Risk-To-Reward: Mayweather Has Canelo in His Calculations

Risk-to-Reward: Mayweather has Canelo in his calculations Floyd Mayweather Jr.’s brilliant career and shrewd mastery of the risk-to-reward ratio are no coincidence. Mayweather has put himself into history’s pound- for-pound debate and at the top of a pay scale dominated by playmakers, quarterbacks and pitchers because he knows who to fight. And when. Canelo Alvarez on September 14 at Las Vegas’ MGM Grand is mostly a money move, motivated by disappointing pay-per-view numbers for his one-sided decision over Robert Guerrero on May 4. Reports from various media put the PPV buy rate at 875,000, despite a Showtime prediction that it would exceed one million. If accurate, that means Showtime sustained a $12 million loss, according to Forbes. Mayweather got his $32.5 million, but probably not much more than that for his first Showtime fight in a contract worth a possible $250 million. After just one fight in a 30-month deal for as many as six bouts, Showtime and Mayweather are partners, joined at the wallet. Showtime, a CBS subsidiary, wants to recoup losses, probably as fast as possible. And Mayweather, closer to retirement than his prime, wants to max out his income potential. Canelo serves both masters, especially on a date that coincides with Mexico’s celebration of its independence. Canelo might not be Mexico’s best fighter. That honor still belongs to Juan Manuel Marquez. But the 38,000 fans Canelo drew to San Antonio’s Alamodome in April for his victory over Austin Trout make him the biggest draw among Mexican and Mexican-American fans, the demographic that sustains the boxing business. Canelo sells. But September 14, announced by Mayweather on Twitter Wednesday night, isn’t only about money. If dollars were the sole motivation, we already would have seen Mayweather-versus-Manny Pacquiao. We haven’t, for reasons repeated into mind-numbing redundancy. No reason to repeat them here. Fifty-million dollars were said to be the potential payday for each during those futile talks. Fifty-million is said to be Mayweather’s potential for Canelo, whose share has yet to be reported. Why Canelo and not Pacquiao? In calculating risk-to-reward, the guess is that Mayweather has detected flaws that make Canelo easier to beat now than Pacquiao was a couple of years ago. Much has been made of Canelo’s maturing skillset in his unanimous decision over the left-handed Trout. However, the scorecards – 118-109, 116-111 and 115-112 – might have papered over Canelo’s weaknesses with too wide a margin. Yes, he displayed newfound head movement. Yet, he often lunged awkwardly in attempting to land against the quick Trout, who is slick, yet possesses none of Mayweather’s calculated precision. Lunge against Mayweather, and Canelo is bound to feel the right hand that landed at will against Guerrero. Then, there’s the foot speed. Canelo often appears flat- footed, which is what Mayweather said of Guerrero before a bout that is beginning to look like a tune-up. Mayweather has none of the foot speed he had a decade ago, but he still has a lot more than anything displayed by Canelo. Also, there are signs of fatigue. Against Trout, Canelo appeared to tire late in the sixth round and throughout the seventh. The 36-year-old Mayweather is still able to conserve energy with carefully-orchestrated tactics. That could prove problematic for Canelo, especially late in a 12 round bout. A lot has been made about a catch-weight, 152 pounds. It might only be cosmetic. But if there’s an effect, it’s only to Canelo, a junior-middleweight (154) who will have to work a little harder to make the mandatory for Mayweather, a natural welterweight. At opening bell, there’s talk that Canelo could be 170, or 15 to 20 pounds heavier than Mayweather. Maybe, although Mayweather looked to be at least 160 in September 2009 when he easily beat Marquez, who collected an additional $600,000 when Mayweather was two pounds heavier than the contract’s catch- weight, 144. We’ll never know how heavy Mayweather was that night. He refused to step on the scale for HBO not long before entering the ring. But it’s safe to assume Mayweather will be heavy enough on the night of September 14. The risk appears to be Canelo’s power. The heavy-handed red- head is dangerous, especially with effective combinations. A danger-sign for Mayweather was in the facial bruises suffered when he beat Miguel Cotto in May, 2012 at 154 pounds. A key might be Canelo’s age. He’ll turn 23 on July 18. Youth, perhaps, will lead him into harm’s way with awkward lunges into Mayweather’s right hand with bursts of energy that will leave him fatigued. But the victory over Trout included evidence that Canelo is on a learning path toward his prime. How fast? Hard to say. But a maturing Canelo means a more dangerous one. Mayweather’s decision might be as simple as the calendar: Fight Canelo now before he gets better and Mayweather only gets older. A loss to Mayweather in September would hurt, but hardly devastate the young Mexican. A loss is a good lesson and even a yardstick for true greatness in boxing, which more than any sport is about overcoming adversity attached to defeat. Would Muhammad Ali be the legend he is today if he had not come back from a loss to Joe Frazier? Defeat appears to be a chapter Mayweather plans to avoid. Then again, there’s always the possibility of a rematch, or another opportunity for him, Canelo and Showtime to ride the revenue steam. But that’s another story for another day, perhaps waiting to be told on September 14..

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