DOCSLIB.ORG

2020-Analysts-Presentation-H1.Pdf

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text

Load more

HALF-YEAR RESULTS 2020 SUMMARY I. INTRODUCTION & BUSINESS MODEL II. ACTIVITY H1 2020 III. H1 RESULTS & GUIDANCE 2020 IV. PERSPECTIVES APPENDIX 2 I. INTRODUCTION & BUSINESS MODEL Paris Carré Suffren Headquarters of AON France AN UNPRECEDENTED CRISIS …BUT NO FINANCIAL CRISIS ECONOMIC DOWNTURN IN EUROPE… THANKS TO SUSTAINED LOW RATES LOCKDOWN AND TRAVEL RESTRICTIONS GERMANY 10-YEAR BOND YIELD 5% 4% -8.3% GDP forecasted in 20201 3% -0.45% 2% % GDP GROWTH EUROPEAN UNION >3 IN JULY 2020 2% 1% IN 2007-09 -2% 0% -6% -1% -10% 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2018 2020F 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2018 2020 1 Source: European commission 4 COVIVIO: A DIVERSIFIED MODEL ABLE TO GET THROUGH THIS CRISIS €25 bn portfolio (€17 bn group share) 60% 24% 15% OFFICES RESIDENTIAL HOTELS €10.2 bn Group share €4.1 bn Group share €2.4 bn Group share (€12.4 at 100%) (€6.4 at 100%) (€6.2 at 100%) High-quality assets in strategic locations… Strategic portfolio …in Paris, Milan & Germany top 5 cities… with major operators… …attracting a solid tenant base … facing conjunctural downturn Resilient revenues Resilient values despite & value growth potential impact on 2020 revenues % breakdown in Group share. Non strategic = 1% of the portfolio 5 H1 2020 KEY FIGURES OPERATING PROFILE QUALITY HEALTHY PORTFOLIO DEBT PROFILE % occupancy % % 96 rate +1.0 41.1 like-for-like value growth LTV years average 7.1 firm lease length 6.1x % LfL rental growth €400 m ICR excl. hotels +1.9 new disposals Group share Rating S&P with 15% margin % LfL revenue BBB+ -51 on Hotels stable outlook 6 II. H1 2020 ACTIVITY ► Asset rotation acquisition, disposal & development ► Letting activity & rent collection ► Negotiations on hotels leases Paris 8th Jean Goujon INTEGRATION OF GODEWIND COMPLETED… GODEWIND A €1.2 BN PORTFOLIO WITH 10 ASSETS Frankfurt – Airport Center Frankfurt – City Gate Frankfurt – Comcom % 89 of shares held % +10 put option granted to one shareholder Delisting effective Frankfurt – Y2 Düsseldorf – Herzog T. Düsseldorf – Airport Center since May 14th Integration of Godewind teams completed APPRAISAL VALUE at end-June Hamburg – Zeughaus Hamburg – Pentahof Munich – Eight Dornach and Sunsquare +3% VS ACQUISITION PRICE 8 …LEADING TO A €1.7 BN PORTFOLIO IN TOP 5 GERMAN CITIES €1.4 bn group share 460,000 M² IN THE TOP 5 GERMAN CITIES... …IN A MARKET WITH SOUND FUNDAMENTALS2 360,000 m² of existing 3.1% Hamburg assets valued ~€4,100/m² vacancy rate 19% Berlin Dusseldorf % 100,000 m² of % 21 60% 21 development potential pre-let on future €0.6 bn Group share of supply development cost1 Frankfurt 31% stable including Alexanderplatz project Prime & average rents Munich 8% 1 Total estimated cost including land value 2 Source Colliers 9 REINFORCEMENT IN GERMANY OVER THE PAST YEARS 2015 H1 2020 A PREDOMINANTLY More German A EUROPEAN FRENCH PORTFOLIO Residential INTEGRATED PORTFOLIO (+€2.1 bn Group share) Portfolio geographic breakdown Building a prime portfolio Portfolio geographic breakdown (31/12/2014) Structurally resilient (evolution vs 31/12/2014) With potential through rental growth & development 36% 61% 40% +19 pts -21 pts €16.4 bn 17% Move into German €25.3 bn (€9.8 bn (€16.9 bn Group share) Offices Group share) (+€1.4 bn Group share) Relying on our existing platform 2% To build a critical size portfolio 6% 18% 20% With potential through asset +4 pts - 2 pts management & development 10 DISPOSALS / €400 MILLION WITH +15% MARGIN on track to >€600 million target for 2020 Disposals 100% Group Gross Margin H1 2020 share Yield (Group Q1 2020 (Group share) share) €164 m at 7% margin France offices €239 m €239 m 4.7% 11% Italy offices €127 m €111 m 3.5% 22% Disposals signed mainly Germany €19 m €12 m 0.9% 81% Residential in Q2 2020 Hotels €24 m €11 m 6.5% 16% Non-strategic €59 m €26 m 6.6% -0.4% (retail) Q2 2020 €236 m TOTAL €469 m €400 m 4.4% 14.6% at 21% margin Target in Group share 11 FOCUS ON OFFICES DISPOSALS Disposal agreements on mature office assets in France & Italy Mature assets developed by Covivio between % 2013 and 2017 90 Nanterre - Respiro value 11,170 m² / delivered in 2015 creation since delivery Successful asset of the assets management Incl. disposal margin -Maintaining high occupancy: >99% -Securing long-leases with key partners of Covivio: >7 years WALT Nancy - Origin Lyon Villeurbanne - Le Patio 3,600 m² / delivered in 2017 15% 12,755 m² / delivered in 2013 margin Value creation on disposal vs potential fully end-2019 value extracted Milan - Cernaia 8,300 m² / delivered in 2017 12 DEVELOPMENTS / TIMELINE EXTENDED BUT VALUE POTENTIAL CONFIRMED… MINIMAL POSTPONEMENT OF DELIVERIES Only +3 months on average Flow with short-term impact on 2020 revenue Montrouge Close to no impact on cost 100% pre-let Maximum +1% Future HQ of Edvance, PROFITABILITY CONFIRMED subsidiary of EDF 6.0% target yield on cost >30% target value creation LETTING RISK UNDER CONTROL 51% pre-let on average incl. 75% on next 12-months deliveries See appendix page 59 for more details 13 …THANKS TO STRATEGIC LOCATIONS OF OUR PROJECTS €1.3 bn €0.3 bn €0.2 bn OFFICES IN FRANCE Group share OFFICES IN MILAN Group share RESIDENTIAL IN BERLIN Group share Paris, Greater Paris Mainly CBD & In sought-after districts and city-center of Symbiosis area major regional cities M3 M2 Maciachini Levallois ALIS Paris 17th So Pop M1 Paris 17th N2 City Life Duca d’Aosta Paris 8th Jean Goujon M5 Lambrate / Forlanini Paris 5th Gobelins Via Dante M4 Lorenteggio Via Unione Montrouge Flow Linate Airport Chatillon IRO Meudon Ducasse Navigli The Sign Symbiosis DS campus Cœur d’Orly Milanofiori extension Major business & Lyon CBD: districts Silex 2 Line 14 of the Grand Paris 14 Line 15 OFFICE LETTING ACTIVITY / 114,000 M² LET & RENEWED Slowdown in office market activity: -35% take-up in France, Italy & Germany1… … but Covivio’s letting activity remained active 30,800 m² of new leases for 8 years firm on average Paris Carré Suffren Bordeaux Cité Numérique Turin Corso Ferrucci Munich Sunsquare 1,700 m² let 2,000 m² let 6,420 m² let 5,000 m² let 83,000 m² +4.2 years lease extension renewed incl. 38,200 m² negotiated with tenants +2.2% vs previous IFRS rent in the context of the lockdown 28,190 m² Essentially in Paris and La Défense vacated 15 1 H1 2020 vs H1 2019. Source CBRE & Colliers with -39% in Greater Paris, -31% in Milan and -35% in Germany GERMAN RESIDENTIAL / EXPLOITING OUR GROWTH DRIVERS ACTIVE RELETTING PRIVATIZATIONS DESPITE THE LOCKDOWN OF EXISTING & NEW UNITS 1,250 units relet in H1 2020 52 existing units sold in Berlin €19 million1 at €4,400 / m² Mostly in NRW, Dresden & Leipzig +81% margin on book value with +15% increase on previous rent In Berlin, activity slowed down in Q2 70 new units pre-sold on the pipeline 2 due to the implementation of the new €29 million at €5,925 / m² regulation +50% margin on development cost 1 €12 m Group share 16 2 €15 m Group Share STRONG RENT COLLECTION THANKS TO A SOLID TENANT BASE EXCLUDING HOTELS QUALITY TENANTS % 91 large corporates on offices & residential tenants Offices & Residential Retail €250 m €23 gross rental income gross rental income 96.4% & 60% collection rate collection rate =€15 m =€240 m Low amount of provisions (€1.5 m) essentially linked to small tenants €5.5 m of rent provisioned 17 HOTELS CLOSED, TRIGGERING NEGOTIATIONS WITH OPERATORS NEGOTIATIONS % of Covivio FINALIZED ~80 hotels closed with operators representing 66% during the lockdown of leased hotel revenues % RevPar -65 on Covivio variable leases & management contracts Help operators Switching to monthly payment with short-term liquidity Granting rent-free period 65% of hotels Reopening opened at end-June but occupancy Against lease extensions since June rates remain low to secure cash-flows +4 years firm lease length (10 to 20%) 14.7 years firm lease length on average for hotels in lease 18 III. H1 2020 RESULTS & GUIDANCE 2020 ► Revenues ► Financial results Berlin residential - Kreuzberg III. H1 2020 RESULTS & GUIDANCE 2020 ► Revenues ► Financial results Berlin residential - Kreuzberg H1 2020 REVENUES / +1.9% LFL EXCLUDING HOTELS Revenues Revenues Revenues % change Average Occupancy rate H1 2020, €million H1 2019 H1 2020 H1 2020 like-for-like lease term % Group share 100% Group share Group share firm, in years France Offices 115.1 121.0 105.7 +1.0% 95.8% 4.5 Italy Offices 72.9 84.2 64.2 +2.0% 97.8% 7.1 Germany Offices 3.3 27.3 18.4 +2.8% 79.0% 5.1 Germany Residential 76.5 122.5 78.6 +2.9% 98.4% n.a. SUB-TOTAL OFFICES & RESIDENTIAL 267.8 355.1 266.9 +1.9% 95.5% 5.4 Hotels in Europe 59.1 73.1 28.5 -50.5% 100%1 14.7 TOTAL STRATEGIC ACTIVITIES 326.9 428.2 295.4 -7.6% 96.1% 7.1 Non-strategic 11.9 10.4 7.0 -3.5% 97.8% 5.7 TOTAL 338.8 438.6 302.3 -7.5% 96.1% 7.1 1 On lease properties 21 OFFICES / +1.4% LFL RENTAL GROWTH 60% OF COVIVIO’S PORTFOLIO Office portfolio in France & Italy: sound like-for-like rental growth & high occupancy 35% Covivio Driven by indexation: +1.0% % occupancy portfolio 96 Good performance in Milan1: +3.3% 17% driven by 2019 reletting % occupancy Slight increase outside Milan: +0.6% 98 Office portfolio in Germany: integration of Godewind Historical portfolio in Berlin2: +2.8% LfL Impact of Wework lease contract termination % in Düsseldorf (Herzogterrassen): 8 Occupancy of Godewind portfolio: 79% -12 pts of occupancy Financial agreement reached with WeWork 1 LfL Milan offices excl.
Recommended publications
  • The Discounted Value of Human Lives Lost Due to COVID-19 in France

    The Discounted Value of Human Lives Lost Due to COVID-19 in France

    F1000Research 2020, 9:1247 Last updated: 06 SEP 2021 RESEARCH ARTICLE The discounted value of human lives lost due to COVID-19 in France [version 1; peer review: 2 approved] Joses Muthuri Kirigia 1, Rose Nabi Deborah Karimi Muthuri 2, Lenity Honesty Kainyu Nkanata1, Newton Gitonga Muthuri3 1Department of Research, African Sustainable Development Research Consortium (ASDRC), Nairobi, Kenya 2Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa 3Chandaria School of Business, United States International University – Africa, Nairobi, Kenya v1 First published: 15 Oct 2020, 9:1247 Open Peer Review https://doi.org/10.12688/f1000research.26975.1 Latest published: 15 Oct 2020, 9:1247 https://doi.org/10.12688/f1000research.26975.1 Reviewer Status Invited Reviewers Abstract Background: This study estimates the total discounted value of 1 2 human lives lost (TDVHL) due to COVID-19 in France as of 14 September 2020. version 1 Methods: The human capital approach (HCA) model was used to 15 Oct 2020 report report estimate the TDVHL of the 30,916 human lives lost due to COVID-19 in France; i.e., assuming a discount rate of 3% and the national average 1. Patricia Akweongo , University of Ghana, life expectancy at birth of 83.13 years. To test the robustness of the estimated TDVHL, the model was rerun (a) using 5% and 10% discount Legon, Ghana rates, while holding the French average life expectancy constant; and (b) consecutively substituting national life expectancy with the world 2. Neda Soleimanvandiazar , Iran average life expectancy of 73.2 years and the world highest life University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran expectancy of 88.17 years.
  • Information Guide France

    Information Guide France

    Information Guide France A guide to information sources on the Republic of France, with hyperlinks to information within European Sources Online and on external websites Contents Information sources in the ESO database ......................................................... 2 General information ....................................................................................... 2 Agricultural information .................................................................................. 2 Competition policy information ........................................................................ 2 Culture and language information .................................................................... 2 Defence and security information .................................................................... 2 Economic information ..................................................................................... 3 Education information .................................................................................... 3 Employment information ................................................................................ 4 Energy information ........................................................................................ 4 Environmental information .............................................................................. 4 European policies and relations with the European Union .................................... 4 Geographic information and maps ................................................................... 5 Health information
  • The Retail Property Market

    The Retail Property Market

    RETAIL SEPTEMBER 2020 THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKET FRANCE SUMMARY 06. Covid-19: What is 03. its impact on the economy and Introduction consumption? 53. 13. The investment market Rental market and retailer strategies • Focus on DNVBs 62. 32. 47. Contacts High street market Retail complexes: trends • Focus on the luxury market and projects THE FRENCH RETAIL PROPERTY MARKET | SEPTEMBER 2020 INTRODUCTION The outbreak of the Covid-19 epidemic shook the French market by distribution formats. Since the easing of lockdown, the restart has also What are the trends in forcing most businesses to close their doors in mid-March. Although they been very uneven depending on different product categories. Despite the the French retail gradually reopened after two months of lockdown, the situation has by no severity of the crisis, some of them, better adapted to the new market property market four means returned to normal. The state of emergency was officially lifted on conditions, managed to hold their ground. 10th July 2020, but restrictions will be brought back if a second wave of months after the end the virus looks likely. For this reason, masks became mandatory in all In this respect, the taking into account of the expectations of the French of lockdown? confined spaces as of the 20th July, and then outdoors in some cities, people and the ability of retailers to adapt their model are more than ever notably Paris, since the end of August. In addition to other restrictions conditions for success, at a time when the health crisis is accelerating (closure of fitting rooms, limits on the number of customers in stores, changes in lifestyles and consumption patterns.
  • Complete Report

    Complete Report

    1 PEW RESEARCH CENTER FOR RELEASE MARCH 31, 2021 BY Richard Wike, Laura Silver, Shannon Schumacher and Aidan Connaughton FOR MEDIA OR OTHER INQUIRIES: Richard Wike, Director, Global Attitudes Research Stefan Cornibert, Communications Manager 202.419.4372 www.pewresearch.org RECOMMENDED CITATION Pew Research Center, March 2021, “Many in U.S., Western Europe Say Their Political System Needs Major Reform” www.pewresearch.org 2 PEW RESEARCH CENTER About Pew Research Center Pew Research Center is a nonpartisan fact tank that informs the public about the issues, attitudes and trends shaping America and the world. It does not take policy positions. The Center conducts public opinion polling, demographic research, content analysis and other data-driven social science research. It studies U.S. politics and policy; journalism and media; internet, science and technology; religion and public life; Hispanic trends; global attitudes and trends; and U.S. social and demographic trends. All of the Center’s reports are available at www.pewresearch.org. Pew Research Center is a subsidiary of The Pew Charitable Trusts, its primary funder. © Pew Research Center 2021 www.pewresearch.org 3 PEW RESEARCH CENTER How we did this This report examines people’s trust in government and satisfaction with democracy, as well as their attitudes toward elected officials and political reform. For this analysis, we use data from nationally representative telephone surveys of 4,069 adults from Nov. 10 to Dec. 23, 2020, in the U.S., France, Germany and the UK. In addition to the survey, Pew Research Center conducted focus groups from Aug. 19 to Nov. 20, 2019, in cities across the U.S.
  • The Annual Report 2020 Foreign Investment in France

    The Annual Report 2020 Foreign Investment in France

    Annual Report 2020 Foreign investment in France 2020 Contents 6 2 FOREWORD France, 8 a resilient economy EDITORIAL 10 20 2020 SUMMARY INVESTORS TRUST FRANCE AS A PLACE TO SET UP BUSINESS 31 NUMEROUS PARTNERSHIPS AND FACILITY UPGRADES STRENGTHEN FRANCE’S ECONOMY 1 34 HOW BUSINESS FRANCE RESPONDED International context TO BUSINESSES' NEEDS 4 4 The contribution of foreign subsidiaries to the French economy 3 Regional attractiveness in 2020 5 38 Source country FOREIGN INVESTMENTS MADE THROUGHOUT FRANCE’S REGIONS overviews 46 FRANCE’S INCREASING ATTRACTIVENESS IN ACTIVITIES WITH HIGH VALUE ADDED 58 PROJECTS IN A VARIETY OF SECTORS 64 ATTRACTIVENESS DIFFERENTIATED 6 BY REGIONAL SPECIALIZATIONS Appendices 5 RAPPORT 2020 - BUSINESS FRANCE INVESTISSEMENTS INTERNATIONAUX EN FRANCE "Our goal ultimately remains the same: to make France the most attractive country in Europe." Bruno Le Maire Franck Riester Minister for the Economy and Finance Minister Delegate reporting to the Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs, with responsibility for Foreign Trade and Economic Attractiveness 6 PREFACE The 2020 Annual Report on Foreign with today’s world of work. With two This plan, which invests in strategic Investment in France was eagerly major reforms in particular, the PACTE sectors and associated skills, was rolled awaited. Firstly, as in 2019 France had Act of 2019, relating to business growth out quickly, with €11 billion having been become Europe’s leading country in and transformation, and the ASAP Act pledged at the end of 2020. We are terms of attractiveness; and secondly, as of 2020, relating to the acceleration and accelerating its implementation in 2021, the Covid-19 crisis had generated an simplification of public action, we have with the aim of drawing on an additional unprecedented decline in investment made life even easier for businesses, by €40 billion in funds.