04 December 2013 Asia Pacific/Australia Equity Research Casinos & Gaming (Casino & Gaming (AU)) Crown (CWN.AX / CWN AU) Rating (from Outperform) UNDERPERFORM* DOWNGRADE RATING Price (04 Dec 13, A$) 16.65 Target price (A$) 16.40¹ Market cap. (A$mn) 12,127.76 Pause in the rally Yr avg. mthly trading (A$mn) 433 Last month's trading (A$mn) 448 Projected return: ■ We believe Crown will UNDERPERFORM in the short-term as Macau Capital gain (%) -1.5 gaming stocks have become expensive. We lower our rating from Dividend yield (net %) 2.2 Outperform. We upgrade our FY14 NPAT 8% on a strong MPEL 3Q. Our Total return (%) 0.72 DCF-based target price remains unchanged as the uplift in our MPEL 52-week price range 17.2 - 10.1 * Stock ratings are relative to the relevant country benchmark. valuation was offset by weakness in the domestic casinos as reported at ¹Target price is for 12 months. CWN’s AGM. CWN reported that main floor gaming across its Australia casinos was in-line with the prior year for the 17 weeks ending October 27. It Research Analysts was implied from the AGM language that VIP was running below the pcp. Larry Gandler 61 3 9280 1855 ■ For calendar 2014 we factor 6% gaming revenue growth for MPEL – a
[email protected] somewhat slower pace than the 22% for 2013E. Our US$32.50 MPEL DCF Kenny Lau, CFA equates to 12.1x 2014E EBITDA. Currently, MPEL is trading at 13.1x 2014E 852 2101 7914 EBITDA. Also, the margin expansion phase may be slowing as mass market
[email protected] table hold rates rose from the low-20s to the low-30s by 2013E.