California’s Earthquake Preparedness Problem, Challenge and Solution
Seismic Risk Mitigation Leadership Forum San Francisco, California May 2-3, 2011
Christopher Nance Chief Communications Officer California Earthquake Authority
Mark Benthien Director of Communication, Education and Outreach Southern California Earthquake Center Executive Director, California Earthquake Country Alliance California has an earthquake-preparedness problem! Earthquake Preparedness Research Experts
Linda Bourque, Ph.D.
University of California at Los Angeles
Dennis Mileti, Ph.D.
University of Colorado at Boulder 2008 Survey Led by Dr. Bourque
• Produced baseline data describing how prepared California residents are for earthquakes and where they get their information about preparedness and mitigation.
Primary Funders –
California Seismic Safety Commission (CSSC)
California Emergency Management Agency (CalEMA) 2008 Survey Results
• California residents are exposed to numerous ongoing programs and recommended actions designed to increase household earthquake preparedness and mitigation.
• Most of the actions Californians have taken are simple preparations; relatively few households have acted to mitigate losses and reduce injuries.
• Over 80% of California residents have collected information about earthquake preparedness from TV anchors or reporters and, to a lesser extent, radio hosts or reporters (58.6%), schools (54.1%), and friends and relatives (50.6%). 2008 Survey Results, continued
• Intuition has most frequently been used as the basis for developing the content and dissemination of earthquake preparedness and mitigation programs in California; evidence-based knowledge about how to motivate people to get ready has been underutilized.
• Messages on earthquake preparedness and mitigation developed specifically for dissemination in California have low market penetration. 2008 Survey Recommendations
• Disseminate a standardized message to households about earthquake preparedness and mitigation.
• Coordinate the content and dissemination efforts of information providers so that they constitute an ongoing stream of communication across time and targets.
Central Bay Area Coast
Redwood Southern Coast California Standardized Message 2009 Study Led by Dr. Mileti
• Mega-study on public readiness.
• Most people don’t perceive risk to high-consequence, low- probability events.
• They perceive personal safety from nature’s fury and other disaster types.
• And they’re right…most of the time.
Primary Funder –
U.S. Department of Homeland Security 2009 Study Results
Two key factors that drive public action:
• “Received” information from multiple sources, over multiple channels, about actions to take, how to cut losses, and is consistent across messages.
• “Observed” information through clues, watching others take actions. 2009 Study Recommendations
• Don’t try to motivate the public with increased probabilities.
• Convince groups to stop providing unique messages, branded messages work best.
• Provide information from as many different sources as possible.
• Distribute the same information over many and diverse channels.
• It’s better to communicate over time; not just for a day or a week. 2009 Study Didn’t Cover Everything
• Covered process to motivate public readiness
• Didn’t cover content (exactly what to say) and style (how it’s presented)
YIKES! More work to do! California earthquake-preparedness stakeholders now know the process to “motivate” public readiness.
But California earthquake-preparedness stakeholders remain challenged on exactly what to say. CEA-led Research Study
• Retained Harris Interactive (HI) to identify and understand the underlying earthquake- preparedness needs and motivations for California residents.
• Developed a communications template, or map, depicting the decision-making thought process that have provided a blueprint for action.
• Retained Ogilvy Public Relations to assist with creative treatment for research result.
Primary Funders –
California Earthquake Authority (CEA), and;
U.S. Department of Homeland Security grant sought through
California Emergency Management Agency (CalEMA) Harris Interactive Study Foundation
• We know that people will allow themselves to be persuaded with rational arguments about specific and salient features of messages and the functional benefits associated with them, but California residents are more likely to be motivated to act when these arguments tap into their emotions and personal values.
• The most effective messages complete the linkages between the tangible components of the benefit being offered and the person.
• Stated another way – the fundamental premise of strategic positioning is that you “persuade by reason and motivate through emotion.”
Communicate THROUGH the brain TO the heart for ACTION! Harris Interactive Study Design
• Sought to answer questions about the relationships between California residents and issues that are impossible to answer using traditional survey research or focus group techniques.
• Provided an understanding of how consumers link the attributes of the earthquake-preparedness issue with their own functional, emotional and personal values. Harris Interactive Summary Map Harris Interactive Summary Map Harris Interactive Top-Line Statements
• It’s my responsibility to take steps to protect my family or me and prepare for the event of an earthquake.
• Being prepared for an earthquake will help my family or me survive and recover.
• Being prepared for an earthquake is important to keeping my family or me safe and secure.
• Being prepared for an earthquake will help my family or me be ready to react when it happens.
• Taking steps to protect my family or me from an earthquake helps me be in control. Draft Message Summary Statement
• “Preparing for the next damaging earthquake can help you survive and recover.”
• Execution to evoke “responsibility” as appropriate.
• Creative mantra TBD.
You paid how much for that summary statement? I could have told you that! Harris Interactive Summary Map California earthquake-preparedness stakeholders now have a message solution!
Now how do we run with a standardized message? Earthquake Country Alliance (ECA)
• Statewide coalition of earthquake and preparedness organizations and advocates – SCEC, USGS, CalEMA, FEMA, CEA, Red Cross, Caltech, State Farm, and others • Builds upon years of research in science and preparedness • Identifies and integrates resources • Creates and coordinates programs including the Great California ShakeOut www.earthquakecountry.org ECA Plan-for-Programs
ECA already seeking to do what the doctors ordered:
• Standardizing (branding) the message.
• Deriving synergies from coordinating distribution of content.
• Distributing content from many sources and through many channels.
• Sustaining communications over time. ECA Learning to Run with a Branded Message • Introducing information through summary message:
“Preparing for the next damaging earthquake can help you survive and recover.”
• Executing programs to evoke “responsibility” as appropriate.
• Organizing supporting information under three categories: prepare, survive and recover. What do people need to know? (Information in Putting Down Roots publication)
25 ECA Coordinating How to Run with the Branded Message
CEA Marketing ShakeOut CEA Residential Value Program Retrofit Program
Totally Earthquake and Unprepared Tsunami Program Engaging Individuals and Organizations in a Common Vision for Resiliency What is The ShakeOut? The Great California ShakeOut is an annual statewide earthquake drill on the third Thursday of October
Millions of people practice…
Register today at ShakeOut.org! ShakeOut Goals
• Participation of millions of people • Participants practice how to protect themselves: Drop, Cover, and Hold On! • Register at www.ShakeOut.org
• Shift the culture in California about earthquakes • Get people talking with each other about preparedness • Come together around a common vision for a resilient California
• Significant increase in earthquake readiness at all levels • Whole Community: Family, community, school, business, government, and all others… • Build Resiliency: Our capacity to stabilize and recover quickly 2008: The Great Southern California ShakeOut
• November 12-16, 2008
• Regional earthquake drill on Nov. 13 • 5.4 million participants: schools, families, community groups, businesses, etc.
• Concurrent with statewide “Golden Guardian” emergency exercise • 4,000 participants representing more than 100 local, state and federal agencies
• Los Angeles International Earthquake Policy Conference • 300 participants from over 20 countries 2009: The Great California ShakeOut!
• October 15, 2009 • Statewide earthquake drill for all residents, businesses, schools, organizations… everyone! • 6.9 million participated • Now will be annual, on the third Thursday of October • Learn more at ShakeOut.org 2010 ShakeOut: 7.9 million participants
2011 ShakeOut: October 20 @ 10:20 a.m. 5+ million already registered ShakeOut Participation
2009 2010 K-12 Schools 5,024,651 5,498,047 Districts 4,475,522 4,919,027 Private 170,941 197,637
Colleges 994,286 1,274,314
Organizations 882,057 1,124,611
Individuals 15,973 17,420 Survey of Individual/Family Registrants
• 97% of survey respondents said they would participate every year • 51% practiced other aspects of their plan • 66% used drill planning resources on the ShakeOut.org website • 80% tried to get others to participate Survey of 2008 Organizations (1 year later)
If your organization participated in the 2008 Southern California ShakeOut, did it lead to you making improvements in these areas?
• Your Organization’s Disaster Plan, policies or procedures 61% • Reducing your physical exposure to risks 37% • Developing your preparedness to respond 62% • Seeking needed training 33% • Devoting more time to emergency planning 44% • Devoting more funds to emergency planning 12% • Educating staff for disaster prevention 71% • Involving staff more in disaster planning 53% • Encouraging disaster planning at home 64% • It did not lead to making any improvements 4% ShakeOut: Beyond California 470,000
38,000 110,000
Great Guam ShakeOut: 10/21/10 38,000 3,000,000+ New Zealand’s Great West Coast ShakeOut: 9/18/09
8,000 CEA’s Commitment to ShakeOut Support
City Newspaper Web sites Aligned $3 million in CEA Contra Costa contracostatimes.com Fresno fresnobee.com programming to co-promote 2008, Inland Valley dailybulletin.com 2009, and 2010 ShakeOut drills: Lake County record-bee.com ETHNIC WEB SITES Long Beach ETHNICpresstelegram.comPRINT Publication Website Ethnicity PUBLICATIONLos Angeles dailybreeze.comCITY LANGUAGE African • Delivered 125 million paid-media RadioL.A.Market Watts Times Los AngelesRadiowww.lawattstimes.com Stationsla.com California Advocate Fresno EnglishAmerican Bakersfield Los AngelesKERN, KNZRLatimes.com (KBFP-FM Spanish) impressions. African Chico The GlobeGlobe NewspaperMarin KPAY,www.globenewspapers.com SanKFBK,marinj.com Leandro KSTE English American Fresno L.A. SentinelModesto KMJ (KFSOLosmodbee.com Angeles-FM Spanish) English TV Markets Stations African Yo! Youth OutlookMonterey KFI,www.youthoutlook.org KLAC,montereyherald.com KNX (KLVE-FM Spanish), KFWB, • Developed numerous media Los Angeles SingSacramento Tao DailyOakland SF KMRB San(Chinese)KOVR,insidebayarea.com Francisco KMAX, KTXL ChineseAmerican partnerships to co-promote MercedIndia CurrentsTheSan World Francisco OrangeJournal CountyKJSN,www.indiacurrents.com LosKMJKPIX,ocregister.com Angeles KBCW ChineseAsian-Indian Modesto Oroville KFIV, KJSN,orovillemr.com KSTE Carib PressPhilippineLos Angeles News www.caribpress.comSanKCBS, Francisco KCAL EnglishCaribbean participation. Monterey-Salinas-Santa PasadenaCruz KION, KCBS,pasadenastarnews.com KGO (KPRC-FM Spanish) Oxnard/VenturaSing TaoAsian JournalRed - BluffLA KFI,www.singtaousa.com KLAC,Losredbluffdailynews.com Angeles (KLVE-FM Spanish)EnglishChinese Palm SpringsAsian JournalThe Hmong L.A.Redlands Tribune KPSI,www.Asianjournal.com KFIFresnoredlandsdailyfacts.comBilingualFilipino • Distributed 1.8 million pieces of Redding Riverside KQMS, KFBK,pe.com KSTE The InquirerKorea Daily -LA www.inquirer.netLos Angeles KoreanFilipino direct mail. Riverside-San BernardinoSacramentoKDIF, KTDD,sacbee.com KFI, KLAC, (KLVE-FM Spanish) SacramentoKoreanKorea Journal TimesSan - BernardinoSF KFBK,www.koreamjournal.com SanKSTE,sbsun.com Francisco KGO, KSFO KoreanKorean San Diego KGB, KOGO, KFI ImpulsoEl MensajeroSan Diego www.impulsonoticias.comSansignonsandiego.com Francisco SpanishHispanic San FranciscoKGO, KISQ,sfgate.com KKSF, KNEW, KUFX, KSFO, KVTO Alianza Metropolitan News www.alianzanews.com Latino • Delivered 6 million impressions San FranciscoVida En El SanValle Gabriel (Chinese)Fresnosgvtribune.com Spanish through in-store displays. San JoseImpre MediaEGP NewsSan Jose KGO,www.impre.com KKSF,Losmercurynews.com Angeles KNEW, KUFX, KSFOBilingualLatino San Luis Obispo KVEC, KYNS, KMJ La Oferta Santa Cruz www.laoferta.comsantacruzsentinel.comLatino Santa BarbaraIndia West KTMS,San KFI Leandro English Silicon Valley siliconvalley.com Santa MariaSilicon-Lompoc Valley De-Bug KSMX,www.siliconvalleydebug.org KSNI Multi Cali TodaySolano/Napa SanTimesheraldonline.com Jose Vietnamese • Distributed 17,250 preparedness Santa Rosa KGO, KNEW, KSRO, KSTE, KSFO New America MediaStockton www.newamericamedia.orgrecordnet.com Multi Stockton Viet Bao KJOY, OrangeKFBK, KFIV, County KGO, KSTE,Vietnamese KSFO starter kits to consumers. Ukiah ukiahdailyjournal.com Victor ValleyLos Angelese Beez KATJ,www.labeez.org KNX, KFI (KLVE-FM Spanish)Multi Vacaville thereporter.com Visalia-Tulare-Hanford KMJ (KFSO-FM Spanish) Viet Tribune Van Nuys www.viettribune.comdailynews.com Vietnamese • Circulated ECA news releases, Whittier whittierdailynews.com media advisories and PSAs. Woodland dailydemocrat.com CEA Marketing Value Program
Committed $5 million for first ever annualized 2011 CEA marketing program:
• Three flights of ShakeOut style tactics – paid media, direct mail, preparedness starter kits – scheduled to run in June, August and October.
• Generated television and radio news station initiatives.
• Engaging participating insurance company agents. CEA MVP, continued CEA MVP, continued
Corroborating research studies:
• Social science
• Message
• Branding
• Market
• Policyholder
• Economic CEA MVP, continued
Sample integration of ECA and CEA branded messages:
• ECA branded message:
– “Preparing for the next damaging earthquake can help you survive and recover”.
• CEA branded message:
– “We’re here to make sure you’ll always have the strength to rebuild”.
• Personal value execution:
– “Working with our network of leading insurance companies, we provide both claim-paying power and expert service. Together, we’ve created an unshakeable foundation with the strength to match your resolve”. Related CEA Programming
S.637 – The Earthquake Insurance Affordability Act
Problem: Only 1 in 10 homes in California carries earthquake insurance.
Barriers to purchase:
• Perception of risk (social science research).
• Belief that government will “bail me out”.
• Insurance perceived as high cost/high deductible.
S.637– Creates greater value proposition necessary to increase take up:
• “Preparing for the next damaging earthquake can help you survive and recover”.
• Results in approximately $100 million in savings – each year – that the CEA would pass on to policyholders in form of reduced rate and lower deductibles. CEA Residential Retrofit Brace and Bolt Program
Committed $20 million for first-ever statewide residential retrofitting program:
• Facilitated emergency adoption of the first California Building Code for retrofitting existing residential structures.
• Established description of CEA’s Residential Retrofit Program in State Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan.
• Completed RFQ to identify statewide administrator of consumer incentives and contractor training.
• Nearing completion of joint exercise of powers agreement (JPA) with CalEMA.
• Incorporating “Preparing for the next damaging earthquake can help you survive and recover”.
• Supported passage of state legislation to authorize hiring CEA chief mitigation officer. CalEMA / CSSC / CEA “Totally Unprepared” Program
Committed $1 million to joint funding from CalEMA, CSSC and CEA to launch earthquake preparedness program into the social media space:
• Named “Totally Unprepared”.
• “Preparing for the next damaging earthquake can help you survive and recover”.
• (Will be) Producing entertaining videos for viral distribution.
• (Will be) Enticing technology community to produce earthquake preparedness applications.
• (Will be) Hosting stakeholder Web site.
• (Will be) Posting blogs about “Totally Unprepared” videos, apps and Web site. Earthquake & Tsunami Program
• Awareness & Preparedness Week
• Educational Materials
• K-12 Curriculum
• Web site
• Evacuation Route Road Signs
• On Message (TBD): “Preparing for the next damaging earthquake and tsunami can help you survive and recover”. Coming Soon
ECA Plan-for-Programs Message Workshops
• San Diego – May 13, 2011
• Los Angeles – May 17, 2011
• Inland Empire – May 18, 2011
• San Francisco – May 19, 2011
• Sacramento – May 20, 2011