Projected Future Conditions and Sector Background Information for the Deschutes River Basin of Central Oregon March 2011 Page 1 Projected Future Conditions and Sector Background Information for the Deschutes River Basin of Central Oregon Geos Institute Brian R. Barr, Alan R. P. Journet, PhD, and Jessica L. Leonard Support for this project was provided by: Bella Vista Foundation Brainerd Foundations Central Oregon Intergovernmental Council Esri Conservation Grant s Program Headwaters Economics USDA Forest Service Mapped Atmosphere-Plant-Soil-Systems Team 2 TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction 2 Models and their limitations 3 Global climate change projections 5 Climate projections for Deschutes Basin 6 Temperature 8 Precipitation 11 Snowpack and streamflow 15 Vegetation, wildfire, and carbon storage 16 Sector background 20 Natural systems 22 Populations 23 Economics and education 23 Infrastructure 25 Public health 26 Conclusion 28 Literature Cited 29 INTRODUCTION The Deschutes Basin is one of the Deschutes Basin and its residents for largest river basins in Oregon, short- and long-term changes. draining 15,000 square miles and encompassing Crook, Deschutes, and This report is the first step in the Jefferson counties and portions of ClimateWise® process. It provides eight other counties. The basin’s rich baseline information going into a history, culture, and natural resources workshop that will focus on contribute to the quality of life for identifying vulnerable resources and residents. Changes to this region are populations and developing strategies underway due to climate change, to reduce those vulnerabilities and population growth, and shifts in the allow for continued quality of life for economy. The ClimateWise® process residents. By developing cohesive was created to help communities strategies across both natural and develop strategies that increase their socioeconomic systems, this process resilience in the face of inevitable results in increased collaboration and impacts of climate change. communication within the region. Strategies developed in this process Climatic changes are underway across are expected to be ecologically sound, Oregon and are likely to increase in supporting important natural services the coming decades. These changes (e.g., water filtration, flood abatement, are likely to include more intense livestock forage, fisheries, recreational storms and floods, extended drought, opportunity, etc.). increased wildfire, and more heat waves. These will affect native species, Many of the impacts of climate change agriculture, forestry, and human are inevitable due to current levels of health. Communities will need to plan greenhouse gas emissions already in for such changes to prevent the atmosphere. Preparing for these potentially catastrophic consequences impacts to reduce their severity is and/or declines in their quality of life. called “adaptation” (see box below). Preventing even more severe impacts This report provides (1) community by reducing future emissions is called members and decision-makers with “mitigation.” local climate change projections, presented in a way to help make informed, long-term planning MITIGATION: reducing the severity of decisions and (2) background climate change by reducing heat-traping information on socioeconomic and emissions and increasing their removal natural systems, allowing readers to from the atmosphere identify populations and resources that might be most vulnerable to ADAPTATION: reducing the vulnerability impacts. By identifying vulnerabilities, of natural and human systems to the local leaders and experts can develop impacts of climate change sound strategies for preparing the Page 2 MODELS AND THEIR LIMITATIONS Climate change and its associated MIROC (from Japan), and CSIRO (from impacts mean the future is no longer Australia). These models include expected to resemble the past. To specific variables needed to run a determine what conditions we might vegetation model. Discussing the expect in the future, climatologists specific inputs is beyond the scope of created models based on physical, this report, but they include such chemical, and biological processes variables as greenhouse gas that form the earth’s climate system. emissions, air and ocean currents, ice These models vary in their level of and snow cover, plant growth, detail and the assumptions upon particulate matter, and many others which they are constructed. These (Randall et al. 2007). differences stem from the range of Model outputs were converted to local understanding of some of the Earth’s scales using fine-scale, historic data on processes and feedback systems. temperature and precipitation Modeling differences result in patterns. The climate model output variation among the model outputs was applied to the MC1 vegetation and the future scenarios indicated model (Bachelet et al. 2001), which (see insert “Climate Projection vs. provided data on natural vegetation Prediction vs. Scenario” to the right). types that future climatic conditions Most climate models project the might support, biomass consumed by future climate at global scales. For wildfire, and carbon sequestration local managers and policymakers to potential. make decisions, however, they need information about how climate change Climate projection will impact their specific, local area. A model-derived estimate of the The MAPPS (Mapped Atmosphere- future climate. Plant-Soil-System) Team as the USDA Pacific Northwest Research Station Climate prediction or forecast adjusted global model output to a A projection that is highly certain local scale (8 km x 8 km). based on agreement among multiple models. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) uses numerous Scenario models to make global climate projections. The models are developed A coherent and plausible description by different institutions and countries of a possible future state. A scenario and have slightly different inputs or may be developed using climate assumptions. The MAPSS Team chose projections as the basis, but three global climate models that offer additional information, including a range of projections for temperature baseline conditions and decision and precipitation. These three models pathways, is needed to develop a are Hadley (HADCM, from the UK), scenario. Page 3 The utility of the results presented in Projection Certainty this report lies in their ability to help communities envision what the HIGH: conditions and landscape may look Higher temperatures – Greater like in the future, including the concentrations of greenhouse gases trap magnitude and direction of change. more heat. Measured warming tracks Because model outputs vary in their model projections. degree of certainty, they are considered projections rather than Lower snowpack – Higher temperatures predictions (see insert on previous cause a shift from snow to rain at lower page). Some model outputs, such as elevations and cause earlier snow melt at temperature, have greater certainty higher elevations. than others, such as vegetation type (see insert to the left). Shifting distributions of plants & animals – Relationships between species Much of the uncertainty associated distributions and climate are well with model projections arises due to documented. uncertainty in future greenhouse gas emissions. We urge the reader to keep in mind that results are presented MEDIUM: here to explore the types of changes More severe storms – Changes to storm we may see; actual future conditions patterns will be regionally variable. may be different from those depicted in this report. Changes in precipitation – Current models show wide disagreement on Uncertainty associated with precipitation patterns, but the model projections of future conditions projections converge in some locations. should not be used as a reason to delay action on climate change. Wildfire patterns – The relationship between fire and temperature has been The likelihood that future conditions well documented, but other components will resemble historic conditions is also play a role (such as vegetation, below). very low,. Managers and policy makers are encouraged to begin to plan for an era of change, even if the LOW: precise trajectory or rate of such Changes in vegetation – Vegetation change is uncertain. may take decades or centuries to keep pace with changes in climate. Page 4 GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS The IPCC (2007) and the U.S. Global however, provide some of the warmer Change Research Program (2009) projections for the Pacific Northwest. agree that the evidence is Reducing and stabilizing greenhouse “unequivocal”, the Earth’s atmosphere gas (GHG) concentrations at lower and oceans are warming due primarily levels will take decades (even with to human activities (e.g., CO2, immediate, drastic emission methane, other greenhouse gas reductions) due to their long-lived emissions, and deforestation). presence in the atmosphere. Reducing Average global air temperature has emission of these gases is vital to already increased by 1.4° F and is preventing the earth’s climate system expected to increase by 3.5 - 11.5° F from reaching a critical tipping point, within the next century (Figure 1). which may lead to sudden and irreversible climate changes. While The IPCC emission scenario used in mitigation is the ultimate remedy, this assessment was the A2 model planning for the inevitable local (Nakinovic et al. 2000), often referred climatic consequences gives residents to as the “business-as-usual” of the Deschutes Basin