
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